European Nitrogen Assessment
Mark Sutton
Boulder, 20 May 2010
What’s the big idea?
• Human produced reactive nitrogen a hidden
force having multiple effects on society
– Half the world’s population depends on human
produced reactive nitrogen
– Nitrogen leading to a web of environmental
effects with many synergies and trade offs.
• We need to understand the system better to
develop more integrated solutions.
Exceedance of critical loads for eutrophication by N-deposition
(Critical load data base 2008; EMEP depositions)
2010-CLE
2000
2020-CLE
2020-MFR
Illustration of the % of species richness due to the exceedance of
critical loads by EMEP-computed depositions in 1990
Source:
CCE Status report 2008
(in prep.)
To be presented at and
reviewed by the
27th session of the
Working Group on Effects.


Nitrogen Spheres of Influence
GHG Balance
O3 strat VON/DON AerosolIN
N site budgets
O3 trop
N & atmos chemistry
N & biodiversity
N & water quality
Nem Ndep
AerosolON
CH4
Habitat
sensitivity
Nfert
Ecosystem
functioning
Nfix
NH3 N2O NOx Ndenit
CO2
NO3-leach
Core of
NitroEurope
Ngroundwater
Nsteam
DONleach
Species
loss
Ecosystem
services
ESF programme: Nitrogen in Europe
Stratospheric
chemistry and ozone
Acidification
Greenhouse gas
of soils & waters
& global warming
Terrestrial
Ozone
eutrophication &
biodiversity
vegetation
& health
Coastal
Urban
& marine
eutrophication
air quality
& health
Aquatic
Particles
eutrophication &
water quality
health, visibility
& global dimming
The nine linked issues provide the mnemonic: ACT AS GROUP
Objectives of the
European Nitrogen Assessment
• To review current scientific understanding of
nitrogen sources, impacts and interactions across
Europe,
• Taking account of current policies and the
economic costs and benefits, as a basis to
• Inform the development of future policies at local
to global scales.
European Nitrogen Assessment (ENA)
•
•
•
•
Major Sponsor: ESF Nitrogen in Europe (NinE)
Information Sources: NEU and other European research
Contribution to: International Nitrogen Initiative (INI)
Reported to: International Conventions on climate, air,
water, biodiversity through the lead of the UNECE
Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN)
• Timing: Workshops & chapters 2008-09. Completion 2010.
• Launch: “Nitrogen & Global Change” conference,
11-15 April 2011, Edinburgh
European Nitrogen Activities
N and the European
GHG balance (EC)
ENA
Nitrogen in Europe
Science network (ESF)
729
Managing N at the
biosphere atmosphere
interface
European
Nitrogen
Assessment
International
Nitrogen
Initiative
Linking UN
Conventions
UNECE
Task Force
on Reactive
Nitrogen
Global
Partnership
on Nutrient
Management
Overall structure of the ENA
1.
Introduction, Scope & Objectives (coordination team)
A. Nitrogen in Europe: the present position (ENA-1, 2008)
2. European N problem in global perspective (Erisman)
3. Benefits of reactive nitrogen for food, fibre and industrial
production (Jensen and Schjoerring)
4. N in current European policies (Oenema)
5. Challenge to integrate N science & policies (Sutton)
B. Nitrogen processing in the biosphere (ENA-2, 2008)
5. N processes & effects in terrestrial ecosystems
(Gunderson & Butterbach Bahl)
6.
7.
N processing in European farming systems (S. Jarvis)
N processes & effects in aquatic ecosystems
(Durand & Breuer)
8.
9.
N processes & effects in coastal/marine ecosystems (Voss)
N processes & effects in the atmosphere (Hertel)
Overall structure of the ENA
C. Dispersion, budgets & impacts of nitrogen on
different scales (ENA-3 workshop, Nov 2008)
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
Rural landscapes (Cellier)
Urban landscapes (Svirejeva Hopkins & Reis)
Regional watersheds (inc. coastal & marine) (Billen)
Atmos transport & deposition over Europe (Simpson)
European Nitrogen balances (Leip and de Vries)
Overview of N fluxes at European scale
(de Vries & Leip)
Overall structure of the ENA
D. Managing nitrogen in relation to key societal
threats (ENA-4 Summer 2009)
Chapter on each of the 5 key threats:
• Water quality
• Air quality (esp. PM and ozone)
• Greenhouse gas balance
• Ecosystem biodiversity
• Soil fertility/soil quality
(Grizzetti)
(Grennfelt and Munthe)
(ButterbachBahl)
(Dise)
(Velthof)
Overall structure of the ENA
E. European N policies and future challenges
ENA-5 Workshop September 2009, Brussels.
20. Costing N in the environment (EN5a, van Grinsven & Klimont)
19. Future N scenarios (ENA5b, Winiwarter)
21. Integrated approaches to better N management (TFRN2,
Oenema)
22. Streamlining European nitrogen management between
international conventions (TFRN2, Bull)
23. Societal choice and the European N challenge (ENA5c, Reay)
General ENA challenges
• Building integration – inviting lead authors
• Length and relationships between chapters,
avoiding overlap
• Balancing referencing (inc grey literature..)
• Top quality synthesis and graphics – make
ENA primary source rather than derivatory
• Bulleted Executive Summaries develop
toward the Summary for Policy Makers
Resources and Ambition
• A streamlined process. ENA has a main focal
point contact to the UN family through TFRN
• Scale of the volume (major integration challenge,
comparision with IPCC, MEA etc)
• The ENA secretariat has 2 part time people only:
We must be aware of what is feasible.
• Open access Full colour volume of 700 pp with
CUP. Substantial Book subsidy .
Lots of maps
In the end to deliver…
• Highlight the issue: why we should care
• Explaining the components, air, land, water
and upscaling the problem.
• Shortlisting the key threats to remember
• How linking N science and policies can
help to manage the problem and maximixe
the benefits.
• The vision of key steps to be taken.
ENA Authorization:
What does the CLRTAP really want?
120%
Emissions relative to 2000
• Short term needs
• To see the science
case for tackling
ammonia and
agriculture.
• To quantify the
syergies and trade
offs with other
threats, esp climate.
• To know how much
is is going to cost and
to quantify the
benefits.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2020
SO2
2000
2020
NOx
Baseline EU
Max Feasible Reduction EU
2000
2020
PM2.5
2000
2020
NH3
2000
2020
VOC
Baseline UNECE
Max Feasible Reduction UNECE
Amman, IIASA
The Nitrogen Assessment Pyramid
Costs...
Science-Policy
Options €200,000
Scientific Review & Assessment
€1,000,000
Scientific underpinning
(measurements & modelling) €20,000,000
Where is our Stern Report for Nitrogen?
Workshop:
The Costs of Ammonia Mitigation
• Will the Parties agree firm actions to reduce
ammonia emissions under Gothenburg?
• Is ammonia mitigation:
– An untouchable problem best ignored?
– A step towards saving the farmer money and helping to
meet climate commitments…?
• TFRN Workshop 10/2010, Paris : € /kg N abated
• Key input required to support policy decisions on
revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.
The Bottom line
Science is needed,
But don’t neglect the costings.