Four Things to Know About the
Town of Seekonk
An Overview of Factors Affecting
the Future of Library Services
1
2012 Seekonk Public Library
FOUR TRENDS IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
Factors affect library services.
1. Slow population growth overall.
2. Increased numbers of older persons and
retirees.
3. Slight decrease in school age children.
4. Slow economic growth, which will impact library
use as well as local and state funding.
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SLOW POPULATION GROWTH
• The population has grown slowly over the past two
decades.
• Population grew about 2.9% from 1990 to 2000.
• Population grew about 2.2% from 2000 to 2010.
• School population has decreased slightly overall.
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Seekonk's Total Population, 1980 to 2010
14,000
13,425
13,722
13,500
13,046
13,000
12,500
12,269
12,000
1980
1990
2000
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2010
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PREDICTING POPULATION GROWTH
• MISER and the Census Bureau project a 9% to 10%
decrease in Seekonk’s population by 2020.
• Increases are still predicted for the 60 to 79 age group.
• A large decline is predicted for the 10 to 19 age group.
• Previous predictions on Seekonk’s population growth
have been off the mark, however.
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Seekonk Population Growth, 1980 - 2020
Actual and Projected
14,000
13,425
13,500
13,046
13,722
13,046
13,000
12,500
13,425
13,045
13,043
12,269
12,269
12,675
12,505
12,732
12,193
12,000
11,905
11,500
11,000
10,500
Actual as Reported by U.S. Census
Projected by MISER
Projected by U.S. Census
Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Research (MISER). University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
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CONTINUED SLOW GROWTH
• We anticipate continued slow growth of the population.
• This includes a continuation of existing population trends.
• A slight decline in the number of school age children,
• with the largest decline coming in the number of teens.
• The number of those in the range of 40 to 59 will decrease
slightly, but
• the increase in the over 60 population will offset these
declines.
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Seekonk School System Total Enrollment
2,350
2,328
2,235
2,300
2,250
2,281
2,241
2,329
2,282
2,243
2,225
2,189
2,200
2,162
2,150
2,154
2,141
2,132
2,100
2,050
2,000
Source: Massachusetts Dept. of Elementary and Secondary
Education.
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Seekonk Public Schools Enrollment by Type of Student, 2000 to 2012
2,400
2,200
2,000
606
600
631
672
715
740
743
718
655
647
642
677
676
538
551
561
560
561
525
514
1,001
974
973
955
951
939
942
1,800
1,600
1,400
610
607
632
606
578
554
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
1,025
1,018
1,018
1,029
1,035
1,035
200
0
Seekonk High School Grades 9 - 12
Seekonk Intermediate School Grades 6, 7 & 8 *
Average annual change since 2000 = .41%
Elementary Schools *
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THE CASE OF STABLE OR SLOW GROWTH
• The 20 to 39 age group – the age at which most people
have children is predicted to increase slightly.
• Several residential developments are being planned or
are under construction.
• A large percentage of these are multifamily units
• Many of these units are intended to be "affordable
housing” which may attract younger people and
families.
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OTHER FACTORS
• People are “staying put”!
• An otherwise poor real estate market has meant little turnover in the housing inventory.
• Improved health and social support is allowing more seniors
to stay in their homes longer.
• The Massachusetts economy will remain slightly better than
the nation overall, which is enough to keep people here but
not strong enough to draw more people to the state.
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POPULATION IS AGING
• Distribution among age groups is increasingly
disproportionate
• School age population is predicted to decrease
• It’s predicted that about half of the town’s
population will be over 40 by 2020.
• Seniors (65 & over) are the fastest growing
demographic group in Seekonk
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SEEKONK AND MASSACHUSETTS
COMPARISON OF THE POPULATION MEDIAN AGES
Massachusetts
Seekonk
Males
37.7
43.1
Females
40.3
44.1
Total Population
39.1
43.8
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Seekonk Population Distribution by Age
2,500
2,357
2,368
1,930
2,000
1,381
1,500
1,473
1,248
1,563
1,000
840
500
552
0
Age
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2010 Demographic Profile Data: Massachusetts.
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1
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Seekonk Population by Gender and Age Groupings
1400
1200
Males
Females
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2010 Demographic Profile Data: Massachusetts.
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP
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Population Distribution by Age Group,
Massachusetts and Seekonk Compared
18
16
Massachusetts
Seekonk
14
Percentag
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Age
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Seekonk Population Changes by Age Group, 2000 to 2010
2,444
2,500
2000 Census
2,239
2010 Census
2,016
1,997
2,000
2,177
1,673
1,950
1,820
1,499
1,500
1,238
1,439
1,105
1,228
1,066
1,000
894
768
507
500
410
0
9&
under
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
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70-79
80 plus
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Seekonk Population Changes by Age Group, 2010 to 2020
2,500
2010 Census
2177
2239
2020
Projected
1,997
1,950
2,000
1,864
1,572
1,606
1499
1439
1,500
1,228
1,448 1,238
1,108
1,221
1,199
1,000
768
507
500
490
0
9&
under
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
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70-79
80 plus
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Age Groups as Percentage of Total Population: Actual and Projected
20.00%
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
9&
under
2000 Census
10-19
20-29
2010 Census
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
2020 Projected
2012 Seekonk Public Library
70-79
80 plus
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SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH WILL INCREASE
COMPETITION FOR FUNDING.
• Seekonk is experiencing a shrinking tax-base and
less growth, which may impact revenues.
• The amount awarded to Seekonk by state library
grant programs (LIG/MEG) has decreased in recent
years.
• Private donors often redirect funds from cultural
and educational organization to address more
pressing human needs in economic downturns.
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SEEKONK TAX INFORMATION
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Assessed Property Tax Tax Limit
Value ($000) Revenue
($000)
($000)
1,332,217
1,370,605
1,801,464
2,062,189
2,062,189
2,347,261
2,326,627
2,200,513
2,134,215
20,508
22,212
24,186
24,300
25,872
26,948
28,429
29,329
30,400
20,513
22,225
24,203
24,337
25,880
26,971
28,466
29,376
30,404
Levy
From
Growth
($000)
562
796
601
646
593
554
750
467
384
Compiled from the Massachusetts Tax payers Foundation . Municipal Financial Data(34th -41st editions).
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