Final Report for Alberta Utilities Commission Calgary, Alberta Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources H334053 Rev. 1 February 26, 2010 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 Alberta Utilities Commission Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources Prepared by: LCB/JG/SM/BA January 28, 2010 Date Lance Bendiak February 26, 2010 Date Approvals Hatch Approved by: Alberta Utilities Commission Completed according to terms of reference: Don Popowich February 26, 2010 Date Distribution List Don Popowich - AUC ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page i © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 PREFACE Hatch Ltd. (Hatch) was retained by the Alberta Utilities Commission to update the Energy Resources Conservation Board May 1981 Report, “Alberta Hydroelectric Energy Resources“, which was originally published in April 1973. While most of the basic information contained in 1981 report remains unchanged, the hydrologic data recorded and published since that time have been examined to determine their effect on the appraisal of hydroelectric resources. A few studies considering hydroelectric development were completed since that time. These recent studies have been considered in re-examining the underlying basis of the appraisal. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page ii © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Alberta there are five main river basins, the Athabasca, North Saskatchewan, Peace, Slave and South Saskatchewan. The ultimate hydroelectric energy potential that could be extracted from these river basins is about 53,000 gigawatt hours per year, or 42,000 gigawatt hours per year at identified sites. These figures refer to what might be developed under favourable economic and other circumstances over a long period into the future. Approximately 75 percent per of this ultimate potential is contained in the Athabasca, Peace and Slave River basins within the northern part of the province. The remaining 25 percent is in the Red Deer River basin and the North and South Saskatchewan River basins within the southern part of the province. Between 1911 and 1972, thirteen hydroelectric plants were completed in the Bow (a tributary of the South Saskatchewan) and North Saskatchewan River basins. These thirteen plants have a total installed capacity of 800 megawatts, operate at an average capacity factor of about 25 percent and produce about 3 percent of the total 53,000 gigawatt hours per year of ultimate potential. Since about 1990 another nine hydroelectric plants were completed in Southern Alberta with a combined capacity of about 100 megawatts. Their average capacity factor is about 45 percent and they produce about 1 percent of the ultimate potential of the province. Since publication of the original report in 19731, various studies have been carried out for projects located on both northern and southern rivers. Northern projects have been examined for hydro electric potential, while southern projects have been examined for water supply purposes with supplementary investigation of the associated hydroelectric potential. The results of these studies have varied according to the type of project envisioned. In the early 1980’s there were studies completed for both the Dunvegan hydro project on the Peace River and Slave River hydro project. Although these projects appeared feasible they have not been developed further as large hydro projects. The Dunvegan site has recently been approved for a 100 MW low head run of river development which is not yet under construction. The Slave River hydro project has been looked at again recently by private developers. Basically, in the southern basins, hydroelectric plants appear feasible if the costs of dams and spillways are borne by some other water oriented purpose. This is the case for both the Dickson Dam and Oldman River Dam which have both had hydro facilities added after construction of the dams and spillways by Alberta Environment. 1 The Energy Resources Conservation Board April 1973 Report, ”The Hydro And Hydro Electric Energy Potential of Alberta - A Preliminarily Appraisal“ ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page iii © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 Hatch believes that major projects in the northern basins and smaller projects in the southern basins may be developed in the next 30 years. Total development in this period might be as high as 20 percent of the province's ultimate potential of 53,000 gigawatt hours per year. However, to realize this capacity, 2 major projects would likely have to be constructed. If feasible, such development would serve the interests of energy conservation, reducing carbon emissions and providing renewable energy for the provincial electric system. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page iv © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 Table of Contents PREFACE ................................................................................................................................................. ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents..................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables........................................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures......................................................................................................................................... vii 1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................... 1 2. PHYSIOGRAPHY, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY................................................................................... 3 2.1 2.2 2.3 PHYSIOGRAPHY........................................................................................................................... 3 CLIMATE ....................................................................................................................................... 4 HYDROLOGY ............................................................................................................................... 4 3. TECHNICAL BASIS OF THE APPRAISAL ................................................................................................. 6 3.1 DEFINITIONS AND ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................................... 6 3.2 DEFINITION OF ENERGY POTENTIALS ........................................................................................ 6 3.2.1 Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential (TMHE).................................................... 7 3.2.2 Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential (UDHE) ................................................... 8 3.2.3 Developed Hydroelectric Energy (DHE)...................................................................................... 8 3.2.4 Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites (RDHE-I) ................... 8 3.2.5 Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites (RDHE-U) ............ 9 3.3 GROSS HEAD AND AVERAGE FLOW........................................................................................... 9 4. THE ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN ........................................................................................................... 10 4.1 4.2 4.3 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 10 INVESTIGATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 10 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 12 5. THE CHURCHILL RIVER BASIN............................................................................................................ 14 5.1 5.2 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 14 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 14 6. THE HAY RIVER BASIN......................................................................................................................... 15 6.1 6.2 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 15 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 15 7. THE MILK RIVER BASIN........................................................................................................................ 16 7.1 7.2 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 16 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 16 8. THE NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN...................................................................................... 17 8.1 8.2 8.3 ISO 9001 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 17 INVESTIGATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................... 17 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 18 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page v © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 9. THE PEACE RIVER BASIN...................................................................................................................... 20 9.1 9.2 9.3 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 20 INVESTIGATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 20 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 21 10. THE RED DEER RIVER BASIN................................................................................................................ 22 10.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 22 10.2 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 22 11. THE SLAVE RIVER BASIN...................................................................................................................... 23 11.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 23 11.2 INVESTIGATIONS ....................................................................................................................... 23 11.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 23 12. THE SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN ...................................................................................... 25 12.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION............................................................................................................. 25 12.2 INVESTIGATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................... 26 12.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS................................................................................................................. 27 13. THE PROVINCE AS A WHOLE.............................................................................................................. 29 BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................................................................... 30 List of Tables 1 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Athabasca River Basin 2 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Churchill River Basin 3 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Hay River Basin 4 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Milk River Basin 5 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the North Saskatchewan River Basin 6 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Peace River Basin 7 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Red Deer River Basin 8 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Slave River Basin 9 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the South Saskatchewan River Basin 10 The Hydroelectric Energy Potential of Alberta ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page vi © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 List of Figures 1 Hydroelectric Capacity in Alberta 2 Alberta's Peak Load and Installed Capacity 3 Alberta River Basins 4 Alberta Bedrock Geology 5 Athabasca River Basin 6 Profile of the Athabasca River and its Major Tributaries 7 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationships - Athabasca River Basin 8 Churchill River Basin 9 Profile of the Beaver River (Churchill River Basin) 10 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationship - Beaver River (Churchill River Basin) 11 Hay River Basin 12 Profile of the Hay River 13 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationship - Hay River Basin 14 Milk River Basin 15 Profile of the Milk River 16 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationship - Milk River Basin 17 North Saskatchewan River Basin 18 Profile of the North Saskatchewan River and its Major Tributaries 19 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationship - North Saskatchewan River Basin 20 Peace River Basin 21 Profile of the Peace River and its Major Tributaries 22 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationships - Peace River Basin 23 Red Deer River Basin and its Major Tributaries 24 Profile of the Red Deer River 25 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationship - Red Deer River Basin 26 Slave River Basin 27 Profile of the Slave River 28 South Saskatchewan River Basin 29 Profile of the South Saskatchewan River and its Major Tributaries 30 Average Flow - Drainage Area Relationships - South Saskatchewan River Basin ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page vii © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 1. INTRODUCTION Hydroelectric development commenced in Alberta in 1896 with the construction of the Eau Claire plant at the end of the Eau Claire Sawmill log canal on the south side of Prince's Island in the City of Calgary. This plant had many problems with ice. For this reason and because of its small size and poor efficiency, it was later closed and removed. The earliest of the existing hydro plants commenced operating in 1911 when the Horseshoe Plant on the Bow River was commissioned to serve a cement plant located at Exshaw. This plant was subsequently connected to serve the City of Calgary. Since that time, 10 additional hydro plants have been built in the Bow River basin, 2 hydro plants on the North Saskatchewan River and 1 plant has been built in the Athabasca River basin. More recently there was 1 hydro plant built in the Red Deer River basin and 8 plants built in the South Saskatchewan River basin. The 1980 total installed capacity of the operating plants was 800 megawatts whereas in 2010 the capacity is about 900 megawatts. Figure 1 shows the historic sequence of hydro capacity additions. In the early years, hydroelectric plants were built as close as possible to the loads to be served. Recent technological advances in transmission and automation, the size of modern projects and the multi-purpose use of waters flowing through hydroelectric projects have altered the economic determining factors for developing hydroelectric plants. Presently, there is interest in developing hydroelectric plants at locations more remote from load centers. While hydro energy had played a significant role in Alberta and is still important, its role has been diminished in relative terms. In the early 1950’s, about half the province's installed capacity was hydroelectric. Currently the hydro capacity is about 7 percent of the total. This trend is shown in Figure 2. A number of rivers, either with headwaters in or flowing through Alberta, possess large hydro energy potential. Those rivers still undeveloped are mainly in the northern and sparsely settled part of the Province, whereas the rivers in the southern part of Alberta are substantially developed or already committed to other uses such as irrigation or municipal water supply. Studies and investigations dating as far back at 1916 have been undertaken from time to time by Government agencies and private companies on nearly all rivers of Alberta. Hatch presents an appraisal of the overall inventory and perspective of the hydroelectric energy resources in Alberta. Listed in the inventory are the theoretical hydro energy resources, the portion of that which considered potentially developable and the energy potential of known sites for which reports of previous investigations are available. Hatch also presents preliminary estimates of hydro energy which could be developed under favorable economic, environmental and social circumstances. However, Hatch does not propose to define the hydro energy which would actually be developed on any particular site or any particular river. The evaluation of any particular site for development must be based on detailed engineering and economic investigations and studies of ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 1 © Hatch 2010/02 1000 900 800 Installed Capacity (MW) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (Years) FIGURE 1 HYDRO ELECTRIC CAPACITY IN ALBERTA 14000 12000 Net Capacity (MW) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1998 2003 2008 Time (Years) Hydro Wind Biomass & Other Thermal Peak Load FIGURE 2 ALBERTA'S PEAK LOAD AND INSTALLED CAPACITY Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 many factors which are beyond the scope of this appraisal. Hatch also recognizes that a complete evaluation of any potential hydroelectric development must have regard for multipurpose possibilities and for social and environmental impacts. In this report, consideration has been limited to the main rivers and the major tributaries of each of the nine river basins of the Province as identified in Figure 3. Minor tributaries have not been considered because of lack of adequate hydrologic and geotechnical data related to them. Notwithstanding the lack of relevant data, Hatch believes that the minor tributaries would make only a small contribution to the total hydro energy resources of the Province and recognizes that a small part of this additional potential may be developed in conjunction with other projects. The inventory is broadly based upon topographic information obtained from the National Topographic Series maps and stream flow data from Water Survey of Canada stream gauging stations. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 2 © Hatch 2010/02 II I III AN SASKATCHEW V IV Map Legend VI Rivers Watershed Boundary Drainage Basins VII B R IT X H IS For purposes of this report the province is divided into basins as follows: C LU O 100 200 300 IA 50 B 0 M HAY I SLAVE II PEACE III ATHABASCA IV CHURCHILL V NORTH SASKATCHEWAN VI RED DEER VII SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN VIII MILK IX NON-CONTRIBUTING X VIII X IX 400 km FIGURE 3 ALBERTA RIVER BASINS Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 2. PHYSIOGRAPHY, CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY 2.1 PHYSIOGRAPHY Figure 4 presents the bedrock geology of the Province and shows Alberta comprised of four main divisions: the Canadian Shield in the northeast, the Interior plains region in the central and southeast, the Foothills in the south central region, and the Rocky Mountain Cordillera region covering the south-western portion of the Province. Each region is further divided into geologic periods where typical rock types are listed. The regions marked as “undivided” in the legend refer to areas where Geologic Periods cannot easily be differentiated. Rock types in these regions resemble a mixture of those in adjacent regions. The Rocky Mountains region is bounded by the Continental Divide on the west and by the most easterly ridge of the Rocky Mountains on the east. Local topography shows large elevation variations, from 1,200 metres in the large river valleys to over 3,000 metres at the mountain peaks. The sources of the Smoky, Athabasca, North Saskatchewan and South Saskatchewan rivers are in this region. The bedrock of the region is Paleozoic and Precambrian sedimentary rock consisting of limestone, dolomite, shale and quartzite. The valleys contain glacial gravel deposits, sometimes to great depths. In places, the mountains are capped by permanent snowfields and glaciers and the lower slopes are covered by alpine forests up to an elevation of about 2,100 metres. Paralleling the mountains and extending eastward from the eastern most ridge of the Rockies is the Foothills region, a transition zone between the Rocky Mountains and the Interior Plains regions. The characteristics of the transition zone are reflected in the vegetation. Alpine forest covers the higher elevations of the region and, as the elevation decreases, the vegetation changes to deciduous trees and finally to rolling grassland. The bedrocks of the region are Cretaceous, Jurassic, and Triassic formations composed of sandstone, shale, coal, carbonate rocks and gypsum. Rivers that originate in the mountains enter this zone at an elevation of about 1,200 metres and emerge on the plains at about 900 metres. A few rivers, such as the Berland, Nordegg and Little Red Deer Rivers originate in this region. The Interior Plains region is of low topographic relief, sloping gently eastward and northward, with poor drainage patterns and many small landlocked lakes, sloughs and marshes. Semi-arid conditions and "badlands" in the southeast part of the Province between the North and South Saskatchewan rivers change gradually to grassland, parkland, and bush country in the more moist central and northern parts of the plains. The soil deposited by the last continental glaciation is varied in texture and depth and mantles the bedrock by as much as 150 metres at some points. The bedrock beneath the plains may be generalized into four groups as shown in Figure 4. Eastward from the foothills are Tertiary sandstone, shale and coal; then Upper Cretaceous sandstone, shale, coal and bentonite. Further north is the Lower Cretaceous shale and the oil sands, and finally Devonian limestone, dolomite, shale and gypsum to the Canadian Shield. The flat or gently rolling topography of the plains is broken by a few ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 3 © Hatch 2010/02 AN SASKATCHEW MAP LEGEND BEDROCK GEOLOGY Geologic Period CANADIAN SHIELD Aphebian - Granite, Quartzite Helikian - Sandstone, Siltstone Archean - Granite, Gneiss, Quartzite INTERIOR PLAINS Cretaceous - Sandstone, Shale, Coal, Bentonite Devonian - Limestone, Dolomite, Salt, Gypsum IT BR FOOTHILLS H IS Tertiary - Sandstone, Shale, Coal CO LU M CORDILLERA A BI Lower Paleozoic - Limestone, Dolomite, Shale, Quartzite Upper Paleozoic - Limestone, Dolomite, Shale Middle - Limestone, Dolomite, Shale OTHER Undivided 0 50 100 200 300 400 km Source: Alberta Geological Survey ALBERTA BEDROCK GEOLOGY FIGURE 4 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 ridges of hills in which most of the small streams of the region have their source. Water yield from the plains is relatively low and in some areas almost negligible. The northeast corner of the Province is the Canadian Shield region, composed of hard Precambrian rocks which represent the roots of ancient mountains worn down through eons of time to a relatively level plain like surface. This Shield region is now characterized by numerous rounded and bare knobs of hard granite, gneiss and quartzite rocks, abundant angular lakes and marshy depressions, and an ineffective drainage system. Much of the land is lacking fine-grained surface material. The sparse vegetation is rooted in cracks in the rocks and only in a few sandy areas does jackpine exist in any abundance. No large streams originate in this region within Alberta, although minor streams provide drainage to the Slave River and Lake Athabasca. 2.2 CLIMATE Alberta is in the central belt of the northern cool temperate zone. It has cold winters and short, cool summers. Its climate is influenced by its latitude, altitude and distance from the ocean. Perhaps the most important factors affecting temperature and precipitation in Alberta are the height and width of the Rocky Mountains, and the direction of the prevailing winds which are from the west, southwest and northwest. The mean January temperature is -9 C in the most southern portion of the Province and decreases gradually to -23 C in the far northern parts. The mean temperature in July is about 16°C in the northern, central and south central part of the Province. It increases to about 20 C towards the southeast corner, and decreases to about 13 C in the mountain regions. The average annual precipitation of snow and rain is about 300 mm in the south eastern part of the Province, 460 mm in the central region and about 400 to 460 mm in the far northern area. Along the foothills and in the mountains precipitation ranges from 500 to 670 mm each year. 2.3 HYDROLOGY As shown in Figure 3, the Province is divided into nine river basins for the purpose of this appraisal. The Hay, Slave, Peace and Athabasca Rivers flow to the Arctic Ocean; the North Saskatchewan, Beaver (a tributary of the Churchill River), Red Deer and South Saskatchewan Rivers flow to the Hudson Bay; and a small area in the south is drained by the Milk River into the Missouri River system and the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all streams in the Province exhibit one general characteristic - stream flow begins to rise as the snowmelt season begins and, depending upon the incidence and intensity of rains, reaches an annual maximum during the months of May and June. Recession from the maximum usually continues through the rest of the summer and the succeeding winter with, however, significant differences between the various regions because of the variations in topography and in the timing and intensity of precipitation. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 4 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 On the plains, spring runoff from snowmelt begins in March or April and 80 percent or more of the total annual stream flow usually occurs in the next few weeks. In the Shield region, spring runoff is later than in the plains area further south. In the foothills, spring runoff occurs about the same time as on the plains, however, it tends to be prolonged as the warming trend gradually reaches the snow at higher elevations. The melt season in the region is closely followed by a rainy season and the streams do not recede from spring peaks but continue to rise and reach their maximum during periods of heavy precipitation in the early summer. Water yield is much higher in this region than in the plains and severe local floods may occur during the rainy season. In the mountain region, snowmelt starts later than in the plains and, while the streams originating in the plains are at their peak, the mountain streams may still be at their minimum flow. Spring thaw begins in the high snowfields in June and is completed in July. The rainy season usually begins in late May and peak flows are the result of the combination of rain and snowmelt anytime between late May and mid July. The July flows are also augmented by glacial melt, which tends to prolong the peak flows of summer. Almost all precipitation on the high snowfields is in the form of snow. Annual carry-over of snow accumulation in these areas depends on the summer temperatures. Winter flows on all rivers are affected by ice formation in winter. As the temperature drops below freezing, large quantities of ice are formed in the rivers. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 5 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 3. TECHNICAL BASIS OF THE APPRAISAL 3.1 DEFINITIONS AND ABBREVIATIONS Key definitions and abbreviations used in the energy assessment are listed below. Megawatt (MW) One million Watts Gigawatt (GW) One billion Watts Gigawatt hour (GWh) One billion Watt hours 3 Cubic metre per second (m /s) Capacity Factor 3.2 a flow rate of one cubic metre of water passing a particular point in one second. the percentage of the actual output of a power plant over a year or other period of time and its output if it had operated at full capacity the entire time. DEFINITION OF ENERGY POTENTIALS Estimates of the following energy potentials are made: • Theoretical maximum hydroelectric energy potential (TMHE), gigawatt hours per year; • Ultimate developable hydroelectric energy potential (UDHE), gigawatt hours per year; • Developed hydroelectric energy (DHE), gigawatt hours per year; • Remaining developable hydroelectric energy potential at sites which have been identified or studied (RDHE-I), gigawatt hours per year; and • Remaining developable hydroelectric energy potential at unidentified sites (RDHE-U), gigawatt hours per year. Below is an illustration of the various energy potential definitions that have been used in this study to estimate the energies for the river basins and potential sites. The definitions and explanatory discussions of each of the energy terms follow the illustration. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 6 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 3.2.1 Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential (TMHE) This is the maximum electric energy which could be generated during a year if all the flowing water were passed through turbines to generate electric energy. The conversion efficiency, which accounts for reservoir drawdown, unavoidable spill, and conduit, turbine and generation losses, has been estimated to be 70 percent. This percentage is 10 percent lower than in the previous studies because it provides better estimates of energy generation which are more in line with existing and anticipated hydroelectric developments. It has been based on a comparison of the actual generation at existing plants versus the value predicted with Equation 1. Therefore, the theoretical maximum hydroelectric energy (TMHE) which could be generated during a year is given by the following formula: TMHE = 0.0602 Q H (GWh per year) (Equation 1) where • Q = the average flow in the reach during the year in cubic metres per second (m3/s), • H = the gross head or elevation change over the reach in metres. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 7 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 3.2.2 Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential (UDHE) A certain portion of the theoretical maximum hydroelectric energy potential cannot be considered to be practically developable under any foreseeable technology or economic condition because of • the nature of the river gradient and the elevation of the banks and the surrounding land; • the lack of suitable sites; • major social or environmental restriction - national parks, historical or archaeological treasures, urban development; • other water uses such as irrigation; and • other similar factors. For these reasons, the ultimate developable hydroelectric energy (UDHE) potential will in most cases be substantially less than the theoretical maximum hydroelectric energy potential. In this appraisal, the UDHE is determined by reducing the TMHE through the application of broad judgment based upon a general assessment of the above listed factors. The fraction of the TMHE which were considered to be developable under any such foreseeable circumstances varies for individual rivers, or for individual reaches of a river, from 0 to 90 percent. For the Province as a whole, the fraction of the theoretical hydro electric potential which could be considered developable under favourable economic and other circumstances is estimated at about 50 percent. 3.2.3 Developed Hydroelectric Energy (DHE). This is the portion of the ultimate developable hydroelectric energy (UDHE) potential which is already developed. 3.2.4 Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites (RDHE-I) The further portion of the developable hydroelectric energy, which could be developed at sites studied or identified by past investigations, is designated RDHE-I. The identified sites include those investigated for irrigation, water supply, flood control and the regulation of river flow in addition to those investigated for hydro energy potential. The hydroelectric energy potential of such sites has been calculated using equation 1. The stream flow of any river in Alberta is far from uniform and varies not only on an irregular annual cycle but also from day to day and month to month. For example, the Athabasca River records show that the river at the Town of Athabasca receded to a minimum monthly flow of 50 m3/s in February of 1923, reached a maximum monthly flow of 2,500 m3/s in May of 1948, and has a long term average flow of 417 m3/s. Such records of wide variations in actual rivers flows show that without an appropriate combination of onsite and upstream reservoir storage, plus ample installed generating capacity at each site, the developable energy at any identified site will be less than the ultimate values tabulated in this report. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 8 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 3.2.5 Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites (RDHE-U) The remaining developable hydroelectric energy potential at unidentified sites is the ultimate potential (UDHE) less the developed potential (DHE) and less the identified developable potential (RDHE-I). The estimates of the RDHE-U reflect the same broad judgment referred to in the identification of the ultimate potential (UDHE). On a few river reaches where identified sites are overlapping each other the largest developable site has been used to develop totals for that river reach. 3.3 GROSS HEAD AND AVERAGE FLOW All energy calculations are based upon the gross head and the annual average stream flow. In this appraisal, the gross head or elevation change has in every instance been taken as the difference between head pond or reservoir full supply level and the tailwater level below a hydro site or plant at average flow. Stream gauging stations having long term records exist at several points along most rivers but the locations of the gauging stations rarely coincide with specific points of interest. Average annual flow estimates of individual river reaches or at identified sites are based on regional regressions of the available stream gauging records to the applicable drainage area. The technique is illustrated in Figure 7, Section 4. An important part of updating the estimation of hydroelectric energy potential is the re-examination of the hydrologic record to determine whether the previous estimates of average flows should be revised in light of the additional hydrologic records available. Water Survey of Canada publishes stream flow data annually. At the time of the last report, stream flow data to 1978 was used to estimate average flows. At the time of writing of this report, data were available to 2008. Mean flows incorporating all data to 2008 were compared to the flow reported in the previous report. It is worth noting that in the updating of the hydrology from the 1981 version, it was observed in the hydrometric data that rivers have shown a general reduction in recorded flows. Although some of this reduction can be attributed to new irrigation and industrial uses, this province wide trend suggests that annual rainfall accumulations are declining in Alberta and it is a dryer region than previously observed. While it is not certain, the trends observed are based on significantly more years of record and have therefore been used for the present analysis of hydroelectric potential. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 9 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 4. THE ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN 4.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Athabasca River, one of the larger rivers in Alberta, is the most southerly of the major tributaries of the MacKenzie River. The major tributaries of the Athabasca considered in this appraisal are the Berland, Wildhay, McLeod, Pembina and Clearwater Rivers. The Athabasca River has its source in the Rocky Mountains area near Mt. Columbia. It flows through most of the different geological formations to be found in the Province and, after following a north-easterly and northerly course for slightly less than 1 600 km, empties into Lake Athabasca. From there its waters are conveyed by the Slave River to Great Slave Lake and from there to the Arctic Ocean by the MacKenzie River. Figures 5 and 6 show the plan and profile of the Athabasca basin. In its upper reaches, the river valley has low banks, increasing in height from Hinton to Whitecourt. From Whitecourt to Fort McMurray, the valley is deep with a gradual tapering from there to Lake Athabasca. The average flow of the river at the Town of Athabasca is 417 m3/s. The maximum monthly recorded flow at Athabasca is 2,500 m3/s, the minimum recorded monthly flow is 50 m3/s. Lakes in the upper reaches of the drainage basin tend to regulate the flow and spring floods are not so prominent as in most mountain and foothills streams. However, flood conditions can occur, and the most likely period is the latter part of June and early July. The maximum daily flow at Athabasca was recorded as 5,440 m3/s on June 10, 1954. 4.2 INVESTIGATIONS Until 1951, the Athabasca River was considered to be the most favourable river for power development after the Bow River. Closer examinations in the early 1950's by the Alberta Power Commission and Calgary Power Ltd. (currently known as TransAlta) indicated certain advantages to developing the North Saskatchewan River. For the purposes of assessment of the energy potentials, the Athabasca River is divided into four reaches starting with Reach A from the source at the Columbia Glacier to Hinton; Reach B extending from Hinton to just above the mouth of the Pembina, at approximately Vega; Reach C extending from Vega to Fort McMurray; and Reach D from Fort McMurray to Lake Athabasca. Reach A, from the Columbia Glacier to Hinton, is almost entirely within the Jasper National Park and has a fall of approximately 550 metres in a distance of 215 km. This is an extremely large drop but on examination it would appear that good natural development sites are not present. On examining the old reports prepared by the Commission of Conservation Canada, the only sites considered were at Jasper Lake and at Brule Lake, both of which have limited storage and head and would result in difficulties with both the existing railway and the highway. When permission was requested in the early 1950's to examine the Maligne and Snake Indian Rivers, it was refused by the Parks Department of the Federal Government. The only development is a small hydro plant on the Astoria ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 10 © Hatch 2010/02 a Riv er b asc Atha Fort McMurray Crooked Rapids Site Brule Point Site er Clearwater Riv AN SASKATCHEW Moberly Rapids Site Whitemud Falls Site Grand Rapids Site Pelican Rapids Site Lesser Slave Lake Moose Portage Site Mirror Site Athabasca Image Rock Site Berland Site Labyrinth Site R y W ild ha Pinto Creek Site iver nd R Oldman Site iv er Berla Hinton Vega r ive R sca er aba R iv Ath ina b m Pe Whitecourt Edson McLeod River McLeod Site Pembina Site McLeod Valley Site BR SH ITI B UM 25 50 r ve 0 Ri IA Astoria Hydro a sc ba ha At L CO Jasper 100 150 FIGURE 5 200 km ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 River, a minor tributary upstream of Jasper. This plant has a total capacity of 1.4 megawatts operating at a head of 152 metres. Reach B from Hinton to Vega just above the mouth of the Pembina has a fall of approximately 380 metres. This reach was given a cursory examination many years ago by the Commission of Conservation Canada and private consultants but was not considered attractive for early development. Early in the 1950's the same area was given another preliminary examination by the Alberta Power Commission and Calgary Power Ltd., and again was discarded due to the magnitude of the possible developments and the topographical and geological problems. The Alberta Water Resources Division has also examined this reach from Hinton to the mouth of the Berland River. Some potential should be placed on the sites within the reach but even with multi-purpose use the developments do not appear very attractive at this time. The confluence of both the Berland and McLeod Rivers with the Athabasca occurs in reach B. The Berland is a relatively low flow tributary and foundation examination, although preliminary, indicates difficult construction problems. The average flow is approximately 43 m3/s and the amount of the potential energy is not significant in terms of present energy requirements. The McLeod River, with an average flow of 53 m3/s, may have slightly more potential. Reach C from Vega to Fort McMurray, has a fall of approximately 365 metres in 600 km and appears to be the most attractive reach from the standpoint of power development. Sites have been located in the past and one has had preliminary drilling. This section may also benefit from the large storage at Lesser Slave Lake, which discharges into the main river through the Lesser Slave River above the most upstream site in the reach. It appears that storage created by the Mirror site (see Figure 5) would drown out any sites on the Lesser Slave River. In 1975, a study of the Crooked Rapids site examined the feasibility of dam heights of 165 metres and 78 metres. Because of the geological problems of this site, the technical feasibility of a high dam could not be established and the overall costs of the lower dam and power facilities were judged to be excessive at that time. Since that time, ice-jamming problems at Fort McMurray have prompted the investigation of means of alleviating those problems. Such studies suggest that some benefits other than hydro power may accrue to a Crooked Rapids development. These benefits, however, would be relatively minor and would not substantially improve the feasibility of this project. Alternative means of alleviating ice-jamming problems include a small ice control structure upstream of Fort McMurray. A small power plant could be associated with this structure if built. The development of such a power plant, of possibly 30 megawatt size, has not been evaluated. Other tributaries such as the Calling and the Lac La Biche Rivers are too small to be considered for development. Reach D of the river from Fort McMurray to Lake Athabasca, with a gradual fall of approximately 30 metres in 290 km, has a lack of developable sites and is used for navigation. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 11 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 4.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS The hydroelectric energy potentials of the Athabasca River basin along with the basic data from which they are determined are shown in Table 1. The drainage area of each reach, tributary or site was measured from the National Topographic Series maps at a scale of 1:500,000. The average flow is estimated from the best available stream flow data obtained from Water Survey of Canada. These data are plotted versus the applicable drainage areas in Figure 7. Data was used from the six gauging stations on the main stem of the Athabasca River, at Jasper, near Windfall, at Athabasca, below Fort McMurray, at Entrance and at Hinton. Records from other stations on the Athabasca River were disregarded because of their sparse data. The station at Athabasca has 94 years of records and the long term average flow value there should be close to true average. Most other stations have somewhat shorter records. The Berland, McLeod and Pembina River tributaries rise in the same area, drain similar topographic regions and are under similar climatic conditions, and therefore, similar relationships based on gauging data or inferred data are established for these rivers in Figure 7. The Clearwater River is a low-profile river which rises in a non-mountainous area and has different characteristics than the other major tributaries in the basin. The gauging station at Draper has relatively long and continuous records and the data from the station above Christina River was adjusted against that from Draper to give continuous records. A regression was completed using this data to represent the average flow - drainage area relationship for the Clearwater River. The gross head for each reach, or tributary or site is taken from the profile given in Figure 6. The TMHE (Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy) is calculated from the average flow and the applicable gross head using equation 1. The UDHE (Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential) for each reach of the main river and each major tributary is derived by the application of broad judgment and a "development factor" as shown. Reach A, from the headwater to Hinton is almost entirely situated inside the boundary of the Jasper National Park and past investigations did not reveal any attractive sites. Therefore, only a small portion of the hydro energy potential in this reach of the river was considered developable in the foreseeable future. Reach D, between Ft. McMurray and Lake Athabasca was also considered developable for only a small portion because of the flat gradient, low banks, wide valley and the potential interference with recovery of bitumen from the oil sands in the reach. The UDHE is accompanied by estimates of the equivalent plant installed capacities at four arbitrarily assumed capacity factors. The DHE (Developed Hydroelectric Energy) is the minor development on the Astoria River. This plant will not affect, or be affected by, any future hydro development in the basin. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 12 © Hatch 2010/02 1000.0 6 Athabasca River 5 2 4 3 1 17 Average Flow (cms) 100.0 10 Berland 7 River 9 8 16 Clearwater River 14 11 Pembina River 13 15 10.0 12 McLeod River 1.0 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. Athabasca River near Jasper 07AA002 2. Athabasca River at Entrance 07AD001 3. Athabasca River at Hinton 07AD002 4. Athabasca River near Windfall 07AE001 5. Athabasca River at Athabasca 07BE001 6. Athabasca River below McMurray 07DA001 7. Berland River near the mouth 07AC007 8. McLeod River Above Embarras River 07AF002 9. McLeod River near Wolf Creek 07AG001 10. McLeod River near Whitecourt 07AG004 11. McLeod River near Rosevear 07AG007 12. McLeod River near Cadomin 07AF013 13. Pembina River near Entwistle 07BB002 14. Pembina River at Jarvie 07BC002 15. Pembina River below Paddy Creek 07BA001 16. Clearwater River Above Christina River 7CD005 17. Clearwater River at Draper 07CD001 FIGURE 7 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 The RDHE-I (Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites) is calculated in the same manner as the UDHE from equation 1. The RDHE-U (Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites) is simply the difference between the UDHE and the sum of the DHE and the RDHE-I for each reach, or tributary into each reach of the river. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 13 © Hatch 2010/02 Table 1 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Athabasca River Basin UDHE TMHE CHARACTERISTICS DHE DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY AREA FLOW HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF 3 (m) (GWh) % (GWh) 20 40 60 80 3,510 4% 140 80 40 27 20 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 ATHABASCA RIVER REACH A - HEADWATER TO HINTON 0 - 10,100 0 - 165 ASTORIA PLANT REACH B - HINTON TO VEGA 555 152 7 165 - 314 378 OLDMAN SITE 11,100 173 79 820 470 230 160 120 IMAGE ROCK SITE 11,900 179 49 530 300 150 100 80 0-3000 0 - 23 425 LABYRINTH SITE 1,400 11 65 40 20 10 10 10 PINTO CREEK SITE 2,600 20 48 60 30 20 10 10 0 - 5,700 0 - 43 674 5,400 41 46 0 - 9,800 0 - 53 802 MCLEOD VALLEY SITE 8,000 45 46 120 70 30 20 20 MCLEOD SITE 9,300 51 46 140 80 40 30 20 REACH C-VEGA TO FT. MCMURRAY 35,700 - 125,000 314 - 595 366 MOOSE PORTAGE SITE 72,000 449 60 1,620 920 460 310 230 MIRROR SITE 75,100 458 72 1,990 1,140 570 380 280 PELICAN RAPID SITE 82,900 482 76 2,210 1,260 630 420 320 GRAND RAPIDS SITE 86,000 491 60 1,770 1,010 510 340 250 BRULE POINT SITE 88,000 497 84 2,510 1,430 720 480 360 CROOKED RAPIDS SITE 90,600 505 76 2,310 1,320 660 440 330 MOBERLY RAPIDS SITE 102,300 521 37 1,160 660 330 220 170 0 - 14,200 0 -34 942 4,400 20 61 14,000 - 31,600 64 - 121 64 14,200 65 15 125,000 - 153,800 595 - 661 34 0 - 153,800 0 - 661 BERLAND RIVER BERLAND SITE MCLEOD RIVER PEMBINA RIVER PEMBINA SITE CLEANWATER RIVER WHITEMUD FALLS SITE REACH D-FT. MCMURRAY TO LAKE ATHABASCA TOTAL OF THE ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 310 850 50% 2,850 40% 120 40% 1,630 70 340 810 30 190 540 20 100 410 20 60 50 110 1,450 10,270 1,250 40% 80% 40% 580 8,220 500 330 4,690 290 170 2,350 140 110 1,560 100 30% 110 60 30 20 24,970 15% 30 20 70 40 20 10 110 50 40 30 13,050 7,450 3,720 2,477 1,870 7 55% 30 20 1,500 860 430 290 210 20 10 10 0 0 230 130 70 40 30 320 180 90 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 430 250 120 80 60 50 30 10 10 10 190 110 50 40 30 2,873 1,650 820 550 410 10 20 190 40 20 1,170 60 1,280 60 80 70 360 80 1 10,100 - 35,700 WILDHAY RIVER 5,690 55% 133 1 9,620 30 8,840 20 4,430 10 2,960 10 2,240 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 5. THE CHURCHILL RIVER BASIN 5.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION One of the headwater tributaries of the Churchill River is the Beaver River which has its source in the Cretaceous plateau, south of Lac La Biche, Alberta. It flows eastward for 370 km and then northward 140 km, emptying into the south end of Ile a la Crosse Lake in the Province of Saskatchewan. In the river section lying within the Province of Alberta there are a number of small lakes and river banks are low. The average flow of the river at Cold Lake reserve is approximately 19 m3/s. There appears to be no developable potential as both the river gradient and flow are quite low. Figures 8 and 9 show the plan and profile of the river basin and Figure 10 shows the average flow versus the drainage area relationship. 5.2 ENERGY POTENTIALS Since there is no developable potential for the Churchill River basin, only the theoretical potentials along with their basic data are shown in Table 2. As in the case of tributaries to the larger rivers, some hydro potential could be developed as a secondary benefit if development mainly for other purposes were to occur. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 14 © Hatch 2010/02 AN SASKATCHEW Beaver Crossing Beaver River 0 12.5 25 50 75 100 km CHURCHILL RIVER BASIN FIGURE 8 1000.0 Average Flow (cms) 100.0 2 3 Beaver River 10.0 1 1.0 1000 10000 100000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. Beaver River near Goodridge - 06AA001 2. Beaver River near Dorintosh - 06AD001 3. Beaver River at Cold Lake Reserve - 06AD006 FIGURE 10 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP BEAVER RIVER (CHURCHILL RIVER BASIN) Table 2 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Churchill River Basin CHARACTERISTICS DHE UDHE TMHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 BEAVER RIVER BEAVER RIVER TOTAL OF THE BEAVER RIVER BASIN 0 - 15,300 0 - 16 0 - 15,300 0 - 16 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 79 40 40 0% Nil 0 Nil 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 6. THE HAY RIVER BASIN 6.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Hay River has its source north of the Clear Hills in the north western corner of Alberta. The stream flows west and crosses the (Alberta-British Columbia boundary, continues a distance of some 140 km in B.C. and returns to Alberta, flowing east through Zama and Hay Lakes. It then joins with its tributary, the Chinchaga River which rises just east of the British Columbia boundary. The Hay River then flows north to cross the Alberta-Northwest Territories boundary. Throughout its length in both Alberta and B.C., the Hay River has low banks limiting storage potential. The gorge for which power potential was earlier considered is within the Northwest Territories and therefore is not listed as a part of Alberta's power potential. The estimated average flow of the river just above the Meander River is 76 m3/s. Because of the low flow, lack of storage sites and the remoteness of the area, the energy potential of the Hay River considered developable in the foreseeable future was estimated to be small. The plan and profile of the river basin are shown in Figures 11 and 12. Figure13 shows the drainage area and average flow relationship. 6.2 ENERGY POTENTIALS As there is only minor developable potential for the Hay River basin, the theoretical and developable potentials along with their basic data are shown in Table 3. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 15 © Hatch 2010/02 LUMBIA BRITISH CO y Ha er Riv Ch inc ha go Riv er Zama Lake 0 12.5 25 50 75 100 km FIGURE 11 HAY RIVER BASIN Average Flow (cms) 1000.0 Hay 1 100.0 2 10.0 10000 100000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. Hay River near Hay River - 07OB001 2. Hay River near Meander River - 07OB003 FIGURE 13 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP HAY RIVER BASIN Table 3 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Hay River Basin CHARACTERISTICS DHE UDHE TMHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 HAY RIVER HAY RIVER TOTAL OF THE HAY RIVER BASIN 0 - 48,700 0 - 103 0 - 48,700 0 - 103 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 335 1,030 1,030 10% 100 60 30 20 10 100 60 30 20 10 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 60 30 20 10 100 60 30 20 10 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 7. THE MILK RIVER BASIN 7.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Milk River rises on the eastern slope of the foothills on the Blackfoot Indian Reserve in the state of Montana, U.S.A. Throughout its 260 km course in Canada, the Milk River flows through a well defined valley. The river receives a number of small tributary creeks along its course, all of which discharge a relatively large volume of water during the spring freshets. This flow usually ceases in July, and the streams have little discharge again until late in the fall, when several have a small flow for perhaps a month before freeze-up. The average flow of the river at the Town of Milk River is about 9 m3/s. The flow in the river is typical of all rivers which have a watershed devoid of tree growth; namely, it is subject to extreme floods during the spring runoff period and to correspondingly low flows during the summer months. The north branch of the Milk River is the conveyance stream for the United States share of water rights divided between Canada and the United States and affecting the Milk, St. Mary's, Waterton and Belly Rivers. The water of the Milk River, Belly River and the other treaty river diversions is for irrigation purposes, and is used in the summer months. Because of this use, as well as physical problems of terrain, the river is not considered suitable for hydroelectric energy generation. Figures 14, 15 and 16 show the plan, profiles and the average flow and drainage area relationship of the river. 7.2 ENERGY POTENTIALS Since there is no developable potential tor the Milk River basin, only the theoretical potentials along with their basic data are shown in Table 4. It is recognized that, should a storage reservoir be built in the basin, some of the potential could be developed as a conservation measure. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 16 © Hatch 2010/02 SASKATCHEWAN Milk River Milk Riv er MONTANA 0 12.5 25 50 75 100 km FIGURE 14 MILK RIVER BASIN Average Flow (cms) 100.0 3 1 10.0 Milk River 2 1.0 100 1000 10000 100000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. Milk River at Milk River- 11AA005 2. Milk River at Western Crossing of International Boundary - 11AA025 3. Milk River at Eastern Crossing of International Boundary - 11AA031 FIGURE 16 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP MILK RIVER BASIN Table 4 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Milk River Basin CHARACTERISTICS UDHE TMHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 MILK RIVER MILK RIVER TOTAL OF THE MILK RIVER BASIN 1,000 - 6,700 3 - 10 1,000 - 6,700 3 - 10 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 343 140 140 0% Nil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 80 40 30 20 140 80 40 30 20 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 8. THE NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN 8.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The North Saskatchewan River has its source in the Rocky Mountains near Mt. Athabasca at the head of the north branch. What might be considered a secondary source is the Freshfield glacier located in the Howse Pass at the head of the middle branch. Between the junction of the north and middle branches and the Kootenay Plains immediately above the Big Horn reservoir, the North Saskatchewan flows in a north-east and easterly direction. The Siffleur and Mistaya Rivers and a number of creeks enter the North Saskatchewan above the Kootenay Plains. The major tributaries, namely the Ram, Clearwater and Brazeau Rivers rise near the British Columbia border and enter the main stem of the river as it leaves the foothills area and enters the Interior Plains formation. Between the upper reaches of the river and a point below its confluence with Shunda Creek is a region lying within the geological formation known as the Cordillera. This portion of the river through the Rocky Mountains and foothills region has low banks crossed at intervals with rocky ridges and is considered to have reasonably good foundation conditions. The river gradient is quite even through this section, supporting a swift flow with a wide channel and forming islands or gravel bars at different locations. There are anomalies to these conditions, however, such as the gorge at Bighorn and the deep section at Saskatchewan Gap. After leaving the foothills area, the river flows through the Interior Plains formation called the Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous. Through these formations to where it meets the Alberta-Saskatchewan border, the river flows in a deep, clearly defined valley. The average flow of the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton is about 210 m3/s. The maximum monthly recorded flow is 1,210 m3/s and the minimum 16 m3/s. The Clearwater River near Rocky Mountain House has an average flow of 25 m3/s. There are some lakes in the upper reaches of the river and its tributaries, but these do not provide sufficient control to regulate flows. Floods which occur occasionally in the latter part of June and early July are caused by heavy rain in the drainage basin east of the mountains and may be intensified if coincident with warm weather. Figures 17 and 18 show the plan and profile of the river basin. 8.2 INVESTIGATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT For the purpose of this appraisal, the river is divided into three reaches, starting with Reach A from its headwaters to Rocky Mountain House. This reach includes the tributaries of the Ram and Clearwater Rivers. Reach B extends from Rocky Mountain House to Edmonton and includes the Brazeau River tributary. Reach C extends from Edmonton eastward to the Saskatchewan border. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 17 © Hatch 2010/02 Cardinal Site Izaak Site Olympus Site Big Horn Plant Elk Site Shunda Site Rocky Mountain House Site Gap Site Phoenix Site No rth Whirlpool Site Chambers Creek Site Rocky Mountain House Sa sk at c Ra he m wa Ri n R ve iv r er Job Site Ri ve r u Brazea River Drayton Valley Site Rocky Rapids Site Ramparts Site Big Bend Plant Ramparts Site Ba ttl e Frontal Site Thistle Site Race Site Sa sk a Lloydminster Strike Site Thunder Site No rt h Edmonton Carvel Site SASKATCHEWAN tc he wa n Ri ve r Hairy Hill Site Lower Ram Site Ram Forks Site Clearwater Gap Site r ive r R e t a arw Cle Lower Canyon Site Middle Canyon Site Upper Canyon Site 0 25 50 100 150 200 km NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN FIGURE 17 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 To meet the dual purposes of generating hydroelectric energy and increasing the low winter flow of the North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton and downstream, an intensive search of possible storage sites on the North Saskatchewan River and tributaries in Reach A and Reach B was carried out by Calgary Power Ltd. (currently known as TransAlta) during the 1950's. The most attractive topographic site in Reach A is the Bighorn on the main stem of the river above Nordegg. However, the presence of a deep pervious river bed made development of this site impractical in terms of the technology available in the late 1950's. Attention was then concentrated on a site in Reach B termed the Brazeau site which was located some 25 miles upstream from the Brazeau's confluence with the North Saskatchewan River. This site was later developed jointly by the Provincial Government and Calgary Power Ltd. The dam was completed in 1963 and the first generating unit was installed at the Big Bend power plant in 1965. Concurrent with construction of the Brazeau project, further studies were made of the upper Brazeau River and of neighbouring streams, such as the Blackstone, Nordegg and Pembina Rivers. Several attractive dam sites exist on the upper reaches of the Brazeau. However, none of these studies progressed beyond a very preliminary stage, all being abandoned when sufficient information was presented to show them to be uneconomical at that time. At the same time investigation of the main stem continued but no site was found more attractive than the Bighorn site. Successful development of slurry trench methods for dealing with deep permeable foundations during the early 1960's encouraged Calgary Power Ltd. and the Provincial Government to review the Bighorn site. After detailed studies, a joint development agreement was reached between the two concerned parties and the Bighorn project was completed in late 1972. Only one potential dam site was located in Reach C, near Hairy Hill about 160 km east of Edmonton, and this was investigated for purposes other than hydroelectric energy. The existing plants and identified sites in the North Saskatchewan River basin are shown in Figures 17 and 18. The storage and power developments at Bighorn and Brazeau have benefitted the City of Edmonton in terms of water supply and sewage disposal. Generation of electric energy by means of thermal plants in Edmonton has been aided by the increased flow and the refineries and chemical plants in the industrial area east of Edmonton have also benefitted. 8.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS The hydroelectric energy potentials of the North Saskatchewan River basin along with their basic data are shown in Table 5. The explanatory discussions of the table are presented in Section 4, the Athabasca River basin. Figure 19 shows the average flow and drainage area relationship for the main river and the three major tributaries including the recording stations from which the relationships are derived. Gauging stations on the lower reach of the North Saskatchewan River indicate a different ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 18 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 average flow and drainage area relationship than the upper reach, which accounts for the flattening of the upper slope of the line from points 6 to 9. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 19 © Hatch 2010/02 1000.0 North Saskatchewan River 6 7 9 8 3 100.0 4 5 Average Flow (cms) 2 1 10 11 12 13 Brazeau River Clearwater River 14 15 10.0 Ram River 1.0 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. North Saskatchewan River at Saskatchewan Crossing - 05DA006 2. North Saskatchewan River at Whirlpool Point - 05DA009 3. North Saskatchewan River near Rocky Mountain House - 05DC001 4. North Saskatchewan River at Saunders - 05DC002 5. North Saskatchewan River below Bighorn Plant - 05DC010 6. North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton - 05DF001 7. North Saskatchewan River at Lea Park - 05EF003 8. North Saskatchewan River near Deer Creek - 05EF001 9. North Saskatchewan River at Prince Albert - 05GG001 10. Brazeau Riverbelow Big Bend (Brazeau) Plant - 05DD005 11. Brazeau River below Cardinal River - 05DD007 12. Clearwater River near Rocky Mountain House - 05DB001 13. Clearwater River above Limestone Creek - 05DB003 14. Clearwater River near Dovercourt - 05DB006 15. Ram River near the Mouth - 05DC006 FIGURE 19 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN Table 5 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the North Saskatchewan River Basin CHARACTERISTICS TMHE UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER REACH A- HEADWATER TO ROCKY MTN. HOUSE 0 - 10,900 0 - 127 869 WHIRLPOOL SITE 1,920 51 15 BIGHORN PLANT 2,500 60 95 GAP SITE 4,400 79 SHUNDA SITE 4,900 PHOENIX SITE 4,240 60% 2,540 1,450 720 480 360 50 30 10 10 10 79 380 220 110 70 50 83 26 130 70 40 20 20 7,200 102 82 500 290 140 100 70 CHAMBERS CREEK SITE 7,500 104 31 190 110 50 40 30 ROCKY MTN. HOUSE SITE 10,900 127 43 330 190 90 60 50 0 - 1,800 0 - 15 UPPER CANYON SITE 650 5 91 30 20 10 10 0 MIDDLE CANYON SITE 780 6 58 20 10 10 0 0 LOWER CANYON SITE 780 6 61 20 10 10 0 0 RAM FORKS SITE 1,550 12 91 70 40 20 10 10 LOWER RAM SITE 1,810 15 64 60 30 20 10 10 0 - 3,370 0 - 25 CLEARWATER GAP SITE 1,320 14 50 REACH B-ROCKY MTN. HOUSE TO EDMONTON 10,900 - 28,000 127 - 208 347 RAMPARTS SITE 12,900 139 69 580 330 170 110 80 BRAZEAU FORKS SITE 20,200 175 38 400 230 110 80 60 ROCKY RAPIDS SITE 21,150 179 42 450 260 130 90 60 DRAYTON VALLEY SITE 21,800 182 64 700 400 200 130 100 CARVEL SITE 24,900 196 67 790 450 230 150 110 0 - 7,000 0 - 58 1170 OLYMPUS SITE 780 21 114 150 90 40 30 20 JOB SITE 900 23 37 50 30 10 10 10 IZZAK SITE 1,290 27 64 100 60 30 20 10 RACE SITE 1,680 30 34 60 30 20 10 10 THISTLE SITE 1,810 31 76 140 80 40 30 20 THUNDER SITE 2,070 33 110 220 130 60 40 30 CARDINAL SITE 2,460 36 52 110 60 30 20 20 STRIKE SITE 2,720 38 61 140 80 40 30 20 FRONTAL SITE 2,850 38 43 100 60 30 20 10 ELK SITE 4,530 47 46 130 70 40 20 20 BIG BEND PLANT 6,800 56 126 RAM RIVER CLEARWATER RIVER BRAZEAU RIVER 1234 1173 408 560 1,070 60% 60% 340 640 190 370 100 180 60 120 39% 2,640 60% 60% 2,130 1,580 1,220 900 610 450 410 300 50 90 20 10 10 230 13% 160 110 80 140 80 40 30 20 600 340 170 110 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 300 397 320 120 40 3,550 552 355 Table 5 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the North Saskatchewan River Basin CHARACTERISTICS TMHE UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km REACH C-EDMONTON TO SASK. BORDER HAIRY HILL SITE TOTAL - NORTH SASKATCHEWAN BASIN (m /s) 28,000 - 56,500 208 - 223 113 42,200 218 61 0 - 56,500 0 - 223 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 1,480 13,540 70% 1,040 8,270 20 590 4,720 40 300 2,360 60 200 1,570 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 150 1,180 805 26% 475 800 460 230 150 110 6,290 3,860 1,930 1,280 950 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 240 140 70 50 30 1,532 880 440 300 220 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 9. THE PEACE RIVER BASIN 9.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Peace River is formed by the confluence of the Parsnip and Findlay Rivers, both of which rise in and drain a large district lying along the eastern slope of the Rocky Mountains in northern British Columbia. Major tributaries of the Peace River in Alberta include the Smoky River and the Wabasca River. The Smoky River rises in the Rocky Mountain area near Mt. Robson, gathers the runoff from the northern part of the Alberta Rocky Mountains, flows in a general northerly direction for a distance of 560 km and joins the Peace River about 3 km upstream of the Town of Peace River. The Wabasca (sometimes referred to as the Wabiskaw) drains the central interior of northern Alberta and joins the Peace River east of Fort Vermilion. From the British Columbia-Alberta border to the Town of Peace River, the Peace flows in a valley up to 270 metres deep, carved in highly-plastic, sandy, silty, clay shales of relatively low strength. Downstream of Peace River town, the river turns northward, cutting a winding valley or gorge roughly a mile wide which diminishes in depth from about 210 metres near Peace River to about 90 metres near Paddle Prairie. Beyond this gorge, the valley widens, the banks fall away and the river gradient flattens. At Vermilion Chutes, the river cuts through an anticlinal exposure of limestone to create a local head concentration of about 9 metres in a horizontal distance of approximately 2 km. The river valley is deeply in filled with sands and gravel. The valley of the Smoky River generally is steep-sided and fairly narrow with its middle and lower reaches varying from 180 to 120 metres deep. The Wabasca River traverses a much flatter terrain and its drainage course is less well defined because it passes through muskeg areas and contains numerous small lakes and potholes. The average flow of the Peace River at the town of Peace River is about 1,830 m3/s. The recorded flow at the same location shows a maximum monthly flow of 10,400 m3/s and minimum monthly flow of 200 m3/s. Its major tributary, the Smoky River has an average flow at Watino of about 342 m3/s, and has recorded a monthly minimum flow of 22 m3/s. The Wapiti, Kakwa and Little Smoky Rivers are tributaries of the Smoky River and their average flows are 95 m3/s, 43 m3/s and 47 m3/s respectively. They have been included in this inventory because of the relative size of their flows. Figures 20 and 21 show the plan and profile of the river basin. 9.2 INVESTIGATIONS The completion of the Portage Mountain Development (W.A.C Bennett) in British Columbia has made Peace River flows downstream much more uniform by storing surplus summer flows for release during the winter low flow period. In view of this, Calgary Power Ltd., Canadian Utilities, Limited (parent of Alberta Power Limited) and the Alberta Water Resource Division jointly carried out a reconnaissance survey of the Peace River in Alberta and a preliminary topographic and ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 20 © Hatch 2010/02 ac Pe Fort Vermillion i ve e R r Lake Claire Vermillion Chutes Site Peace River Gorge Site Wadlin Lake Site Muddy River Site Mile 251 Site W ab as ca Ri ve r BRITISH COLUMB IA Mile 232 Site e Peac Rive r Peace River Dunvegan Peace River Site Dunvegan Site Sm y ok Ri r ve 19th Baseline Site Watino Site Grand Prarie Meander Site r Wapiti Rive Wapiti Site 18th Baseline Site Cutbank Site Kakwa Site Kakwa Sm Bolton Site R iver ok y Ri Smoky Little r ve R iver Sulphur Site 0 25 50 100 150 FIGURE 20 200 km PEACE RIVER BASIN Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 foundation investigation of the most attractive site near Dunvegan in the late 1970’s. Reach A from the British Columbia border to Dunvegan has a total elevation drop of 41 metres which could be completely developed at this site. A detailed government study of the Dunvegan site, completed in 1977, found this site to be developable but the site was not developed further at that time. Recently a low head run of river development has been proposed at this site and it has been licensed by Glacier Power for the development of this site. Construction had not begun on this development. Reach B from Dunvegan to the Town of Peace River would appear to lack suitable dam site locations because of the presence of weak and highly unstable Shaftesbury shale in the river banks. Reach C from the Town of Peace River to Vermilion Chutes has a total fall of 52 metres in the gorge section which could be developed at one or two sites. Various schemes to develop the 9 metre drop at Vermilion Chutes were examined for Alberta Power Limited (currently known as ATCO Power) and were not economic. Reach D from the Vermilion Chutes to the mouth of the Peace where it enters the Slave River has a flat gradient and low banks, which, combined with the presence of Wood Buffalo National Park, makes any development in this reach very impractical. Studies carried out in the 1960's for Alberta Power Limited revealed that a large portion of the potential on the Smoky River could be developed by sites as shown in Figures 20 and 21. However, the Alberta Resources Railway and the pulp mill located near Grande Prairie may influence the location of one or more of these sites. In the same period, two sites were noted on the Wabasca River from the reconnaissance survey made for Alberta Power Limited. 9.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS The hydroelectric energy potentials of the Peace River basin along with their basic data are shown in Table 6. General explanatory discussions for the Athabasca River basin are also applicable to this basin. Figure 22 is derived from the records of gauging stations as shown. It is interesting to note that there are schemes which, if implemented, could have a beneficial effect on hydro potentials of the Peace River. A project called the "McGregor Diversion" would divert a flow of 217 m3/s from the Fraser River into the Peace River was considered in the 1970’s. This project has been shelved for environmental reasons. Also, an additional hydro plant called “Site C” has been and is currently being re-considered on the Peace River in British Columbia downstream from the W.A.C. Bennett Dam. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 21 © Hatch 2010/02 10000 7 2 1 Average Flow (cms) 6 4 3 1000 5 8 Peace River 10 Smoky River 100 11 9 15 Wapiti River 12 16 14 18 Wabasca River 17 13 Little Smoky River 10 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Drainage Area (km2) 1. Peace River at Hudson Hope 07EF001 2. Peace River near Taylor 07FD002 3. Peace River at Dunvegan Bridge 07FD003 4. Peace River at Peace River 07HA001 5. Peace River at Fort Vermilion 07HF001 6. Peace River at Peace Point 07KC001 7. Peace River near Carcajou 07HD001 8. Peace River above Acles River 07HD010 9. Smoky River above Hells Creek 07GA001 10. Smoky River at Watino 07GJ001 11. Wapiti River near Grande Prarie 07GE001 12. Wapiti River above Mistanusk Creek 07GC001 13. Little Smoky River at Little Smoky 07GG002 14. Little Smoky River near Guy 07GH002 15. Wabasca River above Junction Peace River 07JD001 16. Wabasca River at Highway 88 07JD002 17. Wabasca River below Trout River 07JB002 18. Kakwa River near Grande Prarie 07GB002 FIGURE 22 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP PEACE RIVER BASIN Table 6 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Peace River Basin TMHE CHARACTERISTICS UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 PEACE RIVER REACH A-B.C. BORDER TO DUNVEGAN 118,600 - 130,000 1474-1540 41 DUNVEGAN SITE 130,000 1,540 7 REACH B-DUNVEGAN TO PEACE RIVER 130,000 - 186,500 1540 - 1828 29 2,940 50% 1,470 840 420 280 0 - 51,800 0 - 348 1122 14,640 50% 7,320 4,180 2,090 1,390 SULPHUR SITE 2,900 67 76 310 180 90 60 40 BOLTON SITE 6,200 103 76 470 270 130 90 70 KAKWA SITE 10,900 142 152 1,300 740 370 250 190 CUTBANK SITE 12,200 152 75 690 390 200 130 100 18th BASELINE SITE 12,700 156 91 850 490 240 160 120 WAPITI SITE 28,700 248 69 1,030 590 290 200 150 MEANDER SITE 34,200 275 85 1,410 800 400 270 200 19th BASELINE SITE 34,200 275 87 1,440 820 410 270 210 WATINO SITE 37,000 287 75 1,290 740 370 250 180 PEACE RIVER SITE 51,500 347 53 1,110 630 320 210 160 KAKWA RIVER 520 - 3,630 11 - 31 701 890 50% 450 260 130 90 WAPITI RIVER 7,510 - 15,000 75 - 113 277 1,570 50% 790 450 230 0 - 13,200 0 - 54 1021 1,720 50% 860 490 186,500 - 277,100 1828 - 2208 81 9,830 60% 5,900 3,370 MILE 232 197,000 1,880 40 4,520 2,580 1,290 860 640 MILE 251 206,500 1,920 44 5,080 2,900 1,450 970 720 PEACE RIVER GORGE SITE 218,300 1,970 52 6,160 3,520 1,760 1,170 880 VERMILION CHUTES SITE 277,100 2,200 9 1,190 680 340 230 170 0 - 40,700 0 - 72 488 MUDDY RIVER SITE 35,200 60 73 260 150 70 50 40 WADLIN LAKE SITE 36,800 64 52 200 110 60 40 30 REACH D-VERMILION CHUTES TO MOUTH 277,100 - 297,000 2208 - 2282 24 SMOKY RIVER LITTLE SMOKY RIVER REACH C-PEACE RIVER TO VERMILION CHUTES WABASCA RIVER TOTAL OF THE PEACE RIVER BASIN 118,600 - 297,000 1474 - 2282 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 3,720 60% 2,230 1,270 640 420 320 1,580 900 450 300 230 210 1,470 840 420 280 210 1,040 0 0 0 0 0 60 450 260 130 90 60 150 110 790 450 230 150 110 250 160 120 860 490 250 160 120 1,680 1,120 840 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 320 180 90 60 50 5,470 3,120 1,570 1,040 780 650 940 3,240 39,490 40% 10% 380 320 220 110 70 370 190 120 90 50 180 90 60 50 19,720 11,260 5,640 3,740 2,800 0 0% 0 16,100 15,960 7,980 5,330 3,990 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 10. THE RED DEER RIVER BASIN 10.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Red Deer River is a tributary of the South Saskatchewan River. It joins the main stem within the Province of Saskatchewan and, for the purposes of this appraisal, is treated as an independent basin. Rising in the Sawback Range of the Rocky Mountains, the Red Deer River flows easterly and north easterly until it reaches the City of Red Deer. At this point it turns south easterly and joins the South Saskatchewan River east of the Alberta boundary near Empress. The drainage basin of this river differs from most Alberta streams in that its foothill region is fairly extensive, whereas the mountainous area is relatively small. This is due to the fact that the Bow and the North Saskatchewan Rivers have a common divide west of the Red Deer River, and thus cut off its drainage from the main range of the Rocky Mountains. The average flow of the river at the City of Red Deer is about 50 m3/s. The plan, profiles and the average flow and drainage area relationship are shown in Figures 23, 24 and 25 respectively. 10.2 ENERGY POTENTIALS Because of the relatively low flow and other uses for the water in the area, the development of hydroelectric energy in the basin is unlikely except in conjunction with development for other purposes such as what has occurred at Dickson Dam. Although the hydroelectric potential of that site was examined and development appeared feasible the government did not construct a power plant initially but rather made the necessary provisions in the design to facilitate later addition of a power plant. The hydroelectric power plant was developed later by a private developer in the 1990’s. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 22 © Hatch 2010/02 Ardley Site Dickson Dam Plant Red Deer Raven Site Red Site #9 Sundre Dee ver r Ri Site #11 Drumheller SASKATCHEWAN 0 25 50 100 150 200 km RED DEER RIVER BASIN FIGURE 23 100.0 6 4 5 Average Flow (cms) 3 Red Deer River 1 2 10.0 1000 10000 100000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Red Deer River near Sundre - 05CA001 Red Deer River below Burnt Timber Creek - 05CA009 Red Deer River at Red Deer - 05CC002 Red Deer River at Drumheller - 05CE001 Red Deer River near Blindloss - 05CK004 Red Deer River near Empress - 05CK002 FIGURE 25 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP RED DEER RIVER BASIN Table 7 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Red Deer River Basin CHARACTERISTICS TMHE UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 RED DEER RIVER RED DEER RIVER 0 - 45,100 0-65 SITE #11 2,245 23 47 70 40 20 10 10 SITE #9 2,490 24 49 70 40 20 10 10 RAVEN SITE 5,300 31 22 40 20 10 10 10 DICKSON DAM PLANT 5,600 32 32 ARDLEY SITE 15,000 45 53 140 80 40 30 20 0 - 45,100 0-65 320 180 90 60 50 TOTAL OF THE RED DEER RIVER BASIN Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 1244 3,440 10% 340 190 100 60 50 70 3,440 340 190 100 60 50 70 53% 53% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 11. THE SLAVE RIVER BASIN 11.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The Slave River is formed where the Peace meets the Riviere des Rochers, the outlet of Lake Athabasca. The Slave River terminates upon flowing into Great Slave Lake and is known thereafter as the MacKenzie River. The Slave flows slightly west of north, with a total length of approximately 460 km. For nearly 160 km below Lake Athabasca it is easily navigable, but it then enters a series of rapids generally known as the Smith Rapids. These rapids are caused by the outcrop of the Canadian Shield. The average flow of the Slave River at Fitzgerald is about 3,440 m3/s which is by far the largest flow of all rivers in Alberta. The annual and seasonal variations of flow of the river are relatively small as compared to all other rivers in the Province, due to the natural regulation provided by Lake Athabasca and the reservoir regulation by the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia. Figures 26 and 27 show the plan and profile of the Slave River basin. 11.2 INVESTIGATIONS The large hydro energy potential of the Slave River has been recognized for many years. Examination of this potential was made as early as 1923 by the Commission of Conservation Canada and the amount of potential energy was until recently somewhat in excess of Alberta's requirements. In 1950, the Consolidated Mining and Smelting Company examined the series of rapids between Fort Fitzgerald and Fort Smith as a source of power for its mining ventures. However, the amount of power required was small and development schemes involving the use of only a small part of the available flow were found uneconomic. As a result of the altering of water levels on the PeaceAthabasca Delta during the dry years immediately following construction of the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River in B.C., a study was made by Calgary Power Ltd. to determine whether the river could be developed in such a way as to help restore the ecology of the Delta, while at the same time providing electric energy to Alberta. This study was based on a site at Mountain Rapids and was updated in 1977. The site was again studied in the early 1980’s when the Alberta government undertook a more in depth investigation of the technical, economic, social, and environmental aspects of the development of Slave River hydro potential. These studies indicated that energy from a development may be somewhat more expensive than the energy from the coal-fired plants now in operation, but suggested factors which could change the comparison with coal-fired generation and also suggested additional benefits associated with developing this hydro potential. The site is again being considered by a TransCanada/ATCO Power recently. 11.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS The additional flow to the Slave River from local runoff between Lake Athabasca and the border between Alberta and the Northwest Territories is negligible as compared with large inflows from the Peace River and Lake Athabasca. Therefore, the average flow of 3,440 m3/s at Fitzgerald is used to compute energy potentials throughout the whole river inside Alberta. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 23 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 The Mountain Rapids and Alternative 4 sites are located within Alberta very close to the border of the Northwest Territories. It is considered practical to develop the total elevation drop of the river inside Alberta at this single site or a site just upstream of the border. The hydro and hydroelectric energy potentials of the Slave River along with their basic data are shown in Table 8. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 24 © Hatch 2010/02 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES Fitzgerald Alternative 4 Site 25 50 100 150 200 km AN SASKATCHEW At L a ha ke ba sc a Slave River 0 FIGURE 26 SLAVE RIVER BASIN Table 8 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the Slave River Basin CHARACTERISTICS UDHE TMHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 4,360 2,180 1,450 1,090 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 SLAVE RIVER SLAVE RIVER ALTERNATIVE 4 SITE TOTAL OF THE SLAVE RIVER BASIN 599,300 - 611,200 3,370 - 3,440 611,200 599,300 - 611,200 3,440 3,370 - 3,440 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 41 8,490 90% 7,640 35 8,490 7,640 4,360 2,180 1,450 1,090 0 0% 0 7,250 4,140 2,070 1,380 1,030 7,250 4,140 2,070 1,380 1,030 390 220 110 70 60 390 220 110 70 60 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 12. THE SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN 12.1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION The South Saskatchewan River originates at the confluence of the Bow and Oldman Rivers, about 70 km west of Medicine Hat. The Bow River is the smaller of the two branches. It rises in Bow Lake, north of the Kicking Horse Pass at an elevation of 1,900 metres above sea level and flows in a southerly direction until its junction with the Pipestone River near Lake Louise station, whence it flows easterly through Calgary to its confluence with the Oldman River. The Bow River has a number of tributaries which drain large tracts of mountain and foothill regions of the Cordillera lying to the north and south of the area drained by the main stream. In the Rocky Mountain region, the river is joined by the Pipestone and Cascade Rivers from the north, and the Spray and Kananaskis from the south. In the foothills region the tributaries are the Ghost River from the north and Jumpingpound Creek from the southwest. Although the Elbow and Highwood Rivers do not enter the Bow until it reaches the Interior Plains, they both rise in the Cordillera. One of the most noticeable characteristics of the Bow River drainage basin is the number of lakes on the main stream and its more westerly branches. The Bow and Hector Lakes are located on the main stem; Lake Louise is on the Louise Creek; Spray Lake on the Spray River; Lake Minnewanka on the Cascade River; and the two Kananaskis Lakes on the Kananaskis River. There are also innumerable small lakes on the above mentioned, as well as on other small streams. The average recorded flow of the Bow River at Calgary is about 90 m3/s. The recorded maximum and minimum monthly flows are 472 m3/s and 19 m3/s respectively. Three major irrigation canals have been constructed diverting water from the Bow River to serve an irrigable area to the east and southeast of Calgary. A firm regulated river flow is required between the months of May and September to serve the irrigated areas. The Oldman River is the larger of the two branches of the South Saskatchewan River. Formed between the Rocky Mountains and the Livingstone Range in the Cordillera area, it first flows south easterly until joined by the Crowsnest and Castle Rivers and then flows generally east to its junction with the Bow River. Several small tributaries join the main stream. Two of the larger ones are the Belly River with its tributary, the Waterton River, and the St. Mary River which is the conveyance river for the Canadian share of the Milk River. The territory drained by the Oldman River consists of mountains, foothills and prairies, and the geological formations called the Cordillera and Interior Plains. The mountain region is quite extensive and is divided into the Main Range and the Livingstone Range of the Rocky Mountains. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 25 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 The average recorded flow of the Oldman River near Lethbridge is about 82 m3/s, with recorded maximum and minimum monthly flows of 941 m3/s and 6 m3/s respectively. This stream and its tributaries are subject to high flows caused by the melting of accumulated snow in the upper reaches during the spring and summer months. Floods of exceptional magnitude may occur following very intensive rains. There is considerable development along the Oldman River and its tributaries serving several irrigation districts. The South Saskatchewan River flows in an easterly direction to Medicine Hat from the confluence of the Bow and the Oldman Rivers and then turns north eastwards flowing through a sparsely populated area to the Saskatchewan border near the Town of Empress. The plan and profile of the South Saskatchewan River basin are shown in Figures 28 and 29. 12.2 INVESTIGATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT Hydroelectric development on the Bow River started as early as 1896. The oldest plant still in operation is called the Horseshoe Plant, which was commissioned in 1911. There are now eleven plants, with an average annual energy output of 837 GWh, which are operated on the Bow River and its tributaries above the City of Calgary. Undeveloped portions of the Bow River above Calgary have been studied in detail and the remaining sites appear to be too small to be of interest at this time. Downstream from Calgary, hydroelectric development on the Bow would have a subsidiary role because of extensive irrigation development. A study was done on the Eyremore site on the Bow River near Brooks. The main purpose of a project at this site would be to improve the water supply to the Eastern Irrigation District which is currently supplied by water diverted from the Bow River at the Bassano Dam. A small powerhouse could be built at the Eyremore Site if the project were built. However, the site conditions and overall cost were not particularly favourable and no more detailed studies have been under taken since 1977. A more detailed study of the hydroelectric potential of the Bassano Dam was undertaken. This study compared the costs of a variety of conventional turbines to the costs of a Straflo turbine concept. The results of the study indicated that a powerhouse could be established at the Bassano Dam at reasonable cost, although very little water would be available for power generation during the summer because of increasing irrigation diversions. Upstream storage would provide ample flows during the remainder of the year. There are currently eight plants, with an average annual energy output of 331 GWh, which are operated on the Oldman River, its tributaries and irrigation canals. The stream flows available for hydroelectric developments on the Oldman River are very limited because of the irrigation development served by this river and its tributaries. Because of the relatively low flow and other uses for the water in the area, the development of hydroelectric energy in the basin is unlikely except in ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 26 © Hatch 2010/02 t an Pl aw te sp Si ar Be ow nb t le G an Pl st ite t S ho G e ll an Pl ss s Ru s k i nt n a Pl a na de Ka Ca a sc Da m le te Si Rapid Narrows Site Pocaterra Plant Interlakes Plant Ol dm an Gap Site Ri ve r Bo w Ri v er Riv er hewan Three Sisters Plant Eyremore Site So Fort Macleod Site Fort Macleod SASKATCHEWAN nt te Si Pla e or dn sho ite S Ra rse w te i t Ho l b o d S an E r Pl Fo er es e rri Ba c D S i t La rcs A Spray Plant Meridian Site Saskatc e or d ea nm Ca Calgary Rundle Plant Lethbridge uth Medicine Hat Chin Chute Oldman River Site Castle Site Irrican Hydro Plant Raymond Plant Oldman River Hydro Plant Taylor Chute Waterton Plant St. Mary's Plant Belly River Plant MONTANA 0 25 50 100 150 200 km SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN FIGURE 28 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 conjunction with development for other purposes such as what has occurred at Oldman Dam, Waterton Dam and St. Mary’s Dam. Although the hydroelectric potential of those sites were examined by the government, it did not construct any power plants initially but rather made the necessary provisions in the designs to facilitate later addition of a power plant. The hydroelectric power plants were developed later by private developers in the 1990’s. Several on-stream reservoir sites were investigated as part of a broad water resource study of the Oldman River basin, initiated in 1974 because of water supply problems in the heavily irrigated basin. The Oldman River Dam was constructed in the 1980’s to help address those concerns. A number of drop structures which have a substantial energy potential exist in the irrigation districts and six hydroelectric developments have been developed to take advantage of this potential. All of these projects have highly variable seasonal energy outputs. On the main stem of the South Saskatchewan, a site termed the Meridian Site could be developed to accommodate the total elevation drop between Medicine Hat and the border. However, Defence Research Board installations which border the river in the Suffield Experimental Station might limit the developable head to about 12 metres. For the purpose of appraising the hydro energy potential, the two tributaries, the Bow and Oldman Rivers and the South Saskatchewan River, have each been divided into two reaches. Reach A of the Bow River extends from its source to the City of Calgary. This reach includes all of the tributaries on which hydro developments have been constructed. Reach B of the Bow River extends from the City of Calgary to its confluence with the Oldman River. For the Oldman River, Reach A extends from its source to the City of Lethbridge. Reach B incorporates only a short length of river from Lethbridge to the confluence of the Oldman and Bow Rivers. Reach A of the South Saskatchewan River commences at its origin (the confluence of the Bow and the Oldman River) and extends to the City of Medicine Hat. Reach B commences at Medicine Hat and extends in a north easterly direction to intersect the Alberta-Saskatchewan border near the Town of Empress. The existing plants and identified sites in the South Saskatchewan River basin are shown in Figures 28 and 29. 12.3 ENERGY POTENTIALS The hydroelectric energy potentials of the South Saskatchewan River basin along with their basic data are shown in Table 9. The general explanatory discussions of previous sections are also applicable here. Unlike other large rivers in the Province, the flows of the South Saskatchewan River and its two branches have been highly regulated by existing development. Hydro development on ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 27 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 the Bow River has changed the pattern of the flow and irrigation development on the Bow and Oldman Rivers has not only changed the pattern of the flow but also the quantity of the flow. A portion of the diverted water used for irrigation will return to the river downstream, but most of it is lost to the atmosphere through plant evapotranspiration. Figure 30 is based on the actual recorded data at the Water Survey of Canada gauging records and the theoretical energy potentials are computed using these flows. It is estimated that the irrigation requirement from the Bow River below Calgary and the Oldman River below Lethbridge is approximately 50 percent of the total available flow. Consequently, a development factor of less than 50 percent was used in computing the total developable hydroelectric potential on the South Saskatchewan River system downstream from Calgary and Lethbridge. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 28 © Hatch 2010/02 1000.0 3 South Saskatchewan River 10 100.0 9 Average Flow (cms) 7 8 Bow River 15 6 11 18 4 1 2 5 12 19 17 16 Oldman River 13 10.0 14 1.0 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 Drainage Area (Km2) 1. South Saskatchewan River at Medicine Hat - 05AJ001 2. South Saskatchewan River at Highway 41 - 05AK001 3. South Saskatchewan River near Lemsford - 05HB001 4. South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoon - 05HG001 5. South Saskatchewan River at St. Louis - 05HH001 6. Bow River at Banff - 05BB001 7. Bow River near Seebe - 05BE004 8. Bow River at Calgary - 05BH004 9. Bow River below Bearspaw Dam - 05BH008 10. Bow River below Carseland Dam- 05BM002 11. Bow River Below Bassano Dam - 05BM004 12. Bow River near the Mouth - 05BN012 13. Oldman River near Waldron's Corner - 05AA023 14. Oldman River near Cowley - 05AA001 15. Oldman River near Brocket - 05AA024 16. Oldman River near Fort Macleod- 05AB007 17. Oldman River near Monarch - 05AD019 18. Oldman River near Lethbridge - 05AD007 19. Oldman River near the Mouth- 05AD006 FIGURE 30 AVERAGE FLOW - DRAINAGE AREA RELATIONSHIP SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN Table 9 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the South Saskatchewan River Basin CHARACTERISTICS TMHE UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 BOW RIVER REACH A-HEADWATER TO CALGARY LAC DES ARCS SITE 0 - 9,300 0 - 88 960 4,100 66 20 3,470 50% 1,740 990 500 330 250 KANANASKIS PLANT 22 94 56% 19 HORSESHOE PLANT 22 84 68% 14 RUSSELL SITE 5,400 84 GHOST PLANT 43 34 173 39% 80 50 20 20 10 220 130 60 40 30 6,700 86 20 100 60 30 20 10 GLENBOW SITE 7,800 87 30 160 90 50 30 20 CASCADE RIVER CASCADE PLANT 15 0 - 650 0 - 14 813 650 14 105 SPRAY RIVER DIVERSION 392 THREE SISTERS PLANT SPRAY PLANT RUNDLE PLANT KANANASKIS RIVER 0 - 950 0 - 19 70 340 40% 140 80 40 30 100% 250 140 70 50 16% 40 4 16% 3 274 210 23% 103 98 73 17% 50 800 20% 160 90 50 30 20 INTERLAKES PLANT 38 9 19% 5 POCATERRA PLANT 66 29 22% 15 BARRIER PLANT 46 40 35% 13 ELBOW RIVER 1060 730 0 - 1200 0 - 23 FORD SITE 345 8 49 20 10 10 0 0 ELBOW SITE 395 9 68 40 20 10 10 10 REACH B-CALGARY TO CONFLUENCE 9,300 - 25,900 88 - 96 335 DALEMEAD SITE 15,800 92 76 420 240 120 80 60 EYREMORE SITE 21,500 94 40 230 130 70 40 30 1,860 10% 20% 70 370 40 210 20 110 10 70 140 110 88 50 30 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 83 50 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 20 1405 220 17 20 52 250 47% 430 51 RADNOR SITE BEARSPAW PLANT 760 10 50 Table 9 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of the South Saskatchewan River Basin CHARACTERISTICS TMHE UDHE DHE ANNUAL DEVELOPMENT ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY HEAD ENERGY FACTOR ENERGY FACTOR OF (m) (GWh) % (GWh) DRAINAGE AVERAGE GROSS AREA FLOW 3 RDHE - I ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER, TRIBUTARY, REACH AND SITE 2) (km (m /s) 20 40 60 80 ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 OLDMAN RIVER REACH A-HEADWATER TO LETHBRIDGE 0 - 9,100 0 - 50 GAP SITE 1,200 10 67 40 20 10 10 10 OLDMAN RIVER SITE 4,200 35 50 110 60 30 20 20 OLDMAN RIVER PLANT 4,900 38 65 FORT MACLEOD SITE 8,800 49 33 100 60 30 20 10 0 - 1150 0 - 10 1,000 9 49 15 40 CASTLE RIVER CASTLE SITE WATERTON RIVER / CANAL 1189 1064 2,220 20% 440 250 130 80 60 115 320 10% 30 20 10 10 41% 100% 20 10 10 0 0 11 43% 3 WATERTON PLANT 14 56% 3 15 270 130 100% 130 70 40 20 20 10 10 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BELLY RIVER PLANT ST. MARY'S RIVER / CANAL 40 32 30 20 75 20 ST MARY'S PLANT 16 81% 2 TAYLOR CHUTE 45 40% 13 RAYMOND PLANT 50 44 60 38% 18 IRRICANA HYDRO PLANT 50 15.2 20 33% 7 CHIN CHUTE PLANT 50 40.5 50 52% 11 9,100 - 29,800 50 - 83 183 740 10% 70 40 20 10 10 70 40 20 10 10 REACH A-CONFLUENCE TO MEDICINE HAT 55,700 - 59,100 183 - 186 37 410 10% 40 20 10 10 10 40 20 10 10 10 REACH B-MEDICINE HAT TO SASK BORDER 59,100 - 67,900 186 - 192 82 930 50% 470 270 130 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 RAPID NARROWS SITE 60,000 186 12 130 70 40 20 20 MERIDIAN SITE 67,900 192 67 770 440 220 150 110 0 - 67,900 0 - 192 2,450 1,400 710 470 340 1,120 640 320 210 160 REACH B-LETHBRIDGE TO CONFLUENCE SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER TOTAL - SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN BASIN Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites 12,220 3,930 2,230 1,140 740 560 1,169 39% 415 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 13. THE PROVINCE AS A WHOLE Table 10 summarizes the hydroelectric energy potential of the nine river basins and gives the total for the Province. The table shows that five basins, the Athabasca, North Saskatchewan, Peace, Slave and South Saskatchewan Rivers, contain 99 percent of the estimated ultimate developable hydroelectric energy of 53,000 gigawatt hours per year - or 42,000 gigawatt hours at identified sites. These figures refer to what might be developed under favourable economic and other circumstances over a long period into the future. The energy presently developed is essentially all in the North Saskatchewan and South Saskatchewan basins and totals 2,050 gigawatt hours per year, only 4 percent of the total potential. The current install hydroelectric capacity is 907 MW. The Dunvegan Hydroelectric project is currently licensed for a 100 MW run of river development which could be online in 3 to 5 years. Given the long lead times necessary to plan and complete most major hydro projects, no other significant additions to the hydro capacity of Alberta can be expected before 2020. Increasing fossil fuel costs appear to be making hydro development increasingly attractive. Coupled with the increased interest in conservation and reduction of dependence on non-renewable resources, there is a reasonable possibility of significant development soon after 2020. The timing of future developments will be affected by the rising demand for electric energy, the diminishing supply and rising costs of fossil fuels, the possibilities of multi-purpose development and the social and environmental impacts of the developments. Hatch, however, would not expect to see the development of more than 10 - 20 percent of the ultimate potential within the next 30 or so years. The Slave, Peace, Smoky and Athabasca Rivers within the northern half of the Province, have the largest hydroelectric energy potentials of the Alberta Rivers. The decision to develop these rivers will depend mainly on energy demand and economic viability in relation to the evaluation of social and environmental impact. The rivers of the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan and Red Deer flow through the most densely populated areas of Alberta. The 23 existing hydro plants constructed primarily in these three basins generated about 4 percent of the total electric energy of Alberta in 2009. There is also an increasing demand from these rivers for domestic, municipal, industrial, irrigation and recreation uses as the population expands. Any future hydroelectric development on these rivers will likely be just a component of a multipurpose project and plant development will likely occur mainly in the interest of energy conservation. Such development will use renewable hydro energy which would otherwise be wasted. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 29 © Hatch 2010/02 Table 10 - Hydroelectric Energy Potential of Alberta TMHE UDHE DHE RDHE - I ANNUAL ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY ENERGY ENERGY FACTOR OF (GWh) (GWh) 20 40 60 80 ATHABASCA 24,970 13,050 7,450 3720 2,477 1,870 7 55% 1 CHURCHILL 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% HAY 1,030 100 60 30 20 10 0 MILK 140 0 0 0 0 0 NORTH SASKATCHEWAN 13,540 8,270 4,720 2360 1,570 PEACE 39,490 19,720 11,260 5640 RED DEER 3,440 340 190 SLAVE 8,490 7,640 SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN 12,220 3,930 TOTAL OF ALBERTA 103,360 ANNUAL CAPACITY CAPACITY ANNUAL RDHE - U MW POWER AT CAPACITY ANNUAL MW POWER AT CAPACITY FACTOR OF ENERGY FACTOR OF RIVER BASIN 53,050 Abbreviation: TMHE: Theoretical Maximum Hydroelectric Energy Potential UDHE -: Ultimate Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential DHE: Developed Hydroelectric Energy RDHE-I: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Identified Sites RDHE-U: Remaining Developable Hydroelectric Energy Potential at Unidentified Sites ENERGY FACTOR (GWh) % INSTALLED ENERGY MW (GWh) 20 40 60 80 (GWh) 20 40 60 80 9,620 8,840 4,430 2,960 2,240 2,873 1,650 820 550 410 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 60 30 20 10 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 80 40 30 20 1,180 805 26% 475 6,290 3,860 1,930 1,280 950 1,532 880 440 300 220 3,740 2,800 0 0% 0 16,100 15,960 7,980 5,330 3,990 5,470 20 40 60 80 100 60 50 70 53% 15 320 180 90 60 50 0 0 0 0 0 4,360 2180 1,450 1,090 0 0% 0 7,250 4,140 2,070 1,380 1,030 390 220 110 70 60 2,230 1140 740 560 1,169 39% 415 2,450 1,400 710 470 340 1,120 640 320 210 160 30,270 15,170 10,057 7,560 2,050 43% 907 42,030 34,380 17,210 11,480 8,600 11,625 3,550 1,800 1,240 960 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 BIBLIOGRAPHY For this report Hatch did not review all studies cited in the previous bibliography. However, the previous bibliography is presented here in its entirety as a reference with new references added at the end. ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN 1. "Athabasca River Power Investigations", February 1954, T. M. Schulte and P. C. Roxburgh of Calgary Power Ltd. 2. "Preliminary Report on the Power Potential of the Athabasca River between Athabasca & McMurray", January 1955, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 3. "Helicopter Reconnaissance of Athabasca River, Swift Current Rapids to McMurray", November 1962, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 4. "Reconnaissance Field Trip to Baptiste Damsite", August 1962, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 5. "Upgrading of cost estimate for Crooked Rapids Hydro Site, developed without benefit of upstream storage", November 1971, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 6. "The storage potential of Lesser Slave Lake", 1952, J. L. Reid of Department of Water Resources, Province of Alberta, T. F. Schulte and P. C. Roxburgh of Calgary Power Ltd. 7. "The Regulation of Lesser Slave Lake", September 1965, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Alberta Water Resources Division. 8. "Airphoto study of Sawdy and Baptiste Damsites on Athabasca River", January 1962, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 9. "Athabasca River Regulation - Preliminary Studies and Reconnaissance", January 1966, Gibb, Underwood & McLellan and Lockwood Survey Corporation Ltd. for Alberta Water Resources Division. 10. "Preliminary Study of the Clearwater River for Hydro-Electric Development", June 1964, R. G. Jones of Canadian Utilities Limited. 11. "Athabasca River Power Development - Crooked Rapids Dam Feasibility Study" April 1975, Environmental Planning Division, Alberta Department of the Environment. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 30 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 PEACE RIVER BASIN 12. "Reconnaissance Study of Geology and Possible Damsites along the Peace River Valley in Alberta", April 1964, J. D. Mollard and Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 13. "Dunvegan Hydro Site - Preliminary Appraisal, July 1968, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 14. "Subsurface Investigation of a Proposed Peace River Damsite about 1% miles west of Dunvegan", December 1965, Bernard, Hoggan Engineering and Testing, Ltd. for Alberta Water Resources Division. 15. "Mile 232 and Mile 251 Hydro Sites on the Peace River – Preliminary Appraisal", December 1968, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 16. "An office Study of the Smoky River for Hydro-Electric Development, October 1963, R. Nurse of Canadian Utilities, Limited. 17. "Preliminary Report on the Hydro-Electric Development of the Smoky River", January 1964, Balfour, Beatty & Co., Limited for Canadian Utilities Limited. 18. "The 19th Baseline Area - Smoky River, Preliminary Investigation", 1964, Balfour, Beatty & Co., Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited 19. "Supplementary Report on the 19th Baseline Hydro-Electric Project", July 1968, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited.20. "Supplementary Report on the 19th Baseline Hydro-Electric Project, Smoky River, Alberta", Revised: April 1969, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited. 20. "Supplementary Report on the 19th Baseline Hydro-Electric Project", Smokey River, Alberta”, Revised: April 1969, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited. 21. "The Watino Preliminary Site Investigation - Smoky River", July 1965, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited. 22. "Studies for a Kakwa Site Diversion Dam on the Smoky River", July 1966, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Alberta Water Resources Division. 23. "Preliminary Survey of Possible Hydro-Electric Developments in North-Western Alberta", December 1968, Balfour Beatty Power Consultants Canada Limited for Canadian Utilities, Limited. 24. "Feasibility Study - Dunvegan Hydro Power Site", January 1977 Alberta Hydro Committee. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 31 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 25. "Alberta-British Columbia Studies on Peace River Power Development December, 1976. NORTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN 26. "Notes on Storage and Power Sites on the North Saskatchewan River", August 1964, Calgary Power Ltd. and Montreal Engineering Company, Limited. 27. "Storage of the North Saskatchewan River at Bighorn, June 1966, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 28. "Preliminary Airphoto Study of Geology, Topography, Drainage and Diversion Schemes between North Saskatchewan River at Horburg and Nordegg River in TP. 44, RGE. 11 & 12, W 5th, May 1964, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 29. "Summaries of Studies on Upper Brazeau Storage and Power Developments", June 1963, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 30. "Reconnaissance Engineering - Geology Study, Brazeau Forks Site and Vicinity", December 1959, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. RED DEER RIVER BASIN 31. "Red Deer River Flow Regulation Planning Studies", June 1975 Environmental Planning Division, Alberta Department of the Environment. 32. "Preliminary Report on the Installation of a Hydroelectric Facility at the Proposed Red Deer River Development", November 1978 Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 33. "Preliminary Engineering Report - Dickson Dam Red Deer River, May 1979, Underwood McLellan (1977) Ltd. for Alberta Department of the Environment. SLAVE RIVER BASIN 34. "A Preliminary Appraisal of the Hydroelectric Development of the Slave River", June 1971, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. 35. "1977 Re-appraisal of the Hydroelectric Potential of the Slave River", December 1977, Monenco Consultants, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN 36. "Storage on the Bow River below Bassano", (Eyremore), November 1967, Montreal Engineering Company, Limited for Calgary Power Ltd. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 32 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 37. "Office Airphoto Study of Geology - Rapid Narrows Site, South Saskatchewan River, August 1962, J. D. Mollard & Associates for Calgary Power Ltd. 38. "Feasibility Study of Low Head Hydro Energy Generation at Bassano Dam, June 1978 Acres Consulting Services Limited for the Energy Resources Conservation Board. 39. "Oldman River Basin Phase II Studies - Hydroelectric Energy Potential", June 1978, Energy Resources Conservation Board. OTHERS 40. "Water Supply for the Saskatchewan-Nelson Basin", 1972, Saskatchewan Nelson Basin Board. 41. "Historical Streamflow Summary to 1970 - Alberta", 1972, Water Survey of Canada, Canada Department of the Environment. 42. "Historical Streamflow Summary to 1970 - Saskatchewan", 1972, Water Survey of Canada, Canada Department of the Environment. 43. "Historical Streamflow Summary - Alberta - to 1976", 1977. 44. "Historical Streamflow Summary - Saskatchewan - to 1976", 1977. 45. "Surface Water Data, Alberta, 1967 to 1978", Water Survey of Canada, Canada Department of the Environment. 46. "Selected Characteristics of Streamflow in Alberta", 1970, Research Council of Alberta and others. 47. "Surface Water Supplies and Water Power of Alberta, Their Present and Ultimate Uses", December 1948, Alberta Water Resources Division and Alberta Power Commission. 48. "Alberta, A Natural History", 1967, W. G. Hardy, Editor-in-Chief Distributed by M. G. Hurtig, Publishers. ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 33 © Hatch 2010/02 Alberta Utilities Commission - Update on Alberta's Hydroelectric Energy Resources - February 26, 2010 NEW REFERENCES 49. ”The Hydro And Hydro Electric Energy Potential of Alberta - A Preliminarily Appraisal“, April 1973, The Energy Resources Conservation Board. 50. ” Alberta Hydroelectric Energy Resources“, May 1981, The Energy Resources Conservation Board. 51. "Slave River Hydro Feasibility Study", June 1982, Slave River Steering Committee. 52. "Re-Evaluation of the Dunvegan Hydroelectric Project", June 1983, Acres - Monenco. 53. "Provincial Inventory of Potential Water Storage Sites and Diversion Scenarios", Sept 2005, MPE Engineering Ltd. 54. Water Survey of Canada (WSC) website: http://www.wsc.ec.gc.ca/hydat/H2O ISO 9001 AUC Energy Study, Rev. 1, Page 34 © Hatch 2010/02 Suite 700, 840 7th Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2P 3G2 Tel (403) 269 9555 Fax (403) 266 5736
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