Minnesota
Midweek
Review
11.2.2016
The R7 Corn Data chart above is what a multi-million
AnswerPlot investment yields, and it’s worth every
penny. As we go through the remainder of the year,
many decisions influencing the success of the 2017 crop
will already be made before the calendar even turns.
Fred Below tells us that choosing the right hybrid
accounts for 20% of corn yield, while the planting
population comprises another 8% of yield. Factor
nitrogen into the equation, and the correct hybrids
inherent response to N, that’s worth another 27% of
total yield. Altogether, 55% of yield comes through a
function of getting the right hybrid on the right acre at
the right nitrogen rate.
With that type of risk on the line, don’t you deserve the
best data available to make those seed decisions?
When it comes to corn seed, we know that the highest
potential comes when the corn is still in the bag. We are
tasked at distributing the right portion of the bag per
acre by choosing the right planting population. With the
expense of corn seed on the line, and the potential 8
bushel/acre (AnswerPlot data) swings we see by getting
the plant population right or wrong, knowing if there’s a
high chance of success by increasing population rates by
2000 plants per acre makes a big impact on ROI.
Corey Evans |
Retail Agronomy Advisor
Minnesota
Midweek
Review
11.2.2016
Cost/Bag
Sold Price
$2.50 $2.75 $3.00 $3.25 $3.50 $3.75 $4.00
$4.25
$4.50
$175
1.75
1.59
1.46
1.35
1.25
1.17
1.09
1.03
0.97
$200
2.00
1.82
1.67
1.54
1.43
1.33
1.25
1.18
1.11
$225
2.25
2.05
1.88
1.73
1.61
1.50
1.41
1.32
1.25
$250
2.50
2.27
2.08
1.92
1.79
1.67
1.56
1.47
1.39
$275
2.75
2.50
2.29
2.12
1.96
1.83
1.72
1.62
1.53
$300
3.00
2.73
2.50
2.31
2.14
2.00
1.88
1.76
1.67
$325
3.25
2.95
2.71
2.50
2.32
2.17
2.03
1.91
1.81
$350
3.50
3.18
2.92
2.69
2.50
2.33
2.19
2.06
1.94
$375
3.75
3.41
3.13
2.88
2.68
2.50
2.34
2.21
2.08
$400
4.00
3.64
3.33
3.08
2.86
2.67
2.50
2.35
2.22
Let’s take a simplistic look at how WinField’s data influences ROI.
Example 1: Hybrid A costs $325/bag, and you plan to sell your corn at $3/bushel. You normally plant all of
your fields at a 34,000 plants/acre average. Your planned seed cost is $138.13/acre. You realize that the
AnswerPlot data tells you the hybrid has a low “Response to Population (RTP)”, meaning the hybrid doesn't
realize incremental yield advantages when pushing populations. The data says that a low RTP hybrid has a
high probability of not incurring a yield penalty by reducing populations some. You decide to now plant that
field at 32,000 plants per acre, which brings your seed cost down to $130/acre. The same amount of acres
you were going to cover with the $325 bag at 34,000 just became equivalent to buying a $306 bag of seed
by using the data to move the populations down just 2,000 plants.
Example 2. Hybrid B costs $325/bag, and you plan to sell your corn at $3/bushel. You normally plant all of
your fields at a 34,000 plants/acre average. Your planned seed cost is $138.13/acre. You realize that the
AnswerPlot data tells you the hybrid has a high “Response to Population (RTP)”, meaning the hybrid has a
higher probability of seeing incremental yield increases as you push populations higher. You decide to now
plant that field at 36,000 plants per acre, which brings your seed cost to $146.25/acre. At that selling price
and seed cost, you need to see 2.71-bushel increase in yield to pay for the increase. Let’s say you only see a
4 bushel/acre increase after pushing populations. You gained 1.29 bushels/acre of profit, and an ROI of 47%!
If we know we need a minimum of two more bushels when we increase population by 2,000 plants per acre
to break even, we have to determine what constitutes a good response. Knowing the hybrids specific
“Response to Population (RTP)” score takes the guesswork out of making that decision. If we know that a
certain hybrid has a high RTP score we have a much higher chance of realizing increased yields by pushing
populations higher. On the flipside, if a hybrid has a low RTP score, it has less potential to make the yields
required to break even on the increase in seed cost. 2000 plants may not seem like a lot, but at $3.00 corn
and a $325 bag of seed, that equates to a value of $6 insight/acre on savings or potential minimum gains per
acre based on probability of response. RTP scores can’t be the only qualifier to change planting populations.
It all comes back to hybrid placement. We still have to consider low, medium and high yield environments,
different soil types and management practices to optimize performance.
Corey Evans |
Retail Agronomy Advisor
Minnesota
Midweek
Review
11.2.2016
The picture directly above shows the difference between a high RTP and low RTP hybrid (left to
right: 24k, 30k, 36k, and 42k planting population per acre) and how we can see dramatic
differences in yield by focusing on planting population and RTP data.
So what’s a bag of seed really worth? Using the WinField AnswerPlot data and creating field specific
insights totally changes the value equation of a bag of seed. The example above shows the power
of just a difference in 2000 plants per acre can make.
How much more per bag of seed would you be willing to pay to have these insights on your acres?
On the flipside, shouldn't it be table stakes for your seed corn supplier to deliver this kind of
information to make sure the hybrids are successful?
The concepts above only pulls in the population aspect, and nitrogen hasn't even been brought in
to the conversation. The chart above is a simplistic view of some of the 95 RM lineup and how they
correlate with RTP and RTN (Response to Nitrogen). It is not just about the cost of seed per bag; it
is the data behind the bag and the insights to manage it becoming a part of the equation to
maximize ROI!
Corey Evans |
Retail Agronomy Advisor