Decarbonizing transport
- a world viewPresentation for Outreach workshop
Oslo March 8 2017
Stef Proost
KULeuven (B)
challenges
• Transport is strongest growing source of GHG
emissions
• There is no easy substitute for oil, the
dominant source of energy in transport
• Transport costs have decreased by a factor 10
over last 100 years and is a key input in a
world driven by specialisation and trade
WORLD: 50% of oil use in transport sector and
80% of oil use in transport is used on road
Road
Source: BP outlook 2017
Why is it hard to reduce carbon emissions
in transport? – OECD countries
• Emissions = activity x fossil fuel intensity
• OECD (share in world decreases to 40%)
– Growth in volume is small (but flexible transport
like small vans is on the rise)
– Road Transport fuels (except for US) have already
a carbon tax of 150 to 300 Euro/ton of CO2 (but it
is called “gasoline or diesel excise”)
– Maritime and aviation fuels are difficult to tax
because of tankering (tax = O Euro/ton of CO2)
Why is it hard to reduce carbon
emissions in transport? outside-OECD
– strong economic growth leads to strong increase in car
ownership and sectoral composition (away from steel, coal
etc) relying more on road freight
– Road Transport fuels
• In some countries: also high carbon tax of 150 to 300 Euro/ton
(called gasoline or diesel excise)
• In other coutries: subsidized (even sold below world prices)
– Maritime and aviation fuels are difficult to tax because of
tankering
• Non-OECD may not be very active in terms of climate
policy so the green paradox comes into play and
compensate part of the oil consumption reductions
from the OECD
Car fleet more than doubles
Gasoline prices vary between 0 and 2 Euro/ liter
Recipes for cars 1
(40% of carbon emissions)
• Reduce mileage – current thinking
• Densification (urban planners recipe)
– Difficult, long term and not so effective as commuting is less than 50% of
the trips
• Very good reasons to decrease volume of cars and trucks in the
peak period in urban areas to keep the urban economy functioning
– Requires road pricing
– Gasoline taxes are not the right instrument (not place and time
dependent)
– Low public transport pricing are also very second best as
» it is mainly peak PT production that is very expensive to supply
» To be effective, new passengers should come mainly from road,
often many new passengers but not so much previous car users
• Electric bicyles increase market share of biking
Recipes for cars 2
(40% of carbon emissions)
• Reduce mileage – information age?
• Automated vehicles & pooled vehicles (2025-2040)
means cheaper and more easy access to car use
– More efficient use of equipment (may save on car ownership,
saves on parking …- increases capacity on roads)
– But cheaper use of cars (sharing costs+ less congestion) makes
people use it more (“rebound effect”) in developing countries
– Will be competitor for public transport that will see its
ridership decrease, so frequency decreases and so the waiting
time increases (vicious circle)
– SO as long as cars are not electric, the information revolution
will not help to decrease carbon emissions
Recipes for cars 3
(40% of carbon emissions)
– Reduce carbon emissions per vehicle mile
• Conventional vehicles:
– fuel efficiency improvements have been major factor in keeping carbon
emissions under control via high gasoline prices and fuel efficiency
standards – increases
– Technology that is not very expensive and percolates to developing
countries
• Electric vehicles:
– Still a more expensive route to decarbonization (as it recieves many
subsidies) but allows full decarbonization if there is enough renewable
electricity at the right moment
– Not sure how it is transfered to developing countries
• Hybrid plug – in vehicles
– Safety valve for longer trips and is therefore expected to be the dominant
new car type (
– Risk of “lazy” refuelling with conventional fuel (cfr. biofuel in Sweden)
Market share of car types in EU
Source: EU reference scenario 2016
Role of activity, fuel efficiency and
electrification for cars
Trucks?
• Modal switch? But trucks are much more
flexible than rail
• Excise taxes on fuel but may be replaced by
distance charging
• Technology solutions?
– Electricity for small vans
– Bigger trucks remains difficult
Aviation
• Global market of airplanes (Boeing, Airbus) – fuel effiency improved
after oil price hikes
• Carbon is untaxed because of international convention and
tankering
• Voluntary scheme (CORSIA) is being developped for air transport
that relies on buying emission permits from other sectors
• Main alternative is biofuels (kerosine price x 3?)
• But biofuels are more easily introduced in the road sector (excise taxes on oil
(acts as subsidy + biofuels are easier to make)
• Opposition to certain types of land use
• Can HSR take market share of aviation?
• Yes but only on shorter routes (<500 km)
• Investement only makes sense if high density (10 million pass/year)
Conclude 1?
• Decarbonizing road emissions is difficult
(expensive)
• Short term efficient steps
– Road Fuel prices in the world are very different so
there is a very strong difference in implicit carbon
taxes
– If these can not be harmonized, fuel standards
are a good second best instrument
– Air transport and maritime have virtually zero
carbon taxes – so this looks like the priority
Conclude 2?
• Long term steps:
– Reducing activity and modal shift will be
insufficient, so it has to come from better
technology
– Electric vehicles in long term if green electricity
– Simple technology (not expensive) will have a
larger market share in rest of the world than
“fancy” technology
– Biofuels for aviation