THE LINK BETWEEN FROM DAY TO DAY CHANGE OF WEATHER
TYPES AND SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS...
QUAESTIONES GEOGRAPHICAE 32(3) • 2013
THE LINK BETWEEN FROM DAY TO DAY CHANGE
OF WEATHER TYPES AND SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS IN KRAKÓW
DURING THE PERIOD 1961–2010
Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland
Manuscript received: January 17, 2013
Revised version: July 5, 2013
Piotrowicz K., Szlagor J., 2013. The link between from day to day change of weather types and synoptic situations in
Kraków during the period 1961–2010. Quaestiones Geographicae 32(2), Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp.
69–84. 2 tables, 9 figs. DOI 10.2478/quageo-2013-0023, ISSN 0137-477X.
Abstract. This paper analyses day-to-day changes of weather types and links these with synoptic situations, i.e. circulation types, air masses and weather fronts. The weather types were classified according to Woś (1999), while a calendar
proposed by Niedźwiedź (2013) was used for synoptic situations. Weather records from Kraków were used covering
the period 1961–2010. The frequency of all combinations of day-to-day weather type changes was calculated, identified
using specific values of air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation. The analysis of the succession and frequency of
the day-to-day changes was linked with the synoptic situations accompanying the change. It was found that the thermal weather types were relatively very stable and remained unchanged on the following day in 61.3% of cases, and
that the synoptic situation also remained similar. Weather subtypes, identified with just cloudiness and precipitation,
but not temperature, displayed much more day-to-day change in terms of frequency and scale. Synoptically it was the
air mass change and/or the occurrence of atmospheric fronts, which tended to cause day-to-day weather type changes,
while the impact of circulation was not always clear. Particular attention was devoted to sudden weather type changes
caused primarily by dramatic air temperature fluctuations.
Key words: weather types, circulation types, synoptic situations, day-to-day change, Kraków
Address of the corresponding author: Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian
University, Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Kraków, Poland; e-mail: [email protected]
1. Introduction
Complex climatology defines climate as
a “long-term pattern of local weather manifested as a certain order of occurrence of all weather
types observed in a given area” (Chubukov 1962).
Contemporary climatological writing defines the
climate as “a regular succession of atmospheric
change in a given location or geographical region” (Woś 1999).
Elements of weather exert a combined fundamental influence on the natural environment
and on the life and activity of humans (Ahas et al.
2005). Long spells of high temperature, or sudden
changes to it, may have a range of different effects
on living organisms. A separate analysis of individual elements of weather is insufficient for a full
account of the local climate. This task essentially
requires an analysis of the frequency of the various weather situations, known as weather types,
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
and their seasonal variability. Such an analysis
can benefit from the determination of the frequency of day-to-day change of weather types. Indeed,
short-term weather patterns, such as the succession of weather types, are important for practical
purposes. Linking day-to-day weather changes
with synoptic situations (i.e. atmospheric circulation, air masses and fronts) offers valuable insights
in many aspects of science, whether in terms of
methodology or pure and applied research.
The term “type of weather” is used by complex climatologists, synoptic meteorologists and
synoptic climatologists, which sometimes leads
to misunderstandings about its meaning. In complex climatology the weather type is understood
as the daily pattern of the various meteorological
elements (Piotrowicz 2010), while in synoptic climatology it is defined as the effect of a classification of atmospheric circulation types (Stefanicki
et al. 1998, Sheridan 2002, 2003, Brown 2004).
Fedorov (1925) pioneered the analysis of climate and the method of using a daily weather
catalogue coded with letters. His method was
rather complicated, as it coded a wide range of
elements, including: the average daily air temperature in certain intervals, the maximum and
minimum temperature, the difference between
current and previous-day temperature, relative
humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction and ground condition (Zinkiewicz 1953).
Chubukov (1949) modified Fedorov’s classification and used it for bioclimatic research.
The earliest attempts to classify weather types
were published in the USA in the first half of
the 1920s. The authors used either momentary
weather situations or their 24-hour records from
stations located in South America (Howe 1925),
the USA (Nichols 1925), Mexico and Central
America (Howe 1925, Switzer 1925).
Weather types are treated as components of
climate, while air temperature, cloudiness and
precipitation are regarded as elements of the
weather (Woś 1999). As such they provide a ge­
neral description of the weather, while their frequency of occurrence constitutes a source of information about the climate in a given location.
Kraków is among a small group of European
cities with long and unbroken meteorological
records. The city has a moderate transitional climate characterised by frequent weather changes
due to the meeting of dry air masses from the inner part of the continent and humid air from the
Atlantic.
Few studies are available linking a comprehensive approach to weather with circulation
types (Bogucki, Woś 1994, Kaszewski 1984, 1992,
Nagórska 1998, Niedźwiedź 1981, 1983, 1988,
Więcław 2004). Indeed, this approach tends to be
inherently complex, including from a methodological point of view.
Petrovič (1968) was among the researchers
who investigated the weather in connection
with circulation types. He used a modified version of the Fedorov-Chubukov classification
and circulation types according to CHMU. Maheras (1984) also relied on the Russian climatological classification in his comparative study
of weather patterns in Thessaloniki. Michailidou et al. (2009a, b) followed this vein of research. They identified weather types using
concentration analysis and two data groups,
i.e. on meteorology and circulation. In Poland
similar research was conducted, among others,
by Niedźwiedź (1981, 1983), Kaszewski (1984,
1992) and Bogucki and Woś (1994). The latter
two, in a study of relationships between weather types and circulation types near Poznań, allocated one weather and one circulation type to
each day of their study period. They then calculated the average annual frequency of weather
types and circulation types and the frequency
of occurrence of each weather type during the
circulation types.
This study aimed to evaluate the influence
of the synoptic situation on day-to-day weather
changes in Kraków during the period 1961–2010.
The first step was to identify the weather types
on each day of the study using the classification
by Woś (1999). Then, the frequency of day-to-day
weather type changes was calculated and linked
to the synoptic situation (circulation type, air
mass and atmospheric front) on that day. A simple method proposed for the analysis of the dayto-day weather change linked to synoptic situations brought interesting insights into short-term
weather variability in the study area.
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2. Source material
It follows from the premises of complex climatology that the climate should be studied
using information on the weather and its longterm patterns. The inherently great variety of
weather situations calls for a generalisation to
be made, which takes the form of the classification of weather types. Complex climatology uses
a range of criteria and combinations of the elements of weather to arrive at weather type classifications. Weather types are normally classified
on a daily scale using sets of weather elements.
As a result, each day is characterised by its date
and the appropriate numerical values.
This study used daily values of selected
weather elements recorded at the Climatology Department’s Research Station (50°04’N,
19°58’E, 220 m a.s.l.) covering the period 1961–
2010. Weather types were determined using the
classification proposed by Woś, which involved
air temperatures (daily average, maximum and
minimum), average cloudiness (as a percentage)
and the total daily precipitation (day with and
day without precipitation) (Table 1). The classi-
fication by Woś, published in 1999, was slightly
modified by adding a warm weather type (coded
22) to the thermal weather classification. The author found it useful to expand the existing range
of three thermal weather types characteristic of
the warm half of the year, which, with the 10-degree range of the average daily temperature per
type, was rather limiting for the understanding
of summertime weather variability. As a result,
12 ranges of daily average air temperature were
adopted, three ranges for overall cloudiness and
two ranges for precipitation. Overall, 66 types of
weather were identified, each coded with three
digits (four in the hot weather type 33 and warm
type 22), the first of which (the first two in types
33 and 22) denoted temperature characteristics,
the second denoted cloudiness and the third gave
information about precipitation.
Weather types can also be coded with less
than all three elements of weather. For example,
a type coded as 10- denotes cool weather with
low cloudiness and is determined with the average, maximum and minimum temperatures
and with cloudiness. A type coded as 22- means
warm weather, but makes no reference to the
Table 1. Weather types classification by Woś (1999)
Code
71
Criterion
Names of weather
Air temperature
33--
tmean>25.0°C; tmin, tmax>0.0°C
hot
3--
tmean 15.1–25.0°C; tmin, tmax>0.0°C
very warm
22--
tmean 10.1–15.0°C; tmin, tmax>0.0°C
warm
2--
tmean 5.1–10.0°C; tmin, tmax>0.0°C
moderately warm
1--
tmean 0.1–5.0°C; tmin, tmax>0.0°C
cool
4--
tmean>5.0°C; tmin≤0.0°C; tmax>0.0°C
ground-frost, moderately cool
5--
tmean 0.1–5.0°C; tmin≤0.0°C; tmax>0.0°C
ground-frost, very cool
6--
tmean –5.0–0.0°C; tmin≤0.0°C; tmax>0.0°C
ground-frost, moderately cold
7--
tmean <-5.0°C; tmin≤0.0°C; tmax>0.0°C
ground-frost, very cold
8--
tmean –5.0–0.0°C; tmin, tmax≤0.0°C
moderately frosty
9--
tmean –15.0÷-5.1°C; tmin, tmax≤0.0°C
fairly frosty
0--
tmean <–15.0°C; tmin, tmax≤0.0°C
very frosty
-0-
N≤20%
sunny or with little cloud amount
-1-
N 21–79%
cloudy
-2-
N≥80%
very cloudy
--0
--1
P<0.1 mm
P≥0.1 mm
Cloudiness
Precipitation
day without precipitation
day with precipitation
eg. 2210 – warm, cloudy, without precipitation
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
Table 2. Synoptic situations, air masses and fronts for southern Poland by T. Niedźwiedź (2013)
Code
Na
NEa
Ea
SEa
Sa
SWa
Wa
NWa
Ca
Ka
Nc
NEc
Ec
SEc
SEc
SWc
Wc
NWc
Cc
Bc
x
PA
PPm
PPms
PPmc
PPk
PZ
rmp
–
c
z
o
s
rf
Circulation types
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the north
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the northeast
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the east
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the southeast
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the south
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the southwest
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the west
anticyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the northwest
central anticyclonic situation, lack of advection, centre of high pressure
anticyclonic wedge, sometimes a few non-definite centre or unconstrained area of higher pressure,
axis of high pressure ridge
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the north
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the northeast
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the east
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the southeast
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the south
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the southwest
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the west
cyclonic situation with an advection of air masses from the northwest
central cyclonic situation, centre of low pressure
cyclonic trough or unconstrained area of low pressure, or axis of the low pressure trough, with
various advection directions and system of fronts separating different air masses
col and situations which cannot be classified
Air masses
Arctic
Polar maritime fresh
Polar maritime old (transformed)
Polar maritime warm
Polar continental
Tropical
Various air masses
Fronts
day without front
warm front
cold front
occluded front (occlusion)
stationary
several various fronts
cloudiness or precipitation. Such weather types
are referred to as “thermal types”. A weather
type coded -10 means cloudy weather without
precipitation, but without reference to the temperature, and is referred to as a “subtype”.
Day-to-day changes of the thermal types, subtypes and full weather types were linked with
types of circulation, air masses and atmospheric
fronts in accordance with a classification devised
by Niedźwiedź (2013). This classification has
been widely used in climatological research, and
detailed accounts of it can be found for example
in paper by Twardosz et al. (2011). Niedźwiedź
(2013) identified 21 types of synoptic situations
(Table 2), including one (x), which either cannot
be classified or is a col. One half of the 20 definite synoptic situations are cyclonic and the other
half anticyclonic. For the sake of clarity the author coded advection directions with letters and
added the index a for high pressure and c for
low-pressure systems. Out of the 20 situations
16 have a specific advection direction, while the
remaining four either have no advection at all or
the airflows from varying directions.
The same classification was used to determine
the type of air masses over southern Poland and
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33_3
33_33
3_3
3_22
3_33
3_2
22_22
22_3
22_2
22_1
22_5
2_2
2_22
2_1
2_5
2_4
2_6
2_3
1_1
1_5
1_2
1_6
1_4
1_22
1_7
4_2
4_22
4_4
4_1
4_5
4_6
4_3
5_5
5_1
5_6
5_2
5_4
5_8
5_9
5_22
5_7
6_6
6_5
6_8
6_9
6_1
6_2
6_7
6_4
7_6
7_9
7_8
7_7
7_5
7_1
7_0
8_8
8_6
8_9
8_5
8_7
9_9
9_8
9_6
9_7
9_5
9_0
0_0
0_9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
frequency (%)
70
80
90
100
Fig. 1. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of thermal types of weather in Kraków during the period
1961–2010
the passage of atmospheric fronts. The relevant
description is found in Table 2. 3. Day-to-day change of thermal
weather types
It is useful to begin the study of day-to-day
weather change by investigating thermal weather types. Figure 1 illustrates the frequency of oc-
currence of all possible combinations of day-today change of thermal types of weather during
the study period. Out of the total 69 combinations the most frequent were 3_3 (23.8%), 22_22
(12.5%) and 2_2 (9.5%). This is explained by the
fact that these were the most frequent thermal
weather types occurring in Kraków (Fig. 2).
Other types of information that can be derived
from this analysis include the frequency of dayto-day temperature drop or increase, i.e. when
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
thermal types changed, and the frequency of
day-to-day weather stability, i.e. when the types
remained the same. The study found that during
the study period a hot day (33) was followed by
a warm day (3) much more frequently than the
other way around (59.1%) (Fig. 1). This meant
a drop in temperature by one range in the thermal classification (33_3), and the direction of that
change may be denoted as “–1”. This occurred
most frequently in association with a change of
air mass (from tropical to various air masses or
to polar maritime air) and/or with a passage of
a cold front. No clear link could be found between this change and the circulation types (Fig.
3). Only two combinations of change occurred involving the (33) type and the other combination
involved the same thermal type (33_33; 40.9%)
(Fig. 1). These were relatively mild weather
changes, as it would take an increase or drop in
the temperature by several thermal ranges, e.g.
from warm to ground-frost very cool weather
(22_5; change -4) for a change to be regarded as
dramatic.
The most frequent weather type (3) was typically followed by the same type of weather
(85.9%; 3_3) or by a colder type of weather when
the following day belonged to the thermal type
(22) (12.9%; change –1) (Fig. 1). This combination (3_22) typically coincided with a day without a front (z_-; 23.1%) (Fig. 3). Otherwise, it was
difficult to find any synoptic pattern, even if this
combination most frequently occurred during cyclonic situations with polar maritime air. Day-today change through two thermal types, i.e. from
3 into 2, was far less frequent (0.4%; change –2).
The warm weather type (22) was also most
frequently followed by the same type of weather
(Fig. 1). This combination was followed in terms
35
frequency (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
33--
3--
22--
2--
1--
4--
5--
6--
7--
8--
9--
0--
Fig. 2. Frequency of occurrence (%) of thermal types of
weather in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
of frequency by a change to very warm weather
(19.1%; 22_3; change +1). At the other end of the
spectrum the change to ground-frost very cool
weather (5) produced the greatest day-to-day
change (-4), but occurred very rarely (22_5; 0.1%)
(Fig. 1). This change was most frequent (40.0%)
in connection with the passage of a cold front
(-_z) and a change of air masses (from various air
masses to Arctic air; 40.0%) (Fig. 3). Circulation
types had no significant influence on this type of
change.
Days with moderately warm weather (2) were
mostly followed by the same weather (59.5%;
2_2) (Fig. 1). This type, however, was quite often found to change into ground-frost very cool
weather (5.4%; 2_5; change –3) or ground-frost
moderately cold weather (0.3%; 2_6; change –4).
The latter change occurred in connection with
the inflow of Arctic air (rmp_PA; 20%) (Fig. 3).
Neither circulation types nor atmospheric fronts
had any apparent influence on that change.
There were very few cases (0.1%) of the moderately warm weather (2) being followed by a day
with a temperature more than 10°C higher, i.e.
a very warm day (3). When that happened, it was
caused by a change from various air masses into
tropical air mass (rmp_PZ; 50.0%; Fig. 3) and typically without atmospheric fronts (-_-; 50.0%).
More than 80% of cool days (1) were followed
by either the same thermal weather type (41.9%;
1_1), or by ground-frost very cool weather (29.9%;
1_5) or by moderately warm weather (14.6%; 1_2)
(Fig. 1). Ground-frost moderately cold days followed in 10.5% of cases (1_6; change –3). In this
combination there was no apparent impact of
circulation. This combination occurred most frequently during cyclonic situations (12.5%) with
polar maritime old or Arctic air masses (PPms;
PA; combined 28.4%) (Fig. 3). The greatest
change from this thermal type involved an dayto-day drop in the average temperature by more
than 10°C (0.1%; 1_7; change –4).
A day with moderately cool frosty weather
(4) was typically followed by moderately warm
weather (2; 56.9%) (Fig. 1). That day normally
also involved a temperature increase (4_22; 4_1;
24.9% combined). The change from ground-frost
moderately cool to warm weather (4_22; change
+3) was accompanied by similar circulation types
and the same air masses (Fig. 3), but since atmos-
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The change of hot day (33--) into very warm day (3--) (33_3; change -1)
100
Sc_Bc
SWc_Bc
Bc_Bc
SWa_Bc
Sa_Bc
Ka_Ka
Ka_Bc
sum 66.7%
frequency (%)
PZ_rmp
PZ_PZ
sum 64.1%
PZ_PPm
sum
74.4%
80
60
40
20
PZ_PPms
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
0
25
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
-_-
-_z
25
c_z
The change of very warm day (3--) into warm day (22--) (3_22; change -1)
50
PPm_PPm
SWc_Bc
rmp_PPm
Bc_NWc
sum
57.5%
PPms_PPms
sum 22.5%
Wc_Wc
sum 56.9%
PPms_PPm
Wc_NWc
frequency (%)
Bc_Bc
40
30
20
10
PPm_PPms
Bc_NWa
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
5
0
25
10 15 20
frequency (%)
-_-
z_-
25
-_z
The change of warm day (22--) into ground-frost, very cool day (5--) (22_5; change -4)
100
Wc_Wc
Wc_NEc
PPmc_PA
NWc_NWc
sum 100.0%
PPm_PA
Cc_Nc
PZ_rmp
Bc_NEa
frequency (%)
rmp_PA
sum 100.0%
80
60
40
20
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
-_z
50
c_z
rf_o
rf_ -
The change of moderately warm day (2--) into ground-frost, moderately cold (6--) (2_6; change -4)
50
rmp_PA
rmp_rmp
rmp_PPms
PZ_PPm
sum 100.0% PPms_PPm
PPms_PPk
PPmc_PPmc
PPm_PPm
PA_PA
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
sum 50.0%
frequency (%)
Wc_NW
Wc_Ka
Wc_Bc
Wa_Wa
Sc_Nc
NWc_Na
Nc_Ka
Na_Ca
Ec_Ec
Bc_NWc
sum 100.0%
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
z_-
25
rf_-
The change of moderately warm day (2--) into very warm day (3--) (2_3; change +2)
rmp_PZ
Sc_SWc
PPms_PPms
sum 100.0%
SWc_SWc
PA_PPmc
Wa_Wa
frequency (%)
100
Sc_SEc
sum 100.0%
80
60
40
20
0
0
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
50
0
10 20 30 40
frequency (%)
50
-_-
-_c
c_c
The change of cool day (1--) into ground-frost, moderately cold day (6--) (1_6; change -3)
sum 26.7%
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
50
PPms_PPms
PA_PA
rmp_PA
PPm_PPm
PPm_PPms
PPms_PPk
PPm_PA
PPk_PPk
25
sum 68.8%
frequency (%)
Wc_NWc
NWc_Nc
NWc_NWc
Bc_Ka
Wc_Wc
Wa_Wa
Nc_Nc
Nc_Na
Ka_Ka
sum 69.3%
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_- z_- o_- rf_- -_z rf_rf
The change of ground-frost, moderately cool day (4--) into warm day (22--) (4_22; change +3)
Wc_Wc
SWc_SWc
sum 51.0%
Ka_Ka
SWa_SWa
Ka_Wc
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
50
PPms_PPms
PPmc_PPmc
PPk_PPk
PPms_PPmc
PPk_PPmc
PPm_PZ
PPms_PPm
PPms_rmp
Wa_Wa
25
sum 77.6%
frequency (%)
sum 71.4%
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_-
-_c
-_o
rf_c
-_z
Fig. 3. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of circulation types, air masses and fronts accompanying changes
of selected thermal weather types in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
See Table 2 for abbreviations
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
The change of ground-frost, very cool day (5--) into fairly frosty day (9--) (5_9; change -4)
50
rmp_PA
PPms_rmp
PPms_PPms
PPms_PA
sum 100.0%
PPm_PA
rmp_PPk
PPms_PPk
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
sum 42.9%
sum 100.0%
frequency (%)
Bc_NEc
x_NEc
Wc_x
Wc_NWa
SWa_Wc
SEc_SEc
Nc_Na
Nc_Ea
Na_NEa
Ka_Ka
Cc_Nc
Cc_Ka
Bc_NEa
40
30
20
10
0
25
0
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
-_z
50
rf_-
rf_z
The change of ground-frost, very cool day (5--) into warm day (22--) (5_22; change +4)
50
Wc_Wc
Wc_Wa
Wa_SWa
SWc_Wc
SWc_SWc
SEa_SEa
SEa_Sa
rmp_PPmc
PPms_PPmc
sum
100.0%
sum
100.0%
PPk_PPk
PPmc_PPms
frequency (%)
sum 100.0%
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
50
-_-
z_-
z_c
c_-
-_c
The change of ground-frost, moderately cold day (6--) into ground-frost, very cool (5--) (6_5; change +1)
PPms_PPms
SWc_SWc
PPk_PPk
50
sum 71.0%
frequency (%)
Wa_Wa
PPk_PPms
Wa_Wc
sum 18.6%
Ka_Wc
sum 59.8%
PPms_rmp
Wc_Wc
PPms_PPm
Sa_Sa
PPmc_PPmc
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
0
25
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
50
-_-
-_z
-_c
-_o
-_rf
The change of ground-frost, very cold day (7--) into ground-frost, moderately cold (6--) (7_6; change +1)
100
PPk_PPk
sum 100.0%
PPk_PPms
sum 25.0%
PPms_PPms
sum 90.0%
PPmc_PPmc
Sa_Sa
PA_PPms
frequency (%)
Ka_Wa
80
60
40
20
0
0
5
10
15
20
0
25
10
frequency (%)
20
30
40
50
-_-
-_o
-_c
o_z
z_-
frequency (%)
The change of moderately frosty day (8--) into ground-frost, very cool day (5--) (8_5; change +3)
NWa_NWa
sum 30.2%
Wa_NWa
SEc_SEc
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
sum 67.9%
frequency (%)
Wa_Wa
Ka_Wc
50
PPms_PPms
rmp_rmp
PPk_PPms
PPms_rmp
PPk_PPk
PPk_rmp
PA_PPms
Wc_Wc
sum 66.0%
40
30
20
10
0
25
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_- -_c -_rf -_o -_z o_o
The change of fairly frosty day (9--) into ground-frost, moderately cold day (6--) (9_6; change +3)
Sa_Sa
NWa_N
Ka_SWc
Sa_SWc
Wa_Wc
Wa_Wa
SWa_Wa
Ka_Wa
Ka_NWa
Ka_Ka
Ea_Ka
50
PPk_PPk
PPk_PPms
sum 41.9%
PPk_rmp
sum 80.0%
PA_rmp
frequency (%)
sum 78.1%
PPms_PPms
40
30
20
10
PA_PPms
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
0
25
5
10 15 20 25
frequency (%)
-_-
30
-_c
-_z
-_o
The change of very frosty day (0--) into fairly frosty day (9--) (0_9; change +1)
Ka_a
Ea_a
SEa_a
SEa_c
Ea_Ec
Ca_a
Ca_x
80
PPk_PPk
PA_PPk
sum 72.0%
sum 100.0%
PPms_PPms
PPk_PPms
frequency (%)
sum 100.0%
PPk_rmp
60
40
20
PA_PPms
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
20
40
60
frequency (%)
80
-_-
-_c -_o -_z -_rf o_-
Fig. 4. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of circulation types, air masses and fronts accompanying changes
of selected thermal weather types in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
See Table 2 for abbreviations
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pheric fronts played no significant role the rise
of temperature observed would probably be explained primarily by insolation. Extreme cases of
a change from moderately cool frosty (4) to very
warm weather (0.4%; 4_3) and to ground-frost
moderately cold weather (0.4%; 4_6) occurred
once in the fifty-year study period. In the former
case the temperature surge was caused by the advection of warm air, and in the latter case by the
passage of a weather front.
The greatest scale of day-to-day change in
temperature occurred after days with groundfrost very cool weather (5) with nine possible
combinations of thermal weather types (Fig.
1). One of these was a dramatic change from
ground-frost very cool to fairly frosty weather
(5_9; 0.8%), which most frequently occurred as
varied air masses were replaced by Arctic air
(rmp_PA; 28.6%). A somewhat lesser influence
could be attributed to a change from cyclonic
trough to a cyclonic situation with northeastern
advection (Bc_NEc; 14.3%) (Fig. 4). Even less frequent was a change from ground-frost very cool
to warm weather (5_22; 0.4%, 7 instances, change
+4). This typically occurred on days without
fronts (42.9%) in various kinds of polar maritime
air (PPmc, PPms; combined 71.4%) or in polar
continental air (PPk; 28.6%) (Fig. 4).
Most days (62%) with ground-frost mode­
rately cold weather (6) were followed by either
ground-frost very cool (5) or moderately frosty
days (8) (Fig. 1). There does not seem to be any
significant pattern in the 6_5 sequence of thermal
weather types. The change was mostly accompanied by anticyclonic circulation and western
advection (Wa; 4.0%) of polar maritime old air
(PPms; 26.3%) and no frontal activity (38.6%)
(Fig. 4). Days with ground-frost moderately cold
weather (6) were also often followed by wide
temperature fluctuations, and the following day
could belong to any of eight thermal types ranging from moderately warm (2) to fairly frosty (9)
(Fig. 1).
The least frequent type of weather overall (7)
was typically followed by a day with a different
type of weather. That would normally be groundfrost moderately cold weather (6; 7_6; 40.8%)
(Fig. 1). This change was typically accompanied
by polar continental air masses (PPk; 35.0%) and
there was a lesser influence of a change in the
77
synoptic situation from anticyclonic wedge to an
anticyclonic situation with a western advection
(Ka_Wa; 15.0%) (Fig. 4). The next most frequent
successor after (6) was fairly frosty weather (7_9;
22.4%, change –2). The greatest change from (7)
was into the cool weather type (7_1; change +4),
but only two occurrences of this combination
were recorded during the study period (4.1%).
A day with moderately frosty weather (8) was
typically followed by either the same (40.3%) or
by warmer weather (37.1%) (Fig. 1). The next two
most likely thermal types of weather included
ground-frost moderately cold (6; 8_6; 28.4%) and
fairly frosty (9; 8_9; 22.6%). There was also a radi­
cal change into ground-frost very cool weather
(8_5; 8.0%, change +3) (Fig. 1). Looking at Figure
3, it is difficult to find a clear circulation-related
source of these day-to-day changes.
The day following fairly frosty weather (9) was
most likely to be of the same type (67.9%) (Fig. 1).
Where a change to a higher temperature occurred,
it was into types ranging from 8 to 5. Type (6) had
11.4% chance of occurring and was often accompanied by polar continental air (PPk; 29.5%) (Fig.
4). Only 2.5% of days following type (9) were colder enough to be classified as very frosty (0).
Only two sequence combinations occurred
after a very frosty day (0): either the weather
continued unchanged (0_0; 51.9%) or it warmed
up to fairly frosty (0_9; 48.1%) (Fig. 1). The latter change (0_9; change +1) was the most likely
(52.0%) in a specific range of synoptic situations
involving anticyclonic circulation, a set range of
air masses (especially polar continental at 72.0%)
and without fronts (60.0%) (Fig. 4).
4. Day-to-day change of weather
subtypes
A similar analysis to the one concerned with
the thermal types of weather was carried out
with weather subtypes defined by the two other elements of weather, i.e. cloudiness and precipitation. Thirty-six combinations of day-to-day
change were identified (Fig. 5), and the most frequent change was from very cloudy days with
precipitation (21; 30.8% of all combinations) and
cloudy without precipitation (10; 28.9% of all
combinations) (Fig. 6).
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
00_00
00_10
00_11
00_21
00_20
00_01
01_21
01_11
01_10
01_20
01_00
01_01
10_10
10_00
10_21
10_11
10_20
10_01
11_21
11_10
11_11
11_20
11_00
11_01
20_10
20_21
20_20
20_11
20_00
20_01
21_21
21_10
21_11
21_20
21_00
21_01
0
10
20
30
frequency (%)
40
50
Fig. 5. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of subtypes of weather in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
A day denoted 00 tended to be followed by
a similar day (00_00; 37.1%) (Fig. 5). Only slightly
less frequent was a sequence with a cloudy day
without precipitation (00_10, 31.7%). This change
was typically (41.5%) accompanied by polar continental air (PPk) and an anticyclone (Ka; 10.4%)
(Fig. 7). The relatively rare (8.7%) sequence of
sunny day without precipitation followed by
a very cloudy day with precipitation (00_21) was
mostly accompanied by a cold front (-_z; 36.2%)
and, much less frequently, by a change from the
anticyclonic wedge into a cyclonic trough (Ka_
Bc; 6.8%) (Fig. 7). The least frequent (1.8%) combination was a sequence of a sunny day without
precipitation (00) then a similar day with precipitation (00_01) (Fig. 5).
The least frequently occurring subtype (01;
Fig. 6) was most typically (69.4%) followed also
by a day with precipitation (either 21 or 11) and
only 28.7% of the following days were dry (01_–
0). The largest single successor was a very cloudy
day with precipitation (01_21, 44.4%) (Fig. 5). The
change of weather from sunny with precipitation
into very cloudy with precipitation (01_21) was
most frequently (33.3%) linked with the passage
of a cold front (-_z) (Fig. 7). A lesser influence can
be attributed to a change from high to low-pres-
sure systems and to polar maritime old air that
prevailed on such occasions. Interestingly, there
were only two instances when subtype 01 remained the same on the following day (1.9%)
(Fig. 5).
The typical sequence after both a cloudy day
without precipitation (10; 38.6%) and a very
cloudy day with precipitation (21; 48.7%) was the
same weather (Fig. 5). The least frequent change
with both subtypes (10; 21) was into a sunny day
with precipitation (01). Subtype 10 changed into
21 in 16.6% of cases and occurred most frequently
on a day without a front (-_-; 26.6%) and with polar maritime old air (PPms; 22.6%) (Fig. 7). A lesser impact would be exerted by the accompanying
change from southeastern cyclonic situation into
a cyclonic trough and from western anticyclonic
into a cyclonic situation (4.2%). The second most
frequent (19.8%) sequence after subtype 21 was
into cloudy without precipitation (21_10) (Fig.
5). This happened most frequently (18.1%) in
polar maritime old air (PPms) on a day without
atmospheric fronts (29.7%) (Fig. 7). There are no
apparent causes of this type sequence between
subtypes of weather. The relatively very infrequent change into the subtype 00 (21_00, 2.0%)
was typically accompanied by a change from cy-
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79
33_00
33_01
33_10
33_11
3_00
3_01
3_10
3_11
3_20
3_21
22_00
22_01
22_10
22_11
22_20
22_21
2_00
2_01
2_10
2_11
2_20
2_21
1_00
1_10
1_11
1_20
1_21
4_00
4_01
4_10
4_11
4_20
4_21
5_00
5_01
5_10
5_11
5_20
5_21
6_00
6_01
6_10
6_11
6_20
6_21
7_00
7_01
7_10
7_11
7_21
8_00
8_01
8_10
8_11
8_20
8_21
9_00
9_01
9_10
9_11
9_20
9_21
0_00
0_01
0_10
0_11
0_20
0_21
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
frequency (%)
Fig. 6. Frequency of occurrence (%) of subtype changes of weather in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
clonic to anticyclonic circulation (49.1%). There
does not seem to be a significant influence of this
combination from air masses and atmospheric
fronts (Fig. 7).
More than 80% of days with the subtype 11
were followed by either a very cloudy day with
precipitation (11_21), a cloudy day without precipitation (11_10), or unchanged weather (11_11)
(Fig. 5). The greatest scale of change is represented here by a sunny day without precipitation
(11_00). During the study period, this sequence
occurred with the frequency of 4.5%, mostly on
days without atmospheric fronts (37.0%) in polar
marine air masses (PPm, PPms; 19.2% combined)
(Fig. 7). No apparent influences could be identified from circulation types.
A very cloudy day without precipitation (20)
was most frequently followed (83.1%) by a day
with cloudiness above 20%. If for two consecutive days the same circulation type and air mass
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Katarzyna Piotrowicz, Joanna Szlagor
The change of sunny day without precipitation (-00) into cloudy day without precipitation (-10) (00_10)
sum 36.5%
100
PPk_PPk
PPms_PPms
PPmc_PPmc
PPms_PPk
PPk_PPms
PZ_PZ
PPk_rmp
PA_PA
sum 92.7%
frequency (%)
Ka_Ka
Sa_Sa
Wa_Wa
SEa_SEa
SWa_SWc
Ea_Ea
SWa_SWa
Ca_Ka
Ka_Sa
sum 74.5%
80
60
40
20
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
10
20 30 40
frequency (%)
50
-_-
-_z
-_c
z_- c_-
The change of sunny day without precipitation (-00) into very cloudy day with precipitation (-21) (00_21)
50
PPk_PPk
PPms_PPms
PPms_rmp
PPk_rmp
PPk_PPms
PPk_PPm
PPmc_PPmc
PA_PA
sum 33.9%
sum 87.0%
frequency (%)
Ka_Bc
SWa_Bc
Sa_Bc
SWa_Wc
Ka_Wc
SWa_Wa
SEa_SEc
Sc_Bc
Sa_Sc
sum 75.1%
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
0
25
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_z -_- -_rf -_o -_c -_st
The change of sunny day with precipitation (-01) into very cloudy day with precipitation (-21) (01_21)
Ka_Wc
Wa_NWc
Ka_Bc
SWa_Wc
SWa_Bc
Sa_Bc
Ka_NWc
Ca_Bc
Bc_Bc
50
PPms_PPms
frequency (%)
sum 87.5%
PPms_rmp
PPms_PPm
sum 45.8%
PPk_PPms
sum 64.6%
PPk_rmp
40
30
20
10
PPk_PPm
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_z -_rf -_- c_z z_z -_o
The change of cloudy day without precipitation (-10) into very cloudy day with precipitation (-21) (10_21)
sum 23.5%
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
50
PPms_PPms
PPk_PPk
PPms_rmp
PPm_PPms
PPm_PPm
PPk_PPms
PPmc_PPmc
sum 71.4%
frequency (%)
Wa_Wc
SWc_Bc
Wc_Wc
Wa_Wa
Ka_Bc
Sc_Bc
Ka_Wc
sum 58.8%
40
30
20
10
0
25
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
-_- -_z -_rf -_c z_- -_o
25
The change of very cloudy day with precipitation (-21) into cloudy day without precipitation (-10) (21_10)
Wc_Wc
Bc_Ka
Wc_Wa
Bc_Wa
Wa_Wa
Bc_NWa
Bc_Wc
NWc_NWa
Ka_Ka
sum 26.4%
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
50
PPms_PPms
PPm_PPm
rmp_PPm
PPk_PPk
PPm_PPms
PA_PA
PPms_PPm
sum 68.3%
40
30
sum 64.0%
20
10
0
25
5
0
10 15 20
frequency (%)
-_-
25
z_-
rf_-
o_- -_z
The change of very cloudy day with precipitation (-21) into sunny day without precipitation (-00) (21_00)
sum 32.7%
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
50
PPms_PPms
PPms_PPk
rmp_PA
PPk_PPk
rmp_PPm
PPm_PPms
PPm_PPm
rmp_PPms
25
sum 81.9%
sum 73.6%
frequency (%)
Bc_Ka
Wc_Wa
Wc_Ka
Wa_Wa
Wa_SWa
NWc_NWa
NWc_Ka
NWa_NWa
Na_Ca
Ka_Ka
Ec_Ka
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
z_- -_- rf_- o_- -_c c_-
The change of cloudy day with precipitation (-11) into sunny day without precipitation (-00) (11_00)
PPk_PPk
Wa_Wa
Bc_Ka
PPms_PPms
PPm_PPms
sum 28.1%
Wc_Wa
50
sum 85.2%
sum 53.3%
PA_PA
Wc_NWa
PPms_PPk
Wa_SWa
PPm_PPm
frequency (%)
Ka_Ka
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_- z_- o_- rf_- c_- z_z
Fig. 7. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of circulation types, air masses and fronts accompanying changes
of selected subtypes of weather in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
See Table 2 for abbreviations
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prevailed and there were no atmospheric fronts
over southern Poland then a very cloudy day
without precipitation was followed by a dry sunny day (20_00; 5.6%). The frequency of other dayto-day change combinations is shown in Figure 5.
5. Day-to-day change of weather types
The same method was applied to the sequence
of weather types as with thermal types and subtypes of weather. The 67 types of weather (Table
1) identified to have occurred in Kraków during
the period 1961–2010 had 1059 various potential
sequences. Figure 8 depicts the frequency of dayto-day change of some of the most common types
of weather. They were divided according to thermal types and for each group the most frequent
sequence was also given. The results from this
analysis were then compared with the accompanying changes of circulation types, air masses
and atmospheric fronts.
During the study period, most of the following
days represented the same type of weather as the
preceding days (Fig. 8). The four exceptions include three types of weather with ground frost (4-, 5--, 7--) and a frosty type (0--). The most common
successor to a day with ground-frost moderately
cold weather with clouds but no precipitation (410)
was a moderately warm, cloudy day also without
precipitation (410_210; 7.1%) (Fig. 8). This was
linked with a stable synoptic situation involving
similar circulation and air masses on these days
(Fig. 9). A very cloudy day with ground frost, very
cold weather and precipitation (521) was typically
followed by a cool and very cloudy day with precipitation (521_121; 6.6%) (Fig. 8). This sequence
was normally accompanied by a cold front (-_z;
13.4%) and stable western cyclonic circulation
(Wc_Wc; 10.9%), or its change into the northwestern cyclonic type (Wc_NWc; 10.1%) (Fig. 9). After
a sunny and very cold day with ground frost and
no precipitation (700), there followed a moderately cold, cloudy day with ground frost also without
precipitation (700_610; 8.2%). This change was accompanied by two days of anticyclonic circulation
type, primarily Ka and Wa, and polar continental
air (Pk). The cause of a change from very frosty
and sunny weather without precipitation (000)
into very frosty and cloudy without precipitation
81
(010) tended to be similar. On both days, the circulation would be anticyclonic, typically Ea, Ka or
Ca, accompanied by polar continental air (Pk).
Another interesting sequence is a change from
610 to 521. It would be accompanied by a similar circulation type (Wa; 10.3%) or by a change
from a high to a low-pressure system, e.g. from
an anticyclonic wedge into the western cyclonic
situation (Ka_Wc; 10.3%), and by polar maritime
old air (PPms; 27.6%), but no atmospheric front
would pass (Fig. 9).
6. Summary and conclusion
This paper presents an analysis of the dayto-day change of thermal types, subtypes and
types of weather linked with synoptic situations,
i.e. circulation types, air masses and atmospheric fronts. During the study period 1961–2010,
all combinations of day-to-day weather change
were analysed for the frequency of their occurrence using air temperatures, cloudiness and precipitation data from Kraków.
The approach adopted in the study was to
begin with an analysis of just the thermal types
of weather. There were 69 various combinations
of their day-to-day changes and a majority of sequences of the same weather on the following
day (61.3%). The three dominant sequences included 3_3, 22_22 and 2_2, and were accompanied by an also unchanged synoptic situation.
Wherever a change did occur it is worth noting
sequences that involved more than one “step” of
temperature change. Dramatic weather shifts involving a temperature drop (22_5 and 2_6) were
typically linked with a passage of an atmospheric
front (mostly cold) and with polar arctic air (PA).
Similarly dramatic shifts up the temperature
scale (4_22 and 5_22) were associated with polar
maritime air.
Weather subtypes were far more susceptible to day-to-day change, and the scale of that
change was also quite wide. A dry sunny day
(-00) could be followed by a cloudy day with precipitation (–21). This was most frequently linked
with a change of an anticyclonic into a cyclonic
circulation (56.5%) and the passage of a front
(70%). In only 36.5% of cases was a cloudy day
with precipitation followed by a day without
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3310_3310
3310_310
3300_3300
3300_310
3300_3310
310_310
310_311
310_300
300_300
311_321
2221_2221
2210_2210
2221_2210
2211_2221
221_221
210_210
211_221
121_121
121_521
121_120
410_210
400_400
400_210
400_200
521_121
510_510
521_521
521_621
621_621
610_610
621_821
621_521
700_610
710_610
700_900
821_821
820_820
821_621
821_921
821_820
921_921
910_910
910_900
920_910
900_900
000_010
010_000
011_921
010_910
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
frequency (%)
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
Fig. 8. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of weather types in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
precipitation. The sequence -11_–20 was not explained by any synoptic pattern.
Day-to-day changes of weather types had to
do with either a change of air masses or/and
passage of atmospheric fronts, while the influence of circulation types was not always clearcut. An example is the change from moderately
cool dry cloudy weather with ground frost (410)
to moderately warm very cloudy weather with
precipitation (221; 410_221). This sort of weather
change was mostly accompanied by a stable synoptic situation in terms of circulation types and
air masses.
Day-to-day changes of certain types of weather often require an individual approach to their
analysis. Each change of types may be caused by
a different synoptic situation, and the results of
an analysis are not always clear-cut. One suggestion for further research would be to expand the
same programme to include seasonality.
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83
The change of ground-frost, moderately cool day with clouds but no precipitation (410)
into moderately warm day with clouds but no precipitation (210) (410_210)
PPms_PPms
SWa_Wc
PPk_PPk
sum 42.1%
sum
47.4%
Wa_Wa
PPmc_PPmc
SWc_SWc
frequency (%)
100
SWc_Bc
sum 68.4%
80
60
40
20
0
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
0
5
10 15 20
frequency (%)
25
-_-
-_z
c_c
The change of ground-frost, very cool and very cloudy day with precipitation (521)
into cool and very cloudy day with precipitation (121) (521_121)
Wa_NWa
Sc_Bc
NWc_NWc
sum 38.7%
50
PPms_PPms
rmp_PPm
PPm_PPm
PPms_PPm
rmp_rmp
sum 29.4%
frequency (%)
Wc_Wc
Wc_NWc
Wa_Wa
sum 61.3%
PPms_rmp
PA_PA
Ec_NEc
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
0
25
5
frequency (%)
10
15
20
25
-_-
-_z
-_rf
frequency (%)
The change of ground-frost, moderately cold and cloudy day with precipitation (610)
into ground-frost, very cool and very cloudy day with precipitation (521) (610_521)
PPms_PPms
Ka_Wc
PPk_PPms
50
sum 72.4%
frequency (%)
Wa_Wa
PPmc_PPmc
SWc_Sc
sum 41.4%
sum 72.4%
PA_PA
SWc_Bc
PA_PPms
Ka_Bc
rmp_PPms
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
frequency (%)
5
10 15
20
25
30
-_-
-_o
-_z
-_c
-_rf
frequency (%)
Fig. 9. Frequency of occurrence (%) of day-to-day change of circulation types, air masses and fronts accompanying changes
of selected weather types in Kraków during the period 1961–2010
See Table 2 for abbreviations
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Polish-Hungarian bi-lateral project, TÉT_10-1-2011-0037 for the
partial support.
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