Pottsboro Independent School District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow Demographic Report January 2016 Economic Conditions – Sherman-Denison MSA (November 2015) Grayson County Unemployment Rate -0.2% 0.8% Sherman-Denison Job Growth 1,514 YTD Home Sales Sherman-Denison MSA • • • • U.S. 4.8% Texas 4.5% Sherman-Denison MSA 4.0% Grayson County 4.0% • 400 new jobs created in the last 12 months • Increases in manufacturing, transportation, financial and education & healthcare • 155 more than the same period in 2014 • This is an annual rise of 11.4% 2 Local Economic Overview New Pharmacy to be built • • • A new 7,000 sq. ft. pharmacy is being planned to be built on the Southeast corner of FM 120 and SH 289. The property owners are working closely with the City of Pottsboro and TXDOT to install a turn lane from FM 120 to better serve the pharmacy location. Once this work is complete, construction will begin, sometime within the next 12 months. Dallas North Tollway • • While still several years out, the DNT does have plans to reach through Grayson County and connect with 75 in Denison. The NTTA is currently speculating that the DNT will reach F.M. 455 between Pilot Point and Celina with in the next 4 to 5 years but will not say beyond that time frame. 3 Texas Enrollment Trends 2014/15 State Enrollment Total Enrollment Total Growth 5,232,065 80,140 Total State Enrollment 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,000,000 4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 5,232,065 5,151,925 4,933,617 5,075,840 4,847,844 4,998,579 4,671,493 4,749,571 4,519,164 4,592,849 4,399,019 4,000,000 3,800,000 140,000 120,000 Enrollment Change 120,145 98,273 100,000 80,000 60,000 85,773 78,644 73,685 77,261 78,078 80,140 76,085 64,962 40,000 20,000 0 4 Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends 5 Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends Region 10 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 33 34 35 District Frisco ISD Richardson ISD Prosper ISD Dallas ISD Mesquite ISD Allen ISD Wylie ISD (Collin) Grand Prairie ISD Coppell ISD Irving ISD Forney ISD Rockwall ISD Waxahachie ISD McKinney ISD Lancaster ISD Princeton ISD Melissa ISD Highland Park ISD (Dallas) Anna ISD Royse City ISD Caddo Mills ISD Pottsboro ISD Scurry‐Rosser ISD 2009/10 Enrollment 33,973 34,843 3,637 157,111 37,272 18,242 12,063 26,395 9,982 33,679 7,813 13,843 6,924 23,933 6,176 2,996 1,378 6,448 2,246 4,450 1,460 1,255 899 Region 11 2014/15 Enrollment 49,644 38,618 7,074 160,253 40,273 20,664 14,039 28,340 11,570 35,191 8,995 14,992 7,968 24,811 7,052 3,790 2,119 7,091 2,874 5,070 5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15) 15,671 3,775 3,437 3,142 3,001 2,422 1,976 1,945 1,588 1,512 1,182 1,149 1,044 878 876 794 741 643 628 620 5‐YEAR PCT Growth 46.1% 10.8% 94.5% 2.0% 8.1% 13.3% 16.4% 7.4% 15.9% 4.5% 15.1% 8.3% 15.1% 3.7% 14.2% 26.5% 53.8% 10.0% 28.0% 13.9% 1,593 1,387 1,005 133 132 106 9.1% 10.5% 11.8% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 DISTRICT Fort Worth ISD Northwest ISD Denton ISD Eagle Mt‐Saginaw ISD Lewisville ISD Keller ISD Mansfield ISD Hurst‐Euless‐Bedford ISD Birdville ISD Burleson ISD Little Elm ISD White Settlement ISD Everman ISD Krum ISD Aledo ISD Castleberry ISD Aubrey ISD Arlington ISD Brock ISD Azle ISD 2009/10 Enrollment 80,209 14,164 22,825 16,126 50,840 31,569 31,662 20,762 22,897 9,896 6,112 6,051 5,053 1,613 4,589 3,641 1,784 63,487 854 5,841 2014/15 Enrollment 85,975 19,831 27,020 18,659 53,356 33,619 33,410 22,416 24,389 10,983 6,950 6,664 5,543 2,064 5,037 4,076 2,213 63,882 1,175 6,156 5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15) 5,766 5,667 4,195 2,533 2,516 2,050 1,748 1,654 1,492 1,087 838 613 490 451 448 435 429 395 321 315 • There are 80 districts in Region 10 and 76 in Region 11. 6 5‐YEAR PCT Growth 7.2% 40.0% 18.4% 15.7% 4.9% 6.5% 5.5% 8.0% 6.5% 11.0% 13.7% 10.1% 9.7% 28.0% 9.8% 11.9% 24.0% 0.6% 37.6% 5.4% Grayson County MSA Housing Market Year Over Year Comparisons YTD Sales (1,493 YTD Sales Nov 2015) Average Price ($147,429 Nov 2015) 11% 6% Median Price 14% ($127,500 Nov 2015) ‐23% Number of Listings ‐24% Days on the Market ‐32% (537 Nov 2015) (70 Days) Existing Home Inventory (4.0 Month’s Supply) Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center 7 Active Single Family Fountain Creek Estates Fountain Creek Estates • • • • 102 total lots 63 homes occupied 34 future lots planned 5 vacant developed lots • Phase 2= 5 lots (all VDL) • Phase 3= 34 lots planned • Preliminary plat has been approved, but developer has not submitted final plat yet • In 2012, developer received approval for delay of up to 5 years with an automatic 2 year extension to submit required documents • 32 current students • 8 Elementary students • 17 Middle school students • 7 High school students • Current student yield: .50 8 Active Single Family North Edge North Edge • • • • 13 total lots 5 homes occupied Last home was built in 2013 8 available lots remain, however no building is currently occurring or planned • Homes are custom built • 1 current student (Middle school) • Current student yield: .20 9 Active Single Family Tanglewood Crossing Denison ISD Tanglewood Crossing • 39 Total lots • 4 homes under construction • No current students 10 Active Multi-Family Abbington Junction Abbington Junction • 56 total units • Project was delayed by weather in Spring 2015 • Currently under construction, anticipated completion late spring or early summer 2016 • No current students Current Apartment Yields Apartment Complex Units Students Lakewood Terrace 24 8 Williamsburg 28 11 Yield 0.333 0.393 11 New Single Family Housing History Homes built 2012 through 2014 12 Enrollment History Year (Oct) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth % Growth 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 3 4 3 3 1 39 38 37 34 23 101 100 93 102 110 95 105 93 96 97 93 105 105 98 104 94 91 105 106 100 106 97 93 105 116 93 112 98 99 119 103 100 109 97 97 112 107 106 119 109 111 119 107 98 118 113 108 128 108 113 79 105 99 129 105 89 72 100 100 122 82 83 73 93 95 1,313 1,346 1,349 1,387 1,429 33 3 38 42 2.5% 0.2% 2.8% 3.0% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Cohort Analysis 3 Year Avg. 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 K 1.035 0.930 1.097 1.078 1st 0.971 0.930 1.032 0.951 2nd 1.046 1.000 1.054 1.083 3rd 1.010 1.000 1.010 1.020 4th 1.039 1.022 1.000 1.094 5th 1.069 1.010 1.065 1.133 6th 0.981 0.973 0.990 0.980 7th 1.092 1.060 1.092 1.124 8th 0.972 1.000 0.925 0.992 9th 1.079 1.076 1.009 1.153 10th 0.966 0.917 1.008 0.972 11th 0.969 0.952 1.010 0.946 12th 0.965 1.014 0.930 0.950 Total 1,444 1,494 1,464 Growth 15 65 35 Initial Comparison Analysis Roll‐up Prev Cohort 3‐YR Avg. K 110 119 114 1st 110 105 107 2nd 97 105 101 3rd 104 106 105 4th 100 109 104 5th 116 131 124 6th 119 117 117 7th 97 109 106 8th 109 108 106 9th 118 136 127 10th 113 110 109 11th 105 99 102 12th 122 116 118 13 Student Density Map 14 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (Oct) 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 EE 3 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 PK 39 38 37 34 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 K 101 100 93 102 110 107 110 116 115 120 123 126 130 134 138 1st 95 105 93 96 97 109 106 108 114 113 118 121 124 128 132 2nd 93 105 105 98 104 104 117 114 116 122 121 126 130 133 137 3rd 94 91 105 106 100 105 105 119 116 118 124 123 128 132 135 4th 106 97 93 105 116 105 110 109 124 121 123 129 128 133 138 5th 93 112 98 99 119 122 111 115 116 131 127 130 136 135 140 6th 103 100 109 97 97 121 125 113 118 119 134 130 133 139 138 7th 112 107 106 119 109 103 131 131 120 126 126 142 138 141 148 8th 111 119 107 98 118 108 104 132 130 120 126 125 142 138 140 9th 113 108 128 108 113 127 117 114 143 142 131 137 136 155 150 10th 79 105 99 129 105 112 124 115 112 137 139 128 133 133 151 11th 89 72 100 100 122 104 107 120 110 107 131 133 123 127 127 12th 82 83 73 93 95 118 100 104 116 106 103 126 128 119 123 Total % Total Growth Growth 1,313 1,346 33 2.5% 1,349 3 0.2% 1,387 38 2.8% 1,429 42 3.0% 1,469 40 2.8% 1,491 22 1.5% 1,534 43 2.9% 1,574 40 2.6% 1,606 32 2.0% 1,650 44 2.7% 1,700 50 3.0% 1,733 33 1.9% 1,771 38 2.2% 1,821 50 2.8% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year • Pottsboro ISD will reach 1,500 students by 2018 • 5 year growth = 177 students • 2020/21 enrollment = 1,606 students • 10 year growth = 392 students • 2025/26 enrollment = 1,821 students 15 Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current Campus POTTSBORO ELEMENTARY ELEMENTARY TOTAL Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change POTTSBORO MIDDLE SCHOOL POTTSBORO MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL Middle School Absolute Change Middle School Percent Change POTTSBORO HIGH SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change DISTRICT TOTALS District Absolute Change District Percent Change Capacity 2014/15 477 439 439 3 0.69% 415 314 314 ‐8 ‐2.48% 475 430 430 30 7.50% 1,387 38 2.82% 2015/16 551 551 112 25.51% 443 443 129 41.08% 435 435 5 1.16% 1,429 42 3.03% ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 2016/17 554 554 3 0.54% 454 454 11 2.48% 461 461 26 5.98% 1,469 40 2.80% 2017/18 572 572 18 3.25% 471 471 17 3.74% 448 448 ‐13 ‐2.82% 1,491 22 1.50% 2018/19 590 590 18 3.15% 491 491 20 4.25% 453 453 5 1.12% 1,534 43 2.88% 2019/20 609 609 19 3.22% 484 484 ‐7 ‐1.43% 481 481 28 6.18% 1,574 40 2.61% 2020/21 618 618 9 1.48% 496 496 12 2.48% 492 492 11 2.29% 1,606 32 2.03% 2021/22 633 633 15 2.43% 513 513 17 3.43% 504 504 12 2.44% 1,650 44 2.74% 2022/23 649 649 16 2.53% 527 527 14 2.73% 524 524 20 3.97% 1,700 50 3.03% 2023/24 664 664 15 2.31% 549 549 22 4.17% 520 520 ‐4 ‐0.76% 1,733 33 1.94% 2024/25 2025/26 684 704 684 704 20 20 3.01% 2.92% 553 566 553 566 4 13 0.73% 2.35% 534 551 534 551 14 17 2.69% 3.18% 1,771 1,821 38 50 2.19% 2.82% *Campuses over stated capacity are highlighted in yellow. • Pottsboro Elementary will likely reach 600 students by 2019 • The Middle School and the High School will likely reach 500 students by 2021 • Pottsboro High School is anticipated to grow by nearly 6% next fall 16 Summary • Texas unemployment has been below the national rate for 8 consecutive years. • Average sale price in Grayson County was $147,400 in November, a 6% rise from November 2014. • Construction on the Abbington Junction apartment complex is set to be completed in late spring or early summer of 2016. • Pottsboro fall 2015 enrollment = 1,429 students • Five year enrollment growth of 170 students with a fall 2020 enrollment of 1,606. • Ten year enrollment growth of 390 students, with a fall 2025 enrollment of 1,821. www.tdemographics.com 17
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