Pre-print PDF - Vincent Arel

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5BCMF BMMPXT VT UP BTTFTT UIF WBMJEJUZ PG PVS NFBTVSFNFOU NPEFM JU TUBUFT PVS FYQFD
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JO UIF 1$" NPEFM " QMVT TJHO JO UIF TFDPOE DPMVNO JOEJDBUFT UIBU UIF WBSJBCMF TIPVME
CF QPTJUJWFMZ SFMBUFE UP BO BHFODZT EFHSFF PG JOEFQFOEFODF 'PS FYBNQMF êYFE UFSNT JO
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PO OPNJOBUJPOT BU UIF BHFODZ PUIFS
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7BSJBCMF EFTDSJQUJPOT BEBQUFE GSPN -FXJT BOE 4FMJO PUIFSXJTF -FXJT BOE 4FMJO ѮVT XF VTF PVS UIFPSFUJDBMMZNPUJWBUFE BOE NPSF
OVBODFE NFBTVSF PG BHFODZ JOEFQFOEFODF JO UIF SFHSFTTJPO BOBMZTFT UIBU GPMMPX
*O 5BCMF PG UIF POMJOF BQQFOEJY XF SFQMJDBUF PVS QSJNBSZ SFHSFTTJPO SFTVMUT VTJOH B DPNNPOMZ VTFE
CJOBSZ NFBTVSF PG JOEFQFOEFODF ѮF SFTVMUT TVQQPSU UIPTF QSFTFOUFE IFSF CVU DBSFGVM SFBEFST XJMM OPUF UIBU
UIF NBSHJOBM FĒFDUT XF FTUJNBUF VTJOH UIF CJOBSZ NFBTVSF BSF TVCTUBOUJBMMZ TNBMMFS UIBO UIF NBSHJOBM FĒFDUT XF
FTUJNBUF VTJOH PVS DPOUJOVPVT JOEFY PG JOEFQFOEFODF ѮJT êOEJOH JT DPOTJTUFOU XJUI UIF JEFB UIBU UIF CJOBSZ
WBSJBCMF NFBTVSFT JOEFQFOEFODF XJUI FSSPS UIFSFCZ JOUSPEVDJOH BUUFOVBUJPO CJBT JO UIF FTUJNBUJPO
Executive branch
'JHVSF $POUJOVPVT WT CJOBSZ NFBTVSFT PG BHFODZ JOEFQFOEFODF GSPN UIF &YFDVUJWF 64 HPWFSONFOU BHFODJFT XJUI GPVS BJE HJWJOH BHFODJFT JEFOUJêFE CZ OBNF
No
●●
●
●●
Yes
●
State
0.00
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
DODDOL
● ●●●
●
0.25
●
●●
●
●
●
●
USAID
●● ●
● ●
●
●
●●●●
● ●●
●●●
● ●
●● ●●●●
●
●
MCC
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
0.50
0.75
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
1.00
Agency independence
ĚĠĞħĜIJ ĢħĝĞĩĞħĝĞħĜĞ Ěħĝ ğĨīĞĢĠħ ĚĢĝ
Ě īĞĠīĞĬĬĢĨħ ĚħĚĥIJĬĢĬ
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8F PQFSBUJPOBMJ[F UIF DPODFQU PG iEJQMPNBUJDu BJE HJWJOH VTJOH UXP DPNNPOMZ VTFE
WBSJBCMFT BMMJBODF BOE USBEF "MMJBODF JT B EVNNZ WBSJBCMF XIJDI UBLFT PO B WBMVF PG
POF JG UIF 64 BOE UIF QBSUOFS DPVOUSZ IBWF BU MFBTU POF PG GPVS UZQFT PG BMMJBODFT EFGFOTF
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FU BM UIF HFPHSBQIJD EJTUBODF GSPN UIF 64 /FVNBZFS #VFOP EF .FTRVJUB
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BO JOEJDBUPS PG OFFE JO SFDJQJFOU DPVOUSJFT 8PSME #BOL "HBJO UP EFNPOTUSBUF
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ѮF EFQFOEFOU WBSJBCMF JO PVS UFTUT JT UIF BOOVBM 0%" DPNNJUNFOUT GSPN 64 HPW
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PG PCTFSWBUJPO JT UIF BHFODZDPVOUSZZFBS 5P FTUJNBUF UIF NPEFSBUJOH JOëVFODF PG BHFODZ
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JOUFSBDUJWF MJOFBS NPEFM PG UIJT GPSN
0%" =βoda 0%"t−1 + βind *OEFQFOEFODF + βmot .PUJWF + βind∗mot *OE × .PUJWF+
βgdp (%1 + βpop 1PQVMBUJPO + βdem %FNPDSBDZ + Ω + α + ε,
XIFSF i0%"u SFQSFTFOUT UIF MPH EPMMBS BNPVOU PG 0%" UIBU B SFDJQJFOU DPVOUSZ HFUT
i*OEFQFOEFODFu JT UIF NFBTVSF PG BHFODZ JOEFQFOEFODF EFTDSJCFE BCPWF i.PUJWFu JT POF
PG UISFF QSPYZ NFBTVSFT PG GPSFJHO QPMJDZ NPUJWFT NJMJUBSZ BMMJBODFT USBEF ëPXT BOE
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Ω JT B WFDUPS PG ZFBS DPVOUSZ BOEPS BHFODZ êYFE FĒFDUT PS B TFU PG
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JOEJDBUJPO JT HJWFO NPEFMT BSF FTUJNBUFE VTJOH 0SEJOBSZ -FBTU 4RVBSFT BOE UIF SFQPSUFE
TUBOEBSE FSSPST BSF SPCVTU UP BSCJUSBSZ GPSNT PG IFUFSPTLFEBTUJDJUZ
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WBSJBCMF 4FF 5BCMF JO UIF POMJOF BQQFOEJY
4FF 5BCMF JO UIF POMJOF BQQFOEJY 3FTVMUT BSF DPOTJTUFOU BDSPTT BMM EFWFMPQNFOU NPEFMT FYDFQU XIFO XF
DPOTJEFS UIF EBZ WBSJBCMF JO XIJDI DBTF UIF JOUFSBDUJPO UFSN JT PG UIF FYQFDUFE TJHO CVU JT OPU TUBUJTUJDBMMZ
TJHOJêDBOU
ѮF PSJHJOBM EBUB QPJOUT XFSF SFDPSEFE BU UIF QSPKFDU MFWFM CZ "JE%BUB 5JFSOFZ FU BM CVU XF BHHSFHBUF
UIFN UP PCUBJO BHFODZMFWFM êHVSFT
3FTVMUT
5BCMF QSFTFOUT SFTVMUT GPS UIF NPEFMT EFTDSJCFE CZ FRVBUJPO ѮF DPFēDJFOU FTUJNBUFT
BSF DPOTJTUFOU XJUI PVS FYQFDUBUJPOT .JMJUBSZ BMMJBODFT BSF QPTJUJWFMZ SFMBUFE UP 0%"
ëPXT GSPN BHFODJFT UIBU BSF OPU TIJFMEFE GSPN JOëVFODF CZ UIF &YFDVUJWF βall = 0.599
XJUI p < 0.01
CVU UIJT SFMBUJPOTIJQ OFBSMZ EJTBQQFBST JO IJHIMZ JOEFQFOEFOU BHFODJFT
βall + βind∗all = 0.025
4JNJMBS DPODMVTJPOT DBO CF ESBXO GSPN UIF 5SBEF NPEFM FTUJ
NBUFT βtra = 0.264 p < 0.01
BOE βtra + βind∗tra = 0.023 "MM BJE BHFODJFT BQQFBS
UP SFTQPOE QPTJUJWFMZ UP JOGBOU NPSUBMJUZ PVS JOEJDBUPS PG SFDJQJFOU OFFE βinf = 0.230
XJUI p < 0.01
BOE UIJT UFOEFODZ BQQFBST UP CF SFJOGPSDFE XIFSF BHFODJFT BSF JOEFQFO
EFOU GSPN JOëVFODF CZ UIF &YFDVUJWF βinf + βind∗inf = 0.478
"MM UISFF JOUFSBDUJPO
UFSN DPFēDJFOUT DSPTT VTVBM UISFTIPMET PG TUBUJTUJDBM TJHOJêDBODF
5BCMF 3FMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO GPSFJHO QPMJDZ NPUJWFT BHFODZ *OEFQFOEFODF BOE 0%" BMMP
DBUJPO QBUUFSOT -JOFBS NPEFMT 3PCVTU TUBOEBSE FSSPST ѮF NPEFMT JODMVEF BHFODZ BOE ZFBS
êYFE FĒFDUT BT XFMM BT BHFODZTQFDJêD UJNF USFOET PNJUUFE GSPN UIF UBCMF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.368
(0.360)
0.672
(0.008)
0.019
(0.004)
−0.373
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.599
(0.105)
−0.574
(0.197)
3.286
(0.530)
0.676
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.518
(0.032)
0.000
(0.028)
−3.669
(0.543)
0.676
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.150
(0.032)
0.197
(0.017)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
0.264
(0.025)
−0.241
(0.035)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.230
(0.060)
0.248
(0.087)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
Marginal effect of foreign policy motive on ODA allocation
'JHVSF .BSHJOBM FĒFDUT PG QPMJDZ NPUJWFT PO 0%" BMMPDBUJPO /PUF %PUUFE MJOFT SFQSF
TFOU DPOêEFODF CBOET 3VH QMPUT JOEJDBUF UIF MPDBUJPO PG FBDI BJE HJWJOH BHFODZ PO UIF
JOEFQFOEFODF TDBMF
Alliance
Trade
Infant mortality
0.8
0.4
0.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00 0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00 0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
Independence
" NPSF BDDFTTJCMF XBZ UP DPOWFZ UIF TBNF CBTJD SFTVMUT JT UP MPPL BU B HSBQIJDBM SFQSF
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EFOU BHFODJFT BSF QPTJUJWF BOE TUBUJTUJDBMMZ TJHOJêDBOU BU UIF α = 0.05 MFWFM *O UIF *OGBOU
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0%" ëPXT BOE JOGBOU NPSUBMJUZ
(JWFO UIF TFNJMPH TQFDJêDBUJPO PG UIF BMMJBODF UFTU JU JT FBTZ UP HFU B TFOTF PG UIF TVC
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TPST DPOTUBOU 64 BMMJFT UFOE UP SFDFJWF OFBSMZ NPSF 0%" UIBO OPOBMMJFT XIFSF UIF
BHFODZ MBDLT JOTUJUVUJPOBM TBGFHVBSET BHBJOTU JOëVFODF CZ UIF &YFDVUJWF ѮJT NBSHJOBM
FĒFDU CFDPNFT JOEJTUJOHVJTIBCMF GSPN [FSP BT TPPO BT UIF EFHSFF PG BHFODZ JOEFQFOEFODF
SFBDIFT BCPVU PO UIF TDBMF 4JNJMBSMZ B DIBOHF PG POF TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO JO UIF
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JO 0%"
GSPN EFQFOEFOU BHFODJFT "HBJO UIJT QPTJUJWF SFMBUJPOTIJQ WBOJTIFT BT XF JODSFBTF UIF
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BTTPDJBUFE XJUI BO JODSFBTF PG BCPVU QFSDFOUBHF QPJOUT JO UIF FTUJNBUFE NBSHJOBM FĒFDU
#VU TFF ѮPSOUPO BOE *OOFT GPS B EJTDVTTJPO PG QPUFOUJBM QSPCMFNT SFMBUFE UP UIF JOUFSQSFUBUJPO PG
TFNJMPH DPFēDJFOUT BT QFSDFOUBHF DIBOHF JO UIF EFQFOEFOU WBSJBCMF
1.00
PG -PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
*O TVN UIF SFTVMUT EFTDSJCFE JO 5BCMF BOE 'JHVSF BSF DPOTJTUFOU XJUI PVS UIFPSFUJ
DBM FYQFDUBUJPOT BOE UIF TJ[FT PG UIF FTUJNBUFE NBSHJOBM FĒFDUT BSF MBSHF BOE TVCTUBOUJWFMZ
TJHOJêDBOU
3PCVTUOFTT
ѮFTF SFTVMUT BSF SPCVTU UP B TFSJFT PG BMUFSOBUJWF NPEFM TQFDJêDBUJPOT 8F DPOTJEFS UIF
UXP NPTU JNQPSUBOU POFT IFSF BOE MJTU BEEJUJPOBM SPCVTUOFTT DIFDLT JO 'PPUOPUF XJUI
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UJNF JO UIF QPMJDZ NPUJWFT WBSJBCMFT BOE DPOTJEFSJOH UIBU TUJDLJOFTT JO UIF UXP TFUT PG
WBSJBCMFT JT iDSPTTDVUUJOHu JF XJUIJO BHFODZ WT XJUIJO DPVOUSZ
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PVS NBJO êOEJOHT EP OPU IBOH PO UIF QBOFM TUSVDUVSF PG UIF EBUBTFU ѮF êSTU UISFF NPE
FMT PG 5BCMF TIPX MJOFBS NPEFM FTUJNBUFT PCUBJOFE GSPN B QVSF DSPTTTFDUJPO VTJOH POMZ
UIF NFBO PG FBDI WBSJBCMF BU UIF BHFODZDPVOUSZ MFWFM *HOPSJOH UIF UJNF EJNFOTJPO EPFT
OPU BĒFDU PVS SFTVMUT JO B NFBOJOHGVM XBZ 'PS FYBNQMF BO JODSFBTF PG POF JO "MMJBODF
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XIFO *OEFQFOEFODF FRVBMT [FSP CVU
8F SFFTUJNBUFE UIF CBTF NPEFMT GSPN 5BCMF VTJOH WBSJPVT DPNCJOBUJPOT PG DPVOUSZ BHFODZ BOE ZFBS
êYFE FĒFDUT 5BCMFT FYDMVEFE JOëVFOUJBM DPVOUSZ BOE BHFODZ PVUMJFST 5BCMFT BOE SFDPEFE UIF
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PG MPHJTUJD SFHSFTTJPO NPEFMT 5BCMF JODMVEFE BMM UIF QPMJDZ NPUJWFT JO B TJOHMF SFHSFTTJPO FRVBUJPO 5BCMF
DPOUSPMMFE GPS UIF PDDVSSFODF PG EJWJEFE HPWFSONFOU 5BCMF DPOUSPMMFE GPS UIF PDDVSSFODF PG JOUFS PS
JOUSBTUBUF BSNFE DPOëJDU 5BCMF VTFE B NPSF USBEJUJPOBM EVNNZ WBSJBCMF UP NFBTVSF JOEFQFOEFODF i JG
BO BHFODZ JT PVUTJEF UIF FYFDVUJWF PēDF PG UIF 1SFTJEFOU PS BO FYFDVUJWF EFQBSUNFOU BOE PUIFSXJTFu -FXJT
BOE 4FMJO 5BCMF SFFTUJNBUFE PVS DPSF NPEFMT XJUI BO BMUFSOBUJWF DPOUJOVPVT NFBTVSF PG BHFODZ
JOEFQFOEFODF CZ 4FMJO 5BCMF DPOTJEFSFE BMUFSOBUJWF NFBTVSFT PG OFFE JO SFDJQJFOU DPVOUSJFT UIF MPH
PG (%1 QFS DBQJUB QFSDFOU PG QPQVMBUJPO MJWJOH XJUI MFTT UIBO B EBZ QFSDFOU PG QPQVMBUJPO MJWJOH XJUI "*%4
BOE MJGF FYQFDUBODZ 5BCMF DPOTJEFSFE BMUFSOBUJWF NFBTVSFT PG 64 FDPOPNJD BOE NJMJUBSZ JOUFSFTU MPH PG
UIF OVNCFS PG "NFSJDBO USPPQT TUBUJPOFE JO UIF SFDJQJFOU DPVOUSZ MPH PG OFU GPSFJHO EJSFDU JOWFTUNFOU PVUëPXT
GSPN UIF 64 UP UIF SFDJQJFOU BOE B CJOBSZ JOEJDBUPS GPS UIF FYJTUFODF PG B CJMBUFSBM UBY USFBUZ CFUXFFO UIF 64
BOE UIF SFDJQJFOU 5BCMF BOE BDDPVOUFE GPS VODFSUBJOUZ JO UIF FTUJNBUJPO PG PVS NFBTVSF PG BHFODZ JOEF
QFOEFODF CZ BQQMZJOH B OPOQBSBNFUSJD CPPUTUSBQ UP UIF 1$" NPEFM BOE CZ VTJOH UIF NFUIPE PG DPNQPTJUJPO
5BOOFS UP iQSPQBHBUFu UIF FTUJNBUFE VODFSUBJOUZ JOUP PVS NBJO SFHSFTTJPO NPEFMT 5BCMF 8F XFSF
BMTP IPQJOH UP USFBU TFSJPVTMZ UIF QPUFOUJBM FOEPHFOFJUZ CFUXFFO GPSFJHO BJE BOE USBEF ëPXT CVU XFSF VOBCMF
UP êOE BO JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMF XIJDI NFFUT UIF FYDMVTJPO SFTUSJDUJPO SFRVJSFNFOU 'PS MBDL PG CFUUFS PQUJPOT
XF MBHHFE BMM UIF SFHSFTTPST CZ B ZFBS BOE SFFTUJNBUFE BMM PVS NBJO NPEFMT 5BCMF "HBJO UIF NBJO SFTVMUT
SFNBJO TVCTUBOUJWFMZ VODIBOHFE
XJUI B SFEVDUJPO PG XIFO *OEFQFOEFODF FRVBMT POF UIF MBUUFS JT TUBUJTUJDBMMZ JOEJT
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-JLFXJTF UIF JOUFSBDUJPO UFSN JO UIF USBEF 0-4 TQFDJêDBUJPO JT
OFHBUJWF XIJMF UIF JOGBOU NPSUBMJUZ JOUFSBDUJPO JT QPTJUJWF BOE TUBUJTUJDBMMZ TJHOJêDBOU
" TFDPOE QPUFOUJBM DPODFSO JT UIBU PVUMJFST NBZ ESJWF PVS SFTVMUT $FSUBJO IJHI MFWFS
BHF DPVOUSJFT GPS FYBNQMF "GHIBOJTUBO BOE &HZQU SFDFJWF MBSHF BNPVOUT PG GPSFJHO BJE
BOE BSF TUSBUFHJDBMMZ JNQPSUBOU GPS UIF 64 1SFTJEFOU 4JNJMBSMZ B GFX PG UIF BJE HJWJOH
BHFODJFT NBZ IPME EJTQSPQPSUJPOBUF XFJHIU JO PVS BOBMZTJT FJUIFS CFDBVTF UIFZ BDDPVOU
GPS B MBSHF TIBSF PG UPUBM 0%" FH 64"*%
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32
/VN PCT
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
"MMJBODF
*OEFQFOEFODF
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1PMJUZ
*OUFSDFQU
−4.257
(1.192)
0.064
(0.019)
0.470
(0.074)
0.206
(0.423)
1.081
(0.453)
−1.669
(0.970)
0-4 0.031
(0.075)
−0.601
(0.162)
−6.630
(1.223)
0.095
(0.017)
0.617
(0.080)
3.794
(1.147)
0-4 0.789
(0.171)
0.778
(0.371)
−6.109
(1.271)
0.116
(0.017)
0.425
(0.074)
−2.867
(1.238)
0-4 −0.084
(0.269)
0.008
(0.004)
0.036
(0.017)
−0.381
(0.096)
0.330
(0.106)
−0.575
(0.198)
.
0.057
(0.019)
−0.159
(0.036)
−0.553
(0.292)
0.011
(0.004)
0.045
(0.019)
0.587
(0.254)
.
0.130
(0.046)
0.021
(0.092)
−0.329
(0.303)
0.015
(0.004)
0.027
(0.017)
−0.539
(0.316)
.
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UIBU UIF FYDMVTJPO PG FYUSFNF DPVOUSJFT BOE BHFODJFT EPFT OPU BĒFDU PVS TVCTUBOUJWF DPO
DMVTJPOT " MFTT BE IPD BQQSPBDI JT UP VTF B IJHI CSFBLEPXO QPJOU .FTUJNBUPS ѮF UISFF
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DJFOUT JO MBCPS SFTFBSDI +PVSOBM PG -BCPS 3FTFBSDI m ?iiT,ffHBMFX
bT`BM;2`X+QKf`iB+H2fRyXRyydf"6yke38jj8
5JFSOFZ . + /JFMTPO % - )BXLJOT % ( 3PCFSUT + 5 'JOEMFZ . ( 1PXFST
3 . 1BSLT # 8JMTPO 4 & BOE )JDLT 3 - .PSF %PMMBST UIBO 4FOTF 3F
êOJOH 0VS ,OPXMFEHF PG %FWFMPQNFOU 'JOBODF 6TJOH "JE%BUB 8PSME %FWFMPQNFOU
m
5VMJT + ѮF 3IFUPSJDBM 1SFTJEFODZ 1SJODFUPO 6OJWFSTJUZ 1SFTT
8BOH + ;BNBS 3 .BSB[[J " :PIBJ 7 4BMJCJBO#BSSFSB . .BSPOOB 3 ;JWPU &
3PDLF % .BSUJO % .BFDIMFS . BOE ,POJT , SPCVTU 3PCVTU -JCSBSZ 3
QBDLBHF WFSTJPO 8JMEBWTLZ " ѮF 5XP 1SFTJEFODJFT 5SBOT"DUJPO 8JMTPO + 2 #VSFBVDSBDZ 8IBU (PWFSONFOU "HFODJFT EP BOE 8IZ ѮFZ EP JU
#BTJD #PPLT
8JOUFST . $IPPTJOH UP 5BSHFU 8IBU 5ZQFT PG $PVOUSJFT HFU %JĒFSFOU 5ZQFT PG
8PSME #BOL 1SPKFDUT 8PSME 1PMJUJDT m
8PPE # % BOE #PIUF + 1PMJUJDBM 5SBOTBDUJPO $PTUT BOE UIF 1PMJUJDT PG "ENJO
JTUSBUJWF %FTJHO +PVSOBM PG 1PMJUJDT m 8PPE # % BOE 8BUFSNBO 3 8 ѮF %ZOBNJDT PG 1PMJUJDBM $POUSPM PG UIF
#VSFBVDSBDZ "NFSJDBO 1PMJUJDBM 4DJFODF 3FWJFX m 8PSME #BOL 8PSME %FWFMPQNFOU *OEJDBUPST ?iiT,ff/iXrQ`H/#MFXQ`;f
/i@+iHQ;frQ`H/@/2p2HQTK2Mi@BM/B+iQ`b
ĚĩĩĞħĝĢı
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI SFDJQJFOU BOE BHFODZ êYFE FĒFDUT
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
−21.502
(4.784)
0.621
(0.008)
0.044
(0.019)
−0.295
(0.180)
1.470
(0.289)
−0.646
(0.202)
−26.720
(5.921)
0.628
(0.008)
0.024
(0.017)
−0.293
(0.218)
1.763
(0.354)
−29.627
(7.260)
0.625
(0.008)
0.022
(0.015)
−0.111
(0.255)
1.752
(0.324)
-PH5SBEF
0.206
(0.059)
−0.311
(0.036)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.150
(0.313)
0.401
(0.087)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI BHFODZ BOE ZFBS êYFE FĒFDUT
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
1.409
(0.393)
0.663
(0.008)
0.019
(0.005)
−0.380
(0.021)
0.146
(0.019)
0.611
(0.109)
−0.583
(0.205)
4.440
(0.556)
0.669
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.526
(0.033)
0.000
(0.029)
−2.896
(0.564)
0.667
(0.007)
0.036
(0.004)
−0.153
(0.033)
0.202
(0.017)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
0.283
(0.026)
−0.286
(0.036)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.197
(0.062)
0.357
(0.088)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI SFDJQJFOU BOE ZFBS êYFE FĒFDUT
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
*OEFQFOEFODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
−17.386
(7.949)
0.774
(0.006)
0.035
(0.021)
−0.248
(0.295)
1.299
(0.401)
0.051
(0.109)
−0.396
(0.208)
−12.003
(8.988)
0.776
(0.006)
0.018
(0.017)
−0.502
(0.318)
0.984
(0.466)
1.362
(0.264)
−17.347
(7.970)
0.772
(0.005)
0.015
(0.016)
−0.292
(0.290)
1.301
(0.393)
−0.878
(0.282)
-PH5SBEF
0.174
(0.062)
−0.222
(0.036)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.005
(0.452)
0.249
(0.087)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
32
/VN PCT
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
"MMJBODF
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
-PH(%1$BQ
1PMJUZ
-PH0%"
t−1
*OUFSDFQU
0.112
(0.370)
0.655
(0.008)
0.020
(0.005)
−0.324
(0.021)
0.136
(0.019)
0.589
(0.106)
−0.592
(0.200)
64"*% 0.259
(0.026)
−0.235
(0.036)
3.014
(0.537)
0.661
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.467
(0.033)
−0.006
(0.028)
64"*% 0.272
(0.061)
0.135
(0.087)
−3.745
(0.560)
0.659
(0.008)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.102
(0.033)
0.191
(0.017)
64"*% 4.478
(0.767)
0.665
(0.008)
0.019
(0.005)
−0.384
(0.022)
0.160
(0.019)
0.582
(0.107)
−0.365
(0.229)
"%' 0.276
(0.026)
−0.224
(0.040)
6.688
(0.848)
0.670
(0.008)
0.028
(0.004)
−0.555
(0.035)
−0.005
(0.030)
"%' 0.215
(0.062)
0.304
(0.099)
0.849
(0.827)
0.669
(0.007)
0.037
(0.004)
−0.160
(0.034)
0.217
(0.018)
"%' 0.305
(0.359)
0.674
(0.008)
0.019
(0.004)
−0.364
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.398
(0.108)
−0.284
(0.201)
%0% 5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF CVU FYDMVEJOH BHFODZ PVUMJFST
0.237
(0.026)
−0.217
(0.036)
2.926
(0.536)
0.677
(0.008)
0.024
(0.004)
−0.496
(0.033)
0.016
(0.028)
%0% 0.191
(0.061)
0.273
(0.088)
−3.385
(0.548)
0.678
(0.008)
0.032
(0.004)
−0.161
(0.032)
0.190
(0.017)
%0% 5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF CVU FYDMVEJOH DPVOUSZ PVUMJFST m "GHIBOJTUBO $PMPNCJB
&HZQU *SBR *TSBFM *TSBFM 1BLJTUBO
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.350
(0.364)
0.670
(0.008)
0.019
(0.005)
−0.371
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.527
(0.107)
−0.415
(0.203)
3.328
(0.532)
0.674
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.518
(0.032)
−0.009
(0.028)
−3.637
(0.549)
0.674
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.150
(0.032)
0.194
(0.017)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
0.261
(0.026)
−0.217
(0.036)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.218
(0.061)
0.272
(0.088)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
"*$
#*$
-PH -JLFMJIPPE
%FWJBODF
/VN PCT
32
-PH0%"
t−1
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
"MMJBODF
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
-PH(%1$BQ
1PMJUZ
3FDJQJFOUt−1
*OUFSDFQU
−19.024
(981.383)
3.369
(0.062)
0.024
(0.005)
−0.408
(0.022)
0.138
(0.017)
0.657
(0.094)
−0.530
(0.174)
-PHJU 0.270
(0.025)
−0.207
(0.032)
−15.909
(927.030)
3.299
(0.062)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.571
(0.034)
−0.021
(0.028)
-PHJU 0.279
(0.060)
0.171
(0.090)
−23.106
(921.944)
3.383
(0.058)
0.042
(0.004)
−0.170
(0.033)
0.192
(0.016)
-PHJU 0.175
(0.006)
0.018
(0.005)
−0.114
(0.025)
0.245
(0.017)
0.020
(0.085)
−0.161
(0.134)
9.633
(0.616)
0-4 0.175
(0.005)
0.046
(0.022)
−0.045
(0.027)
0.016
(0.004)
−0.117
(0.035)
0.224
(0.027)
11.654
(0.654)
0-4 −0.008
(0.060)
0.160
(0.088)
0.176
(0.005)
0.017
(0.004)
−0.073
(0.033)
0.259
(0.016)
8.627
(0.719)
0-4 5BCMF 1SPCBCJMJUZ PG PCUBJOJOH 64 0%" BOE WBMVF PG 0%" SFDFJQUT JO UIF SFDJQJFOU TVCTBNQMF -PHJU BOE PSEJOBSZ
MFBTU TRVBSFT NPEFMT "HFODZTQFDJêD UJNF USFOET PNJUUFE GSPN UIF UBCMF
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF CVU DPOUSPMMJOH GPS BMM GPSFJHO QPMJDZ NPUJWFT JO FBDI FRVBUJPO
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.748
(0.831)
0.671
(0.008)
0.025
(0.005)
−0.392
(0.051)
0.031
(0.032)
0.132
(0.026)
0.514
(0.113)
0.211
(0.059)
−0.716
(0.207)
1.422
(0.832)
0.669
(0.008)
0.025
(0.005)
−0.394
(0.051)
0.031
(0.032)
0.228
(0.030)
0.267
(0.081)
0.212
(0.058)
0.174
(0.848)
0.672
(0.008)
0.025
(0.005)
−0.392
(0.051)
0.031
(0.032)
0.131
(0.026)
0.265
(0.081)
0.105
(0.071)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
-PH5SBEF
"MMJBODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
−0.274
(0.041)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
0.303
(0.103)
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI BEEJUJPOBM DPOUSPM WBSJBCMF GPS EJWJEFE HPWFSONFOU JO UIF
64
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
1.366
(0.426)
0.672
(0.008)
0.019
(0.004)
−0.373
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
−0.998
(0.220)
0.599
(0.105)
−0.574
(0.197)
4.304
(0.576)
0.676
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.518
(0.032)
0.000
(0.028)
−1.018
(0.235)
−2.657
(0.558)
0.676
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.150
(0.032)
0.197
(0.017)
−1.012
(0.198)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
%JWJEFE (PWFSONFOU
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
0.264
(0.025)
−0.241
(0.035)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.230
(0.060)
0.248
(0.087)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI BEEJUJPOBM DPOUSPM GPS UIF PDDVSFODF PG JOUFSTBUFJOUSBTUBUF
JOUFSNFEJBUF BSNFE DPOëJDUT PS XBST 6$%1
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
−1.069
(0.502)
0.672
(0.012)
0.030
(0.006)
−0.205
(0.028)
0.156
(0.026)
−0.132
(0.127)
0.585
(0.143)
−0.631
(0.294)
0.901
(0.686)
0.678
(0.011)
0.033
(0.005)
−0.304
(0.041)
0.069
(0.037)
−0.084
(0.119)
−3.799
(0.771)
0.678
(0.011)
0.039
(0.005)
−0.118
(0.045)
0.199
(0.024)
−0.112
(0.119)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
DPOëJDU
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH5SBEF
0.191
(0.033)
−0.206
(0.049)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
−0.134
(0.085)
0.663
(0.137)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF CVU VTJOH B CJOBSZ *OEFQFOEFODF NFBTVSF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.339
(0.360)
0.672
(0.008)
0.019
(0.004)
−0.373
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.483
(0.086)
−0.227
(0.126)
2.979
(0.530)
0.678
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.516
(0.032)
0.000
(0.028)
−3.766
(0.544)
0.675
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.150
(0.032)
0.198
(0.017)
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODFd -PH5SBEF
0.215
(0.023)
−0.093
(0.022)
-PH5SBEF
9 *OEFQFOEFODFd -PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.234
(0.054)
0.219
(0.056)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 *OEFQFOEFODFd 32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF CVU VTJOH BO BMUFSOBUJWF NFBTVSF PG BHFODZ *OEFQFOEFODF GSPN
4FMJO *OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
"MMJBODF
"MMJBODF 9 TFMJO
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.333
(0.360)
0.672
(0.008)
0.019
(0.004)
−0.373
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.503
(0.092)
−0.279
(0.159)
2.882
(0.529)
0.679
(0.008)
0.027
(0.004)
−0.516
(0.032)
0.000
(0.028)
−3.675
(0.540)
0.675
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.150
(0.032)
0.198
(0.017)
-PH5SBEF
0.216
(0.023)
−0.097
(0.028)
-PH5SBEF
9 TFMJO
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
0.219
(0.055)
0.258
(0.069)
-PH*OGBOU .PSUBMJUZ
9 TFMJO
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF "MUFSOBUJWF NFBTVSFT PG EFWFMPQNFOU OFFE m JODPNF QFS DBQJUB PG "*%4 JO UIF
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
PG -PH1PQVMBUJPO
VOEFS QFS EBZ BOE MJGF FYQFDUBODZ
*OUFSDFQU
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
-PH(%1$BQ
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
−0.215
(0.351)
0.678
(0.007)
0.030
(0.004)
−0.269
(0.029)
0.181
(0.016)
−0.133
(0.056)
−5.272
(0.740)
0.567
(0.015)
0.036
(0.009)
−0.088
(0.044)
0.443
(0.038)
−1.476
(0.968)
0.653
(0.013)
0.036
(0.010)
−0.202
(0.103)
0.130
(0.034)
0.301
(0.380)
0.677
(0.007)
0.029
(0.004)
−0.312
(0.026)
0.185
(0.017)
"*%41PQVMBUJPO
0.097
(0.040)
0.183
(0.083)
"*%41PQVMBUJPO 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
1PWFSUZ
0.013
(0.005)
0.004
(0.007)
1PWFSUZ 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-JGF FYQFDUBODZ
0.012
(0.005)
−0.035
(0.008)
-JGF FYQFDUBODZ 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF .PEFMT GSPN 5BCMF XJUI BMUFSOBUJWF NFBTVSFT PG 64 EJQMPNBUJD JOUFSFTU m 5SPPQT
TUBUJPOFE JO UIF SFDJQJFOU DPVOUSZ %JTUBODF GSPN UIF 64 OFU '%* PVUëPX GSPN UIF 64 UP
UIF SFDJQJFOU BOE CJMBUFSBM UBY USFBUZ
-PH0%"
t−1
1PMJUZ
-PH(%1$BQ
-PH1PQVMBUJPO
-PH5SPPQT
-PH5SPPQT
9 *OEFQFOEFODF
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
-PH0%"
0.670
(0.007)
0.035
(0.004)
−0.352
(0.023)
0.144
(0.020)
0.062
(0.020)
−0.098
(0.037)
0.675
(0.007)
0.025
(0.004)
−0.349
(0.019)
0.194
(0.017)
0.674
(0.008)
0.027
(0.005)
−0.392
(0.025)
0.176
(0.021)
0.677
(0.007)
0.031
(0.004)
−0.292
(0.019)
0.206
(0.018)
%JTUBODF
−0.046
(0.013)
−0.005
(0.026)
%JTUBODF 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
'%*
0.035
(0.012)
−0.095
(0.022)
'%* 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
#55
−0.002
(0.091)
−0.606
(0.173)
#55 9 *OEFQFOEFODF
32
/VN PCT
5BCMF #PPUTUSBQQFE 1$" NPEFM XJUI NFUIPE PG DPNQPTJUJPO 3FMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO GPS
FJHO QPMJDZ NPUJWFT BHFODZ JOEFQFOEFODF BOE 0%" BMMPDBUJPO QBUUFSOT -JOFBS NPEFMT 3P
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0.425
(0.359)
0.670
(0.008)
0.018
(0.004)
−0.381
(0.021)
0.142
(0.018)
0.636
(0.105)
−0.619
(0.198)
3.450
(0.506)
0.672
(0.007)
0.026
(0.004)
−0.538
(0.031)
−0.004
(0.027)
−3.766
(0.544)
0.675
(0.007)
0.035
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−0.149
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0.200
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0.253
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−0.217
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0.245
(0.061)
0.242
(0.087)
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t−1 9 *OEFQFOEFODFt−1
32
/VN PCT
'JHVSF %JTUSJCVUJPO PG 0%" SFDFJQUT CZ DPVOUSZ BOE BHFODZ PG IRQ
AFG
COL
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ETH
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0e+00
1e+10
2e+10
Official development assistance
3e+10
'JHVSF %JTUSJCVUJPO PG 0%" SFDFJQUT CZ DPVOUSZ BOE BHFODZ PG 1MFBTF OPUF UIF DIBOHF
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0e+00
1e+08
2e+08
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3e+08