Energy Alert – Second Long Term
Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico
October 4, 2016
Table of Contents
1
Executive Summary
3
2
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
4
3
Details of final awarded projects
6
4
Technology distribution and selected states
7
5
Allocated amounts by technology
8
6
Awarded nodes analysis
9
7
EY Professionals
Page 2
10
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Executive Summary
►
The Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016 promise to reach the goal of the Mexican Energy
Reform.
►
The CENACE published the final list of awarded projects for the Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico
on September 28, 2016.
►
A high degree of participation was achieved; 57 bidders submitted economic offers, of which 23 were awarded
projects, of a total of 326.
►
4 billion USD + 2.6 billion USD of the 1st auction will be invested.
►
34 generation companies will be established in Mexico.
Key Aspects
Participants in auction
 Multi-energy tender
 A complex bid evaluation process with
regional adjustment of bid prices
 Choice of payment indexation on Mexican
inflation or on a combination of Mexican
inflation, US inflation and MXN/USD FX rate
 Bidders offer packages of up to 3 different
products
 Bidders were allowed to offer a combined
package price for the totality of its offered
products
 Counterpart: CFE subsidiary (Basic
service supplier)
 Clearing House: corporate entity that
shall administer all contracts awarded
through auctions
 Bidders:
foreign and local private
investors alongside CFE and Pemex
(State productive companies)
►
Next important dates
 September 30th 2016: Notification of
selected Sale Offers to each Bidder
 January
30th
2017:
SPV
Incorporation
 January
31st
2017:
Contract
subscription
FX MXP/USD = $18
Source: CENACE, CRE and EY analysis
Page 3
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term Auction
Scenario 1: Based on weighted formula of Auctions Manual
Cumulative Energy
(USD/MWh)
Capacity (USD/MW)
Demand –
Counterpart
Purchase Offer
Awarded in 2nd Long
Term Auction
1st Long Term
Auction
Amount
Max. Price
Avg. Price
Amount
Max. Price
Avg. Price
% Awarded
% Demand Max. $/
Awarded Avg. $
Amount
Max. Price
Avg. Price
$
$
$
$
1,483.00
93,817.00
73,489.98
1,187.16
54,973.95
29,439.06
80.05%
$
$
$
$
31.38%
$
$
-
10,629,911.00
41.70
34.75
8,909,819.30
26.47
20.28
83.82%
CEL (USD/CEL)
$
$
$
$
48.63%
$
$
5,402,880.50
43.72 $
31.99 $
10,629,911.00
20.85
17.55
9,275,534.00
19.52
13.08
87.26%
62.72%
5,380,911.00
21.86
16.44
►
The previous table shows the final numbers considering the weighted formula established under the
“Long Term Auction Manual” (in spanish, “Manual de Subastas de Largo Plazo”).
►
As per the above statement, a reduction of 31% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy was
made (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.
►
38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic Service
Suppliers Purchase Offer.
►
FX MXP/USD = $18
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Page 4
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Comparative: 1st vs 2nd Long Term Auction
Scenario 2: Based on more conservative Capacity price
Cumulative Energy
(USD/MWh)
10,629,911.00
Capacity (USD/MW)
Amount
Demand –
Counterpart
Purchase Offer
1,483.00
1st Long Term
Auction
10,629,911.00
Max. Price
$
93,817.00
$
41.70 $
20.85
Avg. Price
$
73,489.98
$
34.75 $
17.55
Amount
Awarded in 2nd Long
Term Auction
CEL (USD/CEL)
1,187.16
8,909,819.30
9,275,534.00
Max. Price
$
54,973.95
$
25.79 $
21.14
Avg. Price
% Awarded
% Demand Max. $/
Awarded Avg. $
Amount
$
25,823.96 $
80.05%
18.00 $
83.82%
15.15
87.26%
43.16%
72.67%
Max. Price
$
-
$
43.72 $
21.86
Avg. Price
$
-
$
31.99 $
16.44
27.53%
-
5,402,880.50
5,380,911.00
►
The previous table shows the final numbers, using a weighted formula suggested by EY specialists.
►
As per the above statement, a reduction of 32% in the average Price per offer of Clean Energy was
made (Energy + CEL), as compared to the 1st LT Auction.
►
38% of threshold optimization, which corresponds to the average optimization of CFE Basic Service
Suppliers Purchase Offer.
►
FX MXP/USD = $18
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Page 5
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Details of final awarded projects
#
Name
Awarded
bids
Pricing Area
Technology
$ Annual Offer
(USD)
Capacity
(MW-year)
Cum. Energy
(MWh)
CEL
1
Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I de C.V.
2
Reynosa
Wind
$
60,144,563.11
-
1,613,416.80
1,613,416.00
2
Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I de C.V.
3
Monterrey
Wind
$
34,138,371.30
76.74
820,635.81
774,938.00
3
Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V.
1
Ixtepec
$
4
Comisión Federal de Electricidad
2
Carapan and Cananea
Wind
Geothermal and
Combined Cycle
31,811,645.85
-
818,264.52
818,264.00
$
29,663,639.61
399.98
198,764.40
198,764.00
5
Alten Energías RenovablesMéxico Cuatro, S.A. de C.V.
6
Aguascalientes
Solar Photovoltaic
$
29,004,025.56
74.59
722,043.79
812,417.00
6
Consorcio Fotowatio
2
Saltillo
Solar Photovoltaic
$
22,379,235.39
-
779,161.60
779,161.00
7
AT Solar
3
Hermosillo
Solar Photovoltaic
$
19,582,448.51
29.00
478,260.96
478,260.00
8
Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de C.V.
2
Moctezuma
Solar Photovoltaic
$
15,077,500.28
-
393,611.32
393,611.00
9
Enel Green Power México, S. de R.L. de C.V.
1
Reynosa
Wind
$
13,589,573.44
-
399,129.86
399,129.00
10
Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de C.V.
2
Hermosillo
Solar Photovoltaic
$
13,575,058.11
-
353,466.00
353,466.00
11
FRONTERA MÉXICO GENERACIÓN S DE RL DE CV
5
Reynosa
Combined Cycle
$
12,266,052.67
474.93
-
-
12
X-Elio Energy, S.L.
2
Juárez
Solar Photovoltaic
$
10,984,139.17
30.00
363,137.04
363,136.00
13
Consorcio ENGIE Solar Trompezon
1
Aguascalientes
Solar Photovoltaic
$
10,889,268.60
-
342,629.62
338,851.00
14
OPDE
4
Laguna
Solar Photovoltaic
$
9,584,863.52
-
289,509.10
289,508.00
15
Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V.
1
Obregón
Solar Photovoltaic
$
9,456,626.73
-
249,982.32
249,982.00
16
Consorcio SMX
3
Aguascalientes
Solar Photovoltaic
$
9,281,416.28
10.00
278,357.76
563,973.76
17
TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V.
1
Güemez
Wind
$
8,882,696.95
21.62
223,010.76
223,010.00
18
HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de C.V.
3
Laguna
Solar Photovoltaic
$
8,088,001.11
18.30
252,444.87
252,444.00
19
Consorcio Guanajuato
1
Querétaro
Solar Photovoltaic
$
5,341,362.02
12.00
146,957.76
146,957.00
20
ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV
2
Mexicali
Solar Photovoltaic
$
3,807,377.29
-
114,115.90
117,064.00
21
GREEN HUB S DE RL DECV
1
Querétaro
Solar Photovoltaic
$
2,617,057.50
10.00
72,919.11
72,919.00
22
GENERADORA FENIX SAPI DE CV
6
Central
Hidropower
$
2,448,098.80
-
-
314,631.00
23
Energía Renovable de la Península, S.A.P.I. de C.V.
2
Mérida
Wind
$
987,392.00
30.00
-
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Page 6
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
-
Technology distribution for awarded projects and
selected States
2% 4%
Solar
Wind
Hydropower
2
Geothermal
1
CEL
41%
53%
Combined Cycle
6
8
11
3
2%
4
13
9
12
10
15
7
Cumulative
Energy
44%
54%
9
5
Selected States in 2nd Auction
Selected Sates (1st + 2nd Auction)
14
15%
►
1 Sonora
►
7 Michoacán
►
13 San Luis Potosí
►
2 Baja California
►
8 Coahuila de Zaragoza
►
14 Morelos
►
3 Baja California Sur
►
9 Aguascalientes
►
15 Jalisco
►
4 Tamaulipas
►
10 Guanajuato
►
5 Oaxaca
►
11 Nuevo León
►
6 Chihuahua
►
12 Yucatán
11%
Capacity
Source: CENACE and EY analysis
Page 7
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
72%
2%
Allocated amounts by technology
►
►
►
CEL 
9.27M CELs
Cumulative Energy 
8.90 TWh
Capacity 
1,187.16 MW
Cumulative Energy
CEL
Capacity
16%
13%
20%
2%
3%
2%
2%
26%
26%
26%
36%
100%
36%
100%
46%
100%
57%
9%
45%
12%
Initial
Purchase
Offer
Not Awarded
Awarded
Combined Cycle
(CCGT)
Initial
Purchase
Offer
Geothermal
Not Awarded
Hydropower
Initial
Purchase Not Awarded
Offer
Awarded
Wind
Source: CENACE
Page 8
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
Solar
Awarded
Awarded nodes analysis
Awarded Energy
(GWh)
1.
338
Puebla
1,558
Saltillo
4,025
Reynosa
439
Querétaro
499
Obregón
1,595
2.
4a.
4b.
5.
Moctezuma
231
Mexicali
932
Laguna
387
Juárez
1,636
Ixtepec
1,633
Hermosillo
446
Güemez
397
Carapan
6.
7.
8.
9a.
9b.
11.
12.
13a.
13b.
Enel Green Power México, S. de
R.L. de C.V.
3b.
Parque Eólico Reynosa III, S.A.P.I
de C.V.
4a.
GREEN HUB S DE RL DE CV
4b.
Consorcio Guanajuato
5.
Bluemex Power 1 S.A. de C.V.
6.
Parque Eólico El Mezquite, S.A.P.I
de C.V.
7.
Quetzal Energía México S.A.P.I. de
C.V.
8.
ENERGIA SIERRA JUAREZ
HOLIDNG S DE RL DE CV
9a.
HQ Mexico Holdings, S. de R.L. de
C.V.
9b.
OPDE
11.
X-Elio Energy, S.L.
12.
Eolica de Oaxaca S.A.P.I. de C.V.
13b. AT Solar
15.
14.
TRACTEBEL ENERGIA DE
ALTAMIRA, S. DE R.L. DE C.V.
15.
Comisión Federal de Electricidad
15a. Consorcio SMX
Aguascalientes
15a.
5
10
15
20
25
LMP range (min - max)
USD/MWh
30
15b. 15c.
35
15d.
15b. Consorcio ENGIE Sola Trompezon
40
45
50
Clean Energy Average Price
FX MXP/USD = $18 for Clean Energy Average Price
Source: CENACE, PRODESEN and EY analysis
Page 9
Consorcio Fotowatio
3a.
13a. Kamet Energía México, S.A.P.I de
C.V.
14.
0
►
3b.
3a.
Monterrey
787
2,931
1.
X-Elio Energy, S.L.
2.
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
15c. OPDE
15d. Alten Energías
Renovables México Cuatro, S.A.
de C.V.
EY Proffesionals
Alfredo Álvarez
Partner - Energy Segment Leader
EY Mexico
Loic LeGall
Executive Director - Power & Utilities
EY Mexico
Tel:
+52 (55) 5283 1179
Email: [email protected]
Tel:
+52 (55) 4094 6488
E-mail: [email protected]
Rafael Aguirre
Partner - Transaction Advisory Services
EY Mexico
José Salas
Partner - Advisory
EY Mexico
Tel:
Tel: +52 (55) 1101 7329
Email: [email protected]
+52 (55) 5283 8650
Email: [email protected]
Page 10
Rodrigo Fernández
Partner - Transaction Tax
EY Mexico
Paul Roberti
Executive Director - Power & Utilities
EY Mexico
Tel:
+52 (55) 5283 8666
E-mail: [email protected]
Tel:
+52 (55) 5283 8666
E-mail: [email protected]
Second Long Term Clean Energy Auctions in Mexico 2016
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