Ch t 11
Chapter
Political Socialization
and Public Opinion
American Government: Continuity and Change
9th Edition
How Political Socialization and other
Factors Influence Opinion Formation
† Political
P liti l S
Socialization
i li ti
„ The process through which an individual
acquires particular political orientations
„ The learning process by which people
acquire their political beliefs and values
p.390
Agents of Socialization
† Family
F
il
„ Children learn their political values from
their parents
† School & Peers
„ Starting very early,
early students are taught
respect for the US ~ Pledge of Allegiance
„ As we get older
older, our peers become a very
important factor
„ School has a liberalizing
g effect on students
† Critical thinking ~ Questioning the status quo
p.391-394
p.392
Most first year college
students*
p.392
Agents of Socialization
† Mass Media
„ Surveys estimate that 40% of American
adults
d lt watch
t h 30 h
hrs off TV/week
TV/
k & children
hild
even more
„ TV/radio talk shows often skew their
information
„ 2004 ~ Survey
y estimated that 40%
learned about candidates from late night
entertainment shows
p.394-396
Agents of Socialization
† Religion
l
~ 2ndd largest
l
predictor
d
off vote
after political party ~ 76% consider
religion an important part to their lives
„ ’72 ~ Richard Nixon referred to religious
people
p
p as the “silent majority”
j
y
„ ’79 ~ Jerry Falwell – Moral Majority
† Dissolved in ‘89
„ ’88 ~ Pat Robertson – Christian Coalition
† 700 Club
p.396-397
p.397
Most likely to vote conservative*
p.397
Agents of Socialization
† Race & Ethnicity
„ Black children generally show positive
f li
feelings
about
b tA
Am society,
i t less
l
w// time
ti
„ Some stark differences in black v. white
attitudes regarding US response to
Hurricane Katrina ~ Next Slide
„ Hispanics
p
& Native Ams similar opinions
p
„ National origin can divide an ethnic group
† Hispanics from Cuba = Conservative/Repub
† Hispanics from Mexico = Liberal/Democratic
p.397-398
p.398
p.399
Agents of Socialization
† Gender
G d
„ Polls indicate men & women differ on a
variety of issues
† Women nurturers ~ Men aggressive
† Political Parties
„ Single women = Democrats
„ White men = Republicans
† Men & women close on military affairs
following 9/11,
9/11 but moving apart
p.398-400
Agents of Socialization
† Gender
G d
„ Polls indicate men & women differ on a
variety of issues
† Women nurturers ~ Men aggressive
† Political Parties
„ Single women = Democrats
„ White men = Republicans
† Men & women close on military affairs
following 9/11,
9/11 but moving apart
p.398-400
p.400
Generally speaking, women are more supportive of
social welfare policies
policies*
p.400
Agents of Socialization
† Age
A
~ Has
H a decided
d id d effect
ff
on political
li i l opinions
i i
p.400-401
Agents of Socialization
† Age
A
~ Has
H a decided
d id d effect
ff
on political
li i l opinions
i i
Age trends*
p.400-401
Agents of Socialization
† Region
„ Immigrants naturally settled in areas w/
th
those
off similar
i il religious
li i
customs
t
&
traditions
† Scandinavians in Minnesota
† Irish, Italian, Jewish in large urban center of
the Northeast
„ North v. South ~ Natl v. States Rights
„ West ~ Avoid city life & seek as much
i d
independence
d
as possible
ibl
p.401
Kerry ~ Large cities,
Northeast & West Coast
Bush ~ 59% of rural &
small towns, the South &
Midwest
Figure from Chap 1
Text Only ~ p.401
Kerry ~ Large cities,
Northeast & West
Coast
Bush ~ 59% of rural &
small towns, the South
& Midwest
Figure from Chap 1
Text Only ~ p.401
The Impact of Events
† K
Key political
liti l events
t play
l
a very important
i
t t role
l
in a person’s socialization ~ Next Slide
† Nixon
Nixon’s
s resignation in 1974
„ Impression on young people
„ Government not always right or honest
† Survey in 2006 (Age 18-20) ~ Contrast
„ Failed to report a single political event that
affected them during their early school years
† Many major studies conducted in the
aftermath of Watergate & the Vietnam War
revealed
l d a dramatic
d
ti drop-off
d
ff in
i the
th trust
t
t off
the govt ~ Upcoming Slide
p.402
p.402
Figure from Chap 1
Text Only ~ p.402
Largest impact of political
socialization in recent history
(Watergate & Viet Nam)
Figure from Chap 1
Text Only ~ p.402
p.403
What is the most frequently mentioned problem?
p.403
What is the most frequently mentioned problem? Crime
p.403
Half--Way
Half
Wa Point
Ch t 11
Chapter
Political Socialization
and Public Opinion
American Government: Continuity and Change
9th Edition
Public Opinion and Polling
† What
h the
h public
bl thinks
h k about
b
a particular
l
issue/set of issues at any point in time
† Public
P bli O
Opinion
i i
P
Polls
ll
„ Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that
are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of
the entire population
† George
g Gallup
p
((1901-1983),
), Ph.D
„ U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern polling
„ He believed ldrs must constantly take public
opinions—no matter how short lived—into
consideration
p.403-404
Public Opinion and Polling
† What
h the
h public
bl thinks
h k about
b
a particular
l
issue/set of issues at any point in time
† Public
P bli O
Opinion
i i
P
Polls
ll
„ Interviews/surveys w/ samples of citizens that
are used to estimate the feelings & beliefs of
the entire population
† George
g Gallup
p
((1901-1983),
), Ph.D
„ U of Iowa ~ Founder of modern polling
„ He believed ldrs must constantly take public
opinions—no matter how short lived—into
consideration
p.403-404
The History of Public Opinion
Research
† 1883 ~ Boston Globe sent reporters to
selected precincts to poll voters as they
exited
† 1916 ~ Literary Digest mailed survey
questions
i
to potential
i l voters (phonebook,
( h
b k
club rosters, city directories, mail order
lists etc
lists,
etc.))
„ Correctly predicted the Pres
election from 1920 to 1932
p.404-407
History of Public Opinion
Research
† Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin
to develop until the 1930s
„ Walter Lippman’s,
pp
, Public Opinion
p
((1922)) stated that
public opinion was too limited
† Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to
gauge
g
g p
public opinion
p
on issues & p
policies
„ Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf Landon
would defeat FDR in 1936
„ George Gallup
† Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contest
† Techniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.
† Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner
p.404-405
History of Public Opinion
Research
† Public opinion polling as we know it did not begin
to develop until the 1930s
„ Walter Lippman’s,
pp
, Public Opinion
p
((1922)) stated that
public opinion was too limited
† Earlier straw polls used unscientific surveys to
gauge
g
g p
public opinion
p
on issues & p
policies
„ Literary Digest ~ Incorrectly predicted that Alf
Landon would defeat FDR in 1936
„ George Gallup
† Correctly predicted the 1936 presidential contest
† Techniques became more sophisticated in the 1940s.
† Dewey incorrectly predicted as winner
p.404-405
George Gallup Jr. now
chairs the organization
Recent Efforts to Measure
Public Opinion
† National Election Study conducted at
University of Michigan since 1952
† Internet
„ Harris Interactive achieved a 99% accuracy
rate of 73 political contests in November
2000
„ Weakness: Many
y poor
p
& elderly not on-line
p.406-407
Traditional Public Opinion Polls
† How questions are asked
„ Have you stopped beating your wife?
„ Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.
† Selecting the sample
„ Random Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that
gives each person the same chance of being selected
p g ~ A variation of random sampling;
p g
„ Stratified Sampling
census data are used to divide the country into four
sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard
metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected
in proportion to the total national population
† Contacting respondents
„ Telephone polls most frequent (95% have)
† Cell phones may affect in future
„ Pollsters exempt from the no-call list
† Constitutionally protected free speech issue
p.407-409
Traditional Public Opinion Polls
† How questions are asked
„ Have you stopped beating your wife?
„ Emotional issues~abortion, same sex marriage, etc.
† Selecting the sample
„ Random Sampling ~ A method of poll selection that
gives each person the same chance of being selected
p g ~ A variation of random sampling;
p g
„ Stratified Sampling
census data are used to divide the country into four
sampling regions. Sets of counties and standard
metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected
in proportion to the total national population
† Contacting respondents
„ Telephone polls most frequent (95% have)
† Cell phones may affect in future
„ Pollsters exempt from the no-call list
† Constitutionally protected free speech issue
p.407-409
Political Polls
† Push Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of
providing “pushing” voters away from a particular
candidate
„ “Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a child
molester?”
† Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a
campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support
„ Next Slide
† E
Exit
i Polls
P ll ~ P
Polls
ll conducted
d
d at selected
l
d polling
lli
places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter
„ Large
g news organizations
g
„ Eastern to Pacific time zones ~ ’80 Carter conceded to
Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed
p.409-411
Political Polls
† Push Polls ~ Polls taken for the purpose of
providing “pushing” voters away from a particular
candidate
„ “Would you vote for Bob if you knew he was a
child molester?”
† Tracking Polls ~ Continuous surveys that enable a
campaign to chart its daily rise or fall in support
„ Next Slide
† E
Exit
i Polls
P ll ~ P
Polls
ll conducted
d
d at selected
l
d polling
lli
places on Election Day ~ Sample every 10th voter
„ Large
g news organizations
g
„ Eastern to Pacific time zones ~ ’80 Carter conceded to
Reagan before polls in west closed ~ no longer allowed
p.409-411
Small samples
p
contacted
every 24-hours
p.410
Shortcomings of Polling
† V
Voter
t News
N
Svc
S made
d exit
it poll
ll errors during
d i
the
th
20000 presidential election
„ Failed to est # of voters accurately
y&
inaccurate exit poll model
„ Incorrectly estimated the number of African
American & Cuban voters
„ Results lead to predict Al Gore winner in FL &
therefore overall
† VNS disbanded
di b d d in
i 2003
† Major networks & Associated Press joined
together
og
to
o form
o
a new polling
po g consortium,
o o u , the
National Election Pool
p.411-412
Shortcomings of Polling
† V
Voter
t News
N
Svc
S
made
d exit
it poll
ll errors
during the 20000 presidential election
„ Failed to est # of voters accurately
y&
inaccurate exit poll model
„ Incorrectly estimated the number of African
American & Cuban voters
„ Results lead to predict Al Gore winner in
FL & therefore overall
† VNS disbanded
di b d d in
i 2003
† Major networks & Associated Press joined
together
og
to
o form
o
a new polling
po g consortium,
o o u , the
National Election Pool
p.411-412
Shortcomings of Polling
† Sampling
S
li
E
Error ~ M
Margin
i off Error
E
„ A measure of accuracy
„ If margin
g of error is larger
g than the difference = Too
close to call
† 51% to 49% w/ error of 3%
† Limited Respondent Options
„ Do you like this class?
Yes - No
† Lack of Information
„ Difficult to respond if little is known
† Difficulty Measuring Intensity
„ Emotional level can affect answers
† Abortion v. Eliminating the Electoral College
p.411-412
Why We Form and Express
Political Opinions
† Personal
P
lB
Benefits
fi
„ Polls indicate we are becoming more “I” oriented
„ “Vote with y
your pocketbook”
p
† Political Knowledge
„ The more one understands about the political process,
the more likely he is to become involved
„ USDE report suggests today’s college grads have less
civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago
„ 2002 N
Natl
tl G
Geographic
hi study
t d showed
h
d th
thatt 87% off
Americans (18-24) could not find Iraq on a map
„ 2004 Annenberg study states that men know more
about
b t iissues, b
butt women vote
t more th
than men off their
th i
own income & educational level ~ Go figure
p.412-414
Why We Form and Express
Political Opinions
† Personal
P
lB
Benefits
fi
„ Polls indicate we are becoming more “I” oriented
„ “Vote with y
your pocketbook”
p
† Political Knowledge
„ The more one understands about the political process,
the more likely he is to become involved
„ USDE report suggests today’s college grads have less
civic knowledge than HS grads 50 yrs ago
„ 2002 Natl
N tl Geographic
G
hi study
t d showed
h
d that
th t 87% off
Americans (18(18-24) could not find Iraq on a map
„ 2004 Annenberg study states that men know more
about
b t iissues, b
butt women vote
t more th
than men off their
th i
own income & educational level ~ Go figure
p.412-414
p.413
Why We Form and Express
Political Opinions
† Cues from Leaders
„ High visibility & access to the media gives leaders
tremendous
e e dous power
po e to
o affect
a ec (manipulate)
( a pu a e) opinion
op o
„ Geo W. original call for spt of Afgan & Iraq War
† Political Ideology
„ 3
30% ~ Conservative = Smaller,
ll
lless activist govt.
Against abortion & same sex marriage
„ 29% ~ Liberal = Favor activist govt. Okay w/ abortion
& same sex marriage.
i
Should
Sh ld help
h l the
h
poor/disadvantaged
„ 35% ~ Most classify themselves as Moderate
„ 06% ~ Didn’t know/refused to label self
p.412-414
The Effects of Public Opinion
p
&
Polling on Government & Politics
† P
Politicians
liti i
& govtt spend
d $Ms/yr
$M / to
t take
t k pulse
l
of the public ~ Reliance on polls hard to judge
† Benjamin Ginsberg (Pol Sci Johns Hopkins) ~
Critical of the passive voice of public opinion.
Should go w/ active response (unsolicited
phone calls/letters)
† George Gallup’s response ~ One might as well
insist that a thermometer makes the weather
† Early poll success/failure can make/ruin a
candidate
p.414-416
Ch t 11
Chapter
Political Socialization
and Public Opinion
American Government: Continuity and Change
9th Edition