Programme for the 26th Annual Conference
Sunday 17 July
10.00-4.00
Short courses – Rooms TBC
Monday 18 July
8.30-9.00
Registration – James Watt Centre foyer
9.00-9.15
Welcoming remarks – James Watt Auditorium
9.15-10.30
President’s Invited lecture – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
A progression in G: time series, spatial statistics, and the trajectories of ecological
particles
Mevin Hooten – Colorado State University
10.30-11.00
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
11.00-12.30
Statistical ecology – James Watt Auditorium
Organizer: Ruth King – University of Edinburgh
Chair: Ruth King – University of Edinburgh
Wildlife survey models: thinned spatial point processes with unknown thinning
probabilities
David Borchers – University of St Andrews
Closed population mark-recapture in continuous-time
Matthew Schofield – University of Otago
Incorporating individual time-varying covariates and random effects in multi-state
models
Rachel McCrea – University of Kent at Canterbury
11.00-12.30
Spatial and/or spatio-temporal modelling of environmental processes – The
Carnegie Rooms
Organizer: Alexandra Schmidt – Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Chair: Erin Peterson - Queensland University of Technology
Bayesian models for climate reconstruction from pollen records
Lasse Holmström – University of Oulu
Alternating nonhomogenous Poisson processes for modeling threshold exceedances
in continuous time
Erin Schliep – University of Missouri
Using Archaeological Data to Assess the Extent of Past Swedish Agriculture:
Spatio-temporal Point Processes with Uncertain Dating
Johan Lindström – Lund University
11.00-12.30
Environmental Official Statistics – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizers: Alessandro Fassò – University of Bergamo and Angela Ferruzza – Italian National
Institute of Statistics
Chair: Angela Ferruzza – Italian National Institute of Statistics
Environmental statistics in the Netherlands
Arthur Denneman – Statistics Netherlands
Improving statistical knowledge to the analysis of Climate change and Extreme
events and disasters: role and contribution of National Statistical Offices
Angela Ferruzza – Istat
Building Energy Ratings in Ireland 2009-2015
Gerry Brady – CSO Ireland
ISTAT Survey on energy consumption of residential sector: modeling for the production of estimates by end use
Giovanni Puglisi – ENEA
12.30-1.30
1.30-2.00
Lunch – James Watt Centre foyer
TIES 2016 Abdel El-Shaarawi Young Researcher’s Award – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Sylvia Esterby – University of British Columbia Okanagan
Statistical Process Monitoring and Risk Assessment for Engineering and Spatial
Environmental Applications
Ying Sun – King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
2.00-3.00
Plenary lecture – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Duncan Lee – University of Glasgow
Environmental Exposure Assessment in Spatial Health Modeling: why is it important?
Andrew Lawson – Medical University of South Carolina
3.00-3.30
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
3.30-5.00
Biodiversity measures and modelling I – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Alessio Pollice – University of Bari and Giovanna Jona Lasinio – “Sapienza”
University of Rome
Chair: Alessio Pollice – University of Bari
Concepts and measures for the quantification of biodiversity
Eric Marcon – AgroParisTech
Understanding biodiversity - contributions from spatial point process methodology
Janine Illian – University of St Andrews
Empirical Bayes Estimation of Species Distributions with Overdispersed Data
Fabio Divino – University of Molise
3.30-5.00
High dimensional environmental data analysis – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizers: Alessandro Fassò – University of Bergamo, Francesco Finazzi – University of Bergamo, and Lelys Bravo – Universidad Simon Bolivar
Chair: Francesco Finazzi – University of Bergamo
Aggregation-cokriging as a gapfiller for remotely sensed NDVI data
Reinhard Furrer – University of Zurich
Assessing common spatio-temporal patterns in large environmental datasets
Lucia Paci – University of Bologna
Understanding of High Dimensional Environmental Data
Mikhail Kanevski – University of Lausanne
3.30-5.00
Change-point methods and their applications to environmental data – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizer: Stergios Fotopoulos – Washington State University
Chair: Ying Zhang – Acadia University
General asymptotics for the change-point time
Robert Lund – Clemson University
Abrupt changes in climate and ecosystems
Claudie Beaulieu – University of Southampton
New type of change detection algorithms
Edit Gombay – University of Alberta
Spectral method for Estimation of an unknown change-point
Stergios Fotopoulos – Washington State University
Tuesday 19 July
9.00-10.30
Biodiversity measures and modelling II – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Ruth King – University of Edinburgh and Ayesha Ali – University of Guelph
Chair: Erin Peterson – Queensland University of Technology
Assessing Convention for Biological Diversity targets: can national monitoring
schemes deliver?
Steven T. Buckland – University of St Andrews
Using spatial statistics to illuminate ecological processes and anthropogenic pressures in tropical rainforests
Calum Brown – University of Edinburgh
Biodiversity measures from the pollination networks
Ayesha Ali – University of Guelph, Canada
9.00-10.30
Models for Dependent Data with Environmental Time Series Applications – The
Wardlaw Rooms
Organizer: Ying Zhang – Acadia University
Chair: Robert Lund – Clemson University
Developments in Statistical and Time Series Models for Censored Data
Ian McLeod – Western University
Atmospheric CO2 and Global temperatures: the strength and nature of their dependence
Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson – Lancaster University
Test for Trend in Blocked Time Series Data: Harvesting Maple Syrup in Nova
Scotia, Canada
Ying Zhang – Acadia University
10.30-11.00
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
11.00-12.30
Functional Data – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Grace Chiu – Australian National University, Claire Miller – University of Glasgow, and Marian Scott – University of Glasgow
Chair: Claire Miller – University of Glasgow
Functional clustering of MERIS and AATSR lake quality and temperature data
Ruth O’Donnell – University of Glasgow
Modeling the Health Effects of Wildfire Pollution though Random Functions over
Trees
Donatello Telasca – UCLA
Functional clustering of Chlorophyll - a satellite data
Carlo Gaetan – Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Geographical weighted regression for spatially dependent functional data: a nonparametric based approach
Elvira Romano – Second University of Naples
11.00-12.30
Contributed 1 – The Carnegie Rooms
Chair: Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir – Norwegian Computing Center
Verification of Interval Probability Forecasts
Keith Mitchell – University of Exeter
Evaluating forecasts when the truth is uncertain
Christopher Ferro – University of Exeter
Efficient estimation of the continuous ranked probability score, with application to
meteorological ensemble forecasts
Michaël Zamo – Météo-France
Geological feature metric classification as a tool to preserve realism in reservoir
model update
Alexandra Kuznetsova – Heriot-Watt University
Statistical Comparison of Bivariate Circular Distributions in the Characterisation
of Wind Direction over Complex Terrain
Rachael Quill – University of New South Wales
Anthropogenic Influences on Spatial and Temporal Variation in Fire Activity
Kamil Feridun Turkman – Universidade de Lisboa
11.00-12.30
Contributed 2 – The Wardlaw Rooms
Chair: Robert Erhardt – Wake Forest University
Multivariate Time Series to Estimate Location and Climate Change Effects from
Historical Temperatures
Brenton R Clarke – Murdoch University
Assessing time-series of daily mean temperature data for time-dependency in residual variation
David Elston – Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS)
Modelling the frequency of short duration rainfall events in the UK
Ilaria Prosdocimi – University of Bath
Improving multivariate statistical models for flood risk assessment
Ross Towe – JBA Trust/Lancaster University
Statistical methodology for non-stationary extremes
Yousra El-Bachir - Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
12.30-1.45
Lunch – James Watt Centre foyer
1.45-3.00
Plenary lecture – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Peter Craigmile – The Ohio State University
Statistics in the Cognitive/Risk Era: Bridging knowledge, solutions and pathways
to a sustainable world
Nathaniel Newlands – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
3.00-3.30
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
3.30-5.00
Quantifying Environmental Benefits – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Grace Chiu – Australian National University, Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and
Hydrology, Edinburgh, and Jan Dick – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
Chair: Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
An Extension of Spatial Dependence Models for Short-Term Temperature Derivative Risk
Robert Erhardt – Wake Forest University
Is No Net Loss Possible? Evaluating Policy Instruments For Reducing Deforestation With A Growing Economy
Grace Chiu – The Australian National University
Integrated valuation of ecosystem services on a rural Scottish estate
Jan Dick – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
3.30-5.00
Statistical Climatology – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizer: Peter Craigmile – The Ohio State University
Chair: Peter Craigmile – The Ohio State University
The Challenge of Creating Historical Climate Products for the United States
William Kleiber – University of Colorado at Boulder
Paths and pitfalls in model evaluation: The importance of being proper
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir – Norwegian Computing Center
From the ground up: data science to agronomic insight
David Clifford – The Climate Corporation
3.30-5.00
Environmental criminology and massive data – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizer: Jorge Mateu – University Jaume I of Castellon
Chair: Jorge Mateu – University Jaume I of Castellon
Recent Strategies for Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Massive Spatial Data
Rajarshi Guhaniyogi – University California, Santa Cruz
A spatial partitioning of Police Districts
M. Camacho-Collados – University of Granada
5.00-6.00
6.00-7.30
Annual General Meeting – James Watt Auditorium
Posters and reception – Poster walkway and James Watt Centre foyer
(List of posters on next page)
7.30
Scottish entertainment: Haggis and Ceilidh with Heeliegoleerie (http://www.
heeliegoleerie.com)
Posters
1.
Combining sensor data with a probabilistic road surface temperature model for enhanced real
time forecasting
Thomas Bennett – Aston University
2.
Model assessment and feature selection in remote sensing of vegetation in a high-dimensional
setting
Alexander Brenning – University of Jena
3.
Does exposure to sonar change the feeding behaviour of rorqual baleen whales?
Louise Burt – University of St Andrews
4.
The use of location specific patient profiles and seasonal patterns to identify homogeneous
disease clusters
Melissa Cruz – Tufts University
5.
Discretized extreme value distributions: from theoretical justifications to application to exceptional avalanche episodes
Pascal Dkengne Sielenou – IRSTEA, centre de Grenoble-France
6.
Covariate-dependent Fixed Rank Kriging
Nan-Jung Hsu – National Tsing-Hua University
7.
Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health
Guowen Huang – University of Glasgow
8.
Estimating the changes in health inequalities across Scotland
Eilidh Jack – University of Glasgow
9.
Modelling macroinvertebrate communities under pesticide stress: Bayesian parameter inference and insights into community dynamic
Mira Kattwinkel – University of Koblenz-Landau
10.
Recent record-breaking heat waves in Central Europe in the climate change context
Jan Kysely – Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS
11.
Modelling groundwater contamination: a comparison of spatial and spatiotemporal methods
Marnie McLean – University of Glasgow
12.
A Gaussian process model for representing the uncertainty and long-term change in typhoon
behaviours and its application
Shin’ya Nakano – The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
13.
Modelling fire density observed per week day in each county of USA
Paula Pereira – ESTSetúal-IPS and CEAUL
14.
A multivariate circular-linear hidden Markov model for distributions-oriented wind forecast
verification
Alessio Pollice – Universitá di Bari
15.
Designing a discrete choice experiment for peatland restoration
Jacqueline Potts – Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS)
16.
Characterisation of near-Earth magnetic field data for space weather monitoring
Qingying Shu – University of Glasgow
17.
L-moment homogeneity test in trivariate regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation
events in the Czech Republic
Tereza Šimková – Technical University of Liberec
18.
Assessing changes in the diet of individual grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) over time based on
QFASA diet estimates
Connie Stewart – University of New Brunswick Saint John
19.
Disease isopleth mapping using Poisson regression area-to-point kriging and remotely sensed
data
Phuong N Truong – ITC, University of Twente
20.
Linking satellite remote sensing based environmental predictors to disease: an application to
the spatiotemporal modelling of schistosomiasis in Ghana
Madeline Wrable – Tufts University
Wednesday 20 July
8.45-10.45
Special event – The Carnegie Rooms
Merging mixed realities and statistical models to improve conservation
Erin Peterson and Kerrie Mengersen – Queensland University of Technology
8.45-10.45
Special event – The Wardlaw Rooms
Bayesian Modeling of spatial health data with INLA
Andrew Lawson – Medical University of South Carolina
10.30-11.00
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
11.00-12.30
Environment and health – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: GRASPA/Alessandro Fassò and Michela Cameletti – University of Bergamo
Chair: Alastair Rushworth – University of Strathclyde
The effects of network design when assessing the effects of air pollution on health
Gavin Shaddick – University of Bath
Using ecological propensity score to account for residual confounding in the association between air pollution and health
Marta Blangiardo – Imperial College London
Health effects of airborne particle mixtures
Monica Pirani – Imperial College London
11.00-12.30
Statistical learning for environmental and geoscience prediction problems and uncertainty quantification – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizers: Vasily Demyanov – Heriot Watt University and Mikhail Kanevski – University of
Lausanne
Chair: Vasily Demyanov – Heriot Watt University
Spatio-temporal sub-pixel mapping of time-series images
Peter Atkinson – University of Lancaster
Hidden Markov Models in Environmental and Geoscience Applications
Sean A. McKenna – IBM Research
A New Predictive Hotspot Method for Sparse Spatio-Temporal Point Process
Monsuru Adepeju – University College London
11.00-12.30
Extremes for climate and environment I – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizers: Liliane Bel – AgroParisTech and Ruth King – University of Edinburgh
Chair: Carlo Gaetan – Universit Ca’ Foscari
Extreme value analysis of North Sea storms
Ioannis Papastathopoulos – University of Edinburgh
Simulation of space-time extreme wave processes to assess coastal hazards
Romain Chailan – Twin Solutions / University of Montpellier
Estimation of risk measures for extreme pluviometrical measurements
Jonathan el Methni – Paris 5 University
12.30-1.15
Plenary Panel Discussion – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Bronwyn Harch - Queensland University of Technology
The Internet of things for resilient rural landscapes
David Elston – Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS)
David Clifford – Climate Corporation
Jan Dick – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
1.15-2.00
Lunch – James Watt Centre foyer
Thursday 21 July
9.00-10.30
Spatio-temporal modelling of disease risk – James Watt Auditorium
Organizer: Duncan Lee – University of Glasgow
Chair: Duncan Lee – University of Glasgow
On Bayesian P-splines in disease mapping
Lola Ugarte – Public University of Navarre
Spatio-temporal modelling of heart disease in New South Wales, Australia
Craig Anderson – University of Technology Sydney
Bayesian mixture models for estimating regional trends in space and time
Gary Napier – University of Glasgow
9.00-10.30
Uncertainty Quantification in Environmental Prediction – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizer: Thordis Thorarinsdottir – Norwegian Computing Center
Chair: Thordis Thorarinsdottir – Norwegian Computing Center
Can a regional climate model reproduce observed extreme temperatures?
Peter Craigmile – The Ohio State University
On constraining projections of future climate change using observations and simulations from multiple climate models
Phil Sansom – University of Exeter
Statistical analysis of extreme floods a civil engineering perspective
Thomas Kjeldsen – University of Bath
9.00-10.30
Circular data in Environmental sciences – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizer: Giovanna Jona Lasinio – “Sapienza” University of Rome
Chair: Giovanna Jona Lasinio – “Sapienza” University of Rome, Italy
Multiple testing of local maxima for detection of peaks on the sphere
Domenico Marinucci – University of Rome Tor Vergata
Hidden Markov Models for the analysis of environmental cylindrical data
Francesco Lagona – University of Roma TRE
Testing for modes in circular environmental data
Rosa Crujeiras – University of Santiago de Compostela
10.30-11.00
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
11.00-12.30
RSS Glasgow/Edinburgh and Env. Stats Section Session – James Watt Auditorium
Organizer: Claire Miller and Ron Smith – RSS Glasgow local group, RSS Edinburgh local group,
and RSS Env Stats section
Chair: Claire Miller – RSS Glasgow Chair/University of Glasgow
Is time really a healer? Building distributed lag models with varying smoothness
penalties
Alastair Rushworth – University of Strathclyde
Quantifying the spatial inequality and temporal trends in maternal smoking rates
in Glasgow
Duncan Lee – University of Glasgow
Applications of Bayesian Belief Networks for studying ecosystem services
Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
11.00-12.30
Contributed 3 – The Carnegie Rooms
Chair: Luigi Sedda – Lancaster University
The effect of automated taxa identication errors in biological indices
Johanna Ärje – University of Jyvaskyla
Recent advances in the analysis of multi-state capture-recapture data
Ruth King – University of Edinburgh
An adapted non-parametric intensity estimator for linear networks: Modelling
anti-social behaviour in an urban environment
Francisco Javier Rodrı́guez Cortés – Universitat Jaume I
Temporal Modeling of Enterococci Concentrations at Five Recreational Beaches
James Crooks – National Jewish Health
L-moment estimation for models with time-dependent parameters in climate
changes studies
Jan Picek – Technical University of Liberec
Combining new statistical methods for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts
Robin Williams – University of Exeter
11.00-12.30
Contributed 4 – The Wardlaw Rooms
Chair: Maria Franco Villoria – University of Turin
Spatio-temporal data fusion of in-lake and remote sensing chlorophyll-a data using
statistical downscaling
Craig Wilkie – University of Glasgow
Mixed model FPCA for sparse remote-sensing data
Mengyi Gong – University of Glasgow
Global changes in ocean productivity over the satellite era
Matthew Hammond – University of Southampton
Resolution Adaptive Fixed-Rank Kriging
Hsin-Cheng Huang – Academia Sinica
Some preliminary results on functional spatio-temporal geostatistical analysis: application on atmospheric problems
Ferdinand Ndongo – University of Bergamo
Functional data techniques for sea bottom classification in coastal environments
Javier Tarrı́o-Saavedra - Universidade da Coruña
12.30-1.45
Lunch – James Watt Centre foyer
1.45-3.00
Secure Network sponsored lecture – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Marian Scott – University of Glasgow
Dynamic Spatial temporal modeling of the impact of air pollution on adverse pregnancy outcomes
Brian Reich – North Carolina State University
3.00-3.30
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
3.30-5.00
Environmental Risk – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Leyls Bravo de Guenni – Universidad Simon Bolivar and Grace Chiu – Australian
National University
Chair: Grace Chiu – Australian National University
Climate Extremes: Attributions and Future Projections
Richard L. Smith – University of North Carolina and SAMSI
Assessing Regional PM2.5 Concentration Around Beijing
Shuyi Zhang – Peking University
A Temporal-Spatial Analysis of Potential Risk Factors in Water Quality in the
Florida Basins
Susan Simmons – University of North Carolina at Wilmington
3.30-5.00
Vector-borne disease mapping – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizer: Luigi Sedda – Lancaster University
Chair: Lola Ugarte – Public University of Navarre
Outbreak response forecasting for vector borne diseases
Chris Jewell – Lancaster University
A geostatistical model for analysing armed conflicts and malaria
Luigi Sedda – Lancaster University
The role of statistical models in tsetse control: theory vs practice
Michelle Stanton – Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine
3.30-5.00
Methods for Temporal or Spatial-Temporal Environmental Data – The Wardlaw
Rooms
Organizer: Sylvia Esterby – University of British Columbia Okanagan
Chair: Brian Reich – North Carolina State University
A quick approximate algebraic propagation procedure in high dimensional dynamic
systems: An environmental example
Ali S. Gargoum – United Arab Emirates University
What Does Moran’s I Really Tell Us?
Yi Xiong – Simon Fraser University
Trends in seasonal extremes of a fire danger index
Sylvia Esterby – University of British Columbia Okanagan
7.00
Conference Dinner – Playfair library
Friday 22 July
8.45-10.15
Ecosystem Services – James Watt Auditorium
Organizers: Ron Smith and Jan Dick – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
Chair: Jan Dick – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
Smart study design trade-offs between using structured and unstructured data for
biodiversity monitoring by Citizen Scientists
Stephen Baillie – British Trust for Ornithology
Mapping Natural Capital
Peter Henrys – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster
Projections of future land use in the UK and ecosystem services
Amanda Thomson – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
8.45-10.15
Sensors and the environment – The Carnegie Rooms
Organizers: SECURE/Marian Scott – University of Glasgow
Chair: Marian Scott – University of Glasgow
Time-varying Dynamic Functional Principal Components
Amira Elayouty – University of Glasgow
Markov switching models for high-frequency time series from automatic monitoring
of animals
Luigi Spezia – Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS)
Quantile regression for functional data
Maria Franco Villoria – University of Turin
Earthquake epicentre location in a dense sensor network of smartphones
Francesco Finazzi – University of Bergamo
8.45-10.15
Extremes for climate and environment II – The Wardlaw Rooms
Organizers: Liliane Bel – AgroParisTech and Ruth King – University of Edinburgh
Chair: Liliane Bel – AgroParisTech
A comparison of spatial extreme value models: application to precipitation data
Quentin Sebille – Lyon University
Spatial modeling of drought events
Marco Oesting – Siegen University
Butterflies, Black swans and Dragon kings: How to use the Dynamical Systems
Theory to build a “zoology” of mid-latitude circulation atmospheric extremes?
Davide Faranda – Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences (LSCE)
10.15-10.45
Break – James Watt Centre foyer
10.45-11.15
2014 Wiley-TIES Best Environmetrics Paper Award – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
“Constructing valid spatial processes on the sphere using kernel convolutions”, by
M.J. Heaton, M. Katzfuss, C. Berrett and D.W. Nychka
Presenting: Candace Berrett – Brigham Young University
11.15-11.45
2015 Wiley-TIES Best Environmetrics Paper Award – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Ron Smith – Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh
“Local generalised method of moments: an application to point process-based rainfall models”, by Jo M. Kaczmarska, Valerie S. Isham and Paul Northrop
Presenting: Paul Northrop – University College London
11.45-1.00
J Stuart Hunter Lecture – James Watt Auditorium
Chair: Adrian Bowman - University of Glasgow
Priors and Problems: Using One to Inform about the Other
Kerrie Mengersen – Queensland University of Technology
1.00–1.05
Closing remarks – James Watt Auditorium
1.05-2.00
Lunch – James Watt Centre foyer
2.00
End of conference