EGG INDUSTRY STATS SUMMARY FOR 2015
INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1. Egg prices
According to Statistics SA (Stats SA), the average producer price for 2015 was R14.79/dozen, compared
to R14.35 for 2014; a 3.1% increase. These averages are weighted according to the expected grade-out.
They do not take rebates into account.
The retail price was R23.10/dozen large. During the past five years, the mark-up on eggs has increased
steadily from 51% in 2011 to 65% in 2015 (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Annual producer and retail price of large eggs (source: Stats SA)
Data collected by SAPA indicates that the average producer price of all sizes, net of discounts and
rebates, was R 11.65/dozen. The percentage representation of the survey increased from 9.7% in
December 2014 to 19.5% in December 2015. The difference between the two prices (SAPA versus Stats
SA) was -R3.14/dozen (-21.2%) which is an indication of the total rebates taken by the retailers.
SAPA is in the process of extending the survey to include producer prices of barn and free-range eggs.
Any producer who would like to take part is encouraged to contact Silverpath Consulting.
2. Price comparison with other protein sources
Eggs remained an economical source of animal protein in 2015, costing R16.65/kg. This compared to
R18.43/kg for broiler meat (at farm-gate level), R22.83/kg for pork (at abattoir level), and R27.27/kg and
R34.17/kg for beef (class C2/C3 and A2/A3 respectively, at abattoir level).
3. International price comparison
The average price in the northeast region of the United States of America (USA) in 2015 for white, size
large, was US$1.90; for white, size medium, US$1.57; and for brown, size large, US$2.05 per dozen
(source: Urner Barry). Depicted in rands, using the average exchange rate of R12.73 to the US dollar for
the year 2015, white, size large, was R24.15; white, size medium, R20.02; and brown, size large, R26.05
per dozen.
The US Department of Agriculture gives the average prices per dozen for the northeast region for extralarge, large and medium eggs as $1.78, $1.75 and $1.43 respectively.
Figure 2 shows the movement in egg prices in the USA over the past five years. The soaring prices in the
second half of 2015 were caused by egg shortages following the slaughter of over 40 million layers
infected with avian influenza (AI).
Figure 2: USA egg prices
4. Layer breeders
Due to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the USA, difficulties were experienced
importing grandparent stock into South Africa.
In 2015 there were an estimated 9 000 layer breeding hens in the grandparent operations producing
layer parents, and another estimated 328 000 layer breeding hens in the parent operations producing
layers. There are no pure lines or great-grandparents in South Africa.
5. Day-old pullets
Day-old pullet placements increased by 1.9% in 2015, reaching a total of 24 901 100; an average of
477 390 per week (Figure 3). In terms of feather colour, 59.1% were silver and 40.9% were brown strains.
Figure 3: Trend in day-old pullets placed
6. Layer flock
The size of the national layer flock increased by 2.1% during 2015 to 24.85 million hens (Figure 4). An
average flock of 25.05 million hens is projected for April 2016; an increase of 264 000 hens (+1.1%)
compared to April 2015.
This growth is not due to the adjustment in culling age in the egg forecasting model. Age at hen
depopulation was increased from 72 to 74 weeks in November 2013 and the change was gradually
phased in during 2014.
Figure 4: The national layer flock
7. Egg production
This year, 2015, saw a reversal in the downward trend in egg production of the past two years (Figure 5).
The average number of cases produced per week was 407 770, an increase of 8 184 cases (+2.1%) per
week. Total egg production in 2015 amounted to 21.26 million cases, or 638 million dozen eggs.
Figure 5: Cases of eggs produced
Of all the forecasted marketable graded eggs (Grade 1) that were sold in 2015, 8.8% were size medium,
45.0% were large, 42.4% were extra-large and 3.8% were jumbo. There was a 1.8% increase in extralarge and jumbo eggs compared to 2014, no doubt because of the longer laying cycle.
The table below summarises bird numbers and egg production and shows the changes for 2015
compared to the previous year.
BIRD AND EGG NUMBERS FOR THE EGG INDUSTRY (MILLIONS)
DOP placed
LRP placed
Per annum
23.421
Avg. no.
Depop.
2014
Per annum
24.432
24.340
21.610
Per annum
20.837
2015
24.901
23.645
24.851
21.641
21.262
Change
0.469
0.223
0.511
0.031
0.425
% Change
1.92
0.95
2.10
0.14
2.04
YEAR
Laying hens
Cases of eggs
DOP = Day-old pullets
LRP = Layer replacement pullets
Figure 6 depicts the relationship between egg volume and producer price. From January 2011 to
February 2013, positive growth in egg production was projected and the producer price for eggs
decreased relative to the overall Producer Price Index (PPI). The high year-on-year increases in producer
prices of 2013/14 were associated with a decreasing supply of eggs, or negative growth in egg
production. In 2015 there was a small growth in egg volumes compared to the previous year, and large
increases in the producer price towards the end of the year.
Figure 6: Percentage change in egg volume and producer price
It is important to note that an adjustment was made during the year to the method of calculating the
mean egg price from the sample data. In the first nine months, a straight average was used. From
October, a weighted average egg price was calculated taking the volume of eggs produced into account.
Indications are that during this period larger producers were getting higher prices than their smaller
counterparts, because the weighted average egg price was higher than the straight average.
Figure 7 shows the trends in the official PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) since 2013, with December
2012 as a base. As input costs rise, the producer price tends to adjust automatically over time and this is
reflected in changes to the PPI. The PPI for eggs had consistently lagged behind the other indexes, until
August 2015 when it increased rapidly. Egg prices are normally governed by supply and demand; a
reduction in hen numbers would lead to a shortage of eggs and hence an increase in the price per dozen
(Prof. Gerald Ortmann, University of KwaZulu-Natal). Egg producers would have been happy with
realisations at the end of the year, but that period has in all likelihood been followed by decreased sales
volumes and surplus stocks.
Figure 7: Trends in PPI and CPI (source: Stats SA)
8. Prospects for 2016
The number of point-of-lay pullets placed is expected to increase by 3.8% during the first four months of
2016, compared to the same period in 2015.
An average flock of 25.0 million layers is projected for the first four months of 2016. This will be an
increase of approximately 250 000 layers (+1.0%) compared to the same period in 2015. Consequently,
egg production is expected to increase by 0.8% (an average of 3 370 cases per week) to an average of
409 300 cases per week in the first four months of 2016.
9. Gross value
With a gross turnover of R9.83 billion at producer level, eggs remain the fourth largest animal product
sector in agriculture in South Africa, after poultry meat, beef and milk (source: Department of
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)). The turnover increased by 6.9% compared to 2014. Eggs’
share of the gross value of animal products was 8.6% and of all agricultural production 4.2%.
The total value at retail level was R14.7 billion for 2015. About 638 million dozen eggs were sold in 2015
through various channels.
10. Input costs
The average layer feed price for 2015 was R3 422/ton; an annual increase of 0.5%. This followed yearon-year increases of 23.7%, 12.0% and 4.8% in the previous three years. The layer feed price includes
distribution, but excludes medication, additives and VAT. The movement in the feed price is shown in
Figure 8.
The South African rand exchange rate for December 2015 averaged R15.32 to the US dollar, R3.72
higher than the December 2014 rate of R11.60. The highest exchange rate for the rand to the US dollar
over the 12 months of 2015 was R16.05, recorded in the last week of December. The most favourable
exchange rate of R11.48 to the dollar was achieved in January 2015.
Figure 8: Layer feed price
11. Feed usage
The feed usage for layers and pullets is summarised in the table below.
FEED USAGE FOR THE EGG INDUSTRY (TONS)
Rearing
Laying
Per annum
Per annum
Per annum
Per week
2014
142 039
1 012 431
1 154 470
22 141
2015
143 570
1 032 999
1 176 569
22 564
Change
1 531
20 568
22 099
424
% Change
1.08
2.03
1.91
1.91
YEAR
Total feed usage
According to the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association (AFMA), national feed sales for the layer
industry from 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2015 amounted to 958 325 tons; a 0.4% year-on-year increase.
Their national estimate, including feed manufactured by non-AFMA members, was 1 235 387 tons.
SAPA’s forecasting models predicted a feed intake of 1 160 348 tons for the same period; 75 039 tons
less (-6.1%).
12. Consumption
The per capita consumption for 2015 was 150 eggs or 8.76 kg, compared to 147 or 8.55 kg in 2014
(source: DAFF). While the population increased by a midyear estimate of 1.8%, the total consumption of
eggs increased by 2.3%. Peak egg consumption in South Africa occurred in 2012 at 162 eggs per person
(Figure 9).
Figure 9: Per capita egg consumption in South Africa
The annual per capita consumption of eggs for some of the top egg-eating nations is shown in Figure 10.
South Africa ranked 29th out of the 31 countries that took part in the 2014 International Egg Commission
(IEC) survey. Considerable scope still exists for increasing the per capita consumption of eggs in South
Africa, particularly when taking into account the price competitiveness compared with other animal
proteins.
Figure 10: Per capita consumption (source: IEC)
INDUSTRY TURNOVER
The estimated turnover from the egg industry is shown in the table below. Point-of-lay sales are not
included. The egg industry contributes 20% to total turnover of the poultry (broiler plus egg) industry.
DOP INDUSTRY
Year
Price
R/dop
Turnover
(R million)
2014
2015
Change
% change
7.38
7.88
0.50
6.8
180.3
196.2
15.9
8.8
Producer
price
(R/doz)
10.77
11.65
0.88
8.2
EGG INDUSTRY
Cull
Turnover
price
(R million)
(R/bird)
6 732.4
26.72
7 431.2
27.78
698.8
1.06
10.4
4.0
TOTAL
Turnover
(R million)
Turnover
(R million)
577.4
601.2
23.8
4.1
7 490.1
8 228.6
738.4
9.9
SMALL-SCALE EGG FARMERS
These statistics summarise a quarterly survey conducted by Silverpath Consulting. All prices exclude
VAT. The data collection forms were amended during the year to improve the quality of the statistics;
for this reason, it is not possible to report on the entire year.
1. Pullet rearing
A total of 17 090 pullets were being reared during the fourth quarter of 2015 (4Q2015) by 10 pullet
rearers. The weighted average price per day-old pullet was R7.29. The previous quarter’s average price
was R9.55.
The average price paid per 50 kg bag for starter mash was R262.00, for grower mash R250.20, and for
developer mash R247.80. The total quantity purchased per month during 4Q2015 was 553 bags (26.8
tons). The total value of the feed purchases was R117 844 per month.
Total sales of point-of-lay pullets amounted to 11 170 birds. The average selling price was R57.87 per
bird.
2. Point-of-lay hens
Sixty-five egg producers bought point-of-lays from recognised pullet rearers, as well as smaller
independent rearers and traders. Three of the egg producers reared their own pullets. Hens were kept
in battery cages on sixty-one farms; there were four free-range farms and one that had both housing
types.
A total of 114 747 hens were purchased at a weighted average purchase price of R56.17. The flock size
for the 68 respondents was 253 111. The laying facilities could hold 470 565 hens, which means that
they were stocked at 53.8% of their capacity during 4Q2015.
3. Layer feed
Sixty of the respondents bought their feed in 40 kg or 50 kg bags. In total 3 057 bags were purchased per
month. This equated to 147 tons per month of layer feed.
The weighted average price for laying mash, excluding VAT and transport, was R208.99/50 kg. This
equated to R4 179.75/ton.
Eight of the survey respondents were buying in bulk. They purchased 371 tons per month at an average
price of R3 832.61/ton.
The total value of the layer feed purchases was R2 034 233 per month, that is, R6 102 700 per quarter.
4. Egg sales
Eggs were sold to the community, schools, restaurants, a hospital, bed and breakfast establishments,
and local spaza shops. The average egg price during 4Q2015 was R13.40/dozen, although the weighted
average was R11.83/dozen.
Total sales amounted to 89 064 dozen per week, that is, 1 161 744 dozen per quarter. The average rate
of lay for the 253 111 hens was 110%. (This indicates that either the egg or hen numbers are not entirely
correct as the farm average rate of lay should be about 80–85%.) The total value of the eggs produced
for 4Q2015 was R13 741 331.
5. Cull hen sales
Old hens were sold live to the community via informal markets and hawkers, and to schools. In total
73 121 culls were sold at a weighted average selling price of R33.76/hen.
TRADE
During 2015, exports of eggs for consumption totalled 9 828 tons (9 832 tons if you include preserved or
cooked ostrich eggs). Chicken shell eggs (fresh and preserved) contributed 6 203 tons (63.1%) to total
egg exports, with shell eggs from other poultry types amounting to 2 396 tons (24.4%). An amount of 4.1
tons of preserved or cooked ostrich eggs were exported. Egg product (yolks, raw pulp, albumins)
contributed 1 229 tons (12.5%). The egg product consisted of 200 tons (16.2%) of liquid egg product and
1 029 tons (83.8%) of dried egg (Figure 11).
The total value of the egg exports for consumption was R227.7 million (including the ostrich eggs
above); a 10.5% increase compared to 2014.
In addition, 8 920 tons of fertile chicken eggs and 365 tons of fertile eggs from other bird species were
exported during the year. The export value of the fertile chicken eggs was R247 million and the value of
the fertile eggs from other species was R5.4 million.
Figure 11: Product mix of egg exports for consumption
The destinations of egg exports (for consumption and fertilised) were mainly Mozambique with 56.2% of
the total exports, followed by Zimbabwe with 12.3%, Angola 9.5%, Swaziland 8.8%, Lesotho 4.4% and
Namibia 4.1%. These six countries received 95.6% of South Africa’s exports.
Total imports of eggs, including shell eggs and egg products (liquid and dried), was 342.7 tons in 2015;
120 tons less (-25.9%) than in 2014. The egg product component amounted to 333.7 tons, of which
332.5 tons was dried egg product. Imports of chicken shell eggs totalled 8.5 tons.
The total value of the egg imports was R37.4 million; a 4.0% decrease compared to 2014.
THE GLOBAL EGG INDUSTRY
At the end of 2015, the news dominating the global egg market centred on the stampede of big
corporations from battery-produced eggs to cage-free eggs. Concerns about a resurgence of AI
outbreaks in the northern hemisphere winter also made headlines. Despite the effects of AI, the global
egg industry was expected to produce 70 million tons of shell eggs and egg products during the year.
Global growth in egg production has averaged 2.8% per annum since 2000. More than half of the global
flock is located in the Asia-Pacific region. About 16% of the laying hen flock is found in the 28 European
Union (EU) countries and 9% in North America. In terms of individual countries, the top four egg
producers are China, the USA, India and Japan. Both Mexico and Turkey have seen over 40% growth in
their egg industries since the start of the millennium.