Organizing Team

Prof. Dr Iqrar Ahmad Khan (Sitara-e-Imtiaz)
Vice Chancellor -University of Agriculture, Faisalabad
Inauguration of Climate Change Chair
Introduction:
The manifestations of climate change include higher temperatures,
erratic rainfall patterns, glacier melts and more frequent extreme events
such as heat waves, droughts and floods. Due to global warming, the
Monsoon pattern is changing in the South Asian region and extreme
temperatures are expected in both summer and winter months,
accompanied by altered yearly distribution of precipitation, including
prolonged dry spells in one part and the occurrence of flood disasters in
another part. Agriculture is the most vulnerable to climate and thus
would be affected by climate change. The climate change can lead to an
increase in existing or potential conflicts with regard to possession of
natural resources such as land and water etc. Such conflicts may
exacerbate climate change impacts worsening food security issues. For
this Climate Change Chair is being established under the umbrella of
‘Center for Advanced Studies (CAS) for agriculture and food security’
with the following:
Objectives
 Establishment of Climate Data Bank .

Predicting and Forecasting Changes in Climate.

Developing Adaptation Strategies for Agriculture.

Application and Assessment of Universal and Local Climate
Models

Establishment of Pakistan Automated Environmental
Monitoring Network (PAEMN)

Prof. Dr Muhammad Arshad T.I (Dean Faculty of Agriculture)

Prof. Dr. Asif Ali ( Director, ORIC-UAF)

Prof. Dr Ehsan Ullah (Chairman Dept. of Agronomy)

Prof. Dr Ashfaq Ahmad Chattha (Chief Organizer/Lead PI)

Prof. Dr. Gerrit Hoogenboom (AgMIP Resource Person,USA)

Prof. Dr. M. Ashfaq
(Co-PI) Economics

Syed Aftab Wajid
(Co-PI) Crop Modeling

Dr. Tasneem Khaliq
(Co-PI) Crop Modeling

Dr Wajid Nasim
(Co-PI) CIIT Crop Modeling

Dr. Shakeel Ahmad
(Co-PI) BZU Crop Modeling

Dr. Ghulam Rasul
(Co-PI) PMD ISD.

Mr. Ahsan Raza Sattar
(Co-PI) IT

Dr. Fahd Rasul
(Outreach Organizer)
AgMIP-Pakistan Kickoff
Workshop
&
International Seminar on Climate
Change
“Crop
Modeling – An Artistic Tool for Risk
Management in Agriculture”
June 4-6, 2013
Faisalabad-Pakistan
Chief Organizer
PROF. DR. ASHFAQ AHMAD CHATTHA
Lead PI of AgMIP Project
Officer Incharge, Climate Change Cell.
Agro-Climatology Lab. Department of Agronomy
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. 38040, Pakistan.
Tel & Fax: 0092 41 2409494
Cell No. 0092 300 7204372
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Communication Incharge
DR. FAHD RASUL (ORGANIZING SECRETARY)
Outreach organizer-AgMIP/ Assistant Professor
Agro-Climatology lab. Department of Agronomy
University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. 38040, Pakistan
Cell No : 0092 322 788 1778
Tel & Fax : 0092 41 2409494
Email: [email protected]
Theme
“Assessing Climate Vulnerability and projecting
Crop Productivity Using Integrated Crop and
Economic Modeling Techniques”
An Outstanding Training Workshop
Rationale
Climate change, climate variability, carbon sequestration,
long-term food security and environmental sustainability have become
important issues in current scenario. Computer simulation models can
make a valuable contribution to our understanding of the processes that
determine crop responses and predict crop performance. Simulation
models greatly facilitate the task of optimizing crop growth and deriving
recommendations concerning crop management. They can also be used
to determine the potential impact of climate change on future crop
productivity, Climate smart agricultural development, mitigation and
adaptation strategies.
Themes
 Climate Change and Agriculture
 Crop Modeling and Intercomparison of Models.
 Climate Change impact assessment and economic modeling
 Application of Modeling and Information Communication
Technology (ICT) in Agriculture
 Mitigation and adaptation strategies development in the wake of
climate change.
Program Aims and Objectives
The overall goal of this training program is to familiarize
participants with climate change, comprehensive computer models for the
simulation of crop growth, yield, soil and plant water, nutrient and carbon
dynamics and their application to real world problems.
Program Highlights
 Create the forum for sharing knowledge and experiences in research,
development and practices on Crop Growth Models.
 Make extensive use of “HANDS ON” training sessions that apply
the APSIM, DSSAT, AQUA Crop, EPIC models to cropping
systems in various regions of the world.
 Describe procedures for collecting and managing crop, weather and
soil data for model evaluation and practical approach for simulating
effects of soil, weather, management, diseases and pest infestation
on crop production.
Agricultural Model Intercomparison
Improvement Project (AgMIP)
 Opportunity to work with your own data and to determine the
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement
Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop,
and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information
technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next
generation of climate impact predictions for the agricultural sector.
Wheat, rice and cotton are major crops in Pakistan in terms of
local consumption and exports. These crops are grown on 8.66, 2.36 and
2.83 million hectares of land respectively, with a total production of 23.5
million tons of wheat, 6.61 million tons of rice, and 13.6 million bales of
cotton (Economic survey 2012). These crops are grown in different
agro-ecological zones of Pakistan. Each zone represents diverse soil,
social, hydrological and climatic conditions. The overall goal of the
project is the analysis of historic/current climate, as well as crop and
economic data to determine the trends of climate change in the region and
its likely impact on crop productivity and the economy.
The calibration and evaluation of crop models and economic
models, quantification of the spatial and temporal yield variability and
yield
forecasting under changing climate scenarios is the need of the
hour. Our experts are quantifying the impacts of climate change on wheat,
rice and cotton
production under the agro ecological conditions of
Pakistan. The project will enable improved confidence in predictions of
likely climate change impacts and will also allow for rigorous analysis and
scrutiny of concepts and assumptions underlying each model. Improved
understanding of model behavior is likely to be helpful while
communicating with the farmers and decision-makers who must plan for
the outcomes of changing climate. In addition to research, regular
exchange of information will occur through training activities aimed to
enhance skills needed to undertake the work. This includes hands-on
sessions in data assessment and management, use of models and other tools
for interpretation of results. It also includes training on methods for
regional integrated assessments utilizing information from climate, crop
and economic models.
AgMIP Objective
 Incorporate state-of-the-art climate products as well as crop and

accuracy of the models for application to specific problems.
 Assess economic and climatic risks associated with agricultural

production.
 To share knowledge and experience on Crop Models with
international experts and agencies in changing climate scenario.
AgMIP Two-Track Science Approach
Introduction
 Demonstrate how processes of crop growth and development, water
use, nutrients and carbon dynamics can be simulated.
and


agricultural trade model improvements in coordinated regional and
global assessments of future climate impacts.
Include multiple models, scenarios, locations, crops and participants
to explore uncertainty and impact of data and methodological
choices.
Collaborate with experts in agronomy, economics and climate to
build strong basis for applied simulations addressing key
climate-related issues.
Improve scientific and adaptive capacity for major agricultural hubs
in the developing and developed world.
Develop framework to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies
Track 1: Model Improvement and Inter comparison.
Track 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment
AgMIP Team




Crop Modelers / Agronomists
Meteorologists / Climatologists
Economists
Information Technologists
Benefits of AgMIP

Capacity building for climate, crop and economic modeling to
identity and prioritize adaptation strategies.



Consistent protocols, scenarios and data access.

Contributions to climate change policy and national adaptation
Improved regional assessments of climate impacts.
Facilitated trans
partnerships.
disciplinary
collaboration
and
active
Abstract Submission
Abstract for the international seminar on climate change should
reach to the organizers preferably in Microsoft word format having
350-400 words through the following email
[email protected]
Hardline for abstracts submission is 25th May 2013 for the inclusion
in the peer reviewed proceedings of the seminar
* Whole program is sponsored by AgMIP. There will be no
registration fee.