Version 2.0 University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture Spring 2015 Dr. Héctor Germán Rodríguez Dr. Jennie Popp CONTENTS AT A GLANCE Introduction Software requirements Quick start guide Getting started 1- Initial input 2- Navigating the application 2.1 – Soil preparation, establishment and maintenance screens 2.1.1 – Depreciation (Amortization schedule) 2.2 – Production years 1, 2, 3 and full production 2.3 – Summary 2.4 – Economics 2.4.1 – Breakeven analysis 2.4.2 – Sensitivity analysis 2.4.3 – Risk analysis 3- Help and other functions Glossary Contact us Disclaimer INTERACTIVE SUSTAINABLE APPLE BUDGET USER GUIDE (Version 2.0) INTRODUCTION This interactive tool is designed to represent a real organic apple orchard using information gathered at the University of Arkansas Experiment and Extension Station located in Fayetteville, Arkansas as default values. The purpose of this tool is twofold: 1) to assist producers in the evaluation of costs, revenues and risks associated with their apple orchard and 2) to assess the changes to cost, revenue and risk as expected costs, revenue prices and/or yields change. The production budget components of the tool estimate gross revenues, variable costs, fixed costs and total net returns for 18 years of production using the tool’s default data or information entered by the user. But what makes this tool unique is that in includes additional economic components not found in production budgets that: 1) estimate the operation’s breakeven (price and yield) points, 2) conduct sensitivity analyzes (answering “What if” questions related to changes in costs and revenues), and provide a risk assessment (regarding the probability of obtaining positive net returns during the life of the apple orchard). This program was written at the University of Arkansas and was funded by the Organic Agriculture Research and Extension Initiative (USDA-OREI). SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS This application employs standard Microsoft Windows graphical elements so that anyone familiar with the Microsoft Windows environment should find this organic apple budget easy to navigate. Familiarity with the basics of mouse operation and navigating standard Windows objects such as menus, windows, dialog boxes, scroll bars, and toolbars is very important in using this application. Your personal computer should have the following programs installed and operating properly: Windows operating system XP/Vista/7/8 Microsoft Excel version 2007 or higher QUICK START GUIDE For easy use, please take a few moments to read and follow the Quick Start Steps. Quick Start Steps 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Open this application Click “Start” Enter values in gray boxes Click “Run” to see an overview of cost/returns Navigate the application by clicking on icons at the top of each screen Enter new values (i.e., activity, quantities, prices) in gray boxes to customize the budget Click “Economics” button to see graphical representations of the data Click “Edit Input” button to modify your initial input Click “Help” button to search for more detailed instructions GETTING STARTED This Complete User Guide covers everything you need to know to start using this application, including: 1. Initial Input 2. Navigating the Application 2.1 – Soil Preparation, Establishment and Maintenance Screens 2.1.1 – Depreciation (Amortization Schedule) 2.2 – Production Years 1, 2, 3 and Full Production 2.3 – Summary 2.4 – Economics 2.4.1 – Breakeven Analysis 2.4.2 – Sensitivity Analysis 2.4.3 – Risk Analysis 3. Help and Other Functions This decision support tool is both easy to use and highly customizable. Before you can use this application for estimating basic revenue calculations, you must tell the program a few things about your current or potential operation. Please open the application now and follow the instructions below. Remember to enable macros when you open this file. If a “Security Alert – Macro” is displayed, select enable this content and click “Ok”. 1 – INITIAL INPUT This application needs very little information before you can start using it. A screen like the one shown in Figure 1 will display the “Main Menu”. Click on the icon called “Start.” A form will open. Enter your own information in the gray boxes. Click on each of these boxes to enter your own values. All the information in the gray boxes is required to calculate the budget, except the cultivar name which is optional. “Demo” and “Help” icons are available to assist in filling the form (Figure 2). Warning messages will appear if there is missing information or if you enter an invalid input (i.e., negative numbers, letters instead of numbers, etc.). You cannot leave this form until you enter all the required information unless you decide to “Cancel” your data entering process. Figure 1. Getting started with the application If you want to work on your personal computer, download a copy of this spreadsheet to your hard disk and save it. If you would like to see a complete example of how to fill the “User Input” form, click on the “Demo” icon and all the gray cells will be filled in with default values as shown in Figure 2. You can overwrite this information at any time. Figure 2. User input (Required) To enter your own information, follow these steps: 1. Cultivar Name – Enter cultivar name (Optional). 2. Planting Distance (ft.) – Enter the planting distance in both “In Row” and “Between Row” boxes. Once both values have been entered, the application will automatically calculate the number of trees per acre. This information is required. 3. Yield (lb. /tree) – In this application, apple trees are expected to be productive for 15 years. Enter expected yield values for the first three years of production (i.e., years 1, 2, and 3). In year four, the trees enter in “Full Production.” The user can enter customized yield information for each year of production by clicking the green icon entitled “Full Production Yield.” When clicking the green icon, a new form will display default full production yields for “Fresh Market” and “Processing Market” for 12 years (i.e., years 4 to15). The user can overwrite any of those values by clicking any gray box and entering a new value; when done just click “Ok” to continue. Default values assume a constant full production yield for each quality and will be used for calculation if the user decides not to customize yield values (see Figure 2.1). The userform will remember the last displayed values. If you want to use the default values again; click “X” to quit and click again in the “Full Production Yield” icon to reload the default values. This information is required. 4. Production Usage (%) – Enter the expected percentage of organic apples that will be sold as “Fresh Market”, and “Processing Market” as well as the percentage of expected culled apples. Note here that the “Total (%)” must be equal to 100 %. If the “Total (%)” value is different from 100 %, a message will appear (“Production usage must be equal to 100 %”) and ask to correct the input. These percentages do not apply for full production years. The user must enter the exact expected yield that is going to be used in the “Fresh Market” and “Processed Market” when in full production. This information is required. Figure 2.1 Full production yield (Required) 5. Market Price ($/lb.) – Enter the expected prices for “Fresh Market” and “Processing Market” for each year. The user must click on the green icon to change default prices for each “Full Production” year.” This information is required. 6. Wages ($/hr.) – Enter “Management” and “Labor” cost per hour. This information is required. 7. Rates (%) – Enter the “Inflation” and the “Discount” rates you want to use in your calculations. The inflation rate is used to adjust the value of future cash flows. Then the discount rate is used to determine the present values of future cash flows. This information is required. After entering this information, the budget will be calculated automatically. By clicking on the “Run” icon, the application will check if there is missing information. If the initial input was not entered correctly or there is missing information, a warning message asking to correct the data will appear. If there is no missing information, the application will show a screen with a summary of the budget after clicking “Run”. From that window, you can navigate across other screens to edit production activities, check the economics, or restart the application. All of this information is required (except the cultivar name). If the user clicks “Run” but there is still missing information, a warning message will ask the user to complete the form before being able to continue. If the user closes the window using the “X” at the top right of the form, the information will not be recorded. 2 - NAVIGATING THE APPLICATION The user can navigate across this application from virtually any screen. There is a “Navigation Tool” at the top right of each screen that helps the user to move between screens to see/update information (Figure 3). By clicking any icon on the navigation tool, the user can quickly move among the various screens associated with the application. Figure 3. Navigation tool The icon “Main Menu” shows several navigation options (i.e., quick start, start, help, user guide, credits, disclaimer, about this tool, and contact us). “Economics” presents a graphical representation of the total costs (i.e., variable and fixed costs), gross revenues and net returns. Breakeven, risk and sensitivity analyses can also be conducted from the “Economics” screen. “Edit Input” reopens the “User Input” form where changes to the “Initial Input” can be made if needed. The “Help” icon will provide detailed instructions and more information on how to customize the budget. This icon will display 12 different topics from which to choose. 2.1 – Soil Preparation, Establishment and Maintenance Screens Navigating to “Soil Preparation”, “Establishment” or “Maintenance” screens will reveal detailed descriptions of the variable and fixed costs of production for each of those years. From there, the default values used to make the calculations are displayed. The user may enter his own values by placing new values in the “Your Quantity” or “Your Price” columns. Once any new values are entered, calculations are automatically updated. This tool calculates costs and revenues based on a representative set of activities that occur in any given year on an apple orchard. Additional activities specific to a grower’s operation can be added to the budget. To add an activity; enter a name or description, unit, quantity, and price per unit. The total cost per each additional activity will be calculated automatically. New information can be entered in all the gray cells on any screen (Figure 4). Figure 4. Modifying the budget: How to select or enter new data 2.1.1 – Depreciation (Amortization Schedule) An amortization schedule (Depreciation) is a table with the details of the amount of each payment allocated to principal and interest. Every payment made on a loan is split between principal and interest. An amortization schedule provides the exact amount remaining on a loan after each payment is made. This application calculates depreciation on “Machinery”, “Irrigation” and “Trellis” systems automatically. The user can enter new quantities or prices to modify the total loan amount When new quantities or prices are entered, the total costs values are highlighted in green. This helps the user to identify what changes were made. (for any of the three systems). This can be done in the “Soil Preparation” (i.e., Machinery system) and “Establishment” (i.e., Irrigation and Trellis systems) screens. The user may also modify the annual interest rate, loan period, and the starting date of the loan in each of the amortization schedule screens. To view the amortization schedule, the user must click on the “Edit” icon, which is located to the right of each system (Machinery, Irrigation or Trellis) section of the “Soil Preparation” or “Establishment” screens. The total value of each system has been broken down to the number of years the system is expected to operate. The user can click the “Go Back” icon to return to the corresponding system (Figure 5) or use the navigation tool to select another screen. Figure 5. Example of an amortization schedule for machinery and equipment 2.2 – Production Years 1, 2, 3 and Full Production (Years 4 to 15) By clicking on any of the production years (i.e., production year 1, production year 2, production year 3, and full production), a detailed description of the gross returns and total costs (including variable and fixed costs) will be displayed. New information could be added as explained in section 2.1. 2.3 – Summary The “Summary” screen (see Figure 6) is a snapshot of all production activity costs, gross revenues and net returns for each year. All these values are shown as present values. From this screen the user can navigate across the application. For instance, the user can return to the “Main Menu”, edit the initial input, go to a specific year to modify or enter new information, and go to the economics component of this application. Figure 6. Summary screen Additionally, this tool includes a net returns calculator. Net returns show the amount of revenue (income) that is left once all costs have been paid. This tool can be accessed in the “Summary” screen by clicking on the “Net Returns Calculator” icon (see Figure 7). Figure 7. Net returns calculator A new form will open with all the variable costs, fixed costs, total costs, gross revenues and net returns displayed in the “Summary” screen. This tool allows the user to change variable costs, fixed costs or gross returns of any year. Once changed, the total costs, net returns and cumulative net returns will be calculated automatically. In addition, a stoplight displays negative or positive cumulative net returns. This helps the user estimating when the operation will breakeven. Any changes made in this calculator will not affect the “Summary” screen results. The userform will remember the last displayed values. If you make changes and do not see any updates; click “Close” to quit and click again in the “Net Return Calculator” icon to reload the new values. 2.4 - Economics By clicking on the “Economics” icon (from any screen), a graphical representation of the total cost of production, gross revenues, net returns, variable and fixed costs ($/acre) associated with the information entered in the “User Input” form and all the other screens will be displayed (Figure 8). This tool will calculate breakeven points for price and yield (see Breakeven Analysis for more information). From here, risk and sensitivity analyses can also be conducted (see Risk and Sensitivity Analyses for more information). Figure 8. Example of a graphical representation of the total and fixed costs, revenues and net returns 2.4.1 – Breakeven Analysis Although obtaining positive net present values is the main goal, it is very important to know if/when the production of the organic apple orchard will cover the total costs of production or, in other words, breakeven. This tool calculates how much revenue is needed and how many years it takes to get that revenue (given expected fresh and processed market yields and prices) to cover the total costs of production. For example, under the current situation (See Figure 9), it will take seven years for the cumulative total costs and total revenues to be equal. They will be equal at $50,002. After year seven, the orchard covers the total costs of production and generates profits for the remaining years. The breakeven point is defined in this organic apple application as the point at which total costs and revenues are equal. There is no net loss or gain (i.e., the producer has "broken even"). Figure 9. Breakeven analysis illustration Expected market production (EMPi) is equal to market yield (EMYi) per tree times the number of trees (NT) per acre times expected market price (EMPri), t is time in years, and i is fresh or processed market (See market production equation). Total revenues are the sum of expected fresh and processed market production during the life of the orchard. 18 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝐸𝑀𝑃)𝑖 = ∑(𝐸𝑀𝑌𝑖 × 𝑁𝑇 × 𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑟𝑖 ) 𝑡=1 So, the breakeven yield (See breakeven yield equation) is calculated by dividing the cumulative total costs of operating the orchard for 18 years (CTC) by the expected average market price (EMPi) over the life of the orchard times the ratio between expected market production (EMPi) and total revenues (TR). 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑𝑖 = 𝐶𝑇𝐶 𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑖 ×( ) 𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑖 𝑇𝑅 The tool will calculate the breakeven fresh and processed yields for the production life of the orchard. For example, using the tool’s default values, cumulative total costs (CTC) are equal to $107,746 per acre; total revenues are equal to $163,087 per acre; fresh market fruit is $1.00 per pound and processed market fruit is $0.15 per pound. The orchard will breakeven at the end of the life of the orchard (e.g., net returns equal to zero), if fresh market and processed market yields are 104,200 pounds and 13,025 pounds, respectively. Likewise, the breakeven price (See breakeven price equation) is calculated by dividing the cumulative total costs of operating the orchard for 18 years (CTC) by the expected average market yield (EMYi) over the life of the orchard times the ratio between expected market production (EMPi) and total revenues (TR). The resulting numbers will be the average annual price per pound (for each quality) that must be attained for apples sold for exactly zero profit to be obtained at the end of the 18 years of production. 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑖 = 𝐶𝑇𝐶 𝐸𝑀𝑃𝑖 ×( ) 𝐸𝑀𝑌𝑖 𝑇𝑅 For example, using the tool’s default values, cumulative total costs (CTC) are equal to $107,746 per acre; total revenues are equal to $163,087 per acre; cumulative fresh market fruit is 307,340 pounds per acre and cumulative processed market fruit is 38,418 pounds per acre. The orchard will breakeven at the end of the life of the orchard (e.g., net returns equal to zero), if fresh market and processed market prices are $0.34 per pound and $0.05 per pound each year, respectively. By clicking on the “Breakeven Analysis” icon (See Figure 9), a userform will display yield and price breakeven points (e.g., net returns equal to zero). A breakeven analysis summary Breakeven and sensitivity analyses are presented in both graphical and tabular forms. Graphs and tables are updated automatically. However, the changes made in the sensitivity analysis form do not impact the original input data. for both yields and prices are shown in Figure 9.1. All these values are interactive and will be updated automatically if any input is changed. Figure 9.1. Breakeven analysis summary 2.4.2 – Sensitivity Analysis This application also allows producers to examine “What If” scenarios to make better planning and investing decisions. A “What If” analysis is also called a sensitivity analysis. This technique is used to determine how different values of an input will impact the final product. In other words, a sensitivity analysis is a way to predict the outcome of a decision if a situation turns out to be different from the current situation. Here, a user might like to know how the total costs, gross revenues, and net returns will be affected if a change occurs (for example, unexpected lower yields, lower prices, higher production usage, etc.). The “Sensitivity Analysis” icon is located on the right corner of the “Economic” screen. When clicking on the “Sensitivity Analysis” icon, default values will be displayed (Figure 10). The user can change one or more inputs (related to yields or prices) to conduct a “What If” analysis. Once the desired values have been changed, click “Run”. New values for gross and net returns will be recalculated. This “What If” analysis enables the user to instantly see the impact of a change in one or more of the inputs on the economic feasibility of the whole apple orchard. Figure 11 shows the “new” breakeven analysis when a constant price of $0.90 per pound (e.g., fresh market price) is used. The userform will remember the last displayed values. If you want to use the default values again; click “Cancel” to quit and click again in the “Sensitivity Analysis” icon to reload the default values. Figure 10. Sensitivity analysis example (form) By clicking on the What If Analysis icon (See Figure 11), a userform will display a new breakeven analysis based on the sensitivity analysis summarized for both yields and prices. All these values are interactive and will be updated automatically if any input is changed. Breakeven and sensitivity analyses are presented in both graphical and tabular forms. Graphs and tables are updated automatically. However, the changes made in the sensitivity analysis form do not impact the original input data. Figure 11. New breakeven analysis based on new fresh market price of $0.90/lb. 2.4.3 – Risk Analysis In addition to a sensitivity analysis, this application includes a risk analysis component. In this application, risk analysis is defined as a technique that calculates the probability of obtaining a net present value of returns greater than a specific dollar target. This target is set by the user. To access risk analysis component, click the "Risk Analysis" icon located in the “Economics” screen. The form will open with default values but they can be changed at any time (Figure 12). Enter new values in the gray boxes. There are five different steps. In the first step, enter a “minimum”, “most likely” and “maximum” yield (lbs. /tree) for the first three years of production. Full production is assumed to be constant but this can be overwritten by clicking on the green icon. Figure 12. Risk analysis form displaying default values Next, enter predicted percentages of “Fresh Market”, “Processing Market” and “Culled” apples for all the first three years of production. The following two steps require information on “minimum”, “most likely” and “maximum” price ($/lb.) for “Fresh Market” and “Processing Market” fruit for all production and full production years. If full production values are not updated, default values will be used for calculation. In the last step enter the percentage by which the total cost should increase or decrease each year, a target dollar amount that the user expects to receive after 18 years of production and an average inflation rate. The user can change one, several or all the inputs. To move between screens click “Next” or “Back”. To see the results, click “Finish” at any time. After all the risk analysis input information is recorded, the program will calculate a net present value (i.e., it compares the present value of money today to the present value of money in the future, taking inflation and returns into account). The model will calculate the probability [i.e., the model will simulate net returns each year a large number of times (in this case 100 iterations) to gain a better understanding of the range of possible net returns] of the net present return value being equal or greater than a specific dollar target. It also calculates the range where the average net present return will lie (Figure 13). The risk analysis component of this tool has the capability of comparing a baseline with a “Comparison Scenario”. The baseline (blue line) shows that this operation has a 60.6% (out of 100%) chance that it will earn at least $90,000 in total over the life of the operation. Furthermore it is most likely the actual amount earned will fall somewhere between $90,797 and $97,689. The only difference between the baseline and the comparison scenario is that total costs of production were assumed to be 10% lower than the baseline. Consequently, the probability of obtaining a net return value equal or greater than $90,000/acre over the entire life of the orchard is 78.8%. The user can run many comparison scenarios by entering new information in the risk analysis userform. However, the baseline is unchangeable. Figure 13. Risk analysis output example The userform will remember the last displayed values. If you want to use the default values again; click “Cancel” to quit and click again in the “Risk Analysis” icon to reload the default values. Risk analysis input is entered in steps. Keep or change input and click “Next” to continue entering or accepting input. After the information is complete click “Finish”. The comparison scenario will be calculated automatically. 3- HELP AND OTHER FUNCTIONS This application provides several ways to display help for the user. There is a “Help” icon located in all screens. From this icon the user can access a form with 12 different topics (i.e., Quick Start, Initial Input, Demo, Editing Input, User Guide, the Navigation Tool, Summary, Economics, Amortization, Breakeven, Risk and Sensitivity Analyses). The user can select a topic from the list or view the topics sequentially by clicking the “Previous” and “Next” buttons (Figure 14). Figure 14. Help menu by topic There are also help tips throughout the application. They will display automatically once specific cells are activated (see example in Figure 15). Since the majority of the cells are expected to have similar input (i.e., quantity or prices), the help tips will only appear in first line of the screen as shown below. The help tips will disappear once the user moves to another cell. Figure 15. Help tips (displayed when some specific cells are activated) If the user enters invalid input (i.e., letters or negative numbers) or there is missing input, warning messages will appear to help the user to change the entry to an appropriate value (Figure 16). Figure 16. Examples of warning messages GLOSSARY Breakeven is the point at which total cost and revenue (i.e., gross revenues) are equal: there is no net loss or gain (i.e., the producer has "broken even"). Breakeven price point is the amount of money for which a product (i.e., an apple) must be sold to cover the costs of producing it. In this tool, the breakeven price is calculated assuming that the total costs of production must be covered. Breakeven yield point is the yield required to cover the total cost of producing an apple. In other words, it is the point at which the money brought in from the sale of an apple is equal to the total cost of producing an apple. Cash flow is an amount of money that is either paid out (total cash has decreased; negative) or received (total cash has increased; positive) at the end of a period of time. Cumulative net returns is the aggregate amount that an investment or production process has gained or lost over a period of time. In this case, it is the addition of all gross revenues minus the addition of all total costs during 18 years of production (see Figure 7). Depreciation (amortization schedule) is the amount of each payment allocated to principal and interest. Every payment made on a loan is split between principal and interest. An amortization schedule provides the exact amount remaining on a loan after each payment is made. Discount rate the interest rate used in calculating the present value of expected yearly benefits and costs (Click here for more information). Fixed costs are independent of the quantity of a good produced and include inputs (capital) that cannot be varied in the short term, such as buildings and machinery. Fresh market fruit is perfect fruit, free from damage caused by disease, insects, hail, russet, etc. (click here for USDA definition) Inflation rate is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of money buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money. The inflation rate is used to adjust the value of future cash flows. Interest is the additional amount of money gained/paid between the beginning and the end of a time period. Interest rate is the change, expressed as a percentage, in the amount of money during the length of time that must occur before interest is added to the total. Present value is a future amount of money that has been discounted to reflect its current value, as if it existed today. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow because the dollar can be invested and earn a day's worth of interest, making the total accumulate to a value more than a dollar by tomorrow. Present value calculations are used to make comparisons between cash flows between production years since they do not occur at simultaneous times. Net present value is the sum of present values of individual cash flows over a period of time. It compares the present value of money today to the present value of money in the future, taking discount rate and revenues into account. The project with the higher positive net present value should be chosen when comparing between different projects. Net return is the money a producer makes after accounting for all the apple production expenses. It is calculated as: Gross Revenues minus Total Costs. Processing market fruit is imperfect fruit that is of reasonably high quality. May be overripe or have minor damage due to hail, tree branches, insect scars, russet, bruising, etc. Not found in retail outlets. Revenue (Gross revenues) is income that a farm receives from the sale of goods to customers. In other words, it is the total amount of money received by a producer from the sale of any given quantity of a product. It is calculated as: Quantity times Price. Risk analysis calculates the probability of obtaining a net present return value greater than a specific dollar target. Sensitivity analysis determines how different values of an input will impact the final product or good. It helps to predict the outcome of a decision if a situation turns out to be different from the current situation. Same as a “What if” analysis. Total costs describe the total economic cost of production and is made up of variable costs plus fixed costs. Variable costs are costs that change in proportion to the good that a farm produces and include inputs such as labor and raw materials. What If (See Sensitivity analysis) ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Partial funding was provided by the Organic Agriculture Research and Extension Initiative (USDA-OREI). The authors thank Curt Rom, Jason McAfee, Heather Friedrich and Haxhire Myrteza for their technical expertise, collaboration and advice. CONTACT US For more information or technical issues about this application contact: Héctor Germán Rodríguez ([email protected]) Jennie Popp ([email protected]) Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness University of Arkansas, 217 Agriculture Building Fayetteville, AR 72701 - USA DISCLAIMER Activities and prices were based on research conducted at the Organic Fruit Production Research Unit at the Division of Agriculture, Agricultural Research and Extension Center, Fayetteville, AR. The practices described are based on production procedures considered typical for this crop in Northwest Arkansas, and may not apply to every organic apple orchard. The costs, practices, and materials will not be applicable to all situations every production year. Users are encouraged to replace default information with that specific to their operations. This material is provided as an educational tool and is not a substitute for individualized technical advice. This budget should be used as a guide only. Please direct all production questions to your university Horticulture Department or your local Cooperative Extension Service office.
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