The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
The
State
of the
South
2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
www.mdcinc.org
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Luster of ‘Gilded Age’ Wears Off
“Welcome to the South’s Gilded Age.” That’s the opening sentence of
a speech by George Autry, the founding president of MDC, delivered at
the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill on an autumn Saturday not
long before he died in 1999.
Indeed, as the 21st Century arrived, the South as a region
seemed to have “arrived” at its moment of economic
ascendency. In summarizing trends documented in The
State of the South reports of 1996 and 1998, Autry noted
that the South had led the nation in population growth and
job creation and, by so doing, had reversed its brain drain.
“We are better off by every economic measure than we
have ever been,” he said.
late summer of 2005 and the subsequent flooding of New
Orleans devastated one of the region’s most culturally
distinctive communities.
In most Southern states, unemployment rose steeply
between 2008 and 2010. Textile, furniture and auto
manufacturing fell precipitously. Median household income
declined more in the South than in any other region. And
the South—which during the two decades between 1980
and 2000 had reduced poverty at a rate faster than the
nation as a whole—remained the region with the highest
rate of poverty. Millions of Southerners felt economic pain
as the region got knocked off its fast track toward progress.
But, of course, “Gilded Ages” come with costs and
dislocations as well as economic blessings. The South’s
surging prosperity during the 1990s was unevenly shared.
The South faced educational attainment gaps between
and among whites, blacks, and newly arrived Latinos as
the economy was demanding that you know more to earn
more. While women were an increasing presence in the
labor force, there was a drop-off among men, many of
whom entered this decade in the precarious position of
being employed in the region’s low-wage, low-skill factory
and construction jobs. “Fortunately,” MDC said in The State
of the South 1998, “the South is now in a strong position to
respond to these economic and social forces.”
In geographic terms, the South ended the decade with
three discernable patterns of distress: rural counties with
persistent poverty, metropolitan areas with a growing
population of poor or near-poor people, and manufacturing
locales burdened with massive job losses.
The economic crisis has exposed structural weaknesses
in the South—for all the progress the region has made
over last thirty years, issues obscured during the pursuit of
economic growth have reemerged. An upward trajectory
of progress has been replaced by a downward spiral of
joblessness and by a prevailing uncertainty about the future.
The South knows that many jobs lost during the past
decade will not return, but no one can know with certainty
where the region is headed in its recovery and how long it
will take to reach its “new normal.”
But now, the South feels anything but golden. The two
economic downturns that swept across the nation—the
eight-month recession of 2001 and the severe postfinancial-collapse recession of 2007-09—delivered severe
jolts to the people of the South and to the fiscal ability of
states and communities to respond. Between the two
recessions, back-to-back hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast in
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
So the question facing the South
is this: How do we return to the
trajectory we were on, of expanding
our economy and reducing poverty
faster than the nation as a whole?
South must begin now to assemble platforms for creative
thinking. Across the region, we need to organize studies
and civic discussions designed to illuminate solutions and
to foster the active engagement of people in their states’
and communities’ future. Even as it copes with the effects
of a severe economic downturn, the South should update
our economic vision, refashion our public policy, and forge a
social contract to meet the challenges of the post-recession
recovery period.
Through six previous State of the South reports, our
research has pointed to the concepts of equity and
inclusion as key elements for local, state, and regional
success. But now, equity and competitiveness are
inextricably bound to one another. Addressing inequity
makes more people fit for the competition of a global
economy, and the more competitive a community is, the
more capacity it will have to close income, wealth, and
education gaps.
What South? Why the South?
In the midst of the Great Depression of the 1930s, the
Roosevelt administration released its National Emergency
Council report with the president’s memorable declaration
that “the South is the nation’s No. 1 economic problem.”
Indeed, for much of its history, endemic poverty, oneparty politics, dependency on natural resources, lack of
education, and racial discrimination embedded in law left
the South a region set apart from the rest of America. No
one wondered why the South should be studied.
In this first installment of The State of the South 2010,
we document how the people of the region are faring at
the outset of a new decade. In subsequent installments,
The State of the South 2010 will spotlight certain
transformational factors for regional rejuvenation. This is the
seventh report to the region and its leadership produced
by MDC under the State of the South banner. This year’s
report will not come out as a glossy, one-time publication,
but rather as a series that MDC plans to disseminate
throughout the year, along with launching a new Web
site, www.StateoftheSouth.org, which will allow further
commentary on issues facing the region.
Now, having grown in population, in economic strength, and
in wealth, the South is no longer an out-of-sync, left-behind
region. Laws and court rulings that struck down legalized
segregation opened the South to an era of economic
flowering. During its “gilded age,” the South diminished ageold distinctions and narrowed economic and educational
gaps between the region and the rest of America. The
South not only joined the nation but became strong enough
to lead America’s economic growth. Seventy years after
the report of the National Emergency Council, questions
often arise as to whether there remains a “South” to study,
whether the group of states merit attention as a coherent,
definable region.
Uncertainty about the future need not be a reason for
inaction or indecision. In the subsequent chapters, we
will analyze issues that our state and local leaders—
in government, in business, in nonprofits, and in
philanthropy—need to address as the region emerges
from the depths of recession and repositions itself in a
restructured economy. The states and communities of the
But why should the South get attention only when it is
weak? Perhaps more than at any time since the founding
2
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
and earliest era of an independent United States, national
leaders arise from the South among both Democrats and
Republicans—and the region needs to produce even more.
In today’s South flourish corporations and commercial
banks of global stature, giants of the entertainment and
media industries, foreign and domestic automobile makers,
prominent hospitals and health-care institutions, and research
universities of international importance. Why not examine
the South and its challenges now that it is strong enough to
address its own problems and lead the nation?
of government officials, public policy makers, private-sector
civic leaders, educators, journalists, and philanthropies.
Through these networks, ideas travel across state lines.
For the purposes of this report, MDC has defined the South
as comprising 13 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida,
Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina,
South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West Virginia.
There are many different definitions of the South. The
Census Bureau, from which much of the data in this report
are drawn, includes several additional states in its three
Southern regional divisions. Regional policy organizations
have different mixes of states. We have chosen the 11
states that seceded to form the Confederacy at the outset
of the Civil War, as well as two additional states (Kentucky
and West Virginia) that share the cultural, geographic, and
economic characteristics of their neighbors.
Even as it has become much like the rest of America, the
South retains distinctive traits. The most obvious, perhaps,
is that a layer of cultural conservatism hangs more heavily
over the South than other regions. The swift transformation
of its economic and social landscapes has not completely
washed away its history of racial discrimination and
economic distress. As it becomes a more metropolitan and
less rural region, and as it becomes more multicultural with
the immigration of Latinos, the South is becoming a stage
where some of the most vexing issues of American life will
play out in the near future.
This report does not purport to “rank” states and localities.
Even as we identify social and economic characteristics
common to the South as a region, the report points out
differences among sub-sections of the South to call
attention to people and places in distress and emphasize
issues that will face the region—and the nation as a
whole—in the decade to come.
And the South remains a region in which decision makers
learn from what they see in nearby states and communities.
The region contains networks, some formal, some informal,
3
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
A lost decade
Economists are calling it a “lost decade.” From
2000 to 2009, job losses set the nation back
10 years in the supply of jobs. In the South, 1.8
million jobs disappeared between September
2008 and November 2009. With 30 percent
of the nation’s jobs and 33 percent of the
population, the South accounted for 29 percent
of the nation’s jobs lost in that period.
A Decade’s Job Gains… Lost
Job Loss September 2008-November 2009
State
Total Employment
Sep 08
Total Employment
Nov 09
Job Loss
Sep 2008 to Nov 2009
Alabama
1,988,900
1,897,400
91,500
Arkansas
1,205,800
1,176,100
29,700
Florida
7,694,200
7,323,600
370,600
Georgia
4,083,500
3,851,500
232,000
Kentucky
1,845,000
1,758,800
86,200
Louisiana
2,102,000
1,906,500
195,500
Mississippi
1,142,100
1,099,700
42,400
North Carolina
4,131,900
3,920,000
211,900
South Carolina
1,916,900
1,845,700
71,200
Tennessee
2,764,100
2,646,600
117,500
10,601,300
10,375,800
225,500
3,764,600
3,646,600
118,000
763,700
742,000
21,700
145,025,900
138,794,700
6,231,200
44,004,000
42,190,300
1,813,700
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia
US
Total in South
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
The two recessions of the past decade
dealt harsh blows to the manufacturing
sector, which today represents no
more than 8 percent of the Southern
workforce. The South’s textile and
furniture industries had already
been in decline due to the forces
of globalization and technological
change. The textile belt faces the
prospect that most of its lost jobs
will not return, no matter the pace of
overall economic recovery.
Also pummeled were the South’s
newer auto-making enterprises,
factories that Southern states
competed to attract by offering
financial incentives, tax breaks, and
infrastructure construction. The
Atlanta Federal Reserve Board reports
that auto-assembly employment fell
by 16 percent from early 2008 to
late 2009—from 24,800 workers to
21,200. General Motors assembly
plants in Shreveport, LA, and Spring
Hill, TN, were in jeopardy.
In the broad sweep, the gap between
the metro South and the rural South
continues to widen. The South
added 20.2 million jobs between
1987 and 2007, and nearly nine out
of 10 jobs gained were located in
metropolitan areas.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
It stands to reason that metro areas
would suffer the greatest loss in terms
of total jobs. Still, as DailyYonder.com,
the news service of the Kentuckybased Center for Rural Strategies, has
pointed out, unemployment rates in
rural counties have generally exceeded
rates in urban and exurban counties
(outer-ring suburbs) in the South. The
major exception is Florida, where the
urban jobless rate of 11.3 percent
in October 2009 exceeded both the
rural and exurban rates. “One reason
rural counties have shown consistently
higher unemployment rates during this
recession is education,” DailyYonder.
com has reported. “Rural America has
a lower percentage of BAs and that
results in higher unemployment. …
Unemployment drops as people get
more education.”
In the Daily Yonder’s tracking of the
course of the recent recession, two
findings stand out: One is that the
downturn has had a widespread
impact on the Southeast’s rural and
exurban communities.
Of the 50 rural and
exurban counties that
lost the most jobs since
the recession began,
28 are in the South.
Metros Advance, Rural Grows Slowly
Increase in Jobs in the South, 1987-2007
2,282,732
(11.3%)
17,948,180
(88.7%)
Total Metro Increase
Total Nonmetro Increase
Source: MDC tabulation of BEA Regional Economic Information System data, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2009.
Of those, 10 are in Alabama. “No state
has lost a higher percentage of its jobs
since the recession began in December
2007 than Alabama,” the DailyYonder
reported. Not even Michigan. Rural
Alabama has 13 percent fewer jobs
than it had in late 2007.
The second finding is that the recent
recession struck some states’ job
markets with a swift, cutting blow.
Florida’s unemployment rate zoomed
up from 4.7 percent in December
2007 to 11.2 percent in October
2009, North Carolina’s from 4.9
percent to 10.7 percent, and South
Carolina’s from 5.7 percent to 12.1
percent in the same period.
The “lost decade” ended with
significant differences in unemployment
5
rates by gender, race, and ethnicity.
In 2009, nearly every Southern
state had a higher percentage of
men without jobs than women
without jobs. The only exception
was Alabama, where both men and
women had unemployment rates
just above 11 percent. Over the past
year, every Southern state had a
substantially higher percentage of
unemployed blacks than unemployed
whites—and in five states, the black
unemployment rate was double white
unemployment. North Carolina and
Tennessee had the highest rates of
Latino unemployment—higher than
the national rate—while in most states
in the region Latino unemployment
rates tended to be higher than white
unemployment but lower than
black unemployment.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Tough Times for Men, Blacks, and Latinos
2009 Annual Average Employment Status by Sex, Race, Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity
Total
Unemployment
Rate
Men
Unemployment
Rate
Women
Unemployment
Rate
White
Unemployment
Rate
Black or African
American
Unemployment
Rate
Hispanic or Latino
Unemployment
Rate
Alabama
11.2
11.1
11.2
8.6
19.3
11.1
Arkansas
7.8
8.2
7.4
6.6
14.2
6.2
Florida
10.4
11.5
9.1
9.6
15.4
11.6
Georgia
9.8
10.3
9.2
7.9
14.2
12
Kentucky
10.6
11.1
10.1
16.5
9.6
Louisiana
7.1
7.9
6.2
5.9
10.4
7.2
Mississippi
9.2
11
7.3
6.6
14.1
9.8
9.2
14.8
13.6
9
19.5
11.8
State
10
North Carolina
10.4
12.1
8.6
South Carolina
11.8
13.4
10.1
Tennessee
10.8
12.3
9
9.7
15.9
17.4
Texas
7.5
7.7
7.3
7
12.1
9
Virginia
6.6
7.3
6
5.4
11.2
8.1
West Virginia
8
9.8
5.8
7.9
8.3
-
United States
9.3
10.3
8.1
8.5
14.8
12.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The hard realities embedded in these
data pose difficult yet urgent issues
for state and local policymakers. A
consensus has formed that job growth
will not become robust enough in
the near future to both absorb new
entrants into the labor market and to
put all of today’s unemployed back to
work. Even given a modest recovery,
no amount of industry recruiting is
likely to dig the South out of the
deep job-loss hole anytime soon.
What can, and should, the states and
communities of the South do in the
face of stunning job losses, especially
in factories, construction trades, and
finance, where Southern minorities
and men had clustered? While states
have much less ability to apply
stimulus than the federal government,
6
they have tools at their disposal,
including assistance to small
businesses, encouraging innovation,
preparing the way for “green” jobs in
energy and environmental endeavors,
and—it should be on the table—
considering opportunities for publicfinanced jobs to alleviate pockets of
debilitating distress.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
A changing population
From 1987 to 2007, millions of people moved to the South, drawn in
large part by the 20.3 million jobs added in the region during those 20
years. Whites, blacks, and Latinos moved into the region in search of its
job opportunities and its quality of life.
In the 1987-2007 period, every Southern state except West Virginia gained population. Population growth, however, was
far from uniform.
Atlantic Coast (and Texas) Surge
Percent Change in Population, 1987 to 2007
Alabama
15.2% (611,333)
Arkansas
20.8% (488,200)
Florida
51.7% (6,202,244)
Georgia
53.4% (3,314,818)
Kentucky
15.0% (552,978)
Lousiana
.07% (29,159)
Mississippi
12.8% (332,485)
North Carolina
41.2% (2,637,901)
South Carolina
30.3% (1,024,407)
Tennessee
28.6% (1,366,177)
Texas
43.4% (7,221,665)
Virginia
West Virginia
29.8% (1,766,502)
-2.6% (47,747)
United States
-10.0%
24.4% (59,001,396)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Source: MDC tabulation of BEA Regional Economic Information System data, U.S. Department of Commerce, 2009.
In general, Texas and the states along
the Atlantic seaboard grew more
robustly than the mid-South states.
Seven states—Georgia, Florida, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and
Tennessee—experienced population
growth faster than the U.S. growth rate
of 24 percent. Arkansas, Alabama,
Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana
fell below the national rate. Louisiana’s
slow-growth rate turned negative in
the wake of the post-Katrina flooding
of New Orleans.
The Hispanic population continued to
grow across the region over the past
7
decade. Texas and Florida, already
home to millions of Spanish-speaking
residents and family members, added
2 million and 1 million, respectively, in
the 2000 to 2008 period. Among the
13 states, only Texas fell below the
national growth rate of 28.7 percent in
Hispanic population.
2,682,715
95,076
123,838
3,725,173
729,604
94,176
140,640
56,577
636,786
169,239
215,760
8,566,395
506,843
19,179
45,432,158
15,132,051
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
8
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
West Virginia
United States
South Total
4,034,805
10,126,340
6,900
177,303
1,896,729
91,922
74,163
257,823
17,008
32,902
34,237
294,377
1,042,458
61,889
47,094
Change in
Hispanic
Population
(2000-2006/8)
36.4%
28.7%
56.2%
53.8%
28.4%
74.2%
78.0%
68.0%
43.0%
30.5%
57.1%
67.6%
38.9%
71.2%
62.1%
Percent
Change,
Hispanic
Population
Source: MDC tabulation of American Community Survey Data, 2000 and 2006-8
11,097,246
35,305,818
12,279
329,540
6,669,666
378,963
39,569
107,738
59,939
435,227
86,866
148,755
Arkansas
75,830
Hispanic
Population
(2000)
122,924
Hispanic
Population
(2006-2008)
Alabama
State
A Growing Minority
Change in the South’s Population, 2000-2008
18,495,573
37,131,771
61,469
1,505,001
2,735,332
1,011,988
1,245,609
1,917,297
1,083,528
1,366,990
316,543
2,824,572
2,779,331
438,247
1,209,666
Black
Population
(2006-2008)
16,749,335
34,658,190
57,232
1,390,293
2,404,566
932,809
1,185,216
1,737,545
1,033,809
1,451,944
295,994
2,349,542
2,335,505
418,950
1,155,930
Black
Population
(2000)
1,746,238
2,473,581
4,237
114,708
330,766
79,179
60,393
179,752
49,719
-84,954
20,549
475,030
443,826
19,297
53,736
Change
in Black
Population
(2000-2006/8)
10.4%
7.1%
7.4%
8.3%
13.8%
8.5%
5.1%
10.3%
4.8%
-5.9%
6.9%
20.2%
19.0%
4.6%
4.6%
Percent
Change,
Black
Population
72,030,935
223,965,009
1,708,095
5,442,609
17,024,639
4,873,827
2,971,558
6,350,905
1,750,992
2,794,194
3,775,752
5,911,318
13,948,307
2,224,620
3,254,119
White
Population
(2006-2008)
66,038,783
211,460,626
1,718,777
5,120,110
14,799,505
4,563,310
2,695,560
5,804,656
1,746,099
2,856,161
3,640,889
5,327,281
12,465,029
2,138,598
3,162,808
White
Population
(2000)
5,992,152
12,504,383
-10,682
322,499
2,225,134
310,517
275,998
546,249
4,893
-61,967
134,863
584,037
1,483,278
86,022
91,311
Change
in White
Population
(2000-2006/8)
9.1%
5.9%
-0.6%
6.3%
15.0%
6.8%
10.2%
9.4%
0.3%
-2.2%
3.7%
11.0%
11.9%
4.0%
2.9%
Percent
Change,
White
Population
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Latino Growth
Change in Population 2000-2006/8
South Total
West Virginia
Virginia
Texas
Tennessee
South Carolina
White Percent Change
North Carolina
Black Percent Change
Mississippi
Hispanic Percent Change
Lousiana
Kentucky
Georgia
Florida
Arkansas
Alabama
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: MDC tabulation of American Community Survey Data, 2000 and 2006-8
In the decade since 2000, the South
experienced what demographer
William H. Frey has described as
a “boom, and then bust” in terms
of people migrating into the South.
The region continued growing, but
especially after 2007, its growth slowed
significantly. And Florida actually lost
population in the year 2009, a stunning
reversal after more than a generation of
fast-paced in-migration.
Even with the slowdown toward the
end of the decade, Florida, Texas,
North Carolina, South Carolina,
Georgia, and Tennessee ranked
9
among the top 10 states in rate of
population gain. The Census Bureau
projects substantial population growth,
with Texas, Florida, North Carolina,
and Georgia in the top eight states in
population by 2030.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Aging Anglos
Median Age of State Population by Race and Ethnic Group, 2008
State
Total
White Alone,
Not Hispanic
Black or African
American
Hispanic
Alabama
37.5
40.6
31.5
24.9
Arkansas
37.2
40.4
29.5
24.6
Florida
40.2
45.9
30.2
33.7
Georgia
34.9
38.9
31.0
26.4
Kentucky
37.7
39.0
30.6
25.8
Louisiana
35.6
39.2
29.8
29.6
Mississippi
35.3
39.7
29.6
26.9
North Carolina
36.9
40.3
32.8
25.3
South Carolina
37.6
40.9
32.6
25.9
Tennessee
37.7
40.2
30.7
25.5
Texas
33.2
40.1
30.6
27.3
Virginia
37.1
40.1
33.0
27.8
West Virginia
40.6
41.3
31.5
28.7
United States
36.8
41.1
31.4
27.7
Source: MDC tabulation of data from the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
10
Population growth and demographic
shifts have given the South an ageand-ethnic profile that will test the
region’s ability to adapt in the near
future. As the baby-boom generation
edges increasingly toward retirement,
the South’s white population, in
aggregate, grows “older.” The
median age of the non-Hispanic
white population of Southern states
ranges from 39 in Kentucky to nearly
46 in Florida. As a whole, the South
is kept “younger” by its black and
Latino populations. The median age
of blacks across the Southern states
ranges from 29 to 33. Latinos are
younger still, with a median age of
nearly 34 in Florida, but 29 and below
in every other Southern state. These
data define a clear imperative: The
South must strive now to close gaps
in educational attainment and job
prospects between whites, blacks
and Latinos, because the region’s
economic and civic health will depend
in the future on active and creative
participation of blacks and Latinos,
filling roles now held by whites of the
baby-boom generation.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Income declines, poverty rebounds
Though the South’s “gilded age” did not eliminate stubborn poverty,
especially in rural stretches of Appalachia, the Black Belt, the Mississippi
Delta, and the Rio Grande valley, the region’s growth surge made a dent
in poverty as an enduring characteristic of the South.
Every Southern state had a lower
poverty rate in 2000 than it had in
1980. In the early ’80s, several states
in the region had poverty rates of
more than 20 percent—that is, one
out of every five people lived alone or
in a family and household with income
below the official line (now roughly
$20,000 for a family of four—
a grossly inadequate measure of a
livable income). By 2000, most states’
poverty rates fell below 15 percent,
with the exception of Arkansas and
Louisiana at 17 percent.
A Poverty Gap Narrowing, Then Widening
Share of Persons Below the Poverty Level, South and United
States, by Year, 1980-2008
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
18.0 1981
18.6 1982
17.7 1983
16.7 1984
16.5 1985
16.6 1986
16.5 1987
16.5 1988
15.8 1989
16.2 1990
16.5 1991
17.5 1992
17.5 1993
16.4 1994
16.0 1995
15.4 1996
15.0 1997
14.1 1998
13.5 1999
13.0 2000
13.8 2001
14.2 2002
14.5 2003
14.5 2004
14.2 2005
14.1 2006
14.5 2007
14.7 2008
15.0
15.2
14.4
14.0
13.6
13.4
13.0
12.8
13.5
14.2
14.8
15.1
14.5
13.8
13.7
13.3
12.7
11.9
11.3
11.7
12.1
12.5
12.7
12.8
12.3
12.5
13.2
U.S.
17.0 1980
South
14.0
10.0%
13.0
12.0%
Notes: Shaded boxes indicate partial or full recession year. The y-axis does not start at 0% to better
illustrate changes.
Source: South by North Strategies, Ltd. analysis of March Current Population Survey, various years.
11
But now recession has bent the curve
upward. The economic tailspins over
the past decade have increased the
rate at which Southerners slid into
poverty or near-poverty. Poverty has
not returned to rates of 30 years ago,
but most states now have higher
poverty rates than they had in 2000.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
A similar trend becomes evident in
looking at the share of Southerners
living below 200 percent of the federal
poverty line (200 percent of the poverty
line means $40,000 for a family of
four). Studies show that the poverty
population consists both of the longterm persistently poor and people who
move in and out of poverty as they
lose or gain a job or encounter a health
issue or some other personal difficulty.
Thus the share of people living below
the standard of $40,000 for a family of
four serves as a gauge of the extent
of the poor and working near-poor.
With the exception of Virginia, every
Southern state has a larger percentage
of people below 200 percent of
poverty than the national rate of
32 percent—and in three states,
Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi,
two out of five people live in poverty
or near-poverty.
The recessions’ downward tug on the
economic well-being of Southerners
emerges from another data-set:
median household income, the point
at which half live above and half below.
For the nation as a whole, inflationadjusted median household income
declined from $52,163 in 2007 to
$50,303 in 2008.
While the nation’s
median household
income fell by 3.6
percent in that period,
it fell even more—4.9
percent—in the South.
But as the accompanying chart
shows, median household income
had begun eroding even before the
recession in several Southern states as
a percentage of the national median.
What the data suggest, therefore,
is that, as the region was gaining
educated, affluent people during the
“gilded age,” a lot of Southerners—
including long-time residents and
newly arrived workers—did not fully
share in the expanding prosperity. Just
as U.S. median household income
12
went up from 1987 to 2007, so it
did in the South in inflation-adjusted
dollars. And yet, in 2007, the South
had a median household income of
87.5 percent of the national median,
down from 89 percent in 1997.
Once again, Southern states did
not all move in the same direction;
they did not experience equivalent
mixes of job gains and losses, nor
an influx of high-skill and low-skill
employees. Several states saw gains
in median household incomes, both
in real dollars and as a percentage of
the national median. And yet, three
states—Kentucky, Louisiana, and
North Carolina—actually experienced
a decline in median household income
in real dollars from 1997 and 2007.
Seven Southern states had declines
in median household income as a
percentage of the national median
from 1987 to 2007, and nine states
had declines from 1997 to 2007.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Some states fall further behind the nation
Median Income by State, 1987- 2007
* Income reported in 2008 inflation-adjusted dollars
State
Median Household
Income, 2007
Median Household
Income as a
Percentage of U.S.
Median Household
Income, 2007
Median Household
Income, 1997
Median Household
Income as a
Percentage of U.S.
Median Household
Income, 1997
Median Household
Income, 1987
Median Household
Income as a
Percentage of U.S.
Median Household
Income, 1987
Alabama
$43,834
84.0%
$42,720
86.3%
$35,779
75.9%
Arkansas
$42,362
81.2%
$34,993
70.7%
$34,135
72.5%
Florida
$47,554
91.2%
$43,411
87.7%
$44,400
94.2%
Georgia
$50,510
96.8%
$49,039
99.1%
$48,434
102.8%
Kentucky
$40,968
78.5%
$44,744
90.4%
$37,482
79.6%
Louisiana
$42,900
82.2%
$44,487
89.9%
$38,707
82.2%
Mississippi
$38,711
74.2%
$38,119
77.0%
$33,565
71.2%
North Carolina
$45,185
86.6%
$47,938
96.9%
$41,266
87.6%
South Carolina
$45,912
88.0%
$45,828
92.6%
$45,416
96.4%
Tennessee
$42,778
82.0%
$40,978
82.8%
$38,399
81.5%
Texas
$47,823
91.7%
$46,915
94.8%
$44,821
95.1%
Virginia
$61,434
117.8%
$57,458
116.1%
$54,385
115.4%
West Virginia
$43,708
83.8%
$36,767
74.3%
$31,198
66.2%
United States
$52,163
South Total
$45,668
$49,497
87.5%
$44,107
Source: MDC tabulation of Census Bureau Data, 2009.
13
$47,115
89.1%
$40,614
86.2%
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Youngsters hit hard
Child Poverty Rates, 2008
State
Child Poverty Rate
(%)
Number of Poor
Children
Alabama
21.7
240,518
Arkansas
24.9
171,849
Florida
18.3
721,284
Georgia
20.1
501,892
Kentucky
23.5
232,700
Louisiana
24.7
270,794
Mississippi
30.4
228,572
North Carolina
19.9
439,518
South Carolina
21.7
227,868
Tennessee
21.8
316,476
Texas
22.5
1,497,803
Virginia
13.8
246,734
23
86,988
US
18.2
13,240,870
Total in South
21.1
5,182,996
West Virginia
Source: Isaacs, Julia B. The Effects of the Recession on Child Poverty: Poverty
Statistics for 2008 and Growth in Need during 2009. Brookings, 2009.
14
Most Southern states had child
poverty rates above 20 percent
in 2008—that is, one out of five
children—with the exceptions of North
Carolina, Florida, and Virginia. A study
by The Brookings Institution looked at
increases in food-stamp participation
(now known as the Supplemental
Nutrition Assistance Program, SNAP) in
2009 in combination with child poverty
rates. The Brookings study found
several Southern states among those
whose children were at particularly
high risk of poverty: Alabama, Georgia,
Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee
and Texas. Average monthly SNAP
participation between 2008 and 2009
increased by 485,000 people in Florida
and 482,000 in Texas, beating even
California’s increase of 455,000 SNAP
participants in 2009.
The two recessions in the decade just
completed cut into the income, wealth,
and general well-being of Southerners
up and down the economic spectrum.
But an upsurge in poverty is especially
distressing—not only because it has
called at least a temporary halt to a
regional success story, but mostly
because it signals a rise in related
community and personal distress: food
insecurity, family stress and breakups,
housing deterioration, ill-health, and, in
general, a slide back into a struggle for
mere economic survival.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
State governments feel the pinch
Since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Americans have looked to their
national government for stimulus to counteract an economic downturn.
State and local governments, however, have balanced-budget restrictions
that prevent them from injecting stimulus spending when it is needed.
A Difficult Balancing Act
State Budget General Fund Expenditure Change,
Fiscal Years 2009 and 2010
State
Budget Expenditure
Change 2009
Budget Expenditure
Change 2010
Alabama
13.3
-4.1
Arkansas
1.9
1.7
Florida
-13.5
-11.6
Georgia
-10.2
-1.2
Kentucky
-3.1
-6.3
Louisiana
-2.6
-3.9
Mississippi
0.6
-5.3
North Carolina
-4.2
-3.2
South Carolina
-19.6
1
Tennessee
-1.6
-7.5
Texas
7.5
-15.5
Virginia
-7.6
-0.6
West Virginia
5.9
-4.2
South Average
-2.55
-4.67
US Average
-3.4
-5.4
In fact, the recessions of the past decade have sapped
states’ fiscal capacity to respond to needs arising from plant
closings, job losses, and a general fall-off in business, not
to mention their ability to sustain and accelerate
improvements in education.
Southern states have reported general budget shortfalls
ranging from 10 percent to more than 20 percent.
States have imposed hiring freezes and furloughed
public employees. Four states have cut the children’s
health insurance program and Medicaid, which is health
insurance for the poor. States also have reduced spending
for elementary and secondary schools, as well as for
community colleges and universities. Cuts in community
colleges have come even as the recession has driven
enrollments to capacity limits as out-of-work people seek
retraining for different jobs.
Even though economists suggest that the recession has
bottomed out and the nation has entered a recovery period,
the persistence of high unemployment and the sluggish
rebound of consumer spending, as well as other factors,
point to another round of reductions in services funded in
state budgets adopted in 2010.
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers
15
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Different directions, different speeds
Before the onset of the “gilded age,” the
South appeared a unified region of states with
similar characteristics—a largely rural place of
cotton and cows, tobacco and textiles, oneparty politics, and, hanging over everything, an
embedded system of racial segregation. But,
obviously, the region had its internal cultural
differences, political divisions, and economic
rivalries—not only among the states but often
between neighboring towns. To understand
the region, you have to comprehend how
the Ozarks and the Mississippi Delta, the Hill
Country of Texas and the Low Country of South
Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans, Mobile and
Richmond, the Cajuns of Louisiana and ScotchIrish of Appalachia, were both distinctive and in
their own ways Southern at the same time.
16
To assess the effects of the downturns
between 2000 and 2009, one must
see the South in its many complexities.
The recessions have left their mark
everywhere, but the bruising is deeper
in some places than others. State and
metropolitan data, such as contained
in this report and other regional
assessments, can serve to spotlight
issues and stimulate responses, but
it’s important for the region’s decision
makers to gather and digest data within
their own states and communities.
For example, statewide data reflecting
the relative affluence of the Virginia
suburbs of Washington, DC, do not
fully capture the dynamics of rural
struggle in Southside Virginia. Places
with strong universities and diversified
economies have weathered the
recessionary storms more resiliently
than communities dependent on
traditional, low-skill industries. So
to comprehend the condition of
the South at the beginning of the
21st Century’s second decade, it is
important to illuminate trends and
differences within the region.
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Big, Bigger, and Biggest Southern Economies
Gross State Product, 1997, 2000, 2008 (in millions)
State
United States
1997
2000
2008
8,237,994
9,749,103
14,165,565
Texas
599,492
727,233
1,223,511
Florida
391,451
471,316
744,120
North Carolina
228,864
273,698
400,192
Georgia
237,468
290,887
397,756
Virginia
211,921
260,743
397,025
Tennessee
153,405
174,851
252,127
Louisiana
113,261
131,520
222,218
Alabama
102,433
114,576
170,014
Kentucky
105,725
111,900
156,436
South Carolina
97,397
112,514
156,384
Arkansas
59,182
66,801
98,331
Mississippi
57,954
64,266
91,782
West Virginia
38,795
41,476
61,652
The region’s two most populous
states, Texas and Florida, have the
South’s two largest economies.
Clearly, Texas has out-performed
Florida during the past decade.
Texas ended last year with an
unemployment rate of 8 percent,
three and a half points below Florida’s
jobless rate. In addition, Texas’ gross
state product, as measured by the
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
grew throughout the decade—from
$727 billion in 2000 to $1.2 trillion in
2008—while Florida’s GSP flattened
around $740 billion toward the end of
the decade. Foreclosures in Florida
rose from 44,000 in August 2008
to 55,000 in September 2009, far
outpacing all other Southern states.
By contrast, Texas had 13,000
foreclosures in September 2009.
Put aside Texas and Florida, and
the rest of the South comes in two
economic clusters. The Atlantic
seaboard states of Virginia, North
Carolina, and Georgia form one
cluster with 2008 GSPs of roughly
$400 billion. The remaining states
have 2008 GSPs that range from
$252 billion in Tennessee to $61 billion
in West Virginia.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
“The U.S. economy’s performance
is driven largely by that of its major
metropolitan economies, some of
which are recovering and some of
which are still in recession,” said The
17
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Brookings Institution in December
2009. Much the same can be said
of the South. For example, of the 13
“corridors” designated by the federal
government for the development of
high-speed rail passenger service, four
would run through and connect major
population centers in the South. In
January, when $8 billion in economic
stimulus money was dedicated to
these corridors, Southern projects
received more than $1.8 billion. The
rail corridor map provides yet another
indicator of how much the South has
become a region increasingly defined
by and economically dependent on
metropolitan areas.
The Brookings Metropolitan Policy
Program has tracked recession
and recovery in America’s largest
metropolitan areas, and its analyses
illustrate differences within the South.
Of the 20 strongest-performing metro
areas in the 3rd quarter 2009, 11 were
in the South: five in Texas while also
including Baton Rouge, Little Rock,
Columbia and Virginia Beach. Of the
20 weakest, eight were in Florida, the
most of any state.
In late 2009, unemployment rates in
several Southern metros—Atlanta,
Jacksonville, FL, Charlotte, and
Louisville—exceeded the national rate.
Meanwhile, metros centered on San
Antonio, Austin, Virginia Beach, and
New Orleans had unemployment rates
below the national rate. By several
economic measures, Louisiana and
its major metros appeared to perform
better than much of the South—in
large part because of the stimulus
from the infusion of assistance after
Hurricane Katrina in 2005. At the same
time, Georgia and its powerful Atlanta
metro area found their economies
staggering as a result of declines in
manufacturing and construction, as
well as finance.
Overall Performance of the Largest 100 Metros
Strongest 20 metro areas
Second-strongest 20 metro areas
Middle 20 metro areas
Second-weakest metro areas
Weakest 20 metro areas
This MetroMonitor’s Overall Performance combines
metropolitan rankings on four key indicators:
1. P
ercent employment change from peak quarter
to 3rd quarter 2009
2. P
ercentage point change in unemployment
state from September 2008 to September 2009
3. P
ercent GMP change from peak quarter to 3rd
quarter 2009
4. P
ercent change in House Price index from 3rd
quarter 2008 to 3rd quarter 2009
Source: Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program
18
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
The 2008 election year also provided
evidence of a South going in different
directions. Eight years ago, Republican
George W. Bush of Texas won the
electoral votes from every Southern
state in defeating his Democratic
opponent, Al Gore of Tennessee.
Then, in 2008, Democrat Barack
Obama won three Southern states;
in becoming the nation’s first black
president, he won the electoral votes
of North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida,
which had once seceded from the
union in an effort to sustain slavery.
County-level results show that the
Democratic president won in the
region’s major metropolitan areas,
as well as communities with large
black populations in the Mississippi
Delta and the Black Belt. Meanwhile,
Republican John McCain received
a stronger vote than Bush had four
years earlier in smaller cities and rural
counties of West Virginia, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
nation. Voter turnout serves as a
prime indicator of civic awareness
and involvement. The 2008 election
brought a substantial increase in voter
turnout in every state in the region,
though most states still fell below
the national turnout, which was 63
percent of the voting age population.
Significantly, the three states won
by Obama exceeded the national
turnout—North Carolina and Virginia at
67 percent and Florida at 65 percent.
Historically, the South has had lower
voter turnout than the rest of the
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1976-2008
2008: %
VAP Voted
2004: %
VAP Voted
2000: %
VAP Voted
1996: %
VAP Voted
1992: %
VAP Voted
1988: %
VAP Voted
1984: %
VAP Voted
1980: %
VAP Voted
1976: %
VAP Voted
Alabama
61.8
56.34
50.74
48.34
55.73
47.26
50.89
49.12
46.35
Arkansas
52.62
52.35
47.05
47.14
53.74
48.75
53.28
51.89
51.34
Florida
64.93
62.77
53.22
50.57
55.09
48.71
51.91
51.91
51.15
Georgia
62.27
54.72
45.41
43.01
47.58
40.24
42.32
41.67
41.86
Kentucky
58.04
58.21
51.25
47.74
53.76
49.22
51.95
50.3
48.37
Louisiana
58.74
59.28
55.06
57.23
59.61
55.59
59.02
54.39
48.32
Mississippi
59.97
54.1
48.36
45.28
52.59
51.9
53.69
52.41
48.39
North Carolina
67.11
56.83
49.66
45.4
50.73
44.26
47.71
43.78
42.97
South Carolina
59.58
52.15
46.71
40.99
45.74
39.85
41.32
40.9
40.33
Tennessee
57.62
55.67
49.15
47.14
52.77
45.86
49.71
49.09
48.39
Texas
54.26
52.23
47.8
44.36
52.44
49.47
52.11
47.27
46.76
Virginia
66.97
59.91
53.86
49.52
55.16
49.91
51.8
48.58
47.82
West Virginia
49.96
53.4
46.29
46.09
50.42
48.36
53.9
53.42
57.33
United States
63.01
60.59
54.24
51.37
58.32
53.3
55.91
54.72
54.95
State
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Gearing up for transformation
So far, the South’s leadership has been consumed with coping. Now,
challenging questions arise: How can the region prepare for recovery
and beyond? Knowing that there’s no return to pre-2000 “normal,” how
should the South think and plan for a post-recession resurgence? And
how can we learn from the social and economic strides forward of our
“New South” cities and apply them to the remaining vestiges of the “Old
South,” so the whole South can move forward together?
Despite the setbacks it has suffered since 2000, the South
today is, as a whole, stronger than it was before the “gilded
age.” It remains in a position to create a model for the
nation in a recovery that creates a more equitable society, a
more competitive array of entrepreneurs and workers, and
a more engaged citizenry. To do that, civic, business, and
political leaders must acknowledge that on top of lingering
structural inequities, the recent recession has widened
disparities by hitting the South’s various people and
communities differently and unevenly.
As Southerners have come to realize over the past decade,
we all live in a global economy in which the United States
doesn’t and can’t control events or the flows of capital and
labor. The two recent recessions have proved especially
disruptive to mainstays of the Southern economy, disruptive
not only to small towns with their small factories but also to
sprawling cities with banks in tall towers.
Despite the outpouring of statistics from governments and
think tanks, it is impossible to capture the full effects of
the recessions on the attitudes and perceived prospects
of people. Through its “gilded age,” the South developed
a broader middle class than it had ever known. In addition
to data on unemployment, poverty, and other economic
dislocations, the full story of the recession also includes
people who have seen their savings wither, who worry that
their children will not be better off, who put off up-keep on
their homes, who borrow more to meet the rising costs of
college where states are cutting budgets, or who re-enter
the education system through a community college for retooling of themselves.
From his vantage point in Southside Virginia as president
of the Danville Regional Foundation, Karl Stauber sees the
people of his region arrayed into three economic strata
or subcultures: prosperity, subsistence, and survival.
He argues that the two recessions of the past decade
disrupted the promise that people and families who worked
hard and played by the rules would move up the continuum,
from survival to subsistence to prosperity. Stauber’s analysis
serves as a useful guide to assessing the condition of the
South at the tail-end of a deep recession: too many people
have been knocked back downward from newfound—but
fleeting—middle-class prosperity.
The impending recovery will not be driven by reassembling
the pieces of a shattered economy. Rather, the recovery
should be driven by ideas—ideas that emerge from civic
discussions and purposeful, organized thinking that looks
20
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
beyond current difficulties and addresses the inequities and
disparities that will hold people back even when the current
low economic tide rises again.
The South needs ideas on how
to invest so that more people can
thrive in the global economy. It
needs to assess and deploy its
public and private assets in such
a way that equity is seen as an
economic imperative in the process
of recovery. The more people who
are brought into the recovery with
skills at their command, the more
equitable and competitive the
region’s states, cities, and towns
will become.
Moreover, the region needs to regenerate a sense of the
common good while managing the dynamics of immigration
and diversity. The region has the need and the opportunity
to do so with leaders who are willing to make the case for
the importance of equity.
No one can say for certain what is coming next year, and
the next year, and the year after that. But we know, as
we said a decade ago, that the South has grown strong
enough to respond capably to powerful economic and
social forces. States and communities have a better
chance of succeeding by grappling with hard realities
and seeking creative solutions. If the South is to have
a prosperous future with opportunity available to all its
citizens, now is the time to focus on what it will take—not
simply to transition, but to transform our thinking and
our vision. In the white papers to come, we will offer our
analyses and findings in five broad categories: learning,
earning, living, connecting, and leading. We do not
propose a formula for every state and community; rather,
we hope to assemble data and analysis in such a way as
to foster a change in the conversation across the region—
and thus to impel Southerners to think beyond their
current difficulties and to imagine a region that confidently
enters into a time of transformation.
21
The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Preparing for transformational change
Learning—Southern authorities spent much of the
20th Century in an ultimately vain attempt to sustain the
unsustainable: that is, to maintain racially segregated
schools and offer only enough education to support a
low-wage, low-skill economy. Legal segregation collapsed
under the weight of both moral and constitutional
scrutiny. Over the past 40 years, a fast-paced shift to
a knowledge-based economy drove Southern states
to adopt waves of education reform. Indeed, several
Southern governors, both Democrats and Republicans,
made a mark by launching initiatives to bolster public
education, so much so that the South now features model
programs of school improvement.
And yet, the region still finds itself bound by 19th century
structures at a time when it should be envisioning 21st
century schooling. This is a moment in which the South
can learn from itself, from experiments and initiatives taking
place within its own states and communities. Across the
region, new initiatives have blossomed to expand early
childhood education; so have important initiatives to link
high schools and community colleges. For much of the past
decade, Southern states have sought to address their high
rate of drop-outs from high schools. Even as they must do
better in retaining teenagers in high schools, states must
address a simultaneous need to attend to disconnected
youths in their communities—that is, young people without
connections to either school or work. What’s more, too
many of the region’s young adults enter community colleges
but do not complete the requirements of an associate’s
degree or a work-ready credential.
The South needs to realign its systems, both internally
and in connection with each other, to assure that its
citizens get the education from early childhood through
post-secondary required to prosper in both economic and
civic life. In the realms of education—schools, community
colleges, and universities—the South needs a driving
conversation around break-the-mold ideas.
Earning—As the South emerges from recession, it will
confront several uncomfortable facts: The traditional
Southern economy is not coming back; automobile
assembly plants and other factories will take the region
only so far in an era of globalized manufacturing; and the
region’s muscular metro areas feature significant wage and
wealth disparities.
Even as states and communities deal with the lingering
effects of recession, they can take steps to prepare a firmer
economic foundation for their people. Higher-wage work in
the future will require a postsecondary credential—which
Southerners can pursue in community colleges and fouryear universities. Many of the fastest-growing jobs require
some postsecondary education or credential—but not
necessarily a four-year degree. Southerners should prepare
to take advantage of new jobs in the green economy,
energy, and technology.
In addition to focusing on access to and completion
of postsecondary education, it is vital that states and
communities deal with the lingering effects of economic
dislocation by drawing down work supports, such as the
Earned Income Tax Credit, to bolster incomes in a period of
anemic wage growth.
Living—Once the South’s economy shifted into a higher
gear following World War II, and even appeared supercharged in the last decades of the 20th century, the South’s
civil landscape underwent a profound change. Jobs and the
people who took them clustered increasingly in sprawling
metropolitan areas that created a new dynamic in the region.
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
The forces of metropolitanization require policy making
and planning beyond the urban/rural/city/state boundaries
that now constrain our thinking. Metro areas will face
challenges in the near-term as the baby-boom generation
ages into retirement. Metro areas have become the
preferred destinations for whites, blacks, and Latinos in
the migration streams that have swelled the Southern
population and workforce.
Since Autry spoke those words, the South as well as the
nation have continued on a path to further fragmentation—
resulting from newer social-networking communication
technologies, from a media environment that fosters
ideological clashes, and from a polarized political system.
A democratic system, of course, is naturally competitive—
featuring competition of ideas as well as of personalities—
but the South is also a region in need of a renewed sense
of connection.
As the urban-rural gap widened over the last few decades,
the South took steps to bolster small cities and towns,
and the countryside, that formed so much of its heritage.
That work should continue. But if the South needs rural
strategies, it needs metro strategies, too. Metro areas
serve as the region’s strongest economic engines, where
Southerners will confront the full range of issues arising from
demographic diversity and development sprawl.
Leading—The governing, business, and civic leadership
of the South has been dominated by aging baby-boomers,
most of whom were shaped by the changes wrought by
the Civil Rights Movement and by the region’s rush for
economic modernization. In the near future, however, states
and communities will also depend on leadership from
people not born here and from younger generations, who
come with their own sets of experiences and styles.
Connecting—In that autumn afternoon speech in 1998,
George Autry called attention to the emergence of an
“insidious problem” rooted in an “increasingly fractured and
fragmented” social culture. Cultural enclaves, he said then,
“are our new communities … the old community has been
undermined by the automobile which carried us away, TV and
air-conditioning which drove us inside, the two-earner family
that wears us out, and now the computer that connects us to
the next century and isolates us from next door.”
Surely, the South needs to develop new leadership at all
levels—not just in high and official places, but in workplaces
and throughout communities. This is a moment when
Southern states should explore how leadership emerges
in the 21st century landscape of technology-infused
networking. It is imperative that the South identify, educate,
and sustain a new generation of political, professional, and
civic leaders—to these leaders will fall much of the task of
repairing the structural weaknesses that have made the
economic downturn so severe.
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
About MDC
MDC, founded in 1967, is a nonprofit organization based in Chapel Hill, N.C.
For more than four decades, MDC has focused on removing the barriers that
separate people from education, jobs and opportunity, working primarily in the
American South. Its work includes: publishing research; developing policies and
programs to strengthen the workforce and foster economic development; advising
foundations, community colleges and other institutions; and demonstrating and
incubating promising strategies to address opportunity and close gaps.
For this State of the South report, we are grateful for the financial support of the
GlaxoSmithKline Foundation, the Park Foundation, the Ford Foundation, and the
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
For more information, visit www.mdcinc.org.
The MDC State of the South 2010 team
David Dodson, President
Ferrel Guillory, Senior Fellow
Richard Hart, Communications Director
Lauren Koehler, Program Associate
Joan Lipsitz, Senior Fellow
Noah Raper, Program Associate
Alyson Zandt, Autry Fellow
The MDC Board of Directors
Mark V. Bensen, Raleigh, North Carolina, Executive Vice President, MDC
Janet H. Brown, Washington, D.C
Anita Brown-Graham, Durham, North Carolina
John F. Burness, Durham, North Carolina
J. Haywood Davis, New York, New York
David L. Dodson, Durham, North Carolina, President, MDC
Barbara Goodmon, Raleigh, North Carolina
The Honorable Otis Johnson, Savannah, Georgia
Ambassador James A. Joseph, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Don Munro, Hot Springs, Arkansas
Minor M. Shaw, Greenville, South Carolina
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
Sources and Resources
THE ECONOMIST
“The End of the Blues,” a special report on the American South, March 3, 2007
“Lone Star Rising,” a special report on Texas, July 11, 2009
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
MetroMonitor, Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America’s 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas, 2009
“A Rollercoaster Decade for Migration,” William H. Frey, December 29, 2009
“The Great American Migration Slowdown: Regional and Metropolitan Dimensions, William H. Frey, December 9, 2009
“The Great Recession: What Comes Next for Our Metropolitan Nation,” Bruce Katz, October 26, 2009
“The Effects of the Recession on Child Poverty,” Julia B. Isaacs, December 2009
“The Suburbanization of Poverty: Trends in Metropolitan America, 2000 to 2008,” Elizabeth Kneebone and Emily Garr,
January 2010
DAILYYONDER.COM
“Alabama is Bleeding Rural Jobs,” Bill Bishop and Roberto Gallardo, December 14, 2009
“Poor Rural Children: The Forgotten Fifth,” July 22, 2009
NEWGEOGRAPHY.COM
“The Decade of the South: The New State Population Estimates.” Wendell Cox, December 26, 2009
“Numbers Don’t Support Migration Exodus to ‘Cool Cities,’” Joel Kotkin, November 3, 2009
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ATLANTA
“The Southeast in 2010: Region Hopes for a Turnaround,” EconSouth, Fourth Quarter, 2009
THE NEW YORK TIMES
“How Some Places Fare Better in Hard Times,” Edward L. Glaeser, March 24, 2009
“Food Stamp Use Soars, and Stigma Fades,” Jason DeParle and Robert Gebeloff, November 29, 2009
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE
2008 Turnout Report: African-Americans, Anger, Fear and Youth Propel Turnout to Highest Level Since 1960,” Curtis Gans,
December 17, 2008
CENTER ON BUDGET AND POLICY PRIORITIES
“Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends,” Jared Bernstein, Elizabeth McNichol, and Andrew Nicholas,
April 2008
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The State of the South | 2010
Chapter 1: Beyond the ‘Gilded Age’
THE ATLANTIC
“How America Can Rise Again,” James Fallows, January/February, 2010
“How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America,” Don Peck, March 2010
AMERICA MAGAZINE
“A New Vision: What Catholic Social Teaching Offers a Nation of Consumers,” Charles K. Wilber, June 22-29, 2009
“Auditing Self-Interest: How the Great Recession Provoked An Economic Examination of Conscience,” Maurice E. Stucke,
Dec. 14, 2009
JUST SOUTH QUARTERLY
“Poverty and the Gulf South States,” Rev. Fred Kammer, Jesuit Social Research Institute, Winter 2009
REALTY TRAC
http://www.realtytrac.com/pub/landing/optimized_c.asp?a=b&accnt=219329
GOVERNMENT DATA SOURCES
Regional Economic Information System (REIS) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis: http://www.bea.gov/
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2000, 2006, 2008: http://www.census.gov/acs
U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/
Current Population Survey, U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/cps/
National Association of State Budget Officers: http://www.nasbo.org/
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service: http://ers.usda.gov/StateFacts/
Copyright © 2010 MDC Inc.
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