January 2010
NHS England Carbon Footprint:
GHG emissions
1990-2020 baseline emissions update
29 January 2010
1
Summary
The original 1990-2020 baseline emissions study 1 estimated historic CO2 emissions for the period 1990-2004,
and forecast emissions to 2020 using a continuing trends analysis. This baseline forecast was used in the carbon
reduction strategy 2 to overlay targets for future carbon reduction.
In 2010 the 1990-2020 analysis was updated in three key areas which are summarised below and then given in
more detail in subsequent sections:
1. Change to GHG emissions: the analysis now uses greenhouse gas (GHG) rather than CO2 emissions,
and the results are displayed in CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2e);
2. Procurement Input-Output (IO) data: this updates the procurement data for 2004-2007. Due to
structural improvements in IO methodology in this period compared to the previous 1992-2004 data,
these structural changes were also applied to the years 1990-2004 and 2007-2020 for consistency;
3. Updated building energy data (1990-1998): actual energy data provided by the Department of Health
has been incorporated into the calculations to update the previous data for 1990-1998.
Including these changes, the new 1990-2020 CO2e emissions baseline is shown below, with also an updated
Climate Change Act 3 target of 34% reduction by 2020:
Figure 1: NHS England CO2e baseline to 2020 with Climate Change targets
1
NHS England Carbon Emissions; Carbon footprint modelling to 2020. Available at http://www.sdu.nhs.uk/page.php?page_id=93
2
Saving Carbon, Improving Health. Available at http://www.sdu.nhs.uk/page.php?area_id=2
3
Climate Change Act 2008 (2020 Target, Credit limit and Definitions) order 2009, Available at:
www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2009/uksi_20091258_en_1
2
Key update #1: change to GHG emissions
The analysis now uses greenhouse gas (GHG) rather than CO2e emissions factors, and the results are
displayedCO2e emissions. This is consistent with the 2008 Climate Change Act 4 and also the 2009 Defra GHG
reporting conventions 5 . The six Kyoto greenhouse gases are summarised below, with their Global Warming
Potential (GWP) over a 100 year period – which indicates how much more effective each gas is than CO2 at
trapping heat in the atmosphere (for more information on GWP refer to the 2007 IPCC report 6 , p.212).
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
perfluorocarbons (PFCs):
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
GWP = 1
GWP = 25
GWP = 298
GWP = 124 – 14,800
GWP = 7,390 – 12,200
GWP = 22,800
The graph below shows the original 1990-2020 CO2 analysis superimposed by the CO2e graph for the same
period.
Figure 2: 1990-2020 NHS England Baseline emissions - Change 1 moving from CO2 to CO2e
Reporting GHG emissions has altered the graph in two distinct time periods:
1. 1990 the difference between CO2e and CO2 emissions is around 30%, which reduces to 10% by the end
of the decade. This is believed to be because of increasing efficiency in this period, and international
action to reduce the non CO2 greenhouse gases – for example through the 1988 Montreal Protocol;
2. Between 2000-2020, GHG emissions settle down to around 10% higher than the CO2 only values.
4
Climate Change Act 2008. (c.27), London: HMSO
5
2009 Reporting Environmental Impacts Defra / DECC's GHG Conversion Factors available at
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/business/reporting/conversion-factors.htm
6
Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 2 available at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_Ch02.pdf
3
Key update #2: Procurement Input Output (IO) data update
The recent addition of the Supply and Use tables for 2005, 2006 and 2007 show key differences emerging to
previous data (1992-2004) in the expenditure profile of the health sector, which was used as the basis of the NHS
England procurement emissions. There is a step change in Government data due to the introduction of a new
system of allocation of government spend. The comparison below in Table 1 shows the differences in spend
within the 5 sectors, including the two key NHS sectors (pharmaceuticals and medical equipment), which remain
fairly consistent.
Sector
43. Pharmaceuticals
49. Glass products
57. Structural metal products
76. Medical equipment
100. Banking and finance
Health sector expenditure (£ Million)
2004 (version 2006) 2004 (version 2009)
9,262
9,064
18
3
20
2
4,532
4,315
55
215
Table 1: A comparison of example sectors between 2006 and 2009 editions: health sector expenditure for 2004
To ensure compatibility of results, the changes to the 2004-2007 period were also applied to the 1990-2004 and
2007-2020 periods. The effect of this change is shown by the graph below of the original 1990-2020 CO2 analysis
superimposed by the IO data changes:
Figure 3: 1990-2020 NHS England Baseline emissions - Change 2: IO data changes
Including the IO data revisions across 1990-2020 lowers the overall calculated CO2 emissions by around 10%.
This is because the overall intermediate spend levels are now slightly lower than previously assumed, resulting in
lower procurement emissions. Travel and building energy sectors are almost identical – the key change is in
procurement emissions
4
Key update #3: updated building energy data (1990-1999)
The original 1990-2020 CO2 analysis used backcast building energy data for the period 1990-1998, as the ERIC 7
data system only contained data for the year 1999-2007. Historical data on building energy use has been
received from the Department of Health and this has been incorporated into the calculations. The table below
shows the new data and compares it to the previous values used (see 1990-2020 report 8 , p.38-39).
Energy consumption (GWh)
Gas
Oil
Coal
Electricity
Total – new data
Total– old energy data
% difference new/old total
energy use
Year
1990
7,510
4,699
2,439
2,693
17,341
11,415
1991
7,389
4,251
2,031
2,649
16,319
11,440
1992
7,267
3,802
1,624
2,604
15,298
11,464
1993
7,146
3,354
1,216
2,560
14,276
11,447
1994
7,955
2,906
1,421
2,365
14,646
11,446
1995
7,063
1,991
1,259
2,346
12,660
11,439
1996
7,788
1,644
1,144
2,319
12,895
11,558
1997
6,980
1,165
906
2,147
11,198
11,602
1998
7,956
1,175
837
2,420
12,388
11,690
1999
7,531
1,100
732
2,497
11,859
11,971
+52%
+43%
+33%
+25%
+28%
+11%
+12%
-3%
+6%
-1%
Table 3: Updated NHS England energy data
Table 3 shows total NHS England energy use reduced by around 40% over this decade. This is most likely due
to a decrease in estate size coupled to improvements in building energy efficiency.
The graph below shows the original 1990-2020 CO2 analysis superimposed with the updated energy data:
Figure 4: 1990-2020 NHS England Baseline emissions - Change 3: energy data changes
7
The Department of Health’s Estates Return and information Collection (ERIC) data. Available at http://www.hefs.ic.nhs.uk
8
NHS England Carbon Emissions; Carbon footprint modelling to 2020. Available at http://www.sdu.nhs.uk/page.php?page_id=93
5
2007 emissions baseline year
The NHS England carbon reduction strategy has a target to reduce its emissions by 10% by 2015 (based on 2007
baseline data) from 21 MtCO2e to 19 MtCO2e. The breakdown of CO2e data for the baseline year of 2007 is
shown below:
Sector
2007 emissions
MtCO2e
% of total
Travel
3.62
17%
Building energy
5.18
24%
Procurement
12.41
59%
Total
21.21
100%
Table 4 - 2007 NHS England GHG emissions: Primary sector breakdown
Figure 5: breakdown of 2007 NHS England consumption-based GHG emissions (21MtCO2e
6