Pottsboro
Independent
School
District
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Demographic
Report
January 2016
Economic Conditions – Sherman-Denison MSA
(November 2015)
Grayson County
Unemployment Rate
-0.2%
0.8%
Sherman-Denison
Job Growth
1,514
YTD Home Sales
Sherman-Denison MSA
•
•
•
•
U.S. 4.8%
Texas 4.5%
Sherman-Denison MSA 4.0%
Grayson County 4.0%
• 400 new jobs created in the
last 12 months
• Increases in manufacturing,
transportation, financial and
education & healthcare
• 155 more than the same period in 2014
• This is an annual rise of 11.4%
2
Local Economic Overview
New Pharmacy to be built
•
•
•
A new 7,000 sq. ft. pharmacy is being planned to be
built on the Southeast corner of FM 120 and SH 289.
The property owners are working closely with the
City of Pottsboro and TXDOT to install a turn lane
from FM 120 to better serve the pharmacy location.
Once this work is complete, construction will begin,
sometime within the next 12 months.
Dallas North Tollway
•
•
While still several years out, the
DNT does have plans to reach
through Grayson County and
connect with 75 in Denison.
The NTTA is currently speculating
that the DNT will reach F.M. 455
between Pilot Point and Celina with
in the next 4 to 5 years but will not
say beyond that time frame.
3
Texas Enrollment Trends
2014/15 State Enrollment
Total Enrollment
Total Growth
5,232,065
80,140
Total State Enrollment
5,400,000
5,200,000
5,000,000
4,800,000
4,600,000
4,400,000
4,200,000
5,232,065
5,151,925
4,933,617
5,075,840
4,847,844
4,998,579
4,671,493
4,749,571
4,519,164
4,592,849
4,399,019
4,000,000
3,800,000
140,000
120,000
Enrollment Change
120,145
98,273
100,000
80,000
60,000
85,773
78,644
73,685
77,261
78,078
80,140
76,085
64,962
40,000
20,000
0
4
Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends
5
Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends
Region 10
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
33
34
35
District
Frisco ISD
Richardson ISD
Prosper ISD
Dallas ISD
Mesquite ISD
Allen ISD
Wylie ISD (Collin)
Grand Prairie ISD
Coppell ISD
Irving ISD
Forney ISD
Rockwall ISD
Waxahachie ISD
McKinney ISD
Lancaster ISD
Princeton ISD
Melissa ISD
Highland Park ISD (Dallas)
Anna ISD
Royse City ISD
Caddo Mills ISD
Pottsboro ISD
Scurry‐Rosser ISD
2009/10 Enrollment
33,973
34,843
3,637
157,111
37,272
18,242
12,063
26,395
9,982
33,679
7,813
13,843
6,924
23,933
6,176
2,996
1,378
6,448
2,246
4,450
1,460
1,255
899
Region 11
2014/15 Enrollment
49,644
38,618
7,074
160,253
40,273
20,664
14,039
28,340
11,570
35,191
8,995
14,992
7,968
24,811
7,052
3,790
2,119
7,091
2,874
5,070
5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15)
15,671
3,775
3,437
3,142
3,001
2,422
1,976
1,945
1,588
1,512
1,182
1,149
1,044
878
876
794
741
643
628
620
5‐YEAR PCT Growth
46.1%
10.8%
94.5%
2.0%
8.1%
13.3%
16.4%
7.4%
15.9%
4.5%
15.1%
8.3%
15.1%
3.7%
14.2%
26.5%
53.8%
10.0%
28.0%
13.9%
1,593
1,387
1,005
133
132
106
9.1%
10.5%
11.8%
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
DISTRICT
Fort Worth ISD
Northwest ISD
Denton ISD
Eagle Mt‐Saginaw ISD
Lewisville ISD
Keller ISD
Mansfield ISD
Hurst‐Euless‐Bedford ISD
Birdville ISD
Burleson ISD
Little Elm ISD
White Settlement ISD
Everman ISD
Krum ISD
Aledo ISD
Castleberry ISD
Aubrey ISD
Arlington ISD
Brock ISD
Azle ISD
2009/10 Enrollment 80,209
14,164
22,825
16,126
50,840
31,569
31,662
20,762
22,897
9,896
6,112
6,051
5,053
1,613
4,589
3,641
1,784
63,487
854
5,841
2014/15 Enrollment
85,975
19,831
27,020
18,659
53,356
33,619
33,410
22,416
24,389
10,983
6,950
6,664
5,543
2,064
5,037
4,076
2,213
63,882
1,175
6,156
5‐YEAR Change (09/10‐14/15)
5,766
5,667
4,195
2,533
2,516
2,050
1,748
1,654
1,492
1,087
838
613
490
451
448
435
429
395
321
315
• There are 80 districts in Region 10 and 76 in Region 11.
6
5‐YEAR PCT Growth
7.2%
40.0%
18.4%
15.7%
4.9%
6.5%
5.5%
8.0%
6.5%
11.0%
13.7%
10.1%
9.7%
28.0%
9.8%
11.9%
24.0%
0.6%
37.6%
5.4%
Grayson County MSA Housing Market
Year Over Year Comparisons
YTD Sales
(1,493 YTD Sales Nov 2015)
Average Price
($147,429 Nov 2015)
11%
6%
Median Price
14%
($127,500 Nov 2015)
‐23%
Number of Listings
‐24%
Days on the Market
‐32%
(537 Nov 2015)
(70 Days)
Existing Home Inventory
(4.0 Month’s Supply)
Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center
7
Active Single Family
Fountain Creek Estates
Fountain Creek Estates
•
•
•
•
102 total lots
63 homes occupied
34 future lots planned
5 vacant developed lots
• Phase 2= 5 lots (all VDL)
• Phase 3= 34 lots planned
• Preliminary plat has been approved, but
developer has not submitted final plat yet
• In 2012, developer received approval for
delay of up to 5 years with an automatic
2 year extension to submit required
documents
• 32 current students
• 8 Elementary students
• 17 Middle school students
• 7 High school students
• Current student yield: .50
8
Active Single Family
North Edge
North Edge
•
•
•
•
13 total lots
5 homes occupied
Last home was built in 2013
8 available lots remain, however
no building is currently occurring
or planned
• Homes are custom built
• 1 current student (Middle school)
• Current student yield: .20
9
Active Single Family
Tanglewood Crossing
Denison ISD
Tanglewood Crossing
• 39 Total lots
• 4 homes under construction
• No current students
10
Active Multi-Family
Abbington Junction
Abbington Junction
• 56 total units
• Project was delayed by weather
in Spring 2015
• Currently under construction,
anticipated completion late
spring or early summer 2016
• No current students
Current Apartment Yields
Apartment Complex
Units
Students
Lakewood Terrace
24
8
Williamsburg
28
11
Yield
0.333
0.393
11
New Single Family Housing History
Homes built 2012 through 2014
12
Enrollment History
Year (Oct)
EE
PK
K
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
Total
Total Growth
% Growth
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
3
4
3
3
1
39
38
37
34
23
101
100
93
102
110
95
105
93
96
97
93
105
105
98
104
94
91
105
106
100
106
97
93
105
116
93
112
98
99
119
103
100
109
97
97
112
107
106
119
109
111
119
107
98
118
113
108
128
108
113
79
105
99
129
105
89
72
100
100
122
82
83
73
93
95
1,313
1,346
1,349
1,387
1,429
33
3
38
42
2.5%
0.2%
2.8%
3.0%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
Cohort Analysis
3 Year Avg.
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
K
1.035
0.930
1.097
1.078
1st
0.971
0.930
1.032
0.951
2nd
1.046
1.000
1.054
1.083
3rd
1.010
1.000
1.010
1.020
4th
1.039
1.022
1.000
1.094
5th
1.069
1.010
1.065
1.133
6th
0.981
0.973
0.990
0.980
7th
1.092
1.060
1.092
1.124
8th
0.972
1.000
0.925
0.992
9th
1.079
1.076
1.009
1.153
10th
0.966
0.917
1.008
0.972
11th
0.969
0.952
1.010
0.946
12th
0.965
1.014
0.930
0.950
Total
1,444
1,494
1,464
Growth
15
65
35
Initial Comparison Analysis
Roll‐up
Prev Cohort
3‐YR Avg.
K
110
119
114
1st
110
105
107
2nd
97
105
101
3rd
104
106
105
4th
100
109
104
5th
116
131
124
6th
119
117
117
7th
97
109
106
8th
109
108
106
9th
118
136
127
10th
113
110
109
11th
105
99
102
12th
122
116
118
13
Student Density Map
14
Ten Year Forecast
By Grade Level
Year (Oct)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
EE
3
4
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
PK
39
38
37
34
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
K
101
100
93
102
110
107
110
116
115
120
123
126
130
134
138
1st
95
105
93
96
97
109
106
108
114
113
118
121
124
128
132
2nd
93
105
105
98
104
104
117
114
116
122
121
126
130
133
137
3rd
94
91
105
106
100
105
105
119
116
118
124
123
128
132
135
4th
106
97
93
105
116
105
110
109
124
121
123
129
128
133
138
5th
93
112
98
99
119
122
111
115
116
131
127
130
136
135
140
6th
103
100
109
97
97
121
125
113
118
119
134
130
133
139
138
7th
112
107
106
119
109
103
131
131
120
126
126
142
138
141
148
8th
111
119
107
98
118
108
104
132
130
120
126
125
142
138
140
9th
113
108
128
108
113
127
117
114
143
142
131
137
136
155
150
10th
79
105
99
129
105
112
124
115
112
137
139
128
133
133
151
11th
89
72
100
100
122
104
107
120
110
107
131
133
123
127
127
12th
82
83
73
93
95
118
100
104
116
106
103
126
128
119
123
Total % Total Growth Growth
1,313
1,346
33
2.5%
1,349
3
0.2%
1,387
38
2.8%
1,429
42
3.0%
1,469
40
2.8%
1,491
22
1.5%
1,534
43
2.9%
1,574
40
2.6%
1,606
32
2.0%
1,650
44
2.7%
1,700
50
3.0%
1,733
33
1.9%
1,771
38
2.2%
1,821
50
2.8%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
•
Pottsboro ISD will reach 1,500 students by 2018
•
5 year growth = 177 students
•
2020/21 enrollment = 1,606 students
•
10 year growth = 392 students
•
2025/26 enrollment = 1,821 students
15
Ten Year Forecast
By Campus
HISTORY Current
Campus
POTTSBORO ELEMENTARY
ELEMENTARY TOTAL Elementary Absolute Change
Elementary Percent Change
POTTSBORO MIDDLE SCHOOL
POTTSBORO MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL
Middle School Absolute Change
Middle School Percent Change
POTTSBORO HIGH SCHOOL
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL
High School Absolute Change
High School Percent Change
DISTRICT TOTALS District Absolute Change
District Percent Change
Capacity 2014/15
477
439
439
3
0.69%
415
314
314
‐8
‐2.48%
475
430
430
30
7.50%
1,387
38
2.82%
2015/16
551
551
112
25.51%
443
443
129
41.08%
435
435
5
1.16%
1,429
42
3.03%
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
2016/17
554
554
3
0.54%
454
454
11
2.48%
461
461
26
5.98%
1,469
40
2.80%
2017/18
572
572
18
3.25%
471
471
17
3.74%
448
448
‐13
‐2.82%
1,491
22
1.50%
2018/19
590
590
18
3.15%
491
491
20
4.25%
453
453
5
1.12%
1,534
43
2.88%
2019/20
609
609
19
3.22%
484
484
‐7
‐1.43%
481
481
28
6.18%
1,574
40
2.61%
2020/21
618
618
9
1.48%
496
496
12
2.48%
492
492
11
2.29%
1,606
32
2.03%
2021/22
633
633
15
2.43%
513
513
17
3.43%
504
504
12
2.44%
1,650
44
2.74%
2022/23
649
649
16
2.53%
527
527
14
2.73%
524
524
20
3.97%
1,700
50
3.03%
2023/24
664
664
15
2.31%
549
549
22
4.17%
520
520
‐4
‐0.76%
1,733
33
1.94%
2024/25 2025/26
684
704
684
704
20
20
3.01% 2.92%
553
566
553
566
4
13
0.73% 2.35%
534
551
534
551
14
17
2.69% 3.18%
1,771 1,821
38
50
2.19% 2.82%
*Campuses over stated capacity are highlighted in yellow.
•
Pottsboro Elementary will likely reach 600 students by 2019
•
The Middle School and the High School will likely reach 500
students by 2021
•
Pottsboro High School is anticipated to grow by nearly 6% next fall
16
Summary
• Texas unemployment has been below the national rate for 8
consecutive years.
• Average sale price in Grayson County was $147,400 in
November, a 6% rise from November 2014.
• Construction on the Abbington Junction apartment complex is
set to be completed in late spring or early summer of 2016.
• Pottsboro fall 2015 enrollment = 1,429 students
• Five year enrollment growth of 170 students with a fall 2020
enrollment of 1,606.
• Ten year enrollment growth of 390 students, with a fall 2025
enrollment of 1,821.
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17