Mexican Migration to the United
States and the Bracero Program
Ed Kosack
5 December 2013
Economic History of the U.S.
ECON4524
A Little Bit of History…
• With the signing of the
Treaty of Guadalupe
Hidalgo in 1848, the
United States took
ownership of modern
day California,
Arizona, New Mexico,
Nevada, Utah, and
parts of Colorado and
Wyoming. Residents
in these areas could
choose either Mexican
or U.S. citizenship and
most chose to become
U.S. citizens.
A Little Bit of History…
• Prior to 1900, migration
from Mexico was small.
• At the turn of the century
the railroad, mining
industry, and agriculture
pulled many people north
to seek opportunities.
The violence of the
Mexican Revolution
pushed people north.
Migration increased over
the first two decades of
the twentieth century.
A Little Bit of History…
• In the 1920s, legislation
was enacted to curtail the
migration of individuals
from Europe.
• Mexican migrants became
the number one foreign
group entering the
country in the 1920s as
low skilled labor from
Europe became scarce
A Little Bit of History…
• In the 1930s, rising
unemployment and
worsening economic
conditions made migration
to the United States less
attractive.
• Nativism against Mexican
immigrants increased and
repatriation efforts
increased.
• The flow of Mexicans to
the U.S. was quite small.
A Little Bit of History…
• With the beginning of
World War II, labor
shortages in the U.S. and
an increased demand for
agricultural goods had
farmers asking for help.
• In 1942 the U.S.
negotiated a bilateral,
temporary worker
program with Mexico
called the Bracero
Program
Some Big Questions…
• Who migrated to the United States
from Mexico?
• How did migration to the United
States affect life in the sending
communities in Mexico?
What I Do (Part 1)…
• Explore the self-selection of Mexican migrants in the
early twentieth century to think about the question,
“Who came to the U.S. from Mexico?”
• Migrants are not a random draw from the home
population
▫ Positive selection – The “best” workers migrate
▫ Negative selection – The “worst” workers migrate
Challenges We Face…
• How to measure worker “quality”
▫ Human capital!
• Where to find the measures for migrants and nonmigrants in 1920
▫ Archives (and some help from other researchers)!
• How to compare migrants and non-migrants
▫ Comparing distributions (yay for pictures!) and some
regression analysis!
Worker Quality…
• Other studies use
measures like
wages/productivity,
education, literacy,
occupation, etc.
• Many of these aren’t
available for 1920,
and so we use height
• Height is correlated
with health, nutrition,
income, high wages,
productivity, etc.
Data is Hard to Find…
• We hand-collect
heights for migrants
in 1920 from border
manifests
• Comparison samples
come from another
researcher who
collected heights in
the Mexican military
and from Mexican
passport applications
Measuring Self-Selection…
Measuring Self-Selection…
Some Conclusions…
• Migrants were 4-5cm taller than those in the
military (lower class) and only 1.4cm shorter
than those applying for passports (upper class)
• Thus, we conclude that migrants from Mexico to
the United States in 1920 were positively
selected
• Why do we care?
▫ Brain/Productivity drain in Mexico affects
economic development
▫ Migrant networks are persistent so those who
came in 1920 could tell us about those who come
today
What I Do (Part 2)…
• Explore the effects of temporary migration from
Mexico to the United States by guest workers
under the Bracero Program on economic
development in the sending communities in
Mexico
• Temporary migrants brought back money and
ideas with them after working in the U.S.
▫ Money relaxes an income constraint and allows
households to invest
▫ Ideas, experiences, and exposure to new
institutions change an individual’s propensity to
invest in education, small business, etc.
The Bracero Program…
• Response by US and Mexico to
labor shortages in the US
caused by World War II
• Temporary worker program
negotiated through a series of
bilateral agreements between
Mexico and the U.S., 1942-1964
• Labor from Mexico came to the
US to work for contracted time
period, wage, and other
benefits
A HUGE Program…
Are Positive Effects Obvious…NO!
• In 1957, average bracero wage estimated at
$5.80 per day and average wage in Mexico
estimated at $0.63 per day
• BUT…
▫ Migration could be costly (e.g., transportation,
forgone production at home, etc.)
▫ Corruption (e.g., bribes to be paid, pay withheld,
etc.)
▫ Disruptions to the household and the family can
have negative effects on those left at home
Challenging Estimation…
• A simple regression of bracero migration on
education outcomes will not produce good
results…Why?
▫ Omitted Variable Bias!!!
• Instrumental variables is a good way to
overcome this bias…but what is a good
instrument?
▫ Strongly predicts bracero migration
▫ Not correlated with the outcome
Bracero Recruitment Helps…
• Before coming to the
United States as a
bracero, a worker had
to first travel to a
recruitment center in
Mexico
• This travel was at the
worker’s own expense
• States closer to centers
sent more braceros
Bracero Recruitment Helps…
• The locations of
centers changed over
time and these changes
occurred as the result
of international
bargaining
• Mexico wanted them
farther south
• The U.S. wanted them
farther north
• This bargaining is not
correlated with statelevel education
outcomes
And What About Data…
• Recruitment center
locations taken directly
from the international
agreements signed
between the two
nations
• State-level data is
transcribed by hand
from the Anuarios
estadisticos de los
Estados Unidos
Mexicanos
So What Do I Find…
• Bracero migration increased primary school
enrollments (10% increase in the number of
braceros leads to a 0.3% increase in enrollment)
▫ At the average, 520 more braceros caused 373
more students to be enrolled in primary school
• Bracero migration increased spending (10%
increased in the number of braceros leads to a
1.4% increase in spending)
▫ At the average, 520 more braceros caused
141,400 more pesos to be spent
Some Additional Research…
• Bracero migration and entrepreneurship
▫ Preliminary results suggest that migrating to the
United States as a bracero increases the
likelihood that the individual will start a new
business when they return
• Bracero migration and long term development
▫ Analysis to be completed will analyze adult
outcomes for the children of braceros to see if
positive effects persist through time
Lessons From History…
• Current immigration
reform debate includes
discussion of guest worker
programs
• Guest worker programs
are seen as particularly
attractive migration policy
• Bracero Program and
these results teach us that
guest worker program can
also be good development
policy