NILE RIVER FLOOD
PROTECTION
Prof. Medhat Aziz
Director, NRI, MWRI,EGYPT
Eng. Tahani Sileet
General Director, Nile Water
Sector, MWRI,EGYPT
Main Features of the
Nile River

Basin area : about 3.0 million square km.

Area of lakes is 81,500 square km.

Area of swamps is 70,000 square km.


Length : 6700 km.
Length of Rivers and Tributaries is
37,500 km.

Average annual rainfall 1661 BCM

Average annual yield at Aswan 84 BCM

11 Riparian States with 370 million
people
Nile River Flood
Classification
• Highest recorded flood for the natural river at Aswan :150
BCM(1878-1879)
• Lowest recorded value: 42 BCM(1913-1914).
• Nile River natural flow records at Aswan can be divided
into 5 categories:
1-Very low flood (52, or less, BCM).
2-Low flood (70 BCM).
3-Average flood (92 BCM).
4-High flood (110 BCM).
5-Very high flood (exceeding 110 billion BCM).
Key Issues in Flood
Management

Lack of good quality hydrological (flow) data

Establishing and operating real time gauging
stations

Data Communication system & data sharing
between agencies & countries

Lack of capacity to predict short period rainfall
data

Institution and Staff capacity building in flood
forecasting & hydrological models

Sustainability of flood forecasting systems

Very short lead time
Regional Background
Sudan
•
•
The annual flood from the Blue Nile replenishes soil moisture and fertility, and
recharges groundwater, so is the mainstay of agriculture
Hundreds of villages ,because of their proximity to the river banks are
adversely affected in years of above average floods.
Egypt
•
•
•
HAD was completed in 1970, and generation of hydropower and regulation
of water for irrigation became a mainstay of the Egyptian economy.
Storage filled over about 10 years, and releases were stable until Ethiopia
severe droughts in the 1980s, where the lake levels declined progressively
High flood years in 1998 to 2001 proved that flood risk management is still on
the agenda for the government of Egypt.
Sinai Flash Floods
• Flash floods on and after 18 January 2010 left 780
homes totally destroyed, 1,076 submerged and the
area suffered material losses of over US$25.3 million.
• The floods ruined 59km of roads, killed 1,838 animals
and felled 27,820 (mostly olive) trees.
August 2013. Khartoum, Sudan Photo: IFRC
Examples of flood Damage
Impact of Flash Floods as of 11 August 2014 in
Sudan Source IRCS . (IFRC)
Measures Undertaken
• High flood risk:
Egypt
o Nile River bank protection (about 200 km along the River Nile were protected by
stone revetment).
o Hydraulic structure protection
o Prevention of Nile encroachments to allow for the river maximum discharge
capacity.
•
Low flood risk:
o Providing water requirements for agricultural lands
o Solving navigation problems
Sudan
• Some riparian villages have developed systems of low
levees (terraces) .
• More formal levees exist in certain urban areas
(Khartoum, Dongola) .
Flood Forecasting
Egypt
•
Nile Water Sector: watershed rainfall monitoring using rainfall satellite images, which
give an indication for the coming flood for about ten days in advance. the sector
monitors the flood water levels and discharges along Nile Basin gauging stations.
•
Planning Sector: monitors, through flood forecasting and simulation center, the
climatic changes and Nile Basin rainfall indications. It uses the satellite images and
hydrological models.
•
HAD Authority : Uses the previous flow records and compare it with the coming
flood records using the least square method to develop a linear relationship
between incoming flow from the beginning of August to the end of June and the
forecasting flood period. The authority uses the previous Nile Basin flood records to
get an approximation for the coming flood. For short periods, the coming flow
records are used to have an indication for the coming 15 days.
•
Nile Research Institute: uses the statistical forecasting approaches performing
historical record analysis to propose and outline the target flow. It can provide the
forecasting for one or more coming year/s.
Flood Foecasting
300
Billion Cubic Meter
250
200
150
100
Egypt
50
0
1
12
23
34
45
56
67
78
89
100
111
122
133
144
155
166
177
188
199
210
221
232
243
254
265
276
287
298
309
320
331
342
353
364
Day
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
200
150
100
50
0
Day
1
12
23
34
45
56
67
78
89
100
111
122
133
144
155
166
177
188
199
210
221
232
243
254
265
276
287
298
309
320
331
342
353
364
Billion Cubic Meter
250
2013/14
Average from 2001/02 to 2012/13
25
Billion Cubic Meter
20
15
10
5
Average
2013/2014
March
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
July
June
May
April
0
Data : Rainfall Satellite Images RFE (8km)
3products: Accumulated rainfall for
studied year compared with : accumulated
of the pervious years, average
accumulated rainfall for the pervious years
and Every 10 days for studied year
compared with average for each 10 days
for pervious years.
Nile Forecast Center
• established in 1992 to provide a real-time hydrometeorological forecasting system for the Nile River
Basin.
• Capabilities:
- Monitor hydro meteorological conditions in the Blue
Nile and Atbara Basins;
- Data management and processing;
- Analyze outputs from different forecasting tools
- Produce and distribute regular Nile Forecast Center
Bulletin
- Set different alternatives and scenarios for Nile WRM
Flood Forecasting
Sudan
• Following the floods of 1988, the Sudanese Ministry of
Irrigation and Water Resources initiated the establishing
of an operational flood forecasting system, developed
with the Netherland technical assistance and became
operational in 1992, known as FEWS Sudan.
• This system was updated in collaboration with ENTRO
with the modern standards of the current Delft FEWS
forecasting platform using data provided from Different
sources : Rainfall estimates(USGS, TRMM and CMORPH)
and water level from Hydrological stations.
•
Flood Forecasting
Sudan
The forecasting model is combined from three models:
o HEC-HMS rainfall runoff model of the upper blue Nile catchement (upstream of the
border at Eddeim gauging station).
o HEC-RAS model of the Blue Nile between Eddeim and Khartoum
o Linear correlation Models between key gauges in the Blue and Main Nile between
Eddeim and Dongola.
Major output of the Sudan FEWS :
o Estimated rainfall gridded maps and weighed rainfall hyetographs
o Simulated flow hydrograph at Eddeim (upper Blue Nile watershed outlet) using HEC-HMS
hydrological model based on satellite rainfall estimates.
o Updated forecast flow hydrograph at Eddeim based on the observed flow series during
the historical period.
o Simulated and updated forecast of flow and water level hydrographs at Blue Nile Hydro
stations: Roseires, Singa, Sennar, Medani, Kamlin, and Khartoum.
o Flood season comparisons for the observed 2014 flood water level hydrograph with the
historical water level hydrographs and seasonal mean.
o Linear correlation water level forecast at Blue and main Nile from Eddeim to Dongola.
•