Nigerian Youth at Risk
Young people aged 15 to 24 constitute about two fifths of Africa’s working-age population (15 to 64
years) and they account for three fifths of total unemployment on the continent. i In Sub-Saharan Africa
alone, this age group will grow by 225 million people by the middle of the century. Their share of the
population of working age will only marginally decline to about one third by 2050. One of the
countries strongly affected by a growing youth bulge is Nigeria. One quarter of the youth surplus SubSaharan Africa will face by 2050 will be accounted for by Nigeria alone. The population aged 15 to 24
will grow continuously from about 31 million currently to 86 million by 2050, and the Nigerian
population will remain one of the youngest in the world with a median age of twenty-one at midcentury. By that point, the median age in the United States will be twenty years higher. Nigeria with its
160 million inhabitants is the seventh most populous country in the world. According to the United
Nations Population Division, the Nigerian population will have more than doubled to 440 million by
2050 and will then be the third most populous nation after India and China.ii
Growing Labor Force
Projected number of inhabitants according to age groups in Nigeria in different years. (Data
source: UNDESA [2013]: World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision)
This ever-growing population will need jobs, and it will be a challenge to create enough work for them,
especially for the highly vulnerable group of the young. To date the labor market has not been very
successful at absorbing the younger generation. The labor force participation rate (LFPR) of 15 to 24
year olds is very low (38 percent in 2012), whereas that of the population aged 25 to 54 is 66 percent
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(2012).iii Even considering that some of the young are still in education and therefore are not available
for work, this share is very low. The low LFPR of youth indicates that a huge part of this generation can
be categorized as discouraged job seekers. What is more, those who are active on the labor market at
all are at risk of becoming unemployed or of not earning sufficient money. According to the Nigerian
National Bureau of Statistics, in 2010 one fifth of the active labor force was unemployed, whereas
more than one third of those aged 15 to 24 were.iv Eighty-three percent of young people in
employment were living on less than two US dollars a day in 2004, while for those aged 25 or older the
share was five percentage points lower.v These data indicate that, as in other African countries, youth
are subject to discrimination on the Nigerian labor market. If the share of the young not participating
in the labor force due to a lack of perspective remains constant, the sheer number of idle workforce in
that age group will constantly grow and this is likely to produce tensions. According to the African
Economic Outlook 2012, mass youth unemployment has already contributed to criminality and
violence in Nigeria.vi
There are two main reasons for the Nigerian employment crisis. They lie in the country’s economic
structure as well as in a labor force unprepared for today’s labor market and therefore serving as a
barrier to future job creation.
Nigeria’s Economic Structure
Between 2001 and 2010 average annual GDP growth leveled at 6 percent, surpassing the Sub-Saharan
average of 5 percent.vii Nigeria is a resource-based economy. According to the Central Intelligence
Agency, tax revenues from the oil sector account for approximately 80 percent of total budgetary
revenues and provide 95 percent of foreign exchange earnings.viii In 2011, oil rents contributed 33
percent to GDP.ix The sector in general is not very labor intensive, and as Nigeria only barely refines its
main export commodity, the industry has created fewer jobs than it could have done. x Furthermore, the
focus on crude oil production forces the country to import refined petroleum.xi Oil-induced growth has
left non-oil sectors of the economy underdeveloped, especially labor-intensive manufacturing and
agriculture.xii Owing to infrastructural constraints, these sectors have not been successful in improving
competitiveness and productivity and therefore have not been able to create more jobs.xiii The GDP
share of manufacturing in 2006xiv was 2.6 percent—much lower than the 12.1 percentage average in
Sub-Saharan Africa and far below the developing countries of East Asia and the Pacific with a GDP
average contribution of 32 percent.xv Although agriculture has been Nigeria’s non-oil growth engine in
recent years, it lacks investment and innovation, making it an underperformer.xvi Its share of GDP was
33 percent in 2007.xvii Agricultural growth resulted mainly from increased land use but not from
increases in productivity.xviii As with oil, the country needs to net-import food products in order to feed
the population.xix
2
Oil Dominating
Percentage share of different sectors of the economy in the gross domestic product in 2007 in
Nigeria. (Data Source: The World Bank (2013): World Development Indicators)
Nigeria has made efforts to diversify its economy. All sectors but the oil industry grew in the period
between 2001 and 2007.xx According to the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, the highest growth
rates in 2011 and 2012 were seen in the telecommunications and postal sectors, with real GDP growth
of more than 30 percent in both years.xxi These high rates suggest the initiation of a structural
transformation towards the services sector, which in 2007 made up 27 percent of GDP. However, the
transformation has not softened pressure on the labor market. Growth in sectors outside the oil
economy has not led to sufficient job creation.xxii Private investment has gone to capital-intensive
rather than employment-intensive industries, namely oil and gas as well as telecommunications.xxiii
According to the African Development Bank Group, this is typical for the African continent.xxiv
Education, Employability, and Further Job Creation
As shown, young people have been strongly affected by the African employment crisis. The current
educational system as such does not guarantee employability. Those who attain education do not
acquire the skills needed on the labor market.xxv According to employer surveys, African tertiary
graduates lack problem-solving ability, business understanding, computer use, and communications
skills.xxvi Low employability is also the result of an increased demand for more skilled labor induced by
technological change.xxvii What is more, a lack of human capital with adequate education will impede
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further job creation. In order to increase productivity and to attract direct foreign investment, the
country needs a skilled workforce.xxviii
Formally Fair Attainments
Composition of the Nigerian population (2010) according to sex, age groups and educational
attainments. (Data source: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [2007])
Yet Nigeria’s commitment to education has been very volatile in the past. Especially in recent years,
the situation has gotten worse. The share of out-of-school children increased from around 35 percent
to more than 40 percent between 2000 and 2010. Among all the countries assessed by UNESCO,
Nigeria in 2010 was in first place regarding the absolute number and the rate of children not attending
school, amounting to 10.5 million.xxix According to the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA), in 2010 more than 20 percent of Nigerians aged 15 to 24 had not received any
education at all and nearly as many had received only primary education. Although the share of people
who have received secondary education in this age group is already quite high (55 percent), too large a
share of the young is insufficiently educated for the labor market.xxx Millions of young people annually
enter the labor force with neither the formal nor the actual requirements to perform skilled jobs. The
country is therefore losing potential foreign investors, who could bring new knowledge and support
Nigeria in diversifying the economy and entering new markets, which could, in turn, create jobs.xxxi
With the introduction of a skills acquisition and enterprise development program as well as a business
plan competition, Nigeria has already started to take action.xxxii But as the absolute number of young
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people is continuously on the rise, it is important to focus more decisively on education and skills
development.
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Endnotes
i
Page, J. (2012), Youth, Jobs, and Structural Change: Confronting Africa's "Employment Problem", Working Paper
Series, Tunis.
ii
All projections refer to the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat (2012), World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. (Medium Variant)
iii
International Labour Organization (2011), Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM): Seventh Edition.
iv
National Bureau of Statistics (2013), Economic Outlook for the Nigerian Economy (2013-2016).
v
International Labour Organization (2011), Key Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM): Seventh Edition.
vi
African Development Bank Group, OECD, UNDP and UNECA (2012), Nigeria 2012.
vii
Own calculations based on The World Bank (2013), World DataBank: World Development Indicators.
viii
Central Intelligence Agency, Nigeria, The World Fact Book.
ix
The World Bank (2013), World DataBank: World Development Indicators.
x
Agunwamba, A., Bloom, D., Friedman, A., Ozolins, M., Rosenberg, L., Steven, D. and Weston, M., Nigeria: The
Next Generation: Literature Review.
xi
Kröhnert, S., Müller, S., Sievers, F. and Klingholz, R. (2012), Five Lions Poised to Leap?: The Economic and
Demographic Potential of Africa|s Emerging Nations, Nürnberg, Berlin.
xii
The World Bank and Department for International Development (2005), “Country Partnership Strategy for the
Federal Republic of Nigeria (2005-2009)”, available at:
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLICUS/Resources/Nigeria_CPS.pdf.
xiii
Treichel, V. (2010), “Employment and Growth in Nigeria”, in Treichel, V. (Ed.), Putting Nigeria to work: A
strategy for employment and growth, World Bank, Washington, D.C, pp. 9–60.
xiv
Latest data available.
xv
The World Bank (2013), World DataBank: World Development Indicators. Country aggregates: Sub-Saharan
Africa (all income levels); East Asia and Pacific (developing only)
xvi
UNDP (2009), Human Development Report Nigeria 2008-2009: Achieving Growth With Equity, Abuja.
xvii
The World Bank (2013), World DataBank: World Development Indicators.
xviii
UNDP (2009), Human Development Report Nigeria 2008-2009: Achieving Growth With Equity, Abuja.
xix
Agunwamba, A., Bloom, D., Friedman, A., Ozolins, M., Rosenberg, L., Steven, D. and Weston, M., Nigeria: The
Next Generation: Literature Review.
xx
UNDP (2009), Human Development Report Nigeria 2008-2009: Achieving Growth With Equity, Abuja.
xxi
National Bureau of Statistics (2010), National Manpower Stock and Employment Generation Survey: Houshold
and Micro Enterprise (Informal Sector).
xxii
Treichel, V. (2010), “Employment and Growth in Nigeria”, in Treichel, V. (Ed.), Putting Nigeria to work: A
strategy for employment and growth, World Bank, Washington, D.C, pp. 9–60.
xxiii
Treichel, V. (2010), “Employment and Growth in Nigeria”, in Treichel, V. (Ed.), Putting Nigeria to work: A
strategy for employment and growth, World Bank, Washington, D.C, pp. 9–60.
xxiv
Page, J. (2012), Youth, Jobs, and Structural Change: Confronting Africa's "Employment Problem", Working
Paper Series, Tunis.
xxv
African Development Bank Group (2011), Enhancing Capacity for Youth Employment in Africa: Some Emerging
Lessons, Africa Capacity Development Brief.
xxvi
The World Bank (2007), Expanding the Possible in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Tertiary Institutions Can Increase
Growth and Competitiveness, Washington, D.C.
xxvii
Garcia, M. and Farès, J. (2008), “Working in Bad Jobs or Not Working at All”, in Garcia, M. and Farès, J. (Eds.),
Youth in Africa's Labor Market, World Bank, Washington, D.C., pp. 49–66.
xxviii
Ansu, Y. and Tan, J.-P. (2011), “Skills Development for Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pragmatic
Perspective”, in Noman, A. (Ed.), Good growth and governance in Africa: Rethinking development strategies,
Oxford University Press, Oxford.
xxix
UNESCO (2012), Youth And Skills: Putting Education at Work, EFA Global Monitoring Report, UNESCO, Paris.
xxx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (2007), Projection of Population by Level of Educational
Attainment, Age and Sex for 120 Countries for 2005-2050.
6
xxxi
Ansu, Y. and Tan, J.-P. (2011), “Skills Development for Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pragmatic
Perspective”, in Noman, A. (Ed.), Good growth and governance in Africa: Rethinking development strategies,
Oxford University Press, Oxford.
xxxii
Ighobor, K. (2013), “Africa's Youth: A 'Ticking Time Bomb' or an Opportunity. Leaders Awakening to the Need
for Job-Creation Programmes”, Africa Renewal, Vol. 27 No. 1, pp. 10–12.
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