Texas and Waco: Demographic
Characteristics and Trends
Waco Business League
April 10, 2012
Waco, TX
Growing States, 2000‐2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
15.7% of numerical
change in U.S.
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2011
Percent Change Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change**
Percent
Change
--
--
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
--
--
1950
7,711,194
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
18.8
54.04
45.33
2010
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6
2011
25,674,681
529,120
2.1
54.79
44.99
All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year.
Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
** Change is from previous decade/time period
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
3
Components of Change Texas and McLennan County, 2010 to 2011
Vital Events
Geographic Area
Texas
McLennan County
Total Population Change
529,120
3,658
Natural Increase
Deaths
Total
288,479 493,650 205,171 238,956
1,792
49%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
Births
Net Migration
4,197
2,405
1,855
51%
Inter‐
national
Domestic
93,641
145,315
477
1,378
Population Change in McLennan County, 1980‐2010
County McLennan
1980 1990 2000 2010 170,755
189,123
213,517
234,906
250,000
200,000
150,000
1980
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 1980‐2010.
1990
2000
2010
McLennan County Population by Year, 2000‐2010 McLennan County
240,000
235,000
230,000
225,000
220,000
215,000
210,000
205,000
200,000
6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.
Demographic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas
Waco
Population, 2010 McLennan County
Texas
124,805
234,906
25,145,561
9.7%
10.0%
20.6%
113,726
213,517
20,851,820
Persons under 5 years, percent, 2010 7.7%
7.1%
7.7%
Persons under 18 years, percent, 2010 24.7%
25.4%
27.3%
Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2010 11.3%
12.5%
10.3%
Female persons, percent, 2010 52.1%
51.4%
50.4%
Population, percent change, 2000 to 2010 Population, 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Counts 2000 and 2010.
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Race and Ethnic Characteristics of Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2010
Percent White
Percent Black
McLennan Waco
County
59.2%
69.8%
Texas
70.4%
21.5%
14.8%
11.8%
Percent American Indian and Alaska Native
0.6%
0.6%
0.7%
Percent Asian
1.8%
1.4%
3.8%
Percent Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
Percent 2 or More Races
2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
Percent Hispanic (any race)
29.6%
23.6%
37.6%
Percent White Not Hispanic
45.8%
58.9%
45.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Census Count 2010.
8
Businesses by Ownership and Retail Sales for Waco, McLennan County andTexas
McLennan County
Waco
Total number of firms, 2007
Texas
7,912
16,888
2,164,852
S
5.1%
7.1%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007
S
1.6%
5.3%
Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007
S
8.9%
20.7%
24.9%
28.4%
28.2%
$16,068
$12,892
$13,061
Black-owned firms, percent, 2007
American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned
firms, percent, 2007
Women-owned firms, percent, 2007
Retail sales per capita, 2007
S – suppressed value due to small values
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.
9
Housing and Households for Waco, McLennan County and Texas
Waco
McLennan County
Texas
Housing units, 2010
51,452
95,124
9,977,436
Homeownership rate, 2006-2010
Housing units in multi-unit structures,
percent, 2006-2010
Median value of owner-occupied housing
units, 2006-2010
46.6%
60.1%
64.8%
38.4%
24.3%
24.1%
$86,600 $101,000
$123,500
Households, 2006-2010
Persons per household, 2006-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.
44,349
82,998
8,539,206
2.61
2.68
2.78
10
Income and Employment Change for
Waco, McLennan County and Texas
Waco
McLennan County
Texas
Per capita money income in past 12
months (2010 dollars), 2006-2010
$17,323
$20,652
$24,870
Median household income, 2006-2010
$31,288
$40,672
$49,646
28.7%
20.5%
16.8%
4.3%
11.2%
Percent below poverty level, 2006-2010
Percent change private nonfarm
employment, 2000-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.
-
11
Income and Employment Change for
Waco, McLennan County and Texas, 2006‐2010
McLenna
Waco n County
Texas
Percent living in same house 1+ years
75.6%
81.1%
81.5%
Percent foreign born
Percent age 5+ where language other than
English spoken at home
Percent age 25+ that are
High school graduates
Percent age 25+ with
Bachelor's degree or higher
Mean travel time to work (minutes) for
workers age 16+
10.5%
8.2%
16.1%
23.6%
18.2%
34.2%
75.5%
80.3%
80.0%
20.3%
20.6%
25.8%
16.4
18.5
24.8
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. State and County QuickFacts.
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Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000‐2009
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000‐2009
52% of all migrants were international
100%
5%
90%
80%
23%
18%
12%
8%
15%
70%
60%
67% of all
migrants
28%
50%
50%
40%
40%
Other
30%
Black
20%
44%
24%
10%
33%
Hispanic
White
0%
Net domestic
migration
(848,702 migrants )
International
migration
(933,083 migrants) Total
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006‐2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000‐2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 State
Estimate
(thousands)
Range
California
2,550
(2,350 - 2,750)
Texas
1,650
(1,450 - 1,850)
Florida
825
(725 - 950)
New York
625
(525 - 725)
New Jersey
550
(425 - 650)
Illinois
525
(425 - 625)
Georgia
425
(300 - 550)
Arizona
400
(275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
6.5% of
Texas’ 2010
Population
15
Estimated Domestic Migration (2000‐2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
16
Estimated International Migration (2000‐2008) by County as a Percentage of 2000 Population
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
17
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html
18
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
2010
2000
Hispanic or Latino
32%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
38%
NH White
53%
NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. NH White
45%
NH Other
6%
NH Black
11%
Texas White (non‐Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
250000
200000
Population
White (non‐Hispanic)
Hispanic
150000
100000
50000
0
Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
20
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non‐Hispanic
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non‐Hispanic
Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non‐Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non‐Hispanic
Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Texas Population Pyramid by White (non‐Hispanic), 2010
Male White, Non‐Hispanic
Female White, Non‐Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000
150,000
100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
22
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male Hispanic
Male Black, Non‐Hispanic
Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic
Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic
Female Black, Non‐Hispanic
Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic
Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000 150,000 100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
50,000
0
50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000
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McLennan County Population Pyramid, 2010
85+ yrs
80‐84 yrs
75‐79 yrs
70‐74 yrs
65‐69 yrs
60‐64 yrs
55‐59 yrs
50‐54 yrs
45‐49 yrs
Males
40‐44 yrs
Females
35‐39 yrs
30‐34 yrs
25‐29 yrs
20‐24 yrs
15‐19 yrs
10‐14 yrs
5‐9 yrs
0‐4 yrs
‐6.0%
‐4.0%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Decennial Census, SF1.
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
24
Total Population by County, 2010
p
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census Count.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
25
Numeric Change of Total Population by County, 2000‐2010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
26
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000‐2040
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections. 27
Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000‐2040
70%
60%
50%
40%
Anglo
30%
Black
Hispanic
20%
Other
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000‐2007 Migration Scenario.
28
Projected Population by Texas Counties, 2040
36 - 1000
1001 - 10000
10001 - 50000
50001 - 100000
100001 - 500000
500001 - 1000000
1000001 - 8000000
Source: Texas State Data Center. Vintage 2008 Population Projections,
2000‐2007 Migration Scenario. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008‐2040
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more) for Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
Less Than High School
College and Greater
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1‐Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 31
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
35.0
30.1
30.0
29.0
28.7
28.7
23.9
Percent
25.0
20.0
18.8
18.2
15.0
12.9
10.0
5.3
5.0
4.4
0.0
No High School Diploma High School Graduate
Some College
2000
Bachelor's Degree
2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Percent of Persons Aged 25+ without HS Degree
60.0
50.0
40.0
Texas
30.0
McLennan County
20.0
10.0
0.0
1970
1980
Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA
1990
2000
2006‐2010
33
Percent of Persons Aged 25+ with College Degree
30
25
20
Texas
15
McLennan County
10
5
0
1970
1980
Source: Alexander Marre, ERS, USDA
1990
2000
2006‐2010
34
Grade 9 Longitudinal Graduation, Completion, and Dropout Rates, Class of 2010
Graduated
District
Texas
Axtell ISD
Bosqueville ISD
Bruceville‐Eddy ISD
China Spring ISD
Connally ISD
Crawford ISD
La Vega ISD
Lorena ISD
Mart ISD
McGregor ISD
Midway ISD
Moody ISD
Riesel ISD
Robinson ISD
Waco ISD
West ISD
Class
314,079
<100
49
<100
<200
<150
<100
<200
<200
<50
<100
425
<100
45
181
920
<150
Source: Texas Education Agency
Continued
Received GED
Dropped out
Graduated or Graduated or continued, or continued
received GED
Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%) Number Rate (%)
264,632
‐
49
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
405
‐
45
181
678
‐
84.3 22,532
85.2
‐
7.2
3.3
3,927
‐
100
89.7
98.1
94.6
96.2
81.2
89.6
88.2
96.1
95.3
90.9
100
100
73.7
94.1
0
2.9
0
3.9
1.9
5.3
1.3
0
0
2.1
0
0
0
7.2
0.8
0
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
6
‐
0
0
14
‐
0
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
9
‐
0
0
66
‐
1.3 22,988
3.3
‐
0
1.5
0.6
1.6
1.9
2.4
1.9
2.9
1.3
1.4
5.5
0
0
1.5
0
0
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
5
‐
0
0
162
‐
7.3 287,164
8.2
‐
0
5.9
1.2
0
0
11.2
7.1
8.8
2.6
1.2
3.6
0
0
17.6
5.1
49
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
414
‐
45
181
744
‐
91.4 291,091
88.5
‐
92.7
91.8
100
92.6
98.1
98.4
98.1
86.5
90.9
88.2
96.1
97.4
90.9
100
100
80.9
94.9
100
94.1
98.8
100
100
88.8
92.9
91.2
97.4
98.8
96.4
100
100
82.4
94.9
49
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
420
‐
45
181
758
‐
35
High School Graduates (2008‐2009) Enrolled in College the Following Year
District name
Texas
McLennan county
Axtell ISD*
Bosqueville ISD*
Bruceville‐Eddy ISD*
China spring ISD
Connally ISD*
Crawford ISD*
La Vega ISD*
Lorena ISD*
Mart ISD*
McGregor ISD*
Midway ISD
Moody ISD*
Riesel ISD
Robinson ISD
Waco ISD
West ISD
Total high school graduates
264,275 2,347 50 42 70 140 134 40 106 99 43 71 465 48 32 174 722 111 In‐state
134,548 1,408 32 30 44 94
87 31 58 72 21 34 316 27 21 110 357 74 Out‐of‐
state
14,178 62 ‐
‐
‐
6 ‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
‐
31 ‐
‐
‐
13 ‐
Percent
56%
63%
64%
71%
63%
71%
65%
78%
55%
73%
49%
48%
75%
56%
66%
63%
51%
67%
* A small number of students in these districts enrolled in college out-of-state but numbers were masked to comply with FERPA
Source: Texas Education Agency, PEIMS 36
Demographics and Destiny
37
Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
Office: (512) 463‐8390 or (210) 458‐6530
Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
38