Selecting and electing women to the House of Representatives: Progress at last? Dr Jennifer Curtin and Kelly Sexton Politics Program School of Political and Social Inquiry Monash University Refereed paper presented to the Australasian Political Studies Association Conference University of Adelaide 29 September - 1 October 2004 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women Discussions of the political representation of women have increasingly recognised the importance of political parties in the equality equation. While there can be no doubt that the choice of electoral system matters to women’s representation, it is also clear that proportional representation cannot be seen as the end point to achieving gender equality in national and sub-national parliaments. Electoral system change (from majoritarian to proportional representation) is unusual in modern democratic states. Moreover, no electoral system can be understood “in isolation from the political system of which it is a part” (Butler 1981, 8). So, while a particular electoral system may determine the coherence, structure and number of parties that compete, the characteristics, behaviour and strategic choices of these political parties may in turn determine the extent to which gendered representation is institutionalised within the parliamentary arena. In an effort to explore further the relationship between the electoral system, political parties and the institutionalisation of gender equality in politics, this paper considers the recent impact of the Australian Labor Party’s quota on women’s candidacy rates in elections to Australia’s national House of Representatives. The aim is to reveal not only the extent to which the quota rule has led to more Labor women being selected, but whether there is evidence of an indirect influence on the other major political actor, the Coalition and its propensity to select women as candidates. Research suggests that contagion effects are more likely to result in proportional representation systems (Matland and Studlar 1996) and single member districts are said to undermine the selection of women as candidates because of intra-party competition. Thus, it may seem counter-intuitive to seek a contagion effect in a majoritarian system, like that of Australia’s federal lower house. However, in recent years, political parties have experienced declining membership, there is little connection between party elites and the grassroots membership, and there has been an increase in electoral volatility (Pennings and Hazan 2001). In the case of Australia, all of these features are evident (Ward, 1991; Bennett, 1998) and, when combined with the existence of compulsory Page 2 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women voting and preferential (alternate ballot) voting in the lower house, any perceived electoral advantage, including that of wooing additional women voters by appearing open to women’s representation, may induce the opposing party to become more open to women’s candidature (cf Kolinksy 1991; Matland 1993). What impact Gender Quotas? There has been much discussion in recent decades about the obstacles women face in achieving gender equality in the parliamentary sphere (Burrell 1985; Lakeman 1976; Lovenduski and Norris 1993; Norris and Lovenduski 1995; Norris 1996; Rule 1987; Sawer and Simms 1993; Shredova 1998). At the systemic level, proportional representation has been identified, both within nation states and in cross-national analyses as a key factor in promoting women’s representation. Political culture appears to matter, particularly when measured in terms of the voice and influence of the women’s movement. With respect to political institutions, political parties have been identified consistently as the primary gatekeepers to increasing women’s election to parliament. The importance of parties applies in both majoritarian and proportional representation systems. Yet it was not until the mid-1980s that the idea and implementation of quotas by parties began to attract serious scholarly attention. By the mid-1990s around 84 parties in 36 nations had adopted gender quotas (IPU in Caul 2001) and research into the success or otherwise of such strategies have begun to flourish.1 Candidate gender quotas can be categorised into three broad strategies: as reserved seats for women; as national legal quotas introduced via legislation or constitutional amendment; or as political party quotas. Some initiatives have been enshrined in law, with financial penalties applied to parties that do not conform, while others have been voluntarily adopted by (usually) left-leaning parties. Most research suggests that the important aspect to a successful quota strategy is the setting of a target percentage of women to be selected, usually to winnable positions, achieved within a There are obviously some exceptions, see for example Dahlerup’s (1998) summaries of the Nordic experience of quotas. 1 Page 3 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women certain time frame (Curtin 1997a; Dahlerup 1998; IPU 1994; Studlar and McAllister 1998).2 The use of quotas as a strategic intervention is not without its critics. At a theoretical level, debate primarily centres on the model of representation that best informs good democratic practice and whether equality of representation should feature as a legitimate claim for change (Phillips 1995; Sawer 2001). At a more practical level, some argue that while the adoption of a quota requires organisational change on the part of parties, as a remedy quotas fail to address the discriminatory practices and institutionalised sexism embedded within political systems (Dahlerup 1998; Edwards and McAllister 2002; Sawer 2000). Others contend that quotas limit women’s representation to the target set; that implementation relies on women’s preparedness to put themselves forward (Dahlerup 1998); or that quotas undermine the notion of selection on the basis of merit (Henderson 1999). On the other hand, there is an argument that while the hidden biases may not initially be addressed by the advent of quotas, the more women are elected, the more likely that the gendered nature of parliamentary norms and practices will be diluted and ultimately a political career will become more attractive to women. The likelihood of such substantive change occurring is however, dependent in part on a critical mass of women being elected to parliament (Broughton and Zetlin 1996; Childs 2002; Grey 2002). Moreover, for the political parties that adopt a quota, they also choose, advertently or not, a more proactive role in recruitment if they are serious about increasing the candidacy rates of women. As a result, it becomes necessary for the internal party machine to direct financial and other resources towards attracting women candidates and educating party officials to become more open to women as potential recruits. Research indicates for example that increasing the number of women officials within the party bureaucracy also has an influence on women’s parliamentary representation (Caul 1999; Gelb 1989; Lovenduski and Norris 1993), primarily for two reasons: 1) because these women gain political capital by working for the party and go For a detailed definition of these three categories of candidate gender quotas see Krook, M. 2003. ‘Candidate Gender Quotas: A Framework for Analysis’, Paper presented at the 2nd General Conference of the ECPR, Marburg, Germany, 2 Page 4 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women on themselves to contest an election and 2) these women actively facilitate and support the adoption and implementation of gender quotas within the party. Two further points regarding the implementation of a gender quota are worth mentioning here. The first concerns the format of party selection procedures: that is, whether they are centralised or localised. Matland and Studlar (1996) argue that centralised procedures allow party leaders to respond to (internal and external) pressures for increasing diversity in representation, often resulting in the adoption of a gender quota. In addition, centralised procedures also enable party hierarchies to intervene, where necessary, to ensure the quota rule is implemented. By contrast, localised selection processes (which are more prominent in non-PR systems) are less easily influenced by either the central party organ, or by a concerted and organised women’s movement working from outside the party system. However, this perspective could become more complicated by an emerging trend towards democratisation of the selection process. In theory, democratising candidate selection means that more people are involved in the process of selection, while central party organs release much of their control. While primaries are a traditional means for voters to directly select candidates, there also appears to be a trend towards political parties allowing their members to have more direct input into candidate selection and conference delegate and party executive elections (Pennings and Hazan 2001; see also ALP 2002). This has the potential to be a difficult issue for women party activists. While male domination of a party’s national executive and conferences has been the norm, often making it difficult for progressive rules to be debated and agreed to, centralised control has also provided the means for ensuring implementation of the gender quotas once they have been adopted. The second point of note is the issue of incumbency. Incumbents are more likely to be re-elected, and there is a drag effect associated with the supply of women as potential candidates and the availability of seats. Cross-national evidence suggests that high incumbency rates in seats have a negative impact on the election of women to parliament (Darcy et al 1994; Matland and Studlar 1996). Quotas are a direct way of September 18-21. Page 5 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women undermining the drag effect, but can lead to problems with implementation if sitting members have to face disendorsement. Despite these obstacles early research suggests that there is a significant increase in women’s representation where gender quotas have been adopted. While this increase is not uniform across nation states (Krook 2003), it is evident that gender-related rules are one of the most direct means by which the representation of women can be increased (Caul 1999; 2001; Inglehart and Norris 2002; Kolinsky 1991; Norris 2002). To what extent then might we expect the adoption of quotas to produce a contagion effect? While the contagion theory, and its off-shoots (catch-all parties or party policy imitation) has been referred to by numerous authors in the past (for Australia see Jaensch 1983), it is Matland and Studlar (1996) that apply the theory to explaining the differential representation of women in parliaments. Matland and Studlar hypothesise that contagion occurs when a small party (usually leftist) stimulates other (larger) parties to nominate more women candidates. In doing so, the smaller parties highlight the lack of electoral penalty associated with selecting women candidates, while also threatening to take at least some votes from the largest party closest to them on the political spectrum. Once one large party begins to nominate more women, the nature of party competition will ensure that other parties, out of political necessary, adopt their own gender equality strategies. The authors draw on the cases of Norway and Canada to explore their theory: both are multi-party polities (albeit with different electoral systems), and feature progressive smaller parties that have a history of actively promoting women’s political representation. Matland and Studlar argue that while contagion is likely to be evident in both single-member (Canada) and proportional (Norway) systems, its impact will be more effective in the latter type of system because 1) minor parties need to be politically innovative, 2) minor parties are a real electoral threat; and 3) ticket balancing along gender lines is politically palatable because selection is less competitive where district magnitudes are large. Matland and Studlar suggest that when there is no third or minor party to challenge the major parties, women party activists are left with only equity arguments, Page 6 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women rather than strategic arguments about potential vote loss. The latter argument is expected to have more traction with major party decision-makers. However, this assumes that their votes are only lost to minor parties, and not between the two major parties. In the Australian context, the gender gap in electoral behaviour suggests that historically women were more likely to vote Liberal than Labor, although this has not been fixed over time (Curtin 1997b; 2003; Lawrence 2000; Leithner 1997). As such winning the women’s vote has become an effective strategic argument for Labor women party activists seeking a gender quota rule. Thus, whether a multi-party or a two party system, if one party adopts a gender quota, competing parties may still fear losing women’s votes if they do not also act to promote women’s representation (although this may not be in the form of a quota rule). In other words, if party competition is intense, then a (macro)3 contagion effect is highly probable. Data and context Our analysis centres on women’s candidacy rates for Australian House of Representative elections between 1975 and 2001. The numbers of women candidates are examined at each election between 1975 and 2001 in order to draw attention to the impact of several affirmative action initiatives and to identify changes of government. The numbers of women candidates have been collected according to party (major and minor) although the focus of this paper is on the major parties. Data has been divided into winnable, marginal and unsafe (suicide) seats.4 While this paper focuses on the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Coalition, it is worth noting that the Australian Democrats and the Greens have far surpassed the Matland and Studlar (1996) distinguish between a micro and macro contagion effect. Micro refers to the district level, where a woman is nominated in response to a competing party nominating a woman. Macro contagion occurs when one party responds by increasing the overall number of women selected. It is the latter form of contagion that is the focus of this paper. 3 4 There have been two methods employed by electoral behaviourists in Australia when examining notional seat status and candidates selected. One scholar uses the election result for the election in which the candidates stood as the means for determining the seat status (Hughes, 1983a; 1983b), while another uses the notional seat status from the previous election, taking into account any redistributions (Mackerras, 1975; 1980; 1983; 1990). We have chosen the former method for this paper, but are collating an additional data set to allow for an alternative analysis. We hope this additional data will enable us to further investigate the extent to which women candidates might be vote winners. Page 7 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women major parties in their preselection of women candidates (Figure 1). However, as candidates from these two minor parties have yet gain a seat in the House of Representatives at a general election, we have excluded them from this analysis. This does not mean they have not in some way prompted the major parties to review their practices on gender inclusiveness. Moreover, because the Democrats and the Greens are important in determining the balance of power in the Senate, their practices would be worthy of exploration. With respect to the House of Representatives, it is fair to focus primarily on the parties who actually gain representation: ALP and the Coalition. Given this, evidence of a contagion effect of a gender quota on women’s candidacy rates theory might seem unlikely for several reasons. First, while the minor parties have been proactive in their selection of women (see Figure 1), historically they have rarely threatened the major parties in lower house seats, and so are unlikely to induce any imitation. Figure 1: Number of Women Candidates, House of Representatives Elections 80 70 60 50 number ALP Liberal National Dems Greens 40 30 20 10 0 1972 1974 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 election year Sour ces: Mackerras Election Guides various years; AEC correspondence 1984; Hughes in Penniman 1983; AEC Electoral Pocket Books 1984, 1987, 1990, 1993, 1996, 1998, 2001; Sawer and Simms 1993. Page 8 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women Second, because Australia’s system features single-member districts, intra-party competition for selection has always been intense. Moreover, while we still do not know everything about the candidate selection processes (otherwise known as the Secret Garden of Politics5), it is the case that the percentage of fairly safe/safe seats (those held by more than a 5 percent margin) contested at each election is declining as a result of electoral volatility in recent years.6 A likely outcome is that selection for a winnable seat has become even more highly competitive. Third, as Matland and Studlar have argued, turnover in single member systems is lower than in proportional systems, making it more difficult to implement a gender quota without seeking to remove an incumbent.7 In the House of Representatives turnover is likely to be low because it is a single member system but also because since 1931, no government at the federal level has been turned out after only one term in office. Governments are given at least two terms: more in the case of the Menzies (19491972) Hawke-Keating (1984-1996) and Howard Governments (1996-2004). Yet, we might expect to see a contagion effect in a two party system like Australia’s given the following: the vote margin between winning and losing government is within a narrow band;8 intense competition for the middle ground of the political spectrum will force parties towards more innovative and inclusive electoral strategies;9 polling and other research demonstrates that women’s votes can swing and ultimately influence an election result. Moreover, perceptions (justified or otherwise) of women candidates as see M. Gallagher and Michael Marsh (1988), Candidate Selection in Comparative Perspective. The Secret Garden of Australian Politics, London: Sage. 5 While party identification remains the most significant factor in why people vote the way they do, the percentage of first preference votes for the major parties has declined in both the Senate (which should be less surprising given it has a proportional representation system) but also in the House of Representatives (Bennett, 1998). 6 Although this is not the case with the Australian Senate, where elections are conducted using a form of Single Transferable Vote, but with the introduction of above the line voting in 1983, the likelihood of voters listing the candidates individually has diminished substantially. Now, around 94 per cent of voters choose to vote above the line, turning what is technically a Single Transferable Vote system into a quasi-party-list system. This means senators are more likely to lose their protected position on the ballot paper because of party machinations than being punished by voters. 7 In Australian House of Representative elections, governments have tended to win or lose on a 5 percent margin, but their seat majority is often significantly inflated because of the majoritarian electoral system. 8 A version of Downs theory of the rational voter (M. Harrop and W.L. Miller, 1987. Elections and Voters. A Comparative Introduction, Basingstoke: Macmillan). 9 Page 9 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women vote-losers have long since been identified as erroneous in the case of Australia (Mackerras 1977; Summers 1983; Costar and Economou 1992). The Australian Labor Party Quota Women in Australian politics have made demands for party and parliamentary representation in various ways over the last one hundred years. Many early women political activists were anti-party, and women showed their support for this position by standing as independent candidates and/or by voting independently, demonstrating they could not be assumed to vote the same way as their husbands! (Curtin 2003; Leithner 1997). However, once the ‘two party’ system was established, women on both sides of the political spectrum began to work within their respective parties to have their interests addressed. Liberal women negotiated themselves ongoing representation on the federal executive of the Party as early as 1945, while Labor women were only partially successful in maintaining women’s networks and national women’s conferences within the party (Sawer 2000). Indeed, it is widely acknowledged that the ALP considered itself a party for working men, with women, let alone feminists, being seen as peripheral, if not damaging, to the electoral aspirations of the party (ALP 1978; Sawer 2000). In the post WWII period, women’s political representation at the federal level (see Figure 2 over) was minimal to say the least and little cross party activity occurred to politicise the issue. Outside of parliament, the Women’s Electoral Lobby, was influential in drawing attention to women’s policy issues as well as their rates of representation, and its membership often included women who went on to become candidates for election. However, it was not until the mid-1980s that a steady (but hardly substantial) increase in the number of women elected to federal parliament becomes evident. In the case of Australia, pressure for an affirmative action initiative on the part of women did not come from a minor party to the left of the ALP but from women activists both inside and outside the party (Sawer 2000; Summers 1983; Zetlin 1996). In 1978, the ALP conducted a Committee of Inquiry to examine the Party’s future attraction to the Page 10 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women changing demographics and aspirations of Australian voters. The Committee was made up of 15 party members, two of whom were women (and who were included only after protest). The discussion paper on Women in the ALP canvassed a number of affirmative action strategies. For example that each state branch “might be required to endorse a woman candidate for one safe seat at each federal election until women are represented in the federal parliament in proportion to their membership of the party in that state” (ALP 1978, 36). They even went on to suggest the possibility of women-only short-lists: “a mechanism by which this recommendation could be implemented is to declare that nominations for a specified safe seat will be accepted only from women” (ALP 1978, 36). Figure 2: Women’s Representation in the House of Representatives, 1972-2001 25 20 15 number ALP Liberal National 10 5 0 1972 1974 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 election Source: Australian Parliamentary Handbook, http://www.aph.gov.au/library No change resulted immediately following the release of the report. However, at the 1981 ALP National Conference, affirmative action principles were endorsed whereby women were to be represented across all party structures in proportion to their overall membership. This win was considered a surprise to both party supporters and Page 11 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women journalists (Hughes 1983a, 242). The resolution set a target of 30 percent women in the parliamentary party by 1990. However, this first attempt at affirmative action was inherently flawed (Moar 2003). The Conference decision requested rather than required state branches to implement the strategy and it did not explicitly refer to candidate selection for winnable seats. Furthermore, Conference requested the National Executive to monitor branch progress, but did not give them the right to intervene to ensure implementation. So while an important first step, it remained a largely rhetorical strategy making little impact on the number of Labor women elected to parliament. The second affirmative action strategy was the adoption of a gender quota at the ALP National Conference in 1994. What became known as Rule 12 in the Constitution stated that thirty five per cent of the parliamentary party, members of party committees and conference delegates were to be women by 2002, at both federal and state level. The target of 35 percent was commonly cited as reflecting women’s proportion of party membership but was also recognised by women party activists as the point at which women would become a critical mass and able then to overcome the structural and cultural obstacles that remained within the party (Moar 2003; Sawer 2002). The eight year time schedule was based on the expiry of three electoral terms, in recognition that such a time frame is necessary for implementation through natural replacement rather than deposing sitting members (Dahlerup 1988; Hughes 1983a; Zetlin 1996). State Branches10 were designated responsibility for ensuring the gender quota was met and progress reports were to be delivered at National Conference ensuring a level of accountability. The National Executive was able to intervene in preselections if the quota was not met, with all seats then declared open, potentially threatening incumbent men with the possibility of being disendorsed. There is no doubt that this would have acted as a significant punitive incentive to state branches. In 2002, a Special Rules Conference extended the quota target to 40 percent to be achieved by 2012.11 Both Candidates are selected for federal elections by state branches so is a decentralised process in both the Labor and Liberal parties. State Branches have relative autonomy in deciding who to select. The new rule does not provide Labor’s national executive with the authority to intervene during the selection process, only after the event. 10 11 The ALP adopted an affirmative action model of 40:40:20 whereby a minimum of 40 percent of relevant positions shall be held by either gender. This also applied to union delegates to party conferences. The quota increase had been recommended by the Hawke-Wran Report on the ALP commissioned by the Party. The authors appeared Page 12 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women these targets were largely the result of women’s action within the party and by party women working within the independent organisation Emily’s List.12 Elsewhere others have detailed the battles that these women fought in order to achieve this success: the difficulties and tensions associated with the institutionalisation of factions which began to divide women within the party; the difficulties with bringing recalcitrant trade unions into line given their influence at party conference; and forcing the party hierarchy to recognise the value of attracting more women voters to the ALP (Gillard, 2000; Hennessy, 2000; Lawrence, 2000; Sawer, 2000; 2002; Summers, 1983). For example, Zetlin argues that the adoption of the ALP quota in 1994 was a “well orchestrated tactical campaign” by women in the Party. While women were able to “get the numbers” (usually a job for the men), she also argues the campaign represented the development of a more sophisticated form of feminist politics, one which focused less on individual women working outside the system, to one which challenged the institutions themselves as being the source of barriers to more gender equality in representation and participation in politics (Zetlin, 1996: 120). So while gender quotas themselves may not undermine directly the obstacles facing women, the fight to achieve the quota offered the ALP a challenge to reflect on its own culture of equality. So what progress has been made within the Labor Party since the adoption of affirmative action principles? The number of female candidates nominated by the ALP has steadily risen over the last thirty years, reaching double figures in 1977 and averaging around 21 over the following decade (Figure 3). However, prior to the adoption of the 1994 gender quota, the data in Figure 3 indicate that women were seldom endorsed in winnable seats (defined here as those with a margin of more than 5 percent). It is clear that the adoption of the affirmative action principles in 1981 made some difference in terms of the total number of women selected, with four women influenced by the submissions they received from Emily’s List and the Labor Women’s Network, plus a copy of the motions carried at the previous National Labor Women’s Conference. It is worth noting that in 1981, at the time the first Affirmative Action measure was adopted, neither Emily’s List nor the Labor Women’s Network existed to support or promote the issue of women’s selection. 12 EMILY’s List was established in Australia in 1996 and aims to promote the election to parliament of Labor women who demonstrate a commitment to a range of women’s rights. Women candidates preselected for winnable seats are provided with a range of resources and support during their campaign (see Sawer, 2004). Page 13 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women selected to safe seats. Moreover, the target of 30 percent of women in the parliamentary party by 1990 remained elusive (it stood at 9 percent). Page 14 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women Figure 3: Number of ALP Women (S)elected for House of Representative elections 1975-2001 70 60 50 Number 40 30 20 10 0 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 Election Year Total women candidates Women in safe seats Women Elected Sources: see Figure 1 At the time, psephologist Colin Hughes predicted that achieving such an outcome would be difficult: At the next three elections only seven Labor MHRs who held safe seats in 1980 are due to be .. compelled to retire; all of them come from [the state of] New South Wales. Only two in marginal seats could be expected to step down over that period because of age. Thus affirmative action to the level proposed will require the removal of sitting members, or else a very high proportion of winnable seats being assigned to female candidates who then win them in sufficient numbers to assure continuous Labor governments from 1983 onward (Hughes 1983a, 243). While the ALP did govern continuously from 1983, the nomination of women to winnable seats was insufficient to meet the target. Five women were nominated in 1984 Page 15 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women to winnable seats, but as a percentage this represented a decrease in the rate of nomination because the number of parliamentary seats had increased by 23 just prior to the 1984 election, 19 of which were classified as winnable Labor seats. By 1987, the number of women nominated to winnable seats had dropped to just two. Since the adoption of the 1994 quota the number of female candidates nominated has more than doubled from 26 to 59, while the number of those selected for winnable seats almost quadrupled from 4 to 15. Clearly this has had an impact on the parliamentary presence of Labor women, with women now making up 30 percent of Labor MPs at the Commonwealth level, despite Labor being in opposition. While winnable seats were not designated explicitly in the ALP quota rule, implementation necessarily requires the party focus on selecting women for winnable seats. Particularly important is that the party used their time in opposition to achieve their target. In both the 1980 and 1996 elections, the only seats won by women were the winnable seats. In elections where Labor was in government, the proportion of Labor women represented in parliament was bolstered by their success in marginal seats. However, what is also evident about Labor’s time in opposition is that this is when the biggest increases in the number of women nominated occur (1975-83; 1996-01). Comparisons across the political spectrum Ideologically, the Liberal-National Coalition parties in Australia would consider themselves opposed to the introduction of a gender quota. Quotas have been labelled tokenism and undermining selection on the basis of merit (Henderson 1999). Although the Liberal Party has had a history of electing a greater number of women to federal parliament, provided special representation for women on their Federal Executive and had a higher proportion of women party members, there has been less of a demand for strategic intervention on the part of women.13 In addition, it appeared that during the Menzies term as Liberal Prime Minister (1949-1966), the women’s vote had been consolidated by the Liberal Party, and little challenge was apparent from the ALP. 13 The Liberal Party also has a number of women’s networks which focus on providing support, skills training and mentors to aspiring candidates. Page 16 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women While Labor Prime Minister Gough Whitlam was later praised for initiating a range of progressive policy measures on behalf of women during his term (1972-1975), including the establishment of an Office for the Status of Women located within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, this did little to ensure a significant percentage of the women’s vote shifted from Liberal to Labor (Aitkin 1982). Indeed, the Liberal-National Coalition that replaced the Whitlam Government in 1975 was the first to appoint a woman to Cabinet with portfolio responsibilities (as distinct from the Ministry. Senator Margaret Guilfoyle was Minister for Social Security and then Minister for Finance).14 Thus, while the Liberal Party has a history of policy conservatism in the area of women’s issues, it has been a party that has portrayed itself as open to women, often more so than the trade-union dominated ALP. The National Party, perhaps not surprisingly given it is a rural-interest party, was even slower to recognise the interests of their women constituents. In terms of candidate selection, especially during the 1970s, the Coalition’s record on nominating women was dismal (Figure 4). It is not until 1983, that a steady rise in the number of Coalition women candidates begins to emerge. At that election, the Liberal Party lost a considerable number of seats, and many within the party suggested “its apparent lack of sympathy for women’s issues had cost it votes” (Hughes 1983b). By the 1984 election, the number of Coalition women selected had doubled to 22, and from the 1990 election onwards the number has continued to rise steadily to reach the mid 30s by 2001. Between 1984 and 1998, the Coalition has been competitive with, if not surpassing the ALP in terms of the number of women selected. Since 1998 there has been no increase in the number of women, while the ALP’s quota has pushed up its gender candidacy rates significantly. Interestingly, and similarly to the ALP, the points at which the Coalition makes headway with increasing its number of women candidates are also the periods during which it is in opposition (between 1983 and 1996). 14 Enid Lyons was the first Liberal woman in Cabinet but she did not hold a portfolio position. Page 17 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women Figure 4: Number of Women Candidates from Major Parties 1972-2001 70 60 50 40 number ALP Coalition 30 20 10 0 1972 1974 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 election 1998 2001 Sources: Sources: see Figure 1 So how do the two major parties compare in terms of the seat status contested by women candidates in both parties? We have broken down the data into winnable seats (those with a margin of more than five percent), marginal seats (those with a margin of between -5 and 5 percent) and suicide seats (those that are considered opposition safe seats). Several points emerge as interesting. Looking first at winnable seats (Figure 5) we see that prior to 1998, the Coalition had a depressing record, with no women selected for a safe seat prior to 1984, and the increase from then was only slight. Indeed, while the Coalition began to show a significant increase in selecting women, throughout the 1980s most of these were being nominated for suicide seats. Page 18 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women Figure 5: Numbers of Women Preselected to Winnable Seats, 1975-2001 16 14 12 Number 10 Labor Coalition 8 6 4 2 0 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 election year Sources: see Figure 1 While Labor selected more women than the Coalition over the same period, their record in winnable seats was only marginally better, peaking at 5 in 1984 but then remaining at 4 until 1998. Although the total number of Labor women candidates increased unevenly over this period, almost all of the increases were absorbed by women standing in suicide seats. It is during the 1990s that new directions are visible in both parties. While we have already mentioned the substantial increase in Labor women nominated to safe seats in both the 1998 and 2001 elections, clearly a result of the 1994 quota rule, what is also apparent is a quadrupling in the number of Coalition women nominated for safe seats over the same two elections: elections in which the Coalition was re-elected to government. This can be partly explained by the large number of women who won marginal seats in the 1996 election and then went on in the 1998 election to turn these Page 19 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women into fairly safe Coalition seats.15 It might also be an indication of how valuable women candidates are in winning constituent support. Moreover, while Labor stood significantly more women than the Coalition, most of the increase is again absorbed by a doubling of the number of women contesting suicide seats. By comparison, the number of Coalition women standing for seats in this category falls away steadily after 1990 (Figure 6). In addition, both parties register considerable and comparable increases in the number of women nominated for marginal seats. Figure 6: Numbers of Women Preselected to Suicide Seats, 1975-2001 30 25 number 20 Labor Coalition 15 10 5 0 1975 1977 1980 1983 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 election Sources: see Figure 1 What then might this tell us about the contagion effect of quotas in the Australian House of Representatives? It appears that the ALP Inquiry in 1978 and the adoption of an affirmative action strategy in 1981 resulted in an increase in the total number of women See R. Whip, 2003. ‘The 1996 Australian Federal Election and its Aftermath: A Case for Equal Gender Representation.’ Australian Feminist Studies, 18, 40: 73-97, for an analysis of the influx of Coalition women into parliament after the 1996 election. 15 Page 20 JenniferCurtin and Kelly Sexton, Selecting and Electing Women candidates but was ineffectual in ensuring that 30 percent of these women were nominated to safe seats over the following three elections. From 1983 onwards, a similar steady increase in the total number of women is evident within the Coalition parties, but again with little impact on the nomination of women candidates to winnable seats. The adoption of the ALP quota in 1994, and its more explicit application and regime of adherence has ensured that within three election cycles the number of women nominated to winnable seats had increased substantially, and this increase has continued. Over the same time period the number of Coalition women selected for safe seats has also risen significantly, suggesting that it wants to be seen to be competitive with the ALP in terms of its commitment to political gender equality. Thus, while the chances of women being selected for winnable seats in single member districts remains an event that is fraught with politics, the evidence presented here suggests that candidate gender quotas initiated by one party in a tightly contested two party system can ensure an increase in women’s nomination across the political spectrum. Conclusions It is argued that three election cycles are needed for the impact of a candidate gender quota to become visible, but we would argue that the impact of a quota is enhanced if it coincides with a time of rebuilding while in opposition. That is, incumbents either lose their seats in the election as a result of the swing against the government, or they hold their seats but the desire to remain in parliament as an opposition backbencher for at least two terms (the usual minimal period of government in the Australian case) holds little attraction, especially if the incumbent has been a government minister with all the perks, power and status that brings. However, our results also suggest that inroads into winnable seats can be made by women even while their party is in government, particularly where an increasingly volatile electorate can result in an unpredictable number of safe and marginal seats. It would be valuable to revisit this data after the current Coalition has been in opposition for at least one term, particularly given it was successful in having many of its marginal women candidates elected alongside the women selected for safe seats. 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