Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) E. SURFACE TRANSIT EXISTING CONDITIONS LOCAL BUS SERVICE The East Side of Manhattan, which includes some of the most heavily traveled bus corridors in the United States, is well served by frequent and comprehensive bus transportation service. There is at least one NYCT local bus route on every north-south avenue, except on Park Avenue north of Grand Central Terminal. Portions of Fifth and Madison Avenues in East Midtown have as many as six local bus routes. The eastern edge of East Midtown, the Upper East Side, and East Harlem, on the other hand, are served by a limited number of bus routes, and its residents must often walk more than 5 to 10 minutes to get to the nearest subway station. The M15 is the only local bus route serving the densely populated First and Second Avenue corridors. Operating at 2-3 minute headways, its high volume ridership makes it the highest ridership bus route in North America. Therefore, the First and Second Avenue corridors are a primary focus of this MIS/DEIS. The Lower East Side and Lower Manhattan are served by local bus routes on every major northsouth avenue. The Lower East Side represents another major focus of this MIS/DEIS. Its highdensity residential population typically requires buses to access subway stations, which are often not located within convenient walking distances. Lower Manhattan, on the other hand, has a highly developed subway network, and local bus use is less pronounced there. The study area is also well served by crosstown bus service. Most of the major crosstown streets, e.g., 34th, 79th, and 86th Streets, have at least one local bus route, providing transportation from river to river. Figures 9E-1 through 9E-5 depict the bus routes in the study area. An overview of the major bus corridors and other key routes is presented below: Corridor Key Routes Fifth and Madison Avenues Lexington and Third Avenues First and Second Avenues York Avenue Avenues A, B, C, and D East Broadway and Madison Street (Lower East Side) Allen Street (Lower East Side) and Water Street (Lower Manhattan) M1, M2, M3, M4, and, to a lesser degree, Q32 M98, M101, M102, and M103 M15 M31 M9, M14, and M21 M9 and M22 M15 There are a number of other routes serving major and minor crosstown streets throughout the study area. Frequency of bus service is generally high, with scheduled headways (the time between buses) on some routes as low as 2 minutes during the peak periods (e.g., on the M15 in the AM peak). As shown in Table 9E-1, hundreds of buses are in operation in the study area during peak hours. Table 9E-2 presents the scheduled headways for the local bus routes by time period for most north-south routes and key crosstown routes serving the study area. Almost 60 percent of the local bus routes in the area provide service 24 hours a day, seven days per week. 9E-1 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS Table 9E-1 Scheduled Local Buses in the AM Peak Hour Zone No. of Buses Lower Manhattan 106 Lower East Side 171 East Midtown 334 Upper East Side 206 East Harlem 157 Note: Number of buses includes north-south and east-west routes. Source: 1994 NYCT Route profiles. Table 9E-2 NYCT Local Bus Routes: Bus Headways for Key Routes Routes Weekday Service Saturday AM Midday PM Evening (min) (min) (min) (min) Midday (min) NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES M1: Fifth/Madison Aves. 6 8 5 M2: Fifth/Madison Aves./Powell Blvd. 8 8 7 M3: Fifth/Madison Aves./St. Nicholas Ave. 7 9 9 M4: Fifth/Madison Aves./Broadway 3 8 4 M5: Fifth Ave./Ave. of the Americas/Riverside Dr. 5 10 7 M6: Seventh Ave./Broadway/Ave. of the Americas 10 10 9 M9: Ave. B/East Broadway 8 15 10 M15: First/Second Aves. 2 3 2 M31: 57th St./York Ave. 3 10 4 M98: Washington Hts-Midtown Ltd Third/Lexington Aves. 8 1 Trip 10 M101: Third/Lexington/Amsterdam Aves. 5 6 6 M102: Third/Lexington Aves./Malcolm X Blvd. 6 12 8 M103: Third/Lexington Aves. 12 12 12 B51: Fulton Mall-Lower Manhattan (Manhattan Bridge) 15 30 10 Q32: Penn Station-Jackson Hts, Madison/Fifth Aves. 8 11 8 EAST-WEST ROUTES M8: 8th/9th Sts. 9 9 9 M14: 14th St./Ave. A 8 10 9 M14: 14th St./Aves. C/D 3 6 4 M16: 34th St. 9 12 12 M21: Houston St./Ave. C 15 20 15 M22: Madison/Chambers Sts. 8 15 10 B39: Williamsburg-Lower East Side/Delancey St. 12 15 12 Note: — Indicates that there is no service. Source: 1994 NYCT Route Profiles updated by the NYCT Scheduling Department. 9E-2 11 15 10 15 11 12 30 3 9 1 Trip 10 12 15 30 10 10 10 10 8 10 9 30 4 12 — 9 9 12 — 10 12 10 5 20 15 15 20 20 10 6 12 20 12 12 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) NYCT EXPRESS BUS SERVICE NYCT operates three express bus routes within Manhattan, the X25, the X90, and the X92, on weekdays only. The X25, which begins opposite GCT, provides service primarily for MetroNorth Railroad customers traveling to and from the Wall Street area. It provides an alternate connection between these two nodes, other than the Lexington Avenue subway. Both the X90 and the X92 provide bus service from the residential sections of the Upper East Side to the Lower Manhattan Financial District. All three express bus routes operate southbound in the AM peak period and northbound in the PM peak period, generally at 10- to 20-minute headways. NYCT also operates three express bus routes from Brooklyn into Manhattan, four routes from Queens, and 19 routes from Staten Island. These buses generally operate at headways ranging from 5 to 30 minutes. These routes are oriented to the Lower Manhattan and Midtown Manhattan commercial districts. PRIVATE EXPRESS BUS SERVICE NYCDOT has granted express bus franchises to various private companies to provide express bus service from parts of the Bronx, Brooklyn, and Queens into the Manhattan CBDs. Service is provided either to the Midtown area or to the Wall Street area, although some bus routes provide service to both destinations. Non-franchised commuter service from Staten Island generally travels through New Jersey to Manhattan via the Holland Tunnel. These bus companies are not franchised by NYCDOT but operate under licenses granted by the Interstate Commerce Commission (ICC). Service to and from the Bronx is provided by two bus companies: Liberty Lines Express, Inc. and New York Bus Service. Liberty Lines operates throughout the Bronx, but concentrates service on the west side of the borough including the Riverdale section, with limited service from Yonkers. New York Bus Service operates predominantly on the east side of the Bronx. Frequent service is provided during the AM and PM peak periods. The Command Bus Company, Inc. provides express bus service from the Bergen Beach, Canarsie, Kingsbay, and Gerritsen Beach sections of Brooklyn into Lower Manhattan, the Lower East Side, and East Midtown. There is frequent service from Brooklyn in the AM peak period; some routes operate with headways as low as 10 minutes. During the PM peak period, scheduled headways of between 10 and 15 minutes are common. Express bus service from Queens is provided by four bus companies: Green Lines, Jamaica Buses, Inc., Queens Surface Corporation, and the Triboro Coach Corporation. Green Lines provides express service from almost a dozen neighborhoods including: Rockaway Park, Howard Beach, Forest Hills, and Woodhaven. Rochdale Village is served by Jamaica Buses, Inc. Queens Surface Corporation provides service to and from Fresh Meadows, Clearview, Jewel Avenue, and Bayside, while the Triboro Coach Corporation serves the Rego Park, Jackson Heights, and Forest Hills areas. Headways vary significantly route by route. Express bus service is also provided into Manhattan from several areas outside of New York City. The Bee-Line System provides service from White Plains and Tarrytown in Westchester County, while Monsey Trails provides limited bus service to and from Rockland County. Three bus companies provide service from Suffolk County: Sunrise Express, Hampton Express Inc., 9E-3 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS and the Hampton Jitney. The Sunrise Express provides one round trip per day from Greenport on the north fork of Long Island. Both Hampton Express Inc. and the Hampton Jitney provide service from Montauk and Southampton on the south fork. BUS PREFERENTIAL TREATMENTS The large volumes of autos, taxis, and trucks competing for street space with buses contribute to congested traffic conditions and low bus travel speeds. NYCT has implemented "limited-stop" bus service and, with NYCDOT, priority bus lane treatments, as two means of increasing travel speeds and travel time reliability. Bus routes operating with "limited-stop" service stop only at major cross streets and transfer points, often traveling up to eight blocks between stops. Observations indicate that, between stops, limited-stop service may operate in the third or even the fourth lane from the curb to avoid conflicts with slower traffic and curb parkers. Passengers frequently prefer to let regular buses go by and wait for a limited-stop bus, which operates at a higher speed and reduces overall travel times. Within the study area, NYCT provides limited-stop service on the M1, M2, M4, M5, M15, M98, and M101. Limited-stop service is provided in the peak direction, i.e., southbound in the AM and northbound in the PM, during rush hours on the M1 and M4 routes on selected trips. The M98 has limited-stop service in both directions during weekday peak periods. The M2 limited stop service has been expanded to operate on Saturdays in the southbound direction from 10 AM to 6 PM and between 11 AM and 7 PM northbound between 110th and 8th Streets. The M3, M5, and M101 routes provide limited-stop service in both directions from 7 AM to 7 PM on weekdays. The most frequent limited-stop service is provided by the M15, which has limited-stop north- and southbound service weekdays from 7 AM to 8 PM, and on weekends from 10 AM to 6 PM. For more than 15 years, NYCT, in cooperation with NYCDOT, has created a system of priority bus treatments in Manhattan. By assigning preference to buses, and in some cases occupied taxicabs, more people can be moved per lane of moving traffic. The Hub Bound Travel Report 1991, prepared by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, indicated that the Fifth Avenue bus lane carried 4,340 passengers in a single lane during the AM peak hour. The remaining three mixed-use travel lanes carried 2,932 people in the same hour, or fewer than 1,000 people per lane. Most of the avenues, and some of the major crosstown streets, currently have one or more lanes exclusively for buses during certain hours of the day. As indicated in Table 9E-3, priority bus treatments in Manhattan range from basic bus-only curb lanes, to a two-block contraflow bus lane on Second Avenue, that serves the Queensboro Bridge, and to a "transitway" on 49th and 50th Streets between Third and Eighth Avenues. These priority bus treatments are depicted in Figure 9E-6. One of the most well-known bus priority treatments in Manhattan is the Madison Avenue dual bus lanes. Implemented in the late 1970's, the Madison Avenue dual bus lane reserves the curb lane and the immediately adjacent travel lane exclusively for buses, from 42nd Street to 59th Street from 2-7 PM. (From 42nd Street to 46th Street, occupied taxicabs may use the dual bus lanes to make right turns for access to GCT.) The dual bus lanes were designed to allow for a moving bus to bypass a curb lane occupied by buses loading or unloading passengers. At the 9E-4 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) Table 9E-3 Manhattan Priority Bus Lanes Location Description First Avenue The priority bus lane operates between 34th and 96th Streets during the hours of 4-7 PM. Second Avenue The priority bus lanes operate between 96th and 72nd Streets during the hours of 7-10 AM and between 72nd and 14th Streets during the hours of 7-10 AM and 4-7 PM. The contraflow bus lane operates between 57th Street and the Queensboro Bridge during the hours of 4-7 PM. Third Avenue The priority bus lane operates between 36th and 58th Streets during the hours of 7 AM-7 PM. Lexington Avenue The priority bus lanes operate between 60th and 47th Streets during the hours of 7 AM to 7 PM and between 47th and 30th Streets during the hours of 7 AM to 1 PM. Madison Avenue The priority bus lanes (i.e., dual bus lanes) operate between 42nd and 59th Streets during the hours of 2-7 PM. Fifth Avenue The priority bus lane operates between 59th and 34th Streets from 7 AM7 PM. Broadway The priority bus lanes operate between Warren Street and Battery Place from 4-7 PM. 42nd Street Priority bus lanes operate between Third and Eighth Avenues in both the east- and westbound directions from 7-10 AM and 4-7 PM. 49th Street 49th Street operates as a Transitway between Third and Eighth Avenues during the hours of 8 AM-6 PM. 50th Street 50th Street operates as a Transitway between Eighth and Third Avenues during the hours of 8 AM-6 PM. 57th Street The eastbound priority bus lane operates between Sixth and Second Avenues during the hours of 7-10 AM. From 4-7 PM, the eastbound priority bus lane operates between Eighth and Second Avenues. The westbound priority bus lane operates between Second and Eighth Avenues during the hours of 7-10 AM and 4-7 PM. Notes: 1. Priority bus lanes are generally reserved for only buses, except for right turns by autos that may be permitted at specific intersections. 2. The contraflow lane is dedicated to buses and operates in a direction opposite to the flow of traffic. 3. Transitways are dedicated to buses and taxis during specific hours of the day. Source: "Street Congestion & New York City Transit Buses," NYCT, 1994. 9E-5 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS intersections of all cross streets with Madison Avenue, signs inform motorists which lanes they may turn into and which lanes must be kept clear for buses. Only dual bus lanes have had any significant measure of success in increasing average bus speeds. BUS TRAVEL TIMES AND SPEEDS Bus speeds are negatively impacted by street congestion and the frequency of bus stops. Table 9E-4 presents average bus speeds by route, for both weekdays and Saturdays, at Noon. Bus speeds are generally 10 to 20 percent lower than speeds for other vehicles. Buses providing regular service generally operate at speeds in the 5-7 mile per hour (mph) range while “limited-stop” buses, which provide service to selected bus stops spaced about every 8 to 10 blocks, operate in the 7-10 mph range. Only the dual bus lanes on Madison Avenue appear to have successfully improved overall bus speeds, yielding an 80 percent increase in speeds during the PM, directly after implementation of the bus lanes. Table 9E-4 NYCT Local Bus Routes Average Bus Speeds for Key Routes Midday Routes Weekday Saturday NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES M1: Fifth/Madison Aves. M2: Fifth/Madison Aves./Powell Blvd. M3: Fifth/Madison Aves./St. Nicholas Ave. M4: Fifth/Madison Aves./Broadway M5: Fifth Ave./Ave. of the Americas/Riverside Dr. M6: Seventh Ave./Broadway/Ave. of the Americas M9: Ave. B/East Broadway M15: First/Second Aves. M31: 57th St./York Ave. M98: Washington Heights-Midtown Ltd, Third/Lexington Aves. M101/102/103*: Third/Lexington Aves. B51: Brooklyn Fulton Mall-Lower Manhattan (Manhattan Bridge) Q32: Penn Station-Jackson Heights, Madison/Fifth Aves. 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.5 5.2 7.0 6.9 5.4 9.6 6.8 8.9 6.2 8.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.4 6.3 7.2 8.2 6.6 — 6.5 — 6.9 EAST-WEST ROUTES M8: 8th/9th Sts. M14/AD: 14th St./Ave. A/Aves. C/D M16/M34: 34th St. M21: Houston St./Ave. C M22: Madison/Chambers St. M23: 23rd St. B39: Williamsburg-Lower East Side/Delancey St. 5.7 5.7 5.0 6.8 5.7 5.1 8.4 6.3 5.8 5.2 7.5 6.9 6.1 9.8 Notes: * M101/M102 routes were redesignated as M101/M102/M103 routes in Fall 1995. — Indicates that there is no service. Source: 1994 NYCT Route Profiles. 9E-6 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) Travel time data for three bus routes operating with limited-stop service were compared to their regular operations, and the following was noted: ! M2: AM peak period trips were 9 minutes faster (11 percent) with limited-stop service. Northbound trips in the PM period were 15 minutes (15 percent) faster. ! M15: AM and PM peak period trips were 10 to 15 minutes (15 to 20 percent) faster with limited-stop service. ! M101: AM southbound trips were 22 minutes (30 percent) faster for limited-stop buses, while PM northbound trips were about 11 minutes (15 percent) faster. Bus operations are beset by “bus bunching”, a condition where, after a long period of time when no buses arrive at a specific bus stop, several buses arrive within minutes of each other, often simultaneously. There are several factors which contribute to bus bunching, including the high frequency of service provided, high passenger volumes using the buses which can cause long delays at individual bus stops, and overall traffic congestion on the avenues that decreases bus speeds. Sample bus bunching observations were performed on a single day on First and Fifth Avenues to quantify the problem and how large of a service gap resulted. Buses were observed on First Avenue at 33rd Street from 3 to 5 PM, and on Fifth Avenue at 41st Street from 12 Noon to 2 PM. On First Avenue, scheduled PM headways for the M15 are 2 minutes. However, the wait for an M15 "limited” bus was as much as 19 minutes. On Fifth Avenue, the scheduled headways during the midday are 8 minutes for the M1, M2, M3, and M4. Scheduled headways for the M5 and Q32 are 10 minutes during the midday peak. There was, however, a wait of 15 minutes or more for a specific bus, at least once for every route. Riders waiting for the M1 and the M2 “limited” bus had to wait as long as 29 minutes for their bus to arrive, while passengers waiting for the M4 bus had a service gap of 34 minutes. BUS RIDERSHIP TRENDS Until recently, bus ridership was in decline. According to a report prepared by NYCT in 1994, Faster than Walking, Street Congestion & New York City Transit Buses, there was a 48 percent decline in bus ridership from 1963 to 1991. Local bus ridership declined more noticeably after 1985. However, preliminary 1995 data indicate that this trend has been reversed. Statistics gathered by the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council indicate that the total number of persons entering the "Hub" or CBD (area below 60th Street) by local buses had decreased to just over 60,000 persons on a fall day in 1993. This represents a reduction in ridership of approximately 40 percent over a 10-year period, from a high of 100,000 passengers on a fall day in 1983. The upper graph in Figure 9E-7 depicts historic local bus ridership trends. At the same time, as shown in the lower graph in Figure 9E-7, an average of just over 3,000 local buses enter the "Hub" on a fall day, a number that has remained fairly constant for the last 10 years. With the introduction of intermodal transfers in July 1997 and discounted pay-per-ride fare cards in January 1998, bus ridership has increased dramatically. Unlimited 7- and 30-day passes are expected to increase ridership further. Table 9E-5 presents the number of bus passengers who entered or exited the Hub over the 60th Street screenline in either the AM or PM peak hour in the fall of 1993. More passengers rode on buses in the Fifth Avenue/Madison Avenue corridor than all the other corridors combined. This is due, in part, to the number of express buses traveling along the Fifth Avenue/Madison Avenue corridor in addition to the local service. 9E-7 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS Table 9E-5 Number of Passengers Entering or Exiting the Hub by Bus at the 60th Street Screenline, AM and PM Peak Hours Entering AM Street/Roadway FDR Drive 0 York Avenue 503 First Avenue — Second Avenue 1,756 Third Avenue — Lexington Avenue 2,709 Madison Avenue — Fifth Avenue 3,531 Source: 1993 Hub Bound Travel Report. Exiting PM 56 167 1,364 — 1,718 — 5,028 — Between 1984 and 1993, the total number of express bus passengers entering the Hub at either the 60th Street, Brooklyn, or Queens screenlines has fallen from a high of 80,000 passengers to just over 40,000 passengers, a drop in ridership of almost 50 percent, as seen in Figure 9E-8. The total number of express buses entering the Hub has also declined, from approximately 2,500 vehicles to 1,800 vehicles, a decline of less than 30 percent in vehicular volume (see the lower graph in Figure 9E-8). BUS CAPACITY UTILIZATION NYCT "Local Bus Schedule Guidelines" are designed to ensure that there are enough buses on a given route to accommodate riders during a particular time period. Guidelines have been developed for both "feeder" routes, i.e., routes on which most of the passengers have a common origin or destination, and "grid" routes, which are characterized by a series of significant on/off activities. Most of the local bus routes in the study area are grid routes; their guidelines are discussed below. The grid route schedule guidelines indicate that buses are expected to accommodate up to a maximum of 60 people during the peak periods. (This is approximately 1.5 times the seated capacity of a bus.) A bus loaded with more than 60 people would not have the floor space to permit passengers to comfortably maneuver through it for seating or exiting. Consistent with these guidelines, three levels of loading standards have been developed for NYCT buses: seated (less than 40 passengers on a bus); standing (between 41 and 60 passengers per bus, or up to the service guideline of a maximum of 60 passengers per bus, as indicated earlier); and overcrowded (more than 60 passengers per bus). These loading standards were used as the benchmark for sample observations on bus crowding conditions conducted on a single day in March 1995. Observers were stationed at critical crossstreet locations in the study area: at the Metro-North station on 125th Street, and then on selected north-south avenues along 86th, 72nd, 42nd, 14th, and Houston Streets. In Midtown, bus routes were observed between Third and Fifth Avenues. South of 14th Street, buses were observed on the avenues between First Avenue and Broadway. Observations were conducted between 7 and 9E-8 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) 9 AM, Noon to 2 PM, and from 4 to 6 PM. The observations were not continuous, but rather provide one-day "snapshots" of bus crowding conditions (10 to 20 minutes per avenue per time period). During the AM period, southbound buses were more crowded than northbound buses, as would be expected. Standees were observed on approximately 10 to 15 percent of the buses while less than 5 percent of the buses were considered overcrowded. In the midday period, the observations indicated that bus crowding decreased. A small number of buses carried some standees; very few overcrowded buses were noticed. In the PM period, bus crowding increased, but not to the same levels that were observed in the AM period. Overcrowded buses were noticed in the peak direction on the M98 and the M101/M102 routes (M101/M102 routes now terminate service in the East Village; the new M103 route continues downtown, replacing the previous M101/M102 Lower Manhattan route) and there were standees in the off-peak direction, particularly on the Upper East Side. Overcrowding was observed to a lesser extent on buses in the Midtown area. Below 14th Street, the buses observed on the M101/ M102 routes did not exhibit crowding problems. Fifth Avenue buses experienced crowding conditions in both the AM and PM peaks, although crowding was less severe than on Lexington Avenue bus routes. In the AM peak, about 15 percent of the buses observed on the Upper East Side contained standees. In Midtown, the number of buses containing standees decreased to less than 5 percent of the buses observed. Below 14th Street, no standees were observed on Broadway buses; buses have low passenger volumes and are generally nearing the end of their runs. In the midday period buses remained crowded in the Midtown and Upper East Side areas, possibly due to the number of shoppers using the buses and the increased headway between buses. Limited overcrowding was observed. In the PM period, a smaller number of buses carried standees in Lower Manhattan and Midtown. Crowding conditions worsened on the Upper East Side. Many of the buses observed at 72nd Street carried standees; by 86th Street, many passengers had exited. These observations show that many passengers use the bus for short trips, indicating that seats on an individual bus are "sold" to more than one passenger along a route. Observations conducted on the Lower East Side and in Lower Manhattan did not reveal bus crowding. This does not mean that there are no overcrowded buses on specific routes, but that, overall, available passenger capacity does exist. Ridership data obtained from the NYCT Route Profiles together with limited observations of bus crowding conditions indicate that the major north-south routes, which are the primary focus of this study, are characterized by high frequency of service, high ridership levels, and high load levels (i.e., high service capacity ratings and utilization of seated capacity well over 100 percent, actually nearing 150 percent). Figure 9E-9 depicts average total ridership for local north-south bus routes for five time periods at their maximum load points, the point where the number of passengers on each bus route is the heaviest during a certain time period. As expected, ridership is greatest during the weekdays, with approximately 30,000 riders counted at the maximum load points in the AM peak period (an average of about 7,500 per hour for four hours), and 36,000 passengers (9,000 per hour for four hours) in the PM peak period. Despite the operation of fewer buses in the midday period, rider- 9E-9 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS ship remains fairly high. Over 25,000 passengers were counted on the north-south buses at their maximum load points between 10 AM and 3 PM on an average day (5,000 per hour for 5 hours). Estimated scheduled passenger capacity for local bus routes in the AM peak hour is shown in Table 9E-6. As expected, buses in East Midtown have the greatest passenger capacity; approximately 19,300 passengers can be carried in the peak hour based on the information presented in the NYCT Route Profiles. Buses on the Upper East Side can accommodate over 12,000 passengers. Table 9E-6 Scheduled Passenger Capacity on Local Buses: AM Peak Hour Study Area Zone Lower Manhattan Lower East Side East Midtown Upper East Side East Harlem Passenger Capacity 6,100 9,900 19,300 12,100 9,000 Source: 1994 NYCT Route Profiles. There are not as many buses operating in East Harlem and on the Lower East Side as there are in the core areas of Midtown and the Upper East Side. The buses operating outside the core areas can accommodate between 9,000 and 10,000 passengers in the AM peak hour. Lower Manhattan is a compact area with a high concentration of subway lines and stations, so fewer buses are needed to provide transportation. The buses in this area can accommodate approximately 6,100 passengers. The passenger capacity estimates are based on the information in the NYCT Route Profiles and assumes that the capacity of a bus route does not change throughout the study area. Tables 9E-7 and 9E-8 outline ridership and capacity utilization on local buses for the AM and PM peak hours, respectively. For the AM and PM peaks, the schedule guidelines are at or near 60 passengers per trip, indicating that all the seats are occupied and there are as many as 20 standees on the bus. The service capacity rating indicates, on a percentage basis, how close bus occupancy is to the guideline. The higher the percentage, the more crowded the bus. Most of the AM peak hour north-south bus routes are operating with service capacity ratings in excess of 85 percent, generally between 95 and 98 percent. In the PM peak hour, service capacity ratings on the busiest routes range from the mid 80's to the low 90's, only slightly below the AM peak hour ratings. The ridership characteristics of two of the busiest routes are described below. The M15 bus route provides local service on First and Second Avenues. As the M15 has the highest number of passengers of any route, more trips are scheduled on the M15 bus (41 trips) during the AM peak hour than on any other bus in the study area. With a per trip load guideline of 60 passengers (the maximum allowable), the capacity rating for the M15 bus is 94 percent. With an average of 56 riders per trip, standees would be expected on each bus. The service capacity rating in the PM peak hour is 81 percent. Sample crowding condition observations for 9E-10 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) Table 9E-7 NYCT Local Bus Routes AM Peak Hour Ridership and Capacity Utilization Routes NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES M1: Fifth/Madison Aves. M2: Fifth/Madison Aves./Powell Blvd. M3: Fifth/Madison Aves./St. Nicholas Ave. M4: Fifth/Madison Aves./Broadway M5: Fifth Ave./Ave. of the Americas/Riverside Dr. M6: Seventh Ave./Broadway/Ave. of the Americas M9: Ave. B/East Broadway M15: First/Second Aves. M31: 57th St./York Ave. M98: Washington Heights-Midtown Ltd Third/Lexington Aves. M101/102/103*: Third/Lexington Aves. B51: Brooklyn Fulton Mall-Lower Manhattan (Manhattan Bridge) Q32: Penn Station-Jackson Heights, Madison/Fifth Aves. Scheduled Trips Scheduled Passenger Capacity Riders Per Trip Total Per Load Riders Trip Guidelines Service Capacity Rating (percent) 8 8 9 10 14 440 440 540 600 840 405 405 354 506 822 51 51 39 51 59 55 55 60 60 60 92% 92 66 84 98 6 300 253 42 50 84 6 41 25 8 300 2,460 1,500 440 345 2,310 1,445 403 58 56 58 50 50 60 60 55 115 94 96 92 31 4 1,860 160 1600 146 52 37 60 40 86 93 10 600 390 39 60 65 EAST-WEST ROUTES M8: 8th/9th Sts. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A M14/AD: 14th St./Ave. A/Aves. C/D 29 1740 1768 61 60 102% M16/M34: 34th St. 13 780 487 37 60 62% M21: Houston St./Ave. C M22: Madison/Chambers Sts. M23: 23rd St. 4 10 12 160 600 720 192 509 621 48 51 52 40 60 60 120% 85% 86% 5 225 200 40 45 89% B39: Williamsburg-Lower East Side/Delancey St. Notes: Per Trip Load Guidelines vary according to the scheduled frequency of service, the type of route, and the time of day. Ridership demand is based on peak direction at maximum load point. M101/M102 routes were redesignated as M101/M102/M103 routes in Fall 1995. Source: 1994 NYCT Route Profiles. 9E-11 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS Table 9E-8 NYCT Local Bus Routes PM Peak Hour Ridership and Capacity Utilization Routes NORTH-SOUTH ROUTES M1: Fifth/Madison Aves. M2: Fifth/Madison Aves./Powell Blvd. M3: Fifth/Madison Aves./St. Nicholas Ave. M4: Fifth/Madison Aves./Broadway M5: Fifth Ave./Ave. of the Americas/Riverside Dr. M6: Seventh Ave./Broadway/Ave. of the Americas M9: Ave. B/East Broadway M15: First/Second Aves. M31: 57th St./York Ave. M98: Washington Heights-Midtown Ltd Third/Lexington Aves. M101/102/103*: Third/Lexington Aves. B51: Brooklyn Fulton Mall-Lower Manhattan (Manhattan Bridge) Q32: Penn Station-Jackson Height, Madison/Fifth Aves. Scheduled Scheduled Passenger Trips Capacity Total Riders Riders Per Trip Per Trip Load Guidelines Service Capacity Rating (percent) 12 9 10 10 10 720 540 600 600 600 629 471 524 524 495 52 52 52 52 50 60 60 60 60 60 87% 87 87 87 83 6 300 237 40 50 79 6 31 14 6 300 1,860 840 300 192 1,573 774 280 32 51 55 47 50 60 60 50 64 85 92 93 29 6 1,740 300 1,512 274 52 46 60 50 87 91 9 540 433 48 60 80 N/A EAST-WEST ROUTES M8: 8th/9th Sts. N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A M14/AD: 14th St./Ave. A/Aves. C/D 27 1620 1215 45 60 76 M16/M34: 34th St. 12 720 465 39 60 65 M21: Houston St./Ave. C M22: Madison/Chambers Sts. M23: 23rd St. 4 8 12 160 440 720 116 254 553 29 32 46 40 55 60 73 58 77 5 225 261 52 45 116 B39: Williamsburg-Lower East Side/Delancey St. Notes: Per Trip Load Guidelines vary according to the scheduled frequency of service, the type of route, and the time of day. Ridership demand is based on peak direction at maximum load point. M101/M102 routes were redesignated as M101/M102/M103 routes in Fall 1995. Source: 1994 NYCT Route Profiles. the M15 route were conducted on the Lower East Side and in Lower Manhattan. They indicate that crowding occurs on the M15 bus route on the Lower East Side and in Lower Manhattan, with standees in both peak periods and overcrowded conditions experienced in the AM peak period. This is evidence of the high volume of passengers that use the M15 bus and also reflects the reduced service available on the M15 bus below Houston Street. No crowding condition observations were made for the M15 bus route in Midtown. Some northbound check-rides were taken on M15 buses throughout the Lower East Side and Midtown areas; they indicate that the M15 is crowded when entering Midtown, and becomes overcrowded as the bus continues north. The M101/M102/M103 routes have the next highest number of riders in the AM peak hour, with over 1,600 passengers. The M101/M102/M103 buses have a capacity rating of 86 percent in the 9E-12 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) AM peak hour, indicating that the buses are slightly less crowded than on the M15 route, and a rating of 87 percent during the PM peak hour. AM peak and PM peak bus loadings are approximately equal, with the heaviest routes operating with considerable standees along much of their length in East Midtown and the Upper East Side. The M1 and the M101/M102/M103 routes are prime examples of this. The M15 bus route is the most crowded in the study area, despite the very short headways in effect during the AM, midday, and PM peak periods. The M101/M102/M103 buses are almost as crowded as the M15 bus route. FUTURE CONDITIONS COMMON TO ALL ALTERNATIVES The surface transit analyses of the alternatives conducted as part of this study included a set of common assumptions, namely: 1) free transfers between subway and bus systems; 2) retention of current bus service frequencies in the future analysis year; and 3) retention of all current bus routes. It was assumed that bus ridership will increase by approximately 15 percent by the 2020 analysis year without implementation of the TSM Alternative or Build Alternatives 1 or 2. The transit model developed for this study was used to project AM peak hour ridership by bus route at a series of screenlines within the study area. This included screenlines at 96th Street, 72nd Street, 42nd Street, and a composite screenline across several streets on the Lower East Side. The findings from the model were then used to assess ridership increases at these screenlines and at selected peak load points for key routes. It should be remembered that, consistent with NYCT guidelines, the three levels of loading standards are: 1) seated, i.e., less than 40 passengers on a bus; 2) standing, i.e., between 41 and 60 passengers per bus (the NYCT service guideline is a maximum of 60 passengers per bus); and 3) overcrowded, i.e., more than 60 passengers per bus. The findings of these analyses are presented below. PROBABLE IMPACTS OF THE PROJECT ALTERNATIVES NO BUILD ALTERNATIVE With the No Build Alternative, the recent reversal of bus ridership decline is expected to continue. Ridership is projected to increase by about 15 percent by the 2020 analysis year. There would be no new routes and projected load levels per bus at peak load points would generally not generate service additions or reductions. Ridership on the M15 route would increase to average per bus load levels above standing capacity guidelines (i.e., “overcrowded”), but could be accommodated within the standing capacity guidelines by increasing service on the M15 by three buses per hour in peak periods. The M15 is already the busiest route in the system and is beset with difficulties in maintaining headways due to traffic conditions on First and Second Avenues, which together cause bus bunching. The addition of three more buses per hour would thus be expected to exacerbate the bus bunching problem. OVERVIEW OF THE TSM ALTERNATIVE AND BUILD ALTERNATIVES 1 AND 2 The TSM Alternative and Build Alternatives 1 and 2 would have different effects on bus ridership. The TSM Alternative, with its implementation of one- and two-lane priority New York Bus Lanes, would result in overall bus ridership increases as new riders are attracted to the M15 route on First and Second Avenues due to increased service capacities and decreased travel times. Other parallel routes would have some ridership reductions as some of their riders are attracted to the 9E-13 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS speedier and more reliable service on First and Second Avenues. The TSM Alternative and Build Alternatives 1 and 2 each include a series of bus route extensions and modifications on the Lower East Side that would also generate ridership shifts that are common to these alternatives. Overall, Build Alternative 1 and Build Alternative 2 would generate bus ridership reductions in areas where new subway and/or light rail services are proposed. This is because a percentage of current bus riders would be attracted to subway/light rail service due to their improved travel times and reliability vis-a-vis bus service. As shown in Table 9E-9, the TSM Alternative would increase bus ridership by about 12 to 18 percent over No Build levels throughout the study area. Build Alternatives 1 and 2, on the other hand, would significantly draw riders off of buses (14 to 19 percent) on the Upper East Side, and to a lesser extent (5 percent or less) at 42nd Street since the subway component would no longer be “outboard” at Second Avenue. That is, the subway alignment would have merged onto the N and R tracks as it proceeds southward and westward toward 42nd Street/Times Square from its connection via the 63rd Street tunnel on the Manhattan side. Build Alternative 2, with the LRT, would significantly attract riders from Lower East Side buses. Diversions from buses approaching 60 percent areawide in the Lower East Side are projected. Table 9E-9 Bus Ridership of the TSM and Build Alternatives 1 and 2 Compared with the No Build at Selected Screenlines Screenline 96th Street 72nd Street 42nd Street Lower East Side TSM Build 1 Build 2 +12.3% +14.0% +18.6% +18.6% -14.0% -18.4% -0.3% +5.4% -16.5% -19.3% -4.5% -58.3% Ridership projections and peak load levels per bus were analyzed for selected routes, and the findings of the analyses are shown in Tables 9E-10 and 9E-11. TSM ALTERNATIVE The TSM Alternative consists of two bus elements—implementation of New York Bus Lanes between Houston and 96th Streets and creation of new bus routes or modifications of existing routes on the Lower East Side. The objective of the New York Bus Lanes is to improve bus service and increase bus use by reducing travel times and improving bus travel time reliability. Concurrent with the implementation of the new bus lanes under the TSM Alternative, service capacity on the M15 route would be increased by about 50 percent. The objective of the bus route extensions and modifications on the Lower East Side are to increase transit accessibility for Lower East Side residents to work destinations in Lower Manhattan and East Midtown (see Figure 9E-10). As described in 2, the TSM Alternative would create one-lane New York Bus Lanes along First and Second Avenues between Houston and 14th Streets, and two-lane New York Bus 9E-14 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) Table 9E-10 Projected Bus Ridership at Peak Load Points Route-by-Route: AM Peak Hour Route Peak Load Point Existing No Build TSM Build 1 TOTAL 405 405 405 405 354 354 506 506 3340 466 466 466 466 407 407 582 582 3,842 497 450 497 450 434 393 621 562 3,904 554 386 554 386 484 337 692 482 3,875 527 382 527 382 461 334 659 478 3,750 LEXINGTON AVENUE M98 Lexington Avenue/86th Street M98 Lexington Avenue/124th Street M101/102 Lexington Avenue/42nd Street M101/102 Lexington Avenue/72nd Street TOTAL 403 403 1600 1600 4006 463 463 1,840 1,840 4,606 381 343 1,696 1,512 3,932 231 358 1,814 916 3,319 217 323 1,739 863 3,142 SECOND AVENUE M15 Second Avenue/57th Street M15 Second Avenue/79th Street TOTAL 2310 2310 4620 2,657 2,657 5,314 3,679 3,825 7,504 2,516 2,765 5,281 2,463 2,534 4,997 808 808 929 929 771 771 486 486 484 484 268 310 1,011 — 46 223 308 357 1,163 — 53 256 239 302 1,103 134 53 474 227 240 1,091 159 53 449 199 72 465 0 53 127 1,858 2,137 2,305 2,219 916 FIFTH AVENUE M1 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M1 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M2 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M2 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M3 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M3 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M4 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M4 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street YORK AVENUE M31 York Avenue/70th Street TOTAL LOWER EAST SIDE M8 WB: East 9th Street/Third Avenue M9 WB: Avenue B/East 2nd Street M14 WB: East 14th Street/Avenue A M15 NB: East 14th Street/Avenue A M21 WB: Avenue A/E. Houston Street M22 W/B: Madison Street/Rutgers Street TOTAL 9E-15 Build 2 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS Table 9E-11 Projected Bus Occupancy Levels at Peak Load Points: AM Peak Hour Buses Per Hour Route Peak Load Point Riders Per Bus NB TSM B1 B2 NB TSM B1 B2 FIFTH AVENUE M1 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M1 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M2 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M2 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M3 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M3 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street M4 Fifth Avenue/42nd Street M4 Fifth Avenue/72nd Street 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 58 58 58 58 45 45 58 58 62 56 62 56 48 44 62 56 69 48 69 48 54 37 69 48 66 48 66 48 51 37 66 48 LEXINGTON AVENUE M98 Lexington Avenue/86th Street M98 Lexington Avenue/124th Street M101/102 Lexington Avenue/42nd Street M101/102 Lexington Avenue/72nd Street 8 8 31 31 8 8 31 31 8 8 31 31 8 8 31 31 58 58 59 59 48 43 55 49 29 45 59 30 27 40 56 28 SECOND AVENUE M15 Second Avenue/57th Street M15 Second Avenue/79th Street 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 65 65 90 93 61 67 60 62 YORK AVENUE M31 York Avenue/70th Street 25 25 25 25 37 31 19 19 6 6 29 — 4 10 6 6 29 6 4 10 6 6 29 6 4 10 6 6 29 — 4 10 45 60 40 — 13 26 39 50 38 22 13 47 38 40 38 27 13 45 16 12 16 — 13 13 LOWER EAST SIDE M8 WB: East 9th Street/Third Avenue M9 WB: Avenue B/East 2nd Street M14 WB: East 14th Street/Avenue A M15 NB: East 14th Street/Avenue A M21 WB: Avenue A/E. Houston Street M22 W/B: Madison Street/Rutgers Street 9E-16 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) Lanes between 14th and 96th Streets. Figure 9E-11 presents a concept-level plan for a typical two-lane New York Bus Lane segment on First Avenue between 53rd and 62nd Streets. The objective of these priority bus lanes is to provide buses with a semi-exclusive right-of-way that would increase their travel speeds and travel time reliability. Where there are bus stops, the sidewalk would be “built out” into the nearest travel lane in order to better define the bus stop, with the remainder of the block without the built-out sidewalk available and designated for curbside deliveries and/or parking. In the two-lane bus lane sections, the next two travel lanes would be designated for use by buses, vehicles pulling over the curb or away from the curb, and any vehicle making a right turn at the corner. Although it would be preferable from a bus operations perspective to designate the two lanes for buses only, a preliminary analysis of the street capacity available to accommodate all other traffic showed that there would not be sufficient capacity to do so. The complete prohibition of curbside dropoffs and deliveries would also have created too great an impact on local businesses and residents. Furthermore, the volume of buses using First and Second Avenues does not warrant full dedication of one or two exclusive bus lanes. Under the TSM Alternative, First and Second Avenue buses would be provided with an improved level of operations via the two-lane New York Bus Lane plan. It is projected that travel time savings of about 10 percent could be realized in sections with the one-lane bus lane treatment, and that savings of up to about 20 percent could be realized for sections with the two-lane treatment. Table 9E-10 presents the findings of the bus ridership projections for north-south bus routes operating on Fifth Avenue, Lexington Avenue, Second Avenue, and York Avenue within East Midtown, the Upper East Side, and East Harlem, and for routes in the Lower East Side, in the weekday AM peak. For the Fifth Avenue bus routes, a negligible change in ridership is projected under the TSM Alternative. For Lexington Avenue buses and the M31 route on York Avenue, a decrease of about 15 percent in ridership is projected; this is attributable to improved travel times on the M15 on Second Avenue which could lure some current riders on Lexington Avenue buses and the M31 to the M15 as well as induce some all-new bus trips on the M15. For the M15 route, the TSM Alternative is projected to increase ridership by about 40 percent compared to the No Build Alternative. This reflects the 10-20 percent travel time savings expected and the additional service capacity of 50 percent. In general, Lower East Side bus ridership is projected to increase under the TSM Alternative, primarily the M22 route along Madison Street. This route would be extended northward from Madison Street by essentially combining the existing M22 with the northern half of the M21. The northeastbound M22 would turn left onto Jackson Street, left onto Grand Street, right onto Kazan Street, left onto Williamsburg Bridge North, and then right onto Avenue C and follow the remainder of the current M21 route to 34th Street. It is projected that this linkage of the M22 to workplace destinations along First and Second Avenues in the 14th to 34th Street area (including the hospital corridor encompassing Beth Israel Medical Center, Bellevue Hospital, and NYU Medical Center) would result in a near-doubling of AM peak hour ridership on the M22. Table 9E-11 presents the findings of the ridership projections on a per bus basis at each route’s peak load point(s). These analyses were prepared to determine whether the magnitude of ridership changes per bus route would affect bus load levels to the extent that their service frequencies would need to be adjusted upward (to avoid overloading) or downward (to make their operation more cost-effective). Table 9E-11 indicates that several significant increases or reductions in per 9E-17 Manhattan East Side Transit Alternatives MIS/DEIS bus load levels are projected, none of which would necessarily produce a significant change in bus service according to NYCT. Projections for the M15 indicate that it would be operating at the service guideline for an articulated bus of about 90 riders per bus (NYCT assumes it would operate articulated buses on the M15 route in order to effect a 50 percent increase in capacity). The load levels for the M1/M2 at their 42nd Street peak load point are just above standing capacity guidelines and could generally be accommodate within those guidelines by the addition of one bus in peak periods. BUILD ALTERNATIVE 1 With Build Alternative 1, overall ridership on Fifth Avenue buses would be essentially the same as for the No Build Alternative (see Table 9E-10). As shown in Table 9E-11, there would be variations by location on each route. Ridership reductions along Fifth Avenue at the 72nd Street peak load point indicate some diversion of transit riders from buses to subway in the northern half of the study area where the influence of the new East Side subway extension would be felt. Similarly, Lexington Avenue bus ridership would be reduced significantly (by about 15 percent overall) as many bus riders would now be better served by the new subway line with this alternative. Lexington Avenue bus ridership reductions would be substantial north of 59th Street, as shown in Table 9E-11 for the three peak load points north of 59th Street. A modest reduction in ridership is projected for the M15 under Build Alternative 1, since longer trips would normally be expected to divert to the new subway line. Ridership on the M31, on the other hand, is projected to decrease by half since residents of the far East Side would be substantially better served by the new subway than they are by the M31 (the proposed subway alignment, in fact, very closely follows the travel path of the M31, linking residents of the farthest reaches of the Upper East Side with the Midtown core). The same bus route modifications developed as part of the TSM Alternative for the Lower East Side would also be implemented as part of Build Alternative 1. As shown in Table 9E-11, an overall bus ridership increase is projected for the Lower East Side with Build Alternative 1, although not as great as is projected with the TSM Alternative, again due to the new attractiveness of the proposed extension of the M22 route and the new branch of the M15. Ridership changes in the overall study area would not, for the most part, precipitate service changes on the part of NYCT, with two possible exceptions—Lexington Avenue bus service above 59th Street and M31/York Avenue bus service could be reduced if actual ridership reductions would materialize at levels well below seated capacities as is projected. BUILD ALTERNATIVE 2 With Build Alternative 2, overall ridership on the Fifth Avenue, Lexington Avenue, Second Avenue, and York Avenue buses would be generally comparable to ridership with Build Alternative 1, just 4 to 5 percent lower as there would be some additional diversion from buses to subway with LRT service available at Union Square. Any potential bus service reductions identified for these routes with Build Alternative 1 above would be similar with Build Alternative 2. The LRT component of Build Alternative 2 is projected to effect significant bus ridership reductions of about 60 percent, however, in the Lower East Side, as shown in Table 9E-10, particularly for the M8 (8th Street crosstown), M9 (East Broadway/Essex Street/Avenue B/14th Street route), and M22 (Madison Street) services, as well as for the M14 crosstown route on 14th Street. As 9E-18 Chapter 9: Transportation (Surface Transit) shown in Table 9E-11, with Build Alternative 2 each of these routes are projected to carry per bus ridership levels substantially below seated capacity and would therefore be candidates for significant service cutbacks. This is logical for those bus routes would essentially have their services replicated by the LRT operating along East Broadway, Columbia Street/Avenue D, and 14th Street. It is possible that Avenue D service on the M14 would be discontinued since the LRT provides identical route service. It is also possible that crosstown bus service on 14th Street would not extend east of Union Square since such service would be provided east of Union Square by the LRT, or some reduced amount of service could be retained for the full 14th Street corridor. If service were cut east of Union Square, crosstown riders would no longer enjoy a one-seat ride on 14th Street. MITIGATION MEASURES The TSM Alternative and Build Alternatives 1 and 2 would benefit transit users in the MESA study area, and no significant adverse impacts on surface transit users are predicted. Therefore, no mitigation is required. v 9E-19
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