Exploring Natural Resources in
Mozambique, Will it Be a Blessing or a
Curse?
Aurélio Bucuane
Direcção Nacional de Estudos e Análise Política
Ministério da Planificação e Desenvolvimento
Peter Mulder
Conference Paper nº 04
Conferência Inaugural do IESE
“Desafios para a investigação social e económica em Moçambique”
19 de Setembro de 2007
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3.0%
HDI rank
(1 - 177)
0.0%
0.3%
1.7%
67.9%
34.0%
0.1%
6.1%
24.4%
62.3%
45.3%
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10.8%
7.0%
2.7%
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1.9%
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1.3%
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GDP per capita GDP per capita,
(US$)
PPP (US$)
2000
2000
2000
158
142
123
168
168
57
1
168
166
37
61
5
3
120
131
6
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10
175
11
165
174
160
332
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208
208
6,326
39,322
208
328
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3,881
23,198
20,285
2,910
3,135
27,012
22,750
34,599
231
37,409
166
223
715
878
961
6,127
874
874
8,951
35,132
874
777
9,197
8,952
27,880
26,181
9,434
7,525
24,526
26,075
34,114
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25,974
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Exportações dos Rescursos Naturais (combustiveis, ores, metals) em % do PIB, 1975
Export of Natural Resources (fuel, ores, metals) as % of GDP, 1975
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2000
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2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
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8
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Exchange Rate (MT/US$)
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Inflation Rate
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2000
&
Voice and
Political Stability
Accountability
1.45
1.29
1.48
1.13
1.18
1.14
1.18
1.14
1.33
1.22
1.11
1.08
0.86
1.06
0.47
0.66
0.79
0.75
0.58
0.33
0.96
-0.31
-0.35
0.15
0.26
0.21
-0.31
-0.09
-0.30
-0.33
-0.36
-0.31
-0.25
-0.73
AVERAGE
SWEDEN
AUSTRALIA
CANADA
GERMANY
NORWAY
UNITED STATES
JAPAN
CHILE
BOTSWANA
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
SOUTH AFRICA
MALAYSIA
MALI
MALAWI
MOZAMBIQUE
BURKINA FASO
ZAMBIA
$
1.68
1.64
1.61
1.51
1.50
1.48
1.12
1.06
0.77
0.49
0.27
0.23
-0.20
-0.33
-0.40
-0.41
-0.46
(
Government
Effectiveness
1.77
1.89
1.94
1.92
1.63
1.74
1.15
1.31
0.84
0.61
0.40
0.71
-0.72
-0.57
-0.53
-0.38
-0.63
Regulatory
Quality
1.30
1.43
1.29
1.30
0.87
1.45
0.73
1.19
0.71
0.73
-0.03
0.28
0.17
-0.17
-0.12
-0.06
0.25
Rule of Law
1.87
1.89
1.87
1.84
1.90
1.79
1.66
1.23
0.56
0.38
0.15
0.39
-0.69
-0.59
-0.71
-0.61
-0.55
Control of
Corruption
2.43
2.00
2.25
1.67
2.07
1.73
1.28
1.50
0.95
0.31
0.49
0.21
-0.45
-0.23
-0.39
-0.76
-0.84
GABON
-0.58
-0.49
-0.45
-0.72
-0.36
-0.65
-0.81
NIGERIA
-0.99
-0.61
-1.64
-1.00
-0.45
-1.10
-1.16
CONGO
-1.43
-1.55
-1.85
-1.80
-1.09
-1.26
-1.05
ANGOLA
-1.78
-1.47
-2.47
-1.86
-1.85
-1.52
-1.52
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Aluminium - MOZAL
.& /
.. L
F8 M
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1,106
580
1,117
586
1,861
976
160
725
1,974
1,035
1,993
1,046
2,003
1,051
2,013
1,056
2,023
1,061
2,034
1,067
2,044
1,072
2,054
1,077
531
1,692
887
845
-41
1,954
1,025
526
1,128
592
212
324
929
938
948
953
957
962
967
972
977
124
160
242
124
160
247
124
160
40
186
240
-467
205
264
256
215
277
437
217
280
442
217
280
451
217
280
456
217
280
460
217
280
465
217
280
470
217
280
475
217
280
480
Electrcity, Hydro - HCB
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Export
Import
Trade Balance Effect
206
219
233
245
250
252
255
257
260
262
265
268
270
273
206
219
233
245
250
252
255
257
260
262
265
268
270
273
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Payment
Balance of Payment Effect
16
2.5
62
142
16
2.5
66
151
16
2.5
70
161
16
2.5
73
169
16
2.5
75
172
16
2.5
76
174
16
2.5
76
176
16
2.5
77
178
16
2.5
78
179
16
2.5
79
181
16
2.5
79
183
16
2.5
80
185
16
2.5
81
187
16
2.5
82
189
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
127
128
129
130
132
133
0
0
270
-270
360
-360
450
-450
180
-180
180
-180
125
127
128
129
130
132
133
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Repayment
Balance of Payment Effect
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
7
112
6
10
7
112
8
10
7
112
9
10
7
112
10
10
7
112
11
10
7
112
13
10
7
112
14
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
0
0
141
143
144
146
140
141
143
96
97
98
99
90
-90
270
-270
315
-315
45
96
143
144
146
140
141
143
96
97
98
99
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.2
3.6
56
37
5.2
3.6
56
83
5.2
3.6
56
84
5.2
3.6
56
86
5.2
3.6
56
80
5.2
3.6
56
82
5.2
3.6
56
83
5.2
3.6
56
37
5.2
3.6
56
37
5.2
3.6
56
38
5.2
3.6
56
39
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
Profits Repatriated
Debt Service
Balance of Payment Effect
Electricity, Hydro - MPHANDA NKUWA
Electricity - Thermal Natural Gas - Inhambane
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Repayment
Balance of Payment Effect
)
=
Electricity - Thermal Coal - Moatize
K=
.& /
.
. L
F8 M
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
0
0
0
0
0
221
223
225
341
345
348
351
355
359
0
0
150
-150
270
-270
270
-270
90
131
180
43
180
45
45
296
345
348
351
355
359
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Repayment
Balance of Payment Effect
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-150
-270
-270
7
5
91
35
7
5
91
-53
7
5
91
-51
11
7
91
198
11
7
91
246
11
7
91
250
11
7
91
253
11
7
91
257
11
7
91
260
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
148
163
168
171
175
178
182
186
189
193
197
201
205
132
148
163
168
171
175
178
182
186
189
193
197
201
205
19
21
23
24
25
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0.2
0.2
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
472.5
270
-270
450
-450
90
383
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
473
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
189.0
132.3
70
180
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
189.0
132.3
70
270
Heavy Sands - CORRIDOR
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
0
0
0
238
241
244
246
249
251
254
257
260
703
711
96
-96
288
-288
200
-200
5
233
1
240
1
243
1
245
100
149
300
-49
100
154
257
260
703
711
4
12
35
33
49
49
50
50
51
51
52
52
141
143
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
119
122
125
191
196
200
205
209
214
219
224
229
234
239
50
69
122
125
191
196
200
205
209
214
219
224
229
234
239
27
26
14
30
48
46
14
62
51
48
14
62
55
52
14
125
59
56
14
126
62
59
14
127
65
62
14
129
69
66
14
130
73
69
14
131
77
73
14
132
81
77
14
133
85
81
14
134
89
85
14
135
94
89
14
136
Natural Gas - SASOL
Export
Import
Trade Balance Effect
Balance of Payment Effect
Coal - MOATIZE
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Repayment
Balance of Payment Effect
Heavy Sands - MOMA
Export
Import
Import construction phase
Trade Balance Effect
Profits
Profits Repatriated
Debt Repayment
Balance of Payment Effect
2007
;
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