Glorious Goodwood Day 5:
Nassau Stakes & Stewards Cup
Trends & Pedigree
Analysing the 2014 Nassau
Stakes & Stewards Cup from an
alternative viewpoint
Guide by Badly Drawn Horse
www.badlydrawnhorse.co.uk
Nassau Stakes (Group 1)
2
nd
August – 3:15 Goodwood
Nassau Stakes: Winners Trends Analysis
This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Nassau Stakes so
that we can apply them to this year’s entries.
Nassau Stakes Trends
1
15/15 won 1 of their last 3 starts
2
15/15 ran at a Grade 1 track last time out
3
14/15 had 2 or more previous victories
4
14/15 had a 66%+ W-P S/R
5
13/15 had previously won a Group race
6
13/15 had a OR of 110+
7
13/15 had between 1 & 5 starts already that season
8
12/15 top 2 finish at G1 or G2 level in current season
9
12/15 had 12 or less previous starts
10
12/15 ran in a Group 1 race last time out
2014 Nassau Stakes Entries: Trends Applied
This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Nassau Stakes to this
year’s entrants.
VENUS DE MILO
NARNIYN
SULTANINA
MANGO DIVA
AMAZING MARIA
LUSTROUS
EASTERN BELLE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Tot
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
10/10
8/10
8/10
7/10
7/10
7/10
5/10
Trend Follower(s) – VENUS DE MILO
Nassau Stakes: Winners Pedigree Analysis
This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Nassau Stakes and
applies them to this year’s entries.
*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.
DP
15/15 had 14 points or more in DP
12/15 had 20 points or more in DP
DI
14/15 had a DI of 0.91 or above
12/15 had a DI of 1.18 or above
2/15 had a DI above 2.64
CD
15/15 had a CD of -0.05 or above
13/15 had a CD of 0.17 or above
12/15 had a CD of 0.24 or above
DPA
(12/15) - DQ - 4 / 20+ - 8 / PATB - 0
2014 Nassau Stakes Entries: Dosage Applied
Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –
Snug Fit
MANGO DIVA
3-7-11-1-0
20+
22
2.38
0.55
EASTERN BELLE
5-2-13-2-0
20+
22
1.59
0.45
VENUS DE MILO
4-2-14-4-0
20+
24
1.18
0.25
SULTANINA
2-2-6-2-0
/
12
1.40
0.33
AMAZING MARIA
3-3-8-0-0
/
14
2.50
0.64
NARNIYN
2-0-5-0-1
/
8
1.29
0.25
LUSTROUS
1-2-8-1-2
PATB
14
1.00
-0.07
Can’t be discounted
Not ideal
Wide of the mark
n/a
2014 Nassau Stakes: Pace & Draw analysis
Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –
Draw
Horse
RS
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
EASTERN BELLE
MANGO DIVA
NARNIYN
AMAZING MARIA
LUSTROUS
SULTANINA
VENUS DE MILO
CP
CP/HU
HU/CP
CP
HU
CP/HU
HU/CP
HU
LUSTROUS
Running Style
CP
CP/HU
HU/CP
CP
HU
CP/HU
HU/CP
CP
FR
EASTERN BELLE
MANGO DIVA
NARNIYN
AMAZING MARIA
SULTANINA
VENUS DE MILO
No clear front-runner here and this could get tactical.
Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race –
Running Style
fr-2 / cp-8 / hu-5
Nassau Stakes Summary
Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 13)
VENUS DE MILO – 13/13
MANGO DIVA – 10/13
SULTANINA – 10/13
NARNIYN – 10/13
Most likely winner
VENUS DE MILO (A P O’Brien) – The O’Brien horse stands out on the figures with full
marks and she does bring some solid Group form to the table. She has stamina up her
sleeve so Joseph O’Brien may well elect to test the stamina limitations of the others by
kicking for early, an option that should be easy enough for him to achieve with no obvious
pace in the race. The mare seems to enjoy going Right-Handed (form of 121812) and this
looks a great opening for her to secure her first G1 victory.
Alternative(s)
SULTANINA (J Gosden) – If the O’Brien horse is to get beat then it’s likely to be by the
rapidly improving John Gosden runner, who finished a fine 3rd in the Lancashire Oaks on
only her 3rd career start. If the rain does get into the ground then she will be right at home
and does look to have the ability to step up to G1 level.
Stewards Cup (Class 2 Hcp)
2
nd
August – 3:50 Goodwood
Stewards Cup: Winners Trends Analysis
This section compiles the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Stewards Cup so
that we can apply them to this year’s entries.
Stewards Cup Trends
1
14/15 were (GB) or (IRE) bred
2
14/15 had an OR of 104 or below
3
12/15 carried 9-05 or less
4
15/15 were aged 4, 5 or 6
5
13/15 had their last run between 6 & 23 days previous
6
15/15 recorded a top 3 finish on 1 of their last 3 starts
7
13/15 ran at a G1 track last time out
8
13/15 ran in a Class 2 handicap last time out
2014 Stewards Cup Entries: Trends Applied
This section applies the important trends of the past 15 winners of the Stewards Cup to this
year’s entrants.
HOODNA
DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW
MUTHMIR
SHROPSHIRE
NINJAGO
BLAINE
SIR MAXIMILIAN
SEEKING MAGIC
ARNOLD LANE
BOOMERANG BOB
FLYMAN
BARRACUDA BOY
INTRINSIC
HALLELUJAH
CLEAR SPRING
FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
EXPERT
ZERO MONEY
BEAR BEHIND
MAR MAR
REX IMPERATOR
BALLESTEROS
JOEY'S DESTINY
BORDERLESCOTT
ALBEN STAR
ASHPAN SAM
RUWAIYAN
YORK GLORY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Tot
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
N
N
Y
N
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
N
N
Y
N
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
Y
N
N
N
Y
N
N
8/8
8/8
8/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
7/8
6/8
6/8
6/8
6/8
6/8
6/8
6/8
5/8
5/8
5/8
5/8
4/8
4/8
4/8
3/8
Trend Follower(s) – HOODNA | DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW | MUTHMIR
Stewards Cup: Winners Pedigree Analysis
This section compiles the *Dosage trends of the past 15 winners of the Stewards Cup and
applies them to this year’s entries.
*Dosage is a powerful statistical analysis tool that is used to dissect a horse’s pedigree.
DP
14/15 had 8 points or more in DP
11/15 had 12 points or more in DP
DI
12/14 had a DI of 1.13 or above
0/14 had a DI above 3.00
CD
12/14 had a CD of 0.08 or above
11/14 had a CD of 0.20 or above
DPA
(9/15) - DQ - 0 / 20+ - 6 / PATB - 3
2014 Stewards Cup Entries: Dosage Applied
Here the runners are split in 4 groups based on their Dosage strength for the race –
Snug Fit
JOEY'S DESTINY
5-3-8-0-0
/
16
3.00
0.81
SEEKING MAGIC
11-7-11-2-1
DQ
32
2.76
0.78
BEAR BEHIND
4-3-9-0-0
/
16
2.56
0.69
MUTHMIR
4-5-11-0-0
20+
20
2.64
0.65
EXPERT
2-1-5-0-0
/
8
2.20
0.63
FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN
3-1-5-1-0
/
10
1.86
0.60
DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW
2-3-7-0-0
/
12
2.43
0.58
BORDERLESCOTT
1-11-9-0-1
20+
22
3.00
0.50
ARNOLD LANE
6-0-14-2-0
20+
22
1.44
0.45
SHROPSHIRE
3-1-12-0-0
/
16
1.67
0.44
CLEAR SPRING
3-1-12-0-0
/
16
1.67
0.44
HOODNA
2-3-13-0-0
/
18
1.77
0.39
ALBEN STAR
2-3-7-2-0
/
14
1.55
0.36
INTRINSIC
1-4-10-1-0
/
16
1.67
0.31
RUWAIYAN
3-4-11-4-0
20+
22
1.32
0.27
HALLELUJAH
2-1-3-1-1
PATB
8
1.29
0.25
REX IMPERATOR
2-2-4-0-2
/
10
1.50
0.20
NINJAGO
3-1-4-0-0
/
8
3.00
0.88
ASHPAN SAM
0-8-1-1-0
/
10
5.67
0.70
YORK GLORY
10-12-9-0-1
20+
32
4.82
0.94
SIR MAXIMILIAN
4-1-5-0-0
/
10
3.00
0.90
ZERO MONEY
9-1-9-1-0
20+
20
2.64
0.90
BLAINE
2-0-2-2-0
/
6
1.00
0.33
FLYMAN
1-0-2-0-1
/
4
1.00
0.00
BARRACUDA BOY
1-1-2-0-0
/
4
3.00
0.75
MAR MAR
4-3-11-4-4
DQ
26
0.93
-0.04
BOOMERANG BOB
1-4-11-0-4
20+
20
1.11
-0.10
BALLESTEROS
1-0-8-2-1
/
12
0.71
-0.17
Can’t be discounted
Not ideal
Wide of the mark
2014 Stewards Cup: Pace & Draw analysis
Here we take a look at the race from a Pace & Draw angle –
Draw
Horse
RS
Running Style
28
Seeking Magic
CP
27
Expert
CP
26
Rex Imperator
HU/CP
HU/CP
25
Arnold Lane
HU/CP
HU/CP
24
Mar Mar
CP/FR
23
Discussiontofollow
CP/HU
CP/HU
22
Intrinsic
HU/CP
HU/CP
21
Ashpan Sam
FR/CP
20
Joey's Destiny
HU/CP
19
Alben Star
HU/CP
18
Shropshire
HU
17
Zero Money
CP/FR
16
Flyman
CP
CP
CP
CP/FR
FR/CP
HU/CP
HU/CP
HU
CP/FR
CP
15
Ninjago
HU
14
Hallelujah
HU/CP
13
Blaine
CP
CP
12
Borderlescott
CP/HU
CP/HU
11
Sir Maximilian
CP/HU
CP/HU
10
Boomerang Bob
CP/HU
9
Fairway To Heaven
HU
HU
HU
HU
HU/CP
CP/HU
8
Ruwaiyan
HU
7
Clear Spring
CP/HU
6
Barracuda Boy
CP
CP
5
Hoodna
CP/HU
CP/HU
4
Bear Behind
FR/CP
3
York Glory
HU
2
Muthmir
CP/HU
CP/HU
1
Ballesteros
HU/CP
HU/CP
CP/HU
FR/CP
HU
HU
CP
FR
Seeking Magic
Expert
Rex Imperator
Arnold Lane
Mar Mar
Discussiontofollow
Intrinsic
Ashpan Sam
Joey's Destiny
Shropshire
Alben Star
Zero Money
Ninjago
Flyman
Hallelujah
Blaine
Borderlescott
Fairway To Heaven
Ruwaiyan
Sir Maximilian
Boomerang Bob
Clear Spring
Barracuda Boy
York Glory
Hoodna
Bear Behind
Muthmir
Ballesteros
This looks very much slanted towards a middle to high pace bias. BEAR BEHIND (stall 4) will give them
something to aim at low but the majority of the pace will come from 24 (MAR MAR), 21 (ASHPAN SAM) &
17 (ZERO MONEY). Stall 15 and above may well be the area to concentrate on although depending on how
they split it may be prudent to look at stall 11 and above.
Here is the how the past 15 winners of the race have run in the race –
Running Style
fr-0 / cp-6 / hu-9
Stewards Cup Summary
Dosage & Trends COMBINED shortlist (Total possible score 9)
MUTHMIR – 9/9
DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW – 9/9
HOODNA – 9/9
SEEKING MAGIC – 8/9
ARNOLD LANE – 8/9
SHROPSHIRE – 8/9
INTRINSIC – 8/9
NINJAGO – 8/9
With a race of this nature I have to go with what my pace maps tell me with regards to the draw. As
such MUTHMIR (stall 2) & HOODNA (stall 5) have to be passed over as I do believe that the main pace
will be middle to high.
Most likely winner
DISCUSSIONTOFOLLOW (M Murphy) – A horse that has done precious wrong in his
career to date and is clearly improving at a rate of knots. His form over 6f reads 21113 and
his form in 16+ fields reads 311, both angles clearly a bonus for this contest. He is lightly
raced, could well be a Group horse in the near future and looks a strong contender here.
Alternative(s)
INTRINSIC (R Cowell) – Another that is lightly raced and on the up, with the bonus of
winning over course & distance last time out and having winning form on Good to Firm,
Good to Soft and Soft. His handicap mark has obviously been protected for this and he
could still be a fair bit ahead of the handicapper.
NINJAGO – The Hannon horse is a BDH runner and is discussed in the main part of today’s
post.
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Please note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance.
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