THE AMERICAN QUARTER
HORSE RACING JOURNAL
Horse Race Tip:
SPEED
RATINGS
Speed ratings give another number to compare speed at the horse race track.
By Michael Cusortelli
From The American Quarter Horse Racing Journal library
www.americashorsedaily.com
1
www.americashorsedaily.com
SPEED
RULES
S
– AT LEAST THE
world of American Quarter Horse racing.
Quarter Horse handicappers have two speed figures to
choose from: the traditional speed index and the TrackMaster speed rating. The speed index has been around since
1970, when it replaced the original letter-grade system,
under which AAAT (read: Top triple-A) represented the
top speed category and was followed by AAA, AA, A, B,
C and D.
The speed index system replaced the letter-based system
with a number system. Originally, a 100 SI was roughly
equivalent to the old AAAT. The actual calculation of the
speed index starts with taking the three fastest winning
times at a particular distance for the past three years at a
given track. These times are averaged together, and that averaged time is then the 100 SI for that distance at that track.
If that average doesn’t meet the minimum standard time
given by AQHA for that distance, then a minimum standard
time is used.
To calculate an SI, the time the horse recorded is compared to the average speed for the distance of the race,
and points are added or subtracted based on whether the
time was faster or slower than the average. The number
of points subtracted or added varies according to the distance of the race, and is based on a chart distributed
annually by AQHA.
In 1997, TrackMaster, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Equibase Company LLC, introduced a new speed figure to
fans of the sprint game. Valuable to handicappers, breeders
and buyers, TrackMaster’s ratings standardize horses’ finishing times across all different tracks, distances, surfaces
and weather conditions. The numbers are generally between
0 and 130, with 130 being an extremely high figure earned
by a Grade 1-caliber horse.
difficult to use when comparing horses from different tracks.
The TrackMaster speed ratings appear exclusively in the
company’s past performances, which are available from its
Web site, www.trackmaster.com. The rating combines three
factors in its final figure. The first component is a raw speed
rating based on the time of the horse and distance of the
race, using a formula based on a parallel time chart. Basically, it converts time and distance to a number, and the
value of one point is less time at shorter distances – for
example, one point equals 1/20th of a second at 870 yards
and 1/40th of a second at 440.
The number is then modified with the second factor, an
Intertrack Variant (ITV), a number that gets updated every
year and allows for time and speed variations between tracks.
“The ITV measures the differences between the size, shape
and composition of the tracks,” says TrackMaster vice president of marketing and sales Jim Vanderbosch. “Ideally, we
would like to use a mechanical device to measure the ITV,
but because that’s impossible we do a shipper study that
looks at horses that have raced a minimum number of times
at multiple tracks to assess the differences in average competitive finishing times.”
The third component involved in creating the speed rating
is the Daily Track Variant (DTV), which makes adjustments for things such as wet track and wind conditions.
The DTV is computed using a formula that computes the
difference, or deviation, between the winning speed ratings
at a specific track and the expected winning speed rating,
which TrackMaster calls its class rating, for each racing day.
These deviations are then analyzed again to determine the
final DTV, and there can be multiple DTVs on a given day
if conditions change sufficiently through the day to affect
the underlying condition of the track – think Ruidoso
Downs on All American Futurity (G1) trials day.
The ITV and DTV are added to the raw speed rating to
come up with the final speed rating that appears in TrackMaster’s PPs.
“The TrackMaster speed rating is based on formulas and
thousands of pieces of data for a more reliable number,” says
AQHA Executive Director of Racing Trey Buck. “Fans,
SPEED FIGURES MAKE THE WORLD GO AROUND
TrackMaster Ratings
TRACKMASTER PRESIDENT DAVID SIEGEL THINKS THAT QUARTER
Horse racing’s traditional method of rating speed has an
inherent flaw, as the general quality of horses differs from
track to track. Therefore, the speed indexes are unequal and
www.americashorsedaily.com
2
www.americashorsedaily.com
oughbred and harness racing past performance lines, and
the company is always looking for ways to improve its
product. This work has been particularly intense for the
past six months or so.
One of the changes made involves the wind factor –
specifically, the direction (head, wind and cross) and speed
(measured in miles per hour).
“For Quarter Horses in particular, we’ve conducted a
times Thoroughbreds race in Quarter Horse races. It’s important that, on average, their numbers look quite similar.”
The last enhancement – and perhaps the most important
– is that soon every Quarter Horse that races in an official
race will have a speed rating, regardless of whether that horse
races at an uncommon distance or at a track that offers limited racing opportunities during its meet.
When TrackMaster computes its ITVs, it needs a certain
number of races to be run at the distance at the track to get
a viable sample size. But Siegel says it’s now able to produce speed ratings using a slightly different method than
previously explained, based on its research of its Thoroughbred data.
“We’re now able to produce speed ratings when we don’t
have an ITV – let’s say, for example, that Los Alamitos runs
a 500-yard race, but they only ran one of them in the last
year,” he says. “We’ve taken something we’ve developed with
Thoroughbreds and modified for Quarter Horses, which
detailed study on the effects of wind on the speed ratings,”
Siegel says. “We’ve done that by taking the existing data that
we have in terms of measuring wind, both direction and
speed. We’ve also done a lot of regression analysis of our data
and read the previous works written by physicists – such as
Dr. George Pratt – about the effects of wind.
“After our research, our bottom line is that, (a) wind certainly does make a difference, (b) the differences between the
head and tail winds are not symmetrical, and (c) we’ve found
the works by the physicists to be incorrect,” he adds. “We
believe in that their analysis, they’re off by a factor of two
by how much the wind affected a horse’s time.
“All of our research is now reflected in our data, and to the
extent that we get more accurate wind data from more tracks,
that data will become more accurate. When we don’t get a
wind figure from a track, we consider that race to have had
a zero wind. We have no other choice but to do that.”
Also, TrackMaster’s Quarter Horse speed ratings have been
scaled more closely to its Thoroughbred ratings.
“The value of a length is the same at a given distance for
both Thoroughbreds and Quarter Horses,” Siegel says.
“When we look at the very best Quarter Horses, we want to
make sure that their numbers are effectively similar to the
very best Thoroughbreds. This is important because some-
allows us to come up with a speed rating for that race based
on its class rating.
“Let’s say this 500-yard race has a class rating of 80, and
that all the top horses in that race had been running speed
ratings of between 78 and 82,” he adds. “If, in that 500-yard
race, we have three horses all finish within a neck of each
other at the wire, that race is going to get a speed rating very
close to 80.
“We think it’s important for every horse, regardless of the
track or distance, to have a speed rating. It’s important for
handicappers, as well as breeders.”
All of these updates mean that handicappers will soon
have access to more accurate speed ratings. TrackMaster
hopes to increase their visibility by working with AQHA,
Equibase and InCompass, a company which provides software that allows tracks to print their own past performance programs.
Thus far, tracks that include speed figures in their programs use only the traditional speed index.
“We plan to put a package together so that racetracks can
use our speed rating in place of – or in addition to – the
speed index,” says Siegel. “There hasn’t been a demand for
it from the tracks, but I want to change that dynamic so that
they know it’s there if they want it.”
breeders and buyers can be assured that the numbers they
see for a horse are more accurate (than the speed index) and
a better representation of that horse.
“The speed index number is based on a very small sampling of information and data available,” he adds. “It does
not really allow someone the ability to compare one track
with another or give a true picture of a horse’s ability.”
Product Enhancements
PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY TERRY STIDGER
TRACKMASTER ALSO CALCULATES SPEED RATINGS FOR ITS THOR-
www.americashorsedaily.com
3
www.americashorsedaily.com
www.americashorsedaily.com
4
www.americashorsedaily.com