Chapter 3 Financing Our Future Financing Our Future How we’ll pay for the Regional Plan Paying for the Regional Plan San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan (Regional Plan) is ambitious. Over the next 35 years, through 2050, the Regional Plan projects that about $204 billion in local, state, and federal tax dollars will be available to build a comprehensive, interconnected transportation system that provides choices. SANDAG is working creatively to leverage available funds in order to maximize every dollar. Even so, there is a finite amount of anticipated funding available over the next three and a half decades. As we mentioned at the end of Chapter 2, this chapter, Financing our Future, and the appendices it references comprise the financial element of the Regional Plan, as required by law. Where Our Transportation Funds Come From, and How We Can Invest Them Federal law requires SANDAG to develop a Regional Plan built on reasonable assumptions of the revenues that will be available during the time period covered by that plan. Building a transportation system we can afford Federal law requires SANDAG to develop a regional plan built on reasonable assumptions of the revenues that will be available during the time period covered by that plan. While we’re anticipating around $204 billion over 35 years, we don’t have all the money right now. Also, a majority of the funding sources are tied to certain types of projects (for example, transit infrastructure or highway operations and maintenance) and we don’t have the authority to interchange them. These constraints come with specific provisions from Congress or the state Legislature. The “revenue constrained scenario” for transportation investments detailed in our Regional Plan plays by those rules. It’s what we can do given the budget we project. From this point on, we’ll refer to the “revenue constrained network” as our investment plan for transportation. Figure 3.1 Major Revenue Sources $204 billion in Year of Expenditure Figure 3.2 Phased Revenues $204 billion in Year of Expenditure 20142020 (8%) TransNet 13% 2021 -2035 (29%) Local 35% State 34% Federal 18% 105 20362050 (63%) Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future Our investment plan will be funded by a combination of local, state, and federal revenues. Local funds make up 48 percent of the total projected revenue, state funds make up 34 percent, and federal funds amount to 18 percent (Figure 3.1). Because funding will not be available all at once, projects will be constructed as the money becomes available. This is shown in Figure 3.2. Table 3.1 outlines income sources within each revenues category. All revenues have been escalated to the year that the money will be spent, and they are based on the escalation factor appropriate for that specific revenue source. 1 It should be noted that the Regional Plan includes assumptions for new fund sources at the local, state, and federal levels. These include a potential new “Quality of Life” sales tax measure collected and managed at the regional level, fees charged for the number of miles driven by cars and trucks, and new gas taxes. While the actual timing and amount of these new fund sources may vary from what is assumed, given how new fund sources have been approved at various times over the past several decades, it is reasonable to assume that new fund sources will continue to be established in the future. None of the new fund sources are assumed to begin prior to 2020, but they would be required in order to complete all of the projects in the Regional Plan. San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 106 Table 3.1 Revenue Sources Estimated Revenues (in millions of YOE dollars) FY FY FY 2014-2020 2021-2035 2036-2050 Total Local TransNet $1,796 $7,454 $13,573 $22,823 TransNet (Bond Proceeds) $1,257 $1,870 $405 $3,532 Transportation Development Act $1,019 $3,695 $6,729 $11,443 Developer Impact Fees $191 $438 $393 $1,022 City/County Local Gas Taxes $871 $1,903 $2,438 $5,212 $1,990 $5,942 $9,257 $17,189 Future Local Revenues for Transportation $169 $3,727 $6,787 $10,683 Toll Road Funding (I-5/I-15/SR11/241) $494 $0 $7,454 $7,948 $5 $119 $192 $316 $48 $337 $1,274 $1,659 $933 $4,776 $9,554 $15,263 $56 $147 $198 $401 Prior Year Funds in Regional Transportation Improvement Program $410 $111 $0 $521 Subtotal $9,239 $30,519 $58,254 $98,012 $67 $248 $617 $932 State Transportation Improvement Program $262 $939 $2,338 $3,539 State Transit Assistance Program $175 $451 $694 $1,320 $1,334 $4,587 $9,529 $15,450 $128 $4,380 $6,219 $10,727 $97 $895 $1,343 $2,335 Transportation Bond/Infrastructure Programs $263 $4,138 $8,127 $12,528 State Managed Federal Programs $403 $1,397 $2,905 $4,705 General Fund/Miscellaneous Local Road Funds Public Private Partnerships/Transit Oriented Development FasTrak® Net Revenues Passenger Fares Motorist Aid Services - Call Box Program State Active Transportation Program State Highway Account for Operations/Maintenance Future State Revenues for Transportation Cap and Trade High-Speed Rail $0 $0 $17,182 $17,182 Prior Year Funds in Regional Transportation Improvement Program $254 $0 $0 $254 Subtotal $2,983 $17,035 $48,954 $68,972 Federal Transit Administration Discretionary $875 $4,315 $1,616 $6,806 Federal Transit Administration Formula Programs $697 $1,827 $6,254 $8,778 Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality/ Regional Surface Transportation Program $485 $1,496 $4,605 $6,586 $4 $37 $86 $127 Other Financing (Grant Anticipation Notes) $547 $0 $0 $547 Future Federal Revenues for Transportation $184 $3,270 $5,377 $8,831 Federal Railroad Administration $39 $467 $787 $1,293 Corridors and Borders Infrastructure/Other Freight Funds $23 $842 $2,287 $3,152 Prior Year Funds in Regional Transportation Improvement Program $305 $14 $0 $319 Subtotal $3,159 $12,268 $21,012 $36,439 $15,381 $59,822 $128,220 $203,423 Federal Federal Highway Administration Discretionary Grand Total Revenue Sources 107 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future Also, certain funds can only be used for certain projects. For example, TransNet sales tax revenue can only be used for specific projects and programs. The same is true for the state’s Active Transportation Program. Some funds will become available on a yearly, ongoing basis; others will be delivered in a single payment at one particular point in time. The timing also can depend on when the state Legislature and federal government pass their budgets. All this means that scheduling projects can be tricky. And certainly, not all of the projects in the Regional Plan can be built at once. SANDAG, as an agency, has purview over a relatively small portion of the overall funds included in this Regional Plan, and therefore must continue to work creatively on how best to leverage the available dollars (Figure 3.3). We have further constraints on when money becomes available during the lifespan of the Regional Plan, and we also have constraints on which dollars stay with SANDAG and which dollars are distributed directly to other agencies to maintain, operate, and rehabilitate the transportation network. For example, the majority of the funds included in the Regional Plan are distributed directly to agencies such as Caltrans and the transit agencies for highway and transit operations and maintenance needs, as well as the cities and County for their local streets and roads. Figure 3.3 San Diego Forward Funding Distribution TransNet 13% Future Local Revenues 5% Regional Discretion 11% Other Agencies' Funds 71% San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 108 Our Investment Plan for Transportation: A Brief Analysis Table 3.2 and Figure 3.4 summarize the nearly $204 billion in transportation expenditures included in the investment plan. 2 Regardless of which agencies expend the funds (as described above), here’s an overall breakdown of how this money will be spent: • Fifty percent is for public transit (29% for capital projects and 21% for operations). • Fifteen percent is for Managed Lanes and connectors, including those that support public transit. • Thirteen percent is for improvements to local streets and roads and rail grade. • Eight percent is for rehabilitating highways and making them work more efficiently. • Six percent is for other highway lanes and connector improvements. • Four percent is for servicing debt. • Three percent is for projects that promote walking and bicycling 3, as well as smart growth. • One percent is for managing the overall transportation network and the demands on it to make it more efficient. 4 More than a third of total expenditures is designated for the operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation of transit, highways, and local streets and roads. 109 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future Figure 3.4 Major Project Expenditures Nearly $204 billion in year of expenditures (YOE) dollars Active Transportation and Smart Growth Incentive Program TDM/TSM 3% 1% Debit Service 4% Local Streets & Roads, and Rail Grade Separations 13% Managed Lanes & Highway Operations/ Maintenance 8% Highways & Connectors (Capital) 6% Transit Capital 29% High Speed Rail Managed Lanes & Connectors (Capital) 15% San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan Transit Operations/ Maintenance 21% 110 Table 3.2 Major Expenditures by Mode Estimated Expenditures (in millions of YOE dollars)a Project Categories FY FY FY 2014-2020 2021-2035 2036-2050 Total Transit Facilities Major New Facilities $2,558 $10,752 $15,469 $28,779 $680 $3,742 $7,341 $11,763 $2,657 $12,056 $24,552 $39,265 $266 $1,206 $2,455 $3,927 $0 $0 $17,182 $17,182 $6,161 $27,756 $66,999 $100,916 $2,344 $9,476 $17,813 $29,633 $306 $224 $8,931 $9,461 Managed Lanes Connectors $14 $888 $503 $1,405 Freeway Connectors $72 $1,025 $265 $1,362 $1,334 $4,587 $9,529 $15,450 $4,070 $16,200 $37,041 $57,311 $3,180 $8,573 $14,857 $26,610 $3,180 $8,573 $14,857 $26,610 $863 $3,834 $4,477 $9,174 $863 $3,834 $4,477 $9,174 $121 $352 $533 $1,006 $0 $0 $720 $720 Active Transportation Program $588 $1,716 $2,597 $4,901 Transportation Systems and Demand Management $398 $1,391 $996 $2,785 $1,107 $3,459 $4,846 $9,412 $15,381 $59,822 $128,220 $203,423 Miscellaneous Capital/Rehabilitation/Replacement Transit Operations ADA and Specialized Transportation Services b High-Speed Rail Subtotal Managed Lanes and Highway Improvements Managed Lanes Highways Operations / Maintenance / Rehabilitation Subtotal Local Streets and Roads (Capital, Rehabilitation, and Operations/Maintenance) Local Streets and Roads Subtotal Debt Service Debt Service Subtotal Active Transportation/Systems Management/Demand Management Smart Growth Incentive Program Regional Rail Grade Separations Subtotal Grand Total Cost a Year of Expenditure (YOE) b ADA and Specialized Transportation Services costs represents 5 percent each of the total transit operations cost (10 percent total) 111 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future The Regional Plan’s major funding sources Local Revenues TransNet Half-Cent Local Sales Tax The county-wide transportation sales tax TransNet, which was first approved in 1987 and expired in 2008, implemented major transit and highway projects. It also funded improvements to local streets and roads, as well as, bike and pedestrian facilities. In November 2004, San Diego County voters approved an extension of TransNet to 2048. The TransNet extension became effective in April 2008. The revenues included in the Regional Plan are based on actual receipts to FY 2014, and they assume an annual increase based on the growth in taxable retail sales as projected by the SANDAG Demographic and Economic Forecasting Model (DEFM). The county-wide transportation sales tax TransNet, which was first approved in 1987 and extended in 2004, implements major transit and highway projects. The amount estimated to be available through 2050 is two years beyond the current expiration of 2048; however, there is an assumption that the sales tax program will continue to be collected beyond 2048. To make the program’s benefits available more quickly, the SANDAG Board of Directors approved jump-starting several regional transportation projects by implementing the TransNet Early Action Program (EAP). The agency has issued bonds under the TransNet extension that so far amount to about $1.5 billion. These bonds support the accelerated delivery of major transit and highway projects across the region. The EAP strategy is to borrow against future TransNet revenues, in order San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 112 to leverage additional federal and state funds. The goal is to complete these projects early, and give people more travel choices as soon as possible. The goal is to complete these projects early, and give people more travel choices – as soon as possible. The TransNet extension includes some added features over the initial program. It supports an innovative $850 million environmental mitigation program to offset biological impacts of future transportation improvements while at the same time reducing overall costs and accelerating the delivery of projects. The extension also provides for a $280 million smart growth incentive fund. In addition, another $280 million are slated for bicycle paths and facilities, pedestrian improvements, neighborhood safety projects, and the Regional Bike Plan Early Action Program. These funds are leveraged to access other funding sources. Developer Impact Fees An element of the TransNet Ordinance requires the region’s 18 cities and the County of San Diego to collect an exaction from the private sector for each new housing unit constructed in their jurisdiction. The Regional Transportation Congestion Improvement Program (RTCIP) has been in effect since July 1, 2008. SANDAG adjusts the minimum fee amount on July 1 of each year, based on analysis of construction cost indices. But it’s no less than 2 percent. The purpose of the adjustment is to ensure that RTCIP retains its purchasing power to improve the regional arterial system. At its February 27, 2015, meeting, the SANDAG Board voted to increase the fee to $2,310 beginning July 1, 2015. Transportation Development Act (TDA) Quarter-Cent Sales Tax By state statute, TDA funds may be used for transit operating or capital purposes, but they are not eligible for use on non-transit-related improvements to highways or local streets and roads. Future year estimates are based on the same growth in taxable retail sales as projected by DEFM as is done for TransNet. Local Gas Tax/General Fund The local agencies receive direct subsidies from the state in the form of gas tax subventions. These subventions are based on a formula derived from the Assembly Bill x8-9 (Evans, 2010) (ABx8 9) fuel tax swap, which considers future fuel consumption, the federal tax rate, and the swap rate. Due to the continued improvement in fuel efficiency in vehicles, the average growth rate for this program is about 1 percent over the Regional Plan period. General funds are road expenditures the agencies spend from their general fund or other local revenues. The data is derived from the annual State Controller’s report, and it’s estimated to grow by about 3 percent per year. Future Local Revenues A provision in the TransNet Extension Ordinance specified that “SANDAG agrees to act on additional regional funding measures (a ballot measure and/or other secure funding commitments) to meet the long-term requirements for implementing habitat conservation plans in the San Diego region, within the timeframe necessary to allow a ballot measure to be considered by the voters no later than four years 113 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future after passage of the TransNet Extension.” A component of the future ballot measure is to fund transit operations. The SANDAG Board has periodically reassessed the timing of a new measure since the passage of TransNet, and has amended the particular section of the Ordinance to extend the deadline from 2008 to 2016. Using the existing TransNet program as the basis for estimating revenues, the assumption is that a quarter-cent of the sales tax would fund transit projects. These revenues are assumed to begin in 2020. The rate of growth assumed is the same as with TransNet and TDA. Passenger Fares These revenues are what passengers pay to ride on public transportation, and they help support transit operations. The revenues are assumed to be available through FY 2019, and are based on the short-term budgets as estimated by the two transit agencies – the North County Transit District (NCTD) and the Metropolitan Transit System (MTS). The farebox recovery ratio, assumed at 35 percent, is continued through the life of the Regional Plan. Other Local Revenues Other locally generated revenues include toll road funding, public/private partnerships, FasTrak revenues, and motorist aid services. Toll road revenues are based on the planned Managed Lanes and would help off-set operational costs and transit services. State Funding State Transportation Improvement Program State funding for transportation improvements comes from taxes on gas and diesel fuels, truck weight fees, and other sources. These funds are distributed by the state to the region through the State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP), which is administered by the California Transportation Commission (CTC). Beginning with the 1998 STIP, a greater share of the STIP was made available to regional agencies such as SANDAG. This gave them the flexibility to better determine how funds should be used. Overall, transportation funding has fluctuated significantly as the economy has gone through ups and downs. For example, the 1998, 2000, and 2002 STIP cycles were built on optimistic funding scenarios, but these were followed by a severely constrained STIP cycle in 2004. The landmark transportation infrastructure bond, Proposition 1B, injected much needed revenues in the middle of the 2006 STIP cycle. With these revenues came some relief to transportation funding at a time when improvements were badly needed. This infusion was short-lived, however, as the Great Recession beginning in 2007 led to flat and even declining gas tax revenues. Interestingly, gas tax revenues also have fallen with the increased number of vehicles on the road that are more fuel efficient or use alternative sources of energy, such as electricity. All these changes have impacted STIP cycles from 2008 through 2014. In short, traditional San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 114 sources of funding that pay for transportation improvements have not kept pace with the demands of a growing population and an aging transportation system. California’s economy has improved in recent years and the state budget has stabilized, but transportation funding continues to be strained. In its 2014 Annual Report, the California Transportation Commission (CTC) urged the Governor and the Legislature to address near-term funding needs to preserve the existing transportation system. The report notes: “For over a decade the Commission has implored the Legislature and the Administration to address this dire situation. No longer do we have the luxury of time; definitive and non-partisan action is required immediately to ensure the economic stability and public safety of the people we Traditional sources of funding that pay for transportation improvements have not kept pace with the demands of a growing population and an aging transportation system. serve.” There are a number of options being discussed to augment revenue sources for transportation. Each comes with both challenges and opportunities for transportation programs. Some of the options include: mileage-based user fees, toll pricing, an increase to the fuel tax, an increase to vehicle weight fees, an increase to other vehicle-related fees, and opportunities for more public-private partnerships. State Highway Operations and Preservation Program (SHOPP) The CTC also is responsible for allocating funds to this program that the state administers. State law requires that these expenditures be given priority over new construction, and they are funded “off the top” of the State Highway Account. Caltrans develops a SHOPP ten-year plan from which projects are prioritized and selected during the SHOPP updates. 115 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future Transportation Bond/Infrastructure Program Although the Legislature has failed to pass a comprehensive and sustainable transportation funding program, it has recognized the need to provide funding. Historically, the Legislature and voters of the state have passed a number of bond measures to fund transportation such as the Traffic Congestion Relief Program, Propositions 108/116, Proposition 42, and Propositions 1A and 1B. Given this history, the Regional Plan includes a bond measure in the future similar to prior measures for transportation projects. The funding assumption is based on the historical share the region has received from these efforts. To be conservative, revenues begin in FY 2020. Future State Revenues for Transportation As noted above, some of the options for funding transportation include a user based mileage fee. Senate Bill 1077 (DeSaulnier) (enacted in 2014 would authorize such a fee. The legislation calls for an advisory committee to study and develop options that can be implemented as a pilot project in 2017. The state of Oregon will start its pilot program in July 2015, while the state of Washington is reviewing the potential for a similar program. Other states around the country are studying its potential as a transportation funding source that may replace or supplement the current gas tax. San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 116 High-Speed Rail The Governor and the state have committed to building a high-speed rail system. Senate Bill 1029 (Hancock, 2012) appropriated $8 billion in federal and state funds to construct the first segment of the high-speed rail in the Central Valley. Based on the current plan, the system will run from San Francisco to the Los Angeles basin by 2029 in less than three hours. The line will be extended north to Sacramento and south to San Diego. There is no specific timeline for the San Diego segment, so the Regional Plan assumes the San Diego segment may be built toward end of the Regional Plan period. 5 Other State Funds Other funds administered by the state include the Active Transportation Program for non-motorized projects, the Cap-and-Trade Program as described in Chapter 2, the State Transit Assistance program dedicated toward public transit operations and capital support, and state managed federal programs such as the Highway Bridge Program. Federal Funding SANDAG is working toward the completion of federally-funded transportation projects, while also seeking additional discretionary funding for improved transportation infrastructure at the border, major transit projects, and other transportation improvements. The agency continues to work with regional, state, and national partners toward the reauthorization of MAP-21 – the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act. MAP-21, which President Obama signed into law in 2012, is the first long-term highway authorization bill signed into law since 2005. SANDAG is collaborating with other regional agencies, transportation providers, organizations, and associations statewide to develop a set of principles for the next reauthorization of MAP-21. SANDAG is collaborating with other regional agencies, transportation providers, organizations, and associations statewide to develop a set of principles for the next reauthorization of MAP-21. The effort to build support for these principles continues, so that California can present a clear and unified position as federal legislation is developed. It remains unclear when MAP-21 will be reauthorized. The Highway Trust Fund, which is the source of most federal funding for the nation’s roads and transit infrastructure, has seen revenues fall short of expenditures for more than a decade. Drawing down trust fund balances and transferring money from the general fund have served as temporary fixes, but these measures have not addressed the underlying challenge of declining revenues from the federal fuel excise tax of 18.4 cents per gallon on gasoline and 24.4 cents per gallon on diesel fuel. The Congressional Budget Office projects that, without reforms, shortfalls in the Highway Trust Fund will grow to $162 billion over the next ten years. As with the state funds, the Regional Plan assumes several potential options, such as an increase in the federal fuel tax on gasoline. 117 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future While these efforts are underway, the Regional Plan assumes continuation of the various funding programs as well as new federal revenue sources based on the discussions and actions by Congress. Federal Transit Administration Programs The Regional Plan assumes that the formula programs – Sections 5307, 5337, 5339, 5310, and 5311 – will continue. The majority of these funds are passed through to the two transit agencies while others also are passed through to social services transportation providers. The Regional Plan also includes assumptions of discretionary funding for both large scale projects under the New Starts Program as well as smaller projects under the Small Starts program. The Regional Plan also includes the use of Grant Anticipation Notes (GAN) backed by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) New Starts Program specifically for the Mid-Coast Trolley project. The project is rated very high in the New Starts Program for FY 2015. Due to the anticipated long duration to fully appropriate all the New Starts funds, SANDAG plans to securitize the FTA funds in order to complete the project. Federal Highway Administration Programs As with the FTA formula programs, the Regional Plan assumes the continuation of the FHWA formula programs, which include the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement program, and the Regional Surface Transportation Program. Discretionary funds are not included in the early years; however, the Regional Plan assumes these funds would become available after 2020. Future Federal Revenues for Transportation Like California state legislators, federal lawmakers continue to discuss approaches for a long-term, sustainable transportation bill. The federal gas tax has not been increased since 1993 and has not been indexed for inflation. As a result, the Highway Trust Fund has been running on empty. Congress does recognize the crisis and various proposals have been introduced and discussed. In the meantime, the Regional Plan assumes a potential increase to the federal gas tax, beginning in 2020 will be conservative. Addressing Potential Funding Shortfalls Planning for investments funded with anticipated income can be challenging. Table O.1 in Appendix O: Transportation Financial Background reviews each revenue source, the risks associated with relying on them for projects, and what can be done if anticipated revenues fall short. Although the revenue forecast is based on trends for existing revenue sources as well as reasonable assumptions about potential changes in the future, from time to time there are significant changes that cannot be easily predicted. These include economic downturns and the approval of new funding sources. Fortunately, the plan is reviewed and updated every four San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 118 years to take into account these changes, and to make the necessary adjustments to the timing and availability of revenues to pay for all the projects in the Regional Plan. Future Needs What if our region had an unlimited budget? SANDAG considered this too, in order to get a clear-eyed view of what the region is actually expected to need in the years leading up to mid-century. This ”Unconstrained Needs Analysis” provided a cost estimate for additional projects, programs, and services that would meet our transportation demands through 2050. This included the costs for operating, maintaining, and rehabilitating the transportation system regionwide. Obviously, this would cost more than our actual investment plan, but it’s worth looking at because it shows the total actual needs for the region (See Table A.4 in Appendix A: Transportation Projects, Costs, and Phasing). 6 Looking Ahead In the next chapter, we’ll review the tangible benefits of the Regional Plan, many of which come from the transportation, smart growth, and environmental mitigation investments discussed in Chapter 2. These are benefits for people throughout the region, regardless of where they’re from, their economic circumstances, or their background. Our Regional Plan was created to achieve gains across our region, enhancing the quality of life for all of us. 119 Chapter 3:: Financing Our Future Endnotes 1 For more details about each source of funding, see Appendix O: Transportation Financial Background. 2 List of Projects in our investment plan can be found in Appendix A: Transportation Projects, Costs, and Phasing. 3 Active Transportation Program includes: Regional Program, Local Bike Projects, Local Pedestrian/Safety/Traffic Calming, and Safe Routes to School. 4 For a more detailed breakdown of the Transportation Systems Management and Transpotation Demand Management expenditures by phase, please see Appendix E. 5 Although High-speed Rail (HSR) is not a proposed Regional Plan project, since its funding and implementation will be determined by the State of California rather than by entities within this region, its revenues and expenditures are included in the Regional Plan because the HSR segment between Los Angeles and San Diego, via the Inland Empire, is expected to provide connectivity for the San Diego region with the rest of the state and the project. Therefore, it is an integral part of the planned transportation infrastructure for the region. 6 A list of these unconstrained projects is shown in Appendix A. San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan 120
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz