Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 Theory as a Case of Design: Lessons for Design from the Philosophy of Science Allen S. Lee Virginia Commonwealth University [email protected] Abstract Theories and designs are similar. Because they are similar, design researchers in information systems can learn much from the philosophy of science. Neither large data sets nor papers that generate and statistically test theory are necessary for the publication of contributions to the field. Moreover, the philosophy of pragmatism provides a more solid base than logical positivism from which to launch research about design. Future researchers may focus on two potentially fruitful issues: how designers evaluate a design prior to implementation, and how the automation of design in closed loop systems affect our understanding of both creativity and technology. 1. Introduction The academic discipline of information systems (IS) is enjoying a renaissance of activity in the area of design. There are IS scholars who do design research and those who reflect on it philosophically. A novel and revealing perspective, especially for the latter group, would be one that regards the natural sciences themselves as forms of design, where what they design is theory. In this light, lessons about theory from the philosophy, history, and sociology of science (henceforth, simply the philosophy of science) can be read as lessons about design. In the perspective in which theory is seen as a case of design, a principle that holds for design in general also holds for theory, and any principle that does not hold for theory also does not hold for design in general. Of the many approaches to science, the predominant scientific approach taken by the IS discipline in the United States and Canada has been one that follows a model based on the natural sciences. The natural sciences have been quite successful, but not all models of them have been successful. It is important to distinguish the natural sciences from any model offered to explain them – in the same way that a Jeffrey V. Nickerson Stevens Institute of Technology [email protected] territory is different from any map of it [1]. The particular natural-science model to which the IS discipline has subscribed comes from logical positivism [2]. Significantly, logical positivism is a school of thought that the philosophy of science created, but subsequently abandoned [3, 4]. Schön [5] quotes the following from Bernstein [6]: There is not a single major thesis advanced by either nineteenth-century Positivists or the Vienna Circle that has not been devastatingly criticized when measured by the Positivists’ own standards for philosophical argument. The original formulations of the analyticsynthetic dichotomy and the verifiability criterion of meaning have been abandoned. It has been effectively shown that the Positivists’ understanding of the natural sciences and the formal disciplines is grossly oversimplified. Whatever one’s final judgment about the current disputes in the post-empiricist philosophy and history of science … there is rational agreement about the inadequacy of the original Positivist understanding of science, knowledge and meaning. Despite this, researchers, editors, and reviewers in North American-dominated journals and conferences in the IS discipline have adhered to major aspects of positivism, including its oversimplified natural-science model of social science, and have never embraced alternative approaches as they have embraced positivism. All in all, this has not been beneficial to the IS discipline and there is no reason for design research to follow the same path. What are some lessons offered by the philosophy of science that can benefit the burgeoning of design research in the IS discipline? We select three lessons that are particularly relevant to design research. We present them as actionable guidelines not only for design researchers, but also for editors and reviewers who assess design research. 978-0-7695-3869-3/10 $26.00 © 2010 IEEE 1 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 2. The data lesson Perhaps the most fundamental but also the most significant lesson from the philosophy of science is about the amount of data that needs to be collected. This lesson has two parts. First, a larger sample size may very well be helpful in the task of statistical hypothesis testing, but for the very different task of theory testing, a larger number of observations supportive of a theory do not provide any better assurance that the theory is true [7, 8]. Second, in the task of theory testing, a single observation contradicting a theory is logically sufficient to reject it; this is a straightforward application of the logic of modus tollens (examined in greater detail below, in the discussion on pragmatism), whose origin is in ancient Greek philosophy (not Karl Popper) and whose validity has never been disputed. Followers of the positivist model of science have erred by ignoring this lesson. However, if design researchers were to heed this lesson, they would be freed from the supposition that large quantities of data are always necessary and beneficial and they could focus instead on collecting just a sufficient amount of data for a specific purpose. The rationale for this lesson follows. A theory, in the natural sciences, is instantiated in an experiment. Based on observations of the experiment’s results, an assessment of the theory is made. The theory is either “rejected as true” or “not rejected as true.” However, a theory that is “not rejected as true” is not the same as a theory that is accepted as true. Furthermore, no matter how many instances are observed in which a theory holds, they may never serve as justification for accepting the theory as true, lest the fallacy of affirming the consequent be committed. And while observations may never establish a theory to be true, the logic of modus tollens tells us that a single observation contradicting a theory is logically sufficient to reject it. By analogy to natural-science research, we apply this rationale to design research as follows. A design, in design research, is instantiated in an artifact. Based on observations of the artifact’s performance, an assessment of the design is made. The design is assessed either “to work” or “not to work.” However, a design that is assessed “to work” is not the same as a design that is proven. Furthermore, no matter how many instances are observed in which a design works, they may never serve as justification for accepting the design as proven, lest the fallacy of affirming the consequent be committed. And while observations may never establish a design as proven, the logic of modus tollens tells us that a single observation showing that a design does not work is logically sufficient to reject it. Related to this rationale are two major tenets in the philosophy of science – Hume’s problem of induction [9] and Goodman’s new riddle of induction [10]. Both show that statements of particulars can never verify a general statement. (A “general statement” can be a theory or a design. “Statements of particulars” can be statements that describe observations made in a controlled experiment or in what Hevner, March, Ram, and Park call “functional testing” and “structural testing.” [11]) Hume pointed out that induction for deriving a general statement from statements of particulars is a procedure that has never been justified and that, furthermore, any attempt to justify it would only lead to in an infinite regress of attempts. Hume’s problem of induction has not been solved: “Philosophers have responded to the problem of induction in many different ways… None of the many suggestions is widely accepted as correct” [12]. Goodman demonstrated that different, contradictory general statements can always be derived from the same statements of particulars. Furthermore, if one reasons inductively, any increase in the number of statements of particulars would have the dubious effect of seemingly further strengthening each one of the contradictory general statements. An efficient strategy for assessing a theory or design follows from the lesson that a single observation is logically sufficient to reject it and, at the same time, favorable observations, no matter how numerous, may never verify it as true or proven. The strategy is for a researcher to eschew the random collection of large quantities of data and instead assess the performance of the design or theory under a single, well specified set of circumstances deliberately sought out to be challenging to it. The more challenging the empirical assessment that a theory or design survives, the more credible the theory or design can be. Thus, instead of testing in favorable circumstances, the investigator ideally seeks situations unfavorable to the occurrence of the anticipated or predicted results, for these situations can be more informative. Also worth mentioning is a caveat contained in what we have termed the “logical sufficiency” of a single observation to reject a theory or design. Logical sufficiency is not the same as operational sufficiency. If a researcher uses a single observation unfavorable to a theory or design to reject it, the observation must first be accepted as accurate. If there is any serious doubt about its accuracy, a second or even third experiment or artifact also yielding an unfavorable observation would be helpful. However, even if this were the case, this would still be a far cry from the requirement in statistical hypothesis testing that there be, say, a minimum of 30 observations (actually, data points) in a sample. Furthermore, the additional observations 2 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 would not (and, from the perspective of formal logic, may not) serve the purpose of somehow providing greater assurance that the theory or design is true, but would serve the very different purpose of establishing the accuracy of the observation with which the theory or design is rejected. Statistical hypothesis testing (which can address the latter purpose) is not theory testing (which pertains to the former purpose). 3. The publishing lesson Another basic lesson of great significance from the philosophy of science is that a theory, to be considered worthy of publication, need not be presented with data testing it and need not be presented in the form of a single refereed journal article. A case of this is Einstein’s general theory of relativity. In 1915, Einstein submitted and presented his general theory of relativity, in the form of four papers, to the Prussian Academy of Science [13]. According to the theory, a massive object bends a ray of light passing close to it. Thus light that is emitted by a star and passes close to the sun would have its path deflected. Such a deflection, however, would hardly be visible from the earth because of how bright the sun is. Eddington, an astronomer, solved this problem by making observations during a solar eclipse. “Eddington took a team to the island of Principe off Africa,” where it was known that a solar eclipse would be visible in 1919. They “were able to make measurements sufficient to support Einstein's theory. In particular they were able to rule out Newton's theory of gravity, which did predict a bending, but only of half the magnitude” [14]. Thus the data testing Einstein’s theory was only offered four years after its publication. This case also provides two related lessons. The first one is that both the formulation and testing of a theory need not be completed by the same researcher(s). The work of an additional researcher may very well be required. The second one is that statistical inference and statistical sampling need not be present in theory-building/theory-testing research, even if the research is quantitative. Einstein developed no statistical model and Eddington performed no statistical inference. Both would have been puzzled if asked, “what sample size did you use?” We apply this lesson and the two related lessons to design research as follows. The historical case, concerning Einstein and Eddington and involving theory as an instance of design, is sufficient to render invalid, for design research overall, any general requirements that 1) a design, to be considered worthy of publication, must be presented with data assessing it and be presented in the form of a single refereed journal article, 2) both the formulation and assessing of a design must be presented in a single, refereed journal article and be completed by the same researcher(s), and 3) statistical inference and statistical sampling must be employed. Because the publishing lesson and two related lessons stem from the natural sciences, any researcher who considers the natural sciences to provide the model for how research should be done must accept this conclusion. These lessons deserve the attention of editors and reviewers of design-research submissions to journals and conferences. 4. The pragmatism lesson The last lesson that we mention is that design research in information systems should consider subscribing to the philosophy of pragmatism as an alternative to the philosophy of logical positivism. As already mentioned, logical positivism has been abandoned by the very school of thought that created it – the philosophy of science. Thus the philosophy of logical positivism may not serve as a philosophy of design. The philosophy of pragmatism, however, has of late become popular in the history of science [15-17] and has features that make it particularly relevant to design research. The Oxford English Dictionary defines pragmatism as “the doctrine that an idea can be understood in terms of its practical consequences; hence, the assessment of the truth or validity of a concept or hypothesis according to the rightness or usefulness of its practical consequences” [18]. Compared to logical positivism, it provides a fresh perspective in at least five ways First, the knowledge examined by pragmatism includes not only theories crafted by scientists, but also knowledge held by people in general, including the managers, executives, and other practitioners constituting the audience to whom IS researchers want their research to be relevant. Such knowledge can be a belief, idea, concept, plan, decision, policy, design, etc. Second, as its name implies, pragmatism emphasizes the practical and the consequential, rather than the theoretical. This is altogether compatible with design research. Third, pragmatism does not presume that the knowledge developed and approved by university researchers is primary and, in comparison, the knowledge used by practitioners is an application of the former and therefore secondary. Pragmatism leaves room for what IS researchers and others call “applied research,” but pragmatism does not confine the knowledge which practitioners may suitably and 3 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 successfully use to be only “applied research.” Pragmatism harbors no preconception that the knowledge developed and approved by university researchers is necessarily better than other forms of knowledge such as the tacit and even subjective knowledge acquired by experts over years of experience. Fourth, pragmatism does not regard the natural sciences as the model for the social sciences, or the sciences of the natural [19] as the model for the sciences of the artificial. Thus, pragmatism frees researchers from being bound to the natural and social sciences as the starting point, baseline, or model for how design research should be performed and assessed. And fifth and perhaps most significant, the practical consequences of interest to pragmatism include not only truthfulness (e.g., whether the predictions or other observational consequences of a scientific theory are upheld by actual observations), but also the usefulness and moral rightness of a belief, idea, concept, plan, decision, policy, design, etc. Pragmatism elevates or restores usefulness and moral rightness to the same level of importance as truthfulness. In other words, in IS research informed by pragmatism, truthfulness (of a theory or any other concept or belief) does not eclipse usefulness or moral rightness in importance as a criterion for assessing whether research is good. For an example that illustrates pragmatism, we turn to something that IS researchers are already familiar with. It is research as performed in the natural sciences and in those other disciplines that model themselves on the natural sciences. They can be viewed as an instantiation of pragmatism, albeit in a “limiting case” sort of way. The natural and social sciences are an instantiation of pragmatism in which design takes the form of theory and the knower is the scientific researcher working on the theory. For this person, pragmatism’s “practical consequences” would be what happens upon the researcher’s application of a theory in a laboratory, field, organization, population, or other empirical setting. Then, observations of what happens (the consequences) would provide justification for rejecting or not rejecting the theory. And just as the reasoning in the natural sciences (and also in those other disciplines that model themselves on the natural sciences) employs modus tollens, it happens that reasoning in pragmatism in general also employs modus tollens. Modus tollens is the form of the syllogism in which the major premise is “if p, then q,” the minor premise is “not q,” and the conclusion is “therefore, not p.” In the natural sciences and those disciplines that model themselves on the natural sciences, p is the theory to be tested and q is a prediction or other “observational consequence” of the theory when applied in a particular setting. In discussing pragmatism, Hilpinen has stated that, in the reasoning of pragmatism in general (i.e., not just the limiting case where it is the reasoning used in the task of testing a theory in the natural and social sciences), p can be a proposition describing an “intellectual conception,” “action,” or “experimental condition,” and q can describe one or more of p’s “practical consequences,” such as “an observable phenomenon or a ‘sensible effect.’ ”[20]. And in subscribing to modus tollens and being proscribed from committing the fallacy of affirming the consequent, pragmatism also embraces the logic, already mentioned, that observations consistent with a theory (or now, design) may never verify it as true or proven, but a single observation is logically sufficient to reject it. Thus, researchers already familiar with the reasoning used in the natural sciences or in those disciplines that model themselves on the natural sciences will find something familiar in the reasoning used in pragmatism. There are at least two major benefits for design research that adopts the philosophy of pragmatism in place of the philosophy of logical positivism. One major benefit, already mentioned but worth emphasizing, is that pragmatism does not restrict p to be a scientific theory. The proposition p can be any belief, idea, concept, plan, decision, policy, design, etc. Likewise, pragmatism does not restrict q to be the predictions or other observational consequences of a theory; pragmatism expands the domain of q to include consequences which follow from the given belief, idea, concept, plan, decision, policy, or design. Furthermore, the consequences can be assessed for not only their truthfulness, but also their usefulness and moral rightness. In not being as restrictive as logical positivism, pragmatism enjoys a better fit with design research and is better suited than logical positivism to serve as a philosophy of design. Another major benefit of subscribing to the philosophy of pragmatism is that, along with recent philosophy of science, it recognizes that the individual researcher and the research community are important for playing constructive and indispensable roles in the research process. This stands in contrast to logical positivism, which presumes that a researcher’s values and social context can only contaminate the subject matter and bias the research results. Logical positivism’s position is that, ideally, a researcher’s values and social context should be eliminated from the research process, or at least their influence should be minimized and “controlled.” In the philosophy of science, Thomas Kuhn recognizes that reasoning and data, alone, are 4 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 insufficient to drive the engine of science and that the influence of individuals and groups is also required: Some of the principles deployed in my explanation of science are irreducibly sociological, at least at this time. In particular, confronted with the problem of theory-choice, the structure of my response runs roughly as follows: take a group of the ablest available people with the most appropriate motivation; train them in some science and in the specialties relevant to the choice at hand; imbue them with the value system, the ideology, current in their discipline (and to a great extent in other scientific fields as well); and finally, let them make the choice. If that technique does not account for scientific development as we know it, then no other will. ([21], emphasis added) Charles S. Peirce, the founder of pragmatism, takes a position that foreshadows Kuhn’s position. This is evident in the following commentary on Peirce: …in [Peirce’s] theory of truth, one means by truth of belief that if a certain operation is the subject of continuous scientific inquiry by the community of investigators, assent to the belief would increase and dissent decrease “in the long run.” ... Peirce's concept of the community of sign users and inquirers also has social and moral relevance, for it is nothing less than the ideal of rational democracy. ([22], emphasis added) A ramification for design research is that good research requires not only reasoning and data, but also the social infrastructure of a research community. Doctoral education should not focus on procedures of reasoning and data to the exclusion of the social development that doctoral students also need in order to become full members of the research community. To speak the language and to practice the customs of the natives who call themselves “design researchers” would require the acquisition of much tacit knowledge, available only through socialization. A related ramification is that, insofar as pragmatic knowledge emerges from what is referred to (above) as a “community of investigators,” pragmatism does not segregate practitioners and researchers from each other. How might this be achieved? Professions other than business provide a model. In law, it is considered normal and healthy for there to be an interchange of lawyers between the university setting and the field setting, where professors become, for instance, full- fledged judges and practicing lawyers become fullfledged professors. Furthermore, the research publications of law schools, “law reviews,” publish articles written by professors as well as by practicing lawyers. In medicine and architecture, there is the same interchange. In each of these three professions, the result is that the practicing professionals in the field and the researchers in the university together constitute an instance of Peirce’s “community of investigators,” who speak the same language and practice the same customs. These three professions engage in design, and we note that the designs that emerge from the legal, medical, or architectural community of inquirers are considered both rigorous and relevant. 5. Discussion and final thoughts We have shown that there is a strong parallel between design and what positivist researchers have called theory. Because of this strong parallel, those engaged in design research can learn three lessons from the philosophy of science. First, large data sets, important for certain kinds of statistical testing, are not necessary for many aspects of the scientific process. This observation frees design researchers from a fixation on sample size, and allows them to look closely at a single phenomenon, just as many natural scientists do. Next, theory and testing do not have to appear concurrently in an article. Physics and the other natural sciences abound with instances of specialization, with one set of researchers generating theories and another set testing them. This lesson will ring true to information systems designers: it can be difficult to implement a design for the purpose of statistically testing it, due to the expense and time related to software engineering. For example, a new design of a stock exchange calls for an enormous development effort. Designers in practice do not resort to statistical testing as a precondition to the acceptance of a design, so it makes little sense for the information systems field to insist that any design be simultaneously tested statistically as a precondition of publication. In the third lesson, we pointed out that naturalscience research is a pragmatic endeavor. Design is also a pragmatic endeavor: designs are meant to be used, and they acquire significance through their use. This third lesson can be applied to this paper itself: pragmatically speaking, the value of this paper will stem from its consequences. Thus, we suggest two specific topics for future design research, one focused on design by humans, the second on design by machines. 5 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 We pointed out that neither scientists nor engineers are in a position to immediately test their ideas. If a design cannot be tested statistically at the time of its origin, what should designers use as criteria for advancing a design to the implementation stage? Many researchers think that both scientists and designers work on a principle of simplicity: this idea was well-articulated by Occam, and has more modern instantiations in the philosophy of science [23]. Increasingly, scientists are using Bayesian model comparison, which provides a computational method for biasing toward simple versus complex theories [2426]. In design, there is a similar sense of aesthetics [27]. In software design in particular, it has been shown that programmers make many judgments on the basis of a minimalist aesthetic [28-31]. There may be situations in which this aesthetic leads us to overlook better alternatives. That is, good ideas can be missed when we make decisions based purely on simplicity. In the field of biology, it may be a mistake to assume that minimal theories are the best, because evolution can easily produce suboptimal mechanisms in nature [32]. DNA, for example, was initially ignored because explanations based on proteins seemed simpler at the time [33]. Recently, a similar argument has been made in the field of cognitive science. While Chomsky has claimed that the brain is an optimized machine for processing language [34], Marcus has argued that the brain is far from optimal, a kluge formed by a series of historical accidents [35]. Indeed, the same way biological mechanisms are sometimes suboptimal, social mechanisms may also be suboptimal, and thus, in modeling institutions, the simplest hypothesis may not necessarily be the most accurate. These ideas suggest a research program. Designers of all stripes are trained to optimize for simplicity. Is this always for the best? Is there an alternative way to assess designs prior to implementation? These questions are potentially productive ones for the design researcher, and they relate to a foundational question of the sciences of the artificial: should we design optimal machines for the task, and let humans adapt to machines, or should we design machines to adapt to the sometimes suboptimal characteristics of humans and institutions? While designers often claim they pay attention to the user, the technology that permeates a typical call center is an existence proof of design that mechanizes human activity. These questions might be answered both by analysis of designers in the field, as well as with experiments in which designers are cued to use different evaluation heuristics. Techniques for eliciting and understanding expertise, such as those practiced by Simon and others [36, 37], might be applied to information systems design activity. While this first direction for research focuses on the criteria used by the human designer, there is another potential direction, focused on the possibility of automatic design. In our discussion of pragmatism, we pointed out that many philosophy of science researchers agree that theories are judged with respect to their consequences. Thus, the provenance of a theory is much less important than the eventual effect the theory has. In other words, it doesn't really matter where the theory comes from as long as it has important consequences. This is in stark contrast to the opinions of many academics who believe that theories need to be derived from previous theories (the “literature”) in order to be considered worthy of testing. There is a valid reason for desiring theories to be justified based on provenance: with a plethora of possible theories, the community wishes to optimize the available time for testing and peer reviewing the results. But, in the modern age, new ways of generating and testing theories become possible. Peirce argued that theories are generated in a process called abduction that may take the form of sudden insight [38]. More recently, people have attempted to automate the abductive process [39]. Then, theories can be generated automatically. In recent experiments, scientists have shown that an algorithm can generate random theories, combine them with other theories, test, and refine the theories, in an entirely automated closed loop that produces candidate theories for human evaluation [40, 41]. The program has been able to find theories that have been found before by humans, but has also found new theories, yet to be discovered by humans. Thus, the provenance of the theory is of little import: in this case, theories began in a random manner. In the field of design, there have been parallel investigations. Methods such as genetic algorithms have been used to find new forms with functions much improved over previous humanly generated designs [42-45]. This work challenges our suppositions about the roots of creativity: is randomness and combination as important as expertise? Can we use crowds of individuals to design through combination [46]? Can we use crowds of computers? And what of the aesthetics that humans use: do we discover better or worse forms if we automate the application of aesthetics? Automation has always been a province of information systems research. Much of this work, however, has addressed issues of cost reduction and productivity, avoiding the larger issue of automation's societal consequences. Simon's vision for the sciences 6 Proceedings of the 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2010 of the artificial is still exciting to read today [19]. But we have made progress since then in the social sciences. For example, we understand much more about identity and embeddedness [47, 48], about the ways we function in social networks [49], and we are beginning to understand the role of electronic mediation in such networks. Design, as with science, is a process that affects society. Design researchers in the field of information systems can and should focus on the possibilities and pitfalls of design automation. The fruits from the study of human and automated design processes will be of interest not just to the information systems community, but to all in the cognitive and computational communities that are intent on modeling human cognition and understanding the roots of individual and social creativity. Thus, by focusing on design in a pragmatic fashion, information systems researchers may find a vein of work that renews the field by addressing timely issues with societal consequences. Acknowledgment This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IIS0855995. References [1] Korzybski, A., Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics, Institute of General Semantics, 1994. [2] Ayer, A. J. (ed.), Logical Positivism, New York: Free Press, 1959, pp. 60-81. 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