Business analysis for over-the-top video participants August 2013 Analyst: Matt Stump In this issue: 6 Trending video, data and OTT numbers in 2020 8 The world according to Fox 13 Millenials might want cable afterall 14 LRG details Netflix crossover stats © One Touch Intelligence, LLC, 2004–2013. All rights reserved. The data implications of going over-the-top Issue: Sony and Intel appear closer to launching OTT services that will include live linear feeds of cable and broadcast networks. Background: With probable launches from Sony, Intel and perhaps others, the question arises as to how this will affect current MVPD data cap strategies. Implications: MVPDs face a tricky balancing act with data caps in an OTT world. If no data caps exist, are MVPDs welcoming video OTT competitors that could harm their business? And what are the bandwidth needs if more live viewing goes OTT? On the other hand, restrictive caps and data overage charges run the risk of alienating subscribers and public policy makers. Another added complication is that MVPDs may launch their own OTT services, which would require establishing a consistent data cap strategy across the board. The growing chorus of reports that some player — Sony, Intel or Apple — will launch an over-the-top service that would include live linear channels will add a new element to the age-old issues of bandwidth demands, transmission speeds and data caps. Ever since Internet video traffic ramped up — first with YouTube, then with Netflix, Hulu, Amazon and network and cable websites — MVPDs have tried to strike a balance between newly found data subscribers, the revenue they generate and the traffic load on the network. Some MVPDs have instituted data caps on usage. In reality, those caps are meant to push subscribers to higher speed tiers, where caps are less onerous, but where higher retail rates exist. But there also is an overage element to data caps, where subscribers pay extra fees if they go beyond prescribed data caps. At the same time, where lower caps exist, MVPDs have run into criticism, whether from public interest groups, consumers or regulators. Somewhat related to the data cap question is the issue of net neutrality. Most MVPDs have been able to tiptoe through that minefield without serious harm. But if OTT providers start stealing market share, the question lingers whether MVPDs would favor some traffic over others. That said, it appears unlikely that net neutrality will be the first pothole in the road if and when an OTT service provider launches. A more likely area of trouble will be with data caps. A core question on data caps is this: If Sony or Intel or another challenger launches an OTT service that includes live linear channels, and a subscriber moves from an MVPD to that OTT provider, how much “data” will they consume in a given month if they keep their same TV viewing habits? The answer is that there is no simple answer. Encoding rates, transmission speeds, even in-home devices will all play a role in determining how much bandwidth gets used. To start, however, let’s look at the current data cap rates for the various MVPDs: AT&T DSL: 150 GB U-verse: 250 GB Penalty: Subs pay $10 for every 50 GB over Verizon FiOS: None DSL: None CenturyLink DSL 1.5 Mbps: 150 GB 1.5 Mbps +: 2 250 GB VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 Comcast XFINITY INTERNET PACKAGE DATA USAGE ALLOWANCE Economy 300 GB Economy Plus 300 GB Internet Essentials 300 GB Performance Starter 300 GB Performance 300 GB Blast! 350 GB Extreme 50 450 GB Extreme 105 600 GB Comcast also said “in the Fresno, Calif., market, we will begin trialing a Flexible-Data Option specifically designed for casual or light Internet users who typically use 5 GB of data or less a month. This option will be available only to Economy Plus customers and will provide a $5 credit if a customer’s total monthly data usage is less than or equal to 5 GB per month. However, if a customer that chooses this option uses more than 5 GB of data in any given month, then she will not receive the $5 credit, and will be charged an additional $1 for each gigabyte of data used over the 5 GB included in the Flexible-Data Option. In Central Kentucky, Savannah, Ga., and Jackson, Miss., we will begin a trial which will increase our data usage allowance for all XFINITY Internet tiers to 300 GB per month and also offer additional gigabytes in increments/blocks (e.g., $10 per 50 GB). During this trial, XFINITY Internet Economy Plus customers in these markets can choose to enroll in the Flexible-Data Option which will modify their data usage allowance from 300 GB to 5 GB, and provide a $5 credit if their total monthly data usage is less than or equal to 5 GB per month. If customers choose this option and uses more than 5 GB of data in any given month, then they will not receive the $5 credit and will be charged an additional $1 for each gigabyte of data used over the 5 GB included in the Flexible-Data Option.” Time Warner Cable Data caps: None for core Internet plans. However, TWC has deployed an “Essentials Plan,” which limits subscribers to 5 GB of data usage a month in exchange for a $5 discount to their monthly bill. Time Warner Cable says customers can opt-in or opt-out of the deal at any time, and subscribers will get a “meter” to let them see where they stand over the period. Upon going over their limit, customers will be charged $1 per GB of usage, not to exceed $25 a month, the company says. 3 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 Cox: Starter: 50 GB Essential: 100 GB Preferred: 250 GB Premier: 300 GB Ultimate: 400 GB Charter: Lite/Express: 100 GB Plus/Max: 250 GB Ultra: 500 GB Cablevision Systems Corp. None Of all the providers listed above, Cox has detailed on its website how to translate viewing usage to data caps. The MSO equates the 250 GB cap to 250 30-minute HD shows, the 300 GB to 300 shows and 400 GB to 400 TV shows. The 250 GB is a pretty common data cap, so the 250 30-minute shows equate to 125 hours of programming. Over 30 days, that would equate to a bit more four hours per day of viewing. In Nielsen’s quarterly viewing reports, the company lists the average amount of time a TV set is on each day at five hours. Using that math, the 250 GB cap would seem to be able to handle most of the typical viewing done in a home in a given month. But a few things need to be kept in mind. First, that presupposes there will be no other data activity going on in that home, which is unrealistic. Comcast says its average data use in 2012 was 16 GB per month, a figure that could have climbed to 20 GB in 2013. Even if a home subscribes to an OTT service from Sony or Intel, it would not stop its other data use. Netflix, Hulu and Amazon viewing would continue. There is also the multiplier effect. In any cable home or in a Verizon FiOS home, whether one TV set is on or three or four TV sets are on, the total bandwidth being used stays relatively the same, since the linear channels are being delivered in broadcast mode. But a Sony OTT model will behave a lot like AT&T’s U-verse. If three streams are in use, three times the bandwidth will be necessary. In that world, a 250 GB cap that handles upwards of five hours a day may not be all that large. It’s also important to remember that Nielsen’s five-hour daily figure is an average. Some homes only watch two hours a day, while others have the TV on for eight hours. Streaming eight hours of content a day will surely put a home past the 250 GB cap mark. 4 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 Cox’s numbers Data Usage Guide SERVICE LEVEL DATA USAGE ALLOWANCE AUDIO FILES — HIGH QUALITY HI RES PHOTOS # OF 30 MIN. HD TV SHOWS # OF 120 MIN. HD MOVIES UPLOAD OR DOWNLOAD UPLOAD OR DOWNLOAD STREAMING OR DOWNLOAD STREAMING OR DOWNLOAD 50 GB 7,870 10,240 not recommended for optimal customer experience Essential 100 GB 15,750 20,480 not recommended for optimal customer experience Preferred 250 GB 39,380 51,200 250 shows 60 movies Premier 300 GB 47,260 61,440 300 shows 75 movies 400 GB 63,010 81,920 400 shows 100 movies Usage period is approximately 1 month. Your usage resets at the beginning of each period. 6.5MB = 4 min. length audio file in high quality, such as iTunes or Google Music Starter Ultimate Definitions As OTT entrants launch in the marketplace, cable and telco broadband providers will have to make decisions on data caps and usage. And perhaps the most challenging issue is this: The American public, even with cable, has never paid on the basis of how much TV they watched in a given day or month. The monthly cable, DBS or telco video bill is the same, whether that home watches only 30 minutes a day or eight hours a day. What Americans are “used to” as a TV behavior is barreling towards a potential economic/technology showdown that was unforeseen just a few short years ago. 5 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 What will the world look like in seven years? Back in 2005, a scant eight years ago, there was no Hulu Plus or Amazon Instant Video or a Netflix streaming service. MPVD subscribers stood at 89 million homes, and broadband was in 50 million homes (see chart below). Total Subscribers (millions) 2005 70M 65 60M 50M 40M 29 30M 24 21 20M 10M 0 CABLE DBS 0 0 TELCO NETFLIX VIDEO 0 0 AMAZON HULU PLUS INTERNET VIDEO But the rise in Internet capacity allowed for the free flow of video through data pipes into subscribers homes. By 2013, pay TV penetration continued to rise (to 100 million), but broadband grew at a faster rate (to 83 million homes) and the rise of subscription-based video services on the Internet took hold. CABLE TELCO BROADBAND Source: OTI Netflix now counts 30 million subscribers, Amazon Prime an estimated 10 million and Hulu Plus 4 million. Total Subscribers (millions) 2013 70M 60M 56 48 50M 40M 35 34 30 30M 20M 10 10M 10 4 0 CABLE DBS VIDEO TELCO NETFLIX AMAZON HULU PLUS INTERNET VIDEO VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 TELCO BROADBAND Source: OTI 6 CABLE While much of Netflix’s base originated from the DVD business that was unrelated to the Internet, and Amazon Prime launched as a preferred vehicle for the delivery of goods, everyone in that subscriber group can stream video from those websites — and revenue of $7.99 a month or $79 per year or $4.99 per month is attached to it. So that begs the question what will the world look like in 2020, a scant seven years from now. Many Wall Street analysts predict the pay TV industry will see a gradual decline of 1 million subscribers per year in the coming years. The slope of that decline will hinge on a bunch of factors, but the availability of subscription content on the Internet will be the likely driving force. In the chart below, the pay TV estimate for 2020 is 90 million homes, or a loss of 10 million homes over that seven-year time period. But the number of broadband homes is projected at 94 million. Total Subscribers (millions) 2020 70M 60 60M 50M 50 40 40M 34 30M 24 20 20M 16 10 10M 0 CABLE DBS VIDEO TELCO NETFLIX AMAZON HULU PLUS INTERNET VIDEO It stands to reason that if more OTT video providers enter the market, traditional pay TV video growth will be impacted. What’s not included in this chart are subscriber figures for new OTT entrants. Given the growth of Verizon and AT&T as new entrants with full video packages as well as the growth of Netflix (with less than $10 a month packages), one could argue that Sony, Intel and Apple could all generate at least 5 million “OTT subscriptions” over the next seven years. But the MVPDs won’t necessarily stand still. Many would likely launch their own OTT subscription packages (Cox has already done so), adding a broadband video RGU to the stat tables. 7 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 TELCO BROADBAND Source: OTI And the total number of SVOD subscribers to Netflix, Amazon and Hulu Plus is projected at 70 million, up from today’s 44 million. Based on what has occurred in the past eight years, there is a definite shift to SVOD growth over broadband, as well as broadband growth. CABLE One key to judging what the numbers would look like is the revenue attached to them. Netflix, Amazon and Hulu Plus are all sub-$10 monthly per customer. Programmers want Sony and Intel to take their full packages of networks. If Sony and Intel react like Verizon and AT&T, those packages would be priced in the $70 to $80 monthly range. But without plant costs, one could see Sony and Intel offering such packages for $40 or $50 monthly. And there also exists the possibility of smaller bundles of programming, perhaps sports only at $30 monthly, or kids and family at $20 monthly. Whole new rate cards could be established that would translate into whole new packages that don’t follow the nice neat models present today, meaning not all OTT video subscriptions will be created equal. The world according to 21st Century Fox Earlier this summer, News Corp. split into two companies, with News Corp. proper retaining its publishing assets and new sister company 21st Century Fox taking the cable, broadcast, programming and worldwide satellite assets. As a new public company, the top executives of 21st Century Fox held an all-day financial analyst meeting Aug. 8 in Los Angeles. The presentation was chock-full of content financials, ratings and content strategy insights into how Fox is approaching the new world order, and by extension Fox’s peer competitor group. Here are some of the key takeaways, as well as insights from CEO Chase Carey. The ratings Although we’ve seen some stats from CBS on the amount of viewing that is taking place after live broadcast and on alternative platforms, Fox took the discussion to a higher level during its analyst presentation with some eyeopening stats for its top broadcast shows. The percentage gain in ratings across seven days, versus live plus same-day ratings, ranged from a lift of 20% to as high as 65%. Broadcast networks are only getting paid for live plus three-day ratings, so any viewing after day three is not being monetized. 8 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 The chart below shows just how important the push is to get ratings measured up to seven days after a show airs and beyond that. Fox’s show The Following generates close to one third of its viewing outside of today’s C3 cycle. Of the 16.27 million viewing audience, a bit less than 10% comes from Fox.com and Hulu, which is twice the number coming from VOD’s 640,000 views. Encores on the linear channel get another 2.5 million viewers. In the first 30 days after a New Girl episode premieres, some 33% of viewing comes from VOD (8%) and Fox.com and Hulu (25%). The Family Guy numbers are even more pronounced, with 37% of the viewing coming from VOD and Fox.com and Hulu. 9 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 What’s striking about the slide below is how much catch-up viewing is going on within VOD platforms across all time periods, and how evenly that viewing occurs. Some 23% of viewing was recorded in the first three days, then about 34% in days four through seven. Another 20% of viewing occurred between days eight and 15, then 23% from days 16 through 30. There was an actual increase in viewing two weeks out from when a program first aired. The long tail of VOD viewing is getting longer and longer and viewers are discovering shows and going back to watch earlier episodes. In even the recent past, most executives thought consumers would only watch in the first week a program was on and then move to something else. That assumption is now being replaced with the idea that viewers will catchup with a show even after several weeks, which means even an arbitrary 30 day cut-off may be too soon and that we’ll be talking about viewing 45 and 60 days out in the coming years. 10 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 The value of Fox’s programming assets It’s important to remember that the value Netflix or Amazon places on content for their new world digital SVOD services is derived from old world numbers. If a show does not generate ratings in the traditional world or some kind of following, it doesn’t receive value in the digital realm. Gary Newman, chairman of 21st Century Fox Television, told analysts that Modern Family, produced by Fox for ABC, will be a $1 billion asset for the company in syndication and digital sales. How I Met Your Mother isn’t that far behind, while Burn Notice and White Collar (both on USA) will earn hundreds of millions of dollars in profits. Modern Family will get $5 million per episodes in its first cycle with USA and TV stations, Newman said. At 96 episodes over the first four years of the show (season five premieres next month on ABC), that’s upwards of $500 million, just in traditional syndication, even before the show hits digital platforms. Increasingly, however, programmers are making cross-platform deals at the same time. Glee has been sold to Oxygen, local TV stations and Netflix and Amazon for a combined take of $1.5 million per episode. Across 66 episodes that’s a cool $100 million. While Fox did not disclose the breakdown, the majority of that revenue is still likely coming from the cable and broadcast outlets. Sons of Anarchy did even better, generating $3 million per episode across its syndication runs (including Netflix and Amazon) for its 53 episodes, which means a cash flow generation north of $150 million. Newman shared a few more stats that were perhaps even more interesting, because it dealt with library product, where values are sometimes difficult to ascertain. “We recently licensed our Emmy-winning animated comedy, King of The Hill, to Turner in a 5-year deal in excess of $100 million that takes us through fiscal year ‘18,” he said. “M*A*S*H is among the most iconic titles in the history of our medium. It’s an evergreen title for us that we’ve licensed continually for nearly 35 years and still contributes on average about $20 million a year to our bottom line. So with such titles as these — the X-Files, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, and 24, not to mention our popular current series when they eventually end their original runs, we have every expectation of sizable library profits for many years to come.” The granddaddy of off-network fare will be The Simpsons (600 episodes), which will be sold into the aftermarket sometime next year. But already Fox has generated $25 million in royalties from a Simpsons game app it developed. Newman also said EST is growing. “EST has also proven to be valuable,” he said. “This business has more than doubled for us over the past three years, driven primarily by our strong serialized cable dramas, Homeland, Sons of Anarchy and American Horror Story. And it’s now a meaningful piece of the home entertainment pie.” 11 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 “All of these digital revenues didn't even exist until recently and now are generating roughly $500 million annually to the studio,” Newman said. “That said, while we are an industry leader, a top SVOD player and a mobile pioneer with The Simpsons, our digital strategy has been and will remain judicious and disciplined, and we will continue to grow that business by capitalizing on all the new opportunities ahead.” Thoughts from Chase Carey Early on in the analyst presentation, 21st Century Fox President Chase Carey took on the issues of bundling, cord cutting and a la carte. A la carte, he said, was the easy part. “A la carte is a fantasy,” he said. “Consumers actually want to bundle; they just want a different bundle. The reality is that any new bundle would create other issues like higher costs for individual channels. Actually, today's bundle is a great consumer proposition. We do not believe it will materially change in the short to medium term. With so many agreements tied to the bundle, the discussion around this issue is about negotiating leverage and headlines, not real change.” Carey downplayed cord cutting, even being a bit dismissive of Netflix and YouTube. “Let me be clear, Netflix is a channel, not an alternative. YouTube is not a replacement and they’re already overhauling recent efforts in branded content. There isn’t an alternative today or even on the horizon. The U.S. is a mature market, but we see no meaningful evidence of cord cutting today, subscribers were essentially flat the last 12 months.” But he did allow the jury is still out on today’s 20-somethings, saying the “one legitimate issue is the 20-year old cord nevers. It remains to be seen what happens as this generation ages, but what is clear is that this is an issue that will play out over the next 10-plus years, not the next three. Additionally, we will continue to participate in the over-the-top market with our investment in Hulu, an investment we recently decided to maintain and with our partners committed to significant further investment.” He went on to take a shot at “mediocre” channels, rhetoric that MVPDs would likely cheer. “The increasing cost of the bundle will create pressures. First, weaker channels will and should get squeezed. Consumers have more than enough choice so the priority has shifted to quality, not quantity. We want every one of our channels to strive, to stand on its own two feet. We would rather have a bouquet of great channels than acres of the mediocre ones making the same profit. Furthermore, the margin on video for the distributors will continue to get squeezed by strong content. Distributors need the content to drive their overall business. The industry would be better off if they used their existing strengths to build new revenue streams from areas like on demand, targeted advertising and other new services.” 12 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 Surprising research from TDG The Diffusion Group, a Plano, Tex.-based research firm that has predicted cord cutting and perils facing existing MVPDs with some exuberance over the years, has released new research from which the traditional industry can take some heart. It is not a foregone conclusion that the 20-somethings who are not MVPD subscribers today will remain MVPD subscribers forever. In a survey of 18- to 24-year-olds, 51.4% said they signed up for pay TV service immediately after moving into their new residence. Some 38% said they delayed a decision for a period of time but they still signed up by the time they were 24 and 10.6% said they never signed up for service. “By the time they turn 24, 89% of Late Millennials living on their own subscribe to a traditional pay TV service, which is about the average penetration of incumbent pay-TV across all broadband households,” wrote TDG president Michael Greeson. “This is good news for both services providers and networks. Whether they maintain that subscription over time, and for how long, is another question.” Despite those survey results, Greeson added the firm’s usual caution on this subject. “A number of statistical indicators suggest younger consumers are leaning away from incumbent pay-TV as a default home TV choice, instead turning to alternate TV sources or viewing online video on non-television platforms. That said, these are behaviors and preferences expressed in early adulthood, prior to landing a decent job, marriage, having children, and moving up the career ladder. As the context changes, says traditional wisdom, so too will their attitude regarding the worth and necessity of traditional pay TV services. MVPDs have banked on this fact for several decades and this assumption has historically held true.” 13 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 LRG details Netflix/nonpay TV homes New research from Leichtman Research Group finds that 40% of non-pay TV homes subscribe to Netflix, 11% to Amazon Prime and 7% to Hulu Plus. Of the 1,219 homes LRG surveyed, 42% of non-pay TV subs got at least one digital SVOD service. There are roughly 14 million non-pay TV homes in the U.S. If Netflix is in 40% of this, that’s roughly 5.6 million homes, meaning Netflix’s other 24.4 million subscribers, or about 80% of its base, does subscribe to pay TV service. LRG added that 8% of all TV homes are watching over-the-air broadcast TV only, based on its survey, versus 10% in 2010, with 6% watching a combination of OTA and OTT programming. The latter includes 1% of all homes that do not subscribe to an MVPD primarily because they can catch all they want via the Internet or Netflix. Google tops comScore July numbers Some 187 million Americans — more than half the population — watched 48 billion online videos in July, according to comScore, with a total of 19.6 billion video ads viewed. Google ranked first with 167.9 million unique viewers (up 6% since June), followed by Facebook with 61.3 million, AOL Inc. with 57.9 million, VEVO with 49.6 million and Microsoft with 49.6 million. VEVO topped YouTube’s channel partner list in July, with 47.6 million viewers, followed by Fullscreen (34.5 million viewers) and Maker Studios (28.6 million). Top U.S. Online Video Content Properties Ranked by Unique Video Viewers (July 2013) Total U.S. – Home and Work Locations. Content Videos Only (Ad Videos Not Included) PROPERTY VIDEOS (000)* MINUTES PER VIEWER 187,430 48,466,326 1,353.8 167,894 17,717,106 544.0 Facebook 61,320 741,336 21.6 AOL, Inc. 57,857 792,719 50.1 VEVO 49,635 613,794 42.1 Microsoft Sites 49,610 668,442 34.0 NDN 49,142 560,024 92.3 Yahoo! Sites 42,043 324,436 76.7 Viacom Digital 39,721 446,401 48.1 Amazon Sites 37,990 146,291 26.0 Turner Digital 30,627 254,803 38.5 Total Internet: Total Audience Google Sites TOTAL UNIQUE VIEWERS (000) Source: comScore Video Metrix *A video is defined as any streamed segment of audiovisual content, including both progressive downloads and live streams. For long-form, segmented content, (e.g. television episodes with ad pods in the middle) each segment of the content is counted as a distinct video stream. Video views are inclusive of both user-initiated and auto-played videos that are viewed for longer than 3 seconds. 14 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 Top YouTube Partner Channels* Ranked by Unique Video Viewers (July 2013) Total U.S. – Home and Work Locations. Content Videos Only (Ad Videos Not Included) PROPERTY TOTAL UNIQUE VIEWERS (000) VIDEOS (000) MINUTES PER VIEWER VEVO @ YouTube 47,635 581,895 40.6 Fullscreen @ YouTube 34,465 353,275 32.7 Maker Studios Inc. @ YouTube 28,594 530,738 69.6 Warner Music @ YouTube 27,648 164,463 19.1 ZEFR @ YouTube 26,473 136,972 14.3 The Orchard @ YouTube 22,129 86,843 11.4 Machinima @ YouTube 18,177 417,479 91.8 UMG @ YouTube 16,948 56,890 9.6 BroadbandTV @ YouTube 16,033 136,400 28.1 SonyBMG @ YouTube 13,987 39,669 8.3 Other notable findings from July 2013 include: • 86.6% of the U.S. Internet audience viewed online video. • The duration of the average online content video was 5.2 minutes, while the average online video ad was 0.4 minutes. • Video ads accounted for 28.8% of all videos viewed and 2.8% of all minutes spent viewing video online. 15 VIDEOTRAK — August 2013 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Matt Stump, Executive Vice President, Industry Intelligence [email protected] Matt Stump has been analyzing the media and entertainment industries for over 30 years. He monitors the competitive media and entertainment landscape on a daily basis for One Touch Intelligence and serves as the primary writer and analyst for the company’s TELCOTRAK®, DBSTRAK®, VIDEOTRAK® and VIDEOTRAK® Executive Digest reports. He served as a reporter and editor for Broadcasting, Cable World, On Demand and Multichannel News magazines from 1980–2006, before joining One Touch Intelligence in May 2006. ABOUT VIDEOTRAK® The most disruptive technology in video today also offers the most opportunity for industry participants. To help clients make smart, informed business decisions about Internet video, One Touch Intelligence offers a synthesis of research reports, market analysis and monitoring services, all produced by experienced, knowledgeable industry analysts. 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