Dynamic thermal analysis for lunar surface operations

ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
ŽĐƵŵĞŶƚ/͗ϮϴϭϰϭϬ
'<1$0,&7+(50$/$1$/<6,6)25/81$5685)$&(23(5$7,216
&855(1767$7862)7+(7+(5026$3352$&+
3+DJHU5+DEHU'.UDXV61RJLQD$6LHYHUV77DWWXVFK8:DOWHU
7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ,QVWLWXWHRI$VWURQDXWLFV%ROW]PDQQVWUD‰H
*DUFKLQJE0QFKHQ*HUPDQ\
$EVWUDFW
)RU VXUIDFHFUDIW VXFK DV URYHUV WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH SURYLGHV D FKDOOHQJLQJ WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW
(QYLURQPHQWDO WHPSHUDWXUHV EHWZHHQ . DQG . DUH HQFRXQWHUHG 6SDWLDO WHPSHUDWXUH JUDGLHQWV RI
DERXW . ZLWKLQ D IHZ FHQWLPHWHUV DUH SRVVLEOH +HDW WUDQVIHU LV GRPLQDWHG E\ UDGLDWLRQ DQG QR
DWPRVSKHUH GDPSHQV WKH LQFRPLQJ VRODU KHDW IOX[ )XWXUH OXQDU URYHUV ZLOO KDYH WR PRYH WKURXJK WKLV
GHPDQGLQJ HQYLURQPHQW DQG DUH VXEMHFW WR YDU\LQJ KHDW ORDGV 7KLV VFHQDULR LV WKH IRFXV RI WKH 7KHUPDO
0RRQ6LPXODWRU7KHU0R6RIZKLFKZHSUHVHQWWKHFXUUHQWVWDWXVLQWKLVSDSHU
7RGD\¶VWKHUPDOGHVLJQVIRUURYHUVWREHXVHGRQWKH0RRQDUHWUDGLWLRQDOO\EDVHGRQZRUVWFDVHVFHQDULRV
7KHVH PLQLPXPPD[LPXP GHVLJQV DUH HLWKHU KHDY\ RU UHVWULFWHG WR FHUWDLQ VHOHQRJUDSKLFDO UHJLRQV
Š
Š
Š
&RPPHUFLDOWKHUPDOWRROVOLNH(6$7$1706 7KHUPDO'HVNWRS RU7KHUPLFD DUHZHOOVXLWHGWRDFFRXQWIRU
WKH WKHUPDO GHVLJQ TXHVWLRQV DULVLQJ IRU VSDFHFUDIW LQ RUELWV DQG IRU VWDWLF REMHFWV VXFK DV EDVHV RQ WKH
0RRQ 7KH\ DUH QRW VXLWHG WR VLPXODWH WKH G\QDPLF WHPSHUDWXUH EHKDYLRU FDXVHG E\ URYHU PRYHPHQW DQG
ODUJH HQYLURQPHQWDO KHDW IOX[ IURP PXOWLSOH GLUHFWLRQV 7KH ,QVWLWXWH RI $VWURQDXWLFV DW WKH 7HFKQLVFKH
8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQLQYHVWLJDWHVWKHTXHVWLRQLQZKLFKFDVHVDQGRQZKLFKVFDOHVWKHG\QDPLFEHKDYLRURI
WKHUPDOSUREOHPVLQVSDFHDSSOLFDWLRQVDUHQHFHVVDU\LQFRQWUDVWWRWKHZRUVWFDVHDSSURDFK7DUJHWJURXSV
IRUWKLVWRRODUHWKHUPDOHQJLQHHUVV\VWHPVHQJLQHHUVDQGSURMHFWPDQDJHUV,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKH7KHU0R6±
FRPSXWHUVLPXODWLRQWRROLVEHLQJGHYHORSHG
7KH 7KHU0R6 WRRO LV FRPSRVHG RI D WRSRJUDSKLF PRGXOH D UHJROLWK PRGXOH D PRGXOH IRU FUDWHUV DQG
ERXOGHUVDPRGXOHIRURUELWSURSDJDWLRQDQGOXQDURULHQWDWLRQ DUD\ WUDFLQJPRGXOH DJHRPHWU\DVVHPEO\
PRGXOH D WKHUPDO VROYHU PRGXOH DQG D SRVWSURFHVVLQJ PRGXOH $OO EXW WKH UD\ WUDFLQJ PRGXOH DUH
Š
Š
LPSOHPHQWHG LQ 0$7/$% DQG WKH UD\ WUDFLQJ DOJRULWKP XVHV 19,',$ 2SWL; 7KH JOREDO WRSRJUDSK\ LV
EDVHG RQ D SXEOLFO\ DYDLODEOH GDWDVHW PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /$/7 /DVHU $/7LPHWHU LQVWUXPHQW RQERDUG WKH
-DSDQHVH SUREH .DJX\D 7KH UHJROLWK PRGHO LPSURYHV RQ ROGHU PRGHOV E\ LQWHJUDWLQJ WHPSHUDWXUH
GHSHQGHQW YDOXHV DQG D GHSWK GHSHQGHQW UHJROLWK GHQVLW\ SURILOH 7KH RUELW SURSDJDWRU LV EDVHG RQ WKH
9623$ D VHPLDQDO\WLFDO SRZHUVHULHV DSSUR[LPDWLRQ 7KH 7KHU0R6 VLPXODWLRQ DOORZV LPSRUWLQJ DQG
PDQLSXODWLQJJHRPHWULFPRGHOVIURPRWKHUVRIWZDUH7KHUD\WUDFLQJDOJRULWKPGHWHUPLQHVWKHUDGLDWLYHKHDW
WUDQVIHU EHWZHHQ WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH DQG WKH VXUIDFH FUDIW ,W WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH VRODU IOX[HV WKH ,5
UDGLDWLRQ DQG WKHLU GLIIXVLYH UHIOHFWLRQV 7KH UD\ WUDFLQJ IXQFWLRQDOLW\ UXQV RQ D JUDSKLFV SURFHVVRU DQG LV
Š
Š
FDOOHGIURP0$7/$% ,Q0$7/$% WKHWKHUPDOFDOFXODWLRQVDUHSHUIRUPHGWHPSHUDWXUHVDQGWHPSHUDWXUH
GHSHQGHQWPDWHULDO SURSHUWLHVDUHUHFDOFXODWHG7KHRUELW SURSDJDWRUDOWHUVWKH ORFDO 6XQ YHFWRU GXULQJ WKH
VLPXODWLRQ0DQLSXODWLRQRIWKHJHRPHWU\EHWZHHQFDOFXODWLRQVWHSVDOORZVIRUWKHPRYHPHQWRIWKHVXUIDFH
FUDIW7KHWKHUPDOVROYHUDQGWKHSRVWSURFHVVLQJPRGXOHDUHQRWGLVFXVVHGLQWKLVSDSHU
:LWKLQ WKLV SDSHU ZH SUHVHQW UHVXOWV IRU WKH PRGXOHV DQG SUHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV IRU D JHQHULF URYHU LQ D OXQDU
HQYLURQPHQW%HVLGHVZHGLVFXVVWKHJHQHUDORXWOLQHDQGSRLQWRXWWKHQH[WVWHSVLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH
7KHU0R6WRRO
%$&.*5281'
EHKLQGWKHZRUNVXPPDUL]HGLQWKLVSDSHULVWRDQVZHUWKH
TXHVWLRQ LQ ZKLFK FDVHV DQG RQ ZKLFK VFDOHV G\QDPLF
FDOFXODWLRQV RI WKHUPDO SUREOHPV DUH KHOSIXO IRU WKH
WKHUPDOHQJLQHHUV\VWHPVHQJLQHHURUSURMHFWPDQDJHURI
VSDFH PLVVLRQV LQ FRQWUDVW WR WKH FRPPRQ
PLQLPXPPD[LPXP DSSURDFK 7KH ZRUN LV EDVHG RQ WKH
7KHUPDO 0RRQ 6LPXODWRU 7KHU0R6 D WRRO SURJUDPPHG
Š
LQ 0$7/$% ZKLFK LV VSHFLILFDOO\ DGDSWHG WR WKH
GHPDQGLQJ WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQV RQ WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH ,WV
REMHFWLYH LV WR SURYLGH PLVVLRQ SODQQHUV DQG VXUIDFH FUDIW
GHVLJQHUV WKH PHDQV RI IRUHFDVWLQJ WKH WKHUPDO
HQYLURQPHQWDWSRLQWVRILQWHUHVWLQDJLYHQSHULRGGXULQJD
OXQDUGD\
7KH VXUIDFH RI WKH 0RRQ LV D KDUVK WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW
IRU VXUIDFH YHKLFOHV URYHUV DQG DVWURQDXWV *OREDO
WHPSHUDWXUHH[WUHPHVUDQJHEHWZHHQ.DWDVXEVRODU
SRLQW RQ WKH OXQDU HTXDWRU DURXQG OXQDU QRRQ DQG .
DQG EHORZ LQ SHUPDQHQWO\ VKDGRZHG FUDWHUV DW WKH OXQDU
SROHV2QDORFDOVFDOHWKHWHPSHUDWXUHYDULHVHYHQPRUH
GXH WR WKH XQLTXH WKHUPDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH OXQDU UHJROLWK
DQG WKH ODFN RI DQ DWPRVSKHUH 0RUHRYHU FUDWHUV
ERXOGHUV RU PRXQWDLQ UDQJHV FDQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ DOWHU ORFDO
VXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHVZKLFKLQWXUQKDYHDQLPSDFWRQWKH
DFFHVVLELOLW\ DQG VDIHW\ RI UHJLRQV RI H[SORUDWLRQ LQWHUHVW
DV ZHOO DV RQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI VXUIDFH FUDIW 7KH JRDO
ϭ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
67$7(2)7+($57
V\VWHPV WR DGGUHVV KLJK RU IOXFWXDWLQJ LQQHU ORDGV IRU D
URYLQJ YHKLFOH LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK DQ DOWHULQJ
HQYLURQPHQWDOWHPSHUDWXUHSURILOHPDNHVG\QDPLFWKHUPDO
VLPXODWLRQVIRUURYHUVKLJKO\DWWUDFWLYH
&XUUHQW VXUIDFHFUDIW URYHUV DQG VSDFHVXLWV SODQQHG IRU
VXUIDFHRSHUDWLRQVRQWKH0RRQHJWKH(XURSHDQ0RELOH
3D\ORDG 03( HOHPHQW RQ WKH (XURSHDQ 6SDFH $JHQF\
(6$ µ/XQDU /DQGHU¶ // DUH GHVLJQHG WR ZRUVW FDVH
FRQVLGHUDWLRQV ZKLFK DFFRXQW IRU WKH KRWWHVW DQG FROGHVW
FDVHV H[SHFWHG RQ WKH PLVVLRQ 7KH WKHUPDO FRQWURO
PHWKRGVDUHWKXVGHVLJQHGWRPHHWWKRVHVWDWLFFDVHVEXW
DUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\VXLWDEOHIRUWUDQVLHQWHIIHFWV RFFXUULQJ
LQWKHOXQDUVXUIDFHHQYLURQPHQW7KHWKHUPDOHQYLURQPHQW
RQ WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH KDV EHHQ VXEMHFW WR UHVHDUFK IRU
DOPRVW \HDUV ,QIUDUHG PHDVXUHPHQWV >@ DV ZHOO DV
PLFURZDYH PHDVXUHPHQWV >@ OHG WR D PXOWLWXGH RI
PDWKHPDWLFDO PRGHOV RI WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH
WK
HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHILIWLHVDQGVL[WLHVRIWKH FHQWXU\>@
:LWKWKHEHJLQQLQJRIVSDFHIOLJKWDQGWKHILUVWSUREHVVHQW
WRWKH0RRQQHZZD\VRIPHDVXUHPHQWEHFDPHDYDLODEOH
DQG QHZ PRGHOV RI WKH WHPSHUDWXUH GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ WKH
0RRQ DURVH >@ 'XULQJ WKH $SROOR(UD QHZ FKDOOHQJHV
HPHUJHG IRU VFLHQWLVWV DV ZHOO DV HQJLQHHUV ZKR KDG WR
DQDO\]H ZKHWKHU KXPDQV DQG VSDFHVXUIDFH FUDIW ZHUH
DEOHWRVXUYLYHDQGIXQFWLRQLQWKHKDUVKOXQDUHQYLURQPHQW
>@ :LWK WKH GDWD REWDLQHG GXULQJ $SROOR PRUH
VRSKLVWLFDWHG WHPSHUDWXUH PRGHOV ZHUH IHDVLEOH >@
VKRZLQJ IRU H[DPSOH WKDW WKHUPDO DQRPDOLHV FRXOG EH
ORFDOL]HG LQ UHJLRQV ZLWK ERXOGHU ILHOGV RU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ
ORFDO EHGURFN >@ 7ZR GHFDGHV ODWHU DV WKH TXHVWLRQ
HPHUJHGZKHWKHULFHFRXOGHQGXUHLQFUDWHUVRQWKH0RRQ
QHZ VFLHQWLILF PRGHOV IRFXVHG RQ WKH SROHV >@ 7KH
UHQHZHG ODXQFK RI VSDFH SUREHV LQWR RUELWV DURXQG WKH
0RRQ HJ &OHPHQWLQH /XQDU 3URVSHFWRU 60$57DQGWKHLPSURYHPHQWLQFRPSXWHUEDVHG
PRGHOLQJDOVRFUHDWHGGHPDQGIRUQHZDQGPRUHDFFXUDWH
WKHUPDOPRGHOV>@0RVWRIWKHVHPRGHOVIRFXVRQWKH
ODUJH VFDOH WHPSHUDWXUHV RI WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH WKDW DOWHU
VORZO\ RYHU RQH OXQDU GD\ $SDUW IURP WKH FUDWHU PRGHOV
>@ WKH\ GR QRW DFFRXQW IRU ORFDO HIIHFWV DQG QRQH RI
WKHPFRQVLGHUVWUDQVLHQWHIIHFWVIRUPRYLQJVXUIDFHFUDIW
7KH WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW KDV DOVR SURYHQ WR EH D PDMRU
FKDOOHQJH LQ WKH GHVLJQ RI H[WUDYHKLFXODU DFWLYLW\ (9$
VXLWV 'XULQJ WKH ODVW \HDUV RI (9$V VHYHUDO FDVHV RI
WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW UHODWHG GLVFRPIRUW ZHUH UHSRUWHG
>@ 7KHVH UHDFK IURP GLVFRPIRUW GXH WR K\SRWKHUPLD
LQVKDGRZHGDUHDVWRWKHDERUWRIDQ(9$FDXVHGE\YLVRU
IRJJLQJ UHODWHG WR WKHUPDO F\FOLQJ >@ 7KH OLTXLG FRROLQJ
JDUPHQW /&* D SDUW RI WKH VXLWV¶ DFWLYH WKHUPDO FRQWURO
$7&GHGLFDWHGWRWUDQVSRUWLQJKHDWDZD\IURPWKHERG\
LV PDLQO\ FRQWUROOHG PDQXDOO\ E\ WKH DVWURQDXWV 'XULQJ
H[WUDYHKLFXODU DFWLYLWLHV WKH SULPDU\ WDVNV UHTXLUH D ORW RI
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ 7KLV FDQ OHDG WR ODFN RI DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH
DVWURQDXW WRZDUGV WKH DGMXVWPHQW RI WKH (9$ VXLW $7&
7KLVLQWXUQFDQOHDGWRWKHUPDOLPEDODQFHV>@
1RW WR ZDVWH ZDWHU E\ VXEOLPDWLQJ LW LV D UHTXLUHPHQW IRU
IXWXUHOXQDUVXUIDFH(9$ VXLWV>@:LWKWKDWUDGLDWRUV
EHFRPH WKH SULPDU\ ZD\ WR VKHG H[FHVV KHDW 1HZ
FRQFHSWVIRUUDGLDWRUVHPHUJHDVWKHUHWXUQWRWKH0RRQLV
EHLQJFRQVLGHUHG7KHVHFRQFHSWVDUHIRUH[DPSOHGLJLWDO
UDGLDWRUV>@DQGHOHFWURFKURPLFUDGLDWRUV>@7KHXVHRI
UDGLDWRUV LQ WXUQ GHPDQGV D PRUH GHWDLOHG NQRZOHGJH RI
WKH VSDFHVXLW JHRPHWU\ DQG WKHUPDO EHKDYLRU DV ZHOO DV
WKH ORFDO OXQDU HQYLURQPHQW >@ (VSHFLDOO\
HOHFWURFKURPLF UDGLDWRUV VKRZ SURPLVH LQ WKH WKHUPDO
FRQWURO RI IXWXUH VSDFH VXLWV%XW WKLV WHFKQRORJ\ GHPDQG
IDVW FRQWURO DOJRULWKPV WR RSWLPL]H KHDW UHMHFWLRQ LQ
FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK WKH DVWURQDXW¶V SRVWXUH YHORFLW\ DQG
WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW +HUH D VWDWLF PLQLPXPPD[LPXP
DQDO\VLVDQGGLPHQVLRQLQJLVQRWGHHPHGVXIILFLHQW
Š
&XUUHQW WKHUPDO WRROV OLNH 7KHUPDO 'HVNWRS (6$7$1
Š
Š
706 RU 7KHUPLFD DUH ZHOO VXLWHG WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH
WKHUPDOGHVLJQTXHVWLRQVDULVLQJLQRUELWVDURXQGWKH(DUWK
RU RWKHU FHOHVWLDO ERGLHV :KHQ LW FRPHV WR VXUIDFH
RSHUDWLRQV QR IXQFWLRQDOLW\ LV FXUUHQWO\ LPSOHPHQWHG LQ
Š
Š
(6$7$1706U DV ZHOODVLQ7KHUPDO'HVNWRS WRWKH
EHVW RI RXU NQRZOHGJH 6LPSOLILHG VSKHULFDO ERGLHV DUH
Š
DVVXPHG LQ 7KHUPLFD >@ 7KLV ODFN RI GHWDLOHG PRGHOV
VKDOOEHRYHUFRPHZLWKWKH7KHU0R6VLPXODWLRQRIZKLFK
WKHFXUUHQWVWDWXVLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHU
'XULQJ WKH $SROOR PLVVLRQV LW EHFDPH REYLRXV WKDW
WUDQVLHQW HIIHFWV LPSDFW VXUIDFH RSHUDWLRQV 7KH $SROOR
ODQGLQJVWRRNSODFHGXULQJOXQDUPRUQLQJLQRUGHUWRDYRLG
WKH KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV RI OXQDU QRRQ 6WLOO WKH UXEEHU
ZKHHOVRIWKH0RGXODU(TXLSPHQW7UDQVSRUWHU0(7XVHG
RQ $SROOR ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR VXVWDLQ PLQLPDO
WHPSHUDWXUHVDVORZDV.7KHWHPSHUDWXUHRIRQHRI
WKH ZKHHOV GURSSHG EHORZ WKDW WKUHVKROG RQO\ EHFDXVH LW
ZDVVKDGRZHGE\WKHRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHVXUIDFHFUDIW>@
7KH LPSDFW RI WKH WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW RQ HTXLSPHQW
PLJKW KDYH EHHQ DGGUHVVHG GLIIHUHQWO\ LI PRUH GHWDLOHG
WKHUPDOPRGHOVRIWKHOXQDUVXUIDFHKDGEHHQDYDLODEOH
7+(7+(5026722/
7KH 7KHU0R6 WRRO KDV WKH JRDO RI SURYLGLQJ D VLPXODWLRQ
HQYLURQPHQW WKDW HQDEOHV FDOFXODWLRQV RI WHPSHUDWXUHV LQ
DQGRQPRYLQJ VXUIDFHFUDIWRQWKHOXQDUVXUIDFH,W UHVWV
XSRQ WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW D WUDQVLHQW FDOFXODWLRQ RI
WHPSHUDWXUHVEHQHILWVWKHUPDOGHVLJQRIVXUIDFHFUDIWZLWK
ORZ WKHUPDO LQHUWLDVXFK DV H[SORUDWLRQ URYHUV RU VXUIDFH
FUDIW ZLWK KLJK DJLOLW\ DQG QDUURZ VXUYLYDO WHPSHUDWXUH
UDQJHV VXFK DV DVWURQDXWV LQ VSDFHVXLWV %\ SHUIRUPLQJ
GHWDLOHG FDVH VWXG\ VLPXODWLRQV VLPSOLILHG UXOHV RI WKXPE
VKDOO EH GHULYHG IRU WKH GHVLJQ DQG RSHUDWLRQ RI PRYLQJ
VXUIDFHFUDIWRQWKHOXQDUVXUIDFH
7KH WKHUPDO HQYLURQPHQW LV DQ XSWRGDWH LVVXH IRU
VFKHGXOHG URYHU PLVVLRQV WR WKH 0RRQ +LJK VXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUHVFDXVHKLJKKHDWORDGVRQWKHXQGHUFDUULDJH
RIURYHUV>@%RXOGHUVKDGRZVSURYLGHDVLJQLILFDQWFROG
VSRW>@2SWLFDOV\VWHPVHJWHOHVFRSHVKDYHVWULQJHQW
UHTXLUHPHQWV RQ WKHUPDO VWDELOLW\ >@ 3RZHU JHQHUDWLQJ
V\VWHPV VXFK DV UDGLRLVRWRSH WKHUPRHOHFWULF JHQHUDWRU
57*V RU VWHUOLQJ UDGLRLVRWRSH JHQHUDWRUV 65*V RIWHQ
XVHG IRU SUREHV DQG URYHUV LQ UHJLRQV ZKHUH WKH 6XQ
FDQQRW SURYLGH VXIILFLHQW HQHUJ\ IRUP ORFDO KHDW VRXUFHV
RQ WKH VXUIDFHFUDIW EHVLGHV SURGXFLQJ HOHFWULFDO HQHUJ\
>@ 7KH GLPHQVLRQLQJ DQG DELOLW\ RI WKHUPDO FRQWURO
Š
7KH 7KHU0R6 WRRO LV LPSOHPHQWHG LQ 0$7/$% ZLWK DQ
Š
H[WHQVLRQ LQ 19,',$ 2SWL; ,Q LWV FXUUHQW VWDWXV WKH
7KHU0R6WRROFRQVLVWVRIVHYHUDOVXEPRGXOHVZKLFKDUHD
*OREDO 7RSRJUDSKLF 0RGXOH D 5HJROLWK /D\HU 0RGXOH D
&UDWHU %RXOGHU 0RGXOH DQ 2UELW 3URSDJDWRU /XQDU
2ULHQWDWLRQ 0RGXOH D 5D\ 7UDFLQJ 0RGXOH DQG D
*HRPHWU\ 3UHSURFHVVLQJ 0RGXOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKHUH DUH
$V\QRGLFOXQDUGD\FDOOHGOXQDWLRQODVWV(DUWKGD\V
/XQDUPRUQLQJRUQRRQWKXVUHIHUVWRDWLPHIUDPHRIVHYHUDO
(DUWKGD\V
Ϯ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
WKHVROYHUDQGSRVWSURFHVVLQJPRGXOHVZKLFKZLOOQRWEH
GLVFXVVHGLQWKLVSDSHU
7KH*OREDO7RSRJUDSKLF0RGXOH
7KH JOREDO WRSRJUDSKLF PRGHO IRU WKH 7KHU0R6 WRRO LV
EDVHG RQ D SXEOLFO\ DYDLODEOH GDWDVHW PHDVXUHG E\ WKH
/$/7/DVHU$/7LPHWHULQVWUXPHQWRQERDUGWKH-DSDQHVH
SUREH .DJX\D 2Q D ODUJH VFDOH DQG DW WKH SROHV WKH
WRSRORJLF IHDWXUHV DUH ZHOO UHSUHVHQWHG GXH WR D KLJK
GHQVLW\RIGDWDSRLQWV)HDWXUHVLQWKHUDQJHRIWKHVSDWLDO
UHVROXWLRQRIWKHLQVWUXPHQWNPDWWKH0RRQHTXDWRU
DSSHDU WR KDYH VPRRWKHU VORSHV WKDQ LQ UHDOLW\ )HDWXUHV
ZLWK D VL]H NP VXFK DV VPDOO FUDWHUV ERXOGHUV DQG
VWHHS FOLIIV DV ZHOO DV WKH +DGOH\ 5LOOH FRXOG QRW EH
PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /$/7 LQVWUXPHQW >@ 7KLV ODFN RI
LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH VPDOO IHDWXUH UDQJH OHG WR WKH
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH &UDWHU %RXOGHU 0RGXOH VHH
VHFWLRQ
)LJXUH8QZUDSSHGLOOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHSDQRUDPDRIWKH
$SROORODQGLQJVLWHPD[LPXPGLVWDQFH
NPUORNLVWKHGLVWDQFHIURPWKHFHQWHUDQG
SKLORNUHSUHVHQWVWKHFLUFXPIHUHQFH
5HJROLWK/D\HU0RGXOH
$ FHQWUDO SDUW RI DQ\ WKHUPDO VLPXODWLRQ IRU WKH OXQDU
VXUIDFH LV D PRGHO RI WKH OXQDU UHJROLWK ZLWK LWV XQLTXH
WKHUPDOSURSHUWLHV$PXOWLWXGHRIPRGHOVIRUOXQDUUHJROLWK
KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG LQ WKH SDVW >@ DV DOUHDG\
GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ 0RVW RI WKHVH PRGHOV IRFXV RQ D
IODW SODQH DQG DYHUDJH WHPSHUDWXUHV RQ WKH 0RRQ 7KH\
DJUHHLQWKDWWKHWHPSHUDWXUHYDULDWLRQRQWKH0RRQPDLQO\
GHSHQGVRQWKHWKHUPDOLQHUWLDߛ>-āPā.āV@RIWKHOXQDU
UHJROLWK
7KH FXUUHQW LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ IRU WKH JOREDO WRSRJUDSK\ LQ
7KHU0R6 DOORZV WR GHFLGH EHWZHHQ IODW VTXDUH
UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ IRU VPDOO SDWFKHV NP DV ZHOO DV
FRQYH[ FLUFXODU HOHPHQWV IRU ODUJHU UHJLRQV $GGLWLRQDO
YLHZV DUH SRVVLEOH VXFK DV D SDQRUDPLF YLHZ IURP D
FHUWDLQVSRW,QWKHIROORZLQJILJXUHVWKH$SROORODQGLQJ
VLWH ZDV FKRVHQ DV H[DPSOH ,Q )LJXUH D UHFWDQJXODU
SDWFKLVGHSLFWHGZLWKDQHGJHOHQJWKRINP,Q)LJXUH
D FLUFXODU WRSRJUDSKLF PDS RI WKH VDPH UHJLRQ LV VKRZQ
+HUHWKHGLDPHWHURIWKHVKRZQSDWFKLVNP,Q)LJXUH
D SDQRUDPD RI WKHVDPH SRVLWLRQLVVKRZQ 7KH GHSWK
RIWKHSDQRUDPDLVNP
ଵൗ
ଶ
ൌ ሺ݇ ή ߩ ή ܿሻ
ZKHUH ݇ LV WKH WKHUPDO FRQGXFWLYLW\ >:āP ā. @ ߩ LV WKH
GHQVLW\ >NJāP @ DQG ܿ LV WKH VSHFLILF KHDW >-āNJ ā. @ RI
OXQDUUHJROLWK7KHWHPSHUDWXUHDOVRGHSHQGVRQWKHOXQDU
LQIUDUHG HPLVVLYLW\ ߝ >@ LWV VRODU DEVRUSWLYLW\ ߙ >@ WKH
DOEHGR‫@>ܣ‬RUUHIOHFWLYLW\UHVSHFWLYHO\WKHVRODUFRQVWDQW6
>:āP @>@DQGLWVDQJOHRILQFLGHQWVȕ>ƒ@
7KH ODUJH QXPEHU RI PRGHOVZDV UHYLHZHG DQG FOXVWHUHG
LQWR WKUHH FODVVHV WZR OD\HU PRGHOV SDUWLFXODWH PRGHOV
DQGILQLWHHOHPHQWPRGHOV2IHDFKFODVVRQHPRGHOZDV
Š
UHEXLOWLQ0$7/$% ,QWKHILUVWFODVVRIPRGHOVWKHFRQGXFWLYLW\DQGWKHVSHFLILF
KHDW RI WKH UHJROLWK YDU\ ZLWK WHPSHUDWXUH WKH GHQVLW\ LV
UHJDUGHGDVEHLQJFRQVWDQW7KHVXUIDFHLVFRQVLGHUHGWR
EHPDGHRIWZROD\HUV7KH XSSHUOD\HUZLWKRQO\VHYHUDO
PLOOLPHWHUV RI WKLFNQHVV ZDV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH PDGH RI
ILQHU PDWHULDO 7KH OD\HU XQGHUQHDWK PRGHOHG RI FRDUVHU
EXW GHQVHU PDWHULDO 2QHRI WKHVHPRGHOV ZDV SUHVHQWHG
E\&UHPHUVHWDO>@,WGLGQRWDFFRXQWIRUWKHLQWHUQDO
KHDWIOX[GLIIHUHQWUHJROLWKGHQVLWLHVDQGXVHGDVRODUKHDW
IOX[ WKDW ZDV WRR ORZ 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKDW PRGHO ZDV WR
DQDO\]H WKH SURSHUWLHV RI VDPSOHV IURP WKH $SROOR
PLVVLRQV
)LJXUH7RSRJUDSKLFPDSRIWKH$SROORODQGLQJVLWH
EDVHGRQ.DJX\DGDWDNP5HJLRQZLWK
KLJKHUUHVROXWLRQLQFHQWHU
$QDOWHUQDWLYHDSSURDFKDUHSDUWLFXODWHPRGHOVWRFRPSXWH
WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH >@ :LQWHU HW DO >@
SURSRVHG WR VLPXODWH WKH JUDLQ\ FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKH OXQDU
UHJROLWKDVDQDUUD\RIFXEHVLQVHYHUDOOD\HUV7KHFXEHV
ZHUH RQO\ FRQQHFWHG WKURXJK WKH FRQQHFWLQJ FRUQHUV
UHVXOWLQJLQDUDGLDWLRQGRPLQDWHGKHDWWUDQVIHUWKURXJKWKH
UHJROLWK
7KH WKLUG FODVV RI PRGHOV H[DPLQH WKH WHPSHUDWXUH
GLVWULEXWLRQ RQ D ORFDO VFDOH >@ ,Q WKH WRSRJUDSKLF
WKHUPDO PRGHO SXEOLVKHG E\ 6DOYDLO DQG )DQDOH >@ D
FUDWHU ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR ILQLWH HOHPHQWV (DFK HOHPHQW
UHFHLYHG GLUHFW VRODU UDGLDWLRQ UHIOHFWHG UDGLDWLRQ IURP
RWKHU FUDWHU HOHPHQWV DQG HPLWWHG UDGLDWLRQ LQWR LWV
HQYLURQPHQW
)LJXUH7RSRJUDSKLFPDSRIWKH$SROORODQGLQJVLWH
GLDPHWHUNP
ϯ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
)LJXUH&RPSDULVRQRIOXQDUHTXDWRULDOWHPSHUDWXUHV
DFFRUGLQJWR&UHPHUVIXOOOLQH>@DQG
:LQWHU>@GDVKHGOLQHUHODWLYHWRRQHOXQDU
GD\ OXQDWLRQ /7KHGHSWKZLWKLQWKH
UHJROLWKOD\HULVJLYHQLQPLOOLPHWHU
)LJXUH7HPSHUDWXUHFRPSXWHGZLWKWKH7KHU0R6
UHJROLWKOD\HUPRGHOIRUDPðIDFHDWWKHOXQDU
HTXDWRUIRURQHOXQDUGD\DWGLIIHUHQWGHSWK
,Q)LJXUHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHUHSURGXFHG0$7/$%PRGHOV
RI &UHPHUV HW DO IXOO OLQHV DQG :LQWHU HW DO GDVKHG
OLQHVDUHFRPSDUHG
7KH OXQDU VXUIDFH LV FRYHUHG ZLWK D PXOWLWXGH RI FUDWHUV
FUHDWHGE\LPSDFWLQJERGLHV7KHFUDWHUSURILOHYDULHVIURP
VLPSOH ERZO VKDSHG FUDWHUV WR FRPSOH[ FUDWHUV ZLWK IODW
IORRUVDQGFHQWUDOSHDNVRUULQJVWUXFWXUHV>@7KHFUDWHU
HMHFWD ZKLFK DUH H[FDYDWHG GXULQJ WKH FUDWHULQJ SURFHVV
FDQ IRUP VHFRQGDU\ FUDWHUV DURXQG WKH SULPDU\ RQHV
>@)RUWKH7KHU0R6FUDWHUPRGHORQO\VPDOOSULPDU\
FUDWHUVZLWKDGLDPHWHUXSWRNPDUHFRQVLGHUHG/DUJHU
RQHVDUHSDUWRIWKHWRSRJUDSKLFPDS
&UDWHUDQG%RXOGHU0RGXOH
7KH 7KHU0R6 UHJROLWK OD\HU PRGHO LV EDVHG RQ WKH ZRUN
SHUIRUPHGLQ&UHPHUVHWDO>@,QFRQWUDVWWR&UHPHUVHW
DO D GHSWK GHSHQGHQW UHJROLWK GHQVLW\ DQG D KHDW IOX[
IURPWKHLQWHULRURIWKH0RRQZDVLPSOHPHQWHG>@)LJXUH
VKRZVWKHGHQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHLQWHUYDORIPWR
P RI GHSWK IRU VORSH DQJOHV RI ƒ IXOO OLQH DQG ƒ
GDVKHG OLQH 7KH UHJROLWK OD\HU FRQVLVWV RI DQ DUELWUDU\
QXPEHU RI KHDW QRGHV EHWZHHQ DQG P RI GHSWK )RU
HDFKOD\HUWKHGHQVLW\KHDWFDSDFLW\WKHUPDOFRQGXFWLYLW\
DQGWKHFRQQHFWLQJLQWHUIDFHVDUHFDOFXODWHG
)LJXUH6LPSOHFUDWHUVFKHPDWLFZLWKORFDOFRRUGLQDWH
V\VWHP>@
7KH VPDOO FUDWHU PRUSKRORJ\ DQG QRPHQFODWXUH LV
GHVFULEHG LQ )LJXUH DQG FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG ZLWK WKH
IROORZLQJHTXDWLRQV>@
)LJXUH'HQVLW\GLVWULEXWLRQEHWZHHQDQGPGHSWKIRU
VORSHDQJOHVRIƒDQGƒ
݀௖ ൌ ͲǤͳͻ͸ ή ‫ܦ‬ଵǤ଴ଵ
݄௥ ൌ ͲǤͲ͵͸ ή ‫ܦ‬ଵǤ଴ଵସ
‫ݓ‬௥ ൌ ͲǤʹͷ͹ ή ‫ܦ‬ଵǤ଴ଵଵ
7KH\ LQFOXGH WKH FUDWHU GLDPHWHU ‫> ܦ‬NP@ WKH FUDWHU GHSWK
݀௖ >NP@WKHULPKHLJKW݄௥ >NP@DQGWKHULPZLGWKRUVORSH
OHQJWK‫ݓ‬௥ >NP@7KHSDUDEROLFVKDSHRIWKHFUDWHUZDOODQG
WKH FUDWHU VORSH >@ LV JLYHQ E\ WKH UHVSHFWLYH ]
FRRUGLQDWHLQWKHFUDWHUFRRUGLQDWHV\VWHPVHH>@
7R FDOFXODWH WKH WHPSHUDWXUH RI HDFK GHSWK QRGH
LQFRPLQJ DQG RXWJRLQJ KHDW IOX[HV DUH FRPSXWHG 7KHVH
KHDWIOX[HVGHSHQGRQORFDOODWLWXGHDQGWLPHRIOXQDUGD\
DV ZHOO DV RQ WKH VXUIDFH HOHPHQW WHPSHUDWXUH RI WKH
SUHFXUVRU\ WLPH VWHS ,Q )LJXUH WKH WHPSHUDWXUH
GHYHORSPHQW LVVKRZQ IRU D FDVH ZLWK GHSWK QRGHV DW
WKHOXQDUHTXDWRU
‫ݖ‬௪௔௟௟ ൌ ͲǤ͹ͺͶ ή ‫ି ܦ‬଴Ǥଽଽ ή ‫ ݕ‬ଶ
‫ݖ‬௦௟௢௣௘ ൌ െͲǤͷͶͷ ή ‫ିܦ‬ଵǤ଴଼ ή ‫ ݕ‬ଶ
7KHUHODWLYHFUDWHUIUHTXHQF\SHUDUHDWKHFUDWHUGHQVLW\
GHSHQGVRQ WKH DJH RI WKH OXQDU UHJLRQ >@ 7KHDQFLHQW
KLJKODQGV RQ WKH 0RRQ KDYH D KLJK FUDWHU GHQVLW\ RI
ā >NP @RIFUDWHUVZLWKGLDPHWHU!NPDULWKPHWLF
ϰ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
DYHUDJH >@ 7KH OXQDU PDUH UHJLRQV DUH \RXQJHU DQG
WKXV VKRZ D VPDOOHU FUDWHU GHQVLW\ WKDW UDQJHV IURP RQO\
ā WRā >NP @IRUFUDWHUVZLWKDGLDPHWHURI!
NP>@
'XH WR WKH H[FDYDWLRQ DQG HMHFWLRQ SURFHVV GXULQJ WKH
FUDWHUIRUPDWLRQRIWKHFUDWHUPDVVGLVSHUVHVDURXQG
WKHFUDWHUDVERXOGHUV>@7KHUHPDLQLQJPDWHULDOIRUPV
DJUDQXODUPDWHULDO7KHPD[LPXPERXOGHUGLDPHWHU‫ܤ‬௠௔௫ >NP@GHSHQGVRQFUDWHUVL]HDQGLVJLYHQE\>@
‫ܤ‬௠௔௫ ൌ ͲǤͳ ή ‫ ܭ‬ή ‫ܦ‬
ଶൗ
ଷ
%DVHG RQ WKH GLIIHUHQW LPSDFW YHORFLWLHV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ
IDFWRU‫ ܭ‬DQG WKHUHIRUHWKH ERXOGHUVL]H YDULHV IRU SULPDU\
‫ ܭ‬XVHG IRU WKLV ERXOGHU PRGHO DQG VHFRQGDU\
FUDWHUV ‫ @> ܭ‬7KH EHGURFN PDWHULDO KDV QR
LQIOXHQFHRQWKHPD[LPXPERXOGHUVL]H‫ܤ‬௠௔௫ >@EXW
RQERXOGHUGLVWULEXWLRQDURXQGWKHOXQDUPDUHDQGKLJKODQG
FUDWHUV,QKLJKODQGUHJLRQVRIWKHERXOGHUVOLHZLWKLQ
WKH FUDWHU ,Q WKH PDUH UHJLRQV RQO\ OLH LQVLGH WKH
FUDWHU ULP >@ ,Q ERWK FDVHV PRVW RI WKH ERXOGHUV DUH
ZLWKLQ DQ DUHD XS WR FUDWHU UDGLL DZD\ IURP WKH FUDWHU
FHQWHU >@ %RXOGHUV SHQHWUDWH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ WR D GHSWK
RIRIWKHLUGLDPHWHULQWRWKHUHJROLWK>@7KHFXUUHQW
7KHU0R6 ERXOGHU DQG FUDWHU PRGHO GRHV QRW DFFRXQW IRU
ERXOGHUV LQVLGH FUDWHUV WKH SHQHWUDWLRQ GHSWK DQG WKH
FRYHUDJHZLWKOXQDUUHJROLWKLVQHJOHFWHG
)LJXUH/XQDUVXUIDFH[NPðZLWKRYHUODSSLQJ
FUDWHUVRIGLDPHWHUVNP
)LJXUH%RXOGHUGLVWULEXWLRQDURXQGDFUDWHU
2UELW3URSDJDWRU/XQDU2ULHQWDWLRQ
0RGXOH
,QRUGHUWRFDOFXODWHWKHORFDOWHPSHUDWXUHVLWLVFUXFLDOWR
GHWHUPLQHWKHLQFRPLQJKHDWIOX[HV7KXVLWLVLPSRUWDQWWR
SUHGLFW D]LPXWK DQG HOHYDWLRQ RI WKH 6XQ WKURXJKRXW D
OXQDUGD\7KHREVHUYHU¶VSRVLWLRQRQWKHOXQDUVXUIDFHDV
ZHOODVWKHORFDOVORSHKDVWREHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW:LWK
UHJDUG WR ODXQFK ZLQGRZV DQG PLVVLRQV LQ WKH IXWXUH WKH
FHOHVWLDO GDWHV KDYH WR EH LQWHJUDWHG 7KHUHIRUH LW ZDV
QHFHVVDU\ WR LPSOHPHQW D FRPELQDWLRQ RI DQ RUELW
SURSDJDWRUDQGWKHSRVVLELOLW\WRGHWHUPLQHWKHRULHQWDWLRQ
RIWKH0RRQLQVSDFH
>NP@
>NP@
>NP@
7KH OXQDU RUELW LV TXLWH DV\PPHWULF DQG VR LWV RUELWDO
SDUDPHWHUV ± LQFOLQDWLRQ VHPLPDMRU D[LV HFFHQWULFLW\
DUJXPHQWRISHULJHHDQGULJKWDVFHQVLRQRIWKHDVFHQGLQJ
QRGH±DUHQRWDWDOOFRQVWDQWEXWDUHVXEMHFWWRDQXPEHU
RI SHUWXUEDWLRQV 3DUWLFXODUO\ WKH 6XQ¶V JUDYLWDWLRQDO
LQIOXHQFH ZKLFK LV VOLJKWO\ PRUH WKDQ WZLFH WKH (DUWK¶V
JUDYLWDWLRQDOLQIOXHQFHLVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHVHHIIHFWV>@
7KXVSHUWXUELQJDFFHOHUDWLRQDFWLQJRQWKH0RRQGLUHFWHG
WRZDUGV WKH 6XQ DW DOO WLPHV $V WKH 0RRQ LV LQ
V\QFKURQRXV URWDWLRQ ZLWK (DUWK LW QHDUO\ DOZD\V NHHSV
WKHVDPHVLGHIDFHGWRZDUGVWKH(DUWKEXWEHFDXVHRIWKH
RSWLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO OLEUDWLRQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RI WKH
OXQDU VXUIDFH FDQ EH REVHUYHG IURP (DUWK 7KH PRGHO
LPSOHPHQWHG LQ 7KHU0R6 LV EDVHG RQ WKH 9623$
>@ SODQHWDU\ PRGHO ZKLFK LV XVHG WR FDOFXODWH WKH
KHOLRFHQWULF SRVLWLRQ RI WKH (DUWK¶V FHQWHU DQG WKH
JHRFHQWULF SRVLWLRQ RI WKH OXQDU FHQWHU DW DQ\ JLYHQ WLPH
7KLV PRGHO LV FRPSOHPHQWHG E\ WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH
RSWLFDO OLEUDWLRQ DQJOH >@ DQG DQ DOJRULWKP WR GHWHUPLQH
WKHYLVLELOLW\RIWKH6XQLQSHUFHQW
>P@
>P@
>P@
)LJXUH0RGHOIRUDOXQDUFUDWHUDQGDQDUELWUDU\
ERXOGHURIPGLDPHWHU
%DVHGRQWKHVHHTXDWLRQVDQGDVVXPSWLRQVWKH7KHU0R6
&UDWHU DQG %RXOGHU PRGHO FUHDWHV DUELWUDU\ ODQGVFDSHV
7KHVH ODQGVFDSHV DUH WKHQ FRPELQHG ZLWK WKH JOREDO
WRSRJUDSKLF ODQGVFDSH GLVFXVVHG LQ VHFWLRQ )LJXUH VKRZVDSULPDU\FUDWHUDQGDQDUELWUDU\VKDSHGERXOGHUDV
FUHDWHGE\WKH7KHU0R6&UDWHU%RXOGHU0RGHO)LJXUH
VKRZVWKHUDQGRPDUUDQJHPHQWRIFUDWHUVLQWKHGLDPHWHU
UDQJH RI ‫ ” ܦ‬NP RQ D VHFWLRQ RI î NP WDNLQJ
FUDWHU RYHUODSSLQJ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ %RXOGHUV DUH
GLVWULEXWHG RXWVLGH WKH FUDWHU XS WR D GLVWDQFH RI FUDWHU
UDGLL VHH )LJXUH 7KH ERXOGHU VL]H YDULHV XS WR ‫ܤ‬௠௔௫
DQG WKH EXON YROXPH HTXDWHV WR RI WKH FDOFXODWHG
LQWHULRUFUDWHUYROXPH
6RPHVLPSOLILFDWLRQVZHUHPDGHLQWKH7KHU0R6WRRO7KH
SK\VLFDO OLEUDWLRQ LV QHJOHFWHG GXH WR WKH YHU\ VPDOO
DPSOLWXGH>@DQGWKH0RRQLVDSSUR[LPDWHGE\DVSKHUH
ZLWKDFRQVWDQWUDGLXVDQGQRWPRGHOHGDVWKHHOOLSVRLGLW
WUXO\LV
ϱ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
7KH RUELW SURSDJDWLRQ DQG OXQDU RULHQWDWLRQ VLPXODWLRQ
FDOFXODWHV WKH D]LPXWK DQG HOHYDWLRQ RI WKH 6XQ¶V FHQWHU
LWV WRSPRVW DQG ORZHUPRVW SRLQW WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH
YLVLEOH VRODU GLVF DQG WKH D]LPXWK DQG HOHYDWLRQ RI WKH
(DUWK¶VFHQWHU
EDFNJURXQG IRU UD\ WUDFLQJ FRPSXWDWLRQV RQ WKH JUDSKLFV
SURFHVVLQJXQLW*38
,QWKHIRUZDUGUD\WUDFLQJDSSURDFKXVHGIRU7KHU0R6WKH
UD\V DUH JHQHUDWHG LQ WKH UDGLDWLRQ VRXUFHV DQG
SURSDJDWHG WKURXJK D ' VFHQH %\ GHWHUPLQLQJ DQG
SURFHVVLQJ DOO LQWHUVHFWLRQV RI WKHVH UD\V ZLWK VFHQH
REMHFWV LW LV SRVVLEOH WR HVWLPDWH WKH LQFRPLQJ DQG
RXWJRLQJ KHDW IOX[HV IRU HDFK VXUIDFH HOHPHQW 7KH
LPSOHPHQWHG DOJRULWKP GLVWLQJXLVKHV EHWZHHQ GLUHFW 6XQ
UD\VFDUU\LQJWKHPRVWSDUWRIWKHHQHUJ\DQGWKHLQIUDUHG
,5 UD\V UDGLDWHG E\ DOO VXUIDFHV GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHLU
WHPSHUDWXUH
7KHFDOFXODWLRQRIWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKH0RRQZLWKUHVSHFWWR
WKH 6XQ SURGXFHG D PD[LPXP HUURU RI NP WRWDO
FRPSDUHGWRGDWDFDOFXODWHGZLWKRQOLQHWRROVIURPWKH-HW
3URSXOVLRQ /DERUDWRU\ -3/ DQG WKH ,QVWLWXW GH
0pFKDQLTXH &pOHVWH HW GH &DOFXO GHV eSKHPHULGHV
,0&&(
7KHD]LPXWKDQGHOHYDWLRQUHVXOWVZHUHFRPSDUHGWRGDWD
Š
REWDLQHG ZLWK WKH 6DWHOOLWH 7RRO .LW 67. 7KH
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHFDOFXODWHGDQGWKH67.GDWDDUH
VPDOOHU WKDQ ƒ LQ D]LPXWK DQG ƒ LQ HOHYDWLRQ
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHGHYLDWLRQVLQWKHDQJOHRILQFLGHQFHRI
WKH VRODU UD\V 'XULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKH \HDU WKH
PD[LPXP GHYLDWLRQ LV DERXW ƒ )LJXUH VKRZV
H[HPSODU\ 6XQ D]LPXWK DQG HOHYDWLRQ IRU DQ REVHUYHU DW
WKH$SROORODQGLQJVLWHWKURXJKRXW-DQXDU\
Š
)LJXUH VKRZV WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ 0$7/$% DQG
Š
Š
19,',$ 2SWL; ,QLWLDOL]HG IURP WKH 0$7/$% VFULSW WKH
' PRGHOV RI WKH 0RRQ VFHQH DQG D VXUIDFH FUDIW DUH
Š
GLVFUHWL]HGLQ2SWL; DVWULDQJOHPHVKHV7KHPHVKHVDUH
UHSUHVHQWHG DV VHWV RI WULDQJXODU IDFHV DQG YHUWLFHV
$VVLJQHG WR HDFK VXUIDFH IDFH DUH RSWLFDO PDWHULDO
SURSHUWLHV VXFKDV UHIOHFWLYLW\ HPLVVLYLW\ DQGDEVRUSWLYLW\
Š
,Q DGGLWLRQ 0$7/$% SURYLGHV D WHPSHUDWXUH IRU HDFK
VXUIDFHIDFH
7KH5D\7UDFLQJ0RGXOHFRPSXWHVWKHKHDWIOX[HVRIWKH
HPLWWHGDEVRUEHG UDGLDWLRQ IRU DOO JHRPHWU\ IDFHV E\
DFFXPXODWLQJ WKH KHDW RI WKH LQFRPLQJ UD\V DQG
VXEWUDFWLQJ WKH KHDW IOX[HV RI WKH HPLWWHG LQIUDUHG
UDGLDWLRQ
)LJXUH'HYLDWLRQVEHWZHHQWKH7KHU0R6RUELW
SURSDJDWLRQDQGOXQDURULHQWDWLRQPRGHOIURP
YDOXHVFDOFXODWHGE\67.IRUWKH$SROOR
ODQGLQJVLWH
)LJXUH3URFHVVHVFDOFXODWLRQVDQGLQWHUDFWLRQ
Š
SHUIRUPHGLQDQGEHWZHHQ19,',$2SWL; DQG
Š
0$7/$% ,W LV DVVXPHG WKDW DOO VRODU UD\V DUH SDUDOOHO DQG FDUU\
HTXDO KHDW ORDGV $ IL[HG YDOXH RI >:āP @ IRU WKH
VRODU KHDW IOX[ ZDV XVHG ,5 UD\V DUH VDPSOHG UDQGRPO\
RYHUDXQLWKHPLVSKHUHLQDFRVLQHZHLJKWHGIDVKLRQ>@
7KHHPLWWHGSRZHUFDUULHGE\LQIUDUHGUD\VLVFRPSXWHGIRU
HYHU\IDFHRIWKHPHVKXVLQJWKH6WHIDQ%ROW]PDQQODZ
)LJXUH$]LPXWKDQG(OHYDWLRQRIWKH6XQ¶VGLVFFHQWHU
DWWKH$SROORODQGLQJVLWHIRU-DQXDU\
5D\7UDFLQJ0RGXOH
ൌ ߝ ൉ ߪ ൉ ‫ ܣ‬൉ ܶସ
,Q RUGHU WR FDOFXODWH WKH KHDW WUDQVIHUUHG E\ UDGLDWLRQ
EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW VXUIDFH HOHPHQWV LQ WKH 7KHU0R6
VLPXODWLRQ LW LV QRW HQRXJK WR FDOFXODWH RQO\ WKH LQFRPLQJ
KHDW IOX[ IURP WKH 6XQ 7KLV KHDW H[FKDQJH EHWZHHQ
VXUIDFH HOHPHQWV LV HVSHFLDOO\ LPSRUWDQW IRU ORFDO VXUIDFH
IHDWXUHV VXFK DV ERXOGHUV DQG FUDWHUV DV ZHOO DV IRU
VXUIDFHFUDIW SODFHG ZLWKLQ D OXQDU VFHQH 6LPSOH YLHZ
IDFWRU GHWHUPLQDWLRQ LV QRW HQRXJK LI WKH VXUIDFH FUDIW LV
VXSSRVHG WR EH PRYLQJ 5D\ WUDFLQJ DOORZV WKH
GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH KHDW WKDW LV H[FKDQJHG E\
DSSUR[LPDWLQJ WKH UDGLDWHG HQHUJ\ EXQGOHV DV GLVFUHWH
UD\V7KH7KHU0R65D\7UDFLQJ0RGXOHLVLPSOHPHQWHGLQ
WKH 19,',$ 2SWL;Š IUDPHZRUN ZKLFK SURYLGHV WKH
ZLWKߝEHLQJWKHHPLVVLYLW\>@‫ܣ‬WKHVXUIDFH¶VDUHD>Pð@ܶ
WKHVXUIDFH¶VWHPSHUDWXUH>.@DQGߪWKH6WHIDQ%ROW]PDQQ
í
FRQVWDQWHTXDOWRā >:āP ā. @
7KH REMHFWVDUHFRQVLGHUHGWR KDYH /DPEHUWLDQ VXUIDFHV
DVWKH\UHIOHFWHTXDOO\DQGXQLIRUPO\LQDOOGLUHFWLRQV(YHU\
UD\ KLWWLQJ WKH VXUIDFH LV SDUWO\ DEVRUEHG DQG SDUWO\
UHIOHFWHGGLIIXVHO\LQUDQGRPGLUHFWLRQV7KHLQFLGHQWSRLQW
RI D UD\ VHUYHV DV WKH RULJLQ IRU UHIOHFWHG UD\V 7KLV
SURFHVV FRQWLQXHV XQWLO WKH LQFRPLQJ UD\ KDV HLWKHU
UHDFKHG LWVPD[LPXP QXPEHU RI UHIOHFWLRQV RULV GLUHFWHG
WRZDUGV VSDFH 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VXUIDFH WKDW LV KLW WKH
ϲ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
SRZHUFDUULHGE\DUD\GLPLQLVKHVXQWLODFHUWDLQWKUHVKROG
LV UHDFKHG DQG WKH UD\ SURJUHVVLRQ LV WHUPLQDWHG E\ WKH
DOJRULWKP,QWKHFXUUHQWVLPXODWLRQDVRODUDOEHGRRI
LV XVHG IRU DOO 0RRQ VXUIDFH IDFHV DV VXJJHVWHG LQ >@
7KH,5HPLVVLYLW\RI WKH0RRQVXUIDFHLVVHWWRDVD
IL[HGYDOXHIRUWKHWHPSHUDWXUHUDQJHIURP.WR.
>@
WKH EDVLF DUFKLWHFWXUH RI WKH *HRPHWU\ 3UHSURFHVVLQJ
PRGXOHZLWKWKHFRPELQHGPDWUL[DVPDLQRXWSXW
$V D UHVXOW RI WKH LQWHUDFWLYH QDWXUH RI PRGHO DVVHPEO\
DQGSURSHUW\DOORFDWLRQD*8,*UDSKLFDO8VHU,QWHUIDFH
VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH KDV EHHQ VHOHFWHG DV PHWKRG RI
FKRLFH 7KH *8, FRQVLVWV RI D WDEEHG VWUXFWXUH WKDW
FRPSULVHV RQH WDE IRU HDFK RI WKH WKUHH PDLQ WDVNV
,PSRUW$VVHPEO\DQG([SRUW
7KH LPSOHPHQWHG 5D\ 7UDFLQJ 0RGXOH ZDV WHVWHG RQ
VHYHUDO JHRPHWULHV LQFOXGLQJ GLIIHUHQW UHILQHPHQWV RI DQ
$SROOR ODQGLQJ VLWH VFHQH DV ZHOO DV DUWLILFLDO
JHRPHWULHVZLWKFUDWHUVDQGERXOGHUV7KHWLPHQHHGHGIRU
SURFHVVLQJ VRODU UD\V LV PRVWO\ LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH
JHRPHWU\VL]HDQGLQFUHDVHVZLWKWKHQXPEHURIUD\V7KH
PD[LPXP WHVW WLPH RI VHFRQGV ZDV UHDFKHG IRU
IDFHVLQWKH$SROORVFHQHIRUVRODUUD\V,QWKH
VDPH VFHQH LW WRRN VHFRQGV WR FRPSXWH WKH ,5 UD\V
ZLWKUD\VSHUIDFH)LJXUHVKRZVWKHUHVXOWRIDUD\
WUDFLQJ SHUIRUPHG RQ D UDQGRP FUDWHU VFHQH ZLWK VXUIDFHHOHPHQWVDQGD6XQHOHYDWLRQRIƒ7KLVLPDJH
Š
ZDVUHQGHUHGLQ2SWL; )LJXUH7KHU0R6*HRPHWU\3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOH
$UFKLWHFWXUH
)LJXUH+HDWIOX[HV>:āP @IRUDUDQGRPFUDWHUVFHQH
ZLWKVXUIDFHHOHPHQWVDWD6XQ
HOHYDWLRQDQJOHRIƒ
*HRPHWU\3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOH
7KHUPDO DQDO\VLV RI VWUXFWXUHV LQ WKH OXQDU HQYLURQPHQW
UHTXLUHV GHWDLOHG NQRZOHGJH RI JHRPHWULFDO DV ZHOO DV
SK\VLFDOSURSHUWLHV7KH*HRPHWULF3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOH
RI WKH 7KHU0R6 WRRO VHUYHV LQ REWDLQLQJ WKHVH SURSHUWLHV
DQG DVVRFLDWLQJ WKHP IRU D FRPELQHG RXWSXW $Q REMHFW
RULHQWHG DSSURDFK ZDV FKRVHQ LQ FRQWUDVW WR SURFHGXUDO
SURJUDPPLQJ EHFDXVH LW IRFXVHV RQ GDWD LWVHOI
,QIRUPDWLRQ DQG IXQFWLRQV DUH HQFDSVXODWHG LQWR RQH
REMHFW ZKLOH LWV VWUXFWXUH FDQ EH LQKHULWHG IRU FRGH
UHXVDELOLW\>@
)LJXUH*HRPHWULF3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOH7KH8VHU
,QWHUIDFHVKRZVWKHEDVLFOD\RXWRIWKH
7KHU0R6*HRPHWU\3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOH
ZLWKLQDQGRXWSXWVIRUDJHQHULFURYHU
,QLWLDOO\ UHOHYDQW PRGHO GDWD LV H[WUDFWHG IURP H[WHUQDO
VRXUFHV &XUUHQWO\ VXSSRUWHG GDWD W\SHV DUH %') IURP
1DVWUDQ ,*(6 IURP &$7,$ (5* IURP (6$5$' DV
ZHOODV&696HJPHQWDWLRQLVDFKLHYHGE\FRQYHUWLQJ'
VKDSHV WR D FOXVWHU RI QRGHV DQG D FROOHFWLRQ RI
WULDQJXODWHG VXUIDFHV >@ 7KH IRUPHU UHSUHVHQWV HDFK
JULGSRLQWDVLWLVUHJLVWHUHGLQWKH[\]FRRUGLQDWHV\VWHP
ZKLOHWKHODWWHUSURFXUHVDFRPELQDWLRQRIWKUHHYHUWLFHVWR
IRUPDSODQH7ULDQJXODWLRQPD\DOVREHDSSOLHGDVPHVK
VLPSOLILFDWLRQ E\ UHGXFLQJ WKH DPRXQW RI IDFHV ZKLOH
PDLQWDLQLQJWKHJHQHUDOVKDSH>@(DFKVXUIDFHHOHPHQW
RI DQ REMHFW UHSUHVHQWV DQ LQGLYLGXDO GDWD SRLQW DQG
SRVVHVVHVDXQLTXHQXPEHUIRULQGH[LQJ,IPRUHWKDQRQH
REMHFWLVSUHVHQWWKHQHZHVWZLOO\LHOGWRWKHQXPHUDWLRQRI
WKH
SUHYLRXV
LH
VXUIDFHFRXQWLQJ
FRQWLQXHV
SURJUHVVLYHO\
,QRUGHUWRIRUPOLQNVEHWZHHQVWUXFWXUDOGDWDDQGPDWHULDO
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKH PRGHO LV VSOLW LQWR VHYHUDO VHJPHQWV
WKHLU QXPEHU GHWHUPLQHG E\ UHVROXWLRQ UHTXLUHPHQWV DQG
FRPSXWHU SHUIRUPDQFH >@ (DFK VHJPHQW LV DVVLJQHG D
VHWRISURSHUWLHVDQGLVVXEVHTXHQWO\LQGH[HGE\DXQLTXH
LGHQWLW\ ,' :KHQ WKH ZKROH PRGHO LV GHILQHG LW FDQ EH
IRUZDUGHG WR WKH VROYHU 2QFH SURFHVVHG WKH WKHUPDO
EHKDYLRURIHDFKHOHPHQWFDQEHGLVSOD\HG
7KH *HRPHWULF 3UHSURFHVVLQJ 0RGXOH LV DQ LQWULFDWH SDUW
RIWKH7KHU0R6HQYLURQPHQW:KLOHLQSXWGDWDLVJHQHUDOO\
QRW UHVWULFWHG WR DQ\ IRUPDW >@ WKH FRPELQHG RXWSXW
QHHGV WR DGKHUH WR D FHUWDLQ VWUXFWXUH GHSHQGLQJ RQ
VROYHUDQG5D\7UDFLQJ0RGXOHSUHUHTXLVLWHV,Q7KHU0R6
D PDWUL[ ZLWK WKH QHFHVVDU\ GDWD LV IRUZDUGHG WR WKH 5D\
7UDFLQJ0RGXOHDVZHOODVWRWKHVROYHU)LJXUHVKRZV
ϳ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
7KHDVVHPEO\WDESURYLGHVIXQFWLRQVIRUDGGLQJDGGLWLRQDO
SULPLWLYHVKDSHVFXEHVVSKHUHVF\OLQGHUV6XUIDFHVIRU
SURSHUW\DOORFDWLRQVDUHVHOHFWHGLQWHUDFWLYHO\IURPWKHSORW
LWVHOI0DWHULDOGDWDLVLPSRUWHGIURPDPRGLILDEOH0LFURVRIW
Š
([FHO GDWDEDVH >@ %DWFKHV RI VXUIDFHV FDQ EH
FRPELQHG LQ JURXSV LI WKH\ VKDUH LGHQWLFDO SURSHUWLHV
*HRPHWULFDO DQG FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SK\VLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LV
Š
DXWRPDWLFDOO\ VDYHG ZLWKLQ REMHFW RULHQWHG 0$7/$% VWUXFWV
7KHIRUZDUGUD\WUDFLQJSURYLGHVDQHDV\ZD\WRFRPSXWH
UHIOHFWLRQV DQG GLIIXVH UDGLDWLRQ EHFDXVH WKH DOJRULWKP
VLPXODWHV WKH QDWXUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UDGLDWLRQ $
GLVDGYDQWDJHRIWKLVDSSURDFKKRZHYHULVWKHKLJKQXPEHU
RI UD\V WKDW GR QRW KLW DQ\ REMHFWV $Q DOWHUQDWLYH WR WKH
IRUZDUG UD\ WUDFLQJ DSSURDFK LV EDFNZDUG UD\ WUDFLQJ
ZKHUHWKHUD\VDUHJHQHUDWHGIURPWKHREMHFWVWRWKHOLJKW
VRXUFHVLQRUGHUWRHVWLPDWHKRZPXFKUDGLDWLRQUHDFKHV
WKH VXUIDFH 6LQFH LQ WKH EDFNZDUG UD\ WUDFLQJ DSSURDFK
IHZHU UD\V KDYH WKHUHIRUH WR EH JHQHUDWHG LW LV PRUH
HIIHFWLYH LQ WHUPV RI FRPSXWDWLRQ WLPH GHPDQG 2Q WKH
RWKHU KDQG WKH VLPXODWLRQ RI UHIOHFWLRQV EHFRPHV PRUH
FRPSOLFDWHG %DFNZDUG UD\ WUDFLQJ LV DOVR SRRUO\ VXLWDEOH
IRU VLPXODWLQJ WKH LQIUDUHG UDGLDWLRQ EHFDXVH WKH QXPEHU
RIUDGLDWLRQVRXUFHVLQWKLVFDVHLVHTXDOWRWKHQXPEHURI
IDFHV
([SRUW IXQFWLRQDOLW\ WR GLYHUVH IRUPDWV H[LVWV IRU &69
(5* DQG DQ DVVRUWPHQW RI SUHOLPLQDU\ 0$7/$%
FRPSRVLWLRQV
',6&866,21
,Q WKH ILHOG RI PRGHOLQJ DQG VLPXODWLRQ DVVXPSWLRQV DQG
VLPSOLILFDWLRQV DUH LQHYLWDEOH ,Q WKLV FKDSWHU ZH GLVFXVV
WKHLULPSDFWRQWKHVWDWXVRIWKH7KHU0R6WRRO
7KH IDFWRU ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW LPSDFW RQ SHUIRUPDQFH LQ WKH
IRUZDUG UD\ WUDFLQJ DOJRULWKP LV WKH QXPEHU RI SURFHVVHG
UD\V 7KH PDMRULW\ RI HPLWWHG ,5 UD\V GRHV QRW UHDFK DQ\
REMHFWV EXW YDQLVKHV LQ VSDFH $Q LPSURYHG VWDWLVWLFDO
DSSURDFK FRXOG PLQLPL]H WKH QXPEHU RI HPLWWHG ,5 UD\V
7KLV DSSURDFK ZLWK QRQXQLIRUPO\ VDPSOHG ,5 UD\V ZRXOG
OHDG WR D PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG FRPSXWDWLRQ RI WKH SHUUD\
HQHUJ\ $QRWKHU ZD\ WR UHGXFH WKH DPRXQW RI JHQHUDWHG
,5 UD\V ZRXOG EH WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ D VPDOO DUHD LQ
WKHFHQWHURIWKHVFHQHZLWKDKLJKUD\GHQVLW\DQGDOHVV
LPSRUWDQW DUHD DW WKH RXWHU ULP RI WKH VFHQH ZLWK IHZHU
HPLWWHG ,5 UD\V SHU IDFH %RWK DSSURDFKHV QHHG IXUWKHU
VWXG\DQGRQHRIWKRVHZLOOEHLPSOHPHQWHGHYHQWXDOO\
7KH XVH RI .DJX\D GDWD IRU WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH
WRSRJUDSKLF PDS KDV WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH WKDW LW FDQQRW EH
FRPSDUHG GLUHFWO\ ZLWK GDWD REWDLQHG E\ WKH /XQDU
5HFRQQDLVVDQFH 2UELWHU /52 7KH FRRUGLQDWH IUDPHV
WKDW ZHUH XVHG IRU WKH GDWD VHWV RI WKH WZR SUREHV GLIIHU
VOLJKWO\,QRUGHUWRFRPSDUHWHPSHUDWXUHVFDOFXODWHGZLWK
WKH 7KHU0R6 WRRO EDVHG RQ .DJX\D WRSRJUDSKLF GDWD
ZLWKWHPSHUDWXUHGDWDPHDVXUHGZLWK/52'LYLQHUGDWDLW
ZLOO EH QHFHVVDU\ WR HLWKHU SHUIRUP D VXLWDEOH FRRUGLQDWH
WUDQVIRUPDWLRQRUWRUHO\HQWLUHO\RQ/52GDWD
7KH FXUUHQW 5HJROLWK /D\HU 0RGXOH RI 7KHU0R6 XVHV
PDWHULDO SURSHUWLHV DQG KHDW IOX[HV WKDW ZHUH PHDVXUHG
GXULQJWKH$SROORHUDHLWKHU LQVLWXRULQVDPSOHVUHWXUQHG
WR(DUWK7KHH[WUDSRODWLRQRIWKHVHPDWHULDOSURSHUWLHVWR
WKHHQWLUH0RRQOHDGVWRHUURUV7KHWKHUPDODVZHOODVWKH
RSWLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI UHJROLWK GLIIHU IURP UHJLRQ WR UHJLRQ
7KLVLVGXHWRDODUJHYDULHW\LQJHRORJLFDOFRPSRVLWLRQRI
WKH UHJROLWK ,W LV QRW SDUW RI WKLV ZRUN WR DGGUHVV WKHVH
GLIIHUHQFHV ,Q WKH IXWXUH H[LVWLQJ JHRORJLFDO PDSV RI WKH
0RRQ PLJKW EH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH 7KHU0R6 WRRO ,Q RUGHU WR
JDLQ WKH PRVW DFFXUDWH WHPSHUDWXUH FDOFXODWLRQ LW ZLOO EH
LQHYLWDEOH WR XVH GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH UHJLRQ RI
LQWHUHVW
&21&/86,216)8785(:25.
7KH FXUUHQW VWDWXV RI WKH 7KHU0R6 WRRO GHYHORSHG DW WKH
,QVWLWXWH RI $VWURQDXWLFV DW WKH 7HFKQLVFKH 8QLYHUVLWlW
0QFKHQZDVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVSDSHU7KHWRROLVDEOHWR
FUHDWH WRSRJUDSKLF PDSV EDVHG RQ .DJX\D /$/7
PHDVXUHPHQWV 7KH WRSRJUDSK\ FDQ EH GLVSOD\HG LQ
VHYHUDOZD\VWRDOORZIRUODUJHVFDOHVSKHULFDOPDSVORFDO
VTXDUH PDSV IRU WHPSHUDWXUH FDOFXODWLRQV DV ZHOO DV
SDQRUDPDYLHZVWRJHWDQLPSUHVVLRQRIWKHORFDOKRUL]RQ
IRU D VXUIDFHFUDIW 7KH 5HJROLWK /D\HU 0RGXOH UHOLHV RQ
ROGHUPRGHOVIRUOXQDUWHPSHUDWXUHFDOFXODWLRQVZKLFKXVH
WHPSHUDWXUH GHSHQGHQW UHJROLWK WKHUPDO SURSHUWLHV
WKHUPDOFRQGXFWLYLW\DQGKHDWFDSDFLW\7KHPRGHOVZHUH
HQKDQFHGZLWKDGHQVLW\GHSHQGHQF\WRDOORZIRUGLIIHUHQW
VORSH DQJOHV 7KH PRGHO DFFRXQWV IRU D UHJROLWK GHSWK RI
DERXW PHWHUV DQG LQFRUSRUDWHV WKH OXQDU KHDW IORZ
RULJLQDWLQJ IURP WKH OXQDU LQWHULRU ,Q WKLV ZD\ WKH
WHPSHUDWXUHRIDJLYHQVXUIDFHHOHPHQWFDQEHFDOFXODWHG
GHSHQGLQJ RQ WLPH RI OXQDU GD\ LQFLGHQW KHDW IOX[
WHPSHUDWXUHLQWHUQDOKHDWIORZDQGVORSHDQJOH
:LWKWKHERXOGHUDQGFUDWHUPRGHOORFDOOXQDUVFHQHVFDQ
EHFUHDWHGUDQGRPO\7KHFUDWHUVDUHFUHDWHGEDVHGRQD
SUHGHILQHGVKDSHDQGQRWIRUPHGGXHWRVLPXODWHGHYHQWV
7KXV WKHUH LV QR RYHUOD\ RI ROGHU FUDWHUV ZLWK HMHFWD
PDWHULDO IURP \RXQJHU FUDWHUV 7KH RYHUOD\ RI GLIIHUHQW
FUDWHUV LV LGHDOL]HG ZKLFK OHDGV WR WKH HIIHFW WKDW FUDWHU
ULPV DUH DOZD\V VKDUS HGJHV DQG QRW GHJUDGHG (MHFWD
OD\HUVDQGULPHGJHVLPSDFWWKHWHPSHUDWXUHFDOFXODWLRQV
)RUWKHFXUUHQWVWDJHLWLVQRWVHQVLEOHWRGHWDLOWKHFUDWHUV
DQ\IXUWKHU,IDODQGLQJVLWHLVGHWHUPLQHGRQHFRXOGEXLOG
D UHILQHG PRGHO EDVHG RQ LPDJHV WDNHQ ZLWK KLJK
UHVROXWLRQFDPHUDVIURPRUELW
7KH LPSOHPHQWHG RUELW 3URSDJDWRU /XQDU 2ULHQWDWLRQ
0RGXOH UHOLHV RQ WKH 9623$ SRZHU VHULHV
GHYHORSPHQWDSSURDFK,WLVZHOOVXLWHGWRPHHWWKHQHHGV
RI WKH FXUUHQW 7KHU0R6 VLPXODWLRQ DSSURDFK ,W DOORZV
SUHGLFWLQJWKHD]LPXWKDQGHOHYDWLRQIRUDQRSHUDWRURQWKH
OXQDUVXUIDFHIRUDXVHUGHILQHGSHULRG
7KH PRGXOH GRHV QRW \HW DFFRXQW IRU ERXOGHUV LQVLGH
FUDWHUV 7KLV LV DQ RQJRLQJ SURFHVV DQG ZLOO EH
LPSOHPHQWHG LQ WKH QHDU IXWXUH )RU FUDWHUV LQ WKH PDUH
UHJLRQVWKLVLVRIQRELJ FRQFHUQEXWIRUKLJKODQGUHJLRQV
LQWHUHVWLQJ IRU FXUUHQWO\ SURSRVHG OXQDU PLVVLRQV WKRVH
ERXOGHUVDUHLPSRUWDQW7KHERXOGHUFRYHUDJHZLWKUHJROLWK
LV FXUUHQWO\ QRW DFFRXQWHG IRU ZKLFK PLJKW OHDG WR DQ
DGGLWLRQDOHUURULQERXOGHUFRUHWHPSHUDWXUH,WQHHGVWREH
GHWHUPLQHG KRZ ODUJH WKH LQVXODWLQJ HIIHFWV RI OD\HUV RI
UHJROLWKDUH
7KH%RXOGHU&UDWHU0RGXOHLVDEOHWRUHSUHVHQWDVPDOO
VHFWLRQ RI WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH ZLWK VPDOO VLPSOH FUDWHUV QRW
FRYHUHG E\ WRSRJUDSKLF GDWD REWDLQHG E\ UHPRWH VHQVLQJ
ODVHULQVWUXPHQWV7KHPRGXOHXVHVVFLHQWLILFGDWDIRU WKH
FUDWHUGHQVLW\GHSHQGLQJRQWKHORFDWLRQEHLQJDPDUHRU
D KLJKODQG UHJLRQ 0RUHRYHU D ERXOGHU VL]H GLVWULEXWLRQ
DQG ERXOGHU RFFXUUHQFH LV LPSOHPHQWHG WKDW GHSHQGV RQ
FUDWHU VL]H 7KHUHE\ WKH &UDWHU %RXOGHU 0RGXOH
ϴ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
/52±/XQDU5HFRQQDLVVDQFH2UELWHU
DPSOLILHVWKHUHVROXWLRQRIWKH*OREDO7RSRJUDSKLF0RGXOH
WRIRUPDPRUHGHWDLOHGOXQDUODQGVFDSH
/57±/HKUVWXKOIU5DXPIDKUWWHFKQLN
7KH *HRPHWU\ 0RGXOH DOORZV IRU WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI
JHRPHWULHV VXFK DV WKH WRSRJUDSK\ DQG DUWLILFLDO REMHFWV
VSKHUHV FXEHV RU GHWDLOHG VXUIDFH FUDIW 7KH *HRPHWU\
3UHSURFHVVLQJ 0RGXOH PRUHRYHU LV FDSDEOH RI ORDGLQJ
JHRPHWU\ ILOHV IURP GLIIHUHQW IRUPDWV ,*(6 %') (5*
Š
DQG RXWSXWWLQJ WKHP WR (5* &69 RU 0$7/$% ILOH
IRUPDWV 7KH *HRPHWU\ 3UHSURFHVVLQJ 0RGXOH SURYLGHV
WKH XVHU ZLWK D JUDSKLFDO XVHU LQWHUIDFH WKDW DOORZV
PDQLSXODWLQJ WKH JHRPHWULHV WR DGG PDWHULDOV DQG WR
DVVRFLDWHWKHVHPDWHULDOVWRVXUIDFHHOHPHQWVRUJURXSVRI
VXUIDFH HOHPHQWV 7KH *HRPHWU\ 3UHSURFHVVLQJ 0RGXOH
DOVR DOORZV VHOHFWLQJ VXUIDFHV LQVLGH WKH ' SORW ,W FDQ
KRZHYHUEHDWHGLRXVWDVNLIWKHJHRPHWULFREMHFWFRQWDLQV
PDQ\HOHPHQWV
03(±0RELOH3D\ORDG(OHPHQW
57*±5DGLRLVRWRSHWKHUPRHOHFWULFJHQHUDWRU
65*±6WLUOLQJUDGLRLVRWRSHJHQHUDWRUV
67(3±6WDQGDUGIRUWKHH[FKDQJHRISURGXFWPRGHOGDWD
67.±6DWHOOLWHWRRONLW
7KHU0R6±7KHUPDO0RRQVLPXODWRU
780±7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ
9623$ 9DULDWLRQV 6pFXODLUHV GHV 2UELWHV
3ODQpWDLUHVLVWKH\HDURISXEOLVKLQJ
$&.12:/('*(0(176
,Q WKH IXWXUH WKH GLIIHUHQW PRGXOHV ZLOO EH IXUWKHU
HQKDQFHG LQ RUGHU WR DOORZ WKH FDOFXODWLRQ RI WKH
WHPSHUDWXUHV IRU VXUIDFHFUDIW DQG IRU WKH OXQDU VXUIDFH
7KXVDGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQEHWZHHQPDUHDQGKLJKODQGUHJROLWK
ZLOO EH LPSOHPHQWHG 7KH WKHUPDO LQHUWLD RI ERXOGHUV IRU
WKHUPDOFDOFXODWLRQVZLOOEHDGGUHVVHGDQGIXUWKHUUHILQHG
7KHSDUWLDOFRYHUDJHRIERXOGHUVZLWKUHJROLWKDQGLWVHIIHFW
RQ ERXOGHU FRUH WHPSHUDWXUH ZLOO EH DGGUHVVHG :LWK
UHJDUG WR IXWXUH PLVVLRQV LQ OXQDU KLJKODQG UHJLRQV WKH
SRVVLELOLW\RISODFLQJERXOGHUVLQVLGHFUDWHUVZLOOEHDGGHG
7KHFRPSXWDWLRQWLPHIRUWKHIRUZDUGUD\WUDFLQJDOJRULWKP
LV VWLOO KLJK FDXVHG E\ ,5 UD\V EHLQJ HPLWWHG IURP HYHU\
VXUIDFHHOHPHQW7KHIRUZDUGUD\WUDFLQJDOJRULWKPQHHGV
WR EH UHILQHG IXUWKHULQ RUGHU WR UHGXFHFRPSXWDWLRQ WLPH
7KH*HRPHWULF3UHSURFHVVLQJ0RGXOHZLOOEHHQKDQFHGE\
DPRGXOHWRWUDQVODWHRUURWDWHDQREMHFWLQDJLYHQSHULRG
RIWLPH
7KHDXWKRUVZRXOGOLNHWRDFNQRZOHGJH0DUWLQ.DUDQLNRORY
IRUKLVZRUNRQWKH5HJROLWK/D\HU0RGXOH)UDQN<DQQLFN
9RJHO DQG $OH[DQGHU /HFKQHU IRU WKHLU ZRUN ZLWK WKH
.DJX\DGDWDWRGHULYHWKHJOREDOWRSRJUDSKLFPDS
5()(5(1&(6
3HWWLW(1LFKROVRQ6%³/XQDUUDGLDWLRQDQG
WHPSHUDWXUHV´$PHULFDQ$VWURQRPLF6RFLHW\±
:HVVHOLQN$-³+HDWFRQGXFWLYLW\DQGQDWXUHRIWKHOXQDU
VXUIDFHPDWHULDO´%XOOHWLQRIWKHDVWURQRPLFDOLQVWLWXWHVRIWKH
1HWKHUODQGV9RO,VVXHSS±
-DHJHU-&³7KHVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHPRRQ´
$XVWUDOLDQ-RXUQDORI3K\VLFV9RO
/LQVN\-/³0RGHOVRIWKH/XQDU6XUIDFH,QFOXGLQJ
7HPSHUDWXUH'HSHQGHQW7KHUPDO3URSHUWLHV´,FDUXV9RO
SS±
.URWLNRY9'6KXNR2'³7KHKHDWEDODQFHRIWKH
OXQDUVXUIDFHOD\HUGXULQJDOXQDWLRQ´6RYLHW$VWURQRP\
-RXUQDO9RO1RSSSURYLGHGE\WKH
1$6$$VWURSK\VLFV'DWD6\VWHP
:LQWHU')6DDU-0³$SDUWLFXODWHWKHUPRSK\VLFDO
PRGHORIWKHOXQDUVRLO´7KH$VWURSK\VLFDO-RXUQDO9RO
SS
0HQ]HO'+³7HPSHUDWXUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH0RRQ´
3KLORVRSKLFDO7UDQVDFWLRQVRIWKH5R\DO6RFLHW\RI/RQGRQ
6HULHV$0DWKHPDWLFDODQG3K\VLFDO6FLHQFHV9RO1R
$'LVFXVVLRQRQ,QIUDUHG$VWURQRP\SS
&UHPHUV&-%LUNHEDN5&:KLWH-(³/XQDU
VXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHVIURP$SROOR´(DUWK0RRQDQG
3ODQHWV9RO,VVXHSS
$OOHQ'$³,QIUDUHG6WXGLHVRIWKHOXQDUWHUUDLQSDUW,
7KHEDFNJURXQGPRRQ´(DUWK0RRQDQG3ODQHWV9ROXPH
,VVXHSS±
$OOHQ'$³,QIUDUHGVWXGLHVRIWKH/XQDUWHUUDLQSDUW,,
WKHUPDODQRPDOLHV´(DUWK0RRQDQG3ODQHWV9ROXPH,VVXH
±
9DVDYDGD$VKZLQ53DLJH'DYLG$:RRG6WHSKHQ
(³1HDU6XUIDFH7HPSHUDWXUHVRQ0HUFXU\DQGWKH0RRQDQG
WKH6WDELOLW\RI3RODU,FH'HSRVLWV´,FDUXV9RO,VVXH
SS
6DOYDLO-5)DQDOH)3³1HDUVXUIDFHLFHRQ0HUFXU\
DQGWKH0RRQ$WRSRJUDSKLFWKHUPDOPRGHO´,FDUXV9RO
SS
5DFFD*'³0RRQVXUIDFHWKHUPDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRU
PRRQRUELWLQJVSDFHFUDIWWKHUPDODQDO\VLV´3ODQHWDU\DQG
6SDFH6FLHQFH9RO,VVXHSS
&KULVWLH5REHUW-3ODFKWD'DYLG:+DVDQ0RKDPPDG
0³7UDQVLHQW7KHUPDO0RGHODQG$QDO\VLVRIWKH/XQDU
/RQJ WHUP JRDOV RI WKH HQWLUH HQGHDYRU DUH WKH
FRPSDULVRQ RI UHVXOWV RI D WRSRJUDSKLF PDS ZLWK YDOXHV
PHDVXUHG E\ /52 LQVWUXPHQWV ',9,1(5 GDWD WR DGG
VXUIDFHFUDIWJHRPHWULHVVXFKDVURYHUVDQGDVWURQDXWVLQ
VSDFHVXLWV DQG WR DGG PRYHPHQWV RI VXUIDFHFUDIW
WKURXJKVFHQHVZLWKERXOGHUVDQGFUDWHUV8OWLPDWHO\UXOH
RIWKXPEVZLOOEHGHULYHGIRUWKHWKHUPDOGHVLJQRIVXUIDFH
FUDIWRQWKHOXQDUVXUIDFH
$&521<06$%%5(9,$7,216
$7&±$FWLYHWKHUPDOFRQWURO
%')±%XONGDWDILOH1$675$1
&69±&RPPDVHSDUDWHGYDOXHV
(6$±(XURSHDQ6SDFH$JHQF\
(9$±([WUDYHKLFXODUDFWLYLW\
*38±*UDSKLFVSURFHVVLQJXQLW
*8,±*UDSKLFDOXVHULQWHUIDFH
,*(6±,QLWLDOJUDSKLFVH[FKDQJHVSHFLILFDWLRQ
,0&&(±,QVWLWXWGH0pFKDQLTXH&pOHVWHHWGH&DOFXOGHV
eSKHPHULGHV
,5±,QIUDUHG
-3/±-HW3URSXOVLRQ/DERUDWRU\
/$/7±/DVHU$OWLPHWHU
/&*±/LTXLGFRROLQJJDUPHQW
//±/XQDU/DQGHU
ϵ
ĞƵƚƐĐŚĞƌ>ƵĨƚͲƵŶĚZĂƵŵĨĂŚƌƚŬŽŶŐƌĞƐƐϮϬϭϮ
+|U] ) *ULHYH 5 +HLNHQ* 6SXGLV3 DQG %LQGHU
$ ³/XQDU 6XUIDFH 3URFHVVHV´ LQ 7KH /XQDU 6RXUFHERRN ± $
XVHU¶V JXLGH WR WKH 0RRQ &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 1HZ
<RUN3RUW&KHVWHU0HOERXUQH6\GQH\SS
%DUW * ' 0HORVK + - ³8VLQJ OXQDU ERXOGHUV WR
GLVWLQJXLVK SULPDU\ IURP GLVWDQW VHFRQGDU\ LPSDFW FUDWHUV´
*HRSK\VLFDO 5HVHDUFK /HWWHUV 9RO /
GRL*/
0LWFKHOO-.+RXVWRQ:16FRWW5)&RVWHV1&
&DUULHU:',,,DQG%URPZHOO/*³0HFKDQLFDOSURSHUWLHV
RI OXQDU VRLO 'HQVLW\ SRURVLW\ FRKHVLRQ DQG DQJOHRI LQWHUQDO
IULFWLRQ´ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH /XQDU 6FLHQFH &RQIHUHQFH SS±
7XUWOH(33LHUD]]R(&ROOLQV*62VLQVNL*5
0HORVK + - 0RUJDQ - 9 DQG 5HLPROG : 8 ³,PSDFW
VWUXFWXUHV:KDWGRHVFUDWHUGLDPHWHUPHDQ"´LQ.HQNPDQQ7
+|U] ) DQG 'HXWVFK $ HGV /DUJH PHWHRULWH LPSDFWV ,,,
*HRORJLFDO6RFLHW\RI$PHULFD6SHFLDO3DSHUSS±
1HXNXP*DQG,YDQRY%$³&UDWHU6L]H'LVWULEXWLRQV
DQG,PSDFW3UREDELOLWLHVRQ(DUWKIURP/XQDU7HUUHVWULDOSODQHW
DQG$VWHURLG&UDWHULQJ'DWD´LQ7*HKUHOVHG+D]DUGVGXH
WR &RPHWV DQG $VWHURLGV 8QLY RI $UL]RQD 3UHVV 7XFVRQ DQG
/RQGRQSS±
&LQWDOD 0 - *DUYLQ - % DQG :HW]HO 6 - ³7KH
GLVWULEXWLRQRI EORFNV DURXQG D IUHVK OXQDU PDUH FUDWHU´ /XQDU
DQG3ODQHWDU\6FLHQFH;,,,SS$EVWUDFW
0RRUH + - ³/DUJH EORFNV DURXQG OXQDU FUDWHUV´
$QDO\VLV RI $SROOR 3KRWRJUDSK\ DQG 9LVXDO 2EVHUYDWLRQV
1$6$63SS
/HH 6 : 7KRPDV 3 DQG 9HYHUND - ³3KRERV
'HLPRV DQG WKH 0RRQ VL]H DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI FUDWHU HMHFWD
EORFNV´,FDUXV9RO,VVXHSS±
+RYODQG + - DQG 0LWFKHOO - . ³%RXOGHU WUDFNV DQG
QDWXUH RI OXQDU VRLO´ 7KH 0RRQ 9RO ,VVXH SS
±
:HLJHUW$:HQGNHU+-:LVRW]NL/³$VWURQRPLH
XQG$VWURSK\VLN³3RWVGDP:,/(<9&+S
0RLVVRQ;%UHWDJQRQ3³$QDO\WLFDO3ODQHWDU\
6ROXWLRQ9623´&HOHVWLDO0HFKDQLFVDQG'\QDPLFDO
$VWURQRP\SS
7D\ORU'%%HOO6$+LOWRQ-/6LQFODLU$7
³&RPSXWDWLRQRIWKH4XDQWLWLHV'HVFULELQJWKH/XQDU/LEUDWLRQ
LQ7KH$VWURQRPLFDO$OPDQDF´1$27HFKQLFDO1RWH
8QV|OG$%DVFKHN%³'HU1HXH.RVPRV(LQIKUXQJ
LQGLH$VWURQRPLHXQG$VWURSK\VLN³+HLGHOEHUJ6SULQJHU
S
'XWUH3Ä*OREDO,OOXPLQDWLRQ&RPSHQGLXP³S
6YHQN*³2EMHFW2ULHQWHG3URJUDPPLQJ8VLQJ&
IRU(QJLQHHULQJDQG7HFKQRORJ\´'HOPDUSS±
.LQJ-³0DWODEIRU(QJLQHHUV+DQGV2Q7XWRULDO´5
7(GZDUGV,QFSS±
:RKOIDUWK85DX0%HXVFKHO0$QJHUPDQQ$
³0$7/$%6LPXOLQN6WDWHIORZ*UXQGODJHQ7RROER[HQ
%HLVSLHOH´2OGHQERXUJ:LVVHQVFKDIWVYHUODJSS±
5RGHUHU+³*UDILNLQ0$7/$%(LQ.RPSHQGLXP´
*5,1SS±
2OOLQJ*-&KRL%.-HUDUG5%³0DFKLQLQJ
,PSRVVLEOH6KDSHV´9RO6SULQJHU86SS±
0RDYHQL6³(QJLQHHULQJ)XQGDPHQWDOV$Q
,QWURGXFWLRQWR(QJLQHHULQJ´:DGVZRUWK,QF)XOILOOPHQW
SS±
6XUIDFHDQG5HJROLWKIRU&U\RJHQLF)OXLG6WRUDJH´1$6$70
&ODZVRQ-)7VX\XNL*7$QGHUVRQ%--XVWXV
&*%DWWV:)HUJXVRQ'DQG*LOPRUH'*³6SDFHFUDIW
7KHUPDO(QYLURQPHQWV´6SDFHFUDIW7KHUPDO&RQWURO+DQGERRN
HGLWHGE\'DYLG**LOPRUH9ROXPH)XQGDPHQWDO
7HFKQRORJLHVQGHGLWLRQSS±
*XPS'$7KRUQWRQ-³3URVSHFWVIRU5RERWLF/XQDU
([SORUDWLRQE\&RPPHUFLDO(QWHUSULVH´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHQG
,((($HURVSDFH&RQIHUHQFH,((($&SDSHU
%DUUDJORXJK6+XVWRQ.$OORXLV(³7KHUPDO'HVLJQ
IRU0RRQ1(;73RODU5RYHU´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV6$(3DSHU
3HFVRQ-%R\G'$+DVKHPL$$DURQ.$PEURVH
-0DGGR[-)0DWWLVRQ(09HVVRW5)&³3UHFLVLRQ
7HPSHUDWXUH&RQWURO´6SDFHFUDIW7KHUPDO&RQWURO+DQGERRN
HGLWHGE\'DYLG**LOPRUH9ROXPH)XQGDPHQWDO
7HFKQRORJLHVQGHGLWLRQSS±
6KDOWHQV5.³)XWXUH2SSRUWXQLWLHVIRU'\QDPLF
3RZHU6\VWHPVIRU1$6$0LVVLRQV´,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WLUOLQJ
)RUXP
.DWXQWVHY932VLSRY<X<X%DUHU$6*QRHYD\
1.7DUDVHQNRY**³7KHPDLQUHVXOWVRI(9$PHGLFDO
VXSSRUWRQWKH0LU6SDFH6WDWLRQ´$FWD$VWURQDXWLFD9RO
,VVXHSS±
%DUHU$6³(9$PHGLFDOSUREOHPV´$FWD
$VWURQDXWLFD9ROXPHSS±
0HWWV-*.ODXV'0³&RQFHSWXDO$QDO\VLV
RI(OHFWURFKURPLF5DGLDWRUVIRU6SDFH6XLWV´3URFHHGLQJVRI
WKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV
6$(3DSHU
)XOOHUWRQ5.³$GYDQFHG(9$5RDGPDSVDQG
5HTXLUHPHQWV´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHVW,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFHRQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV6$(3DSHU
*DQDSDWKL*%6XQDGD(7%LUXU*&0LOOHU-
56WHSKDQ5´'HVLJQ'HVFULSWLRQDQG,QLWLDO&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQ
7HVWLQJRIDQ$FWLYH+HDW5HMHFWLRQ5DGLDWRUZLWK'LJLWDO7XUQ
'RZQ&DSDELOLW\´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFHRQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV6$(,QWHUQDWLRQDO
2FKRD'$0LUDQGD%0&RQJHU%&7UHYLQR/
$´/XQDU(9$7KHUPDO(QYLURQPHQW&KDOOHQJHV´
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV6$(3DSHU
2FKRD'$9RJHO057UHYLQR/$6WHSKDQ5
$´3RWHQWLDORID1HZ/XQDU6XUIDFH5DGLDWRU&RQFHSWIRU+RW
/XQDU7KHUPDO(QYLURQPHQWV´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK
,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV6$(3DSHU
6RULDQR7³/XQDU%DVH7KHUPDO$QDO\VLVZLWK
7+(50,&$´SUHSDUHGIRUWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDOFRQIHUHQFHRI
(QYLURQPHQWDO6\VWHPV%DUFHORQDQRWSXEOLVKHG±
SHUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ
$UDNL+7D]DZD61RGD+,VKLKDUD<*RRVVHQV
66DVDNL61DZDQR1.DPL\D,2WDNH+2EHUVW-
6KXP&³/XQDU*OREDO6KDSHDQG3RODU7RSRJUDSK\'HULYHG
IURP.DJX\D/$/7/DVHU$OWLPHWU\´6FLHQFH9ROXPH
,VVXHSS±
&UHPHUV&-%LUNHEDN5&:KLWH-(³/XQDU6XUIDFH
7HPSHUDWXUHVDW7UDQTXLOLW\%DVH´$,$$-RXUQDOYRO1R
S
+DJHU 3 .DUDQLNRORY 0 /HFKQHU $ 9RJHO < Ä$
OXQDU VXUIDFH HQYLURQPHQW PRGHO IRU WKH WKHUPDO PRRQ
VLPXODWRU´3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHVWFRQIHUHQFHRQHQYLURQPHQWDO
V\VWHPV$,$$3RUWODQG86$
ϭϬ