US Economic Briefing:
High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
June 13, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683
[email protected]
Debbie Johnson
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333
[email protected]
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
Key Global Indicators
Global Boom Bust Barometer
US Leading Indicators
ECRI
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
US Unemployment Claims
US Petroleum Usage
US Electricity Output
US Railcar Loadings
US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits
US Business Credit
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
US Commercial Paper
US Liquid Assets
US Profits Cycle
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
Gasoline Prices & Rig Count
June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
1
2
3
4
5
6-7
8
9-10
11-14
15
16
17
18
19-20
21-23
24
25
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Key Global Indicators
Figure 1.
650
180
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
170
600
160
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*
(1967=100)
550
150
140
500
6/13
Volume of World Exports
(2005=100, sa)
130
Mar
450
120
110
400
100
90
350
80
300
70
60
250
50
yardeni.com
200
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
40
20
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
Figure 2.
650
21
INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS
600
19
CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*
(1967=100)
550
500
17
6/13
Feb
Value of World Exports (IMF)
(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
15
450
13
400
11
350
9
300
7
250
5
200
yardeni.com
95
96
97
3
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.
Page 1 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Global Boom Bust Barometer
Figure 3.
140
140
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER*
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
6/13
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
yardeni.com
2006
30
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4.
160
160
COMMODITY PRICES
140
140
120
120
6/13
100
100
80
80
CRB Raw Industrials
Spot Price Index*
60
6/12
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**
(dollars per barrel)
40
20
60
40
yardeni.com
2005
2006
20
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
** Nearby futures price.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
Page 2 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Leading Indicators
Figure 5.
150
150
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
6/2
130
130
Apr
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(1992=100, 4-wa)
110
110
90
90
Conference Board LEI
(2010=100)
70
70
50
50
30
yardeni.com
73
75
77
30
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Figure 6.
150
150
LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
6/2
140
140
130
130
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(1992=100, 4-wa)
120
120
Apr
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
Conference Board CEI
(2004=100)
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
yardeni.com
73
75
77
40
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Page 3 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
ECRI
Figure 7.
-200
0
155
ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD
(basis points, inverted scale)
150
200
6/13
400
145
140
600
135
800
1000
130
1200
125
1400
120
High-Yield
Corporate Spread*
1600
1800
ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(1992=100)
2000
2200
115
110
yardeni.com
105
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
* High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Figure 8.
150
2600
S&P 500 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
6/13
2400
145
2200
140
2000
135
1800
130
1600
125
1400
1200
120
S&P 500 Index
1000
115
110
105
800
ECRI Weekly
Leading Index
(1992=100)
600
yardeni.com
2000
2001
400
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).
Page 4 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
Figure 9.
120
100
120
CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
(percent)
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
6/13
-60
-60
-80
-80
Based on US Dollar (-45.1)
-100
-100
-120
-120
-140
-140
yardeni.com
-160
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-160
2018
Source: Citigroup.
Figure 10.
100
100
CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX
(percent)
50
50
0
0
6/13
-50
-50
Based on G10 Currencies (-4)
-100
-150
-100
yardeni.com
2006
2007
-150
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Citigroup.
Page 5 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Unemployment Claims
Figure 11.
800
800
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(thousands, sa)
750
750
700
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
6/3
200
150
200
yardeni.com
73
75
77
150
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: US Department of Labor.
Figure 12.
800
800
INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(thousands, sa, four-week moving average)
750
750
700
700
650
650
600
600
550
550
500
500
450
450
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
6/3
200
150
200
yardeni.com
73
75
77
150
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: US Department of Labor.
Page 6 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Unemployment Claims
Figure 13.
11
11
CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(millions, sa)
10
10
9
9
8
8
Continuing
7
7
Continuing +
Extended*
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
1
2
5/20
yardeni.com
73
75
77
1
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
* Extended claims are nsa.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 14.
17
17
CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
(millions, sa, four-week moving average)
16
15
14
16
15
Number of
Unemployed
13
14
Continuing
13
Continuing +
Extended*
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
May
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
5/20
2
2
1
0
1
yardeni.com
73
75
77
0
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
15
17
19
21
* Extended claims are nsa.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 7 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Petroleum Usage
Figure 15.
22
22
US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED
(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)
21
21
Total* (20.0)
6/2
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
16
yardeni.com
91
92
93
16
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.
Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.
Figure 16.
3.4
10.0
US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
3.2
Mar
9.5
6/2
3.0
9.0
2.8
8.5
2.6
Gasoline Usage
(million barrels per day, 52-wa)
2.4
Vehicle Miles Traveled
(trillion miles, 12-month sum)
8.0
7.5
2.2
yardeni.com
2.0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
7.0
20
Source: US Department of Energy.
Page 8 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Electricity Output
Figure 17.
80000
78000
80000
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT*
(GW hours, 52-week moving average)
78000
6/3
76000
74000
74000
72000
72000
yardeni.com
76000
70000
68000
70000
68000
66000
66000
64000
64000
62000
62000
60000
60000
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.
Source: Edison Electric Institute.
Figure 18.
8
8
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP
(yearly percent change)
6
6
4
4
Q1
6/3
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Electric Utility Output
(52-week moving average)
-4
-6
-4
Real GDP
yardeni.com
95
96
97
-6
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.
Source: Edison Electric Institute.
Page 9 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Electricity Output
Figure 19.
80000
78000
115
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION
(52-week moving average)
110
6/3
76000
105
74000
100
72000
95
70000
90
68000
85
Electricity Output
(GW hours)
66000
80
Total Manufacturing Production
64000
75
62000
70
yardeni.com
60000
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
65
20
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.
Source: Edison Electric Institute.
Figure 20.
80000
78000
17500
US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP
(52-week moving average)
6/3
16500
76000
15500
74000
14500
72000
70000
13500
68000
66000
Electricity Output
(GW hours)
12500
Real GDP
(billion dollars, saar)
11500
64000
10500
62000
yardeni.com
60000
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
9500
20
* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.
Source: Edison Electric Institute.
Page 10 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Railcar Loadings
Figure 21.
600
600
RAILCAR LOADINGS*
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Total
550
550
6/3
500
500
450
450
400
yardeni.com
2000
2001
400
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Carloads plus intermodal.
Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 22.
400
400
RAILCAR LOADINGS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Carloads
350
350
300
300
6/3
250
250
200
150
200
Intermodal
yardeni.com
2000
2001
150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Atlantic Systems.
Page 11 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Railcar Loadings
Figure 23.
30
30
RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES
25
25
20
20
6/3
15
15
Motor Vehicles
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa)
Sales
(million units, saar)
10
10
yardeni.com
5
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
5
19
Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics.
Figure 24.
7
2600
RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS
2300
6
2000
1700
5
1400
4
1100
Lumber & Wood Products
Loadings
(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)
6/3
800
3
Housing Starts
(thousand units, saar)
2
500
yardeni.com
90
91
92
200
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Page 12 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Railcar Loadings
Figure 25.
160
12
RAILCAR LOADINGS
150
(thousand units, 26-wa)
140
Coal
11
10
Nonmetallic Minerals
130
9
120
8
110
7
100
6
90
6/3
80
5
6/3
4
70
60
3
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
48
12
46
44
42
11
Chemicals & Petroleum
Products
Pulp & Paper
Products
10
6/3
40
9
38
8
36
7
34
6
32
6/3
30
5
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
18
11
Waste & Scrap
Materials
16
10
Metals & Products
14
9
12
10
8
6/3
6/3
8
7
6
yardeni.com
4
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
6
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
Page 13 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Railcar Loadings
Figure 26.
250
145
ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS
6/3
140
Apr
135
230
Railcar Loadings:
Intermodal Containers
(thousand units, 26-wa) (237.9)
210
130
125
190
120
170
115
110
150
105
ATA Truck Tonnage Index
(2000=100, sa) (135.3)
130
100
yardeni.com
110
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
95
2019
Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.
Figure 27.
90
90
RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS
(thousand units, 26-wa)
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
6/3
yardeni.com
92
93
94
20
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.
Page 14 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits
Figure 28.
2800
2700
2800
FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL
May
(billion dollars)
2700
2600
2600
2500
2500
2400
2400
6/12
2300
2300
2200
2200
2100
2100
2000
2000
1900
1900
1800
1800
1700
1700
Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes
(260-day sum)
Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus
Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts*
(12-month sum)
1600
1500
1400
1300
yardeni.com
2004
2005
1600
1500
1400
1300
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
* Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement.
Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics.
Figure 29.
450
450
FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES
(billion dollars)
400
400
350
350
6/12
May
300
300
250
250
Deposits
(260-day sum)
200
200
Receipts
(12-month sum)
150
100
150
yardeni.com
2004
2005
100
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics.
Page 15 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Business Credit
Figure 30.
2600
2400
2600
SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES
(billion dollars)
2200
C&I Loans Plus
Nonfinancial
Commercial Paper
(nsa)
2000
Manufacturing & Trade
Inventories
(sa)
1800
1600
5/31
2400
2200
2000
Apr
1800
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
800
800
600
600
yardeni.com
400
400
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 31.
2375
2175
2375
COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS
(billion dollars, nsa)
5/31
2175
1975
1975
1775
1775
1575
1575
1375
1375
1175
1175
975
975
775
775
575
420
575
420
380
340
NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER
380
(billion dollars, nsa)
300
340
6/7
300
260
260
220
220
180
180
140
140
100
60
100
yardeni.com
60
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 16 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
MBA Mortgage Applications Survey
Figure 32.
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
8
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES
7
6
Apr
6/2
5
Mortgage Applications:
New Purchase Index
(4-week average, sa)
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
4
New Plus Existing
Single-Family Home Sales
(million units, saar)
yardeni.com
3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.
Figure 33.
12000
12000
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX
(4-week average, sa)
10000
8000
8000
6000
yardeni.com
10000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000
6/2
0
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.
Page 17 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Commercial Paper
Figure 34.
2400
700
COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING
(billion dollars, sa)
2200
600
Domestic Financial
2000
Total
Foreign Financial
500
Foreign Bank (nsa)
1800
400
1600
300
1400
6/7
200
1200
1000
100
6/7
800
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1250
350
1150
325
Asset Backed
1050
300
Total Financial
6/7
950
275
Nonfinancial
850
250
750
225
650
200
550
175
450
6/7
150
350
250
125
6/7
100
yardeni.com
150
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
75
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 18 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Liquid Assets
Figure 35.
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
LIQUID ASSETS*
5/29
(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
yardeni.com
2.5
2.5
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &
institutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 36.
150
150
LIQUID ASSETS*
140
140
130
130
120
120
As a percent of
110
110
Wilshire 5000 (46.6)
100
100
S&P 500 Market Cap (56.7)
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
5/31
50
6/2
40
50
40
30
20
60
30
yardeni.com
20
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &
institutions.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal.
Page 19 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Liquid Assets
Figure 37.
9300
8900
8500
8100
7700
7300
6900
6500
6100
5700
5300
4900
4500
4100
3700
3300
2900
2500
2100
1700
1300
900
500
100
INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS
5/29
(billion dollars, sa)
Savings Deposits (including
Money Market Deposit Accounts)*
Total Small Time
Deposits**
5/29
yardeni.com
9300
8900
8500
8100
7700
7300
6900
6500
6100
5700
5300
4900
4500
4100
3700
3300
2900
2500
2100
1700
1300
900
500
100
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Included in M2.
** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 38.
2.8
2.6
2.8
MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS
(trillion dollars, sa)
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
Held By:
2.0
2.0
Retail*
1.8
Institutions**
1.8
5/29
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
5/29
.6
.4
.6
yardeni.com
.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
* Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.
** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2.
Source: Federal Reserve Board.
Page 20 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Profits Cycle
Figure 39.
130
150
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
6/1
120
Forward Earnings*
130
Apr
US Coincident
Economic Indicators
(2004=100)
110
110
100
90
90
70
80
50
70
30
60
50
yardeni.com
10
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
Figure 40.
12
60
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(yearly percent change)
8
40
4
20
6/1
0
0
-4
Forward Earnings*
-20
-8
US Coincident Economic Indicators
-40
-12
yardeni.com
-60
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
Page 21 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Profits Cycle
Figure 41.
7.0
150
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS
6/1
6.5
130
Forward Earnings*
(weekly)
6.0
Total New Factory Orders
(trillion dollars, saar)
5.5
110
Apr
5.0
90
4.5
70
4.0
50
3.5
3.0
yardeni.com
95
96
97
30
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Figure 42.
45
40
25
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS
(yearly percent change)
20
35
30
15
25
10
20
Apr
5
15
6/1
10
0
5
-5
0
-10
-5
-10
-15
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
-15
-20
-20
New Factory Orders
(3-ma)
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-40
yardeni.com
95
96
97
-35
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average
of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Page 22 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
US Profits Cycle
Figure 43.
20
50
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(yearly percent change)
40
15
30
10
20
5
6/1
Apr
0
10
0
-10
-5
-10
Forward Earnings*
-20
US Industrial Production
-30
-15
-40
yardeni.com
-20
-50
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 44.
40
10
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS
(yearly percent change)
20
5
6/1
0
-20
0
-5
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
Aggregate Hours
yardeni.com
-40
-10
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 23 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
Figure 45.
70
220
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
6/3
210
200
Boom-Bust Barometer*
190
60
180
Consumer Comfort Index
170
160
150
6/3
50
140
130
120
40
110
100
90
80
30
70
60
50
20
yardeni.com
2000
2001
40
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
Figure 46.
200
2600
S&P 500 INDEX & YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX
6/13
S&P 500 Index
180
2400
6/3
2200
YRI Weekly Leading Index*
2000
160
1800
140
1600
1400
120
1200
1000
100
800
yardeni.com
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
600
2018
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials
spot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.
Page 24 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Gasoline Prices & Rig Count
Figure 47.
4.2
4.0
4.2
GASOLINE PRICES
4.0
(dollars per gallon)
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6
5/31
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
National Average
Pump Price (weekly)
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.4
1.6
6/13
Futures Price (daily)*
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.6
.8
yardeni.com
2006
.6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
* Nearby contract.
Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics.
Figure 48.
2400
2200
2400
ACTIVE US RIG COUNT
(units)
2200
US Rig Count
2000
2000
Total US (927)
Oil (741)
Gas (185)
1800
1800
1600
1600
1400
1400
1200
1200
1000
1000
6/9
800
800
600
600
400
400
200
200
yardeni.com
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0
20
Source: Baker Hughes Inc.
Page 25 / June 13, 2017 / High Frequency Indicators
Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2017. All rights reserved. The information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not
necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or
warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or
correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other
information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on
http://blog.yardeni.com
www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com,
and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued
without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs
of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell
any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide
to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but
should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.
Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as
recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures
contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.
product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and
constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com,
http://blog.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com,
and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,
broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise
disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of
Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni
Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary
and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni
Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,
including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or
to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,
now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further
notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil
remedies for the violation of its rights.
The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.
Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted
by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on
request.
[email protected]