Residential land development activity profile, September quarter 2016 Toowoomba Regional Council The residential land development activity profile for Toowoomba Regional Council, hereafter referred to as Toowoomba, provides a comprehensive summary of recent residential land development and dwelling activity indicators within the local government area. Topics covered include broadhectare land supply, uncompleted lots (approvals, operational works, and certifications), lot registrations, lot sales, dwelling sales and dwelling approvals (Figure 1). Broadhectare land supply Broadhectare land refers to residential greenfield and brownfield land (greater than 2,500 m²) that is currently suitable for residential development. The latest broadhectare results show that there were approximately 3,730 hectares of broadhectare land suitable for residential development in Toowoomba. Based on the planning scheme intent, existing approvals, and an analysis of residential densities by location, this supply is expected to yield some 20,000 dwellings. This yield takes into account ownership and land fragmentation issues which often reduce the yield. Residential lot approvals Before residential lots can be created, an applicant must first obtain a development permit approval for reconfiguring a lot (RaL) from the local government authority. In the year to September quarter 2016, council approved the development of 1,479 residential lots. This was an increase of 27 per cent compared with the same period last year when 1,162 lots were approved. Figure 2 compares quarterly lot approvals in Toowoomba over a number of years. Figure 1: Residential land development stages Broadhectare land Material change of use (where required) Uncompleted lot (closing stock of approvals) Lot approval (reconfiguring a lot) Operational works Lot registration Land sale Dwelling approval Lot production (lot certification) Small projects Figure 2: Quarterly residential lot development activity, Toowoomba Regional Council Number of lots Operational works Lots approved 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Quarter Lots certified Dwelling occupancy Figure 3: Lot approvals by type, Toowoomba Regional Council Structure of residential lot approvals In the year ending September quarter 2016, almost all of the lots approved for development in Toowoomba were at urban densities (Figure 3). During this period, 43 lots were approved at rural residential densities as described in the planning scheme. Number of lots Rural residential Table 1 shows that the 1,479 lots approved for development in Toowoomba during the year ending September quarter 2016 were within 73 development projects. Projects approved to produce over 50 lots per project represented 10 per cent of the projects approved during this period, while accounting for 84 per cent of the total lots approved (Figure 4). Urban 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Year to September Table 1: Lot approvals by project size, Toowoomba Regional Council Size of development project Year ending September smaller projects larger projects 1 to 2 lots 3 to 5 lots 6 to 10 lots Total (Total lots projects) Total (Total lots projects) Total (Total lots projects) 11 to 20 lots Total (Total lots projects) All project sizes 21 to 50 lots Over 50 lots Total (Total lots projects) Total (Total lots projects) Total (Total lots projects) 2008 76 (65) 16 (5) 27 (3) 29 (2) 268 (9) 891 (7) 1,307 (91) 2009 37 (33) 12 (4) 47 (6) 62 (4) 50 (2) 715 (4) 923 (53) 2010 33 (27) 21 (6) 6 (1) 0 (0) 29 (1) 77 (1) 166 (36) 2011 25 (22) 13 (4) 27 (3) 75 (4) 86 (3) 206 (3) 432 (39) 2012 26 (20) 0 (0) 15 (2) 32 (2) 166 (5) 692 (4) 931 (33) 2013 48 (40) 12 (3) 15 (2) 28 (2) 59 (2) 464 (4) 626 (53) 2014 84 (75) 31 (9) 15 (2) 0 (0) 231 (6) 197 (2) 558 (94) 2015 73 (62) 21 (6) 35 (4) 44 (3) 282 (9) 707 (8) 1,162 (92) 2016 59 (52) 21 (6) 7 (1) 41 (3) 111 (4) 1,240 (7) 1,479 (73) Dec qtr 2015 23 (20) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 817 (3) 840 (23) Mar qtr 2016 7 (6) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 0 (0) 358 (3) 365 (9) Jun qtr 2016 17 (15) 15 (4) 7 (1) 23 (2) 69 (2) 65 (1) 196 (25) Sep qtr 2016 12 (11) 6 (2) 0 (0) 18 (1) 42 (2) 0 (0) 78 (16) Figure 4: Lot approvals by project size, year ending September 2016, Toowoomba Regional Council Percentage Lots approved Projects approved 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 to 2 lots 3 to 5 lots 6 to 10 lots 11 to 20 lots 21 to 50 lots Over 50 lots Size of development project Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 2 Operational works approvals Before an approved development proceeds, detailed engineering drawings and specifications for civil engineering and landscaping (or "operational works") must be approved by council. Such works may not be required for small projects. In the year to September quarter 2016, council gave operational works approvals for the development of 489 lots (Table 2). The total stock of lots with current operational works approvals at the end of September quarter 2016 was 935 lots. These lots represent approved land that is most likely to be developed in the short term and accounted for 23 per cent of the 4,035 uncompleted lots in the pipeline (Table 3 and Figure 5). Table 2: Uncompleted residential lots¹, Toowoomba Regional Council Year to September Opening stock (a) Lots approved (b) 2008 2,929 1,307 2009 3,549 2010 3,475 2011 Operational works approvals Lots certified (c) Lots lapsed (d) Closing stock (a+b-c-d) 667 586 101 3,549 923 399 866 131 3,475 166 535 534 103 3,004 3,004 432 231 496 216 2,724 2012 2,724 931 31 324 179 3,152 2013 3,152 626 456 319 137 3,322 2014 3,322 558 669 587 295 2,998 2015 2,998 1,162 969 877 80 3,203 2016 3,203 1,479 489 640 7 4,035 Dec qtr 2015 3,203 840 102 122 0 3,921 Mar qtr 2016 3,921 365 102 309 4 3,973 Jun qtr 2016 3,973 196 187 77 0 4,092 Sep qtr 2016 4,092 78 98 132 3 4,035 1) Uncompleted lots are lots with a RaL development permit approval but have not proceeded to survey plan certification. Figure 5: Stock of approved lots by type, Toowoomba Regional Council Table 3: Stock of approved lots by type, Toowoomba Regional Council Quarter Closing stock of lots Percentage with RaL development Operational works operational works approval approval approval Closing stock of lots with RaL development approval Stock of lots with operational works approval 4,500 Dec qtr 2013 3,276 492 15% Mar qtr 2014 3,413 659 19% Jun qtr 2014 2,922 581 20% 3,500 Sep qtr 2014 2,998 733 24% 3,000 Dec qtr 2014 2,958 837 28% Mar qtr 2015 2,931 706 24% Jun qtr 2015 2,715 676 25% Sep qtr 2015 3,203 951 30% 1,000 Dec qtr 2015 3,921 939 24% 500 Mar qtr 2016 3,973 814 20% 0 Jun qtr 2016 4,092 945 23% Sep qtr 2016 4,035 935 23% Number of lots 4,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 2014 2015 2016 Year ending September Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 3 Lot production (lot certification) Once council is satisfied with all aspects of the development being implemented, it will then issue a certificate of compliance. In total, 640 residential lots were certified by council in the year to September quarter 2016 (Table 2). Compared with the previous year when 877 lots were certified, this represented a decrease of 27 per cent. Lots lapsed Lots lapsed refers to the number of lots that receive approval by council, but are not developed or certified by the council within the prescribed period (allowing for time extensions if applicable). Lots lapsed also include previously approved lots that are not expected to proceed due to new or amended approvals (obsolete lots). In the year to September quarter 2016, 7 lots previously approved for development had lapsed in Toowoomba. Closing stock The total stock of approved lots that are uncompleted is adjusted to take into consideration lots approved, certified and lapsed during the reporting period. Table 2 shows that at the end of September quarter 2016, Toowoomba still had active approvals for the development of 4,035 new residential lots. It is expected, however, that some developments will not proceed and a number of approvals will subsequently lapse or be amended. Lot registrations New lots within plans certified by council do not legally exist until the titles have been registered by the Department of Natural Resources and Mines. This registration is the final stage in the development of new lots. The number of urban lots registered in Toowoomba during September quarter 2016 increased by 29 per cent to 257 registrations compared with 200 registrations recorded in the previous quarter (Table 4 and Figure 6). Total lot registrations for the year ending September 2016 were down 36 per cent compared with the previous year. Table 5 categorises the standard lots registered in Toowoomba by lot size. Table 4: Lot registrations, Toowoomba Regional Council Urban residential lot registrations Year to Standard lots September 60m² to <2,500m² 2008 470 2009 596 2010 2011 Unit and Low density Median lot size Total lot registrations Total lot Standard lots urban lots 2,500m² to 5ha registrations 60m² to <2,500m² 289 759 271 1,030 962m² 241 837 212 1,049 702m² 355 87 442 118 560 807m² 460 127 587 127 714 750m² 2012 281 170 451 60 511 761m² 2013 320 188 508 67 575 751m² 2014 534 275 809 93 902 750m² 2015 784 551 1,335 118 1,453 723m² 2016 425 409 834 94 928 640m² Dec qtr 2015 146 148 294 22 316 709m² Mar qtr 2016 26 57 83 7 90 584m² Jun qtr 2016 112 88 200 35 235 544m² Sep qtr 2016 141 116 257 30 287 650m² a townhouse lots b a a) Lots on a standard format plan intended for detached dwellings, including lots intended for detached dwellings in a community title scheme. b) Lots on a building format plan or standard format plan that represent attached dwellings within a community title scheme. Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 4 Table 5: Standard lot registrations ͣ by size, Toowoomba Regional Council Standard lot registrations by lot size category Year to September 60m² to <200m² 200m² to <350m² 350m² to <450m² 450m² to <600m² 37 2008 0 0 11 2009 0 0 18 92 2010 0 0 6 20 2011 0 0 9 47 2012 0 0 8 2013 0 0 2014 0 0 2015 0 0 2016 0 Dec qtr 2015 Mar qtr 2016 600m² 800m² 1,000m² 2,500m² 4,000m² to <800m² to <1,000m² to <2,500m² to <4,000m² to 5ha 86 195 Total standard registrations 60m² to 5ha 151 185 76 741 258 109 119 72 140 808 126 112 91 8 110 473 184 139 81 36 91 587 51 92 85 45 2 58 341 7 25 173 66 49 5 62 387 55 150 88 134 107 21 72 627 50 217 185 218 114 29 89 902 0 75 107 77 62 104 24 70 519 0 0 25 21 34 25 41 5 17 168 0 0 7 6 6 0 7 0 7 33 Jun qtr 2016 0 0 25 36 12 11 28 10 25 147 Sep qtr 2016 0 0 18 44 25 26 28 9 21 171 a) Lots on a standard format plan intended for detached dwellings, including lots intended for detached dwellings in a community title scheme. Figure 6: Quarterly standard lot registrations by size, Toowoomba Regional Council Standard lot registrations 60m² to <450m² 450m² to <800m² 800m² to <2,500m² 2,500m² to 5ha 300 250 Number of lots 200 150 100 50 0 Quarter Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 5 New lot sales (includes house and land packages) In the year ending September quarter 2016, there were 542 new lots sold in Toowoomba, of which 460 were vacant (Table 6). The remaining 82 lots were either part of a developer house and land package sale or consisted of an existing dwelling that was sold after subdivision of a parent parcel. In the year ending September quarter 2016, the median sale price of vacant land in Toowoomba was $175,000. This represented almost no change in median value compared with the previous year (Table 6). Quarterly vacant land sales for Toowoomba are shown in Figure 7. Table 6: Sales of new lots, Toowoomba Regional Council Number of new lot sales a (140m² to 2,500m²) Year to September Vacant land c House & land package d Total sales Median sale price b (140m² to 2,500m²) Vacant land c House & land package d Median price per m² Vacant land bc (140m² to 2,500m²) 2008 602 102 704 $96,500 $293,000 $96 2009 709 111 820 $117,500 $330,000 $131 2010 542 81 623 $138,500 $344,000 $181 2011 428 85 513 $140,000 $362,000 $157 2012 473 66 539 $155,000 $322,000 $191 2013 579 69 648 $154,000 $340,000 $205 2014 743 66 809 $159,950 $350,000 $226 2015 834 77 911 $172,500 $370,000 $268 2016p 460 82 542 $175,000 $440,000 $251 Dec qtr 2015 136 25 161 $172,000 $475,000 $207 Mar qtr 2016 97 15 112 $174,000 $385,001 $296 Jun qtr 2016 96 19 115 $170,000 $450,000 $231 Sep qtr 2016p 131 23 154 $195,000 $410,000 $242 p = preliminary; subject to revision as a number of sale contracts may not have reached settlement at time of data collection. a) Normal sales and multi-sale transactions. Excludes part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. b) Normal sale transactions. Excludes multi-sales, part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. c) May include resales of vacant land. Excludes intermediate vacant land transactions relating to developer house and land package sales. d) Includes lots as a component of a developer house and land package in addition to subdivided lots containing an existing dwelling. Figure 7: Quarterly vacant land sales, Toowoomba Regional Council Sale price b Lowest quartile Median Highest quartile $250,000 300 250 Sale price $200,000 200 $150,000 150 $100,000 100 $50,000 Number of sales Number of sales ª 50 0 $0 Quarter p = preliminary; subject to revision as a number of sale contracts may not have reached settlement at time of data collection. a) Normal sales and multi-sale transactions. Excludes part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. b) Normal sale transactions. Excludes multi-sales, part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 6 Dwelling sales In the year ending September quarter 2016, there were 3,659 new and established dwellings sold in Toowoomba. Of these dwellings, 3,071 (84 per cent) were detached houses (Table 7). In September quarter 2016, 732 detached house sales were recorded with a median value of $361,000. This was a decrease of 13 per cent in dwelling sales volume and almost no change in median value compared with the same quarter last year (Figure 8). Table 7: Dwelling sales, Toowoomba Regional Council Number of dwelling sales a Year to September Detached houses Units & townhouses Median sale price b Total dwellings Detached houses Units & townhouses 2008 3,472 572 4,044 $267,500 $223,000 2009 3,794 734 4,528 $277,500 $233,000 2010 2,980 511 3,491 $300,000 $247,000 2011 2,624 403 3,027 $300,000 $253,000 2012 2,819 529 3,348 $299,500 $255,000 2013 3,413 646 4,059 $322,000 $278,000 2014 3,802 866 4,668 $342,000 $299,000 2015 3,410 662 4,072 $360,000 $310,000 2016 3,071 588 3,659 $360,000 $310,000 Dec qtr 2015 794 161 955 $365,000 $310,000 Mar qtr 2016 757 152 909 $358,000 $310,000 Jun qtr 2016 788 143 931 $355,000 $310,000 Sep qtr 2016 732 132 864 $361,000 $290,000 a) Normal sales and multi-sale transactions. Excludes part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. b) Normal sale transactions. Excludes multi-sales, part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. Figure 8: Quarterly detached house sales, Toowoomba Regional Council Sale price b Lowest quartile Median Highest quartile $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 Number of sales Sale price Number of sales ª 200 0 Quarter a) Normal sales and multi-sale transactions. Excludes part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. b) Normal sale transactions. Excludes multi-sales, part-sales and sales made under other special circumstances. Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 7 Dwelling approvals In the year ending September quarter 2016, Toowoomba recorded a 4 per cent decrease in residential dwelling approvals compared with the previous year. There was a total of 1,315 approvals (63 per cent of which were for separate houses) compared with 1,372 approvals in the year ending September 2015 (Table 8 and Figure 9). Top local government areas for development activity Table 9 displays the top 10 local government areas in Queensland for several development activity indicators for the year ending September 2016. The table shows that a considerable amount of the state's development activity is occurring in the local government areas of Gold Coast City, Brisbane City, Moreton Bay Regional Council, Ipswich City and Sunshine Coast Regional Council. Figure 9: Dwelling approvals by type, Toowoomba Regional Council Table 8: Dwelling approvals by type, Toowoomba Regional Council Number of dwellings September Houses Other Houses Total 2009 702 143 845 2010 889 258 1,147 2011 561 142 703 2012 783 164 947 2013 570 415 985 2014 726 599 1,325 2015 848 524 1,372 2016 827 488 1,315 Dec qtr 2015 177 145 322 Mar qtr 2016 174 92 266 Jun qtr 2016 265 152 417 Sep qtr 2016 211 99 310 Other 1,600 1,400 Number of dw ellings Year to 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Year ending September Table 9: Top local government areas for development activity in Queensland, year ending September 2016 Rank Lot approvals Local government area 1 Moreton Bay (R) Standard lot registrations No. 3,899 Local government area Gold Coast (C) No. 3,126 New lot sales (p) Local government area Detached dwelling approvals ¹ No. Local government area No. Gold Coast (C) 2,892 Gold Coast (C) 3,890 2 Ipswich (C) 3,188 Brisbane (C) 2,691 Brisbane (C) 2,293 Brisbane (C) 3,243 3 Logan (C) 2,793 Ipswich (C) 2,504 Moreton Bay (R) 2,091 Sunshine Coast (R) 2,800 4 Brisbane (C) 2,216 Moreton Bay (R) 1,972 Ipswich (C) 2,084 Moreton Bay (R) 2,713 5 Gold Coast (C) 2,037 Sunshine Coast (R) 1,847 Sunshine Coast (R) 1,990 Ipswich (C) 2,244 1,479 Logan (C) 1,022 Logan (C) 1,198 6 Toowoomba (R) Logan (C) 2,020 7 Sunshine Coast (R) 968 Redland (C) 977 Redland (C) 864 Redland (C) 1,019 8 Cairns (R) 677 Cairns (R) 428 Cairns (R) 704 Toowoomba (R) 827 9 Fraser Coast (R) 663 Toowoomba (R) 425 Townsville (C) 628 Fraser Coast (R) 689 10 Townsville (C) 586 Fraser Coast (R) 407 Fraser Coast (R) 616 Townsville (C) 688 1) Detached dwelling approvals can occur on existing lots and are not directly comparable with new lot approvals, registrations and sales. (p) = Preliminary (C) = City (R) = Regional Council Note: Previous editions of this profile are not directly comparable due to ongoing data revisions and indicator classification adjustments. For the latest time series data, please refer to our online residential development data tables via the link below. Residential development data tables are available for download on the QGSO website: www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/res-land-devel-indicators Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Queensland Treasury www.qgso.qld.gov.au Sources for the Residential land development activity profile: ABS 8731.0, Building Approvals, Australia, September 2016; DNRM Digital Cadastral Database (DCDB); QGSO uncompleted lots database; QGSO Broadhectare Study; DNRM QVAS database. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ © The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2017 Residential land development activity profile, Toowoomba Regional Council, September quarter 2016 8
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