Innovation Leadership Skills
for the High-Tech Economy Demand, Supply and Forecasting
Tobias Hüsing, empirica
Eriona Dashja, empirica
High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe Conference – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
e-Skills forecast: IT Professionals
e-Leadership definition
Quantification
e-Leadership forecast
Conclusions
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Latest Forecast, Dec. 2015
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
9,500,000
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
Jobs and demand potential
8,964,000
Old Forecast of 2015
9,000,000
8,812,000
8,641,000
8,500,000
576,000
8,049,000
7,900,000
365,000
373,000
jobs potential
668,000
8,239,000
8,000,000
756,000
722,000
8,444,000
8,209,000
8,090,000
472,000
7,973,000
674,000
7,868,000
7,767,000
jobs added
7,676,000
7,500,000
7,535,000
7,000,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
2019
2020
New Forecast Scenario, Jan. 2017
EU28 - Main Forecast Scenario
Broad definition (Eurostat) of ICT specialist workforce
9,500,000
Demand Potential Total
Jobs Total
9,174,000
Jobs and demand potential
9,022,000
Why is the gap in 2020
9,000,000
8,867,000
448,000
8,728,000
8,556,000
8,500,000
8,396,000
370,000
363,000
8,574,000
8,472,000
8,318,000
8,033,000
7,500,000
2015
2016
2017
• Supply improvements
+109k jobs
642,000
= 43% of effect
jobs added
• Demand effects
-137k demand
= 54% of effect
• Different definition
and other factors
-10k gap
2020
= 4% of effect
8,675,000
8,186,000
8,000,000
500,000 down to 500k?
jobs potential
395,000
410,000
2018
Annual averages:
• Demand growth 1.8%
• 128,000 job creation
• 215,000 replacement
2019
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Supply of IT Skills is growing
Supply forecast has increased, especially on the
training (VET) side, education (HE) stagnating
160.000
140.000
120.000
122.000
133.000
135.000
103.000
104.000
123.000
114.000
100.000
115.000
114.000
111.000
Vocational
80.000
60.000
62.000
40.000
63.000
65.000
67.000
2009
2010
2011
Tertiary
72.000
50.000
20.000
0
2007
2008
2012
2013
2014
VET = Vocational Education and Training HE = Higher Education
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
4-year growth averages (2011 to 2015) signs of skill polarization
8.3%
Management, architecture
and analysis
7.4%
Core ICT practitioners professional level
Other ICT practitioners professional level
3.9%
3.5%
Core ICT practitioners associate/technician level
Other ICT practitioners associate/technician level
1.7%
Mechanics and servicers
0.4%
Total
-0.1%
e-Skills Forecast - Summary
•
•
•
•
Estimated gap narrowing – in part due to better supply
Polarization: middle skills might get under pressure
Continuous education and training gain more relevance
Overall demand keeps growing despite offshoring and
automation (growing sophistication and professionalism)
• Labour market over decades met demand through lateral
(“outsider”) entries, mending the gap, but still...
• ... a conflict between the growing need for increased IT
professionalism and work-around practices is prevailing
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
e-Leadership Definition
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
© empirica 2016
Quantification
• Sectoral: IT-intensity and size of firm determine a
certain average number of innovation leaders
Estimation based on the structure of the economy
• Survey based: asking about involvement of
workers in successful digital innovation
• Functional: Assigning innovation leadership
probabilities to job statistics
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
9
e-Leaders in Europe: around 600,000
Small
12,000
28,000
Medium
Large
ICT
ICT intensive
Low ICT intensity
75,000
54,000
130,000
155,000
High growth SMEs 140,000
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
10
Demand: Counting Job Adverts
• Analysis of online job postings (Jobfeed database )
• Search algorithm to find ads fitting all the criteria of
the e-leadership definition
• DE, UK, FR, NL, AT
Leadership
& Strategy
• November 2015 snapshot
TransDigital
Business
& formation
&
• Assume 50% publish rate
Innovation
• Assume EU total ~= 5 countries * 1.5
•  16,500 vacancies for e-leaders
– Equals vacancy rate of 2.65%
(compare: total business economy: 1.8%, ICT: 2.9%)
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
© empirica 2016
Demand Forecast e-Leadership Jobs
Scenario Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
Demand Forecast for e-Leadership Jobs
900.000
805,000
800.000
700.000
600.000
500.000
694.000
616.500
16,500
173,000
383,000
600.000
521.000
400.000
422.000
300.000
Expansion demand since 2016
Replacement demand since 2016
Jobs held by 2016 workforce
Demand total
200.000
100.000
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels,
26th
2022
January 2017
2023
2024
2025
Supply Scenarios Given
Moderate Demand Growth (3% CAGR)
e-leader generation
capacity / year
Vacancies
2020
Vacancies
2025
Over-supply Over-supply
2020
2025
30,000
53,000
112,500
0
0
40,000
13,000
22,500
0
0
42,500
3,000
1,000
0
0
45,000
0
0
5,000
2,000
50,000
0
0
10,000
7,000
60,000
0
0
20,000
17,000
Given 3% demand growth, optimum capacity
generates 40,000 to 50,000 e-leaders per year
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Quantification - Summary
•
•
•
•
•
•
Estimates based on the definition of e-Leadership
No data available from statistical offices
Status quo ~ 600,000
Open vacancy data, some assumptions applying, as a demand metric
Future demand evolution based on scenarios only
At 3% demand growth, 40k to 50k new e-leaders annually needed
– Graduate figures from executive education (HE and business schools) are
far from being even close to this order of magnitude
– Supply emerges mainly trough cross-functional experience, corporate
leadership programmes and other on-the-job development.
• Significant scope for improvement of e-leadership talent development
strategies, at enterprise as well as at national and EU economy level
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Other Indicators As Proxy
Input
Throughput
Innovation
leadership
pipeline
Output/Outcome
Business
structure
Innovation
leadership
skilling
Technology
usage
Innovation
leadership
skills base
pool
Innovation leadership policy and
stakeholder
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
Innovation
8,0
e-Leadership Measurement
4,3
4,3
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,8
3,7
3,6
3,5
3,3
3,3
3,2
3,2
3,2
3,2
SE
FR
DE
ES
EE
PL
LU
SI
HR HU
LT
PT
BG
CZ
GR
IT
SK
LV
CY
2,2
4,4
4,6
MT AT
4,6
BE
4,6
FI
2015
4,7
5,5
NL
5,0
5,5
DK
5,5
5,9
UK
2016
5,5
6,2
Input & leading indicators - education, graduates and juniors, policy
EU
5,3
3,8
ES
SK
CY
PT
IT
PL
HR BG RO GR EU
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
3,2
3,9
HU
3,4
4,0
LT
3,8
4,0
LV
4,1
CZ
4,2
SI
4,4
EE MT
4,4
AT
4,6
FR
4,9
5,5
DK
5,1
5,6
IE
5,8
DE
5,9
BE
5,9
LU
6,1
UK
6,4
7,1
FI
6,4
7,2
NL
6,8
7,4
SE
RO
Outcome & lagging indicators - senior professionals & leaders, business &
innovation environment
2016 2015
7,0
7,5
IE
16
Accomplishment vs. Preparedness Plotting
For The Mid-Term Outlook
8,00
IE
Dedicated
to Lead
7,00
e-Leadership Preparedness
Innovation Leadership
Skills Outlook
Potential
to Leap
UK
6,00
DK
MT
FI
BE
NL
AT
5,00
ES
PL
HR
4,00
3,00
2,00
3,00
SI
HULT
LV CZ
SE
DE
LU
4,00
5,00
PT
DE
PL
AT
LV
ES
HU
CZ
MT
EU
SE
DK
IT
LU
HR
LT
GR
BE
BG
CY
UK
SK
FR
Risk of
Complacency
At risk of
Stagnating
RO
2,00
EE
BG PT
IT SK
CY
GR
FR
EU
IE
FI
EE
SI
RO
6,00
7,00
8,00
NL
e-Leadership Accomplishment
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
© empirica 2016
Conclusions
• Unless massive surveys are undertaken, useful to rely on
indicator scoreboard as proxy measurement
• Preparedness > accomplishment: best outlook on
growing their e-leadership skills maturity. Examples:
–
–
–
–
–
Ireland (Strengths: executive education and LLL),
Malta (Policies and initiatives),
Denmark (Graduates & junior practitioners, LLL),
Spain (Executive education),
Poland (Education programmes, graduates)
• Accomplishment > preparedness: Look out for complacency!
European Conference on “High-Tech and Leadership Skills for Europe” – Brussels, 26th January 2017
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