Accident risk for and accident factors
regarding non-motorized road users in
Denmark
– a central road safety challenge with deficient
data
Niels Agerholm
Associate Professor
Aalborg University
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Camilla Sloth Andersen
PhD Candidate
Aalborg University
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 1 of
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
International perspective
The Danish situation
The data problem
Safety improvements
Summary
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 2 of
An international perspective
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 3 of
Fatalities in an international perspective
• 1.3 million fatalities each year (2011)
• Vulnerable Road Users (VRU) have a high share of
these
• 22% were pedestrians
• 5% were cyclists
• 19% were unspecified (most were reasonable pedestrians)
• Significant variations around the world
• ~500,000 pedestrian fatalities/year
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 4 of
Pedestrian fatalities: who and how?
•
•
•
•
•
Majority +40 years old
Males are 2.5 times more exposed
Clear socio-economic skewness
Rural-Urban distribution is unclear
About 70% when crossing the road
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 5 of
Main reasons
•
•
•
•
Inappropriate speed causes the fatalities
High BAC among (grown-up) pedestrian fatalities
Poor pedestrian facilities
Inadequate visibility
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 6 of
Why is speeding crucial?
Road safety and speed are close
connected
•Too high speed increase the risk
substantial
•Braking distance increase by the
square of the speed increase
•The energy in a collision increases
similar
•The reaction time is unchanged
•Speed variation increases a lot
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Pedestrian fatalities
Rosen, Stigson, Sander, 2011
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 7 of
Injured in an international perspective
•
•
•
•
+50 million injured each year (2011)
Highly uncertain number
VRU have reasonable a very high share of these
Dark figures are considerable
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 8 of
The Danish situation
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 9 of
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 10 of
The Danish road infrastructure
• 5.6 million inhabitants
• 43,000 km2
• Road network:
• State: 3,800 km (1,022 km with freeway)
• Municipalities: 68,600 km
• Personal transportation:
• 0.4 personal car/inhabitant
• 2nd highest cyclist share in the world
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 11 of
3 statistically approaches – 3 different results
• Police-reported injured (official accident statistics)
• Injured healthcare-reported
• Injured pedestrians without counterpart
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 12 of
Police-reported injured and fatalities
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 13 of
What show the official statistics in Denmark?
• The fatality rate (all fatalities) has decreased significant
the last 5 years
• 407 (2008) to 167 (2012) (212 in 2013)
• 29% of the fatalities were non-motorised road users
(NMRU) : pedestrian: 17% ; cyclists: 12% (2010-2012)
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 14 of
What show the official statistics in Denmark?
• Undoubtedly a significant reduction in the number of
fatalities ☺
• NMRU increase their share
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 15 of
What shows the official statistics in Denmark?
• Injured NMRU seems to be a declining problem?
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 16 of
Healthcare-reported injured
•
A pedestrian is only an injury
regarding traffic accident if
there is a counterpart!
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 17 of
Injured cyclists
• Significant dark figures (95.2% in total)
• 77% are single accidents (dark figure: 99.4%)
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 18 of
Injured pedestrians – the real story?
• 1,400 injured pedestrians with counterpart
• Pedestrian in single accidents:
• ~11,000 injured on the road network in 2011
• Skid and fall accidents
• Bumpy surfaces
• Lack of marked kerbs
• Insufficient lighting
• (alcohol?)
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 19 of
Solutions?
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 20 of
Solutions can be divided into 3 types
• NMRU injured due to counterparts
• Single cyclist accidents
• Single pedestrian accidents
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 21 of
NMRU injured due to counterparts
•
•
•
•
•
•
Traditional engineering solutions
Reduced speeding
Focus on alcohol
More visibility:
• Day time running light on bikes
• All time use of reflectors
• Better street light
ITS
Loss-reducing measures:
• Mandatory bicycle helmets
• Speed calming (for cars and bikes!)
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 22 of
Single cyclist accidents
• Traditional engineering solutions
• Better street light
• Focus on alcohol use
• Loss-reducing measures:
• Bicycle helmets
• Focus on electrical bikes
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 23 of
Single pedestrian accidents
• Traditional engineering solutions
• Keep the surface on an acceptable level
• Better street light
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 24 of
Summary
NMRU injured due
to counterparts
Single cyclist
accidents
Single pedestrian
accidents
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Number of injured
Development in the last
decade
Sufficient
tools
Moderate (although
still serious)
Slightly decreasing
Yes
Very high
Unchanged
Partly
High
Unknown
No
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 25 of
Summary
• Official accident reports are (more or less) useless regarding
NMRU
• We have many tools to cope with injured with counterparts
• We have few tools to cope with single cyclist accidents
• We have virtually no tools (or we cannot afford) to cope with
single pedestrian accidents
• NMRU in single accidents need more attention in the
future!
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 26 of
Thank You☺
Niels Agerholm
Traffic Research Group
Aalborg University
+45 61 78 04 55
[email protected]
ICTCT Ribeirão Preto 2014
Niels Agerholm – Camilla Sloth Andersen – Traffic Research Group – Aalborg University
No. 27 of