American Journal of Epidemiology ª The Author 2007. Published by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. Vol. 166, No. 4 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwm104 Advance Access publication June 8, 2007 Original Contribution Work-related Factors Associated with Age at Natural Menopause in a Generation of French Gainfully Employed Women B. Cassou1, L. Mandereau2, P. Aegerter3, A. Touranchet4, and F. Derriennic5 1 Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Hôpital Sainte Périne, Paris, France. INSERM U 170, Villejuif, France. 3 Département d’Information Hospitalière et de Santé Publique, Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Hôpital Ambroise Paré, Boulogne, France. 4 Inspection Médicale Régionale du Travail des Pays de Loire, Nantes, France. 5 INSERM U 88, Saint Maurice, France. 2 Received for publication August 10, 2005; accepted for publication March 2, 2007. This study’s purpose was to identify occupational factors that may influence the age at natural menopause in a random sample of gainfully employed French women born in 1938 (n ¼ 1,594). Occupational physicians selected the subjects from their files and interviewed them during their annual visits in 1990 and 1995. The authors used Kaplan-Meier survival curves to estimate median age at menopause (52 years) and multiple Cox models to estimate associations among women’s characteristics, occupational factors, and age at menopause separately within two strata distinguished by a self-reported history of depression. Among women without such a history, earlier menopause was associated with smoking more than 10 cigarettes per day in 1990 (p < 0.001), a high-strain job (p ¼ 0.01) in 1990, and difficult schedules before 1990 (p ¼ 0.03). Later menopause was associated with higher educational status (p ¼ 0.003) and repetitive work in 1990 (p ¼ 0.005). Among women with a history of depression, a later menopause was associated with having at least one child (p < 0.001) and menarche later than the age of 13 years (p ¼ 0.004). Earlier menopause was associated with a high job control in 1990 (p ¼ 0.03) and high school education (p < 0.01). These results suggest that certain physical job stressors may be related to age at menopause. aging; depression; education; France; menopause; occupations; smoking; women Abbreviation: ESTEV, study on health, work, and aging. The average age at menopause in populations in North America and Europe ranges from 48 to 52 years (1). Some authors suggest that age at natural menopause may be a marker of health and aging (2, 3), and a better understanding of the determinants of its onset may therefore have important clinical and epidemiologic implications (4). Behavioral, reproductive, social, and demographic factors (5, 6) are known to be related to age at menopause, probably intertwined with genetic influences (7, 8). Smoking has consistently been found to be related to this age (9–12), with natural menopause occurring earlier among women who smoked compared with those who never did. Other factors observed with varying degrees of consistency to be associated with earlier natural menopause include menstrual cycles of less than 26 days (13, 14), nulliparity (9, 10, 12– 15), and obesity (10, 12, 15). Similarly, a self-reported history of medically treated depression is more frequent among women with early natural menopause than among those with average or late menopause (16). On the other hand, early menarche (17), oral contraceptive use (17, 18), and Correspondence to Dr. Bernard Cassou, Laboratoire Santé-Vieillissement, Hôpital Sainte Périne, 49 rue Mirabeau, 75016 Paris, France (e-mail: [email protected]). 429 Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 430 Cassou et al. marriage (15, 18, 19) are associated with later onset. Relatively few surveys (20) have examined other factors (e.g., alcohol use, exercise, and diet). The magnitude of the effects of most of these factors on age at menopause is in the range of 1–2 years. Prenatal factors, such as exposure in utero to diethylstilbestrol, may also influence age at menopause (21). Although higher socioeconomic class appears to be a relatively strong predictor of later menopause (9, 15, 22–24), the respective roles in this relation of such factors as ethnicity, education, place of residence, marital status, income, occupation, and working conditions remain unclear. At the same time, scientific evidence (25, 26) is accumulating about the detrimental effects of workplace activities and exposures (such as intense physical activity and exposure to toxic products) on reproductive health (fertility disorders, adverse pregnancy outcome, and irregular menstrual cycles). Two studies (27, 28) suggest that higher body burdens of organochlorides may be associated with earlier menopause, but little is known about the effect of other working conditions on the timing of ovarian senescence. To further our understanding of the subject, we used data from the French longitudinal study on health, work, and aging (ESTEV; enquête santé, travail, et vieillissement) that included a large representative sample of workers from various occupations to examine the determinants of age at natural menopause and especially the relation of work-related factors other than toxic exposures with age at menopause. MATERIALS AND METHODS Study population Data for this analysis come from the French ESTEV study, a prospective longitudinal epidemiologic investigation designed to identify occupational factors that might modify the development of a variety of health characteristics. The population and methods of this study have previously been described in detail (29). The sample population was randomly selected from exhaustive lists of workers in the private sector who saw occupational physicians for legally required annual examinations. These physicians were recruited through regional associations that covered seven socioeconomically contrasting regions of France (Bretagne, Dauphiné, Ile de France, Nord, Pays de Loire, Val de Loire, and Ile de la Reunion). In all, 387 physicians (approximately 60 percent of those initially approached) volunteered to participate. The ESTEV study focused on four specific cohorts, representing four different generations born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953. Each physician classified and filed patients’ records according to sex and year of birth. From each of these eight files, they used a specific sampling coefficient to randomly select an equal number of participants of each age for the sample. We used available national data to define these eight sampling coefficients. The ESTEV survey took place in two waves, in 1990 and 1995, during annual occupational medical examinations. In 1990, 21,378 participants who volunteered for the first phase took part, including 8,932 women born in 1938, 1943, 1948, and 1953. Only women born in 1938 were eligible for this analysis, however, because most of them had experienced either natural or artificial menopause by 1995. This birth cohort contributed 2,089 women to the study in 1990. The rate of participation (87 percent) did not vary between regions by more than one percentage point. In 1995, 1,778 of these women were seen again, for a follow-up rate of 85 percent. Women born or living on the island of La Reunion (n ¼ 110) were excluded from the analysis because their lifestyle and reproductive history differed so greatly from those of women living in metropolitan France. Menopausal status was unknown for 15 women, and date of menopause was unknown for 59. After all exclusions, the analysis included 1,594 women who had experienced menopause. Data collection and measures Data on occupational history and working conditions came from the participants with additional verification by the occupational physician in 1990 and 1995. We assessed working conditions with a 30-item questionnaire, derived from previous ergonomic and epidemiologic studies in France (30). We verified the intelligibility of the questions by a validation study of approximately 200 workers. There were three possible responses for each question: exposed at work at the time of the first interview (in 1990), not exposed in 1990 but exposed in the past, never exposed. For those who reported exposure in 1990, the occupational physician checked the consistency between each worker’s self-reports and the workplace information in the medical files. Women were considered exposed to physical constraints at work if they reported at least one of the following difficulties: carrying heavy loads, exposure to vibrations, and exertion required to operate tools or machines. They were considered to be exposed to certain physical stressors (standing work, high noise, which was defined as the impossibility of hearing someone at 2 m, work for 48 hours/ week or more, and shift work) if they answered the following question positively for each physical stressor: ‘‘During your job, have you been exposed to this stressor?’’ Performance of repetitive work under time constraints was assessed by the question: ‘‘Have you been exposed to repetitive work under time constraints?’’ They were considered exposed to difficult schedules if they reported at least one of the following difficulties: getting up early or night work. Duration of exposure to these working conditions was classified as never exposed, exposed for less than 10 years, and exposed for 10 or more years. Job-related psychological stress, characterized in terms of job control and job demand, was assessed with an abbreviated version of the instrument developed by Karasek (31). Women were considered to have low job control if they reported at least one of the following factors in 1990: lack of means (material, information, or time) to perform highquality work, lack of opportunity to choose how the work should be carried out, no diversification of work, or no opportunity to learn new things at work. Job demand was considered high when they reported at least one of the following factors in 1990: need to rush, need to do several things at the same time, or frequent interruptions while working. We used job control and job demand to construct Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 Work-related Factors and Age at Natural Menopause a four-category job strain indicator based on Karasek’s model: 1) high strain, when job demand was high and job control low; 2) low strain, when job demand was low and job control high; 3) passive, when both were low; and 4) active, when both were high. Socioeconomic category was defined by classifying occupation in 1990 into one of the four basic INSEE (Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques) categories: 1) white-collar workers, that is, senior and junior managers and technical workers; 2) clerks, that is, clerical and sales personnel; 3) blue-collar workers, that is, foremen, skilled and unskilled workers, and service workers; and 4) other occupations. Educational level was classified in three levels: less than 7 years of education (primary), between 7 and 11 years (high school), and more than 11 years of education (at least some university). Marital status in 1990 was defined as married, single, widowed, or divorced. Unmarried women cohabiting with someone (n ¼ 42) were classified with married participants. Physicians asked about smoking habits and recorded the age at which participants began smoking, how long they had smoked, and how much (number of cigarettes per day). Height and weight, measured by the occupational physician, were used to calculate body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)2). We chose to divide the sample into three tertiles of equal size: low (22.5), intermediate (22.6–25.8), or high (25.9) body mass index groups because conventional analysis would have resulted in a very limited number of women with a body mass index of 19 or less. The French version of the Nottingham Health Profile was used to evaluate self-perceived health status and especially emotional reactions (32). The physician recorded past and present health problems during the clinical examination in 1990 and 1995. During the face-to-face interview in 1990, the physician also asked whether participants ‘‘had ever been diagnosed with depression’’ and ‘‘at what age was depression first diagnosed?’’ Data about reproductive history variables (measured in years) were collected at the clinical examination: age at first menstruation and at first and last childbirth, number of livebirths, use of contraceptive pills (yes or no, age at first use, age at last use, and duration of use), and use of hormone replacement therapy. Women were asked to report their age, in years, at their last menstrual period. They were also asked whether the occurrence of their menopause was natural and, if not, the circumstances under which it had occurred. A woman was considered to be naturally postmenopausal when, at the time of the clinical examination in either 1990 or 1995, at least 12 consecutive months had passed without menstruation not due to surgery or medical causes (medication, radiotherapy), but age at natural menopause was defined as age at cessation of menses (n ¼ 1,163). For the 48 women who had not yet experienced menopause in 1995 (28 perimenopausal and 20 still menstruating regularly), age at menopause was censored at the year of the second interview (1995). The natural menopause group included 53 women who began hormone replacement therapy during the perimenopausal period and for whom age at menopause could therefore not be accurately determined. They were censored at the date of the beginning of the treatment. Women whose menopause was medically inAm J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 431 duced (n ¼ 122) were censored at the year of artificial menopause, and women whose menopause was induced by hysterectomy and/or oophorectomy (n ¼ 261) were censored at the date of surgery. Statistical analysis Several analyses were performed to examine age at natural menopause. Social, demographic, reproductive, and occupational factors were analyzed as qualitative predictor variables. A composite index based on smoking status and number of cigarettes/year was calculated for smoking exposure. Another composite index assessed oral contraceptive use, based on duration and starting age. Bivariate relations between variables and menopause were described by Kaplan-Meier curves. They were assessed by the log-rank test and the likelihood ratio test of a univariate Cox model. The proportional hazard hypothesis was verified by a graphic method. Because we observed a strong interaction between self-reported history of depression and job strain on time to natural menopause (p < 0.004), we categorized women according to whether they reported a history of depression before performing separate multivariate modeling. All variables associated with the risk function of menopause with a p value of less than 0.2 were then introduced as candidates in a multiple proportional hazards model. Variables were recoded as binary when it was possible to do so without loss of information. Starting with a full model with all candidates, we performed a descending stepwise procedure based on the likelihood ratio test and the Akaike Information Criterion to remove uninformative variables. Some variables were very strongly correlated, such as marital status and parity or smoking habits and use of oral contraceptives. Nevertheless, including these variables in multiple analyses did not produce collinearity errors, such as high estimator variance. Finally, we tested for interactions between the remaining covariates. The simplest adequate coding of the relation between the covariate and the response was chosen after exploration of trends with both continuous and ordered categorical covariates. Since the stratum with history of depression was relatively empty, we verified the stability of predictors by a resampling procedure involving 200 bootstrap samples. Statistical analyses were performed with the R software package (http://www.R-project.org/), with the final significance level set at 5 percent. RESULTS The estimated median age at menopause for the entire sample was 52 years. The mean age at menopause was 51.0 years for naturally postmenopausal women. A total of 83.2 percent of naturally postmenopausal women (n ¼ 1,007) reported menopause between 45 and 55 years of age, 7.5 percent (n ¼ 91) before 45 years, and 9.3 percent (n ¼ 113) after 55 years. Table 1 shows the relations between the social and health variables and median age at menopause. Earlier menopause was associated with smoking (for current smokers, smoking at least 10 cigarettes/day) (p < 0.001) and self-reported 432 Cassou et al. TABLE 1. Median age (years) at menopause according to social, demographic, and medical variables in a cohort of 1,594 gainfully employed French women born in 1938 Variables No. of women % of total sample Median age (years)* Log-rank p value 16.1 51 0.30 Social category Executives 257 Clerks 830 52.1 51 Blue-collar workers 463 29.0 52 44 2.8 51 Other Marital status Married 1,125 70.6 52 Single 130 8.2 52 Widowed 169 10.6 50 Divorced 169 10.6 51 Missing data 0.16 1 Education Primary 837 52.5 51 High school 507 31.8 52 University 230 14.4 51 20 1.3 1,278 80.2 52 81 5.1 52 Missing data 0.04 Smoking status in 1990 and intensity Never smoked Former smokery and 10 cigarettes/day Former smoker and >10 cigarettes/day 82 5.1 52 Current smoker and 10 cigarettes/day 70 4.4 52 Current smoker and >10 cigarettes/day 77 4.8 50 6 0.4 Missing data <0.001 Body mass index (kg/m2) in 1990 22.5 477 29.9 51 22.6–25.8 570 35.8 52 25.9 543 34.1 52 4 0.2 Missing data 0.07 Depression Never In 1990 or before 1,355 85.0 52 239 15.0 50 <0.001 * Menopause-free survival curve. y Participant had stopped smoking at least 1 month before the interview in 1990. history of depression (p < 0.001). For body mass index, median age at menopause was lower for the leanest women; this difference was nearly statistically significant (p ¼ 0.07). Women with a high school education had the highest median age at menopause (p ¼ 0.04). A history of depression was more frequent among women who reported exposure to high job strain (p < 0.04) and repetitive work (p < 0.004) (data not shown) in 1990. No association was observed with social category or marital status. Table 2 summarizes the relations between reproductive variables and median age at menopause. Earlier menopause was associated with oral contraceptive use for less than 10 years (p ¼ 0.05). Women who had never had a child reached menopause earlier, and this difference was nearly statisti- cally significant (p ¼ 0.06). No association was observed with age at menarche or at first or last birth. Table 3 reports the relations between occupational factors and median age at menopause among women without a history of depression. Median age at menopause was higher among women who reported repetitive work in 1990 than among those who did not (p ¼ 0.04). Although the difference was not statistically significant, it is interesting that the median age at menopause was lowest for women who reported high-strain jobs in 1990 and highest for those who reported active jobs (p ¼ 0.11). We observed no association with the other physical work stressors. Table 4 shows the relations between occupational factors and the hazard ratio of menopause among women with Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 Work-related Factors and Age at Natural Menopause 433 TABLE 2. Median age (years) at menopause according to reproductive history in a cohort of 1,594 gainfully employed French women born in 1938 Variables No. of women % of total sample Median age (years)* Log-rank p value 0.55 Age at menarche (years) 11 188 11.8 51 12 349 21.9 52 13 343 21.5 52 14 381 23.9 51 15 318 19.9 52 15 1.0 No child 209 13.1 51 22 506 31.7 52 23–25 464 29.1 52 26 402 25.3 52 13 0.8 No child 209 13.1 51 27 513 32.2 52 28–31 435 27.3 52 32 424 26.6 52 13 0.8 Missing data Age at first birth (years) Missing data 0.14 Age at last birth (years) Missing data 0.22 Parity 0 209 13.1 51 1 1,376 86.3 52 9 0.6 Missing data 0.06 Oral contraceptive use Never 1,050 65.9 52 10 years and age at first use 30 years 153 9.6 51 10 years and age at first use >30 years 247 15.5 51 >10 years and age at first use 30 years 65 4.1 52 >10 years and age at first use >30 years 61 3.8 52 Missing data 18 1.1 0.05 * Menopause-free survival curve. a history of depression. Later menopause was associated with job strain (p ¼ 0.03) and was highest for those with passive jobs in 1990. Median age was higher for women who were exposed in 1990 to shift work (p ¼ 0.08) or repetitive work (p ¼ 0.09) than for women not so exposed. Age at menopause was lower for women who were exposed to 48 hours/week or more of work in 1990 than for the other women (p ¼ 0.07), but the former group was rather small. We found no associations with physical work constraints, standing work, noise, or difficult schedules. Among the women with no history of depression (table 5), the multivariate Cox final model showed that earlier menopause was significantly and independently associated with smoking more than 10 cigarettes per day in 1990 (p < 0.001), high-strain jobs in 1990 (vs. no such job in 1990, p ¼ 0.01), and difficult schedules before 1990 (vs. in 1990 or Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 never, p ¼ 0.03). Later menopause was associated with high school educational level (p ¼ 0.003) and repetitive work in 1990 (vs. before 1990 or never, p ¼ 0.005). For women with a history of depression (table 6), later menopause was significantly and independently associated with parity (p < 0.001) and age at menarche of 13 or more years (p ¼ 0.004), and earlier menopause was associated with high school educational level (p < 0.01) and job control (p ¼ 0.03). No significant interaction between variables was observed in either stratum. DISCUSSION This study corroborates the findings of previous studies (11, 16, 24) that suggest that educational level, smoking, and 434 Cassou et al. TABLE 3. Median age (years) at menopause and unadjusted relative risk according to occupational exposures among French women without self-reported history of depression who were born in 1938 Variables No. of women (n ¼ 1,355) % of total sample Median age (years)* 57.9 52 Hazard ratio (Cox model) Likelihood ratio test p value Physical work constraintsy Never exposed 785 1 0.50 Exposed before 1990 289 21.3 52 0.96 Exposed in 1990 281 20.8 52 1.08 540 39.9 52 1 Standing work Never exposed 0.71 Exposed before 1990 209 15.4 52 1.02 Exposed in 1990 606 44.7 52 1.05 1,080 79.7 52 1 High noise Never exposed 0.56 Exposed before 1990 135 10.0 52 1.02 Exposed in 1990 140 10.3 52 0.90 Never exposed 789 58.2 52 1 Exposed before 1990 513 37.9 52 1.04 53 3.9 52 1.20 Work 48 hours/week Exposed in 1990 0.42 Difficult schedules Never exposed 1,013 74.8 52 1 Exposed before 1990 210 15.5 51 1.16 0.18 Exposed in 1990 132 9.7 52 0.95 Shift work Never exposed 1,071 79.0 52 1 Exposed before 1990 143 10.6 51 1.10 0.22 Exposed in 1990 141 10.4 52 0.87 Repetitive work Never exposed 1,029 75.9 52 1 Exposed before 1990 194 14.3 52 1.08 0.04 Exposed in 1990 132 9.8 53 0.79 Job strain in 1990 High strain 119 8.8 51 1 Passive 265 19.6 52 0.79 0.11 Active 622 45.9 52 0.77 Low strain 349 25.7 52 0.81 * Menopause-free survival curve. y Exposed to carrying heavy loads or vibrations or work exertion required to operate tools or machines. self-reported history of depression are associated with age at menopause. Among women with no history of depression, our results suggest a relation between high job strain, difficult schedules, and repetitive work under time constraints on the one hand and age at menopause on the other. Among women with a history of depression, however, our results suggest a relation with job control. We hypothesized that adverse working conditions and especially high-strain jobs may lead to earlier menopause. Exposure to physical and mental job stress has several known physiologic consequences (33–35). Fenster et al. (33) found that the risk of short cycles (24 days) more than doubled among women in stressful jobs compared with women without stressful jobs. As noted above, Wheelan et al. (13) reported that women with shorter cycles (<26 days) are likely to be younger at menopause. According to Bromberger et al. (14), psychosocial stress is predictive of earlier age at menopause among African-American women and among those with irregular cycles at baseline. Highstrain jobs (combination of high work demands and low job control) may affect the autonomic nervous system, neuroendocrine activity, and therefore reproductive function. High job control can moderate the stress caused by the high demands in active jobs. We hypothesized that passive and Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 Work-related Factors and Age at Natural Menopause 435 TABLE 4. Median age (years) at menopause and unadjusted relative risk according to occupational exposures among French women with self-reported history of depression who were born in 1938 No. of women (n ¼ 239) % of total sample Median age (years)* 118 49.4 50 1 Exposed before 1990 55 23.0 50 0.76 Exposed in 1990 66 27.6 50 1.04 68 28.5 50 1 Variables Hazard ratio (Cox model) Likelihood ratio test p value Physical work constraintsy Never exposed 0.25 Standing work Never exposed Exposed before 1990 48 20.1 50 0.88 123 51.4 50 0.74 167 69.9 50 1 Exposed before 1990 34 14.2 50 1.06 Exposed in 1990 38 15.9 50 1.01 Never exposed 129 54.0 50 1 Exposed before 1990 101 42.3 50 0.83 9 3.7 50 2.07 Exposed in 1990 0.21 High noise Never exposed 0.96 Work 48 hours/week Exposed in 1990 0.07 Difficult schedules Never exposed 172 72.0 50 1 Exposed before 1990 53 22.2 50 0.92 Exposed in 1990 14 5.8 50 0.86 0.81 Shift work Never exposed 176 73.6 50 1 Exposed before 1990 41 17.2 50 1.11 Exposed in 1990 22 9.2 52 0.63 0.08 Repetitive work Never exposed 152 63.6 50 1 Exposed before 1990 55 23.0 50 1.05 Exposed in 1990 32 13.4 52 0.65 High strain 36 15.1 50 1 Passive 45 18.8 51 0.85 0.09 Job strain in 1990 Active Low strain 105 43.9 50 1.42 53 22.2 50 1.44 0.03 * Menopause-free survival curve. y Exposed to carrying heavy loads or vibrations or work exertion required to operate tools or machines. low-strain jobs with low demands had no effect on the reproductive function. However, among women with a history of depression, we found that earlier menopause was associated with active and low strain, that is, high job control. This surprising result may be explained by the fact that women reporting a history of depression may perceive job strain, especially high decision latitude, differently from other women without depression. Job strain, though, was based on the job held in 1990, which may not be representative of a woman’s usual occupational position, and perhaps the depression led to a job change. It is also possible that this result could be due to some idiosyncrasy in this small sample Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 (n ¼ 239). Indeed this factor appeared significant in only 37 percent of the bootstrap samples. The relation between age at menopause and repetitive work may have been biased by selection of the sample population at the first phase of the survey (e.g., the healthy worker effect), and this may explain the inverse relation between repetitive work under time constraints and age at menopause. Women who reported repetitive work in 1990 may have been in better health, given that they had already put up with this working condition for a long time (36). The effect on age at menopause of difficult schedules could be due to conflict between night work schedules and circadian 436 Cassou et al. TABLE 5. Multivariate Cox model among French women without self-reported history of depression who were born in 1938 (n ¼ 1,330*) Full model Variables Hazard ratio Final model Likelihood ratio test p value Hazard ratio 95% confidence interval Likelihood ratio test p value 0.8 0.7, 0.9 0.003 <0.001 Education: high school 0.8 0.004 Smoking: current and >10 cigarettes/day 1.9 <0.001 1.9 1.4, 2.5 Body mass index (kg/m2): 22.5–<25.9 0.9 0.3 —y — — Body mass index (kg/m2): 25.9 0.9 0.07 — — — High strain job in 1990 1.3 0.01 1.3 1.1, 1.6 0.01 Repetitive work in 1990 0.8 0.02 0.7 0.6, 0.9 0.005 Shift work before 1990 1.0 0.90 — — Shift work in 1990 0.9 0.35 — — — Difficult schedules before 1990 1.2 0.06 1.2 1.0, 1.4 0.03 Difficult schedules in 1990 1.0 0.69 — — — — * Twenty-five participants with missing data in at least one variable were not included in the analysis. y —, variable not included in the final model. rhythms (37). Although multiple comparisons may account for these results, the data show specific relations between psychosocial stressors and age at menopause and no relations with physical constraints. Our study has several strengths. Because the women included in the analysis were all born in 1938, our results are not affected by a generational bias due to the variability of reproductive histories across different generations (38). Our sample was relatively homogeneous in terms of the timing of reproductive events and culturally determined variables. Data were, in part, prospectively collected, and the follow-up rate was high. The population was relatively large and not clinically based. A standardized protocol was used for the interview. Many potential confounders were examined. However, various factors that may influence ovarian senescence were not taken into account, including dietary factors, menstrual cycle regularity, and alcohol consumption. In addition, women were not asked if they had ever undergone induction of ovulation (ovarian hyperstimulation), although it is unlikely that many women born in 1938 did. Because of the unreliability of information about age at menopause of the participants’ mothers, we did not TABLE 6. Multivariate Cox model among French women with self-reported history of depression who were born in 1938 (n ¼ 226*) Full model Variables Final model Hazard ratio Likelihood ratio test p value Hazard ratio 95% confidence interval Likelihood ratio test p value Social category: executive 1.1 0.8 —y — — Education: high school 1.6 0.12 1.9 1.2, 3.1 <0.01 Former smoker and 10 cigarettes/day 0.8 0.67 — — — Former smoker and >10 cigarettes/day 1.0 0.99 — — — Current smoker and 10 cigarettes/day 0.4 0.02 — — — Current smoker and >10 cigarettes/day 1.1 0.66 — — — Smoking Age at menarche: 13 years 0.6 0.004 0.6 0.5, 0.9 0.004 Parity: 1 0.4 <0.001 0.4 0.3, 0.6 <0.001 Oral contraceptive use 10 years and age at first use 30 years 1.2 0.55 — — — High job control in 1990 1.3 0.15 1.4 1.0, 2.0 0.03 Repetitive work in 1990 0.9 0.83 — — — Work 48 hours/week in 1990 1.5 0.33 — — — Shift work in 1990 0.6 0.90 — — — * Thirteen participants with missing data in at least one variable were not included in the analysis. y —, variable not included in the final model. Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 Work-related Factors and Age at Natural Menopause collect this information. Murabito et al. (39) estimate that genetic factors may explain at least 50 percent of interindividual variability. These results must be interpreted in light of the specificities of our sample. The ESTEV population included workers in the second half of their careers, followed by an occupational physician and working mainly in private industry and trade. Although the geographic regions surveyed cover the socioeconomic diversity of France, we cannot guarantee that the sample population is representative of the entire French working population. Moreover, the physician participation rate was quite low at 60 percent. The high return rate by participants in 1995, stable in all six regions, limits the potential bias from nonparticipation. The reasons for nonparticipation in 1990 were as follows: 1) refusal to participate, by 50 percent of those selected but not interviewed; 2) nonemployment (resignation, layoff) for 16.6 percent; 3) failure to come to the occupational clinical examination for 8.3 percent; 4) sick leave for 8.3 percent; and 5) unknown reasons for 16.8 percent. Menopause was, as is standard, diagnosed retrospectively. The section of the questionnaire concerning menopause was completed by a physician aware that women must not have menstruated for at least a year to be considered postmenopausal. The reliability of reported age at natural menopause declines with time since menopause (40). In our study, women had been naturally postmenopausal for an average of 2 years when they reported age at natural menopause. A total of 66.6 percent (n ¼ 807) of the women reported natural menopause before 1990, 29.4 percent (n ¼ 356) between 1990 and 1994, and 4 percent (n ¼ 48) had not yet reached menopause in 1995. Of those who had experienced natural menopause before 1990 and were interviewed twice, 41.4 percent reported exactly the same age at menopause both times, and another 41.7 percent reported an age at menopause within 1 year at the first and second interviews. A digit preference for ages 45 and 50 was not observed in our study. Depression was not diagnosed by validated scales but by women’s self-reports. To avoid making the questionnaire too long, since depression was not our principal predictor variable, we did not use a standardized instrument, and our method is susceptible to underreporting. However, similar questions have been used in numerous studies of middleaged women (41), and we did find a strong correlation between the Nottingham Health Profile score of emotional reactions and self-reported history of depression (p < 0.0001). The validity and reliability of exposure must be discussed. The occupational physicians monitored the validity of the information provided on working conditions and verified its consistency with information on the job specification sheet included in the medical file. They corrected roughly 2 percent of workers’ statements. Reliability of reported toxic exposures was not good, and we did not consider these exposures in the analysis. Use of self-reports to assess work stress, especially job strain, may be a source of bias. Yet, previous studies in similar conditions have produced high correlations between subjective assessments and expert ratings of job conditions (42). Recall of past work Am J Epidemiol 2007;166:429–438 437 load is still a serious problem in this type of study, but differential classification bias is unlikely since all participants faced this problem to the same extent. The timing of exposures must also be considered in designing studies of occupational exposures that may affect ovarian senescence. For example, women exposed for less than 10 years to physical working conditions might have experienced these conditions only after menopause had already begun. This nonetheless seems very unlikely, since examination of occupational histories showed that these exposures were probably present at the beginning of employment for nearly all women. Moreover, only 5 percent of naturally postmenopausal women reported that their first and last jobs were different, and depression occurred at least 5 years before menopause for 63 percent of the naturally postmenopausal women who had been depressed. Although it is impossible to know the precise temporal relations between depression, working conditions, and especially job strain and age at menopause, we can consider that the most likely sequence is awkward working conditions, depression, and menopause. The most important factor determining a woman’s age at onset of menopause is probably the number of ovarian follicles (43). 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