Int J Primatol DOI 10.1007/s10764-013-9671-2 Determining Sensitive Parameters for the Population Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans (Pongo abelii) Doris Kelle & Dominik Fechter & Alexander Singer & Peter Pratje & Ilse Storch Received: 30 June 2012 / Accepted: 14 February 2013 # Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013 Abstract Although reintroduction has been a widely implemented conservation tool, in many cases it is unclear whether the released animals can successfully establish a viable and self-sustaining population. We constructed a population model for reintroduced Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) and conducted a population viability analysis to evaluate the probability of persistence. We based our study on a reintroduced orangutan population at Bukit Tigapuluh, Jambi, Central Sumatra, Indonesia. We used various scenarios to assess the effects of adaptation time, number of released individuals, duration of release period, variation in infant survival, and carrying capacity on population extinction probability over time. We found that behavioral adaptation of individuals to living in the wild within <6 yrs after release enhanced population persistence, and that initial losses may be compensated by additional releases. Our analyses indicated that a lack of information about released orangutans prevented accurate evaluation of the effectiveness of reintroduction procedures. Consequently, we recommend that reintroduction projects improve data quality on the fates of released individuals in order to provide a reliable basis for a population viability analysis. The use of population viability analyses would allow proactive management and a better evaluation of reintroduction progress. Keywords Overview–Design concepts–Details (ODD) . Pongo abelii . Population viability analysis . Reintroduction D. Kelle (*) : D. Fechter : I. Storch Chair of Wildlife Ecology and Management, Freiburg University, 79106 Freiburg, Germany e-mail: [email protected] A. Singer Department of Ecological Modelling, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318 Leipzig, Germany P. Pratje Frankfurt Zoological Society, Jambi, Sumatra, Indonesia D. Kelle et al. Introduction Reintroduction projects have been criticized for their lack of a priori defined goals and management plans for population viability, and for their retrospective, rather than goaloriented, approach to reviewing project success (Sarrazin and Barbault 1996; Seddon 1999; Seddon et al. 2007). Population viability analysis (PVA) can help to evaluate success and enhance management strategies. By simulating the dynamics of a released population based on varying conditions of demographic and environmental data (Meretsky et al. 2000; Reed et al. 2002; Schaub et al. 2008; Slotta-Bachmayr et al. 2004) a PVA can identify challenges that might threaten the accomplishment of the overall goal, the establishment of a viable and self-sustaining population. An a posteriori PVA, i.e., conducted after release, can include release-specific data that cannot be anticipated beforehand, such as the age, sex, survival, and reproductive rates of the released individuals (Russon 2009). Reintroducing orangutans into areas where they once occurred has been widely used to establish new populations and to provide confiscated ex-pet orangutans with a place to live. Despite the official protection status awarded by the Indonesian government in 1924 (Rijksen and Meijaard 1999), numbers of Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) have declined to an estimated 3500–7000 individuals in the wild (Wich et al. 2003). The main causes of decline are habitat loss from deforestation, habitat degradation, and illegal pet trade (Ellis et al. 2006; Rijksen and Meijaard 1999). Rehabilitation centers with the aim of releasing confiscated orangutans into the wild have existed since 1961 (Rijksen and Meijaard 1999). However, the success of reintroductions, and predictions concerning the viability status of the resulting populations, remain vague (Russon 2009; Yeager 1997), because data concerning the fate of most of the released orangutans are lacking owing to insufficient post-release monitoring (Russon 2009). Once released, an orangutan is rarely seen again. Here, we present the first PVA specifically modeled for a reintroduced population of ex-captive orangutans. The aim of our analysis was to identify those parameters that are most sensitive for the persistence of reintroduced populations of orangutans. First, we determined demographic growth rates based on pessimistic to optimistic assumptions on post-release survival and investigated effects of post-release adaptation and further releases on population persistence. Second, we assessed how infant survival affects population persistence. Third, we addressed habitat degradation by simulating population persistence under various scenarios of reduced carrying capacity. Methods Study Area and Data Origins The Bukit Tigapuluh (BT) ecosystem in Jambi, Central Sumatra, Indonesia, covers an area of roughly 3200 km2 (Pratje 2000). The core area is the Bukit Tigapuluh National Park (BTNP), which comprises an area of 1440 km2 mixed dipterocarp rain forest in the provinces of Jambi and Riau. The area is characterized by a steep mountain range in the southern part of the park. Bukit Huluh Supin is the highest Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans elevation at 843 m. Unprotected forest outside the boundaries of the national park is categorized by Indonesian authorities as production forest and thus may be transformed into plantations (Riedler et al. 2010). The BT ecosystem is inhabited by many rare and endangered species, such as Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae), Sumatran elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus), and rafflesia (Rafflesia hasseltii) (Sitompul and Pratje 2009). Wild orangutans have been extinct from Central Sumatra since the end of the 19th century (Rijksen and Meijaard 1999). In collaboration with the Sumatran Orangutan Conservation Programme (SOCP), the Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS) has released 142 ex-captive orangutans into BTNP from 2003 to 2012 (Cocks and Bullo 2008; Pratje 2000; Riedler et al. 2010; Zweifel 2009), following IUCN guidelines (Beck et al. 2007; IUCN 1998). However, the project is challenged by habitat destruction and unknown fates of released individuals. It therefore may serve as a test case for the suitability of PVA to evaluate orangutan reintroduction success. FZS provided daily activity data and medical files for 111 individuals released from 2003 to 2009. Daily activity was recorded via instantaneous sampling of one focal individual every 2 min from dawn to dusk (Geissmann 2002). The amount of daily activity data of each individual ranged from many months to just a few weeks depending on how long the individual was being followed. Records included independent food acquisition, arboreal locomotion, nest building, and supplemental feeding. Medical files reported on each individual’s pre- and post-release health history, recorded by the project’s veterinary staff. Modeling Approach Ellis et al. (2006) have presented a PVA for wild orangutan populations using Vortex. We constructed an individual-based model for PVA that loosely followed this approach, but differed from the model of Ellis et al. (2006) in three ways: 1) We used intervals of 6 yrs between births (interbirth interval [IBI]). 2) We assumed that newly released individuals need time to adapt to the wild. We therefore introduced an adaptation time into our model, defined as the period after release during which released individuals had survival rates and reproductive rates lower than reported for wild orangutans (Kuze et al. 2012; Wich et al. 2004). 3) We modeled mother–infant interdependence by assigning every infant to its mother, and excluded the mother from further reproduction for the duration of the IBI. We developed our model in Java 1.6 because the Vortex framework was not sufficiently flexible to implement these additional processes. In the following, we describe our model according to the ODD (Overview–Design concepts–Details) protocol (Grimm et al. 2006, 2010), a standard for describing individual-based models. Overview Entities, State Variables, and Scales The entities of our model were individual orangutans characterized by age, sex, mother–infant interdependencies, whether they had been released or wild born, and how much time had elapsed since their release. These factors influenced individual survival rates. The model referred to the BTNP, covering 1440 km2. D. Kelle et al. Process Overview and Scheduling Each time step of the model represented 1 yr. We simulated population dynamics for a period of 1000 yrs. Submodels were executed at each time step (Fig. 1). Design Concept Basic Principles We considered the specifics of reintroductions by including timediscrete and predefined animal release schedules, uncertainties about individual fates due to information gaps in monitoring, effects of learning and social interactions, and stochasticity. Learning Numerous studies have described the learning abilities of rehabilitant orangutans (Cocks and Bullo 2008; Grundmann 2006; Grundmann et al. 2001; Riedler et al. 2010; Russon 2009), supporting the assumption that survival skills improve with time. We assumed that newly released orangutans would show reduced survival compared to wild orangutans until they were fully adapted. Thus, a 10-yr-old recently released orangutan might have poorer chances of survival compared to a 10-yr-old orangutan released 6 yrs previously. We simulated the process of adaptation considering adaptation times of 2, 6, 10, and 20 yrs after release, during which an individual’s probability of survival was lower than that of wild orangutans as reported from Ketambe, North Sumatra (Wich et al. 2004). Social Interactions Our model took into account the semisolitary nature of orangutans, with social interactions restricted to reproduction and mother–offspring care (Delgado and van Schaik 2000; Mitra Setia et al. 2009; Rijksen 1978; Singleton and van Schaik 2001; van Noordwijk et al. 2009). Stochasticity We set the following processes as stochastic: release subsequent to 2009 (before 2009, releases followed the known schedule of the release project; Appendix A), sex of newborns, survival, mating, environmental variability, and catastrophes. Details Initialization We initialized simulations with zero orangutans. A total of 111 orangutans were released in the first 7 yrs. We based the age, sex, reproduction, and year of release on orangutans released at BTNP (Appendix A). We numbered each individual released or born chronologically in the order of their appearance. Input Data We took general life history parameters from literature on both Bornean (Pongo pygmaeus spp.) and Sumatran orangutans (Ellis et al. 2006; Grundmann 2006; Kuze et al. 2008, 2012; Riedler et al. 2010; Rijksen 1978; Russon 2009; Singleton et al. 2004, 2009; van Noordwijk et al. 2009; Wich et al. 2004), but focused on information about Sumatran orangutans whenever Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans Fig. 1 Path diagram illustrating a submodel and the modeling process for a PVA of reintroduced Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) at the Bukit Tigapuluh reintroduction project, Jambi, Sumatra. D. Kelle et al. available. A main shortcoming in previous reintroduction projects has been the large number of orangutans with unknown fates. Hence, it is difficult to calculate a specific survival rate per sex–age class and to approximate a population growth rate. We took this uncertainty into account by distinguishing five groups of individuals (a–e) according to their likely fates, as based on documented survival competencies. We used daily activity data from 2003–2009 for information on independent food acquisition and natural, arboreal behavior (arboreal locomotion and nest building) (Zweifel 2009) and we used medical records for information on body condition and medical treatment histories. Recorded data on sightings enabled us to find proof for surviving orangutans. We used the following criteria for assigning individuals to one of the five fate categories: a) Confirmed alive (observed and identified reliably in 2008): All release individuals observed and reliably identified in 2008 were classified as alive (N=45). b) Probably alive (unknown fate but data indicate all necessary survival competencies): Vanished individuals for which independent food acquisition and natural arboreal behavior (arboreal locomotion and nest building) were recorded within the last two documented months before vanishing. Further, body condition and health status at the time of last contact were documented as good and there was no history of reoccurring health issues. These orangutans were considered to have full survival competencies and classified as probably alive (N=35). c) Unknown (no post-release monitoring data available): If no post-release monitoring data were available the fate of the vanished ape was classified as unknown (N=13). d) Probably dead (unknown fates; data indicate a lack of survival competence): If the recorded daily activity included continuous supplemental feeding and no nest building competence or nests built only on the ground, the vanished ape was classified as likely to be dead. Nest building skills but no independent food acquisition as well as no nest building skills but independent food acquisition also led to the assumption of the vanished ape being dead. Health issues recorded at the last time being seen and a history of repeated illness led to the assumption of an individual being dead, even if behavioral skills appeared positive (N=11). e) Confirmed dead (corpse found and identified reliably): If the corpse was found and identified reliably the ape was classified as dead (N=7). Survival Rates and Population Growth Rates The fact that the fates of many of the released individuals remained unknown was a challenge for modeling population viability. We therefore calculated different survival rates ranging from optimistic to pessimistic based on the fate categories defined in the preceding text. We created a life-table matrix by plotting all released orangutans against age and sex. We included each individual from the year of release until 2009, from the year of release until it vanished, or from the year of release Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans until it died. The outcome was a matrix of apes surviving, dying, or vanishing at a specific age. After summarizing the age classes to life stages (Ellis P et al. 2006), we calculated four different survival rates (SR) with 1 P alive dead follows: as e SR1 ¼ 1 aþbþcþd dþe SR2 ¼ 1 aþbþc SR3 ¼ 1 cþdþe aþb SR4 ¼ 1 bþcþdþe e To calculate the deterministic population growth rate (det. r) for each set of survival rates (SR1–SR4 and SRwild, Table I), we constructed a deterministic age-class model based on a Leslie matrix. We assumed constant birth and death rates without any stochastic variation in survival and litter size. We assumed no density dependency, no limitation of mates, no catastrophes, no inbreeding, and a stable age distribution. Table I Survival rates (SR) (%) and deterministic population growth rates (det. r) (%) of reintroduced Sumatran orangutans in Bukit Tigapuluh, based on their assumed fates (SR1–4) and survival rates for wild Sumatran orangutans Sex Females Age det. r a SR2 b SR3 c SR4 d SRwilde 0–1 (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) 0.95 1–2 (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) 0.94 2–8 0.999 0.99 0.96 0.86 0.995 8–11 0.98 0.9 0.88 0.74 0.94 11–15 0.999 0.999 0.85 0.75 0.995 15+ 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.67 0.9825 4.16 % 2.8 % –0.07 % –17.44 % 1.33 % 0–1 (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) 0.95 1–2 (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) (0.999) 0.95 2–8 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.8 0.97 8–11 0.97 0.97 0.91 0.77 0.945 11–15 0.999 0.88 0.85 0.79 0.995 15+ 0.999 0.75 0.5 0.25 0.9875 4.16 % 2.75 % –17.42 % 1.32 % det. r Males SR1 –0.06 % a SR1: Orangutans confirmed alive, probably alive, unknown (no data), and probably dead all included as alive. b SR2: Orangutans confirmed alive, probably alive, unknown (no data) included as alive. c SR3: Only orangutans confirmed alive, probably alive included as alive. d SR4: Only orangutans confirmed alive included as alive. e SRwild: Modified after Ellis et al. (2006) as 1-mortality. D. Kelle et al. Submodels The following sequence describes the modeling process (Fig. 1): 1) Check for catastrophes and for logging affecting carrying capacity (K): We drew a random number between 0 and 1 for catastrophes (fire and landslides), based on probabilities of occurrence taken from Ellis et al. (2006): fires occurred with an annual probability of 0.2 % and reduced K by 10 %. Landslides occurred with an annual probability of 2.5 % and reduced K by 0.75 %. We considered logging by decreasing K by a given percentage (see Scenarios). 2) Check whether number of living orangutans ≤ K and determine K: We defined K as the maximum number of individuals able to persist in the area. Despite the fact that orangutans do not distinguish between protected and unprotected areas, we restricted the model to the protected part of the ecosystem. The unprotected forest outside of BTNP is at risk of being transformed into plantations (Riedler et al. 2010), and its persistence as orangutan habitat is not secured. Including this area into calculation of K would lead to unrealistic long-term perspectives. A viable population of orangutans (250–500 individuals) has been estimated to need 80–300 km2 of suitable habitat (Russon 2009). Thus, with 1440 km2 of protected forest, BTNP might offer habitat for at least 1000 orangutans (Russon 2009). We thus assumed K=1000 as the maximum capacity, unless reduced by logging and catastrophes (Fig. 1; see Scenarios for specifics). We modeled K using a ceiling approach, allowing us to simulate population development under optimum conditions. At K, reproduction was suppressed. We chose this approach because the Bukit Tigapuluh ecosystem is surrounded by intensively used landscapes including farms, plantations, and urban areas. The population is isolated and emigration inevitably leads to death because there is no suitable habitat in neighboring areas. 3) Check for further release: At each time step after 2009, if a scenario implied further releases, individuals were added randomly based on the age–sex distribution of the released orangutans from 2003–2009 (Appendix A). 4) Check for adaptation: If time since release is greater than or equal to adaptation time, we assigned the corresponding ape a natural survival rate (SRwild) and a natural age at first birth (AFB). 5) Determine reproductive ability: AFB is earlier in released (11.6 yrs; Kuze et al. 2008) than in wild (15.4 yrs; Wich et al. 2004) orangutans, possibly due to food provisioning (Kuze et al. 2008, 2012). We used AFB=11 yrs for reintroduced females, reflecting AFB data from the BT population (AFB=10, 10, and 14 yrs; 2003–2009). After adaptation time, we used AFB=15 yrs, as reported for wild orangutans (Ellis et al. 2006). For released male orangutans, we used 15 yrs as the age of first reproduction, based on the only released male from BT known to sire offspring. We used 25 yrs as age at first reproduction in wild males, based on data from Ketambe, North Sumatra (Ellis et al. 2006). However, age estimates for male orangutans must be treated with caution because of bimaturism among males (Russon 2009; Utami-Atmoko et al. 2009). The maximum age of reproduction remains unknown in the BTNP project. Long-term observations in Ketambe indicate 50 yrs as a maximum age at reproduction for both sexes, which has been generally accepted (Wich et al. 2004). We considered females able to reproduce if they had reached AFB and had no offspring to take care of, Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans i.e., she was primiparous, previous offspring older than 6 yrs, or offspring had died. We considered males able to reproduce if they had reached age at first reproduction. 6) Calculate reproduction: IBIs for wild Sumatran orangutans range from 6 to 9.3 yrs (Ellis et al. 2006; van Noordwijk et al. 2009; Wich et al. 2009). IBIs for reintroduced orangutans tend to be shorter (5.5–6 yrs), possibly owing to supplementary feeding (Kuze et al. 2008, 2012). We used an IBI of 6 yrs throughout the modeling process, making the simulation conservative. We calculated parturition events individually for each female, based on her reproductive status, the fate of her infant, and IBI. We excluded each female that gave birth from further reproduction until the IBI of 6 yrs had elapsed, or her infant had died. To allow consideration of mother–infant relationships, we assigned each orangutan an individual identification number and linked the mother to her offspring. If an infant died within the first 6 yrs of age the mother was able to reproduce again. Dominant flanged male orangutans have greater chances of siring offspring than other flanged and unflanged males (Utami-Atmoko et al. 2009); we therefore assumed that 50 % of all males of reproductive age could sire offspring. Because field data were lacking, we conservatively assumed that each male was able to sire no more than one young per year. Because of the polygynandrous mating system, mates were randomly assigned at every reproduction. We assigned all newborn infants the survival rate for wild-borns (0.95 %; Table I).We determined the sex of the infant by drawing random numbers between 0 and 1, with a sex ratio of 55 % male based on the finding of Ellis et al. (2006) and Kuze et al. (2008) that there are no significant differences in birth sex ratio between populations of reintroduced and wild orangutans. We set the maximum litter size to one as orangutans rarely give birth to twins, and if so, commonly only one survives (Ellis et al. 2006; Goossens et al. 2012). 7) Check for catastrophe affecting survival: We modeled disease epidemics to occur a mean of once every 50 yrs (2 % of all years), and survival probabilities during that year were reduced by 20 % (Ellis et al. 2006). 8) Determine survival probability: Based on the literature (Kuze et al. 2012; van Noordwijk et al. 2009), we assumed reduced offspring survival if the mother died while the infant was <7 yrs old (yr 1–3: 0 % survival; yr 4: survival reduced by 50 %, yr 5–6: survival reduced by 25 %). For every year, we generated a random value between 0 and 1 for environmental variation (EnvRand). We assumed that the survival probability for each age and sex class was affected equally by environmental variation (environmental stochasticity). We calculated survival probability from a truncated, cumulative, inverse normal distribution provided by Apache Software Foundation with a survival rate according to Table I as the mean, EnvRand as the probability of 1Survival ratex yz occurrence, and as the standard deviation. Index x denotes 2 survival scenarios (SR1–SR4 or SRwild), y denotes sex class (male, female), and z denotes age class. Note that the survival rate as the mean of the normal distribution could be modified due to mother–infant interdependence. Finally, for each individual, we drew a random number between 0 and 1. If the number was greater than D. Kelle et al. the calculated survival probability, the ape died; if it was less than the calculated survival probability the ape survived. 9) Check for extinction: We defined the population as extinct if only individuals of one sex remained. As long as releases continued, the population could not go extinct. Scenarios We simulated 267 scenarios based on different combinations of adaptation time, release regime, infant survival, and K. Adaptation Time We investigated the impact of the time to full adaptation on population persistence by simulating 2, 6, 10, and 20 yrs until survival rates equaled those of wild orangutans (natural survival rate). We based a further scenario on the assumption that released individuals would never achieve a natural survival rate. Release Regime Most orangutans at BTNP were released between the ages of 4 and 10 yrs resulting in an age bias toward juveniles, adolescents, and subadults (Rijksen 1978). Based on animals released between 2003 and 2009 (Appendix A), we calculated a weighted age–sex distribution and generated the age and sex of future released individuals randomly from this distribution. To simulate the impact of various release regimes on population persistence we simulated all possible combinations of the number of orangutans released annually and the number of consecutive years in which orangutans are released from 5×5 to 20×20 in steps of 5 each (Appendix B). We used 20 annually released individuals each year for 20 yrs as a maximum because this figure was well within the release capacities of the Bukit Tigapuluh project. Infant Survival Reintroduction projects in general do not release orangutan infants <3 yrs of age (Russon 2009). However, in rare cases, an orangutan mother is released with a dependent offspring. Therefore, we included calculations of infant survival rates for released infants for age classes 0–3 yrs in our model. For those infants born in the wild we used figures adopted from Kuze et al. (2012) to simulate poor mothering skills in released orangutans. We used the inverse of infant mortality rate to match our definition of survival rate. Infant mortality rates reported by Kuze et al. (2012) include a variety of figures based on other reintroduction projects as well as from zoos and studies on wild orangutans (Table III). Our use of high infant mortality rates made our simulations rather conservative. Carrying Capacity (K) We assumed that K was constant in all simulations, and modeled scenarios of K=1000, 750, 500, and 250 orangutans. We determined the minimum K necessary to enable population persistence by interpolating results across scenarios. We simulated habitat loss by reducing the initial K. We used a negative initial growth rate (SR3 see Table I) and adaptation after 6 yrs. Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans Sensitivity Analysis In step 1, we changed one parameter at a time and compared the scenarios to investigate the influence of each parameter on persistence. In step 2, we combined two parameters to investigate the effect on population establishment and population persistence, and to detect favorable combinations of parameters. To depict population establishment and population persistence we used scenarios based on intermediate sets of survival rates, i.e., those closest to±0 % population growth rate: SR2 and SR3; Table I) as they seemed most realistic. We assessed population viability as the cumulative probability of extinction by a given time (P0(t); Grimm and Wissel 2004). We calculated P0(t) at 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 yrs to assess population establishment and persistence. Following Shaffer (1981), we defined a population as persistent if the risk of extinction over 1000 yrs was ≤5 %. Results Survival Rates and Population Growth Rates The deterministic growth rates for the reintroduced population varied from – 17.44 % to +4.16 %, depending on assumed fates of released orangutans. The deterministic growth rate was positive in only two (SR1 and SR2) of the four survival rate sets (Table I). Scenarios based on the intermediate survival rate sets SR2 and SR3 were more sensitive to changes in parameters than were the extremely optimistic (SR1) or pessimistic (SR4) ones (Table I). Figure 2A illustrates the effect of different deterministic growth rates resulting from assumptions on orangutan fates on population development, modeled without adaptation and without further releases. Survival rates SR1 and SR2 and the natural survival rate of wild orangutans represent a very stable population with low risk of extinction (Fig. 2A). Effects of Further Releases To assess the effects of further releases on population development, we used the intermediate, yet slightly negative, survival rate SR3 (Table I; compare Fig. 2A) and assumed no adaptation of released apes. Our model implied a high risk of extinction regardless of the release regime (Fig. 2B). Not even the most intense release regime prevented extinction, because the deterministic growth rate remained negative. However, the more intense the release regime, the longer the population survived. Effects of Post-release Adaptation In a population with a negative growth rate (SR3) but with an adaptation time set as the natural survival rate (SRwild) extinction risk decreased to 8–28 % within 1000 yrs, depending on adaptation time (Fig. 2C). The longer adaptation D. Kelle et al. A B Survival 1.0 Release 1.0 SR1 no release 20 × 5 5 × 20 20 × 20 SR2 SR3 0.8 0.8 SR4 0.6 0.6 P0(t) P0(t) SRwild 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 C Adaptation 0.30 20 years 10 years 6 years 2 years 0.25 0.20 0.30 Adaptation+Release 6 years + no release 6 years + 20 × 5 6 years + 5 × 20 6 years + 20 × 20 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0 D P0(t) P0(t) 0.4 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0.00 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Time to extinction t [ yrs] Time to extinction t [ yrs] Fig. 2 Cumulative probability of extinction by time t, P0(t) of a reintroduced population of Sumatran orangutans (Pongo ablii) in Jambi, Sumatra. (A) Populations based on different survival rates (SR 1, 2, 3, 4, wild), no further releases after 2009 and no adaptation. (B) populations based on SR3, different release regimes and no adaptation. (C) Populations based on SR3, no further release and with adaptation after 2, 6, 10, and 20 yrs. (D) Populations based on SR3 with adaptation after 6 yrs and releases. Releases are number of annually releases×number of consecutive years of releases. time, the greater was the risk of extinction. However, the threshold of P0(1000)<1 % was not met for any of the adaptation time scenarios without further releases (Appendix C; see Fig. 2D). Combined Effects of Adaptation and Release Regime Scenarios that combined assumptions of post-release adaptation with further releases greatly improved the population’s performance (Fig. 2D). Of the 16 release regime scenarios possible (5–20 orangutans released annually and 5–20 consecutive years with adaptation after 6 yrs), 13 suggested long-term viability with P0(1000)≤5 % (Appendix B, bold). However, even the most optimistic scenarios of adaptation and release regime did not ensure a population persistence of P0(1000)<1 %. Many scenarios without adaptation shown in Fig. 2B became extinct initially but reached the threshold of P0(1000)≤5 % when adaptation and future releases were added to the simulation (Fig. 2D). Only three scenarios with only a few additional releases (<50 orangutans) did not achieve population persistence with P0(1000)≤5 % (Table IIa). We therefore simulated these three scenarios (5 × 5, 5 × 10, 10 × 5) Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans Table II Cumulative probability of extinction (%) at time steps 50–1000 for reintroduced Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) at Bukit Tigapuluh, Jambi, Sumatra with a scenario based on SR3 with adaptation after a) 6 and b) 2 yrs, K=1000 and further releases Cumulative probability of extinction at time t (P0(t)) (%) 5×5a 5×10a 10×5a 50 0 0 0 100 0.1 0 0 200 1 0.3 0.4 500 5 3 4 1000 8 6 6 50 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 200 0.3 0.1 0.1 500 2 2 2 1000 5 3 3 a) 6 yrs t (yr) b) 2 yrs t (yr) a Number of annual releases × number of consecutive years of releases. assuming adaptation after 2 yrs to assess the effect of a shorter adaptation period. This reduced P0(1000) by almost 50 % (Table IIb). Population establishment (P0(50)=0 %, P0(100)=0 %) was achieved in all release regimes if the apes achieved a natural survival rate and thus a positive population growth rate within any of the tested timeframes (2–20 yrs). Effects of Infant Survival When we assumed that lower maternal skills led to lower infant survival, we found that population persistence was not achieved in any scenario, based neither on an initially positive survival rate (SR2) nor on an initially negative survival rate (SR3) (Table III). Even populations with an infant survival rate of at least 88 % showed a high probability of extinction (Fig. 3). Low infant survival rates consistently led to negative deterministic population growth rates (Table IIIc) and eventually to extinction. The two scenarios showed only minor differences in probability of extinction (Table IIIa, b). Changes in Carrying Capacity and Population Viability Four scenarios with adaptation after 6 yrs and further releases based on SR3 reached persistence with P0(1000)≤1 % (Appendix B); in all, release regimes were intensive with 200–400 further individuals. Those populations remained persistent while decreasing K to a minimum of 750–500 (Table IV). Below the threshold of K=500–750 individuals no simulation reached population persistence with P0(1000)≤1 %. D. Kelle et al. Fig. 3 Effect of variation in infant survival on the cumulative probability of extinction (%) at time t (P0(t)). Simulations are based on a population of reintroduced Sumatran orangutans (Pongo abelii) at the Bukit Tigapuluh reintroduction project, Jambi, Sumatra with a negative initial growth rate (SR3) and 6 yrs until adaptation. Discussion Although some parameters like genetic factors could not be analyzed in this PVA, the results have clearly pointed out that reintroduction specific parameters such as adaptation after release, release intensity and fates of the released orangutans need to be considered carefully when establishing a new population of reintroduced orangutans. Our simulations indicated great variation in the risk of extinction depending on the assumptions we made about the fates of released orangutans. Despite the long duration of the BT project, the available data were insufficient to enable reliable predictions of population growth rates. The fates of released individuals need to be identified to reduce uncertainty of PVA results. We interpret our findings based on the assumption that intermediate scenarios are most realistic and survival rates SR2 and SR3 represent an optimistic and pessimistic view of the BT population, respectively, implying that population survival would be possible only if some of the unmonitored or less competent orangutans survive. Population establishment and population persistence were influenced by two parameters: adaptation time and the specifics of the release regime. Our results indicated that adaptation time has a larger influence on population persistence than release regimes. Although our results indicated that further releases had only a temporary effect on population development, further releases decreased extinction risk along with adaptation time. The time schedule of release was less important. For example, there were only minor differences in population development if 20 individuals were released annually for 5 consecutive years or if 5 individuals were released annually for 20 consecutive years. Thus, the total number of released individuals and each individual’s survival appeared to be more important than the number of release years. This might be explained by the fact that further releases contribute to the overall population size and substitute for mortalities. With slower adaptation of >6 yrs, further releases do have an effect on extinction risk, suggesting that intense release regimes can decrease the risk of extinction temporarily. Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans Table III Effects of variation of orangutan infant survival rate for ages 0–3 yrs of wild-born offspring on extinction probability (P0(t)) under a) SR2 and b) SR3 Infant survival (%) a) SR2 b) SR3 P0(t) % t=50 t=100 P0(t)= 100 % P0(t) % t t=50 c) New det. r wild P0(t)= 100 % t=100 t 39a 2,5 99 137 6 97 142 –9.33 61b <1 41 274 <1 25 237 –4.64 371c <1 11 357 <1 4 370 –2.85 79d <1 3 819 <1 0.5 697 –1.51 82e 0 2 895 <1 0.5 814 –1.02 88f 0 1 — <1 0.08 — –0.36 The simulation used K=1000 and adaptation after 6 yrs and no further release. The new deterministic growth rate as a consequence of the variation in infant survival rate is presented in c). Infant survival figures from Kuze et al. 2012. a Bukit Lawang, rehabilitant, Dellatore et al. (in prep.). b Rehabilitant overall, Kuze et al. 2012. c Kaja Island, rehabilitant, Russon (unpublished). d Camp Leaky, rehabilitant, Banes and Russon (unpublished). e Zoo overall. f Wild overall. Thus, further releases can help prevent extinction during the period before adaptation is achieved (Fig. 2A, D). Every released orangutan potentially contributed to reproduction once it matured. Once released orangutans adapted behaviorally so they achieved survived rates equivalent to those reported for their wild-born relatives (Ellis et al. 2006), they appeared to establish viable populations. To lower the risk of extinction, it is highly advisable to ensure fast adaptation to the wild by developing the survival skills of ex-captive orangutans, i.e., climbing, nest building, and food finding skills (Russon 2002). This information is valuable, as management decisions can now take into account parameters that enhance population persistence. Table IV Minimum K for which the probability of extinction ≤1 % within the next 1000 yrs with adaptation after 6 yrs and SR3 with different release scenarios Release×yearsa Minimum K with P0(1000)≤1 % 10×20 700–750 15×20 550–600 20×15 500–550 20×20 500–550 a Number of annual releases × number of consecutive years of releases. D. Kelle et al. The simulations in this PVA suggested that infant survival rates reported by other orangutan reintroduction projects (Ellis et al. 2006; Kuze et al. 2012) are too low to support viable populations. Infact, Ellis et al. (2006) stated that at Bukit Lawang, infants of ex-captive orangutans rarely live longer than 5 yrs. The large variability in reported infant survival ranging from 39 % to 88 % may be due to insufficient skills of released females and diseases, which may or may not be affected by project management practices, but may also result from small sample sizes. Our results indicate that enhancing infant survival is imperative for successful orangutan reintroduction. Project managers should consider post-release care to compensate for poor mothering skills (Seddon 1999), yet avoid risks involved (Kuze et al. 2008; Muehlenbein et al. 2010). Suitable habitat such as dipterocarp lowland forest is decreasing rapidly in Sumatra. The simulation of habitat loss by decreasing carrying capacity showed that reintroduction projects should provide habitat for at least 500–750 orangutans if the population shall persist. Considering the increasing extinction probabilities for small isolated orangutan populations (Bruford et al. 2010) and effects of habitat destruction on carrying capacity and high densities of orangutans, i.e., “compression effect” (Marshall et al. 2009), in areas close to logging operations (Marshall et al. 2006), our results underline the necessity of focusing conservation actions on the protection of remaining habitat. Conclusions Post-release PVAs are a necessary tool to evaluate project success. Better documentation of survival and reproductive success of released individuals is needed to reduce uncertainty in population viability assessments. Released individuals must adapt to living in the wild, i.e., showing behaviors and demographic performance comparable to those of wild conspecifics in order to establish a viable self-sustaining population. Further releases can support population establishment by adding to the number of reproductive individuals. Releasing many apes within a short period of time or releasing few apes over a long period of time did not substantially influence viability in this simulation study. Behavioral adaptation progress, mothering skills, and infant survival in released orangutans, including the second generation, should be documented consistently (Sarrazin and Barbault 1996). Documenting age class–specific survival rates would allow management actions to focus on critical aspects such as infant mortality. We strongly recommend intensifying postrelease observation efforts by radio-tagging individuals and checking them more regularly after release to assess reproductive status and offspring survival. Regular assessments of population viability via PVA are recommended to adjust the need for potential interventions and keep them to an effective minimum. Acknowledgments We thank the Indonesian State Ministry of Research and Technology (RISTEK), the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), the Indonesian State Ministry of Forestry (PHKA), and the Frankfurt Zoological Society (FZS) for making this research possible; Elizabeth Riemer and John Bissonette for proofreading; and Robert Mattmueller for assistance in Python Programming. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. We thank Felix Knauer for support in the initial model setup and the fnet-team of the faculty of environment and natural resources, University of Freiburg, for providing computing capacities. This project was supported by scholarships from the Rosa-Luxemburg Foundation (to D. Kelle) and the Evangelisches Studienwerk Villigst e.V. (to D. Fechter). DK expresses her sincere thanks to the employees of the FZS for their help and support in the field and in Jambi. Viability of Reintroduced Sumatran Orangutans Appendix A Table V Number of orangutans released at Bukit Tigapuluh National Park from 2003 to 2009 per year/age class, sex class Sex/age at release Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F0 1 F1 F2 1 F3 1 1 1 F4 1 1 1 F5 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 F6 2 F7 F8 F9 2 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 F10 1 F11 F12 1 F13 F14 1 1 1 1 M0 1 1 1 M1 M2 M3 M4 1 M5 1 M6 1 3 4 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 M7 M8 2 M9 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 M10 1 M11 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 M12 1 M13 M14 1 M15 1 2 1 1 M16 M17 M18 Sum 1 11 24 19 23 11 10 13 D. Kelle et al. Appendix B Table VI Cumulative probability of extinction (%) after 1000 yrs (P0(1000)) for scenario SR3 with adaptation after 6, 10, and 20 yrs, K=1000 and further releases a Number of annual releases × number of consecutive years of releases. Releasea Adaptation (%) 6 10 20 20×20 0.4 0.5 0.6 15×20 0.6 0.8 0.9 20×15 0.8 0.9 1 10×20 0.8 1.7 1.8 15×15 1 1.5 1.7 20×10 1.2 1.8 2 15×10 1.5 2.7 3.1 10×15 1.7 2.5 2.6 5×20 2.5 4.1 4.5 20×5 2.8 4.9 7 10×10 3.1 4.7 5 15×5 3.9 5.7 8.8 5×15 4.1 5.6 6.6 Appendix C Table VII Adaptation, no release: Cumulative probability of extinction (%) at time steps 50– 1000 for scenario SR3 with adaptation after 2, 6, 10, and 20 yrs, K= 1000 and no further releases t (yr) Adaptation 2 6 10 20 50 0 0 0 1 100 0.03 0.2 0.5 3 200 0.4 2 5 10 500 4 8 15 23 1000 8 13 21 28 References Beck, B., Walkup, K., Rodrigues, M., Unwin, S., Travis, D., & Stoinski, T. (2007). Best practice guidelines for the re-introduction of Great Apes. 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