Waxahachie
Independent
School
District
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Demographic
Study
Spring 2017
Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2016)
3.3%
29,892
112,800 new jobs
National rate 1.5%
3,350 more
starts than 2015
0.2%
Job Growth
U.S. 4.5%
Texas 4.6%
DFW MSA 3.7%
Waxahachie 3.3%
Unemployment
Rate
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy
Annual
Home Starts
2
Local Economic Activity
•
•
•
Owens Corning is in the process of upgrading one of their manufacturing lines.
Once complete, this upgrade will ad 10-15 additional jobs.
Additional expansion is possible, but not concrete at this time.
•
•
•
Opening March 2017
Walgreens Distribution Center has committed to add 75 new jobs by 2020.
They are currently undergoing an equipment upgrade and expansion.
Current employment is appx. 700.
Waxahachie Autoplex addition
Opening late 2017
3
Waxahachie ISD Home Sales
2016 Home Sales by Price Point
5.06% 2.11%
12.65%
0.73%
2.43%
28.23%
16.43%
< $150K
$150K - $250K
$250K-$350K
$350K-$500K
> $500K
31.87%
2016 New
Home Sales
by Price
52.31%
2016 Resale
Homes Sales
by Price
48.17%
•
The district had 1,525 home sales in 2016, and 28% were of new homes
•
The median sale price in 2016 for a new home was $238,620
•
The median sale price in 2016 for an existing home was $186,225
Source: Metrostudy and Ellis County Deed Transactions
4
DFW New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q16
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
District Name
Frisco ISD
Denton ISD
Prosper ISD
Lewisville ISD
Northwest ISD
Dallas ISD
Little Elm ISD
Eagle Mt.‐Saginaw ISD
Rockwall ISD
Keller ISD
Crowley ISD
McKinney ISD
Mansfield ISD
Wylie ISD
Forney ISD
Allen ISD
Coppell ISD
Waxahachie ISD
Plano ISD
Midlothian ISD
Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL
2,639
2,542
3,569
1,971
2,103
2,420
2,569
2,050
4,675
1,313
1,387
1,468
1,670
1,282
2,207
1,574
1,223
2,233
1,088
1,099
1,575
768
856
1,277
984
850
1,887
778
788
970
714
783
662
789
723
1,610
763
708
898
798
707
1,042
688
552
884
570
515
1,052
461
483
588
446
476
785
463
453
1,030
553
445
1,295
Future
7,931
17,033
27,142
4,494
21,091
6,029
4,250
19,855
8,116
1,746
9,714
5,965
6,612
4,500
14,232
1,597
329
9,964*
2,660
19,947
*Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics
Source: Metrostudy
5
Annual Closing Distribution 4Q16
Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q16 (Ranked by Annual Closings)
Annual Rank
Subdivision
Elementary Zone Closings VDL
1 SADDLEBROOK ESTATES
CLIFT
103
51
2 SETTLERS GLEN ADDITION
WEDGEWORTH
59
27
3 GARDEN VALLEY RANCH
FELTY
45
18
4 SPRINGFIELD LAKES
SHACKELFORD
38
20
5 OXFORD RANCH
SHACKELFORD
32
0
6 MUSTANG CREEK (WAXAHACHIE)
FELTY
32
121
7 THE ARBOR AT WILLOW GROVE SHACKELFORD
20
16
8 SUMMIT, THE (ELLIS CO)
WEDGEWORTH
16
78
9 PARK PLACE (WAXAHACHIE)
FELTY
15
57
10 BUFFALO RIDGE
FELTY
15
72
TOTALS
375
460
Future
4,085
275
0
0
48
0
147
0
0
392
4,947
6
District Housing Overview
• Waxahachie ISD has more
than 780 lots available to
build on
• The district has more than
9,900 planned future lots
Active Subdivision
Future Subdivision
7
Active Subdivision
North Grove
The Cove
159 lots
Estates
192 lots
North Grove
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1,794 total lots
1,709 future lots
55 vacant developed lots
19 homes under construction
10 homes occupied
Homebuilding underway in Phase 1 of
The Cove (85 lots)
• Groundwork underway in phase 2
(74 lots)
• anticipated delivery late spring/
early summer 2017
Groundwork underway in the Estates at
North Grove (192 lots)
Preliminary plat of phases 3-7, and 12
(647 lots) approved November 2016
Shackelford Elementary
8
Active Subdivisions
Mustang Creek and Sandstone Ranch
Mustang Creek
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
430 total lots
121 vacant developed lots
305 homes occupied
2 homes under construction
Final phase of lots delivered 4Q16
Building appx. 30-40 homes per year
Felty Elementary
Sandstone Ranch
•
•
•
•
•
131 total lots
74 future lots
10 vacant developed lots
33 homes occupied
Groundwork underway on phase 2
(74 lots) delivering summer 2017
• Building 20-30 homes a year
• Felty Elementary
9
Active Subdivision
Buffalo Ridge
Phase 3A
32 lots
Phase 3B
40 lots
Buffalo Ridge
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
669 total lots
392 future lots
72 vacant developed lots
205 homes occupied
Phase 3 (72 lots) delivered 4Q16
Lennar Homes to begin home construction soon
Rezoning request under review with city to
possibly allow for additional future lots
• Felty Elementary
10
Active Subdivisions
Park Place and Garden Valley Ranch
Garden Valley Ranch
•
•
•
•
•
•
302 total lots
18 vacant developed lots
260 homes occupied
12 homes under construction
Anticipated to build out by end 2017
Felty Elementary
Park Place
•
•
•
•
•
•
223 total lots
57 vacant developed lots
158 homes occupied
2 homes under construction
Building appx. 15 homes per year
Felty Elementary
11
Future Subdivisions
Garden Valley Farms West and Garden Valley Farms
Garden Valley
Farms West
•
•
•
•
•
138 total future lots
Groundwork starting March 2017
Homes starting early 2018
DR Horton Homes
Felty Elementary
Garden Valley Farms
• 213 total future lots
• Groundwork underway on phase 1 (143
lots) delivering by end March 2017
• Lennar Homes
• Felty Elementary
12
Active Subdivision
Settler’s Glen Addition
Settler’s Glen
•
•
•
•
•
•
683 total lots
275 future lots
27 vacant developed lots
357 homes occupied
Building appx. 50-60 homes per year
Groundwork underway on phase 4
(86 lots) and Phase 5 (82 lots)
delivering mid 2017
• Wedgeworth Elementary
13
Active Subdivision
Saddlebrook Estates
Saddlebrook Estates
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
4,415 total lots
4,085 future lots
51 vacant developed lots
249 homes occupied
17 homes under construction
103 annual closings
New phase of 200 lots in design phase
• Groundwork anticipated to start 3Q17
• Lot delivery expected 2Q18
• Clift Elementary
14
Future Subdivision
Bluebonnet Trail
Bluebonnet Trail
• 223 total future lots
• Groundwork expected to
begin late 2017
• Homes starting mid 2018
• Building 25-30 homes a year
• Clift Elementary
15
Future Development
Emory Lakes
Emory Lakes
•
•
•
•
•
•
AKA Kemp Ranch
2,000 Acre future development
Still in planning stages
No submissions to the city at this time
No timeframe for development
Wedgeworth Elementary
16
Ten Year Forecast
By Grade Level
Year (Oct.)
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
2026/27
EE/PK
228
210
214
200
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
K
545
555
553
537
524
529
559
582
629
673
708
727
749
758
774
1st
614
583
603
622
581
580
589
626
660
712
755
800
810
833
846
2nd
553
621
597
586
628
596
605
617
659
704
743
796
845
844
870
3rd
586
588
630
612
644
651
631
640
664
703
743
788
845
892
889
4th
543
560
607
672
658
676
701
685
690
719
747
800
847
908
961
5th
568
552
597
625
690
698
708
740
730
740
766
788
847
897
964
6th
578
553
547
589
644
696
699
713
746
735
745
773
794
855
906
7th
548
604
582
573
632
678
736
738
753
789
778
788
819
841
906
8th
586
557
610
595
622
657
705
772
771
786
824
811
822
854
876
9th
619
709
695
689
677
729
757
807
873
871
887
924
911
922
953
10th
607
602
648
641
762
697
735
761
809
876
874
889
926
913
924
11th
584
584
554
647
580
695
638
677
698
745
809
806
821
856
843
12th
492
536
531
533
574
567
663
622
653
672
719
778
775
790
822
Total
7,651
7,814
7,968
8,121
8,412
8,645
8,922
9,176
9,531
9,921
10,294
10,664
11,007
11,359
11,730
Total Growth % Growth 163
154
153
291
233
277
254
355
390
373
370
343
352
371
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
3.6%
2.8%
3.2%
2.8%
3.9%
4.1%
3.8%
3.6%
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
•
Waxahachie ISD will enroll 9,000 students by 2019
•
5 year growth = 1,509 students
•
2021/22 enrollment = 9,921 students
•
10 year growth = 3,318 students
•
2026/27 enrollment = 11,730 students
17
Ten Year Forecast
By Campus
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Current
Campus Dunaway Elementary
Felty Elementary
Clift Elementary
Marvin Elementary
Northside Elementary
Shackelford Elementary
Wedgeworth Elementary
ELEMENTARY TOTALS
Elementary Absolute Growth
Elementary Percent Growth
Finley Junior High
Howard Junior High
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS
Middle School Absolute Growth
Middle School Percent Growth
Waxahachie High School
Waxahachie Global High School
Waxahachie HS of Choice
HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS
High School Absolute Growth
High School Percent Growth
DISTRICT TOTALS
District Absolute Growth
District Percent Growth
Capacity 2016/17
650
578
650
614
650
427
600
458
600
484
650
613
800
747
4,600
3,921
67
1.74%
1,050
998
950
900
2,000
1,898
141
8.03%
2,150
2,157
418
18
2,150
2,593
83
3.31%
8,750
8,412
291
3.6%
2017/18
588
650
433
461
444
615
735
3,926
5
0.13%
1,073
958
2,031
133
7.01%
2,252
418
18
2,688
95
3.66%
8,645
233
2.8%
2018/19
578
700
441
457
435
625
753
3,989
63
1.60%
1,138
1,002
2,140
109
5.37%
2,357
418
18
2,793
105
3.91%
8,922
277
3.2%
2019/20
584
754
456
449
424
649
770
4,086
97
2.43%
1,184
1,039
2,223
83
3.88%
2,431
418
18
2,867
74
2.65%
9,176
254
2.8%
2020/21
594
835
483
455
405
665
791
4,228
142
3.48%
1,178
1,092
2,270
47
2.11%
2,597
418
18
3,033
166
5.79%
9,531
355
3.9%
2021/22
607
894
519
460
409
708
850
4,447
219
5.18%
1,167
1,143
2,310
40
1.76%
2,728
418
18
3,164
131
4.32%
9,921
390
4.1%
2022/23
616
932
572
473
416
747
902
4,658
211
4.74%
1,172
1,175
2,347
37
1.60%
2,853
418
18
3,289
125
3.95%
10,294
373
3.8%
2023/24
625
994
631
482
419
789
955
4,895
237
5.09%
1,151
1,221
2,372
25
1.07%
2,961
418
18
3,397
108
3.28%
10,664
370
3.6%
2024/25
630
1,050
687
493
429
841
1,009
5,139
244
4.98%
1,163
1,272
2,435
63
2.66%
2,997
418
18
3,433
36
1.06%
11,007
343
3.2%
2025/26
631
1,094
726
498
430
893
1,056
5,328
189
3.68%
1,191
1,359
2,550
115
4.72%
3,045
418
18
3,481
48
1.40%
11,359
352
3.2%
2026/27
633
1,136
769
496
431
939
1,096
5,500
172
3.23%
1,241
1,447
2,688
138
5.41%
3,106
418
18
3,542
61
1.75%
11,730
371
3.3%
18
Summary
• Waxahachie’s unemployment rate is currently below 3.5%.
• In 2016, almost 30% of home sales within Waxahachie ISD
were of new homes.
• The district has nearly 10,000 planned future lots.
• Saddlebrook Estates accounted for more than 20% of
district new home closings in 2016.
• Waxahachie ISD can expect an increase of approximately
1,500 students during the next 5 years.
• 2021/22 enrollment projection: 9,921 students.
• WISD is projected to enroll 11,730 students for the 2026/27
school year.
www.tdemographics.com
19