Public Disclosure Authorized
R E ST R I C T E D
ReportNo. TO-315e
Public Disclosure Authorized
Thisreportwas preparedfor usewithinthe Bank. It maynot be publishednor may
it be quotedas representingthe Bank'sviews. The Bankacceptsno responsibility
for the accuracyor completeness
of the contentsof the report.
Public Disclosure Authorized
INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT
APPRAISAL
TOLL
TRANSPORT
OF THE
FACILITIES
Public Disclosure Authorized
MEXICO
June
Department
of Technical
Operations
12,
1962
PROJECT
CURRENCY
EQUIVALENTS
Mex$ 12. 50 = US $1. 00
US$ 8
= Mex $1.00
MEXICO
APPRAISALOF THE TOLL TRANSPORTFACILITIES PROJECT
Page
SUMMARY
I.
i
INTRODUCTION
II. GLNERALTRANSPORTFACILITIES
1
III.
2
THE "CAI{tNOSY PUENITESFEDERALESAUTHORITY"
A. Organization
and Management
B. Present Scope of Activities
C. Financial
Position
and Earnings
IV.
THE PROJECT
2
3
3
6
A. Descriptionof the ProposedProject
a) Toll Ro:sds
b) Access Roads and Other Tlorks
c) Toll Bridges
d) Ferry
6
6
8
9
10
B. Design Standards and Specifications
a) Road Standards
b) Bridge Standards
c) Ferry Specifications
11
11
12
12
C. Status of Engineering
a) Roads and Bridges
b) Ferry
13
13
14
D. Cost Estimates of the Project
14
E.
Award and ProcurementProcedures
15
F. Local and Foreign Currency Components
16
G. Phasing of ConstructionExpendituresand
Foreign Coponent Cash Flow
17
V. FINANCINGOF PROJECT
18
A. Financial Scheme
18
B. Toll Rates and FinancialReturns
19
VI. TECHNICAL JUSTIFICATIONOF PROJECT
21
A. Traffic Level
a) Traffic Records
b) Traffic Growth
c) Capacities
21
21
21
23
Table of ContentsCont'd.
Page
VII.
t1. Justificationof ProposedDesign Standards
on Toll Roads
23
C. Traffic on Toll Bridges
23
ECONOMICJUSTIFIC-TION OF PROJELCT
24
Forecast
A. Justification
of Traffic
B. Direct Economic Returns on Roads and Bridges
C. Economic Returns of the Ferry
D. AdditionalBenefits and IndirectReturns
VIII. CONCLUSIONSANDRECOINENDATIONS
24
24
26
26
27
ANNEXE.S
Appendix A. Economic Development of the Affected Areas
of Direct Economic Benefits on Roads and Bridges
Appendix B. Appraisal
Appendix C. Technical and Economic Justification
of the Ferry
Table 1. Revenues and Traffic Growth on Present Toll Facilities
Table 2. PrincipalDesign Standards of Toll Roads
Table 3. PrincipalDesign Standards of Toll Bridges
Table 4. Principal Specificationsof the Ferry
Table 5. Program of Investments
Table 6. Audited Balance Sheet of the C.Y.P. Authority
Table 7. Cash Flow
Table 8. Debt Service
Table 9. Saturationratio on Existing Roads
Table 10. Analysis of Average Operation Cost of Vehicles per Km.
Table 11. IllustrativeTable of Economic Returns (Mexico-Ventade Carpio)
de Carpio)
Table 12. IllustrativeTable of FinancialReturns (14exico-Venta
Figure
Figure
Chart of "Caminos y Puentes
1. Organizational
Increase and Gasoline
2. Vehicle Registration
de Ingresos"
Federales
Consumption in IMexico
MAPS
Project - Main Highway Network
New Toll Facilities
Detailed Map of Projected
Toll Roads
Mexico City - Puebla - Orizaba Toll Road -- Zone of Economic Influence
IEXICO
APPRAISALOF THE TOLL TRANSPORTFACILITIES PROJCT
SU>+LARY
i.
The Government of Mexico, through its autonomo Ls authority
"Caminosy Puentes Federales
de Ingresos",
has requested
-he Bank to assist
in financing
a part of a program of Toll Facilitiesin kMe:
ico.
ii.
The first phase of the program now under consideration
consists
of three toll highways, five toll bridges,
and a ferry wit.i its terminals.
One of the toll roads and four bridges are already in various stages of
construction.
iii,
The project is scheduledfor the period November 1, 1961 through
1964 and totals about USki67.4million equivalent,including administrative
overhead and contingencies.
iv.
The proposed loan would be the second Bank loan for road construction in Mexico. It would total USC30.5 million on the basis of the
foreign currency component includinginterest during construction,and
would be about 41% of the total cost oL the project.
IlMexico
has deliberatelyand successfullyengaged, for the past
few years, in a program of toll facilitiesto provide faster and more convenient transportationin the areas where congestionis becomingserious
on existing free highways, in order to reserve budgetary resources for
maintenanceand road extension into regions not yet adequatelyserved.
V.
vi.
The local administrationand organizationalstructureof the
Public Authority in charge of these toll facilities,
"Caminos y Puentes
Federales
de Ingresos",
is satisfactory.
The Authority
appears to be
competent for managing and maintainingthe facilitieswhich would result
from the new project.
vii.
The design and planningwere done by the Project and Laboratory
Division and the implementationwill be carried out by the Highway ConstructionDivision,both part of the Ministry of Public W'Jorks.These Divisions have clear lines of authority.
They are efficiently
organized,
equipped and staffed
and foreign consultants
are not required.
viii.
All Bank-financed
new contracts
will be awarded on the basis of
internationalcompetitivebidding, according to contractproceduresand
methods satisfactory
to the Bank.
ix.
Estimates of constructioncost and of the foreign currency
componentare realistic. The local currencycomponent of cost would be
financedout of additionalloans from "Banco Hipotecario",and earningsof
"Caminos y Puentes".
x.
Extensive
information,
including
reliable
traf.'in- counts, has
been supplied,
They show that the project
would yield a hi.gt economic
principally
from the 3avings in
investment,
resulting
return on capital
cost by using the new toll highways or to:l bridges.
vehicle operating
The toll highway and the ferry which are to serve Baja CaLJifo:-nia will
to
essential
facilities
with new transportation
provide this territory
its development.
xi.
Financial returns expected from every facility of the project
would repay with 6% interesttheir full investmentcost in 8 to 20 years,
a shorter period than the economiclife of any of the facilities,
xii.
The project is consideredto be suitablefor a Bank loan of
USW30.5 million equivalent,over a period of 20 years including a grace
period of three years.
MEXICO
APPRAISALOF TH' TOLL TRANSPORTFACILITIES PROJECT
I.
INTRODUCTIONT
The Government of Mexico, through its autonomous authority
1.
approached the Bank in October
de Ingresos"
"Caminos y Puentes Federales
1961 for a loan to finance part of the cost of a program of Toll Transport Facilitiesin Mexico. The total cost of the project is estimated at
US%67,4 million equivalent.
The Bank made a highway loan to Mexico in 1960 (Loan 268-_E) for
2.
the constructionof 3,200 km of roads in various areas. This project is
being satisfactorilycarried out under the supervisionof the Public Works
Department.
3.
This report is based on the preliminary studiesmade by the
of the Bank mission which
Public Works Administration
and on the findings
visited Mexico in December 1961 to study the proposed Toll Transport
FacilitiesProject.
II
GENERAL TRANSPORTFACILITIESANDHIGM1JAYPOLICY
4.
The economic developmentof MIexicohas been progressingat a
rapid pace during the past decade, especiallyin the areas surroundingthe
capital,Mexico City. During this period the number of vehicles and the
consumptionof gasoline have more than doubled (see Figure 2). The capacity of the transport system,particularlyhighways, is limited and in some
areas, especiallynear the capital, is greatly in need of enlargement.
Since 1946, each successiveadministrationhas stressedthe developmentof
the country'sroad system on the basis of well-plannedand executedprograms.
The total network now has some 45,000 'kmof roads, including 20,000 kn of
federal highways. The federal road system is being improved and extended
with the help of the Bank's previous highway loan which will result in the
and improvementof 13 roads totaling 3,200 kmo,mostly serving
construction
new areas, throughoutthe country. The present program concentrateson
areas where traffic is already substantialand where congestionis becoming
serious.
Toll highways are to be constructedin areas where traffic is
5.
especiallyheavy. In this way the Governmentexpects to eliminate growing
congestionand to provide faster and more convenienttransportation. When
these toll roads are completedthe users will have in each case the choice
of taking the free highway or of paying a toll to attain the comparative
advantagesof faster and more convenienttransportationavailablewith the
new toll highway. Experience with those toll roads already built in Mexico
indicates the success of this method in financingthe constructionof
superhighwayswithout burdening the Government'sbudget.
- 2-
6.
extension
policy is
system of
served by
Because of the grea demand for the continued imorovementand
the country, the 3overnment's
of the highway system throughout
of the existing
for maintenance
to reserve budgetary resources
into regions not yet adequately
free highways and its extension
facility.
any transport
III.
A,
THE "CAIHINOS
Y PUENTES FEDERA.LES"
AUTHORITY
Organizationand Management
An autonomouscorporationin charge of toll highways was first
7.
created in 1952 to take over the operationsof the new Mexico-Cuernavaca
Highway. Other toll transport facilitieswere brought under the management
of this authority which was reorganizedin 1958. The last step resulted
in the present organization,"Caminosy Puentes Federalesde Ingresos"
which was created by presidentialdecree on June 3, 1959, as an autonomous
Public Authority to take over sole responsibilityfor financing,operating
in Mexico, including
facilities
all toll transportation
and maintaining
roads, bridges and ferries.
8.
The Board consists of the following six members, or their
representatives:Secretary of Public Works, Secretaryof Communications,
Secretary of Finance, Secretaryof National Properties,and Members
/ and Mexican Roads Association.
selectedby the Banco Nacional Hipotecario
The Presidentand the Vice-Presidentare named from members of
9.
the Board by the Presidentof the Republic, in accordancewith the legislation coveringPublic Authorities. At present the President is the
Secretary of Public Works and the Vice-Presidentis the Secretaryof ComAlthough "Caminos y Puentes" is autonomousin form, its polimunications,
cies, programs, and capital and operatingbudgets are subjectto approval
of the Governmentthrough its representativeson the Board. An external
is appointed by the Ministry of National Properties,also in
auditor
accordancewith the legislationcovering Public Authorities.
The Authority is managed by a General Director appointedby
10.
respectivelyin charge
four divisions
the Board; the organizationincludes
of Operations,Administration,Maintenance and Equipment. (See Figure 1).
The presidentialdecree settingup the Authority also states that the
contracting
in charge of designing,
of Public IJorks is directly
Secretariat
of toll roads and bridges which upon
the construction
and supervising
Toll rates are proposed by
are turned over to the Authority.
completion
with
decree,
after consultation
the Board, and approved by a presidential
of
within the Secretariat
Tariffs,
an Advisory Commission on Transportation
Communications.
1/
Urbano y de Obras Publicas,
Banco Nacional Hipotecario
of the Federal Government.
an institution
-3 -
11.
All the toll roads and bridges continue to rena-.n "national
properties".
The application
of tolls is not limited to any fixed period
of paying off the cost of the investment.
It is specifical
r intended
that tolls
will continue to provide substantial
funds for th3 construction
of further toll facilities.
B. Present Scope of Activities
12.
The facilitiespresently in operationconsist of four sections
of toll roads, five toll bridges and three river ferries. The toll roads
already cover two major routes out of Mexico City, one of 170 Im length
to the south area through Cuernavaca,Amacuzac and Iguala towards Acapulco,
and the other of 200 km length to the northwestthrough Palmillas,Queretaro
and Apaseo.
toll
(See Map 2).
road to Cuernavaca,
The design standards
but the two-lane
toll
are good on the four-lane
road to Queretaro
is already
overcrowded during peak hours particularly
because of the high percentage
of trucks and trailers
that travel this route.
13.
Trafficstudiesindicatethat thesetoll highwaysattractabout
two-thirdsof the trafficbetweenpointsservedwhile one-thirdgoes on
the freeroads. (SeeTable I). The annualgrowthin traffichas averaged
10% per year,over the roadnetworkin Mexicowith somewhathigherrates
on the tollroads,especiallyduringthe firstthree or fouryears of
operation.
14.
The operation and maintenance of these roads is satisfactory.
The annual expenditure for maintenance has been about US$730 equivalent
per km on the four-lane roads.
The construction
and operation of the
various bridges and river ferries for which the Authority is responsible
also appearsto be soundand satisfactory.
C. FinancialPositionand Earnings
15.
The followingcomparisonof balancesheetitemssumarizes
the financialhistoryof the Authoritysinceits creation:
-4
Net fixed assets
(Net investmnent in roads and
bridges included in above)
Works in progress
assets
Excess current assets
current liabilities
12/31/60
10/31/61
- -
359
35
370
42
459
50
324
328
409
(323)
(325)
(346)
43
142
-
5
216
7
23
-
_
390
475
632
390
1423
454
- -- kMex4
0009)
b
Assets
Gross fixed assets
Accumulated depreciation
Deferred
12/31/59
over
Total assets
Capital and Liabilities
Government contribution
reserves
and
Debt
-
Deferred liabilities
Excess current liabilities
-
2
-
124
3
-
50
51
390
475
632
over current
assets
Total capital
The audited balance
& liabilities
sheet as of December 31, 1960 is reproduced
in Table 6.
16.
Since 1959 fixed assets have increased by about 30,%due to the
commissioning, mainly in 1961, of several new bridges and ferries and the
procurement, also in 1961, of Mex$556 million worth of construction equipment for rental to other Goverrment agencies and contractors.
Works in
progress have increased considerably with the construction of important
works which are expected to be commissioned in 1962.
17.
In 1959 all assets, including an excess of current assets over
current liabilities,
were covered by the Government's contribution to
capital,
representing
the value of the assets taken over by 1Carminos
y
Puentes" at the time of its creation.
Since then reserves have been built
up through retention of profits.
Goverrnment capital and reserves have increased from Mex4 390 million in 1959 to Mex, 454 million on October 31,
1961 and about Mex$ 461 million on December 31, 1961, However, because
-
5 -
of the large amount of works undertaken,the coverage of assets by the
Government'soriginal contributionand reserveshas fallen tc 72%, with
the balance financed out of medium and short-termcredits from the Banco
Hipotecarioand suppliers.
18.
The largest part of this debt (about Mek,;130) is owed to the
Banco Hipotecario. The M4inisterof Finance gave assurance that there would
be no difficulty
in extendingthe maturitiesof this debt to 6 years, which
would necessitateyearly payments to the Banco Hipotecario of about Mex$ 21
million. This level of payments has been assumed in the financialanalysis
of this report.
19.
follows:
Revenue and expenses over the past three years have been as
1959
- -
1960
Estimate
(Mex$ 0o00,00__
Toll receipts
Cost of maintenance,repairs,
operationand administration
39.9
45.8
56.o
3.8
5.8
9.8
Net operatingreceipts
36.1
40.0
46.2
Depreciation:
roads and bridges
equipment
8.1
.3
7.3
.5
7.7
.9
Total depreciation
8.4
7.8
8.6
Net operatingincome
Non-operating
incomeand
equipmentrentals
27.7
32,2
37.6
1.1
.9
.3
Surpluscreditedto reserves
28.8
33.1
37.9
1961
20.
At the end of 1960 grossfixedassetsamountedto Mex$ 370
million. Those assetsproducedin 1961 net operatingreceiptsbefore
depreciation
of aboutHex$ 46 million. (Thenew fixedassetsaddedin 1961
includingequipmentfor rentaldid not yet produceany substantial
revenue
in that year), If thoseassetswere to produceconstantannualnet receipts
of Mexs;46 million, the investment
would be paid off in 30 years with a
grows
return of 12% or in 11 years with a return of 6%. However, if traffic
as expected and tariffs
and costs remain constant,
the average return over
life of the assets would probably exceed 12%. Works now in
the reasonable
in 1962 and 1964 are
and which are scheduled to start operating
progress
at least as satisfactory
as that
expected to yield a return on investment
on existing investments.
21.
Experience
to date clearly
indicates
the high return which can
be expected on investment
in toll facilities
in Mexico.
The Authority
Although
structure.
responsible
for the toll roads has a sound financial
at present the current asset position
appears inadequate,
this can be
easily modified through the arrangement of proper financing
as new works
are carried out.
IV. THE PROJECT
22.
In 1961 the Mexican Government,through the "Caminosy Puentes
FederalesAuthority" requested the Bank's assistancein financing an extensive program of toll facilities. However, in the course of discussions
with the Secretaryof Public IWorksand the Secretary of Finance, it was
agreed that the execution of its entirety in three years would result in
too great a financialburden for the country. Furthermore,some sections
of the new roads might be competingwith existing railways, and it was
agreed that more studies of the possible competitionbetween road and railway traffic in these areas have to be made before these roads are carried
out in a second phase (see AppendixA).
A.
Description
of the
Project
The present project consistsof three toll roads, five bridges
23.
and
and a ferry.
One road and four bridges are already under construction,
the Bank loan would apply to the works to be executedfor the period NJov.1,
1961 through 1964, the cost of wlich amounts to about Mex$ 842 million
(US$67.4million equivalent).
a) The Toll Roads
24.
The toll roads proposed are the first stages of two major routes
out of Mexico City, to the east in the directionof Orizaba and Vera Cruz,
and to the north in the directionPachuca;and the Tijuana-Ensenadaroad,
an important tourist
route south of the U.S. border in Baja California.
road on the route east of Mexico City,
25.
The Nexico City-Orizaba
comprisestwo different sections:Mexico City-Pueblaand Puebla-Orizaba.
26.
The Mexico-Pueblasection (four-lane111 km) was started in
January 1960. It runs to the east through the heavily industrialsuburb
around Santa Martha and will provide the capital with a new link to the
important industrialcity of Puebla (about 300,000 pop.). The present
road follows a difficultroute traversinga very mountainousarea. The
section on the outskirts of Mexico City will offer two access interchange
systemswithin a distance of a few kin,in order to serve freely the important industriesof the area. The third interchangeat 92 km will serve
- 7-
the city of Texmelucan,and also provide a connectionto the TexmelucanOcotoxco road. Two interchangesare also under constructionin the neighborhood of the city of Puebla. The entire section is scheduledto be
completedby mid-1962.
27.
The Puebla-Orizabasection (two-lanetoll road - 140 kIn) would
link Puebla to the rich agriculturaland industrialarea of Orizaba and
Cordoba, and further to the new developingregions of Tresvalles,Papaloapan
and the port of Vera Cruz.
28.
Most of the existingroad has a 7.20 meter pavement and is well
maintained. From Puebla to Tecamachalco,it traverses a flat plateau and
serves a few relatively small towns, From Tecamachalcoto Orizaba it follows
a long circuitousroute through Tehuacan and Acultzingowinding through a
very high pass with a continuousgrade of 10% to 14% on a stretch of about
18 km, entailing
great hardship
for trailer
and truck traffic.
29.
The first 40 km of the new toll road from Puebla to Tecamachalco,
running through the plateau,
will be parallel
to and a short distance
from
the existing
road.
This section has been included in the project
for a
number of reasons:
i) traffic
has been building up at a rate substantially
beyond expectation
on the parts of the first
section
recently
opened to
service,
which indicate
that saturation
on the Puebla-Tecamachalco
free road
might be reached before the present progran is completed;
ii) the following
section,Tecamachalco-Orizaba,
is justified as mentioned below and included'
in the project and a gap of 40 km between two sections of a toll road would
be a hindrance to the through traffic; iii) the cost of building the whole
road would be lower while constructionis being carried out at the same time.
On the 100 km from Tecamachalcoto Orizaba,the new road, running through
another valley,
would shorten the driving distance
by 35 km and lower the
maximum grade from 14% to 5%. This would result
in very substantial
savings
for the users and justifies
the inclusion
of this section in the program.
30.
The first
stage of the Mexico City-Pachuca
road will run from
Mexico City to Venta de Carpio (four-lane- 32 km). It traverses relatively
flat terrain
in the outskirts
of the Capital and passes through the rapidly
developing
industrial
area north of the city.
The present
road is narrow
(6 m wide) and difficult
to improve.
Traffic
is very heavy and growing
rapidly because of the development taking place in this area which also includes a new international
airport.
At the end of this section of the road
there will be an access leading to the road to Teotihuacan,the most important touristic center in the Mexico City area. This road has also be included in the project.
31.
The Tijuana-Ensenadaroad (102 km) will be located in the upper
part of the Baja California
area, close to the border of the United States.
Tijuana is a lively border-towndevelopingrapidly. Itspopulation(160,000)
has nearly doubled during the past 10 years. The present road south from
- 8 -
Tijuana is narrow and winding (6.20 m wide) branching cut, either along
the coast or the inland hills, to Rosarito El Sauzal and Ersenada (60,000
population),a relativelyimportantport. This road is overcrowded especially on weekendsand holidays,with many American tourists coming from
San Diego and SouthernCalifornia.
32.
The new four-laneroad would be located entirelyalong the coast;
by the local authorthe first
section
(Tijuana-Rosarito
27 kim) was started
ities
of Baja California
two years ago but could not be completed because
of a shortage of funds.
The earthworks
and a section of pavement are completed.
The second part (Rosarito-LaMision 36 km) will follow the present
road with higher design standards,on the slopes of the plateaus. The
third section (La Mlision-ElSauzal 32.3 kIn)will serve a new tourist area,
along the coast branching away from the existingroad which winds through
the mountainous inland terrain. The new road will again join the old road
at the little fishing center of El Sauzal. The last section (El SauzalEnsenada 9 kn) traversesa relativelybuilt-up area where many housing programs are in progress. Two main tourist centers in Popotlanand Santa Rosa
and severalother trailer camps and tourist areas, have been projected along
the coast and will be linked with the expresswaythrough interchangesystems.
b) Access Roads and Other Works
33.
The Governmentappreciatesthat adequate access and approachroads
are essential to the successof these expressways.
34.
In the Mexico City area, the constructionor improvementof the
urban or suburbanavenues leading to the new toll roads have been designed
and partly undertakenby the Federal District Public Works Administration,
out of its own budget. Furthermore,according to Governmentpolicy, a
certain number of access roads must be constructedor reconstructedin the
areas servedby the new toll roads; these works must be financedby "Caminos
y Puentes FederalesAuthority",though these access roads would produce
only indirectrevenuesby increasingthe accessibilityof the toll roads.
35.
After their completion,they will become part of the federal
highway network and will be maintainedby the Public Works Administration.
The present project includesfour such roads costing about 10% of the total
cost of the project: La Pera-Cuautla(37 kin)access road to the existing
Temnelucan-Ocotoxco(40 km) access
toll expresswayto Mexico-Cuernavaca;
road to Mexico-Pueblaexpressway;Ciudad Serdan-Esperanza(20 km) access
expressway;Venta de Carpio-Teotihuacan(25 km)
road to Tecamachalco-Orizaba
These roads, designed to
access road to Mexico-Venta de Carpio expressway.
standards,
will complement the toll roads and benefit
acceptable
two-lane
regions not immediately
contiguous
to them. 1/
/ During negotiations,the "CaminosAuthority" stated that for an initial
period tolls would be charged on two access roads (La Pera-Cuautlaand
Venta de Carpio-Teotihuacan).During this period the Authoritywould be
responsiblefor the operation and maintenanceof these two access roads.
- 9 -
36.
The project also includesa modest amount of miscellaneous
equipment (electronicdevices for traffic control, signal panels, etc.)
as well as the constructionof some toll gates.
c) The Toll Bridges
i) CoatzacoalcosBridge
37.
The estuary of the Rio Coatzacoalcos,in the southernpart of
the Gulf of Mexico, will be crossed by a 960 m bridge, a few kms south
of the city of Coatzacoalcos. This bridge (12.80 m total width) on the
important route Mexico-VeraCruz - Puerto Juarez will offer improvedaccess
to the easternpart of MIexico(states of Tabasco, Campeche,Yucatan and
QuintanaRoo). It is to carry a large sidewalk, a two-lane roadway and a
rail track. As the Rio Coatzacoalcosprovides an entrance channel about
30 feet deep to an importantinland oil port (refineryand chemicalplants),
steel truss of 66 m span giving a clearthe bridge is equipped with a lift
ance of 35 m above the water level.
38.
Construction
started
in 1959 and is nearing completion;
the
bridge is scheduled to be put in service in the middle of 1962. After
(lift
span, towers
competitive
bidding the steel structures
international
and are being assembledby the
and mechanical equipment) have been built
are being built by
German Firm M.A.N. All the concrete structures
YMexicancontractorsafter domesticcompetitivebidding.
39.
The bridge will replace two ferries,
one owned by the Southeast
Railways Company, the other privatelyowned, The Company has agreed to
pay an annual toll for its trains. According to the Mexican regulations
periods
are always limited to the date of construction
the ferry concession
of a bridge replacing
the ferry.
ii)
Culiacan
Bridge
Coast, the important
along the Pacific
4o.
In the state of Sinaloa,
of the
highway Mexico-Mogales crosses the Rio Humaya in the neighborhood
important
city of Culiacan on a ford several hundred meters long located
on the crest of a gravel dam. Rising waters during flood periods make the
crossing impossiblefor severalmonths of the year. At such times the
Pacific Railway Company allows the road users to drive, under very rough
conditions,across a railway bridge located about 500 m downstream. This
one-waybridge is nearly 700 m long and the crossingtrains (6 or 7 per day)
disrupt the road traffic for nearly an hour each time. In spite of these
limitations,the daily traffic is high (1,5G0v/per day, 40% of which are
in
of the new road bridge was started
The construction
buses and trucks).
and is scheduled to be
bidding,
April 1960, after domestic competitive
completed by mid-1962.
-
iii)
Alvarado
10
-
Bridge
4i.
This bridge is located at the eastern
exit of the city of
Alvarado,
near Vera Cruz, on the important
highway Mexico-Puerto
Juarez
through Coatzacoalcos.
It will replace a ferry at the outlet
of the
Papaloapanlagoon. The fishing port of Alvarado, inside the lagoon, only
receives small boats which could easily sail under the 20.00m clearance
of the bridge. However, in spite of the location near the important port
of Vera Cruz (40 ki) local authoritieshave assumed that Alvarado, after
appropriatedredging,ultimately in the future will receive ocean vessels.
For that purpose, one of the concrete spans is designed to be replaced
later, if necessary after some reinforcingworks, by a lifting steel truss.
Pile driving is under way on force account in every pier location; tenders
still
have not been called for the concrete structures,and will be called
through internationalcompetitivebidding.
iv) Caracol Bridge
42.
This bridge across the Rio Tonto was undertakenin 1961 to link
the city of Tuxtepecin Vera Cruz State to Ciudad Aleman and the port of
Vera Cruz. The area is denselypopulated and developed. When the mission
visited the bridge, the piles were precast and were scheduled to be driven
in the followingmonths. A contract for the whole constructionof the
bridge has been awarded, on the basis of domestic bidding.
v) PapaloapanBridge
43.
This new project is located between the two towns of Papaloapan
and Ciudad Aleman on the banks of the Rio Papaloapan. The developingagricultural area extends eastward over a large area according to a program
involving a number of dams and irrigationworks. The largest part of the
fruit
and perishable
products are transported
by trucks to Vera Cruz and
M4exicoCity. On the route these productstravel, the Papaloapanbridge will
replace a slow and inefficientbarge; it will support a two-lane road, over
a total length of 344m. The work will be awarded through international
competitive
bidding.
d) The La Paz-M4azatlan
Ferry
44.
Inadequate
communication with the mainland has been one of the
chief impedimentsto the economic developrment
of the peninsula of Baja
California. This part of Mexico, still administeredas a federal territory,
needs to be integratedinto the rest of the country. The developmentof its
agricultural,fishing, and tourist resources, started only a few years ago,
is progressingrapidly. The constructionof a 1,150 km transpeninsular
highway coming from the north has been started but will require some 20 years
for completionat the rate yearly budgetary appropriationsare now made.
- n1 -
On the other hand, the junction of the south-end of the peninsula
45.
and gives the
to the continent by ferry would immediately be profitable
network. Therefore, the
necessary link with the continental transportation
Mexican Government has been considering a ferry service between La Paz, the
and Mazatlan, the nearest well-equipped port
main city in Baja California,
The sailing distance is about 250 nautical miles.
shore.
on the continental
On the basis of a 16-hour crossing, the service would consist of three roundtripsa week.
merchant marine
Mexicohas a very limitedavailable
Presently,
46.
or five old
four
on
carried
is
area
and all the coastwise trade in this
two days
least
at
take
and
irregular
very
are
converted LST's. The trips
one way.
The trafficof the port of La Paz has increasedduringthe past
47.
few years;it totaled130,000T in 1961. In the Mazatlanarea,an important
tourist trade is also developing, a part of whichwill extendno doubt to
Baja California as soon as an overnight trip for cars and people is possible
in La Paz induced by air
across the Gulf. The present tourist activity
is already sizeable.
transportation
in Mazatlan will be constructed inside
The terminal facilities
48.
againstthe swelland
the present port area, whichoffersadequateprotection
a parking
will consistof a pier with an accessrampto the ferry(bordering
area),variousofficesand toll gates. In La Paz,the presentporttsenthe
tranceconsistsof dangerousnarrowscloseto the bay shore. Therefore,
of the
withthe suggestion
ferry'sterminalwill be located,in accordance
in the very deep, well protected bay of Pichilingue,
Navy Administration,
The construction of a 12 Im access road
a short distance east of the city.
from the city of La Paz is included in the project.
of the
A thorough study of the requirements and possibilities
49.
who is in charge
new ferryhavebeen made by a qualifiednavalarchitect,
of the FerryDivisionin the "Caminosy Puentes"staff, afterhavingvisited
nearly a hundred ferries and shipyards throughout the world in 1960-61. Three
sizes and types of ships with a capacity of about 50, 75, and 100
different
of each justicarswere considered.A studyof the economicsand operations
fies the choiceof a shipof 100-carcapacity.The shipwouldbe about280
feet long,49 feet wide and 15 feetdraft. Availablewave recordsshowthat
fins
rollingstabilizer
while the swell(maximum3.50 m) is not dangerous,
vehicles
wouldbe advisableto avoidthe necessityof a thoroughfasteningof
on board.
and Specifications
B. DesignStandards
a) RoadStandards
The same design standards will be used as for the existing toll
5o.
(See Table 2). They are adequate and similar to expressway
expressways.
design standards in other countries; in mountainous areas, the design speed
-
12 -
and minimum sight distancehave been reduced particularlyon the two-lane
road Tecamachalco-Orizaba,
because of a very rough terrain.
b) Bridge Standards
5l.
The Bridge design standardsand specificationsare those of the
Public Works Administration,which are generally derived from U.S. specifications.
(See Table 3), The design loading standard
on the five toll
bridges is H15-S12 1/. On the five bridge projects comparativestudies
between different
alternatives
have justifiedthe choice of prestressed
concrete structuresdue to the size of spans which are involved,except for
the mobile span on Coatzacoalcos. On this latter mixed road - railway
bridge, the deck consistsof two independentprestressedconcrete spans
supported
side by side on the same piers;
only the mobile steel truss will
provide joint passage to both.
c) Ferry
Specifications
52.
The ferry is to be built under the regulations
and supervision
of Lloyd's Register
of Shippingand is to comply with the rules of the 1960
internationalconventionfor safety of life at sea, both for full ocean
passenger service.
53.
The capacity and the specifications
(see Table 1) have been defined according
to the amount and the nature of the expectedtraffic. The
capacity will be 100 normal size cars with 13 square meters per car, with
a clearanceon the car deck of 4.20 meters in order to be able to carry all
kinds of vehicles. The ship will be a bow and stern loader; the doors will
be operated hydraulicallyand will be completelywatertight.
54.
The deck will be calculatedto withstand concentratedloads of
10 metric tons, and in order to increasethe capacityof the ship two retractable tween decks, hydraulicallyoperatedwill be fitted at the sides.
55.
The passengers'accomodationsare planned for 500passengers
(50first class and 100 tourist class state rooms, a third class protected
saloon with reclining
seats
air-conditioned
throughout,
for 350 persons,
etc.).
dining
room, cafeterias,all
56.
The ship will be equipped with two slow speed diesel engines
with a total power of about 6,000H.P., giving her a speed of 17 knots,
1/ H15-S12 assumes a load of 15 short tons (13,600 kg) on the two axles
of the tractor and 12 tons (10,880 kg) on the dual axles of the trailer,
i.e.,,atotal load of 2h,500 kg.
- 13 -
57.
All the devices for improving securityand maneuverabilitywill
be specified: electric hydraulic steerinCgear, traverse-tunneland bow
propeller, stablizerfins, automatic control of the watertightbow and stern
doors, etc.
C, Status of Engineering
a) Roads and Bridges
for the planning and
The Ministry
of Public Works is responsible
58.
construction
of the toll roads and bridges,
through its two divisions
of:
i) Projects
and Laboratories,
and ii) Highway Construction.
These two
are staffed with about 300 engineers and technicians. There are
divisions
the organization
and the quality
of the staff are
clear lines of authority;
and design
materials-testing
The laboratories,
efficient
and adequate.
sections
are well-equipped,
and the planning,
design, execution,
and supervision of road works are satisfactory.
59.
With respect to the toll roads and toll bridges included in the
have
all the studies and designs of works already under construction
project
been carried out on the basis of sound engineeringstandards.
in 1959, is nearly comThe toll section Mexico-Puebla,
started
60.
actual quantitiesand prices are firm and a spot check made of
pleted;
data available in the ConstructionDivision has shown a general increase
in the original cost estimate of J0O compared to the estimate made in 1959
by the Projects
Division.
direction
lines have
the relevant
61.
For the remaining sections,
been staked in the field and the studiesand designs are being prepared
for tenders;
about 80% of this work has been completed.
The present estimateof costs (Table 5) has been made on the
62.
basis of a cost per km of road broken down into each relevant
item of work;
drainage,
subbase, base, pavement, fences, median
earthmoving,
right-of-way,
In each section of the road,
and interchanges.
equipment, bridges
strip,
the figures have been estimated accordingto the importanceand type of the
earthworksinvolved and to the selectedtype of subbase,base and pavement
The unit prices used are derived from recent bids on
which will be used.
by its
cost has been estimated
and the right-of-way
work in the same areas,
will take
relation
to the density of housing in the area where construction
place.
spot checks have been made by the mission on those
Two additional
63.
parts of the project
where the design work is most advanced and is nearly
ready for tender. In these cases the estimates based on actual computed
quantitiesand recent bidding prices showed that the selectedprices used
-
14 -
per km have been conservative.
As a result
that the cost estimatesused in this report
ation of the project,
of this the mission
are a reliable
basis
believes
for evalu-
64.
The costs of the bridges are based on actual tenders and/or
complete studies and designs. The studies have been carried out after
thoroughrainfall investigationsand geologicalstudies during which borings were drilled at projected pier locations. The cost of CuliacanBridge
has been increasedby the cost of a new access road and viaduct on the city
side, which was previouslyto be financedout of the local budget of the
City of Culiacan.
b) Ferry
65.
The estimate of the ferry results from various tentativefree
tenders sent to the Mexican Administration,
without commitment, by a few
American and European shipyards. Notwithstandingthis, the ferry will be
purchased through a new international
competitive
bidding.
The present
estimate includes in additionto the average purchase cost (US$2,870,000)
to cover the various
expenses for the delivery
trip,
insuran allocation
ances, crew's return trip, various fees and overhead. It has also been
by competent and experiagreed that Mlexican Engineers would be assisted
of
enced
consultants
for supervision
of the designing
and construction
the ferry.
The estimate of terminal facilities
in La Paz and Mazatlan
have been calculated
on the basis of preliminary
studies
in these two ports.
D.
66.
Cost Estimates of the Project
The cost
ject was estimated
Hex$ 700 million.
of road
supervision
works included in the present proof the construction
by the "Caminos y Puentes Federales
de Ingresos" t at
In this amount is allocated10% to cover engineeringand
and bridge construction
by the Public Works Department.
have been
The preliminary
studies and designs of the project
67.
thoroughlycarried out (see sectionC above) and the cost estimates appear
reasonable. Neverthelessadditionalcontingenciesshould be includedto
cover unforeseen events such as heavy rains, slides, settlementsof fills,
For the above reasons, an
increases in the cost of right-of-way,etc.
additionalphysical contingencyallowance of 10% has been included in the
cost 1/ of the project which now amounts to I4ex3$ 772.4 million (see Table 5).
2/
This allowance has been raised up to 20% on the access
La Pera-Cuautla,
where the studies are less advanced.
road
-
-
15
68,
Since 1957, wholesale prices in Mexico have increased at an
average rate of 2.75% per year, Prices of constructionmaterials have
tended to rise somewhatfaster (3,75% per year), and some wage increases
should be expected during the constructionperiod. Therefore an average
price increase of say 5% a year might be a reasonable expectation. In
view of the fact that contracts will be negotiated over a period of time,
it appears advisableto apply a price contingencyfactor of 5%, 10%, and
15% to expendituresin the first, second, and third years, respectively,
giving a total price contingencyof Mex$ 70 million.
69.
On the basis of the foregoingassumptionsthe sumarized estimates would be as follows (in millions of Mex$):
Total
Construction
Cost
Remaining
Expenditure as
Engineer- Total
ing Cost Cost
of Nov.l/6 1
Project Cost
(inc. 10%
physical
contingency)
Roads under
construction
220.0
73?25
7.32
80.57
88.57
Bridges under
construction
106,9
43.6
4,36
47,96
52.75
Other toll roads
388.0
388,0
38.80
426.80
469,50
6,0
6.o
o.6o
6.60
7,20
62,8
62,8
6.28
69,08
78.40
54,8
54,8
2.70
57,50
63.30
l0p5
10.5
1.o5
11.55
12,70
Othertollbridges
Access roads
Perry and Terminals
Miscellaneous
equipment
Total
Price
700.o6
Contingencies
772.42
70.00
Grand Total
812.42
(US$67.4 million
equivalent)
E. Award and ProcurementProcedures
70.
Internationalcompetitivebidding would be used in all cases,
except for: i) works on roads and bridges valued at Mex$ 145 million for
which contracts have already been let on the basis of domesticbidding and
- 16 -
for works done or to be done by force account,and ii) some minor works for
which internationalcompetitivebidding is not practicable. The principal
provisionsof this procedure for the awarding of contracts to contractorsof
roads and bridgeswould be:
i)
sent
to all
representatives
fication
Invitations
for prequalification
of contractors
lwould be
(and Switzerland)
having diplomatic
Bank member countries
in Mexico.
ii)
Ample time would be given
documents and for the submission
for the submission
of bids.
of prequali-
iii)
Each section of the project for which bids would be
invited would cover works of a minimum value of Mex$)25 million
except
in cases in which the work to be done cannot reasonably
be included in
a contract
of this size.
iv) A reasonableproportionof prequalifiedforeign conof the total number of firms to be invited,
tractors (at least one-third
to participate
in each
which is usually about 12), would be invited
bidding.
F.
Local and Foreign
Currency
Components of Cost
71.
The Ministry of Public WJorks has furnished
a complete analysis
of the estimated
foreign currency component in all the items of work included in the various roads, bridges and the ferry in the project.
The
Mexican Authorities
have also requested
that interest
during construction
should be included in the requested
loan which might be agreed upon since
the returns
from the new toll facilities
will not be available
until
the
works are completed.
a summary of the analysis
shows the
72.
Under the above assumptions
followingaverage foreign exchange cost for the different types of work,
i.e., countingdepreciationon all importedequipment, spare parts, cost of
steel and other importedmaterials and overhead of foreign contractors1/:
1/ Foreign contractorsare assumed to carry out 25% of the total
is
contract
work.
The average overhead of a contractor
estimated to 8%.
- 17 -
Foreign
Amount
Roads
Currency
Local Currency
Total
%
Amount
%
- - (Mex'.000,000) - - - - - - -
229.0
36.1
407.5
63.9
636.5
Bridges
24.2
40.3
35.8
59.7
60o0
Ferry
42.1
Terminals
10.5
50
Miscelaneous
Equipment
12.4
98
Total
100
318.2
-
42.1
lo.6
50
21.1
0.3
2
12.7
-
41.3
45h.2
58.7
772.4
Price Contingency
29.1
40.9
70.0
Interest during
Construction
34.0
(i)
34.0
Total
381.3
(US'Q30.5
million
G.
495.1
876.4
equivalent)
Phasing of ConstructionExpendituresand Foreign Component Cashflow
73.
In the scheduledannual breakdownbetween the different items
of works, apportioningforeign currency on the basis of the appropriate
percentageto each item shows that the overallpercentageof 1.3% can
also be applied with less than a l% margin of error to the expenditures
in each individualyear, so that the foreign and local expendituremay be
consideredto progressproportionately. It is proposedthat the withdrawal
of the loan be made on a percentagebasis for the projects such as roads,
bridges or terminals,which are to be carried out by several contractors.
Disbursementfor the ferry and miscellaneousequipment (accountingdevices,
etc.) would be made on the basis of actual import cost. The above table
indicates the relevant percentagesof each type of project. The interest
on the foreign currencyloan during constructionwould also be disbursed as
required.
74.
Under the above assumptionsthe summary table followingindicates
in round figures the estimatedannual and total requirementsfor the project:
NOTE: (i) Intereston local currencyloans is not to be capitalized.
-
18 -
Nov. 1961Dec. 1962
(14 mos.)
-
-
1963
1964
Total
- -
- - (Mex$ 000,000)
-
-
Construction Expenditures
Price Contingency
Total Estimated Cost
268
14
287
29
-3
322
16
217
27
24
772
70
Local Currency Expenditure
166
186
143
495
Foreign Currency Expenditure
Foreign Interest-during-Construction
Total Foreign Currency Required
116
130
13
1=0
T1-
101
17
1165
347
34
7
US$JEquivalent of Foreign Currency
Requirement (000,000)
9.6
1L.4
9.5
30.5
4
V. FINANCIMG OF PROJECT
A. Financial Scheme
A tentative cashflow showing a plan for financingthe project
75.
is producedin Table 7 and sunmarizedbelow:
November 1961
through 1961
Souirceof Funds
(Mex4000,000)
Initial wqorkingcapital (current
assets less current liabilities)
Cash from operationof toll facilities
-5
364
Localcurrencyloan
500
Proposed Bank loan
381
Total funds available
Investmentin the project
Other works
Replacementof equipment,repairs, etc.
Debt service
Totaluse of funds
Working capital
at end of period
1,240
876
10
54
245
1,185
55
-
19 -
76.
Foreign currency expenditure
in the amount of Mex; 381 million
(US$ 30.5 million equivalent),includinginterest during construction,is
assumed to be financed entirelyby a proposedBank loan. In addition the
Governmenthas given assurancesthat it would authorize
a loan of Mex" 500
million from the Government-ownedBanco HipotecarioUrbano y de Obras
Publicas,which is representedon the Board of the Caminos Authority. A
local currency loan of this amount has been included in the financial analysis in this report.
77.
The cashflowassumes that the working capital,which has been
negative over the past two years and amounted to minus Mex$ 5 million as
of October 31, 1961, will be raised to about Mex$ 55 million.
78.
Debt service has been computedon the basis of the following
indicationsgiven by the Minister of Finance: i) the present short and
medium term debt to the Banco Hipotecariowould be extended, so as to
be repaid over six years; ii) the iAexQ500 million Banco Hipotecarioloan
would have a life of 10 years (repaymentis assumed to be made in equal
installmentsfrom 1965 through 1971); and iii) the interestrate is likely
to be 10%. The proposed Bank loan is assumed at 5-3/4% interestwith a
2 0-year
life includinga 3-year grace period. Debt to be servicedalso
includesMexs$45 million suppliers'credits
repayable through 1966.
79,
The cashflow assumes that no further works will be undertaken
nor any additional
debt incurred until 1967.
Under such circumstances
the Authority'sprojected cash resources
would be used for the project
and
to cover debt service through 1966. Any new works undertaken in 1965 or
1966 would have to be financed entirelyby borrowing,but there would be
a substantialand rapidly increasingcash surplus from 1967 on, which could
then be used for direct financingof further
works.
80.
The calculationof estimateddebt service is given in Table 8.
It shows that the Authority would be able to service debt of the magnitude assumed in the calculations.
During the construction
period the debt
service
ratio would be about 1.5. It would fall to 1.1 in 1965 because of
a concentrationof payments in that year, but would rise afterwardsto 1.3,
l.4
1.8 and 2.1 in the following four years. It would reach 9 in 1972 if
no further debt were incurred. Interest would be covered an average of 2.5
times over the period 1962-68, and the coverage would never fall below 1.6.
B. Toll Rates and FinancialReturns
81.
The "Caminosy Puentes Federales Authority"has proposed to
retain on the various facilities
a table of tolls and fares adjusted to the
nature of traffic and the operating
cost on the roads.
The toll would average about US¢0.5 to 0.9 per vehicle-kmfor passenger cars (1.6 on TijuanaEnsenada),1.4 to 1.8 for trucks, 1.0 to 1.8 for buses. These rates are
- 20
-
realistic,and the apportioningof 66, or 75% of total traffic on the new
toll roads as discussedbelow can reasonablybe expected, even if they had
to be slightlyincreased.
According to the informationreceived, the approvalof these
82.
In addition firm assurtoll rates should not meet any special difficulty.
to have
ances regardingtoll level have been obtained during negotiations,
steps to cause adjustments
"Caminos" and the Government take all necessary
in the toll charges from time to time to provide funds sufficientto cover
surplus
and create a reasonable
and debt service,
expenses
all operating
for expansion.
has been preof the income account for each facility
A forecast
83.
The unamortized balance for a
practice.
to the Authority's
pared according
at the end of each year is derived from the unamorparticulartoll facility
tized balance at the start of this year plus 6% interest,plus operating
and maintenancecost, less the operatingrevenues of the year. On the basis
of the assumed traffic growth which appears reasonable,(see para. 88 belowi)
and applying the proposed scale of toll tariffs all the facilitieswill
repay their full investmentcost in periods of A to 20 years, as summarized
in the table below. As an illustrativeexample, the detailedtable of financial returns is given in Table 12 for one of the toll roads (Mexico-Ventade
Carpio).
Summary of FinancialRevenues From Tolls
(Mex$ 000,000)
Annual toll
Annual
Total
original operating rev. in the
invest- cost in the first
Amortization
period at
6% interest
ment 2
first year
year
276.1
184.8
73.7
2o4.7
3.25
2.2
31.7
15.3
8.9
28.9
CoatzacoalcosBridge
CuliacanBridge
Alvarado Bridge
Caracol Bridge
PapaloapanBridge
73.7
16.8
25.7
5.2
7.o
o.44
0.12
o.15
O.08
0.08
7.2
1.2
4.o
0.6
14
12
8
20
1
Mazatlan-La Paz Ferry
and Terminals
57.5
.86
9.72
12 years
MEXICO-ORIZABA
Mexico-Puebla
Puebla-Orizaba
DE CARPIO
MEXICO-VENTA
TIJUANA-ENSENADA
1.47
2.91
0.4
13 years
20 years
14 years
9 years
years
years
years
years
years
revenues from the two access
This table does not include the additional
net revenuesfrom these two
Hlowever
and
Cuautla.
Teotihuacan
to
roads
roads have been includedin the cashflowtable (Table 7).
to the
2/ The above estimatesinclude the cost of the access roads related
toll roads.
I/
- 21 -
VI.
A.
Traffic
TECHNICALJUSTIFICATION OF PROJECT
Level
84.
A thorough study of past, present, and future traffic in the
by the new facilities,and a considerationof the principal
areas affected
geometric characteristics
of the existing and proposed roads and bridges has
been carried
out as a basis for assessing
their respective
capacities
to
The design standards
volumes.
carry the present and probable future traffic
in each case have been based on this work,
a) Traffic Records
85.
The Mexican Public Works Administrationhas carried out excellent
traffic studies since 1959. Traffic counts covering one week periods have
been made at selectedpoints on the principal highways throughoutMexico,
two or three times each year. They provide a reliable guide to the number
These studies,
for example,
of cars, trucks and buses using the highways.
indicate that the proportionof commercialvehicles is particularyhigh
(about 60%) in the Mexico City area.
These records, however,are not sufficientlycompleteas of the
86.
The daily
present to provide peak hourly volumes as a basis for design.
average traffic data, resulting from the above countingis, nevertheless,
sufficientto assess the present and future vehicle capacityrequirements,
In Table 9, an estimate has been made of the practical traffic volume capacity of the existingroutes to which the project toll roads will provide
alternateroutes. This table shows that all the existingroads are satuwhich
rated to date (over 100%), except the sectionTecamachalco-Orizaba,
is not used to capacity becauseof the very steep grades and sharp curves.
b) Traffic Growth
87.
The average traffic volume has increased rapidly in Mexico during
the past ten years. The annual growth amountedto about 7.5% in 1961 over
It is expected -that the future growth
(see figure 2).
the whole territory
rate in the areas servedby the toll roads particularlyaround Mexico City,
develurban and industrial
due to the extensive
would be higher than this,
opment taking place in the area.
88.
A special study has been made for each project by the Mexican
authoritiesbased on the increasesthat are taking place in the population
and in the number of vehiclesper capita. The growth in these factors has
been calculatedover the past ten years, in the areas at both ends of the
proposed roads or bridges,and adjustedto obtain what they believe is a
of the growth rate for 1960. For the
indication
relatively
conservative
future,
they have assumed that these annual rates of growth would be achieved
reaching within
in the first
year on the new roads and then decline lineally,
-
22 -
ten years, (1972),an annual average rate of growth of 5.6%. A long-term
growth rate of transport
traffic
of 5% to 6% is consideredby Mexican authorities
to be consistent
with the type of general economic development
which has taken place in the country and is expected for the future.
On the
present toll roads around Mexico City an average growth of 7% took place
in 1960, and the Toll Authority
assumes this rate will decrease to 5.6% on
these roads by 1972.
89.
On the proposed toll roads, the expected division
of traffic
between the toll roads and the free roads is based on the experience
of
the three existing
toll roads in the Mexico City area.
Table 1 shows that
for the past few years, the apportioning
of traffic
between the toll roads
and the existing
free highways to which the toll roads provide alternative
routes is at least two-thirdsto the toll roads, with the balance on the
free road.
The economic, physical and geographical
conditions
in the areas
of the new sections:
Mexico-Puebla
and Mexico-Venta de Carpio are not less
favorable
than those on the existing
toll roads and it appears reasonable
that the experience
on these roads can be used as a basis for the likely
traffic on the new roads.
90.
On the Puebla-Orizabasection,the present road followingthe
alignment through Tehuacan is on is only used to about 50% of its capacity.
However, since the new toll road would result
in a significant
shortening
in distance
and improvement of standards,
the Government authorities
felt
it reasonable
to assume that the new alignment would stimulate
the diversion
of traffic
from both the road through Tehuacan and another road through
Jalapa in the proportion
of 75% instead
of 66% of the total traffic
following
these routes in the first
year after the new road is completed.
This appears
to the Mission to be conservative
in the light of the operational
savings
expectedon the new road. (See para. 102).
91.
The Tijuana-Ensenada
road will permit American touriststo drive
south from Tijuana more conveniently
and speedily.
The existing
road is now
congested and dangerous for drivers accustomed to the highways of Southern
California
in the U.S. During the one year 1958, 383 accidents
occurred on
this 100 km road, resulting
in 638 injured and 46 dead.
92.
The traffic
on the new toll road during the first year after completion has been estimatedby the Governmentto be 75% of the existing
traffic.
But the Mexican authoritiesalso assume that it would double within three
years after opening the new toll facilities,i.e., about 1967, This rate
appears justified
by the number of American cars now entering
Tijuana which
varies from 225,000 to 275,000per month from winter to summer. This traffic
has been regularlyincreasingby 10% per year for the past three years.
According to a recent origin-destination
survey, the present daily traffic
to Ensenada is 2,400 cars per day from the U.S., out of a total daily traffic
of 3,000 vehicles. Consequently,the assumptionacceptedby the Mexicans
that traffic would double within three years means that in 1967 a total of
about 5,000 cars per day from the U.S. would drive further south, out of a
total 10,000 entering Tijuana. This appears to be an acceptableforecast,
-
23 -
provided new tourist and resort facilitiescontinueto be developed in the
area. The importanceof this improvementis recognizedby the Mexican authorities who have an extensivetourist developmentprogram for this area under
study.
c) Capacities
93.
The existing
traffic
levels and the traffic
volumes expected
roads but one to which the project
future indicate
that all the existing
traffic
volumes
routes are now carrying
roads would provide alternative
practical
limits;
unless the roads are constructed
than their estimated
by the end of the construction
gestion would reach serious proportions
in the
toll
higher
conperiod
in 1964.
94..
fornia
With respect to the
and the current traffic
ferry,
levels
of Baja Calithe economic potentiality
justify
the purchase of a ferry for 100
cars with a passenger capacity of 500 as indicated in Appendix C. The traffic
forecast further indicates that a second ship will probably be required within
six or seven years to meet the expected increases in trade and tourism across
this second ship would also provide greater security
the Gulf of California;
in meeting schedules in case of emergency. It is envisaged that this ferry
might be obtained after completion of the current program,
B.
Justification
of Proposed Design Standards
on Toll Roads
of the proposed toll roads
95.
The principal geometric characteristics
are based on the capacity necessary to cater for the expected traffic.
96.
The roads Mlexico-Puebla, Mlexico-Venta de Carpio and Tijuana-Ensenada
would consist of two asphalt concrete two-lane pavements with a median strip.
expected for the
Such roads shculd be capable of handling the growth of traffic
next twenty years.
97.
On the Puebla-Orizaba
section,the new tollhighwaywouldbe a twoterrain).
laneroad, consisting
of a pavement7.30m wide (6.70in mountainous
The practicalcapacitywouldbe 550 vh/hr.i.e.,about3,300vehiclesper day
including56/ocommercial
vehicles. Accordingto the trafficforecast,this
of the new road
mightbe reachedwithinten years;therefore,the right-of-way
on the terrain)to
has been designedto have a 60 m or 40 m width(depending
providefor construction
of a secondtwo-laneroadin the futurewhen it is
justifiedby trafficvolume.
C. Traffic
on Toll Bridges
For the toll bridges in the project the traffic estimate for 1960
98.
is based on the operating accounts of the existing ferries,
and on the road
traffic
counts in Culiacan.
The rate of traffic
growth does not include any
of trafficinducedby readditional increase for the factor of development
placingthe old ferriesby the new bridges. Therefore,the economicreturns
calculated
on the basisof thesetrafficdata (seepara.102) are rather
conservative.
-
VII.
A.
24
-
ECONOMICJUSTIFICATION OF PROJECT
Justificationof Traffic Forecast
and
assumed by the Mexican Authorities
100.
The growth in traffic
indicated in the table below appears to be justified in each case. The
regions to be served have all been growing rapidly and there is a reasonable
expectationthat economic developmentwill continue at a rapid pace. A
thorough study of the prospects has been made from data provided by the
Planning Divisionof the Public Works Department,and is summarizedin
Appendix A.
Level and Growth Rates
Estimated 1960 Annual Traffic
For Various Years 1961, 1964, 1967 and 1971
For Roads, Bridges and Ferry in Proposed Program
Project
Mexico Puebla
1960 Annual
Traffic Level Annual Growth Rates Assumed in %
in No. of
Vehicles
1961
1964
1967
1971
19126,000
9.5
8.5
7.4
5.9
Puebla-Orizaba
548o000
9.1
8.2
7*2
5.9
Tijuana-Ensenada
656,ooo
7.5
6.0
33.0
4,0
1,800,000
7.8
7.2
6.6
5.8
CoatzacoalcosBridge
407,000
8.6
7.8
7.0
5.9
CuliacanBridge
592,000
8.0
7.3
6.7
5.8
AlvaradoBridge
318,000
8.6
7.8
7.0
5.9
Caracol Bridge
50,000
8.6
7.8
7.0
5.9
PapaloapanBridge
63,000
8.6
7.8
7*0
5.9
MazatlanFerry
21,000
8.7
7.8
7e0
5.9
Mexico-Ventade Carpio
B.
Direct Economic Returns
on Roads and Bridges
A comparisonof road-user costs on old and new facilitieshas
101.
been made to provide a quantitativemeasure of the minimum benefitswhich
would accrue to the general economy from construction
of the projected
cost has been
The average vehicle operating
toll roads and toll bridges.
calculatedin Table 10, and the annual savings in operating
costs on the
-
25 -
new facilities,
on the basis of the traffic
projections
accepted
in Appendix B.
as explained
report,
have been estimated
in this
cash flow analysis
to the net annual benefits
102.
Applying a discounted
all
and incorporating
over an assumed economic life of about 25 or 30 years,
the cost of access roads leads to a
investment
including
of the capital
minimal statement
of the long-term economic return of the project.
These
results
have been summarized in the Table below.
There are naturally
certain
highway
prosuch
a
method
of
economic
appraisal
for
a
limitations
to using
projections
and
uncertainties
in both traffic
ject in view of the inherent
road-user
savings.
However, with the rather conservative
assumptions
used,
a minimum internal
rate of
indicate
all the proposed toll roads and bridges
return from road-user
savings alone of between 9% and 29% over the economic
life of the projects.
Economic Returns on Investments
(Mex$ 000,000)
Total l/
Original
Investment
Annual
Operating &
Maintenance
Cost in the
First
Year
Annual
Road-User
Benefitsin
the First
Annual Rate
of Economic
Return over
30 years
Year
MEXICO-ORIZABA
276.1
3.25
41.8
19%
184.8
2.22
38.0
20%
73.7
1.47
20.0
29%
204.7
2.91
18.('
10%
Bridge
Coatzacoalcos
73.7
0.44
6.5
12%
Culiacan Bridge
16.8
0.12
1.5
12%
AlvaradoBridge
25.7
0.15
3.5
15%
CaracolBridge
5.2
0.08
0.5
9%
Papaloapan Bridge
7.0
0.08
0.8
12%
Section
Mexico-Puebla
Puebla-Orizaba
MEXICO-Vtade CARPIO
TIJUANA-ENSENADA
NOTE: (1) The aboveestimatesinclude the costof the accessroads
relatedto the toll roads (seeAppendixB, paragraph lOa).
- 26 Special attentionmust be given to the Tijuana-Eisenadaroad, on
103.
which the traffic is 80% foreign. The user savings do not accrue to the
national economy as would be the case with the other facilities;however,
they represent an important stimulusfor tourists because of the convenience
of the new toll road as compared to the existing free highway. The calculated
return on this road, in terms of user savings as described above, results in
cannot be
lower than on the other roads because time saved by tourists
returns
However, the real benefit
valued as highly as time saved on other traffic.
economy is great if the daily expendifor Mexican national
from this facility
stay
during their longer and more frequent
ture of funds by American tourists
growth, conin Mexico is taken into consideration.
According to the traffic
servative assumptionsindicatethat tourists using this road will expend an
additional
US$20 million
per year in the country which is more than the total
cost of the project.
possibilities
This would understatethe return because of additional
104.
and profits to be expected from the doubling of traffic during the three years
after the completionof the toll road. This is feasible if new hotels and
to the plans of the
are constructed
in the area, according
rest facilities
Tourism is already one of the most
Mexican Government Tourism Department.
The construction
of
important
sources of earning foreign currency in Mexico.
toll road would be undoubtedly
an important
the four-lane
Tijuana-Ensenada
factor in its further
development.
C. Economic Returns of the Ferry
105.
The direct economic return of the ferry would result from the userts
savings calculatedas the differencebetween the present transportationcost
of goods and the operatingand amortizationcost of the ferry. In fact, on
this particular
facility
rather than on the toll roads, the crossingfares
are more directly based on the actual operationalcost (includingamortization). Consequentlythe direct economicreturn of the service to the national
economy becomes closer to the financial return provided by applyingthe ferry
rates. The actual calculationindicates that this return would be satisfactory and provide a rapid amortizationof the capital investment. (See Appendix
C).
D. AdditionalBenefits and IndirectReturns
The constructionof the project toll facilitieswill result in
106.
additionalbenefits,not all of which are easily capable of assessmentin
quantitativeform, but which nonethelessare of material importanceto road
users, property owners, and to the national economy in general. The easier
and quicker travel facilitiesto areas in proximity to both old and new roads
will not only provide incentive to further developmentof existing industry
in
dispersion
and residential
in the area but should encourage industrial
areas outside Mexico City in accordancewith Governmentpolicy. This should
help eliminate congestion,lower the cost of transport and result in a
general lowering of all social overhead costs. Moreover, althoughmuch agriculturalland within the zone of influence of the project roads is fairly
should induce
of fast transport
facilities
the assurance
well developed,
- 27 -
additionaldevelopment
of new landsas well as further agricultural
intensificationof changein croppatternswhich shouldresult in increasedproduction.
Increasedland and propertyvaluesshouldin turnyieldincreasedrevenues
from localtaxes.
VIII. CONCLUSIONS
AND RECONVENDATIONS
107.
All the items of the projectare economically justifiedby the
road user benefits alone which would yield a minimum return of 9% to 29%
from the start of operations.
The investment cost to the Borrower would be
repaid from revenuein 8 to 20 years, a shorter period than the economic
life of any facility
of the project.
108.
The project has been well designed and engineered, and will be
carriedout by the MexicanPublicWorksDepartment.It will be financed,
t, a
operatedand maintainedby "Caminosy PuentesFederalesde Ingresos"
semi-autonomous,
well administered
agency.
109.
A Bank loan of US$30.5millionequiv.wouldbe appliedto project
expenditures
from November1, 1961 to 196h,which totalaboutMex$ 842.4
million(US$67.
4 millionequivalent).
110.
Afternegotiations,
the projectprovidesa suitablebasisfor
a Bank loan of US$30.5millionequivalent;
a suitabletermwouldbe 20 years
includinga periodof grace of 3 years.
AppendixA
page 1
AREAS
OF TME AFFECTED
ECONOMICD;7IELOPTIENT
a)
Mexico-Orizaba
Route
1.
Construction
of this road will greatly
improve transportation
the Mexico City area, and the Eastern part
particularly
betwJeen the center,
beginning with a level of
a growth in traffic
of the country and, therefore,
to about 6% in 1971 is not unreasonable.
around 10% per annum and declining
will travel along the new
part of this traffic
the largest
Undoubtedly,
roads in view of the substantialsavings in time and distanceinvolved. The
area most immediatelyaffectedby the road is not only a relativelywellbut also one with a suband agriculture,
developed area in both industry
growth in the metropolitan
Past
stantialpotential for further development.
Mexico City area has been most impressive. The annual increment in vehicle
registrationover the past five years in the Federal District has been
around 10% and in the surroundingState of Mexico 8.3%. The populationof
the Federal District has grown from about 3.6 million in 1956 to 4.7 million
in 1960. Annual electricconsumptionhas increased by 12% per year during
this period, from 107 billion kwh to 2.7 billion kwh. The regions along the
road and that part of the East most affectedhave also been growing rapidly.
from
Furthermore,this is one of the most promising parts of the country,
the point of view of future economic growth.
Puebla, at the terminus of one of the toll sections,is already
2.
whereas Vera Cruz, ultimatelyto be
center,
a moderatelylarge industrial
an important port handling nearly
being
connected by a toll road, besides
and metal
50% of Mexicots ocean traffic, has become a large sugar refining
industrycenter. Consumptionin the Puebla-Vera Cruz electric system has
increased by 17.5%a year, and nearly doubled between 1956 and 1960; it is
expected by the Governmentto triple during the next decade. Puebla and
Vera Cruz already have over 15%of the electriccapacity of the country.
Puebla itself had a populationof over 285,000 in 1960; with Orizaba around
70,000; Cordoba about 50,000; and Vera Cruz over 140,000. The population
of the entire zone tributary to their route to the East has been growing
at an annual rate of nearly 3% during the past decade, with urban population
for agriculture,
growing at a rate of almost 412%. The area is also important
20% of the
for nearly 40-%of the sugar produced in the country,
accounting
corn and 30% of the coffee. The GovernmentAuthorities estimatedthat at
a minimum,the volume of agriculturalproductswhich annuallyare carried
toward the center of the country is of the order of 1.1 million tons. It
is estimatedthat some 25/0 of this is carried on the Mexicano railroadand
another 25% on the Interoceanicorailroad, leaving the rest for the roads.
The productionpotential of this region is rather substantial,
3.
indicatingthat the growth of traffic in the future might be important.
Governmentestimatesindicate that in the area, whereas about two million
hectaresare now producing crops, the potential land suitablefor agriculture
output
Overall agricultural
is approximatelytwo to three times as large.
might ultimatelybe more than doubled. Agr-culturalplans already under
Appendix A
page 2
active considerationsuggest large-scaledevelopmentnot only in the relatively
underdevelopedsoutheasternregion of Campeche and Yucatan, but also in the
gulf area of Tabasco and nearer Mexico City in the State of Puebla. Substantial work has already been startedin the Papaloapanarea. It is not unreasonable to assume that agricultural
traffic
in this part of the country will
grow rather substantially. GovernmentAuthoritieshave indicatedthat they
expect agriculturaloutput for the countryas a whole to grow at an annual
rate of 7%.
is also expected to be developed more
4.
The raising
of livestock
cows and 1.1 million
Around 2.1 million
fully in this part of the country.
hogs have been reported in this area with over half in the states of Puebla
are transported
each
700,000 head of cattle
and Vera Cruz.
Approximately
40% by rail and
markets in the center of the country,
year to the principal
the remaining 60% by truck. Some 150,000 tons of meat are shipped each year
by truck with around half coming from the areas of Puebla and Vera Cruz.
Governmentforecastsindicate that the potential livestock traffic may increase
by nearly 50% in the next decade or so. Forestry products also offer the
possibility of substantialtraffic in this area. Productionwas estimated
by GovernmentAuthoritiesat around 260,000 tons in 1959 with 25% produced
in the Puebla-VeraCruz area. It is estimatedthat as much as 160,000 tons
is sent to the center of the country, a good part of which travels by truck.
for a substantialgrowth in this
good prospects
There are increasingly
traffic.
Although a large part of the future growth in traffic apparently
5.
with the
industrial
development has been substantial
lies in agriculture,
canning
flour milling,
sugar refining,
being textiles,
industries
principal
industry
The textile
paper and lumber mills.
of foods, beer and soft drinks,
alone accounts for an annual output of some Nex $ 400 million in Puebla.
Vera Cruz is not ornlya large port, but also a center of sugar refining,
of beer, other alcoholic
Large quantities
and flour milling.
metalworking
Engineering
drinks and soft drinks are produced in that part of the country.
This activity
is strongly
and metal trades have been growing rapidly.
reflected in the industrialconsumptionof electricitywhich has grown from
300 million kwh in 1957 to 550 million kwh in 1960. The new growth in
will add substantialhigh value traffic to the bulk cargo goods
industries
railroad
now carries
large amounts
The Interoceanico
already being carried.
of manganese, fertilizer,
sugar, steel pipe, corn, lumber and coffee with
These commodities will,
the largest
part being some 850,000 tons of mineral.
by rail.
However, there will be an
continue to be carried
undoubtedly,
and agricultural
commodiof high value industrial
increasingly
large quantity
products which will undoubtedvegetables
and manufactured
ties such as fruits,
ly be attracted to the high speed highway network.
6.
along this
The initial
justified
reasonable.
traffic
in
The extent to which future trafficwill justify more toll roads
further
study.
route to the east or rail improvement requires
is
investment
in the twio links included in the present project
and expected growth which appears
on the basis of present traffic
The next steps will only be justifiedif the role of road
the future in this area is expanded even more than in the past.
Appendix A
page 3
The distancesto the east from M4exicoCity are substantialand railroads exist
all the way to Yucatan which is well over 1,000 km. On the other hand, a
large part of the traffic originatesbetween Vera Cruz and Mexico City which
is only about 400 km. GovernmentAuthoritiesbelieve that trucking for most
goods is cheaper over distances up to 400 km. Some studies in northernMexico
have indicated that in many instances truckingis cheaper up to 1,000 km.
Developing the most economic form of transport
to the East requires
a serious
investigation
which has not yet been effected.
However, the roads to Puebla
and Orizaba are justifiedon the basis of a growth in trafficwhich appears to
be reasonablyconsistentwith the type of developmentbeing carried out in the
area.
Estimates
of specific
traffic
for 1965 prepared by the PlanningDivision
of the Public Works Department indicated
in the table below probably exaggerate
what will develop within the next five years.
(See Table below).
Nevertheless,
they do indicate
that growth rates of 10% per annum for several years may not
be unreasonable.
The Mexicano railroad
which already carries
about 1,000,000
tons of freight and some 340 million ton/km, and the Interoceanicorailroad
with some l,4CO,00 tons and about 250 million ton/km have had traffic growth
of over 5% per ann-rm in the past. The most important points in their traffic
have been at Vera Cruz, Puebla, Cordoba and Orizaba.
On the Mexicano rai'lroad
alone, some 370,.0O0
tons of goods were receivedin 1959 at Vera Cruz and
515,000 tons shipped out.
Estimated Freight Traffic
Carried by Rail and Road
l'n the Project
Zone in 1959 and as Forecast
for 1965
(in tihousand
Tvpe c' Cargo
Agricultural
Livestock
Fores--ry
Industrial
Mineral
Other
Rail
1959
1965
530
108
793
155
-15
925
236
183
49
925
1666
583
146
Conmcovities
Tota! T½frafic
65)
79
1113
254
164
1?7.8
391
262
anrd
Total
b)
Road
'
1959
195g
metric tons)
NIexico-Venta
-
1769
de Carpio
1563
522
2265
2488
_
522
3931
752
3010
2772
4004
4541
7054
752
Route
7.
The Mexico-Venta de Carpio area incorporates
one of the fastest
grojing zones in Mexico in the vicinity
of Venta de Carpio, an industrial
suburb beyond the outskirts
of the Federal District.
Some of the largest
new industriesin the country have been establishedin this area and the
agriculturaloutput of the tributary region is only slightly smaller than
that described
in the previous section.
The new road will facilitate
the
Appendix A
page ,
entry into Mexico City from the northeasternsuburbs as well as from Otumba,
Texcoco,and for the populationalong connectingroads to Laredo, Poza Rica,
Tuxpan and Tampico.
Ultimately, it will becomea key link in the main route
to the northeast
through Pachuca.
8.
The traffic
resulting
from this industrialized
area is already
very substantial
at a daily average of nearly 7,000 vehicles
resulting
in
severe congestion
during periods of peak traffic.
The most congested area is
around the boundary between the State of Mexico and the Federal District.
In
this area, over 125 fairly
sizable firms have already been established,6 in
iron and steel, 23 producing machinery and metalworking,
21 chemical plants,
11 paperand board millsand 10 in textiles.Theseincludesomeof the
largest
industrial
firms
in the country.
It
has been estimated
by Government
Authorities
that around1 billionpesoshave alreadybeen investedin plants
in this area employingover45,000
workers,most of whom residein or around
MexicoCity. Five largenew plantsare presentlyunderconstruction
in this
area.
A new 150,000 kw thermal plant is being built to provide electricity.
As an indication
of the rate of economic growth, electric
consumption in
northeastern
tributary
region has probably grown as fast as in any other
of the country, growing from 316 million
kwh in 1950 to 926 million kwh
1960. The number of passenger
cars and trucks registered
has more than
over this same period.
this
part
in
doubled
Rail competition
is not substantial
at leastas far as the project
9e
road is concerned or even the road to Pachuca later.
Rail traffic
on the
Mexicano railroad
to Paclhuca now only amounts to 127,000 tons per annum incoming and about 30,000 tons outgoing.
The largest
part of the longer distance
trafficcomesfrom the northeastregion. Government
estimatesindicatethat
approximately
3 million
tons are now being brought
over this
general
route
from the northeastto the centerof the countryand they expectthis should
increaseto 3,500,000tons by 1965. Much of this trade and most of the increase
is expectedto go by road. Thiswould includesome 370,000tons of corn,
8h4,000
tons of cotton,70,000tons of oranges,45,000 tons of barleyas well
as largeamountsof toratoes,coffee,etc. An additional80,000tons of livestockand meat products,35,000tons of lumberproductsare included.The
largestquantitiesare industrialand mineralproductswhich at presenttotal
about2,250,000tons. The bulk mineralswould probablycontineto go by rail
but evenin this case,substantial
commodities
suchas cementare beingattracted to truck transport.The growthratesassumedin the trafficforecasts
do not seem unusuallylargeconsidering
the territoryservedby this route.
10.
Furthermore,
an important
tourist
traffic
is developing
on the
route to Teotihuacan,
the most important tourist center in the Mexico City
area; this old Toltec City, with two large pyramids and many ruins of great
interest
is visited
daily by a great number of tourist
cars and buses.
c)
11.
Baja California
(Tijuana-Ensenada)
The roads in the border area of Baja California
are especially
important
both for commercial transit
traffic
and for tourism.
As indicated
in the report,
the Tijuana-Ensenada
area is growing rapidly and a sizable
Appendix A
page 5
increasein trafficwith the new road is not unreasonable.The population
of Tijuana itself has gram over 1501 during the last decade. The number of
notorvehiclesregisteredin the state of Baja California has increased from
approximately
17,000to around55,000duringthisperiod. The growthin
tourismhas been evenmore significant.In Tijuanaalone,some82,000foreign
touristsa year haveregistered
in localhotels. An averageof over2,400
tourist vehicles per day havebeen countedduringthe past year. The value
of the commercialtrafficthroughTijuanato and from the U.S. for the year
1959 was estimated by the Mexican Authorities
at Mex $2 billion,
65% of which
consistof sales of
representsexportsfrom MIexico;
theseexportsessentially
goodsand servicesto touristsand buyerscomingfrom the U.S.,i.e.,building
rentals,productionand tradein food,beverage,tobacco.hotels,restaurants,
used by
cafesand agriculture.For the abovereasons,the growthassumptions
are consideredreasonable.
the Governmentin its calculations
Paz Ferry)
d) Baja California(Mazatlan-La
12.
The potentialfor development
of the peninsularTerritoryof Baja
California
is relatively
high. A recent agricultural
program has been started
in the "Valle Santo Domingo" area, 200 km north of La Paz. Its possible
at 125,000 - 150,000 T
production has been estimated by the Mexican Authorities
per year. (Wheat,cotton,seeds,cattle,fish,dairyproducts).The most
part of it is expectedto be exportedthroughthe Port of La Paz,acrossthe
Furthermore, all
Gulf of California to the ports of Mazatlan and Manzanilla.
consumption goods have to be imported from the continent through the same port,
the annualquantitiesof which have been estimatedat about50,000T per year
equipment,
food products,
for the area of SantoDomingo. (Fuel,lubricants,
fertilizers,
timberand material,etc.). In total,the potentialtraffic
175,000to
crossingthe Gulfto/fromthis area is estimatedto be betTTeen
200,000tons per year.
13.
The otherparts of this territoryare also expandingrapidly,
especially in "Los Planos" area (South La Paz) where new fruit plantations
melons,etc.),and alongthe coast
are beingdeveloped(papaya,strawberries,
wherefishingand tourismare alsobeingdeveloped.
Il.
The commoditytrafficmovementin the port of La Paz for the past
few yearshas been as follows(in tons):
Import
Export
1956
1957
1958
37,197
41,358
36,682
24,918
24,354
21,420
1959
1960
1961
33,490
42,976
80,000
190334
42,h35
50,000
Total
62,115
65,712
58,102
52,824
85,h11
130,000
Exceptin 1958 and 1959,traffichas been growingrapidly. The trafficexpected
on the ferryhas been basedon the assumption
that 50% of an averagelevelof
120,000tons of cargowillbe transported
by the new facility,in the firstyears
AopendixA
page
This ratio appears reasonabledue to the possibilityof importingfuel by
tankers (about 2,000 T/moiith),
and exportinga part of the cereals and seeds
now being shipped in bags by bulk carriers (about 25,000 T/year) as silo
facilitiesapparentlyare being planned for La Paz.
15.
Tourism is becoringanother nmajoractivityin this part of Baja
California;the region of Mazatlan is very well served with 5 large new hotels
having opened in 1961. Many others are under construction,and several trailer
parks have also been equipped along the coast.
The number of tourists
in
Mazatlan has increased
from 1951 to 1961 as follows:
National
Foreign
Total
Tourists
Tourists
1959
1961
60,152
72,200
2h,868
61>00
85,020
133,200
Nearly half of these tourists
are naw traveling
oy car, 39% by plane, 6% by
bus and 3% by train.
As soon as an overnight trip by ferry permits a cheap
and easy crossingfor passengersand cars, a very important expansionmust
be expected in the tourist
industry
in La Paz area. and consequently
new hotels
rest facilities
will have to be developed as they were in the recent past
along the continentalcoast to Mazatlan.
anc
APPENDIX B
Page L
APPRAISALOF DIRECT ECONOMICBENEFITS OF ROADSANDBRIDGES
1.
Not all direct economic benefits
accruing from the construction
of the new highways can be expressed
in terms of monetary units.
For instance,
the impact of the new highways on industrial
development due to the
better
access to industrial
areas and consumption centers will be very large.
A growth in agricultural
productivity
may also result
in the form of a more
intensive cultivation
or changes in crop patterns
from low yielding
to high
yielding crops such as perishablevegetables
which can be deliveredquickly
to their destinations
over the new highways or bridges. Such benefits are
difficult
to quantify.
2.
This appendixmakes a study of the road-user savings which are
only a part of the total direct economic benefits attributableto the new
highways.
3.
The specificroad-user benefits result, on each route, from
shorter distanceand on equal distancefrnm better road conditions
and
faster
speed.
4.
A very thoroughstudy has been carried out by Mexican engineers,
both on the basis of the cost per I=, and the cost per hour of the various
types of vehicles,without taking into account the time value of passengers,
but includingthat of truck and bus drivers.
5.
Both calculationsshow that the amounts of savings expectedby
engineers
on each road and bridge are conservative.
Mexican
The roaduser savings have been comparedto the total capital
60
expenditureson each road and bridge, using the discountedinvestment-return
This technique consistsessentiallyin a determinaor cash flow techniques.
tion of the rate of discountwhich will make the present value of the flow
of direct benefits during the life of the investmentequal the present value
of the flow of capital
expenditure.
The rate of discount,
or "the internal
rate of return"' obtained by this method of calculation
will show the net
for reestimated
life,
after provision
over its entire
yield of a project
payment of the capital invested.
As an illustrativeexample, the detailedtable of the road MexicoVenta de Carpio is given in Table 11.
74
8.
The capital used is the same as thab used in calculatingthe
A streau of estimated cash outflows and inpresent worth of an annuity.
is computed from which the net cash inflow or outflows for the project
flow is obtained. in the present case the investmentoutlays,maintenance
and other operating
costs are shown as outflows and the road-user
benefits
economic life of about 25 or 30
accruing during the highway's estimated
years are shown as inflows.
By trial
and error,
a rate of discount may be
found which equates
the present
value of the inflows with that
of the outfLowm.
APPENDIXB
Page 2
9.
Such a table has been worked out for every item of the Project
and the results have been summarizedin the report (para. 101). They show
that the rate of general economic return on the proposed toll facilities
are always very high; from 10% to 29% on the toll roads and 9%to 15% on
the toll bridges.
10
Explanationsof the method of derivationof the illustrative
Table 11 of Mexico - Venta de Carpio road are given below.
a) Investmentin Highway Constructionand Resurfacing (column1)
11.
The capital investmentincludesthe cost of the constructionof
the toll road, and of the access roads related to it including10% for
engineeringand 7% for contingencies.
12.
Since the asphaltic
carpets
are presently
renewed every eight
years,
a capital
expenditure
for renewal at real cost has been included
with the sare periodicity.
b)
Maintenance
and Operating
Costs
13.
The current
outlays indicated
in column (2) of the table include
maintenance cost and toll house operating
costo
It is assumed that these
costs will increase
as volumes of traffic
increase
and conditions
of roads
deteriorate.
The figures
are based on reliable
information
supplied by
the "Caminos y Puentes" on the present toll facilities.
c)
Road-User
Benefits
14.
The road-user
benefits
include on one hand the saving in time
accruingfrom the new toll expresswaysto the toll road-users,as well as
to the users of the existing free highways, for the latter due to less congested traffic;
on the other hand the saving in distance
to the toll roadusers only.
d)
Bridge-User
15.
Benefits
The annual benefits
to users of each new toll bridge have been
calculated
by taking into account time-saving
on each type of vehicle,
as
a differencebetween the crossingtime on the present river ferrios ard on
the bridge.
APPENDIX C
Page 1
TECHNICALA,D ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATIONOF THE FERRY
1.
Capacity: The average monthly traffic in La Paz is 10,000
T/month, of which-50% is assumed to be carried on the ferry (on both ways),
with 3 round-tripsa week. If this cargo is loaded only on average loads
of 7 T two-axletrucks (which is the most cumbersomeconsignmentother
things being equal), the average number of trucks should be:
5000T
716 tr. each month, or
7
The number of other vehicles
a truck or bus is equivalent
(28 x 2) + 15 - 71 equivalent
716
= 27 tr. per one
45.33 x 6
way trip
has been estimated
at 1 bus and 15 cars.
As
to 2 cars, the average load would be
cars per one-way trip,
or 426 in a week.
2.
The number of passengers
on cars and buses is (2,81&x 15)+ 30 =72
passengers supposedtraveling in first and tourist class; an equal number
of passengershas also been estimatedtravelingby themselves,in tourist
or economic class,
3.
To summarize, an average traffic
of about 70 equivalent
cars
150 passengers
can be expected,
on each trip,
out of a capacity of 100
equivalent
cars and 500 passengers.
This assumption appears reasonable,
schedule and possibility
of reservation
should
traffic
during the week.
and
considering
that a regular
avoid any important peak
}!o
50
Traffic
Growth: Whenever the actual traffic
was lower than
expected,
during the first
winter season for example, the number of round
trips could of course be reduced to two in a week instead of three. But
the reverse is likely to occur, accordingto the traffic forecastmade by
Mexican authorities,
6.
On the basis of the expansion of Baja California
consider that the traffic
would double within 6 or 7 years,
ing annual growth:
1st
yr.
2nd
yre
3rd
yr.
4th
yr-
5th
yr.
Percentage
of increase
17%
15%
12%
11%
10%
No. of equiv.
cars/week
426
492
566
641
7o5
1/
2Q8 is the average occupancy
South California (U.S.A.)
ratio
6th
yrO
9%
7th
yr.
8%
775 816
of private
cars
8th
yr.
7%
856
in
area, they
with the follow9th
yr.
6%
897
10th
yr.
5%
962
APPENDIXC
Page 2
7.
saturated
The capacity
in the fourth
of a three round-trip
a week service would be
year.
However, the daily stop-over
time of 8 hours
(8 am to 4 pm) can easilybe reducedto less than 1 hours On the otherhand
the schedule provides nearly two days of stop in Mazatlan each week (Sunday
8 am to Monday4 pm), whichcan be usedfor weeklymaintenance,
and even
some overhauls1/. This time can also be reduced,and the ferrycould
operateon a continuous
scheduleof 4e5 roundtripsa week, insteadof three.
8.
Accordingto such a programthe trafficrequirements
couldbe met
almost until the 10th year. But as soon as a permanent traffic will be
settled on this route, a second ship will likely be required, if only to
ensurea continuityin the servicein case of emergency,
and allowsatisfactorymaintenance.This wouldlogicallyoccurin the 8th year of operation,
as soon as the presenttraffichas doubled;the trafficto be carriedby
this firstferryhas been consideredas constantfrom thisyear on.
9.
Appraisalof EconomicBenefits: The toll rateson the ferry's
service have bee-FRticT
cost of transportationof
investment.
The proposed
ferry rates over the same
in order to provide a sizeable saving on direct
goods, and to give a good financialreturn on the
fares are realistic
and rather lower than usual
distance,
Touristcar
Mex, $ 250X00
Two axle truck
700-00
Three axle truck
1g200O00
Four axle semi-trailer
1,40000
Five axle semi-trailer
1,900.00
Passenger1st class
100.00
Economyclass
30.00
10.
The firstclasspassengertariffis abouthalf of the present
tourIst air tariffon MexicoAeronavesCompeny. In respectto the goods
transport
Ithe directcomparisonof the abovetruckrateswith the present
cargofreightrateson Mazatlan-La
Paz crossingshowsa 23% to 40% benefit
in favor of the ferry. A more thoroughstudyof the actualuser benefit
is givenhereafter.It takesintoaccountthe truckand driveridle time
duringthe crossing,increasedby 25% due to the possiblelossesof time
because of a rather low frequency of the ferry:
Cost of usualmaritimefreight(permetricton)
Handlingcost in Mazatlan
Crossing(present
tariffs)
Handlingcost in La Paz
1
Mex.$ 20
90
20
Mex,$130
(US$1.6 equivalent)
(US$792equivalent)
(US$1.6 equivalent)
The dry-docking,
plannedonce a year, cannotbe made in
Mazatlan and will resultin stoppingthe servicefor a
few days,duringthe winter season.
APPENDIX C
Paga 3
Cost of ferry transportation
a) 2 axle truck: estimated cost to t'Caminos
y Puentes"l:
Mex.$525
Cost of one ton (7t average load)
Xex.$ 75
Truck and driver s idle time
=_
Mex.$12O
_
b)
4 axle semi-trailer:
estimated
cost
Cost of one ton (18t average load)
Vehicle and driver's
idle time
to "Caminos y Puenteg':
Mex.$58.3
35.7
Mex.$94
Mex.$1050
11.
The above comparison shows that the cost of ferry transportation
of one ton of general cargo is lower than the cost of usual maritime freight.
12.
Still
it does not take into account either the savings in delivery
time (3 or 4 days) accruing to the receiver,
Or the brokerst
fees for transshipment and the losses or damage of the goods, which are high on generel
cargo transportation,
particularly
on fragile
or perishable
products.
This
will give an important economic return which can hardly be expressed
in terms
of monetary units.
13.
On the other hand a sizeable
growth in agricultural
and especially
fishing prcductivity
will also result
in the form of a more intensive
cultivation of high yielding
crops such as perishable
vegetables,
and lobster
or
shrimp fishing,
becauise of a cheaper deliveryby refrigeratingtrucks instead
of present air freight,
14e
Financial
Returns:
As indicated
above (see Report para 83), the
"Caminosy Fuentes" Authority has prepared a 15-year forecastof the Perry incom
income account which confolrms
with the Authoritytspractice of startingeach
yearts account for a particular
toll facility
with the unamortized balance of
original
investment
cost, adding 6% national
inverest
and operating
cost and
subtracting
all operating
revenues for the year.
15.
On the TCaminos y Puentes Federales"
assumptions,
which appear
reasonable
regarding
traffic
growvth and working costs,
the ferry service
would repay its full inrestmentcost at 6% interest
in a period of 12 years.
CA4IIIN0
COMp"r-t'l"
8d
of R-
Y PIE?rM
E5IDERALE5
R E V E
TSI
MILirIm/
DATZ
1 9 5 2
K1aCo-C8
LOh
m A30
-
SAVAIA 30 N-./32
1M-° /52
00I537
CO-P..IEILLAS
8'3,
Q
gl1920A
OOLOB800
DO
16,9967.0
46,600.
1 010.15.
STARftNa
195/5
I q
1 9 5 3
3'963,2060O
0
2'3100
6
% IN
3'7,7069.00
_912813,14.50
9.
-
0 29
2.92
_
";E
8884
53,595.0
809fi60
__as
906s943
6'113,63700
6'29,317.00
1'595,341
_6s515
-
~~~66,0
676,5
050
13,6
714,921
1.307
15,98
i0.4.9
7.95
10
76,515
13
5
809,1.6
4
906,91.3
- - - -I-
-o-
05,6
2.1,61
455,29'.
0.11
68.97
1'5 95,31.1
9
lppOrtiOoihg
0fl40182,
~~~TOT!AL
VLh8.1.1
K.aLIC -C1108.VACA
C_,M
CAAVAC6.-AXAC01AC
3,57.
t
1
V.hioles
1,525
6R000200-180o1.A
-
TO-T11
Vehicles
1.3
2,019
392
392
398
1;569
__2'312f521
1'665,902
3092
579,39
3569
Rotoo
12.29
_62
5
I%~- ---
-.
09°2
30
33
3 75B__77
3,758
7
1
1'L89,822
1 23,658
623,908
~
*
1|792,78831
5.16
11.63
7.53
7.60
931,C0.C
1
950
3' 9,29 .050
23
2'
32005,355 60
1'646229.990-
. 8
5792
17.9
l
LL
10
26.19
6.61.
18.75;
21.47
196
102
18.75
362,31
33
2.62
318
75
4.,126,622
713
-o
~2,6
316',19
632,0
220,595
~~~~~~~
175,136
~
7 58
7:06
1:33
1'371,7t1
30 65
80512
925,920
7.17
10.73
8.27
~~~~~~~~~~~~~8,266
317,71.0
81.1.2
322,1
13
611*rSPron
3'911.,236
'786,998
1.1.3,415
V.1,70.3
729,312165
1-099,5$03
Rtoad,
am To2l Rood.
V.hi.1..
3
21.5
191
17.0
.02
121.86
3'0.20.115'802,993.00
-
~
TOTAl.
_biele.
of Tol1 Rood.
0 V.hi.l.0i
6
1,683
10
6
8v
5,61
1.062
00203932
199
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,302
2,9
67
82
32
.,,,56
3,93
'51.1. 1573
3, 012
18
18
33
8
156
0.3
6.58
6'0171 7,7250
106
go7.20
0 90900.50i97'51
3'2152,63g7.00133317,81
c0o.00 10_
0'
61.54
-60
196C
2'322,521.
TOAI.
-V.hi8,101-0
'958
.0
,450
6'317,2'.6.00
7.99
2~-320,8109
1i.s
21.. 5
27.35
Feo
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~%
IN
% IN% AVERAGE
CRUASE
1959
9CR19660
ANNU
A
199
1755,3713620
537
011926000
n -DL
of Deily TroffE.
5,18
518
'670
39
2.234,999
0V.11.
57
5
%Th-
6 419,693.00
1,5..
2871.3
' .11CO
0
3.
24.47
8~~~~~
B4
-sd Toll Roodo
4,13015~1461,091.00
13
SnAMA
lou.
18.99
777 00
51i2,131.
2'C34,599
3_
_
10,190.661.50
P
Mb.,
Rood.
195,
Z'717,307.00
1
t
(on To.l Ro-de)
I 956
4:805,014.00
0. 9
3
60CO
62.52
27.0
5102'59C,6.50
_
of Trafis
N U Z 5
2
jO JO1.5'36
5701,835.90
9888100-OlmAYaAA
MXAUI1OIGUALA
C888OV6APC6-.OACU1.0
K48800-AIMLLAS
%I
5
DeE INCZ505
V8hi01.. od Apportio-iog
se, Nuob.r of
1
k1'
2,01
64
33,23
76
70 .
1,1
3
3,593
3,1.8
63
8.83.6
.
TABLE 2
Mexico - Toll Transortation FacilitiesProject
Design Standards of Toll Roads
Principal
Mexico-Venta
do Carpio
Puebla-Orizaba
Mexico-Puebla
Tijuana-
r
|
Ensenada
(a)
,B
F
R
M
B
F
R M ,B
F
R
M
B
F
R
T<
Number of lanes
4
4
4
4
4
h
4 4
2
2
2
4
4
4
4
DesignSpeed
110 901 8 110 8o 110110g
(km/h)
80 110 110 60o 80 110 110 9O
-
Min. radius of
1191 382 382 254 191 382 -
curvation(in)
Max.
-
2
grade
..
Min. sight
distance (m)
15%. 5%.
I
- 1191 382 382 104.191 382 382 254
5% 5% 5% 5%-
, . .~~-1---1
-
il10188 188 137 110 188 -
-
2 x 7.30
5% 5% 5% 6%I 6% 6% 6% 6-)
_,*
I
110 188 188 71t110188 188 137
7.3 7.3 6.7 6.7
2 x 730
Road carpet (mn)
2 x 7.30
Median strip (m)
1.00
1.00
Shoulders(m)
3.10
3.10
60.00
60.00
6o0 60. 4o. O.o
60.00
2%
2%
2%
2%
12%
12%
12%
12%
Asphalt concrete5 cm
thick
'Asphalt conIcrete5 cm
!,thick
Rightof Way (m)
Typical cross
_
_
_
_
j301 3.1 1.9 1.91 1.00 to 3.00
slope
Mlax. super_
elevation
type
Surface
a) B
F
R
M
=
=
=
=
Built-upareas
Flat ruralareas
Rollingareas
Mountainous
areas
Asphalt concrete5 cm
thick
IAsphalt con'crete4.5 cm
thick
TOLL BRIDGES
Desi n Standards
Total
Length
Coatzacoalcos
985 m
Spans
Roadway
IJidth
27 spans of 31 m
7.00 m road
lift span of 66 m
Design
Loading
Structure
H15 - S12
prestressed
concrete
steel
Cooper E-50
1,44 inrail
track
Culiacan
433 m
10 spans of 40 m
8.00 m
_
prestressed
The piers and foundations are made of
dredged concrete
cylinders
4.50C)
_(0
H15
Remarks
-
S12
Foundations:
driven concrete
concrete
piles
Alvarado
455 m
4 sp x 80 m
7.50 m
prestressed
H15
-
S12
Foundations:
dredged concrete
cylinders (Benoto
concrete
01.0m)
Caracol
160 m
5 sp x 31.8 m
prestressed
concrete
H15
-
S12
7.50 m
prestressed
H15
-
S12
_________________
Pa-aloapan
344 m
8 sp x 40 m
Foundations:
driven concrete
_____
_____~~~~~~~piles
7.50 m
concrete
Foundations:
driven concrete
piles
CD
TABLE 4
-.exico - Toll Transportation
Facilities
Project
Principal Specificationsof the Mazat'Lan-La
Paz Ferry
Register
-
Lloyd's Registerof'Shipping
Length
-
90 m.
Wlidth
-
15 n.
Maximum Draft
-
Displacement
-
about 4,C00 T
Clearance above
vehicle's deck
-
4.20 m,
Design concentratedload
on deck
-
10 T
Nominal speed
-
17 knots
Machinery
-
Slow speed diesel
-
Diesel generatorAC 60 cycles 4h0V and llOV
Electric
plant
4.5 m.
engines-
6,000 HP total
power
Cars Capacity-100 cars equiv. on main deck and two retractabletween decks
Passengersaccomodation(all air-conditioned)- 50 1st class state rooms
100 tourist class state rooms
350 economy class seats
Securityand Iianeuverability
devices:
Bow and stern loading doors
Electric
hydraulic
steering
gear
Traverse bow propellerwith variablepitch
Stabilizerfins
All regular passengers'securitydevices
Period of Constructionand delivery: 18 months approximately
EstimatedCost:
Constructioncost
Mlazatlanterminal
La Paz terminal
Administrationand engineering
Over-allphysical contingenciles
Ps. 37,500,000
6,100,000
11,200,000
2,700,000
5,750,000
Ps. 63,250,000
MEXICO - TOLL FACILITIES
OF INVESTMENTS
PROGRAM
(Mex$ Millions)
Total
TOL,LRO.ADS
Mexico-Orizaba
Section Mexico Puebla
Puebla-Orizaba
It
Mexico-Ventade Carpio
Tijuana-Ensenada
Length
C2ot
111 km
141 km
32 km
101 km
265,000
193,600
64,130
211,750
km
km
km
km
20,600
ACCESS ROADS
San Martin-Ocotoxco
La Pera-Cuautla
Ciudad Serdan-Esperanza
Venta de Carpio-Teotihuacan
Total Roads
40
37
20
25
TOLL BRIDGES
CoatzacoalcosToll Bridge
CuliacanToll Bridge
CaracolToll Bridge
AlvaradoToll Bridge
PapaloapanToll Bridge
Total Bridges
985 m
433 m
160 m
455 m
344 m
MiscellaneousEquipment
Mazatlan-La Paz Ferry and
Terminal Facilities
TOTAL
90 m
Expen.ditures after 11/1/61
88,570
193,600
64 1.30
211,750
1963
1964
88,570
3.5,000
10,000
45,000
80,000
30,000
90,000
78,600
24,130
76,750
Mid
End
I'
It
15,250
5,180
7,100
End 1963
" 1964
" 1964
" 1964
4,150
1,390
Mid 1962
it 1962
" 1963
1964
"1
t 1964
4,700
-
19,360
37,250
9,680
1245,000
636,440
6,000
5,000
17,420
12,100
4,960
18,150
7,390
60,020
17,420
12,100
3,000
'7,000
1,000
12,700
12,700
8,000
63,250
_6.250
?7'2,410
10,300
12,870
Completion
Date
1962
(14 mos.)
3QL0__
268,340
13,360
17,000
4,500
1,960
7,000
5,000
33,000
286,820
1962
1964
1964
1964
End 1963
217,250
physical contingencyallowances
(.U) and addit,ional
Note: The above estimatesinclude cost of engi:Ieerinig
(20% on the access road to Pera Cuautla, 10 on all the other items).
CAMINOSY PUENTESFEDERALESDE INGRESOS
AUDITEDBALANCESHEETAS OF DECEMBER
31. 1960
(Figures rounded to Pesos 000)
LTARLI-I
ASSETS
Filxd Aseats
Own Funds
(at cost)
Roads and bridges in operation
Less: accumulated depreciation
365,523
40,682
324, 841
1,750
Ferry-boatsin operation
and accumulated
Initial
capital
Debt
Payable
in more than one year
Gurrent
Liabilities
surplus
423,039
2,522
326,591
Roado and bridges
under
142,513
construction
Construction
equipment
loss: aocumulated depreciation
2,775
1,L94
1,281
Furniture
and office equipment
leass accumulated depreciation
Documents payable within one year
contracts)
Pending estimates
(construction
MiAscellaneous creditors
Retentions from contractors
29,604
18,680
5,230
334
53,848
812
231
581
35
Land
471.001
109
12
5,267
(at cost)
Spares and materials
(at cost)
Investments
Deferred charges
Ourrent Asseto
Cash and bank accounts
Cuarantee deposits
debtors
Misoellaneous
1,279
1,718
25
3,020
_________
079.40
FEDERALESDE INGRESOS
CIMINOS Y PUL±TE1LS
CASH FLOWJ
oot,O0o)
(Me,-C
ConstructionPeriod
Entire
1962
1963
1964
Period
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
113
212
263
_
284
-
1972
14 months
SOURCEOF FUNDS
Working capital beginning of period
Cash from operations
Pronosed loan from Banco Hipotecario
Proposed IBRD loan
-5
49
71
-5
55
48
75
99
200
120
115
200
143
150
100
118
364
500
351
199
_-
228
-
241
-
Funds Available
414
407
439
1,240
254
276
316
376
496
166
120
186
143
143
118
495
381
-
-
-
-
-
286
329
261
876
_
_
_
-
_
10
-
-
10
USE OF FUNDS
InVestr.ent
local cost
r-o.ject:
foreign cost
Total
Highway
<ueretaro-Apaseo
Corr,nletion
By-pass
ana Juernavaca
Replace.,.ent of equipment for rental
Repairs
DEBT SERVICE
al
Princi
Interest
service
Total
debt
Total
use of funds
end of period
Working capital
11
11
33
11
-
_
-
11
11
11
11
11
10
12
10
10
10
10
940
21
21
21
21
21
23
32
73
90
155
108
77
113
67
110
62
86
57
84
49
20
15
89
105
245
185
180
172
143
133
35
365
436
384
1185
206
201
193
164
154
58
49
71
55
55
48
75
113
212
342
-
7
7
314
367
279
25
26
33
56
51
and acquisitions
Total investment
V
11
_
-
-
320
_
including interestduring constructionon foreign cost.
721
X
,
CAIMIMOS
Y PUENIES FEDERALESDE INGRESOS
DEBTSERVICE
(-ex
600000)
1962
(14 months)
1963
1964
1, Cash from operations
99
115
150
199
228
2. Depreciationof roads, bridges & ferries
10
15
19
31
3.
1
11
2
11
2
11
3
11
22
28
32
77
87
21
4
-
1965
1966
1968
-_
1969
1972
241
263
284
320
31
31
31
31
31
3
11
3
11
3
11
3
11
3
1'L
45
45
45
45
45
45
118
154
163
196
218
239
275
21
12
-
21
11
21
10
71
6
21
8
71
13
25
71
14
25
33
32
108
113
12. Existing Banco Hipotecarioloan (8%)
13. SujpliersIcredits
(5%)
14* Proposed Banco Hipotecario loan (10%)
15. Proposed IBRD loan
10
2
10
4
9
7
4
2
1
10
1
50
15
164
Total interestpayments
26
56
17.
Total Debt Service Requirement
51
1.9
3.0
" equipment
equipment for rental
14.
"
""
5.
Total Depreciation
6.
Net earnings
from operations
-
-
1967
-
Payments of principal
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
Existing Banco HipotecarioDebt
Simliers credits
Proposed Banco Hipotecario
loan
Proposed IBRD loan
Total principal payments
_
_
71
15
_
_
71
15
110
86
84
20
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
50
44
41
22
21
20
38
19
31
18
15
73
77
67
62
57
49
15
89
105
185
130
172
143
133
1.3
1.6
1.L
1.6
1.1
2.0
1.3
2.7
1.b
3.2
1.8
3.8
2.1
-
-
-
_
20
Interestpayments
Debt Service Ratio
(1 ' 17)
Times Interest Earned (6 , 16)
35
14.9
-
35 CO
9
18
TABLE9
PacilitiesProject
Mexico - Toll Trar.sTJortatior
SaturationRatio on ZxistingRoads
Proposed
Toll
Road
Existing
Free
Highwxay
No. of
Lanes
Distance
Traffic
% of Presfrom prima- in 1961
ent Satury point
veh./day
4/ ration
I-Iexico-Orizaba
Section
MexicoPuebla
Section
PueblaOrizaba
lexicoVenta de
Carpio
Mexico
(2 )
17 km
20 km
29 km
11,417
6,592
3,699
260o
139/o
Rio Frio
62 km
101 km
104 km
2,665
3,693
2,786
196%O
162%
144%
Puebla
135 km
2,794
110%
Amozoc
150 km
2,834
92%
Tecamachalco (2)
180 km
1,090
505
Tehuacan
253 km
1,712
56Z
Acultzingo
298 km
1,078
48%
Orizaba
313 km
4,993
169%
16 km
6,839
7,972
156%
21 km
23 km
6,121
166%
25 km
6,662
196%
Rosarito
52 km
3,419
98%
Ensenada
98 km
6,796
166%
Mexico
(2)
Venta de
Carpio
Tijuana
Ensenada
Tijuana
(2)
392%
213%/
,ote: 1) The number of vehicles is the sum of the real numbers of cars,
trucks, trailers and buses. The proportion of commercialvehicles is high (40,'to 65%) except on Tijuana-Ensenada
Road(6%).
2) The practical capacityhas been defined on each road accordingto
HCM of Bureau of Public Roads; due to the high proportionof
trucks the selected equivalentratio is only 1 commercialvehicle
(truck,traileror bus) for 2 equivalertpassenger cars on flat terrain; 2.5 on hilly terrain and 3 on mountainousterrain.
TA3BE 10
MEXECO
Analysisof Average OperationCost of Vehicles Per Km
(in Mexican Pesos)
Automobile
Trucks
Buses
Depreciation
0.138
0.200
0.270
Insurance
0.0o6
0.020
0.038
0.817
0.578
Drivers' Salary
-
Maintenance
o.094
0.130
0.185
Tires
o.o63
0.150
0.155
Fuel
0.127
0.250
0.248
Lubricants
o.o36
0.100
o.o60
o.464
1.667
1.543
& Tubes
Note: 1) All the above prices are out of taxes.
2) The cost of trucks is calculatedon the basis of 90% of (7T - lOT)
trucks and 10% of (18T - 22T) semitrailers,and 50% gasolineand 50%
diesel power.
Table 11
MEXICO TOLL TRAYS?PO-ITATION
FACILITIES
CALCULATION
OF ECONOMIC
RETURNSON INVESTTrNTS
Toll Road "'MEXICO-*VENTA.
DE CARPIO (TECAMAC)"including
access road "Venta de Carpio - Teotihuacan"
Outflows
Tnflow9
Cost of
Operating
and
Construction
Maind Main'enance
Road
User
Benefits
MlaJ.nt<M,-nce
YRear 1
Val-ue
GC;s
3t
7t20)
Worth
Worth
0275
a
0.)01
G 4 66
- 7.8
- 7.8
-23.14
- 7.5
-31.2
-38,7
+ 6.6
+ 5.5
+ 4.6
-3,l
-26,6
+ 3.8
-22.0
-18.2
{
---
1961
1962
Surplus
Present
Surplus
Cumulaor
tion
or
Value of
Deficit 1 Peso Deficit Balance
at 29%
Current
Discount Present Present
Mex$ millions ---
]1^GO
1010
39.0
24 7
0.7*
-10.0
-39,0
-16.J
18.4
19to
1.5
9.3*
19.9
21.3
196P
i.7
22.7
24.1
211
22.4
o._,4l
0,280
C, 2l7
O-,68
1l69
1,8
25.6
23.8
0.I30
+ 3.1
-151
1970
1971
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
27.1
28.7
30.3
32.0
33.8
35.7
37.7
25.2
26.7
0.101
0,078
10.14
0.060
29.8
31.5
33.3
35.2
M0O7
0.036
O.G28
0.022
+
+
+
+
2.5
2.1
o.6
1.4
+ 1.1
+ 0.9
+ 0.8
-12.6
-10.5
- 9.9
- 8.5
2.6
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.9
41
39.8
42.0
37.2
39.2
41.5
17.5
46.3
1S65
1966,
1.967 ;.6
1972
i
17.8
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
*
26.3
38.9.5
j
1.5
13
61.6
51.7
54.6
57.7
68,6
64.3
0.017
0.013
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
0.010
72.4
29.0
0.010
44.4
46.9
49.5
52.3
55.2
58.3
1
65.0
I
48.9
60.9
-
7.4
-
6.5
5.7
+ o.6
+ 0.5
+ 0.4
+ 0.2
+ 0.5
+ 0.5
+ 0.5
+ 0.5
+ 0.6
-
5.1
4.6
-
4.0
+
-
0.8
0.6
0.6
+ 0.3
+
Only six months
NOTE: a) Including101 for cost of engineeringand 7% for additional
contingencies.
- 14.2
3.5
3.0
- 2.5
- 2.0
- 1.4
- 0.2
+ 0.1
FACILITIES
MEXICOT1ILL TRANSPOR'iATION
Financial
Returns
Toll
Length:
32 km (4-lane)+ 25 km (access
Cars
road)
Trucks
Buses
1964
Traffic
Rates
2.00
6.50
4.00
Mex$
"x
"
1,491,COO v.
598,000 v.
360,000 v.
Toll Road: Mexico-Ventade Carpio (Tecamac)
access road Venta de Carpic-Teotihuacan
including
(1)
Year
(2)
(3)
UnamortizedCost
Start of Period (a)
InterestCharge
6%
(4)
Operating and
Maintenance
Cost
Mex$ million
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
l9q
1968
196Q
10.0
393 +10.3
24.4 + 51.08
73.71
70.63
66.82
62.23
56.80
0.3
(b)
1.48 (b)
2.26 (b)
4.42
4.23
4.00
0.82
1.47
1.54
1.62
3,73
3.40
1.70
1.78
l.8'7
142,77
2.07
2.17
2.39
2.51
1970
-971
10972
1973
1974
50.44
43.10
47.51
28.83
3,02
2.5J
2.E85
2,32
1,72
1975
1976
1977
17.70
5.17
1.06
0.31
a)
b)
c)
38.77
Including
10% engineering
cost and 7% additional
Interest
during construction
is only 3%M
Six months
(c)
2.75
3,00
contingency
(5)
Total Outstanding
Deficit
(2 + 3 + 4)
(6)
Operating
Revenues
(7)
Unamortized
Balance
End of Period
--10.30
51.08
78.56
79.60
764o0
72.44
67.66
61.98
55.33
60,45
52.43
43.26
32.94
21.27
8.23
4.85 (c)
8.97
-9 58
10.21
10.30
51.08
73.71
70.63
66.82
62.23
10.86
11.54
56.80
50.44
12.23
12.94
13.66
14.43
15.24
43.10
16.10
17.00
47.51
38.77
28.83
17.70
5.17
-8.77
'-9
l8.11
H
FIGURE
CAMINOSY PUENTES FEDERALES DE INGRESOS
ORGANIZATION CHART
|BOARD
GENERAL DIRECTOR
|EQUIPMdENT
MANAGER
2 Mechanic
FERRIES
BRIDGES
ROADS
I Mechonic
I Electrician
inap.cla
I Mechanic
2 AnnieInst
~
23 Drivor,
Acecnling
DWivi-i
Personnel
Divisr,n
4 ROW operations
awadrp .
~
~
I
I I
I
GInseco
Purchose
Di,i.in
Ferry operations
inepeto'
ROADS
_
Mbcellonerx
6 Foleno
Chief
Chief
Chief
9 Wordmn
s of of
40Chief
15 Chiefs
omt
Assistants
I
IS Operotors
Toll
Di.ision
,nets
t
2 Chief
MhiniSts
4 Operaiors
nmechanics
I Electrician
MANTNNCE
MAN GER
DIRECTOR OF
INISTRATION
ADMIOPERA
|
ypstsatic
3
20 Receiver
eceivers
~
Treonorers
B Chintn
pmin
3
mon
20LeW
I
4 Receiversvsl
B Watch.mn
4 OpeaotarMs~ ~~~~~~~~~~~
~ ~~~~~~~~~~~
Servicesen
$~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~in4P.t,on.
~
cnne0e
FIGURE2
VEHICLEREGISTRATIONS
MEXICO:
5.0
5.0 ~
I
I
1,000
II
I
I
I
1,00
*.-
/
'
.-
900
4.5
/
S.
PROBABLE
7.5 % PER
H~~~~~CREMNT
ANNUM
800
4.0
or./
GASOLINE CONSUMPTION
3.5 LEFT SCALE)
3.5
700
i
600
-/
3.0
0
*0i
17r
2
.
Q
Q
.
2.5
TOTAL VEHICLES
}
/PROBABLE
SCALE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(RIGHT
/
*m
INCREMENT
D
Yo~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.
/ PER ANNUM
20
a)zgo%PRMlt
~~~~~~~~~
500 0
_
n
.
U.
0
0
00
/
2.0
_
-T~~~~CRUCS
/
/
-
<.
3SE
AND
(RIGHTSRIGHTESCAL
0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
0,
100
0.5
'49
'50
'51
'52
'53
'54
'55
'56
'57
'58
'59
'60
'61
'62
'63
C197S
400IR-
* exicoli
|
%
U NI T E D
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E,,senodo
P
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V
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MAIN HIGHWAYNETWORK
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,
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toll
roads . Znd. ph^
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................
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ZONE OF ECONOMICINFLUENCE
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CO.VICTORIA
%
Distribution centers of raw materials
Existing areas of intense agricultural
cult ivation
Future areas of intense agricultural
cultivationERD
---
/j
an
mp.Monco
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tExisting
Future
<
cattle
cattle
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areas
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-
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for the zone of influence
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(
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CHILPANCINGOn
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