NEW CANAAN DOWNTOWN MARKET DEMAND STUDY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Prepared for:
The Town of New Canaan
Market Demand Study Committee
Prepared by:
BFJ Planning, in collaboration
with Urbanomics
Date: December 30, 2011
Acknowledgements
Town Board of Selectmen
Jeb Walker, First Selectman
Robert E. Mallozzi
Sally T. Hines
Market Demand Study Committee
John Goodwin, Chairman
Jarvis Cromwell
Tucker Murphy
Leslie Razook
Kajsa Sheibley
Steve Kleppin, Town Planner, ex officio
BFJ Planning
Frank Fish, FAICP, Principal, Planning
Susan Favate, AICP, PP, Associate
Joanna Todaro, Planner
Urbanomics
Regina Armstrong, Principal
Tina Lund, Senior Associate
Miriam Schiller, Focus Group and Survey Advisor
New Canaan Market Demand Study
12/30/11
I. INTRODUCTION
Downtown New Canaan provides a destination for shopping, dining and entertainment for the
Town’s residents and visitors, as well as a center of community government and institutions.
The downtown area contains a mix of retail, office, service, community and Town government
uses, in roughly 1 million square feet of development in an 80-acre business district. One of the
major recommendations of the Town of New Canaan’s Plan of Conservation and Development
(2003) for the downtown area was to conduct a detailed study of the Town Center area to
address current conditions and issues. The 2007 Downtown New Canaan Strategic Plan that
came out of that recommendation further suggested that the Town conduct a detailed market
analysis for the downtown area to identify the potential market demand for businesses by type.
This recommended study was intended to set a baseline for targeted marketing efforts to retain
existing commercial development and generate new, desirable and sustainable economic
growth. The information from the study would help to identify the most desirable specific uses
and activities for the downtown, and what regulatory changes and business outreach efforts
may be needed to promote and attract such uses and activities.
In response, the Town of New Canaan commissioned in early 2011 a commercial market study
of the downtown area to evaluate the overall market feasibility of future downtown development
by assessing the existing supply of commercial uses, quantifying the demand for new uses and
evaluating potential market impacts of changes to parking capacity. The study also examines
recent and proposed zoning changes by the Planning and Zoning Commission and the potential
for increased in-town housing. In addition, the study assesses whether increased in-town
housing would affect downtown business.
This New Canaan Downtown Market Study embodies four key goals:
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Determine how current commercial uses are meeting demand and assess likely impacts
of changing conditions.
Evaluate how to best serve New Canaan residents and attract non-resident customers.
Assess how downtown New Canaan can compete with other communities and Internet
retailers…
While maintaining downtown New Canaan’s unique character and amenities.
To help guide the study, the Town appointed a six-member Market Demand Study Committee
that met regularly with the consultant team throughout the planning process, and formulated a
set of overarching questions to inform the study:
1. How do we enhance/maximize “Main and Elm”? (see pages 81-87)
2. How do we best utilize the Downtown outside of “Main and Elm”? (see pages 81-87)
3. What strategies should be undertaken by merchants and by the Town for our merchants
to be successful? (see pages 81-87)
4. What businesses do we encourage to enter New Canaan and how? (see pages 45-48,
51-59, 81-82, 89)
5. How does our Downtown thrive in the Internet age? (see pages 84-85)
6. How do we attract consumers from outside New Canaan? (see pages 81-87)
7. What is, and how do we market, the New Canaan brand?(see pages 86-87)
8. Are current rent levels a major challenge, and if yes, how do we address the issue? (see
pages 82-83)
9. How do we incorporate sustainability into our thinking and planning? (see pages 86-87)
New Canaan Market Demand Study
12/30/11
10. Is the growth trend in restaurants a positive or negative? How do we leverage or mitigate
the trend? (see pages 37-48, 81-87)
11. What parking initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization? (see pages 6770, 83-84)
12. What planning and zoning initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization? (see
pages 70-78, 81-82)
13. Are the recommendations consistent with, and support, our community values (including
the Plan of Conservation and Development)? (see pages 81-87)
14. What are the opportunities with, and the role of: potential senior housing downtown, the
Metro-North terminus and mixed-use development? (see pages 67-80)
15. What traffic analysis should be performed in light of growth projections and
recommendations? (see pages 67-70)
The New Canaan Downtown Market Demand Study reflects quantitative analysis of
demographic projections, employment information and other “hard” data, as well as qualitative
analysis based on input from a wide range of stakeholders. Community input was gathered
through two public workshops; resident and merchant focus groups and intercept surveys; oneon-one interviews with merchants, commercial property owners, and representatives from the
senior community and the Planning and Zoning Commission; and an extensive online opinion
survey.
The final study is divided into five major sections: a supply analysis looking at the current
conditions and inventory of commercial uses; a demand analysis evaluating how that inventory
is serving both New Canaan as well as a larger market area; a market impacts analysis looking
at the potential effect on downtown businesses from several factors; a set of recommendations
intended to capture the value of downtown New Canaan while preserving its inherent character
and quality of life; and a discussion on implementation measures to ensure that the
recommendations are effectively and appropriately realized.
The full study is available from the Town Land Use Department. The following pages provide an
executive summary of the study’s key findings.
New Canaan Market Demand Study
12/30/11
New Canaan Downtown Market Demand Study
Executive Summary
WWW.BFJPLANNING.COM
Project Purpose
ƒ Determine how current commercial uses
are meeting demand and assess likely
impacts of changing conditions.
ƒ Evaluate how to best serve New Canaan
residents and attract non-resident
customers.
ƒ Assess how downtown New Canaan can
compete with other communities and
Internet retailers...
ƒ …While maintaining downtown New
Canaan’s unique character and
amenities.
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Answering the “Big Questions”
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How do we enhance and/or revitalize Main and Elm?
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How do we best utilize the downtown area outside of Main and Elm?
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What strategies should merchants and the Town use to increase success?
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What businesses should we encourage to enter New Canaan and how?
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How does our Downtown thrive in the Internet age?
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How do we attract consumers from outside New Canaan?
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What is, and how do we market, the “New Canaan” brand?
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Are current rent levels a challenge, and if so, how do we address the issue?
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Is the growth trend in restaurants positive or negative?
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What parking initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization?
Project Overview
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Resident & Merchant Focus
Groups/Interviews: Key Issues
Key issues identified:
Key issues identified:
Residents
Merchants
ƒ Town’s image/shopping aesthetic
ƒ Retail vacancies
ƒ Walkability & safety
ƒ Parking
ƒ Parking
ƒ Balance of restaurants
ƒ Child/Teen-friendliness
ƒ Balance of chains vs. “mom & pops”
ƒ Convenience shopping
ƒ Rent levels
ƒ Special events/downtown activities
ƒ Special events/downtown activities
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Landlord Interviews
ƒ Key takeaways:
ƒ More supportive of chain stores (preferably
regional chains)
ƒ More likely to see vacancies as reflective of
larger economy or unique situation
ƒ Neutral on restaurants
ƒ Looking for more parking, possibly tiered or
structured
ƒ Zoning and signage regulations need to be
clear and consistent
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Senior Perspective
ƒ Senior Health Care & Housing Report
ƒ Staying Put New Canaan Interview: Key takeaways
ƒ Seniors are aware and proud of downtown New Canaan, but
don’t shop there heavily
ƒ Major impediments to seniors’ shopping in downtown New
Canaan: tight budgets, parking concerns
ƒ Seniors willing to drive to surrounding towns for deals,
selection (especially grocery stores)
ƒ High senior interest in cultural destinations and restaurants
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Supply Analysis
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Largest downtown use nonmedical office (32%)
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Retail use also significant
(22%) but little of this is
convenience retail
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Overall vacancy rate 4%
(7.5% for retail), down from
5% overall (13% for retail) in
August
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Vacancy concentration
remains Main St./East Ave.
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Demand Analysis
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Gaps Analysis
Key takeaways:
New Canaan Retail Sales vs.
Resident Spending Elsewhere
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Suggested uses for downtown
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Grocery/specialty food stores
Designer clothing and accessories
Restaurants
Health/personal care
Florists/other miscellaneous
Sports/youth-oriented
New Canaan
Retail/Restaurant
Sales
$185,815,489
Additional New
Canaan Resident
Retail/Restaurant
Expenditures
$417,965,926
Other potential downtown activity
ƒ Offices
ƒ Hospitality, entertainment, cultural
ƒ Personal and community services
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Gaps Analysis: Key Comparables
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Further detailed analysis of Darien and
Westport demographic comparables:
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New Canaan is seeing more spending
leakage than comps…
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…But Westport and Darien contain key
commercial corridors of Route 1, I-95.
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Online Survey
The objectives of the Consumer Demand Survey were to validate and quantify what was
heard in focus group discussions and to explore the potential for new shops and facilities
for our business area.
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473 New Canaan residents
(7% response rate)
54 respondents from
surrounding towns
New Canaan Households
New Canaan Respondents
Householder 18 to 24 years:
0.6%
0.7%
Householder 25 to 34 years:
5.3%
3.3%
Householder 35 to 44 years:
20.5%
20.0%
Householder 45 to 54 years:
32.1%
36.4%
Householder 55 to 64 years:
16.8%
21.9%
Householder 65 to 74 years:
11.0%
10.4%
Householder 75 years and over:
13.7%
7.4%
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Key Survey Findings
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Downtown’s greatest strength is its ambiance: very pleasant, friendly
atmosphere, can find a place to relax/have a meal or meet friends
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Downtown’s weakness: lack of variety in goods as well as price points
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73% of residents have visited the downtown 20 times or more in the
past 6 months
43% have been downtown 20 times or more in the past 6 months to go
shopping (supermarket trips excluded)
Demand strongest for:
ƒ Retail:
ƒ Supermarket/greengrocer
ƒ Women’s apparel and shoes
ƒ Kitchenware
ƒ Other
ƒ Theater/entertainment facility
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Market Impacts Analysis: Parking
Tiered parking at Locust Street lot
Parking structure at Lumberyard lot
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Market Impacts Analysis:
Recently Adopted/Potential Zoning Changes
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Retail B zone: (increased building heights,
FARs, flexibility to promote mixed use)
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Prior proposals for Business A,B,C zones
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Minimal potential increase in downtown
residential population
Little likely effect on downtown residential
population, some potential impact from
more in-town employment
Incentive Housing Overlay Zone (IHOZ)
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Most sites discussed not in downtown core
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Market Impacts Analysis:
Senior Housing and Metro-North Terminus
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Senior Housing
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Town report recommends 100 independent senior
housing units needed. Evaluating several locations
within the downtown vicinity.
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Overall positive impact on businesses if downtown
senior housing is pursued.
Metro-North Terminus
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Potential to capitalize on New Canaan’s rail
terminus through joint marketing efforts.
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Revisit earlier (2010) marketing effort with MTA
“One-Day Getaways” program.
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Market Impacts Analysis:
Summary
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Potential Actions:
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Increased parking capacity
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Zoning changes
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Senior housing
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Capture of Metro-North terminus potential
Key Takeaway:
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Each action alone would have minimal impact on downtown businesses, but together
could have a more substantial effect.
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Major Regional Findings: Summary
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New Canaan’s place in the region will remain unchanged.
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Town will not draw significantly more customers from other towns, nor
should it lose any market share.
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Stamford to remain regional driver of job growth.
Opportunities to capture approximately 10% of current leakage through focus
on key growth uses (e.g. grocery, apparel).
Overall growth in population will be stable (about 500 people between
2010-2020).
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Major Downtown Findings
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Fairly good balance between real estate supply and demand.
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Greatly expanded downtown not needed (compatible with Plan of
Conservation & Development and a sustainable downtown)
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Overall character of downtown is an attraction and should be
maintained.
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Parking should be expanded with at-grade and single-tiered parking at
Locust Avenue, potential expansion of commuter parking at the
Lumberyard, improved parking management strategies.
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Preliminary Recommendations: Town Actions
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Suggested downtown uses:
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Potential zoning changes
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Grocery and specialty food stores
Designer clothing/accessories
Youth-oriented/sports stores
Restaurants/Inn
Medical Offices
Cultural Use/cinema at downtown theater
5,000 sf cap on stores in downtown core to support small-scale, local businesses (up to
current limit of 7,500 sf would still be allowable by special permit)
Allow hotels/inns by special permit in downtown
Clarify definitions of some uses (e.g. grocery stores) to promote them as appropriate
Other
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Explore potential to convert New Canaan Playhouse into film center (e.g. Jacob Burns Film
Center in Pleasantville, NY)
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Preliminary Recommendations: Parking
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Parking
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Increase capacity at Locust Avenue via
construction of tiered parking structure for
shoppers
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Increase capacity at Lumberyard lot
through construction of commuter parking
garage
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Improve parking management system
(metering on Elm Street, better
wayfinding/signage)
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Increase attractiveness of municipal
parking lots/structures for seniors and other
motor-impaired visitors
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Preliminary Recommendations:
Technology & Special Events
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Encourage merchants to make full use of existing technology:
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Attractive and functional websites
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Social media (Facebook, Groupon, Living Social, Restaurant.com)
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iPhone QR code scan tags
More downtown special events:
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Involve charitable organizations, in-home artisans to cross-promote, drive traffic
Hold more regular downtown events, e.g. retail “late nights,” creation of temporary or
seasonal entertainment spaces (ice rink, carousel)
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Preliminary Recommendations:
Marketing Opportunities
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Create package deals to co-market New Canaan attractions, market seasonally
through Metro-North, Western Connecticut Visitors Bureau, etc.:
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Glass House
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Silvermine Arts Center
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Waveny Park
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New Canaan Nature Center
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New Canaan Historical Society
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Preliminary Recommendations:
Streetscape & Quality-of-Life Improvements
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Capitalize on New Canaan’s charm and sense of place:
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Create dumpster regulations to allow shared dumpsters in
centralized off-street sites
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Continue to maintain, improve sidewalks, benches, other street
furniture
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Explore creation of new public areas (pocket parks, seating areas)
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Implementation
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Institutional entity should be created for carrying out recommendations.
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Stress marketing (including co-marketing with other in-town assets), business
attraction, events and financial support to supplement Chamber and Town efforts.
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Possible venue:
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Public-private Economic Development Commission (EDC) model staffed by consultant
funded through Town appropriation/matching Chamber grant
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