Statistical Release – Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims Q4 2016 Statistical Release 7 April 2017 Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims – Q4 2016 Domestic banks’1 claims on foreign residents fell by €2.6 billion (3.2 per cent) in Q4 2016, bringing the outstanding amount of claims to €79.3 billion. Claims on the foreign private sector were the predominant driver with a decrease of €3.4 billion recorded. Claims on the UK accounted for the largest country decrease of €2.6 billion (4.7 per cent) over the quarter. The decline in Q4 2016 reflected foreign exchange movements and retrenchment in lending over the period. Domestic banks’ largest foreign claims continued to be on the UK, and accounted for 66 per cent of claims at end-Q4 2016, the majority of which were vis-à-vis the private sector (Table 1). Table 1: Overview of Foreign Claims by Country & Sector, end-December 2016 Q4 2016 € million % of total By country United Kingdom United States France Spain Netherlands Rest of World Total By sector Credit institutions Public sector Private sector 1 Change in Quarter € million % change 52,492 6,387 3,914 2,193 1,703 12,658 79,347 66.2% 8.0% 4.9% 2.8% 2.1% 16.0% 100.0% -2,584 511 -70 107 -16 -534 -2,586 -4.7% 8.7% -1.8% 5.1% -0.9% -4.0% -3.2% 9,482 13,004 56,862 12.0% 16.4% 71.7% -825 1,591 -3,351 -8.0% 13.9% -5.6% In this case, the Central Bank of Ireland defines domestic banks as those banks whose ultimate parent entity is resident in Ireland. Statistical Release – Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims Q4 2016 Developments in Foreign claims by Sector Decreases were observed across credit institutions’ and private sector claims, with each recording declines of €825 million and €3.4 billion, respectively. Claims on foreign public sector counterparts increased by €1.6 billion (Chart 1). The majority of Irish resident banks’ foreign claims were on the private sector, which accounted for almost three quarters of total claims at end-Q4 2016. Claims on foreign public sectors (16 per cent) and credit institutions (12 per cent) were relatively small in comparison. Foreign claims recorded an annual decline of €15.5 billion or 16.4 per cent in the four quarters to end-Q4 2016. Annual declines were recorded in all quarters of 2016, compared with three quarters of annual growth recorded in 2015. Chart 1: Foreign Claims; net flows (4-qr sum) and annual rate of change € billion 80 per cent 50 40 60 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 -10 -20 -20 -40 -30 -60 -40 -80 -50 06 07 08 09 10 11 Non-Credit Institution Private Sector Credit Institutions 12 13 14 15 16 Public Sector Total foreign claims, % (rhs) Developments in Local & Cross-Border Claims Local claims2 stood at €50.3 billion at end-Q4 2016. This represented a €2.3 billion decrease during the quarter, and follows on from a €3.9 billion decrease in Q3 2016. Local claims fell by €14.4 billion (22.3 per cent) on an annual basis at end-Q4 2016; this was the fourth successive period of annual decline. 2 Local claims are claims where the location of the bank office that books the position is the same as the location of the claim counterpart (e.g. UK subsidiary of an Irish headquartered bank lending to UK resident). Statistical Release – Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims Q4 2016 Cross-border3 claims were lower at €29.1 billion at end-Q4 2016, following a fall of €252 million (0.9 per cent) over the quarter. In annual terms, cross-border claims recorded a decline of 3.7 per cent in Q4 2016, and follows on from a decline of 4.9 per cent in Q3 2016. At end Q4-2016, cross-border claims had recorded four consecutive quarters of annual decline. Chart 2: Local and Cross-Border claims; net flows (4-qr sum) and annual rate of change Developments in Claims by Location of Counterparty Domestic banks’ largest foreign claims were on the United Kingdom (including Northern Ireland), with exposures of €52.5 billion at end-Q4 2016. Foreign claims on the UK fell by €2.6 billion (4.7 per cent) over the quarter. This was driven by a decrease in claims on credit institutions and the non-bank private sector, with claims on the UK non-bank private sector recording the largest decline of €2.8 billion. Chart 3 shows that the vast majority of the domestic banks’ claims on the UK are on the non-bank private sector, while exposures to credit institutions and the public sector are relatively small in comparison. 3 Cross-border claims refer to claims where the location of the bank office that books the position is different to the location of the claim counterpart (e.g. an Irish bank office lending to UK resident). Statistical Release – Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims Q4 2016 Chart 3: Geographical Breakdown of Foreign Claims, end-December 2016 All Foreign Claims UK Claims There was an 8.7 per cent, or €511 million, increase in claims on the US over Q4 2016. This rise was driven by growth in claims on the US public sector and non-bank private sector. France, Spain and the Netherlands were also important locations for the foreign claims of Irish banks at end-Q4 2016. Foreign claims on these three countries increased cumulatively by €21 million during the quarter. This was driven by an increase in claims on Spain of €107 million, partly offset by decreases in claims on France and the Netherlands of €70 million and €16 million, respectively. Chart 4: Locations of Irish Foreign Claims Note: Statistical Release – Consolidated Banking Statistics: Foreign Claims Q4 2016 The consolidated banking statistics detail the claims of the domestic banks on non-residents, by counterpart country and sector on an ultimate risk basis i.e. according to the country and sector where the ultimate guarantor of the risk resides. The dataset used is similar in methodology to the Consolidated Banking Statistics published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), but differs in coverage, as it refers only to the domestic Irish banks. The tables can be accessed on the Central Bank of Ireland website. The dataset begins in Q4 2004 and the latest data published relate to end-Q4 2016.
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