Prince George Timber Supply Area
Timber Supply Review
(PG TSA TSR V)
Presentation to Prince George City Council
June 13, 2016
[email protected]
DJA
DPG
DVA
Current AAC: PG TSA
• 12.5 million m3/year with a 3.5 million m3/yr partition for
non-pine, of which 850,000 m3/yr from Sx leading
stands, a 160,000 m3/ yr partition for deciduous leading
stands , and a 23,000 m3/yr partition for Cw- leading
within the ICH in the PG District
Harvest Performance
• Average annual billed harvest since 2002 has been
~9million cubic metres per year with the average over
the past 5 years being ~ 10 million m3/yr.
• Since 2010 there has been a significant shift from Prince
George and Vanderhoof into southern Fort St. James.
Timber Supply Review Program and
Allowable Annual Cut
• Examine relevant land use and forest
management practices, public and First Nation’s
input, and economic, environmental and social
factors.
• Provides the information needed to set the
Allowable Annual Cut (AAC) for the next ten
years.
• Identify information to be improved for future
timber supply reviews.
Timber Supply Review Program and
Allowable Annual Cut
• AAC is the maximum volume of wood available
for harvest from an area each year.
• Pursuant to Section 8 of the Forest Act.
determining AAC’s is the responsibility of the
Chief Forester - Ministry of Forests, Lands and
Natural Resource Operations



Independent statutory decision maker
Must not be fettered or allow themselves to
be fettered
Must not exceed the scope of authority
provided in legislation (e.g. can determine an
AAC but can not establish land use
objectives).
6
•
AAC determination is a professional
judgement, not a calculation
•
AACs should reflect current practices and
are not intended to drive management
objectives
•
AACs are determined frequently to
ensure they incorporate up to date
information and knowledge
7
Information
Collection &
Data Package
Public and
Stakeholder
Review
60 Day
Reviews
Discussion Paper
(key analysis results)
Public and
Stakeholder
Review
AAC
Determination
and Rationale
April 2014
April 2015
April 2016
Late Fall 2016


The Chief Forester must determine AACs for
Timber Supply Areas (TSAs) and Tree Farm
Licences (TFLs) every 10 years considering:
The rate of timber production taking into account:
 Composition of the forest and the expected rate of
growth
 Expected time to re-establish a forest after harvest
 Utilization and decay, waste and breakage
 Other IRM objectives



The short and long term implications from
alternative rates of harvest
Abnormal insect infestations
Social and economic objectives of the Crown
Timber supply analysis uses a computer
simulation model that projects the state of
the forest into the future, given a set of
assumptions about harvesting, forest
management, and stand growth.
11






Forest Definition
Slope & Elevation
Distance
Low volume stands and non-merchantable
timber types
Terrain Stability
Areas reserved for the management of other
resource values
6/3/2016
12
Process
13
•
•
•
Intersect
historic
cutblock layer
Analyze
distribution of
values
Assign
threshold and
assess impact
Pine
Salvage
Cutting
permits
Non
salvage
Cutting
permits
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cultural heritage
Community watersheds
Range lands
Old growth management
Sensitive soils
Riparian habitat
Biodiversity
Identified wildlife
Ungulate winter range
The original slide provided by the presenter contains a video, which is available for viewing by the City of
Prince George Legislative Service Division (5th Floor, City Hall). The video will also be available for viewing
during the live stream webcast of the Council meeting.
Prince George TSA
Crown Forest (Blue)
and Timber
Harvesting Land
Base (green)
Mountain Pine Beetle Attacked Pine Stands
Timber Supply Model
21
Timber Supply Analysis 101
Harvest forecast
22
Timber Supply 101 –
Uncertainty in Forecasting
Prince George TSA Context - 2010
Base case composition (years 1 -20)
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1
2
3
4
5
Green Volume
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Salvageable Volume
Fibre bi-catch
Alternative Harvest Flows
13,000,000
Comparison of current TSR base case with alternative harvest flows
12,000,000
11,000,000
10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2010
2020
2030
Salvage Focus
2040
2050
Balsam Partition
2060
2070
MNDY
2080
2090
Step down
2100
Base case
2110
2120
Thank you