Progress in Physical Geography 28,3 (2004) pp. 340 – 365 Quantifying soil erosion by water in the UK: a review of monitoring and modelling approaches Richard Brazier Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Winter Street, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK Abstract: The role of erosion by water in the UK is considered. A summary of available data describing water erosion is presented providing insights into rates of erosion from the hillslope scale to the large catchment scale. Evidence suggests that soil erosion rates in excess of acceptable thresholds occur on a wide range of soils and under a wide range of land uses throughout the country. Given the recent shift towards erosion modelling and away from erosion monitoring, discussion of the quality of existing available observed data in the context of model evaluation is made. Much quality data exist in the UK to describe erosion by water, but it is argued here that few datasets provide the necessary detail with which to evaluate model performance accurately, especially when the description of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss is a goal. Furthermore, the paradox between data collection (to improve models) and erosion modelling (to replace data collection) is highlighted as an issue that must be addressed within the discipline if full use of datasets and improvement of models is to be made. Key words: modelling, monitoring, soil erosion, UK, water erosion. I Introduction Soil erosion by water in the UK, at least in a qualitative sense has been observed and documented since the eighteenth century (White, 1788; Defoe cited by Hoskins, 1970). Furthermore, the role of agriculture in promoting this natural phenomenon has also been recognized for well in excess of 100 years (Fisher, 1868). Despite such lines of evidence, the treatment of soil erosion as a serious issue with potentially significant Tel: þ44 (0)114 222 7946; fax: þ 44 (0)114 279 7912; e-mail: [email protected] C Arnold 2004 W 10.1191/0309133304pp415ra Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 341 environmental and economic impacts did not occur until Evans (1971) underlined the growing need for soil conservation in the UK. Subsequently, as the study of soil erosion has evolved into a more quantitative discipline, numerous techniques have been employed to monitor soil erosion rates at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In part, this paper seeks to synthesize the results of these monitoring experiments, and other complementary datasets, for two reasons. First, to provide a comprehensive review of the extent and magnitude of soil erosion in the UK and secondly, to allow an insight into the quality of these data for the evaluation of predictive models that are now commonly used in this field. The rationale behind this latter approach stems from the succession of monitoring experiments by a whole suite of modelling tools and, as a consequence of this, the reliance upon model predictions over field data collection. In order to distinguish which erosion datasets are best suited to evaluate erosion predictions some distinction must be made between the different underlying aims of soil erosion models. Whilst much work throughout the 1980s and 1990s focused on the construction of models which could (potentially) simulate fine-scale physical processes (for examples see Nearing et al., 1989; Morgan et al., 1994). More recent work (Nearing, 2003) has suggested that, at least for soil conservation purposes, the goal of process-based models to accurately ‘understand’ and represent this understanding in the form of model predictions, is over-complex; a more realistic goal being to simply predict the direction of change of erosion, under a different land use or climate scenario, for example. Viewed in this light, it may seem less important to continue data collection for the evaluation of such models. Here I argue that is certainly not the case, as it is recognized by Kirkby et al. (1993) that models will never be more than analogies of the real world and consequently it is crucial to model development (whatever the goals of the modeller are) that continual reference is made back to the quality, observed data that these models attempt to predict. Furthermore, Kirkby (1987) states that ‘untestable models are as unacceptable as unstructured data collection’ implying that, as modelling has for the most part replaced data collection, a certain paradox is evident. Can improvements in the predictive capabilities of erosion models be made without the continuing collection of quality field data to match model predictions? Given that data collection is currently the exception rather than the rule in the UK, this paper seeks to identify which existing data can be used and which further data should be collected to complement the development of models and to aid the necessary validation efforts which must be rigorously pursued to improve the predictive capability of soil erosion models (Brazier et al., 2000). The range of soil erosion monitoring experiments and related data collection in the UK is now discussed with particular reference to water erosion. This paper aims to highlight the limitations of comparing data collected at different scales and outlines the advantages of each approach in terms of aiding model development. The wider picture of soil erosion in the UK is summarized and the need for further observed data for model evaluation purposes, collected within an integrated monitoring and modelling framework is then argued. II Monitoring soil erosion by water Observed data in this article are presented as a synthesis of representative data from numerous sources in the UK. In order to draw comparisons between disparate Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 342 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches datasets an average bulk density of 1.4 g cm23 is assumed for all soils previously surveyed in volumetric units (Brazier, 2000) and units of t ha 21 yr21 are employed throughout. 1 Plot studies Use of plots to monitor erosion allows precise control of management conditions and accurate measurement of both runoff and soil loss fluxes from the hillslope. Replicates can be used to provide average results, thus decreasing any bias introduced during extreme events or resulting from extreme conditions at each plot, but they are also useful to examine variation within supposedly identical sites (see Fullen and Reed, 1986; Catt et al., 1994; Nearing, 1998; Nearing et al., 1999). The impact of different management scenarios can be studied and combined with meteorological data, detailed response of the hillslope to individual storms and seasonal changes can be monitored. Certain drawbacks exist with the use of plot data, largely when inferences are made about the wider landscape. Plots are often sited where erosion is a priori known to occur; the Woburn erosion plots, for example, were established on the basis of historical knowledge and observations by Catt (1992). It is therefore fair to assume that plot-based erosion rates will represent the immediate locality, but may well overestimate rates in the surrounding landscape (Evans, 1995). It must be noted that output from plot studies will only reflect an aggregate output across the whole plot and cannot provide details of redeposition or redistribution within the plot (Walling and Quine, 1990). This limitation is further discussed by Rejman and Usowicz (2002) and Wainwright et al. (2001, 2003), the latter arguing that, as erosion does not occur in a uniform fashion across the whole plot, it is misleading to consider soil loss in terms of mass per unit area, the conclusion being that the consideration of sediment flux as a function of travel distance (or length of plot) is a more informative way of presenting results. The physical constraints of plot boundaries are also a potential problem. Most plot sites fail to recreate the conditions found within the field, as boundaries eliminate any convergence or divergence of flow paths in and out of the plot and interrupt the movement of sediment by splash along the plot margins (Wainwright et al., 2000). Plots used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for calibration of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) models, for example, measure only 22.13 m in length and 1.83 m in width – being equivalent to 1/100th acre (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). The precise influence of slope length upon soil erosion is, however, undecided (Speirs and Frost 1987; Evans, 1990a), though the use of bounded plots will clearly have some effect upon runoff generation and consequent soil erosion, as is summarized by Wainwright et al. (2000). Examination of plot data is nonetheless informative if considered within the context of these limitations. Plots established on the loamy sands of the Bridgnorth series, in Shropshire (Fullen, 1992) show average soil erosion rates of 11.3 t ha21yr21 and maximum erosion rates of 34.2 t ha21 yr21 over a seven year period (see Table 1). These data were obtained from bare soils but also, because of the aforementioned issues, should probably be viewed as describing worst-case erosion scenarios. Consequently, these data Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 Hilton experimental site, Shropshire, bare plots Hilton experimental site, Shropshire, grassland plots Woburn experimental farm, Bedfordshire Houndean Farm, Lewes, Sussex Shropshire Fullen (1992) Quinton (personal communication, 2002) Robinson and Boardman (1988) Reed (1983, 1986) Study site Loamy sands: Bridgnorth 1986– 91 1964– 86 1985– 86 Sandy loam: Cottenham Silty loam: Andover Sands Loamy sands: Bridgnorth 1985– 91 1990– 95 Soil type and series Study period 16 7 11 14 Min 30 7 25 30 Max Slope gradient (%) Observed soil erosion rates from plot experiments in the UK Author Table 1 n/a 180 36 10 Plot length (m) 16 15.03 2.0 0.008 11.3 Average soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) . 40 45.34 2.93 n/a 34.2 Maximium soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) R. Brazier Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 343 344 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches indicate the potential soil loss from sites of loamy sand soil type and are thus useful in their own right. At certain times of year, notably in the autumn, such soils found under winter wheats are bare (Arden-Clarke and Evans, 1990) and are at high risk from water erosion (Boardman and Robinson, 1985). In contrast, the corresponding grassland plots produce consistently low runoff and insignificant soil erosion, highlighting the importance of a year-round cover of vegetation and illustrating the high variability of soil erosion rates within soils with the same basic erodibility characteristics. Plot data from the Woburn experimental farm, Bedfordshire, are perhaps more representative of the surrounding locality in as far as the plots were managed on a rotation of potatoes, winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, winter wheat, winter barley, as is common for that part of Bedfordshire (Catt et al., 1994). Eight plots split into pairs of replicates, each pair employing different combinations of management techniques (cultivation downslope or across slope and residue removal or residue retention), yield average soil erosion rates of 2.0 t ha21 yr21 over a period of five years (J.N. Quinton, personnal communication, 2002). Annual treatment of plots, in this case identical to the management practices of the surrounding locality, adds some credence to the extrapolation of these results to the wider landscape. As a good sample of crops and management techniques are included in the study period, such results are thought to be genuinely representative of soil erosion rates at the plot scale for this part of the UK. Further plot-based soil erosion rates are available from Houndean Farm, near Lewes in the South Downs (Robinson and Boardman, 1988). A set of seven plots was monitored for the year 1985 – 86 on the silty loams of the Andover series. Each of the plots represented different cropping and management techniques, so results varied considerably from 0.014 t ha21 yr21 to 45.346 t ha21 yr21, based on an assessment of rill erosion volume, with a mean of 15.03 t ha21 yr21. It is suggested that such studies are allowed to run for a number of years before any longer term or wider assumptions are drawn from the results, though again, it is informative to see the range of soil erosion rates from plot studies, underlining the complex nature of the hillslope system and the potential for serious erosion to occur on such soils. Clearly, there are many factors causing variability at the plot scale and a completely inappropriate dataset to describe these factors for all soils in the UK (in comparison to the USDA USLE database, for instance). Therefore, though it is recognized that the variability between plots (and soils) may be well described in a relative sense with such experiments, this limitation must be borne in mind if extrapolation of plot results is made to the wider landscape. 2 Overflight with field survey data In 1982 The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) commissioned the then Agricultural Development and Advisory Service (ADAS) in collaboration with the Soil Survey of England and Wales (SSEW) to begin an extensive survey of water erosion in lowland England and Wales. Seventeen locations were chosen, largely on the basis of previously observed erosion in the localities (Evans, 1988, 1993). The areas ranged in size from 31 km2 -to 105 km2, covering a variety of different soil series, management practices and topography throughout England and Wales. Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 345 Survey methods involved aerial photography of each transect (weather conditions permitting) on an annual basis, followed by field validation of areas that appeared to have eroded, or contained erosional/depositional features too small to identify from the overflight data (Evans, 1988). Adopting this method, it was intended that field observations could capture the features that the 1:10 000 scale photographs missed whilst also ensuring that not every field had to be visited, which was deemed to be too time-consuming. Some criticism can be made of these data as overall they are biased, being observations from sites that are known to erode. Also, the rill-survey technique does not take into account the contribution of sediment from the interrill areas from processes such as rain splash and sheet wash, which generally result in surface lowering. However, it is argued that rilling and ephemeral gullying of arable land are the dominant processes and that other processes may only lead to the removal of less than 0.7 t ha21 yr21 (Evans and Cook, 1986). General results from the overflight data are summarized in Table 2. Maximum erosion rates are included as they show more clearly the relative differences between areas throughout England and Wales than the median values. Evans (1993) also points out that these rates reflect the ‘full erosive potential’ of the soil, providing an upper limit to the range of observed values across England and Wales. Notably, for example, sites with low median rates can still produce high maximum rates; Staffordshire being the best example where fields down to row crops such as sugar beet and potatoes yield very high localized erosion rates in excess of 100 t ha21 yr21. Erosion rates averaged over the whole field can therefore be low, often less than 1.4 t ha21 yr21, a threshold recognized as being acceptable by authors such Table 2 Observed soil erosion rates from overflight and field survey in the UK 1982 – 86 Study site Soil type Average soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) Maximium soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) Cambridgeshire/Bedfordshire Cumbria Devon Dorset Gwent Hampshire Herefordshire Isle of Wight Kent Norfolk East Norfolk West Nottinghamshire Shropshire Somerset Staffordshire Sussex East Sussex West Clays and medium loams Medium and light loams with sands Medium loams clays and medium silts Mostly clays, medium loams Medium loams, medium silts, clays Loams and medium silts Medium silts Light loams and sands Medium silts and clays Light loams and sands Light loams and sands Sands and light loams Sands and light loams, medium loams Medium silts and loams Sands and light loams Silts and medium loams Silts and medium silts 0.36 0.22 2.07 1.29 1.08 0.97 0.99 2.05 4.51 1.48 0.36 1.11 1.28 4.89 1.38 0.48 0.45 3.30 5.07 8.32 31.08 21.87 29.71 13.22 28.63 17.86 9.45 11.96 66.15 49.34 55.64 108.28 9.41 10.01 Source: after Evans (1988, 1993); Skinner and Chambers, (1996). Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 346 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches as Evans (1981) and (Morgan, 1980), but these figures can hide the potential rates from contributing areas within the fields, specifically from the steeper hillslopes. Significantly, all locations surveyed show maximum rates in excess of this ‘acceptable’ level of erosion and, with the exception of Devon and Cumbria, numerous fields within each locality were observed to erode on multiple occasions. Further work by Evans (1990b) suggests a relationship between erosion rates and soil texture, sandy and light textured soils in general being more susceptible to structural breakdown and subsequent erosion than heavier, clay rich soils. The sites in Sussex, Cambridgeshire/Bedfordshire and Hampshire all exemplify this suggestion with median erosion rates less than 1 t ha21 yr21. Furthermore, this hypothesis is supported by conclusions drawn by Speirs and Frost (1985), Colborne and Staines (1985) and Boardman (1990b) who also observe greater erosion in silty soils when compared with those with high clay contents (see discussion below). Data from Somerset, Kent and the Isle of Wight also support this relationship, with high average soil erosion rates and, in addition, amongst the highest maximum rates. However, despite this trend and the diverse range of conditions that exist between sites, the general conclusion that can be drawn is that erosion can occur to significant levels throughout the SSEW/MAFF sites, pointing to the fact that soil erosion by water is a relatively widespread phenomenon throughout the UK. 3 137 Cs survey data Whilst plot and field survey data provide an insight into soil erosion over the period of monitoring, the analysis of 137Cs data (Quine and Walling, 1991; Walling and Quine, 1990, 1991) establishes a rate of soil loss for a longer time period, which also represents erosion rate as a sum of all erosive processes (Walling and Quine, 1990) including those that are not measured by the other techniques reviewed here. A brief description of the methodology involved is warranted, prior to examination of estimated soil erosion rates. Global stratospheric distribution of 137Cs as a result of nuclear weapons testing occurred between the 1950s and 1970s, leading to deposition by rainfall and washout. The pattern of 137Cs in the UK therefore reflects that of rainfall, with wetter areas typically exhibiting higher total loading. At the field and small catchment scale, the distribution of 137Cs is relatively homogeneous as it has a strong affinity with clays in the soil, this results in the redistribution of soil corresponding well to the redistribution of 137Cs. Depth profiles and total loading within the soil of 137Cs from cultivated sites can therefore be compared with a local reference profile, typically from undisturbed pasture, to distinguish between sites of erosion or deposition. Using this method, Walling and Quine (1990, 1991) established erosion rates for a number of field-sized areas throughout the UK. In many cases, these sites tie in with the previous monitoring schemes of Fullen (1992), Boardman (1990a), Boardman and Favis-Mortlock (1993) and Evans (1993), allowing comparisons to be drawn between measurements taken by the different techniques. Table 3. summarizes the range of 137 Cs results. Dalicott Farm in Shropshire, for instance, shows average soil erosion rates of 6.5 t ha21 yr21 on the loamy sands of the Bridgnorth series (Walling and Quine, 1991); the same soil series under plots (Fullen, 1992) erodes at an average annual rate of 11.3 t ha21 yr21. Perhaps this is due to plots recording the erosion Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier Table 3 137 347 Cs survey soil erosion rates (t ha21 yr21) Site 137 137 Yendacott, Devon Wootton, Herefordshire Keysoe Park, Bedfordshire Higher, Dorset Fishpool, Gwent West Street, Kent Manor House, Norfolk Hole Farm, Norfolk Rufford, Nottinghamshire Dalicott, Shropshire Mountfield, Somerset Lewes, Sussex 1.9 2.8 0.6 3.1 1.9 4.3 2.4 3.0 10.5 6.5 2.2 1.4 5.3 6.4 2.2 5.2 5.1 7.7 6.3 6.3 12.2 10.2 4.6 4.3 Cs Net erosion Cs Gross erosion Source: after Quine and Walling (1991). rather than both the erosion and the deposition, which are quantified by the 137Cs technique, resulting in the ‘net’ soil loss of 6.5 t ha21 yr21, or the different timescale involved, with its consequent averaging of different climate and land use conditions. The higher erosion rates from the Fullen (1992) data may also be due to the use of exposed, bare ground all year round for the plots, compared with the 137Cs observations which are . 30 year average data from cultivated land. Comparisons can also be drawn with the Evans (1993) data for soils of the Bridgnorth series. The five years of the overflight survey (1982– 86) show lower erosion rates than those predicted by Walling and Quine (1991) with an average of 1.28 t ha21 yr21. However, as discussed above, Evan’s survey technique only measures soil loss in rills and ephemeral gullies, not that which is due to rainsplash or sheetwash, which may account for some of the disparity between the datasets (Evans and Cook, 1986). Finally, comparisons can also be drawn with the work of Reed (1983) (see Table 4) who observed soil erosion in Shropshire from over 1000 sites between 1965 and 1983. Though much of this work was subjective, with little in the way of quantitative measurements, rates of soil erosion are estimated to be in excess of 40 t ha21 yr21 in parts of eastern Shropshire, providing an example of potential erosion rates given steepest slopes and, in this case, high levels of man-induced compaction. In general, the results of the 137Cs surveys diverge from those presented by other authors. Results from the ten (Walling and Quine, 1990) survey sites that tie in with the Evans (1993) overflight survey data are presented in Figure 1. It is apparent from the comparison of the results that the two measurement techniques rarely provide compatible assessments of erosion rates. Since this is arguably the case for all different methods of quantifying erosion, great care must be taken in drawing conclusions as to which results are ‘correct’. Here, it is argued that attention must be given to the nature of the observed data when considering rates of soil loss at a specific site or on a specific soil series. Owing to the temporal and spatial scales involved and the wholly different nature of the techniques employed it is hardly surprising that varying assessments of extent of erosion or magnitude are presented. Therefore, each set of observed data must be treated with reference to its limitations, especially when these data are considered for model validation as is demonstrated by Quine (1999). Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 Kenton, Devon Ashcombe, Devon Starcross, Devon Penallt, Gwent Bicton, Devon Morfe Valley, Salop Bollitree, Herefordshire Llanishen, Gwent Ridgmont, Bedfordshire Mileoak, W. Sussex Houndean, E. Sussex Dalicott, Salop 1990– 94 0.03– 0.05 0.03– 0.07 Clay Clay 0.02 0.2225 6.3 0.085 0.185 , 0.01 0.105 0.1175 no erosion 0.02 0.155 0.135 no erosion 0.6– 2.1 Chalky Loamy sand/sandy loam – Newport/ Wick Loamy sand/sandy loam – Frilford Silty clay loam – Andover Silty clay loam – Andover Loamy sand/sandy loam – Newport/ Wick Loamy sand/sandy loam – Cuckney Sandy loam – Earniston/Hodnet Sandy loam/sandy silty loam – Eardiston Sandy silty loam – Milford Loamy sand/sandy loam – Bridgnorth Clay loam – Crediton Loamy sand/sandy loam – Bridgnorth Loamy sand/sandy loam – Bridgnorth 1.0– 4.5 0.06– 2.4 0.00– 0.001 0.6– 2.9 2.1 Average soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) Sand Sandy loam – Cottenham series Sandy loam – Cottenham series Yeovil and Pennard sands 1982– 83 1973– 79 Silty clay loams/silt loams – Andover Soil type and series 1982– 92 Study period Note: aResults represent net median and maximum rate over 4-year period, 1 year for the Starcross site. Chambers and Garwood (2000)a Eastern south Downs, southeast England Somerset Boardman and Favis-Mortlock (1993) Colborne and Staines (1985) Morgan (1985a) Silsoe, Bedfordshire, bare ground Woburn, Bedfordshire, cereals Maulden, Bedfordshire, woodland Ashwell, Bedfordshire, winter wheat Meppershall, Bedfordshire, winter wheat/spring barley Pulloxhill, Bedfordshire, spring barley Hempstead, Norfolk Study site Observed soil erosion rates from field survey in the UK Author Table 4 1.15 0.825 20.0 11.75 1.425 1.0 0.575 10.75 no erosion 35.75 4.25 3.0 no erosion n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 Maximium soil erosion (t ha21 yr21) 348 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches R. Brazier 349 Finally, it is suggested that positive use can be made of the difference in measurement techniques from the methods surveyed. Consistent differences, between 137Cs and field survey data (for example) as illustrated in Figure 1, where 137Cs rates generally exceed survey results, may be consistently describing the same role of alternative processes. Thus, instead of focusing on the inadequacies of various measurement techniques, it may be possible, with future work, to attribute the diverse soil erosion rates to the different processes measured, in this case translocation by tillage perhaps explaining the discrepancies between the datasets. 4 Field survey data Numerous sites in England and Wales have been monitored for water erosion of soils by means of field survey. Typically these surveys have involved the volumetric measurement of rills or erosional features such as ephemeral gullies (Morgan, 1985b, Colborne and Staines, 1985; and Boardman, 1990a), which can then be converted to a soil loss in mass per unit area by applying a bulk density figure for the soil in question. Such literature also includes the qualitative estimation of erosion rates over, in some cases, quite considerable time periods, giving an added Figure 1 Average observed erosion rates from overflight surveys (mean, min, max) against net erosion from 137Cs surveys (t ha21 yr21) Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 350 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches perspective to the assessment of erosion in the UK (Reed, 1983, 1986). In general, these data relate to intensive periods of a few years over which surveys are carried out, the notable exception being the longer term . 10-year monitoring carried out by Boardman on the South Downs. Recourse to these datasets is now made to summarize the rates of erosion recorded, drawing comparisons between both this type of data and other data that exist for the study sites. Direct comparison of field survey data collected between 1982 and 1992 (Boardman and Favis-Mortlock, 1993) and plot data collected on soils of the Andover series (Boardman and Robinson, 1985) can be made, as both datasets were based on the volumetric measurement of rills and ephemeral gullies. Erosion rates monitored in a 36 km2 area of the South Downs during the 10-year period of field survey ranged from 0.84 to 7 t ha21 yr21, whereas rates recorded on the plots ranged from 0.014 to 45.34 t ha21 yr21 with an average annual rate of erosion across all plots of 15.01 t ha21 yr21. Those plots down to winter cereals (the dominant land use in the field survey area, Boardman and Favis-Mortlock, 1993), exhibit a range of erosion rates that may offer some explanation of the rates observed in the field. Low rates of 0.014 t ha21 yr21 are recorded on the plot where winter wheats are directly drilled, higher rates where organic matter is removed by burning prior to drilling and the highest rates occur on plots where seedbed preparation in the form of ploughing and harrowing is practised. Thus, though the observed rates on the plots do not exactly match those from the field survey, they give some indication of which management practices may lead to increased erosion and the unsustainable rates that are observed in some of the fields. A further conclusion to be drawn from the Boardman field survey dataset is that for six of the ten years monitored, average erosion rates exceeded the level of 1.4 t ha21 yr21 deemed to be acceptable by authors such as Evans (1981) and Morgan (1980). This is also true of rates observed by Colborne and Staines (1985) in Somerset, Morgan (1985a) in Bedfordshire and at one of the sites monitored by Chambers and Garwood (2000) in Devon. Furthermore, with the exception of two sites, all field surveys that return maximum erosion rates demonstrate that levels of erosion are unacceptably high if extreme events are considered. Sites in Somerset have been monitored by aerial/ground surveys, 137Cs surveys (as detailed above) and also field-based surveys (Colborne and Staines, 1985). Good agreement exists between the results with average rates ranging from 0.6 to 2.9 t ha21 yr21 from the field surveys, 2.2 t ha21 yr21 from the net 137Cs erosion and 4.89 t ha21 yr21 from the Evans surveys. These separate surveys were all carried out in the same locality though, as discussed above, some differences exist in the timescale over which measurements were made. The similarity of results between these surveys seems to confirm that soil erosion is a problem on the medium silts and loams of this area. Evidence from field survey data throughout England and Wales, despite its limitations in terms of survey technique, does provide an effective means of assessing rill erosion especially on agricultural land that is easily accessed and can be regularly monitored. All sites monitored contain fields that erode heavily and those schemes that provide longer term surveys (notably those of Boardman on the South Downs) show that such rates have occurred throughout the study periods. It is stressed here that the value of such surveys increases with the length for which they are conducted by affording a valuable long-term perspective on rates of change Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 351 of soil erosion and also as a means of evaluating field-scale spatial predictions that are made by soil erosion models. III Related data describing erosion by water The following section describes techniques from which soil erosion rates can be inferred, not directly measured. Nonetheless, if interpreted with care, these data provide a further perspective on erosion rates in the UK and may be used to aid in the evaluation of model performance at the catchment scale. 1 Reservoir sedimentation data The use of bathymetric survey techniques to establish sedimentation rates in reservoirs and consequent sediment yield rates from upland catchments will now be considered. Though in the short term this approach is difficult to reconcile with erosion rates because of the lack of consideration of sediment storage in the system (Boardman and Evans, 1994), over longer timescales average sediment yield figures provide useful datasets describing the movement of sediment over (for instance) the past 100 years – see Table 5. A further limitation of this approach is the assumption that all sediment yield into reservoirs in upland areas is due to erosion by water. Whilst this is unlikely to be the case, as (for example) translocation by tillage or wind erosion may move sediment, water erosion (which may include rill, interrill, gullying or bank erosion) is the dominant process that supplies sediment from upland catchments. Unlike the previous techniques, this method is not born out of a direct interest in soil erosion; moreover, the problem of sedimentation of reservoirs is often perceived as a water resource problem, owing to the reduced capacity and life of such structures (Verstraeten and Poesen, 2000). Nonetheless volumetric surveys of sediment accumulation, combined with appropriate characterization of bulk density and use of a trap efficiency term, enable the calculation of sediment yields from catchments (e.g., Rowan et al., 1995), providing a useful insight into spatial variations in sediment yield estimates (Butcher et al., 1993). The following section reviews a range of reservoir sedimentation studies as a means of quantifying long-term erosion rates typically in upland areas of the UK. Perhaps the most detailed study of reservoir sedimentation rates in the UK was carried out by Butcher et al. (1993) who focused on an area of the Southern Pennines, completing surveys of some 113 lakes and reservoirs between 1984 and 1991. In the interest of compiling a high quality dataset, only 28 of these sites were further analysed. The results from this study (and those of other reservoirs throughout the UK) are presented in Table 5. A considerable range of sediment yield rates is observed, not only at the Southern Pennines sites but also throughout the other sites studied. However, these rates, which represent average erosion rates from the catchments over the long term (often in excess of 100 years), only exceed acceptable levels of erosion as established by Evans (1981) and Morgan (1980) at 11 of the 35 sites. On this evidence it appears that erosion in the upland areas where these catchments are situated is less significant than corresponding rates on lowland agricultural land, Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 Barden Upper Blackmoor-foot Broomhead Chew Cod Beck Deanhead Embsay Gorple Upper Gorpley Graincliffe Green Withens Holme Styles Ingbirchworth Kinder Langsett Mixenden Reva Silsden Snailsden Strines Thornton Moor Widdop Strines, South Pennines Catcelugh, Northumberland Butcher et al. (1993) Young (1958)a Hall (1967)b Reservoir 1882 1876 1929 1914 1953 1840 1909 1934 1905 1885 1898 1840 1868 1912 1905 1873 1894 1860 1899 1871 1885 1978 Year of construction Sediment yield from reservoir sedimentation studies Author Table 5 1989 1988 1988 1987 1989 1986 1989 1989 1990 1989 1990 1988 1990 1987 1989 1989 1990 1990 1990 1988 1989 1988 Year of survey 6.34 8.20 21.96 2.92 7.12 2.00 2.95 3.80 2.80 5.00 3.40 2.20 7.72 8.95 21.06 0.77 2.91 7.85 0.84 11.70 5.12 8.90 Catchment area (km2) 125.05 89.81 51.00 212.69 74.36 37.90 165.39 64.24 143.34 69.40 21.73 2.90 88.25 135.14 169.30 11.00 286.14 221.61 289.46 113.40 35.11 101.30 39.41 43.1 Estimated sediment yield (t km22 yr21) 1.25 0.90 0.51 2.13 0.74 0.38 1.65 0.64 1.43 0.69 0.22 0.03 0.88 1.35 1.69 0.11 2.86 2.22 2.89 1.13 0.35 1.01 0.39 0.43 Estimated sediment yield (t ha21 yr21) 352 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches North Esk, SE Scotland Hopes, SE Scotland Kelly, Strathclcyle Trentabank, Macclesfield Forest Glenfarg and Glenquey, S. Scotland Pinmacher Holl Earlsburn North Third Lambieletham Harpleas Drumain Cullaloe Glanfrag Glenquey Carron Valley Abbeystead, Lancashire Notes a Cited in McManus and Duck (1985). b after Walling and Webb (1987). Rowan et al. (1995) Ledger et al. (1974) Stott and Duck (1988) McManus and Duck (1985) Duck and McManus (1990) Ledger et al. (1974) 1851 1876 1930 1948 1963 1970 1980 1991 48.70 34.5– 49.3 26.1– 31.3 25.00 26.00 41.00 0.345 – 0.493 0.261 – 0.313 50.90 72.30 206.20 205.40 2.10 13.80 3.90 30.80 52.00 15.10 141.90 242.00 78.00 373.00 369.00 170.00 208.00 96.00 0.51 0.72 2.06 2.05 0.02 0.14 0.04 0.31 0.52 0.15 1.42 2.42 0.78 3.73 3.69 1.70 2.08 0.96 0.25 0.26 0.41 R. Brazier Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 353 354 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches as discussed above. However, the catchment values include storage before the reservoir, so it would be possible to have unacceptable erosion within catchment that is deposited elsewhere in the system. Despite this catchment storage, over the long term, records describing sedimentation of all the reservoirs studied still indicate that erosion is widespread and a significant concern for land degradation and water resource issues alike. Maximum rates in these areas are not easily derived from survey techniques, therefore comparison of event-based rates or even annual sediment yields are not made here. Doubtless low-frequency, high-magnitude events are responsible for significant portions of long-term sediment yields, as mass movements (for example) will tend to contribute large amounts of sediment directly to channels in upland areas. These fluctuations in sediment delivery ratio underline the fact that such data cannot be used to determine sediment yields on a short temporal basis and are best used to assess changes in sediment flux over long time periods. Previous studies by Walling and Webb (1987) and Newson and Leeks (1985) suggest that long-term sediment yields from upland areas are in the region of 0.3 and 0.5 t ha21 yr21, respectively. Results from sites reviewed here are generally greater than these estimates, perhaps because of the anthropogenic influence upon erosion, as in lowland areas. For instance, results derived from the Abbeystead reservoir surveys peak between 1930 and 1948. Rowan et al. (1995) propose that this is due to the improvement of land in order to increase food productivity, and that subsequently rates have decreased as land has largely been returned to grazing; an observation that is also supported by Foster et al. (1990). Reservoir sedimentation data provide a unique means of assessing sediment yields in upland areas. Combined with accurate trap efficiency terms, such data afford useful insights into variation in sediment yield between catchments (which is considerable) and quality data that can be compared with sediment yield and erosion rates throughout the UK. It is apparent from the studies summarized here that though erosion rates may be less significant than those on lowland sites in the UK, in the long term (c. 100 years) upland erosion occurs to a sufficient magnitude and extent to warrant further monitoring and modelling efforts. Consequently these data may be useful to aid model evaluation at the catchment scale at which they are collected (Molino et al., 2001). Furthermore, improvements in measurement techniques that separate suspended sediment and bedload (Duck and McManus, 1994) may provide data for validation of the process description of the movement of sediment within catchment-scale erosion models that explicitly model bedload and suspended sediment separately. 2 Suspended sediment data Monitoring concentrations of suspended sediment in waterways provides an important source of information to aid understanding of the off-site impacts of soil erosion. Numerous authors (Table 6 describes a representative selection) have monitored a wide range of catchments for sediment fluxes. Robson and Neal (1997) describe results over the last 20 years of the Harmonised Monitoring Scheme, which has sought to quantify not only the input of suspended solids from rivers to estuaries but also a suite of water quality and chemical loads at the large Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 355 Table 6 Suspended sediment concentrations from selected monitoring schemes throughout the UK Author River Al-Ansari et al. (1977) Bridges and Harding (1971) Geikie (1868) Almond, Tayside Lower Swansea valley, West Glamoragan Nith, Dumfries and Galloway Clyth, Highland Tyne, Northumberland Derwent, Derbyshire Grains Gill, Cumbria Hodge Beck, Yorkshire Tweed Tyne, Northumberland Wear Tees Ouse, Yorkshire Wharfe Derwent, Derbyshire Aire Don Trent Humber Nene and Welland Ouse, Bedfordshire Blackball Stream Barle Upper Exe Batherm Exe Lowman Dart Exe Jackmoor Brook Creedy Clum Clum Clyst Hall (1967) Harvey (1974) Imeson (1971) Robson and Neal (1997) Walling and Webb (1987) Site Catchment area (km2) Suspended sediment yield (t ha21 yr21) 2.7 –9.4 0.60 0.68 Norham Wylam Lamb Bridge Low Worsall Naburn Tadcaster Loftsome Bridge Beal Doncaster Dunham – – Earith Lyshwell Brushford Pixton Bampton Stoodleigh Tiverton Bickleigh Thorverton Pynes Cottage Cowley Woodmill Rewe Clyst Honiton 2.1 128.0 160.0 64.5 422.0 53.7 46.0 601.0 9.8 262.0 226.0 273.0 98.2 0.25 0.68 1.17 400.00 4.80 0.13 0.19 0.33 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.12 0.30 0.35 0.13 0.18 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.16 0.19 0.35 0.20 0.52 0.58 0.28 0.30 0.39 0.32 0.20 0.26 catchment scale. Prior to this, Walling and Webb (1987) instrumented a number of catchments in the southwest of England to quantify suspended sediment transport in UK rivers. However, care must be taken when interpreting results from such monitoring schemes as suspended sediment only represents a portion of the total sediment yielded from catchments. For example, Duck and McManus (1994) found that suspended sediment accounted for only 54.4% of the total sediment yield in the Pinmacher catchment and it is argued by Lewin et al. (1974) that only 20% of the total sediment load may be in suspension. Furthermore, Newson (1981) postulates that in lower gradient channels, suspended sediment may only account for , 11% of sediment yield. Nonetheless, examination of these datasets is Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 356 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches worthwhile as they provide a means of assessing long-term trends in the off-site impacts of soil erosion (in terms of river water quality) and also large spatial scale data on the flux of sediment in UK rivers. Highest sediment yield rates included in Table 5 obtain from a gullied system (Harvey, 1974) and a disturbed moorland catchment that was affected by burning (Imeson, 1971). Though these rates are therefore not representative of sediment yields in UK rivers in general, they provide an insight into the potential yields of suspended sediment in catchments that are highly erosive. Perhaps more representative of typical UK conditions are the Exe basin (Walling and Webb, 1987) and Harmonised Monitoring Scheme (HMS) datasets (Simpson, 1980), which describe relatively low average rates from catchments at a wide range of scales. In part, these average figures may be low because of the way in which such data are collected, for instance, long timesteps between sampling (c. 2 weeks with the HMS data), which may prevent sampling of hydrograph peaks (when turbidity may be highest). However, data collected at most sites are consistently of the same order of magnitude, and are well below the aforementioned levels of ‘acceptable’ erosion rates. Though suspended sediment only represents a portion of the total sediment transported in channel, such results reflect the fact that UK rivers carry low levels of suspended sediment unless in spate (Robson and Neal, 1997). Suspended sediment time series will not provide an accurate description of total sediment yield from a catchment. Such data can be useful, however, if a description of the movement of fines is needed. One example might be to determine whether the movement of sediment into water courses may impact upon the construction of salmon ‘redds’ (Crisp and Carling, 1989; Carling, 1995). Also much recent work (Sharpley et al., 2000; Withers et al., 2000) has recognized the need for control of nutrients from farm lands, often associated with fine sediments, into channel networks. Thus, monitoring suspended sediment within schemes such as the HMS plays an important role in the quantification of sediment fluxes. A further role that these datasets can play is in providing validation data for largescale modelling efforts, which are notoriously hard to evaluate given the paucity of observed data (Brazier et al., 2001a). Modelling approaches such as ANSWERS (Beasley et al., 1980) and MEDRUSH (Abrahart et al., 1994), which simulate soil loss at the catchment or landscape scale, require quality time series of data (typically both flow and sediment) against which to validate model performance. If such models are to be implemented and indeed improved it is argued here that use of long-term large-scale datasets (for example the HMS data) is made to both assess model predictions and provide confidence limits with which to bracket predictions, as is illustrated in Brazier et al. (2000). IV Discussion 1 The need for continued monitoring It is apparent from the monitoring schemes reviewed here that a range of high quality data exist that describe erosion by water in the UK. Furthermore, it is recognized that monitoring has an integral role to play in the sustainable management of lowland agricultural land in particular. Despite the movement towards modelling of Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 357 soil loss, field observations or implementation of remediation strategies may yield more economical (and efficient) solutions in local areas than the application of the existing generation of erosion models (Boardman, 1990a). Thus, though continued monitoring of soil loss is vital for model improvement, it must also be treated as a means in itself to aid soil conservation and to inform catchment managers and decision/policy makers alike as to the erodibility of soils. It is difficult to conclude which datasets provide the most accurate description of soil erosion in the UK and thus to conclude definitively what the true extent and magnitude of water erosion is. Indeed, it seems most prudent to treat each data source as separate, representing slightly different perspectives on erosion rates over varying spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, from the variety of sources of evidence reviewed here it is clear that erosion by water occurs throughout the UK. Whilst the numerous monitoring experiments and indirect measures of soil erosion produce a considerable range of soil erosion rates within the UK, it is further clear that water erosion can exceed acceptable levels on a variety of different soils and under a variety of different management practices. The continuous monitoring of soil erosion in the UK, however, has declined after a ‘peak’ of interest in the discipline in the mid-1980s (Favis-Mortlock, 1994). Whether this is due to lack of funding for data collection or a concentration of efforts in other areas (such as modelling), is not relevant, as the paradox that this lack of recent data collection creates still remains. Whilst modelling may provide an efficient means of assessing (predicting) soil erosion at a given scale, neither improvements in the level of model accuracy (or uncertainty surrounding model results) nor in the process representation of those physically based models can be made without recourse to high quality observed data. Therefore, if models replace data collection, will model results ever truly be a substitute for field data? Here it is argued that will not be the case. Furthermore it is argued that a return to collection and use of datasets that closely match the output of soil erosion models is crucial for the development of the discipline as a whole. To underline this, an example of work evaluating the uncertainty surrounding results produced by the WEPP soil erosion model (Nearing et al., 1989) is now discussed. The WEPP was initiated by the USDA in 1985 to succeed the USLE and provide a ‘new generation of water erosion prediction technology . . .’ (Nearing et al., 1989). Though claiming to be ‘process-based’, certain sub-models (notably those relating to erodibility) are, in fact, parameterized by regression relationships drawn from empirical plot data collected throughout the USA (Lane and Nearing, 1989). The WEPP model was evaluated against similar plots that were not included in the original parameterization (Zhang et al., 1996) producing results which were reasonable (estimated soil loss versus observed soil loss r 2 50%). Thus, data at the correct spatial and temporal scales were employed to test the accuracy of WEPP in the kind of environment for which the model was developed. However, conclusions were drawn that emphasized the need for further validation on a wider range of scenarios before the model could be used with confidence at other sites (Zhang et al., 1996), notably those outside the USA. Further to this, it was argued by Brazier et al. (2000) that given the validation data that exist for WEPP, more in-depth analysis was needed prior to use of the model on sites other than those for which it was developed (i.e., anything other than standard USLE plots). Results of the uncertainty Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 358 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches analyses implemented by Brazier et al. (2000) show that even on these sites, uncertainty surrounding model predictions is considerable and for sites in the UK and USA must be considered alongside standard model output to qualify accuracy of the results produced; a similar conclusion to that drawn by Quinton (1997) with respect to the EUROSEM model. In spite of these recommendations and work by authors such as Oreskes et al. (1994) who warn that ‘models can only be evaluated in relative terms, and their predictive value is always open to question’, use of WEPP as a management tool has been promoted since its early development (Lane and Nearing, 1989; Laflen et al., 1991), a clear case of model capability being outpaced by end-user demands or unrealistic expectations of the model. It is suggested by Brazier et al. (2001a) and in this paper that use of the high quality observed data that exist should be made to improve reliability of results and constrain uncertainty prior to reliance upon the accuracy of model predictions within a decision-making framework. 2 Soil erosion policy in the UK The increasing need for policy relating to soil erosion in the UK is another area within which the aforementioned paradox becomes relevant. Despite recognition by authors of the need for a nationwide soil erosion policy (Boardman, 1988a; Morgan and Rickson, 1990), there has been little change in local or central government policy to deal with soil erosion and related problems. In part, this must be because soil erosion is not perceived as a problem in the UK and will therefore not be under current agricultural policy at the EU level. Some guidance exists in the form of the Soil Code ‘code of good agricultural practice’, however this only represents advice and as such is not enforceable by law (Brazier, 2000). Most recently the draft soil strategy for England was published (see http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/consult/ dss/response/index.htm March 2001) inviting comments and outlining a strategy that included the monitoring of soil for quality, diversity and rate of change but making only minimal reference to that of soil erosion. An overview of responses has now been published and though it contains references to problems such as the loss of organic matter in soils, which may lead to increased erosion, it details very little in the way of policy relating directly to soil erosion monitoring or prediction. Whilst a soil strategy is welcomed it is argued here that further monitoring for erosion and closely related modelling of erosion should form an integrated part of that strategy in order to provide the basis for policy formulation. 3 Data requirements and modelling The type of soil erosion data or monitoring experiments that most closely complement modelling efforts is highly dependent upon the models in question. As discussed, model development will benefit from the collection of datasets that closely match the output produced by the models. So, hillslope models such as WEPP (Nearing et al., 1989), EUROSEM (Morgan et al., 1994) and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) (Sharpley and Williams, 1990) that have all been applied in the UK and Europe (Cabelguenne et al., 1990; Favis-Mortlock, 1994; Quinton, 1994) require hillslope-scale data to quantify levels of error and to improve model Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. Brazier 359 predictions. It is not satisfactory to simply apply these models in the USA (for instance) and assume that results will be equally reliable elsewhere in the world. As an example, it is clear that there is no ‘universal’ soil loss equation, as any empirically based model will always be limited by the data it is built upon. Any predicted results, therefore, will only describe the range of results from, in the case of the USLE, plot studies within the USA. Plot data must be valued for the detailed description of fluxes of water and sediment that are afforded and the high resolution with which soil erosion processes can be monitored. Thus, here it is stressed that plot data are collected both to provide data for the ongoing validation and evaluation of existing (and future) erosion models and also to further the understanding of processes operating at the hillslope scale that to date are still poorly represented in soil erosion models (see Wainwright et al., 2001 for an example). At the catchment scale both hydrographs and sedigraphs (preferably describing suspended sediment and bedload) are required to validate the output of models such as the Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution System (AGNPS) (Young et al., 1989), ANSWERS (Beasley et al., 1980), GAMES (Dickinson and Rudra, 1990) and MEDRUSH (Kirkby et al., 1993). Furthermore, given the spatial nature of predictions provided by some of these models, data monitored within the catchment at different locations would be advantageous to evaluate model performance at a range of scales (G. Govers, personal communication, 2002) Quine (1999) argues that 137Cs data may provide a means of evaluating spatially distributed erosion models, however, explicit consideration of other soil redistribution processes such as translocation by tillage must be made. Following on from this, if reservoir sedimentation data are to be used to evaluate soil erosion model output (as demonstrated by Molino et al., 2001), then holistic modelling approaches, which bring together all the processes of erosion within such catchments, must be made. Because of the range of processes that may contribute sediment to upland reservoirs, models that do not take into account gullying, for example, may grossly underpredict total sediment yields from catchments (Poesen et al., 1996). The problem of scaling within soil erosion models is well documented by Kirkby (1998) who call for data nested at different scales, to evaluate whether modelling systems such as the MEDALUS approach accurately address the issue of changing dominant processes at different scales. Though data describing these changes exist in the form of suspended sediment flux, no datasets reviewed here would allow a rigorous spatial validation of catchment-scale soil erosion models. It is suggested that either existing monitoring schemes are modified to include some assessment of all sediment sources or future schemes set up to characterise these fluxes and thus provide time series of total sediment fluxes at a variety of scales within catchments (see Wainwright et al., 2001). Larger or global scale models (Kirkby and Cox, 1995; Drake et al., 1999; Brazier et al., 2001b) are not easily validated given the coarse scales at which they operate. Grid cell sizes may be large; 4 km 4 km in the case of the Drake et al. (1999) model which cannot, therefore, be validated against any of the directly monitored datasets reviewed here. A novel approach that has been employed by Zhang et al. (2002) is to downscale model output to the scale of the observed data that exist. Limitations with this technique focus on the timescale over which the field measurements were made and the different techniques that were employed to down-scale. Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 360 Quantifying soil erosion by water: monitoring and modelling approaches However, preliminary results are encouraging and demonstrate the way in which existing observations can be used to validate coarse scale output (Drake et al., 1999). Use of related datasets, such as time series of flow and sediment flux measured at the large catchment scale, could also be made to evaluate the predictions of these models at least at catchment outlets and potentially at different spatial scales within catchments; this work is ongoing (N.A. Drake, personal communication, 2002). A further point that should be stressed was first highlighted by Dunne (1984), reiterated by Boardman (1990b) and is relevant here also. These authors suggested that knowledge and observations of a catchment are crucial to the understanding of erosion, an argument that holds true with respect to the development of erosion models that attempt to represent these catchments. Though validation may usefully be carried out ‘blind’ as with the International Geosphere – Biosphere Programme – Global and Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (IGBP-GCTE) validation exercise (Favis-Mortlock et al., 1996; Jetten et al., 1999) improving models post-validation may well be aided by a ‘real’ or field-based understanding of the observed dataset. For example, Jetten et al. (1999) underline the importance of predicting the spatial pattern of runoff rather than just the net output, an outcome which is more easily realized by observing the spatial distribution of overland flow (for example) within a catchment during events (Brazier et al., 2003). Furthermore, Jetten et al. (1999) report that so-called ‘soft’ information relating to the physical state of the soil or topography are vital to improvements in model predictions and must therefore be incorporated into future model development and future data collection strategies. V Conclusions Though soil erosion rates by water are in general relatively low in the UK, this review demonstrates that erosion occurs to significant levels throughout the UK on both upland and lowland areas. It is further concluded that monitoring of erosion must continue to maintain a long-term perspective on soil erosion as a problem that, to date, has yet to be fully quantified let alone fully understood. In general despite the numerous quality datasets that exist in the UK, it seems clear that a paucity of datasets exist with which to rigorously validate erosion models. Those datasets that are available provide useful information as to erosion rates throughout the UK but are not ideally suited to model validation and development, being in some way qualitative and not compatible with model output. Whilst these data should be used to a greater extent to evaluate the accuracy of erosion models, other data must also be collected that provide a more suitable means of assessing the performance of erosion models and, hence, improve the representation and understanding of physical processes within model frameworks. Future research, through data collection, must ensure that the paradox that exists between data collection and modelling does not continue. If progress in both model evaluation techniques and consequent improvement of the predictive capabilities of soil erosion models is to be made, more quality observed data are required at the relevant spatial and temporal scales. Furthermore, these data must be collected within integrated projects that allow data collection to closely match model output. Downloaded from ppg.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on September 12, 2016 R. 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