MEASURING THE CRYOSPHERE
The cryosphere is the most sensitive to
changes in climate of all environmental
systems at the earth surface.
LECTURE 11:
REVIEW
BUT
……relatively few measurements because of
geographical remoteness, large scale,
extreme conditions, extreme variability (e.g.
snow extent, ice avalanches, floods), and the
long time-scale of some cryospheric
processes.
CHANGES IN SYSTEMS
TRENDS, AMPLITUDE AND FREQUENCY
Temperature forcing
of changes in cold
region systems
Some of the main issues raised in Chapter 1 of your book.
1. Global environmental changes can be systemic and cumulative
2. Linear versus non-linear response
1) What are the
longterm
Amplitude (A) and
Frequency (F) of
temperature
fluctuations?
3. Feedback mechanisms: positive and negative
4. System response: storage – lagged response – catastrophic events
Æ landscapes are always in “ incomplete transition” and “readjustment”
2) Are the longterm A
and F constant or do
you see a shift over
time?
5. Scales of systems: spatial and temporal
6. Temporal and spatial variability: worldwide trend ≠ local trend
3) What are the ‘short
term’ A and F in the T
record?
7. Instabilities in systems and “tipping points”
Time
4) Answer Qs 1-3 for the
CO2 record.
FREEZE-UP AND BREAKUP DATES FROM
NORTHERN LAKES AND RIVERS
EXTENT AND AGE OF SEA ICE
Time series of
freeze-up and
breakup dates from
several northern
lakes and rivers.
Data have been
smoothed with a 10year moving
average.
Sea-ice-albedo feedback
(Magnuson et al., 2000, AAAS)
1
LARGE-SCALE REGIONAL MEAN LENGTH VARIATIONS
Large-scale regional mean length variations of glacier tongues (Oerlemans, 2005). The raw data are all
constrained to pass through zero in 1950. SH (tropics, New Zealand, Patagonia), NW N-America (mainly
Canadian Rockies), Atlantic (South Greenland, Iceland, Jan Mayen, Svalbard, Scandinavia), European Alps
and Asia (Caucasus and central Asia).
GLACIER MASS BALANCE CURVES
GLACIER LENGTH ADJUSTMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
www.knmi.nl/~klok/inverse.html
CRYOSPHERE COMPONENTS RESPONSE TIMES
Changes in the components of the cryosphere occur at different time scales,
depending on their dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics.
latitudinal,
altitudinal
&
continentality effects
Glacier mass balance-elevation
curves, glacier hypsometry and
glacier size (length) affect
response time of glaciers to
climate change
PERMAFROST DISTRIBUTION
Permafrost
(frozen ground)
Periglacial environment
Continuous permafrost
zone coincides
approximately with the
10°C isotherm
Present landcover <20%
At LGM ~ 40%
2
PERMAFROST LANDFORMS
CANADA ECOZONES
• cryoturbation (cryosols or gelisols)
• ice wedge polygons
• hummocks
• (non)sorted circles, polygons & stripes
• alases
• palsas
• pingos
ARCTIC ECOZONE CLASSIFICATION
Position of summer and winter arctic
front in relation to the polar treeline /
the southern boundary of the boreal
forest in North America.
Arctic ecozones based on the mean temperature of the warmest month
<2°C
= Polar desert
2-6°C
= Northern Tundra
Arctic/Polar
6-10°C = Southern Tundra
>10°C
Subarctic/Subpolar
= Forest tundra to Boreal forest zone
Latitudinal profiles of radiation and
length of the frost-free season in
relation to vegetation zones in
northern Canada. (from Hare & Ritchie 1972, in
Archibold 1995)
Arctic front =
1) Semipermanent, semi-continuous front between
the deep, cold arctic air and the shallower, less cold
polar air of northern latitudes.
2) Southern boundary of the Arctic air mass.
ICE AND BIOME DISTRIBUTION
TREELINE MIGRATION
LGM (~21000 yr BP)
Difficult to measure:
1) Highest tree (or farthest North) often not found
2) Present treeline inaccurate
3) Present treeline not in equilibrium with present climate
4.5°C colder than today
Ice sheets
Sea level
Permafrost
Loess
Deserts
ASYMMETRIC RESPONSE TO CLIMATE FORCING:
Northward (or up-mountain) migration of treeline much more rapid than
southward (or down-slope) migration
Æ Established trees might survive for a while in deteriorated climate, but new
trees will not establish in such a climate
Holocene Climate Optimum (~6000 yr BP)
“Hypsithermal”
2°C warmer than today
Sea level (Hudson bay/Baltic sea)
Wetter conditions
Lakes
Great Lakes formed
Tundra/Taiga/Rain forest
Alpine treelines were >200m higher than at present during Hypsithermal (6-3.5 ky BP)
Petit-Maire et al. (1999).
3
REGIONS WHERE GLACIER HAZARDS
ARE CURRENTLY PROBLEMATIC
PARAGLACIAL SEDIMENTS
Gully incision
Large
fluctuations
in
energy/size
Angular large
boulders
Chandra River, Himachal Pradesh, Indian Himalayas, June 2006
Quincey et al. (2005)
PARAGLACIAL sediment reworking
PARAGLACIAL exhaustion curves
PARAGLACIAL period
TERMINOLOGY
Æ The ‘paraglacial period’ is the period of readjustment from a
glacial to a nonglacial condition, as:
‘fluvial, slope and aeolian systems relax towards a nonglacial
state’ (Benn and Evans, 1998, p. 261).
Æ
At the scale of the Pleistocene land ice, this paraglacial period
occurred between 12-6ky BP
Geomorphological and system theories:
-
Hutton (1880s): geological cycle
-
Church (1970s): paraglacial
-
Hewitt (1990s): landscapes of transition
- Brunsden (1990): System stability
- Holling: resilience (1973) & panarchy (2002)
Æ
At the smaller, Alpine glacier retreat scale we are still in the
middle of it
- Diamond’s (2005) collapse of societies
4
LANDSCAPE SYSTEM STABILITY & SENSITIVITY
PANARCHY
Phillips (2009) framework for the assessment of geomorphic
changes and responses based on “4 Rs”:
™ Response (reaction and relaxation times)
™ Resistance (relative to the drivers of change)
™ Resilience (recovery ability, based on dynamical stability)
™ Recursion (positive and/or negative feedbacks)
Resilience =
R = growth phase
K = phase where resources are less widely available
Reaction to drivers & constraints
Omega = release or creative destruction phase
Æ Adaptation
Alpha = reorganisation and restructuring
Panarchy works at different scales and over different time frames
capacity to deal with change and continue to develop.
Ecosystem resilience, social resilience, etc.
Video: Buzz Holling, father of the resilience theory (11 min)
http://stockholmresilience.org/seminarandevents/seminarandeventvideos/buzzhollingfatheroftheresiliencetheory.5.aeea46911a3127427980003713.html
PANARCHY AND SUSTAINABILITY
DIAMOND’S SOCIETAL COLLAPSE MODEL
Panarchy makes ‘sustainability” not a static condition that need to be
preserved for future generations.
Traditional ‘sustainability”
Æ ignores transcience, transitional states and collapse as normal
environmental characteristics
Pattern of punctuated change is the norm
TIPPING POINTS
TIPPING POINTS
Many complex systems have critical thresholds – “tipping points” - at which the system shifts
abruptly from one state to another.
Planetary boundaries/tipping points and our present situation
In: Medicine Æ asthma attacks or epileptic seizures
Global finance Æ systemic market crashes
Earth system Æ abrupt shifts in ocean circulation or climate
Ecosystems Æ catastrophic shifts in rangelands, fish or wildlife populations
Map of potential
climatic “tipping
elements” .
Tipping elements are
regional-scale
features of the climate
that could exhibit
threshold-type
behaviour in response
to human-driven
climate change
5
SUMMARY OF GEOMORPHOLOGICAL
AND SYSTEMS THINKING
™ Dynamic nature of cryosphere contradicts the
classical notion of sustainability
™ View systems over different time periods to
understand the processes and ‘cycles’
SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION IN LAST 30 YEARS
™ Geophysical methods (GPS, RES, Seismic, Gravity)
™ Remote sensing
™ Ice coring and analysis
™ Planners need to include change & uncertainty about
the change (AND possible surprises) into their plans
™ Computer modelling
™ Implement adaptive management techniques
™ Dating methods
™ Automatic weather stations
IMPURITIES IN POLAR ICE AND THEIR SOURCES
ICE CORE ANALYSIS
WHY?
Reveals
local
regional
global
histories of climate and atmospheric chemistry
WHAT?
Dating
- absolute versus synchronised
Palaeothermometry - layer thickness (P), borehole temperature (T),
isotope fractionation (O).
Aerosols
- dust sources, pollen, micrometeorites
Gases
- atmospheric composition, solar activity
Relationship CO2 and T ≠ linear
SEA SALT
Na+, Cl- (Mg++, Ca++, SO4-, K+)
OCEANS
TERRESTRIAL SALT
Mg++, Ca++, CO3-. SO4- (AlSi)
CONTINENTS
CONTINENTAL SHELVES
TEPHRA + GASSES
H+, Sulphate, Nitrate
Shards – ash layers
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
BIOLOGICAL GASES
H+, NH4+, CL-, NO3-,SO4- , CH2,
SO3-, F-, HCOO(+ other organic compounds)
BIOLOGICAL & ANTHROPOGENIC
GAS EMISSIONS
COSMOGENIC RADIONUCLIDES
10Be, 36Cl, 14C
INTERACTION COSMIC RAYS-ATOMS
Solar activity + Geomagnetic field
10Be
concentration (relative to the mean value) at South Pole
S
Bard et al. 1997, 2000
Dashed line is a smoothed curve
¾ CO2 max 290 ppm in the last 650,000 yrs until the most recent increase, which is
unequivocally due to human activities.
Scale is inverted Æ times of greater solar irradiance are upwards.
“M” marks the Maunder Minimum in sunspot number.
¾ CO2 accounts for only ~1/3 of the total the temperature increase in the past
“S” marks the Spörer minimum
¾ CO2 is amplifier of climate (trigger is most often orbital or ocean oscillations)
Co-triggers of LIA?
6
Insolation co-trigger of climate change at longer timescales:
THE MILANKOVITCH CYCLE
Greenland warmer than Antarctica
Milankovich Analogue Data
(Quinn et al. 1991)
Numbers are InterStadials
NOW EVERYTHING COMBINED
Major findings from
ice cores drilled in
the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets
Insolation records
δD from EPICA Dome C
(3,000-yr averages) and
Vostok, and MIS stage #
Marine oxygen isotope record.
Blue = tuned low-latitude
stack MD900963 + ODP6773;
Red= stack of 7 sites <400 kyr
and ODP677 >400kyr
Æ Close correlation between climate and greenhouse gas concentrations >700,000yr
Æ Ice ages are dustier, some storm tracks change
Æ Some atmospheric chemistry is regional (e.g. CH4)
Æ Anthropogenic influences on atmosphere are global (nuclear tests, emissions)
Æ Some climate oscillations are global, others confined to N Hemisphere
Æ Coupling of timing and magnitude of global climate changes between the 2 hemispheres
Dust from EPICA Dome C.
Æ Rapid and large oscillations during the last glacial period and the end of the last
transition (start Holocene).
Æ Climatic stability of the last 10,000 years contrasts with extreme climate variability
through most of the rest of the last glacial
Æ Last interglacial (125,000 yr BP) was 2-5°C warmer than present (orbital forcing)
REMEMBER THIS TASK?
Download one of the snow, ice, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice datasets from
the National Snow and Ice Data Center Virtual Globes data
http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/index.html
LAND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE
Direct in situ T measurements
combined with proxy measurements
and climate models
3) Explore these data in Google Earth and make a brief note of the following:
¾
What dataset did you look at and what is the main finding/observation.
¾
Is the phenomenon an isolated event, a trend, a global or regional observation?
¾
What are the forcings/feedback mechanisms/causes and effects of the
phenomenon/process.
¾
What are the links between the process/state/change shown in this cryospheric
system with other cryospheric systems?
THESE QUESTIONS TAUGHT YOU
1) TO UNDERSTAND PRESENTED PHENOMENA,
2) TO THINK ABOUT THE WIDER IMPLICATIONS
3) THINK CRITICALLY
Global Climate Observing System
Comparison of Northern
Hemisphere (NH)
temperature proxies with
model simulations over
the past 1000 yrs, and T
record extension to 2000
yrs using long proxy
temperature data series.
7
COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESS
http://oregonstate.edu/groups/geco/pages/GECO_climate_change_myths_facts.html
http://www.realclimate.org
http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610#
(or the same on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P70SlEqX7oY
EFFECT OF HEAT TRANSPORT TO THE POLES
GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE
Sensible heat
http://www.climate.be/textbook
SURFACE ENERGY BALANCE at a point
T surface
Encyclopedia of Ecology (5 vols.), S. E. Jørgensen and B. D. Fath (eds.), Global Ecology, Vol. 2, pp. 1276-1289, Elsevier, Oxford.
ENERGY BALANCE OVER POLAR TERRAIN
N= NET RADIATION
S= SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX
L = LATENT HEAT FLUX
G = SUBSURFACE HEAT FLUX
M= HEAT FOR MELTING SNOW
Subsurface
Fsol = incoming solar shortwave radiation
FIR↓ = downward longwave radiation flux at surface.
FIR↑ = upward longwave radiation flux at surface (Stefan-Boltzman law e=σT4))
FSE and FLE = sensible and latent heat fluxes
Fcond = conduction flux for ground/ice/snow/ocean surfaces
(Fourier's law: Fcond=-k∂T∂x and mixing dynamics)
Fgeo= geothermal heat flux (av. gradient 75 mW m-2)
8
PROPERTIES OF THE CRYOSPHERE
INFLUENCING SURFACE ENERGY BALANCE
SNOW & ICE
¾ Large albedo Æ reflect large part of incoming energy
¾ Store and release latent heat Æ affect the seasonal cycle of the
surface temperature.
¾ Good insulators Æ reduce the heat loss from underlying surface (land
or ocean) (largest effect in winter)
¾ Storage of water on land Æ sea level regulator
SNOW COVER CHARACTERISTICS
THICKNESS AND STRATIFICATION
= F(snowfall, wind redictribution, T, forest cover, terrain)
DENSIFICATION AND SETTLING
METAMORPHOSIS
Snowpack T gradient Æ dry snow metamorphosis
Rounding and enlarging of crystals Æ wet snow metamorphosis
SEA ICE
¾ Sea ice restricts heat & gas exchange between ocean & atmosphere
¾ When sea ice forms, only a fraction of the salt present in the ocean is
trapped in the ice, the remainder is ejected towards the ocean (brine
rejection).
CRYSTAL TYPE/SIZE
Before and after metamorphosis
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
Critical instability when >1°C / 10cm
PERMAFROST
¾ Patterned groundÆ albedo and surface roughness
¾ Melt Æ sea level
CRYOSPHERIC FEEDBACKS
SNOW AND ICE
Æ Snow-ice-albedo feedback
SEA ICE
Æ Sea ice-albedo-polynia feedback
PERMAFROST
Æ Melt-GHG release feedback
HEAT PROPERTIES OF ICE AND SNOW
LATENT HEAT OF FUSION OF ICE
amount of energy required to transform ice to water at the melting point
3.34x105 J kg-1
SPECIFIC HEAT
heat energy required to increase the temperature of a unit quantity of a
material one degree (C or K)
Water vapour (100°C) 2.08 J/(g·K) (or kJ/(kg·K))
Water liquid (25°C) 4.18 J/(g·K)
Ice (-10°C) 2.05 J/(g·K)
Æ compare: bedrock specific heat capacity only ~0.2 J/(g·K)
What is the effect of snow/ice cover on the earth’s
energy budget given the above properties?
MASS BALANCE MODELLING
REMOTE SENSING OF THE CRYOSPHERE
Degree day MELT models:
Calculate the average melt for snow and ice per day with T > 0ºC
For example:
msnow = 0.03 m/PDD
mice = 0.08 m/PDD
What?
Sea-ice
Glaciers and ice sheets
Snow cover
Remote
Large areas
Changing
(but you can vary the factors according to where you are on an ice sheet/glacier)
Æ You can include superimposed ice as a fraction of the snow meltwater
(m w.e.)
Sice = 0.6msnow
Energy balance models:
Calculate physical processes of energy balance at the glacier surface
Æ Need measurements
Æ Need to know physical processes
Why? Monitoring of
Status
Changes
Process studies (understanding)
Verification of models
Early warnings
Predictions
9
WHICH SATELLITES ARE SUITABLE
FOR WHICH STUDIES?
ANTHROPOCENE
Present climate state is a “no analogue” state
Spectrum determines which spectral bands suitable for certain studies
- visible and NIR (blocked by clouds)
- long wavelengths (microwave and radar)
Term coined by Paul Crutzen to indicate anthropogenic change of natural
climate system state Æ most clearly defined as starting in 1990s
Ruddiman (2003) argues it started with early agriculture (~8000 yrs ago)
SENSOR
- active
- passive
Deforestation
Rice Cultivation
Æ Increased atmospheric CO2(8,000 yrs ago)
Æ Increased atmospheric CH4(5,000 yrs ago)
Resolution determines smallest unit that you can capture
Revisit and size of image determines how often (days) you have coverage
of target
Ground coverage determined how far N or S the images reach
- usually poles not covered
Spread of agriculture
ANTHROPOCENE
Some main broad effects:
1) Connectivity (globalization)
2) Cascading effects through positive feedback
3) New climate forcings (natural resilience insufficient?)
The Real Arctic: Complex, Contradictory & Not Stereotypical
http://vimeo.com/6766425 (5:45)
Matt Sturm interviewed about the real Arctic
Contribution of RF associated with
anthropogenic GHG emissions:
~ 2.6 Wm-2 since 1750
Combined anthropogenic RF:
~1.6 Wm-2 since 1750.
IPCC (2007)
ANTHROPOCENE radiative forcing
ANTHROPOCENE
World population
2009: ~ 6.8 billion
Values represent the forcings in
2005 relative to the start of the
industrial era (~1750 AD).
Types of human
impact:
Population
(waste & food)
Industry
Agriculture
Transport
10
HYDROLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF ASIAN CONTINENT
SNOW AND ICE FOR RIVERS
TYPES OF POLLUTION
ƒ Industrial waste (air/water/solids)
ƒ Human waste
ƒ Transport
ƒ Accidents
ƒ Spills
ƒ Leaks
ƒ Targetted pollution
ƒ Fires
ƒ Volcanic eruptions
ANOTHER TYPE OF POLLUTION:
PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE AFFECTS CARIBOU HABITAT
Shifts in concentrated calving areas of the
central arctic caribou herd, AK, 1980-1995.
(adapted from Wolfe 2000)
PATHWAYS OF POLLUTION
• Air
• Precipitation
Changing pathways due to climate change:
Æ Open water
• Oceans
Æ Air flow patterns
Æ Melting permafrost
• Rivers
• Soil
• Ice (sea and glaciers)
Local versus Global
Often long-range transport
Relationship between mean (SE) density of caribou from the
Central Arctic herd and road density within preferred rugged
terrain, Kuparuk, 1987-1992. a and b indicate a significant
difference (P < 0.05).
(Nellemann and Cameron 1998)
IMPORTANT POLLUTANTS/TOXIC CHEMICALS
Persistant Organic Pollutants (POPs)
Legacy POPs = PCBs, DDTs, HCB (fungicide), PCDDs (dioxins), and chlordane,
diendrin & toxaphene (insecticides), and organophosphate pesticides.
Emergent POPs = Brominated flame retardants (BFRs), endosulfan & lindane
(pesticides), fluorinated compounds (in non-stick coatings and stain repellents).
Organophosphate pesticides
Æ insecticides, herbicides, nerve gas, solvents, plasticizers, and extreme pressure
additives (for lubricants).
Æ degrade rapidly by hydrolysis on exposure to sunlight, air, and soil
Æ small amounts can be detected in food and drinking water
Mercury
Æ Slowly phased out in scientific equipment
Asia currently 50% of mercury emissions
Lead, Zinc, Copper
Pipes, fillings, paint
Radioactivity
Æ Many contaminants accumulate in fatty (lipid) tissue
• Visitor invasion
• Industrial activity
PREDICTION OF POLLUTION EFFECTS
Heat and salt content are important
factors affecting
1) the functioning of polar ecosystems
2) the rates of substance flows
3) the stratification of the water, internal
waves, circulation patterns, sea ice
distribution
Æ in order to predict and make timely
decisions after the appearance of
undesirable trends or extreme
environmental situations, it is necessary
to understand environmental processes,
and construct models of abiotic and
biotic relationships.
http://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/rw/waste-safety/north-test-site-final.pdf
11
POLLUTION AND DISTURBANCE IN THE ARCTIC
ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS
Ecosystems have 4 basic components:
25 Dec 08:
~100,000 gallons of oil-water mix
escaped a corroded waterinjection pipeline at Kuparuk,
N America’s 2nd biggest oil field.
1. The abiotic environment
2. Producers (autotrophs)
3. Consumers (heterotrophs)
4. Decomposers
The Arctic tundra
ecosystem is extremely
sensitive to pollution and
disturbance.
Trophic level the position that an
organism occupies in a food chain
(or food web)
Æ Poor soils and harsh climate
leave little margin for tundra
systems to restore themselves.
Æ Damage from erosion
persists for centuries, and the
extinction of any species affects
many others.
Example of clean-up operation:
Kuparuk 2U Pad crude oil spill, 5-6 Jan 2008.
Æ what an organism eats, and
what eats the organism
Photo Credit: ADEC – J. Ebel
http://www.dec.state.ak.us/spar/perp/gallery/gallery.htm
Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation
Prevention and Emergency Response photo gallery
ECOLOGICAL CHANGES AND DISTURBANCES
IN THE ARCTIC
Every arrow means a move up a trophic level
HOW DO CONTAMINANTS GET CONCENTRATED
IN COLD ENVIRONMENTS?
Solvent switching
Æ NO FAST RESPONSES
Æ e.g. all of the contaminant moves from air to water: increased concentration in
water
Solvent depletion
Æ removal of solvent by a variety of processes (next slide)
Æ can lead to “fugacity amplification” (fugacity reflects the tendency of a substance
to prefer one phase: liquid, solid, or gas)
Bioaccumulation
Æ organism absorbs toxic substance at a greater rate than that at which the
substance is lost
Æ within a trophic level
Biomagnification/bioamplification/biological magnification
Timescale of ecological processes in relation to natural disturbances (shown as
breaks in horizontal lines) in the Arctic.
http://www.www.eoearth.org/article/Introduction_to_Arctic_Tundra_and_Polar_Desert_Ecosystems
SOLVENT DEPLETION PROCESSES
Æ increase in concentration of a toxic substance in a food chain resulting from
a) persistence (slow degradation), b) Food chain energetics, or c) low rate of
internal degradation/excretion (often due to water-insolubility)
Æ across trophic levels
Combined effects
BIOLOGICAL ACCUMULATION & MAGNIFICATION
organic carbon metabolism
inefficient lipid transfer
Causal link between POPs and adverse health in top predators
Æ hormone, immune and reproductive systems
diminishing snow
volume due to
compaction or melting
exclusion
into water
by
freezing
Many indigenous populations in the Arctic have poorer health than
the national averages = combination of western food, lifestyle
choices and polluted food
Æ cardiovascular, reproductive, hormone, neurological, metabolic
and immune systems.
Traditional food remains important for social, cultural, nutritional,
economic and spiritual reasons
loss of water
surface area
and volume
loss of lipid
pool
12
ARCTIC HAZE IS SEASONAL
ARCTIC HAZE IN THE “ARCTIC DOME”
Arctic haze is the result of the ‘trapping’ of air masses in Arctic Dome (of cold
air) that sits over the North Pole region. The Arctic Dome is confined by the
Arctic front, which is the boundary between polar and arctic air masses and
lies to the north of the Polar Front (= boundary of polar & warmer air masses).
Peaks in late winter and spring and is most
severe when stable, high-pressure systems
produce clear, calm weather.
Removed by wind or rain
This rain is often acid rain
WHY DOES ARCTIC HAZE FORM
OVER THE ARCTIC REGION???
SOURCE REGIONS
The Arctic Front is discontinuous and
wavy and depends on the temperature
contrast between two air masses. It is
particularly prominent during summer in
N Eurasia.
Arctic haze can appear in distinct ‘bands’
or ‘layers’ at different heights because
warm dirty air is forced upward.
PRECAUTIONARY PRINCIPLE
Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992): Principle 15
Relative importance of
different regions to
annual mean Arctic
concentration of black
carbon (BC),
carbonmonoxide (CO),
sulfate and ozone at the
surface and in the upper
troposphere
“In order to protect the environment, the
precautionary approach shall be widely
applied by States according to their
capabilities.
Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific
certainty shall not be used as a reason
for postponing cost-effective measures to
prevent environmental degradation.”
Shindell et al. (2008)
ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
IN COLD REGIONS
MICROBIAL LIFE IN SNOW AND ICE
1)
How do animals survive in cold regions
2)
How do plants survive in cold regions
3)
How do plants and animals migrate
4)
The record of ecological changes in cold regions
5)
Dynamic interrelationship of changes in local
ecosystems and global change
6)
The Svalbard global seed vault
Physiology
Behaviour
Phenology
13
Lake Vostok
MICROBIAL
LIFE IN
SUBGLACIAL
LAKES
Discovered in 1996 from
decades of seismic studies,
radar surveys and satellite
imaging
"one of the last unexplored
frontiers of our planet"
Lake Vostok is the biological
equivalent of the
Heisenberg uncertainty principle*
(JH Butler)
Very recent research!
*How do you sample something without changing it?
PHENOLOGY
For diverse species (but not for all), climate and extreme weather events
are mechanistically linked to:
• body size
• individual fitness
• population dynamics
META-ANALYSIS STUDY OF PHENOLOGY,
RANGE AND DISTRIBUTION
Parmesan and Yohe (2003: Nature): meta-analysis study
Highly significant, nonrandom patterns of change in accord with observed
climate warming in the 20th century, indicating a very high confidence
(.95%) in a global climate change fingerprint.
Phenoly: study of periodic biological events as influenced by the environment
• bio-indicator for global change and a determinant in climate change impact studies
Last 100-150 years:
ÆButterfly species showed diagnostic patterns of N expansion (new colonizations)
and S contraction (population extinctions).
Sign switching should occur as a response to opposing short term trends in climate
(warming vs cooling):
• Typical pattern: N range shifts during the two 20th century warming periods (1930–
45 and 1975–99), and S shifts during the intervening cooling period (1950–70).
A. Phenological shifts
B. Range boundaries shift
C. Community and/or species distribution & abundance
Climate is an important driving force of natural systems and even though the
driving force might be relatively small, the impact is consistent:
1) Systematically affects century-scale biological trajectories
2) Ultimately affects the persistence of species.
THE FIRST ‘ANTHROPOLOGICAL’ FILM: NANOOK
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN NORTHERN UNGAVA
Some forms of environmental change at Ungava
Write down all the ways in which
traditional knowledge depicted
in this movie is threatened by
environmental change.
Mining, tourism, trade, industrial activity
Climate change
Sea level change
Ecological changes
Pollution, Alcohol
Politics (Ungava now part of Quebec)
Possible effects due to changes:
Fragment 1:
Intro part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wmHvkrhmII
Fragment 2:
First episode:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLERFRQl5EY
Materials
Traditional Knowledge
Ecology
Landscape
Population health
People’s self-esteem and dignity
Socio-economic, cultural
and psychological effects
Drawing of Flaherty filming by an unidentified Inuit
14
Suvinai Ashoona: Arctic Evening
Annie Pootoogook: Watching the Simpsons
Napachie Pootoogook: Alcohol
MIXED CULTURES
Napachie Pootoogook: Stranded on the ice floes
SOURCES OF SOCIAL & ECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND
VULNERABILITY THAT CHARACTERIZE ARCTIC SYSTEMS
Arctic
Sources of
characteristics resilience
Sources of
vulnerability
Opportunities for
adaptation
Social and
institutional
properties
Inadequate educational
infrastructure to plan
for future change
Learning and
innovation fostered
by high cultural
diversity
Sharing of
resources and risks
across kinship
networks
Multiple jobs and
job skills held by an
individual
(‘jack of all trades')
Economic
properties
Flexibility to adjust
to change in mixed
wage-subsistence
economy
Relatively unskilled
labour force
Decoupling of
incentives driving
climatic change from
economic consequences
Substitution of local
resources or
expensive imports
(food, fuel)
Non-diverse extractive
economy: boom-bust
cycles
National wealth
sufficient to invest
in adaptation
Infrastructure and
political barriers to
relocation in response
to climate change
(Chapin et al., 2006).
Annie Pootoogook: Alaskan high kick
15