Getting water into the ground and to the channel, Gordon Gulch, Colorado By Eirik Melbye Buraas Professor David P. Dethier, Advisor A thesis Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts With Honors in Geosciences WILLIAMS COLLEGE Williamstown, Massachusetts May 19th, 2009 i ABSTRACT Steady-state and falling-head infiltration tests in Gordon Gulch, a forested upland catchment in the Colorado Front Range, show that rates exceed 50 mm hr-1 in most areas. Soil infiltration rates, measured using a double-ring infiltrometer at 42 sites in upper Gordon Gulch, correlate with field measurements of soil resistance and with laboratory values of soil sorting, loss-on-ignition (LOI), and soil composition. These four soil properties are significantly correlated with infiltration rates (pvalue<0.05). Rates are lower, generally < 14 mm hr-1 on dirt roads, trails and recently logged areas. Peak discharges in channels reflect precipitation intensity and the distributed infiltration rate determined by soil physical factors. Because neither rainfall intensity nor peak discharge have been measured in the vicinity of Gordon Gulch, rates had to be estimated using syntheses of existing data and simple runoff models. Precipitation intensities for the 1-hr storm were estimated at 27 mm for the 10-year storm, 42 mm for the 100-year storm and 46 mm for the 200-year storm. Peak discharges for the 0.93 km2 upper Gordon Gulch were modeled under various test scenarios using the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro. Calculated peak discharge values from the two models show both similarities and differences, depending on the model scenario. Impervious areas and human alteration of the Gordon Gulch environment have decreased natural infiltration rates and the models suggest that the largest contribution to peak discharge comes from areas covered by roads and trails, fire preventative logging and possibly from rock outcrops. Calculated peak discharge, which ranges from 0.22 m3 s-1 for the 5-year storm to 0.80 m3 s-1 for the 200-year storm when roads and trails are included, is a small fraction of total peak discharges measured in the 804 km2 Boulder Creek catchment. Despite the influence of altered land use, peak flows from upper Gordon Gulch alone do not present any i immediate flood danger in Boulder Canyon. However, if there was already significant flow in Boulder Creek, thunderstorms covering a few tens of km2 of watersheds, like upper Gordon Gulch, could represent a flash flood hazard for Boulder Creek similar to that experienced east of Estes Park in the Big Thompson Flood of 1976, which killed 139 people. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to thank my thesis advisor, Professor David P. Dethier for giving me the opportunity to participate in his exciting field research and giving me excellent advice and help throughout the entire process. He was also the one who introduced me to the field of Geosciences my freshmen year and is one of the main reasons that I became interested in this great science. I would like to thank Professor Markes Johnson for taking on the task of being my second reader, contributing valuable comments and suggestions for improving my written thesis. I would thank the National Science Foundation for providing support and making my thesis research possible and I would thank the Boulder Creek Critical Zone project for allowing me to contribute to their research. Next I would like to thank Professor Matthias Leopold (Technical University of Munich) for his contribution from geophysical work and Evey Gannaway, Ken Nelson and Miguel Rodrigues, the three KECK students, for their work in helping me collect field data and for their great company. I would also like to thank the entire staff of the Williams College Geosciences department for all their support in pursuing my interests within the field of Geosciences and their incredible teaching throughout my college career. At last I would like to thank my family, friends and Kavitha for providing moral support and great company throughout the entire process. I would not have made it this far without any of you. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………...…….…......i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS………………………………….……..…………....…iii LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………............vi LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………….ix LIST OF EQUATIONS………………………………………………......................x LIST OF APPENDICES………………………………………………….................xi Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………....1 Background Basic hydrology…………………………………………………………….....1 The Critical Zone…………………………………………………………......8 Location and topography……………………………………………………10 Geologic background………………………………………………………..13 Climate and vegetation……………………………………………………...15 Local history and land use………………………………………………….21 This study: soils, infiltration and surface-water hydrology………………….....26 Chapter 2: METHODS…………………………………………………..................32 Field Mapping……………………………………………………….………...........32 Infiltration measurements…………………………………………………..34 Soil compaction measurements…………………………………………....38 Soil sampling…………………………………………………………………39 Geophysical measurements ………………………………………………..39 Laboratory……………………………………………………………..……………...40 Moisture content and loss on ignition (LOI)…………………………….40 iv Grain size analysis……………………………………………………...…...41 Hydrologic calculations and models……………………………………………....43 Rainfall intensity……………………………………………………………..44 Time of concentration………………………………………………...........45 Calculations of area of impermeable surfaces……………………...…..46 Infiltration rates after fire…………………………………………………..47 Modeling of peak discharge………………………………………………..47 Chapter 3: RESULTS……………………………………………………………...51 Soil analysis…………………………………………………………………………...51 Infiltration rates………………………………………………………………………53 Infiltration rates and soil properties……………………………………………….54 Rainfall intensity………………………………………………………………….…..59 Geophysics…………………………………………………………………………….60 Calculated peak discharges, upper Gordon Gulch………………………………61 Chapter 4: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS.................................................63 Discussion Model limitations……..……………………………………………………..63 Factors controlling infiltration rates…………………………………......65 Uncertainties in measured infiltration rates……………………………..70 Calculated peak discharges, upper Gordon Gulch………………….....71 Human impact and impact of rock outcrops on basin hydrology…….77 Flood danger………………………………………………………..………..80 Conclusions and suggestions for future work………………………………..82 REFERENCES CITED……………………………………………………………85 APPENDIX…………………………………………………………………..…......88 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. A simplified model of the global hydrologic cycle……..…………………...1 Figure 2. Upper Gordon Gulch (outlined in thick red line) showing all tributaries.......2 Figure 3. Detailed figure of water pathways in the unsaturated zone (Dingman, 2002)…………………………………………………………...…...4 Figure 4. Flow-pathways in the unsaturated and the saturated zone (Dingman, 2002)……………………………………………………………......5 Figure 5. Cross-section of the Critical Zone, its materials and dominant processes (Anderson et al. 2007)……………………………..……….………..9 Figure 6. Location of the study site; upper Gordon Gulch is shaded red (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/us2001/coloradoref2001.jpg, http://www.boulder.doc.gov/gifs/boco_map.jpeg)............................................10 Figure 7. Overview of the upper Gordon Gulch watershed looking to the northwest with Niwot Ridge in the background……………………………...11 Figure 8. Topographic profile of the Front Range (Bubel, 2008)……………………12 Figure 9. Extent of Pleistocene glaciations (extent of Gordon Gulch shown in red)...13 Figure 10. Geologic map of Gordon Gulch (Gable, 1980)…………………………..14 Figure 11. Elevation gradient of temperature, precipitation and vegetation for the Front Range (Birkeland et al., 2003, modified from Veblen and Lorenz, 1991)…………………………………………………………………………..15 Figure 12. Weather station location compared to Gordon Gulch; upper Gordon Gulch is outlined in red………………………………………………………16 Figure 13. Monthly precipitation records for C-1 from 2006-2008 (INSTAAR, 2009)…………………………………………………………….17 Figure 14. Total annual precipitation amount for C-1, May through September 2001-2008 (INSTAAR, 2009)……………………………………………...…17 Figure 15. North facing and south facing slope in the Gordon Gulch watershed, looking from south-facing to north-facing slope……………….....20 vi Figure 16. Frankenberger Point on the Switzerland Trail A: 1905 B: 1984 (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991………………………………………………...…..24 Figure 17. Extent of areas of fire prevention patch cutting in Gordon Gulch, area values are for the area of the fire cuts that are within the catchment Boundaries…………………………………………………………………….25 Figure 18. Sketch of the 2-D lateral movement of water from a single ring infiltrometer, due to capillary forces (Dingman, 2002)………………….27 Figure 19. Relationship between clay content and soil age (Machette et al., 1976 in Birkeland et al., 2003)………………………………………………..30 Figure 20. Swath traverses used for mapping outcrop distribution…………………..33 Figure 21. A typical “extra large” outcrop of biotite gneiss in Gordon Gulch (Evey Gannaway, is 1.8 m tall)………………………………………..…......34 Figure 22. Infiltration sites by environment; tributaries in blue and roads in black....36 Figure 23. Double ring infiltrometer, with a 15 cm diameter inner ring, prepared an infiltration measurement…………………………………………………...37 Figure 24. Proper use of the dynamic cone penetrometer (demonstrated by Evey Gannaway)……………………………………………………………...39 Figure 25. Beckman Multisizer™ 3 Coulter Counter………………………………..42 Figure 26. Sand, silt and clay ternary diagram (characterization after Folk, 1954), S, sand, s, sandy, Z, silt, z, silty, M, mud, m, muddy, C, clay, c, clayey………………………………………………………………....51 Figure 27. Average infiltration rates for different environments: error bars show one standard deviation………………………………………………....53 Figure 28. Infiltration rate vs soil sorting. Higher Φ values represent more poorly sorted soil (Folk, 1961)………………………………………….…….55 Figure 29. Infiltration rate vs amount of organic matter (LOI) in weight percent…..56 Figure 30. Infiltration rate vs soil weight % <62.5μm……………………………….56 Figure 31. Infiltration rate vs soil resistance from 0 to -15 cm……………………....57 vii Figure 32. Soil resistance and infiltration rates for the different environments, roads and trails in blue, forest soil in red and hillslope in green……………...58 Figure 33. Infiltration and soil resistance, highlighting values from fire prevention areas (in red)…………………………………………………..…..58 Figure 34. Calculated rainfall amounts and recurrence intervals averaged between C-1 and Sugarloaf (Table 2); one-hour rainfall amount is in blue and 24-hour rainfall amount is in red……………………………………...….59 Figure 35. 24-hour rainfall amount for selected watersheds at different elevations in the Colorado Front Range. Sugarloaf, C-1 and NOAA are interpolated data sets, other values are measured data sets. Flatiron Reservoir (1678m) is in blue, Cabin Creek (3055m) is in red, Gross Reservoir (2430m) is in green, Evergreen (2130m) is in purple, Sugarloaf (2052m) is in light blue, C-1 (3017m) is in orange and NOAA estimated Gordon Gulch (2500-2700m) is in black……….………....60 Figure 36. Interpreted subsurface layering along a resistivity line along the valley of upper Gordon Gulch (Matthias Leopold, Technical University of Munich)………………………………………………………...61 Figure 37. Flow directions in upper Gordon Gulch………………………………….72 Figure 38. Infiltration rate distribution (IDW) in upper Gordon Gulch……………..73 Figure 39. Modeled peak discharges under different scenarios, x-axis shows recurrence intervals in years and mm/hr for each data point…………74 Figure 40. Comparison between values of unit peak discharge in Spring Creek, Colorado, with upper Gordon Gulch, Colorado. ArcHydro model values incorporating roads and trails are shown in red, ArcHydro model values incorporating a saturated stream buffer in addition to roads and trails are in blue and data points representing different years of measured discharge in Spring Creek are shown in black (Moody and Martin, 2001)…..76 Fig 41. Measured peak discharge for three comparable Front Range basins plus Gordon Gulch. Bobtail Creek is in blue, Bear Creek is in red, Michigan Creek is in green and upper Gordon Gulch is in purple……………………...77 Figure 42. Photo near 7th Street in Boulder looking east during the 1894 flood (BASIN, 2009)…………………………………………………….…….….81 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Environment and number of infiltration measurements……………………35 Table 2. Rainfall Intensities for different recurrence intervals (Payton and Brendecke, 1985; Miller et al., 1973). Values for C-1 and Sugarloaf were calculated using the Gumbel method of extreme value theory (Equation 7)…………………………………………………………………...44 Table 3. Calculated time of concentration for the upper Gordon Gulch watershed....46 Table 4. The various model scenarios. IDW is the natural infiltration rates and IDW fire is natural infiltration rates after a forest fire………………………..48 Table 5. Summary of soil properties………………………………………………....52 Table 6. R2 and p values for road/trail-infiltration rate correlations compared to infiltration correlations from vegetated sites. P-values of <0.05 represents the probability that the outcome supports the null hypothesis……………………………………………………...………...54 Table 7. Predicted peak discharge (m3/sec) under different model scenarios……......62 ix LIST OF EQUATIONS Equation 1. Conservation equation (Dingman, 2002)………………………………..3 Equation 2. Rational runoff formula (Dingman, 2002)………………………….….28 Equation 3. Soil resistance (Herrick and Jones 2002)………………………………38 Equation 4. Moisture content (Racela, Williams College, 2008)…………………...40 Equation 5. Loss on ignition (Racela, Williams College, 2008)……………………41 Equation 6. Methods of moments (Folk, 1961)……………………………………..43 Equation 7. Gumbel method of extreme value theory………………………………45 Equation 8. Papadakis and Kazan equation (Loukas and Quick, 1996)…………….45 x LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A. Complete table of soil analysis data…………………………………...88 Appendix B. Complete table of field measurements………………………………..89 xi Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION Background Basic hydrology The hydrologic cycle (Fig. 1) has been recognized and partially understood since the great civilizations of Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, Hwang Ho in China and the Nile in Egypt, first started to irrigate their crops, about 5000-6000 B.P (Dingman, 2002). Use of the hydrological cycle was of great importance to the survival and wealth of these areas. Contemporary studies of the hydrological cycle focus on water supply, hazards and a variety of topics with an environmental focus, quantifying how the impact of land use change interacts with the hydrologic cycle. Human alteration of forested environments has the potential for disastrous impacts, e.g. the stripping of trees from hillsides increases the potential danger for downstream flooding and debris. The study of hydrology can be divided into the global hydrologic cycle and the land (terrestrial) phase of the hydrologic cycle (Dingman, 2002). Figure 1. A simplified model of the global hydrologic cycle 1 The terrestrial phase of the hydrologic cycle involves the processes of water storage and movement on and beneath the earth’s surface, and the physical and chemical interactions with the earth material (Dingman, 2002), within the Critical Zone. Studies on basin hydrology usually focus on small research areas with welldefined boundaries, like a single catchment, which is confined by the area between topographic divides that contains all of the tributaries to the stream, e.g. Gordon Gulch catchment (Fig. 2). The major concepts of the global hydrologic cycle are mainly scale-independent, but the most important factors in small catchments are the interaction between the amount of precipitation and storage and the volume and timing of water that gets into the stream to be measured as discharge. The magnitude of these interactions determines the change in water storage. Figure 2. Upper Gordon Gulch (outlined in thick red line) showing all tributaries 2 Conservation of mass applied to basin hydrology can be written as the conservation equation (Dingman, 2002): R=P-ET±ΔS (eq.1) where R=runoff, P=precipitation, ET=evapotranspiration and ΔS=change in storage. Water balance must be defined for a measured area (area of study) and for a defined time-period (Dingman, 2002). Detailed analysis of water balance involves quantifying the amount of water that flows down the different water-pathways in the catchment. The value for Δ in storage is usually set at zero over a water year and can be measured during short periods when evapotranspiration values are small compared to water flux and the change in storage (Dingman, 2002). This allows researchers to simplify calculations for runoff, amount of evapotranspiration and hydrologic production. In this study I can only model the amount of water that travels to the channel by different water-pathways, because Gordon Gulch does not yet have hydrologic instrumentation. Depending on the soil infiltration rate, water from precipitation either infiltrates or ponds on the surface. Ponding on the surface occurs when the intensity of the precipitation exceeds the infiltration rate (Hortonian overland flow) and when the water table rises to the surface (saturation overland flow). Hortonian overland flow is believed to be one of the main mechanisms for flash flood events (Dingman, 2002). Because the water input rate has to exceed the hydraulic conductivity to produce Hortonian overland flow, Hortonian overland flow occurs in undisturbed soils mainly in areas with relatively intense rainfall and relatively fine-grained soils. This is an 3 especially important flood mechanism in the semi-arid and arid parts of the western United States (Dingman, 2002). Hortonian overland flow is more common where soils have been disturbed and compacted. However, it should be noted that many studies have been done on mineral soils only, and an increase of organic material in the upper soil horizons increases the hydraulic conductivity of the soil (Dingman, 2002). If intense precipitation continues, water may get to channels from Hortonian overland flow if the event continues and there is a direct flow-path for the water to reach the channel. Figure 3. Detailed figure of water pathways in the unsaturated zone (Dingman, 2002) As precipitation infiltrates into the subsurface, it moves through an unsaturated zone (Fig. 3) and a saturated zone (Fig. 4). The redistribution of infiltrated water in the unsaturated zone can involve several processes, including exfiltration, capillary rise, 4 recharge of saturated zones, transpiration and interflow (Dingman, 2002). Interflow is the flow of water through the pore space of the soil material and pore size has a large impact on the infiltration rate. The size of pores that are available for water-flow is approximately equal to grain size. The distribution of available pore space can be determined from the grain size distribution, where pore space is thought to decrease with depth and compaction (Dingman, 2002). Water that does not fill up pore space in the unsaturated zone will displace water that is already stored, and could contribute to the output of water from the catchment. Figure 4. Flow-pathways in the unsaturated and the saturated zone (Dingman, 2002) In the saturated zone pores between rocks and soil particles are completely filled in contrast to the mixing between water and air in the pores of the unsaturated zone (USGS Water Science for Schools, 2008). The saturated zone extends below the water table, and may consist of both unconfined and confined aquifers. The natural filling of deep aquifers is a slow process that depends on the rate of water movement 5 through the unsaturated zone, which depends on the factors discussed above. Because of this slow rate of recharge, the draining of important ground water sources has serious implications for water supply in the future. In a catchment, flow to the channel includes contributions mainly from the saturated zone, except during intense rainfall or snowmelt, when flow pathways at and near the surface may be important (Fig. 4). The infiltration rate is determined by material properties of the soil. These properties include the distribution of pore and particle sizes, particle density, bulk density, porosity, degree of saturation, hydraulic conductivity and amount of compaction (Dingman, 2002). Particle density is the weighted average density of the mineral grains in the soil. It is usually set at 2650 kg/m3, the density of quartz (Dingman, 2002). Bulk density is measured using volume and the dry density of the soil calculated as the weight of the dried soil compared to the weight of the original soil. Bulk density is usually assumed to be constant over time. The porosity of the soil is the proportion of pore spaces available for water flow in a volume of soil. Porosity is calculated from the particle density and the bulk density; maximum porosity may approach 0.8 (Dingman, 2002). The degree of saturation describes the proportion of the pores that contains water, and can be determined from the relationship between the moisture content of the soil and the soil porosity (Dingman, 2002). Hydraulic conductivity is the rate that water moves through a medium, and is mostly determined from the size of the pathways available for water transport (Dingman, 2002). The saturated hydraulic conductivity is approximately the same as the minimum infiltration rate of the soil, and is frequently a function of grain size and sorting. However, many factors can cause the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the surface layers to be different from the soils underneath (Dingman, 2002). These factors include organic surface layers, frost, swelling-drying, rain compaction, 6 inwashing of fine sediment and human modification of the soil surface (Dingman, 2002). I tried to minimize the influence of these factors by removing the organic layer and placing the double-ring infiltrometer at the boundary between the A- and Bhorizons. Compaction is a measure of packing and porosity of the soil, usually measured as bulk density. Short-term changes in compaction come from external disturbance of the soil; in Gordon Gulch compaction comes from construction of trails and roads and use by logging machinery and smaller vehicles. A change in soil compaction can include three separate processes: compression, compaction, and consolidation (Coder, 2000). Compression leads to loss of total pore space and an increase in capillary pore space, and occurs mostly in wet soils (Coder, 2000). True compaction is the translocation and resorting of soil texture and the destruction of soil aggregates (Coder, 2000). Consolidation is the deformation of soils destroying pore space and structure. This leads to increased soil strength as more particle-to-particle contact is produced (Coder, 2000). Studies have shown that a change in measured penetration resistance is correlated with a change in compaction (Herrick and Jones, 2002). Resistance is measured as the force (N) it takes to penetrate the ground, and is converted into J/cm. The resistance of the soil can be measured using a dynamic cone penetrometer, which quantifies the energy required to push a probe into the soil (Herrick and Jones, 2002). I assume that a more compacted soil is more difficult to penetrate, because more closely packed grains are harder to divide. Thus, a larger value of soil resistance is equivalent to greater compaction. Measuring infiltration rates and the soil properties described above allows me to predict water input into the Critical Zone of Gordon Gulch. 7 The Critical Zone ”We live at the dynamic interface between the solid Earth and its outer fluid envelopes. Extending from the outer vegetation canopy to the base of active groundwater, this interface was recently named the Critical Zone because it supports life and is increasingly impacted by human actions” (Anderson et al., 2008). The critical zone is where the fundamentals for life form; plants need soil, microbes live in the soil, and megafauna walks on the surface and thrives from plants and smaller animals which get their nutrients from the dynamic system of the critical zone (Fig. 5). To obtain a better understanding of this critical surface environment, the National Science Foundation funded three Critical Zone observatories, one in the southern Sierra Nevada in California, one in the Boulder Creek watershed in Colorado and one in the Susquehanna Shale Hills in Pennsylvania (Anderson et al., 2008). These observatories represent three different types of environments, so investigations into the mechanics of the critical zone can be as comprehensive as possible. The Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) includes three separate watersheds: an alpine environment (Green Lakes valley), an upland environment (Gordon Gulch), and Betasso watershed, which is at a lower elevation. Critical Zone processes include the chemical and physical weathering of bedrock, transformation of saprolite into regolith and soil formation, and interactions with precipitation, and with water that travels through the unsaturated and saturated zone. On a larger scale, the Critical Zone is impacted by solar radiation, which drives the hydrological cycle, and by rock uplift driven by tectonic and isostatic forces. 8 Figure 5. Cross-section of the Critical Zone, its materials and dominant processes (Anderson et al., 2007) The Critical Zone weathering model (Fig. 5) in contrast to a net depositional model, in which fresh rock is added to the top, minimizes net additions to the top, and relies mainly on the mechanical and chemical weathering of bedrock and its effective vertical movement until it reaches the surface as soil. There are some additions to the top from eolian sediments and organic matter from vegetation, which mixes in with the soil matter weathered from the bedrock. The Critical Zone can be seen as a feedthrough reactor, where solid materials enter at the lower boundary, gets crushed down to sediments of various sizes (Fig. 5), which are eroded and transported downslope from the surface (Anderson et al., 2008). The relationship between chemical and 9 physical weathering determines how the Critical Zone forms, and along with biological factors, determine the thickness of the regolith. Location and Topography Figure 6. Location of the study site; upper Gordon Gulch is shaded red (http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/us 2001/colorado ref 2001.jpg, http://www.boulder.doc.gov/gifs/boco_map.jpeg) My study area is the upper part of Gordon Gulch, a small catchment (2.74 km2, upper part: 0.93 km2) about 5 km northeast of the town of Nederland, Colorado (Fig. 6). The Gordon Gulch catchment is located at an elevation ranging from 2500 m to 2700 m, in the center of the Colorado Front Range. 10 Figure 7. Overview of the upper Gordon Gulch watershed looking to the northwest with Niwot Ridge in the background The Front Range includes foothills and mountains that stretch about 50 km from the Great Plains to the continental divide (Anderson et al. 2006). Gordon Gulch watershed is located between 2500 and -2700 m, in a rolling area of low relief, sometimes termed the sub-summit surface (Anderson et al., 2006). This rolling surface is located between the steep topography of the Flatirons in Boulder and the high peaks at the Continental Divide. The cross-section of the distinct topographic features of the Front Range (Fig. 8) depicts the results of glacial erosion near the 11 continental divide and the incising of canyons between the sub-summit surface and the Great Plains. Profile through Boulder Canyon Flat Irons Surface of low relief East West Figure 8. Topographic profile of the Front Range (Bubel, 2008) The surface of low relief includes deeply weathered remnants of a depositional and erosional surface that began forming after Eocene time (Birkeland et al., 2003). There is considerable uncertainty regarding the initial elevation of the low-relief surface and how it has evolved since Eocene time. There are two different hypotheses: the surface formed close to its present elevation or it formed at a lower elevation and was later uplifted to its present elevation (Birkeland et al., 2003). Whichever hypothesis is true, the surface of low relief is preserved mainly east of the glacial limit, which makes it an ideal area to study long-term weathering at rates of 510µm/yr and transport rates (Anderson et al., 2006). The late Pleistocene glacial limit (Madole et al., 1999) shows that glaciers headed in small cirques near the Continental Divide and flowed down narrow, U-shaped valleys, terminating as close as 3 km from Gordon Gulch (Fig. 9). 12 Continental Divide Surface of low relief Flat irons Figure 9. Extent of Pleistocene glaciations (extent of Gordon Gulch shown in red) Geologic Background The composition of the bedrock that underlies the Critical Zone affects weathering rate and the rate of regolith formation. It also helps control soil composition, which affects the infiltration rate. The last major tectonic event in the area of the Colorado Front Range was the Laramide Orogeny, which lasted from about 70 million years ago until about 55 million years ago; its major result was the uplift and erosion of the Rocky Mountains. Most of the bedrock underlying the Boulder Creek CZO consists of Precambrian rocks of igneous and metamorphic origin (Birkeland et al., 2003). The oldest metamorphic rocks, Precambrian silimanite gneiss and Precambrian cordierite gneiss formed more than 1.7 billion years ago (Birkeland et al., 2003). These Precambrian metamorphic rocks were intruded by the Boulder Creek Granodiorite 1.7 billion years ago and the Silver Plume Granite 1.4 billion years ago. Local Tertiary intrusives, mostly monzonites and quartz monzonites make up a minor part of the intrusive rocks in the area (Birkeland et al., 2003; Gable, 1980). 13 The Colorado Mineral Belt is related to the Tertiary intrusions and the hydrothermal alterations broadly associated with them. The Colorado geologic map shows that the upper Gordon Gulch catchment is underlain mainly by Precambrian gneisses, with some outcrops of Precambrian Silver Plume Granite, Precambrian quartz monzonite, dikes of Cretaceous quartz monzonite and Quaternary alluvium (Fig. 10). The Quaternary alluvium is located close to the stream, suggesting thicker deposits closer to the stream than on the hillslopes. Subsurface information that shows this relationship will be provided by geophysical data collected under the direction of Matthias Leopold (Technical University of Munich). Figure 10. Geologic map of Gordon Gulch (Gable, 1980) 14 Climate and vegetation In general, the climate of the Front Range can be characterized as a continental climate with wide seasonal variations in temperatures. Especially at upper elevations, the weather shows sudden and wide shifts on a daily basis. With the elevation rising up from the Great Plains towards the Continental Divide, there are marked changes in mean annual temperatures, mean annual precipitation, and a strong gradient in vegetation (Fig. 11). Figure 11. Elevation gradient of temperature, precipitation and vegetation for the Front Range (Birkeland et al., 2003, modified from Veblen and Lorenz, 1991) Weather records (Fig. 12) show that most of the annual rainfall comes during the summer months, assuming that most of the precipitation between October and April falls as snow. Summer showers and thunderstorms form mainly east of the Continental Divide fueled by moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the sub-tropical Atlantic. Intense precipitation often falls in zones only a few kilometers wide (Jarrett, 2007). 15 Figure 12. Weather station location compared to Gordon Gulch; upper Gordon Gulch is outlined in red Average precipitation at the C-1 weather station (Fig. 12) for May-September from 2001-2008 was 414 mm, while the May to September precipitation in 2008 was 469 mm, which indicates that the summer of 2008 was fairly wet, with a high peak of precipitation in August. Even though the summer of 2008 was fairly wet compared to the average annual summer precipitation (Fig. 13), the only surface water present in upper Gordon Gulch during my field research originated from a few springs and seeps. After thunderstorms, evidence of surface flow could be seen on the roads. Puddles of rainwater were present on the roads and trails until they evaporated to dryness. 16 250 Precipitation in mm 200 150 100 50 December October November September July 2008 August May June April March January February December October November July September 2007 August May June April March January February December October November September July August May 2006 June April March January February 0 Figure 13. Monthly precipitation records for C-1 from 2006-2008 (INSTAAR, 2009) 600 Precipitation in mm 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year of measurement Figure 14. Total annual precipitation amount for C-1, May through September 2001 2008 (INSTAAR, 2009) Flash floods occur when the amount of precipitation or snowmelt exceeds the ground infiltration rate and Hortonian overland flow occurs, which contributes to a rapid rise of stream discharge. When a rapid rise of stream discharge occurs at several places at once, the rise in each tributary may add to the total discharge in the main 17 channel, potentially producing downstream flooding. In areas mostly covered by impermeable surfaces, less precipitation is needed to cause a flash flood in a steep canyon such as the event that in 1976 led to the Big Thompson Flood (Jarrett, 2007). In an intense thunderstorm in the Colorado Front Range, most of the total rainfall may fall within 30 to 60 minutes, which makes it difficult to predict floods ahead of time (Arkell and Richards, 1986). Flash floods can also be caused by heavy snowmelt and research has found that for Colorado streams above 2300 m, snowmelt-produced floods predominate over rainfall produced floods (Payton and Brendecke, 1985). Rapid development of flash floods is why it is important to model conditions that would be needed to cause a flash flood. The causes of peak stream-flows in the Front Range vary with elevation. Below 2300 m, floods are mainly caused by rainfall runoff (Jarrett, 2007). Rain-onsnowmelt runoff is relatively rare in Colorado. From studies done on 70 natural-flow basins, rain-on-snowmelt runoff appears to be a minor contributor to most flooding (Payton and Brendecke, 1985; Jarrett, 2007). According to these studies, flooding in Gordon Gulch catchment, because of its elevation, is likely to be caused by heavy snow-melt. These studies were performed on large basins, however, so the small size of upper Gordon Gulch (0.93 km2) may make it more susceptible to flooding from a localized heavy thunderstorm. The Gordon Gulch catchment is mainly within the upper montane environment (Fig. 11), and can be divided into three distinct environments. These are the aspen (Populus tremuloides) groves near the stream, open meadows and the forested hillslopes. The hillsides are mostly covered by Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), some western Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and limited areas of Ponderosa pines 18 (Pinus ponderosa) and aspen. For the most part, the north facing slopes are more densely vegetated and the south facing slopes supports more open stands (Fig. 15). The difference between the vegetation on the north and the south facing hillslope stems from a few different factors, most importantly the difference in moisture between the two opposite facing hillsides, the difference in needs of water between Lodgepole pine and Ponderosa pines, and the previous use of the area. As Lodgepole pines require more water than competitive species (Ponderosa pine and Douglas fir), Lodgepole thrives in the mesic environment of the North-facing slopes compared to the xeric environment of the South-facing slopes (Lotan and Critchfield, 1990). As these areas were almost completely stripped of trees during the late 19th century and early 20th century, Lodgepole pines were able to take over the North facing slopes due to their early rapid growth, ability to survive in a wide variety of soil situations, cone serotiny, and tolerance of extremes of temperature (Lotan and Critchfield, 1990). Despite its intolerance for shade, the Lodgepole pine usually survives in dense vegetation up to 80-100 years before groves break up. With the present prevention of forest fires and the fact that in the absence of forest fires the Lodgepole pine is usually succeeded by more tolerant species, like Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir, vegetation will likely change in the future. Because the south-facing slopes are relatively dry the less dense vegetation is more likely a consequence of the individual trees’ competition for water rather than competition for sunlight. In a catchment similar to Gordon Gulch, Bennett et al. (1996) measured a density of 1050 trees/ha on the north facing slopes compared to 473 trees/ha on the south facing slopes. 19 Figure 15. North facing and south facing slope in the Gordon Gulch watershed, looking from south-facing to north-facing slope The present vegetation pattern of the Gordon Gulch watershed reflects landuse change related, in part, to arrival of European settlers in the area. Land-use change is discussed in the section below on local history and land use. The present vegetation in the Front Range is impacted by forest fires, and forest fires are relatively common in this area as a consequence of the climate of the western United States, which is characterized by multiyear droughts and periods of dry weather and episodic, intense rainstorms (Moody and Martin, 2001). The mean wildfire recurrence interval in ponderosa pine-dominated areas in the Front Range ranges from 20-50 years (Moody and Martin, 2001). The mean wildfire recurrence interval calculated by Moody and Martin (2001) can be applied to the south facing slopes of Gordon Gulch catchment, which are sparsely forested with Ponderosa pine. 20 Wildfires can highly impact the hydrology of a basin. The removal of the rainfall-intercepting canopy and of the soil-covering organic matter, intense drying of the soil and the formation of water-repellent soils can result in decreased infiltration rates (Cannon, 2003). More rainfall will directly impact the ground, because of the removed rainfall-intercepting canopy, along with the decreased infiltration rate a wildfire leads to significantly increased Hortonian overland flow and channel discharge (Cannon, 2003). The decrease in ground cohesion after a wildfire accelerates erosion and increases the danger of debris flows to occur as a response to heavy thunderstorms (Cannon, 2003). It is important to analyze impacts from wildfires on infiltration rates when considering the possible flood danger from an intense rainstorm. Because the vegetation in Gordon Gulch has been untouched by a severe forest fire in decades, I can only model the possible impact of a future wildfire on the hydrology of the Gordon Gulch catchment. Local history and land use The Colorado Front Range was important for humans long before the Gold Rush and its rich wildlife was harvested by Native Americans since the end of the last ice-age. Human interactions with the environment in the Front Range have been varied during the time of human settlement and have had significant impacts on wildlife, vegetation and the use of the area. All of the modifications made by humans through time impact the environment in different ways and have led to the environment we see today. The history of how land use evolved is important in understanding the present hydrology of the area and how previous use of the area has implications for present infiltration rates and possible downstream flooding. 21 The earliest inhabitants in the Front Range are believed to have arrived 11 00012 000 years B.P., determined from the dating of mammoth remains (Buccholtz, 1983 in Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). The earliest occurrence of dated projectile points is dated to 9000 years B.P (Benedict, 2005). These points are thought to record seasonal use of travel passages through the mountains. The first permanent settlers in the area are thought to be the Utes and the Shoshoni tribes at about 1000 years ago (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). These groups mostly occupied the higher elevations. Other groups arrived in the area in the late 18th century, amongst them the Arapahos, Comanche, Kiowa and Cheyenne (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). The first recorded arrival of a European was in 1859, but there were probably visits by Spaniards from the south and French traders from the east (Buccholtz, 1983 in Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). The finding of gold in Cherry Creek where miners founded the town Aurora, (now a neighborhood in Denver) in 1858 began a boom of settlers to the Front Range area. It is estimated that more than 100,000 people came to Colorado in the span of the first two years of the Gold Rush (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). With the discovery of gold at the mouth of Boulder Canyon, the Boulder City Town Company was formed in February 1859 (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). The town of Nederland, the closest town to Gordon Gulch, started growing in 1871 when Abel Breed, the owner of the Caribou silver mine, decided to make it the location for milling of the silver ore (Town of Nederland, 2008). Two years later the Caribou mine was sold to the Dutch mining company Nederland, hence the town name (Town of Nederland, 2008). However, ore grade at the Caribou silver mine soon declined, as did silver prices and left Nederland as a ghost town. At the turn of the century tungsten was found nearby and the Caribou mine was reopened (Town of Nederland, 2008). This second mining boom led to a rebirth of the settlement in 22 Nederland, which lasted until the mining of tungsten declined gradually after the end of World War II (Town of Nederland, 2008). At present, Nederland is a town with a mixed population, ranging from people who commute to Boulder to people seeking a peaceful life in the mountains of the Front Range. It is also a big tourist attraction during the summer time, as the starting point for hiking in the Indian Peaks area. With the early mining boom in the Colorado Mineral Belt, there came also a boom in the infrastructure of the area. Railroads were built to transport the mined ore to the larger settlements. The part of the railroad that influenced Gordon Gulch was named the Switzerland Railroad, which ran on a narrow ridge connecting Eldora to the main railroad to Boulder. But with the decline of mining and the introduction of trucking, the Switzerland Railroad was dismantled in 1919 (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991). Gordon Gulch catchment was not one of the heavily mined areas, but prospect pits can be found practically everywhere, showing how desperate prospectors were to make a big discovery. Despite the lack of ores, Gordon Gulch probably was heavily impacted by the mining boom as a consequence of the heavy demand for timber resources needed for fuel, mine timbers and town construction, which mostly stripped the montane areas of Boulder County of trees (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991) (Fig. 16 a and b). Today, the only logging that takes place in Gordon Gulch is patch-cutting and thinning for fire prevention purposes, and hill-slopes are covered by a variety of vegetation. 23 a b Figure 16. Frankenberger Point on the Switzerland Trail A: 1905 B: 1984 (Veblen and Lorenz, 1991) The fire patch cutting in Gordon Gulch impacts soil compaction, and possibly affects the infiltration rate, as more compacted soil generally is less permeable. Soil 24 compaction is a direct consequence of the weight of the logging machinery and this compaction may last for an unknown time span before the soil recovers to its natural state. The active logging area of summer 2008 covers 0.28 km2 of the total area of 2.74 km2 of Gordon Gulch, while it only covers 0.06 km2 of the area of 0.93 km2 of the upper Gordon Gulch catchment (Fig. 17). Figure 17. Extent of areas of fire prevention patch cutting in Gordon Gulch, area values are for the area of the fire cuts that are within the catchment boundaries The present use of the area is mostly for recreation, including hiking trails, biking trails and dirt-bike/ATV trails. Several 4-WD roads pass through the watershed. Human impacts have produced new flow pathways and probably have changed the natural compaction of the soil and the rate of infiltration. 25 This study: soils, infiltration and surface-water hydrology To be able to determine how water gets to the channel in Gordon Gulch, I measured the infiltration rate at 45 different sites in upper Gordon Gulch during my field research between July 12th and August 8th. The infiltration rate is defined as the rate at which water enters the soil (Dingman, 2002), and is affected by the rate of water input, the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the surface, degree of saturation, slope, soil composition and the physical and chemical properties of water (Dingman, 2002).. The different infiltration sites were categorized into different environments, where environment is defined by vegetation and position in the landscape. Field infiltration can be measured in several ways, including zero-tension meter, sprinkler-plot studies and ring infiltrometers. I chose to use a double-ring infiltrometer, which was what was available to me, and it was the most precise measuring equipment that made it possible for me to perform infiltration experiments with only two people. A sprinkler-plot study would be both more time consuming and would have required more water and more complicated measurements than using a double-ring infiltrometer. Using zero-tension meters the continuous attention needed with the ring infiltrometer is not necessary. Less water is needed for each measurement, which makes the zero-tension meter convenient for use in a semi-arid area. However, zero-tension meters may underestimate the infiltration rate in high permeability areas (Reynolds et al., 2000), like semi-arid basins in the Colorado Front Range, which made me decide on ring-infiltrometers. The double-ring infiltrometer is more accurate than the single-ring infiltrometer, because it minimizes lateral movement of water into the unsaturated soil (Fig. 18). However, there are other sources of errors such as leakage between the outer and the inner ring, which leads to an overestimation of the real infiltration rate. The 26 infiltration rate from ring- infiltrometers is also usually overestimated as it is very difficult to account for cracks and other channels in the surface below the infiltrometer. Ring infiltrometers have the advantage of averaging values over a large surface compared to a zero-tension meter. The double-ring infiltrometer I used in the field covers a surface area of 176.71 cm2. Figure 18. Sketch of the 2-D lateral movement of water from a single ring infiltrometer, due to capillary forces (Dingman, 2002) Two different methods of measurements are commonly used with the ringinfiltrometers: constant-head and falling-head. Numerical modeling suggests that constant-head measurements give an overestimate compared to falling-head measurements for coarser textured soils and falling-head measurements tend to underestimate the actual infiltration rate (Gregory et al., 2005). For my study it is probably better to have an underestimate of the infiltration rate; in practice where possible I used both constant and falling-head methods. The modeling of infiltration as a part of a rainfall-runoff model is challenging, because of the spatial variability in infiltration rates. Measured hydraulic conductivity 27 is often used to represent the infiltration rate over the entire study area (Meng et al., 2006). To be able to predict the impact of rainstorms in a catchment, peak discharge is often modeled using a simple rainfall-runoff model. For small watersheds, the rational runoff formula estimates the peak discharge that can be expected from a model rainfall intensity as: Qpk = uR*CR*ieff*Ap (Eq. 2) where Qpk is the peak discharge uR is a unit conversion factor CR is the runoff coefficient, which depends on watershed land use ieff is the rainfall intensity and Ap is the drainage area However, this model may not be sufficient in an environment like Gordon Gulch where materials, slopes and surface cover are heterogeneous. The rational runoff formula also implicitly assumes that the water from peak discharge flows over the ground surface, which may not be the case. My infiltration measurements from different environments of Gordon Gulch allowed me to generalize infiltration rates in the catchment into my modeling. By incorporating my measured infiltration rates into a GIS based rainfall-runoff model (ArcHydro) I was also able to test the effects of different intensity rainstorms more accurately than a model that estimates the infiltration rates based on the concept of a uniform soil (Meng et al., 2006). Because my study seeks to understand how water from precipitation moves through the soil and to the stream and how much rain that is needed to cause a flood in Gordon Gulch, I modeled rainfall rates predicted for the 5 year, 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year and the 200 year storm. Using these different input scenarios allows me to make discharge predictions during both normal and extreme conditions. One major 28 limitation with the rational runoff formula and the ArcHydro extension in ArcMap, is that the models assume peak flows in the channel arrive over the surface, ignoring flow in the shallow subsurface as a contributor to stream-flow. Thus, these two approaches likely underestimate actual peak discharge. In 1976, the Big Thompson flood destroyed over 300 houses and claimed more than 130 lives when as much as 305 mm of rain fell in a few hours near the canyon along Highway 34 east of Estes Park, Colorado (Jarrett, 2007). Big Thompson is similar to the Boulder Canyon, and storms of this magnitude are not uncommon in the Front Range area (Jarrett, 2007). It is important to consider the possible dangers of flash flooding from Gordon Gulch and adjacent catchments that empty into Boulder Creek. Thus, my research has practical aspects for evaluating downstream flow hazards, which may be useful to the nearby community. Infiltration rates and flood discharge depend on the properties of the Critical Zone. The rate of weathering is important to regolith production and for how much fluid gets into the regolith, where it is an important variable in determining rates of chemical weathering. However, this is a circular problem, considering that the composition of the soil may be important in determining the rate of infiltration, and that grain size reflects parent material and time, which determines the degree of weathering. For instance, soil-clay content is correlated, with the age of soil material (Fig. 19). 29 Figure 19. Relationship between clay content and soil age (Machette et al., 1976 in Birkeland et al., 2003) The data in Figure 18 are based on samples from the Colorado Piedmont near Boulder, that have weathered for less than two million years; soils in the mountains have many of the same properties in the B-horizon (Birkeland et al., 2003). The clay content of the soils in Gordon Gulch reflects both weathering and eolian inputs. The approximate age of the soil, along with the percentage clay for that specific age, can be used as an indicator for how long it takes the Critical Zone to produce a certain percentage of clay content in the soil, which can be used as the base for estimating a weathering rate. No previous studies have focused on the Gordon Gulch watershed, so I hope that my research can be used to help others working on the Critical Zone project to get 30 a better understanding of the hydrologic processes of the Gordon Gulch catchment and their relationship to soil texture and surfaces of low impermeability. 31 Chapter 2: METHODS Field Mapping To calculate the area of low permeability surfaces in the upper part of the Gordon Gulch catchment, I needed to map the spatial distribution of these features, which in my study area included roads, dirt-bike trails and rock outcrops. Using a Garmin Etrex and a Garmin Rino (when communication was needed), I hiked on every road and trail in the basin recording my position using the tracking function on the GPS. I uploaded my data into ArcMap guided by an orthophoto of the basin as a map base. The width of roads and trails were estimated from approximations in the field, where an average value was assigned based on my overall field observations. The procedure of mapping the distribution of bedrock outcrops was somewhat more challenging, because time limitations made it impossible to cover every square meter of the basin. To work around this problem I sampled the area using swath traverses spaced by approximately 200 m and oriented perpendicular to the main channel (Fig. 20). On each traverse I plotted a GPS point for every outcrop that I could see within a distance of ~40 m on each side of the traverse line. The total area covered by my swath traverses was 0.32 km2, measured using the measuring tool in ArcMap. The total area of upper Gordon Gulch is 0.93 km2, so I was able to sample about 35 percent of the catchment. 32 Figure 20. Swath traverses used for mapping outcrop distribution I categorized outcrop size into five categories based on the estimated length of the long axis of the outcrop: small (<5 m), medium (5 m to 15 m), large (16 m to 30 m), very large (>30 m) and “extra large” (both axes longer than 30m). I was able to measure extra large outcrops accurately by taking several waypoints around the edge of the outcrop, and connecting them into a polygon. The nominal error of the GPS units that I used was between 4 m and 10 m, depending on the vegetation cover. Sampling outcrops by swath traverses (Fig. 20), allowed me to estimate the distribution of outcrops in the entire area, using the outcrop density in the area covered by swath traverses. Because the distribution of outcrops in the study catchment is not closely related to slope, rock type or landscape position, I am 33 confident that my sample yields a realistic value for the total area covered by bedrock outcrops in upper Gordon Gulch. Figure 21. A typical “extra large” outcrop of biotite gneiss in Gordon Gulch (Evey Gannaway, is 1.8 m tall) Infiltration measurements I used my knowledge of the area from my mapping and the Gold Hill quadrangle to decide on possible locations for infiltration tests. My goal was to sample the different environments (Table 1) that were present in the basin in order to get a good representation of the possible local variation in infiltration rates (Fig. 22). The exact sample locations were determined in the field, and depended on local slope and the distribution of rocks in the top 10 cm of the soil. By choosing an area with limited 34 rocks in the top 10 cm of the soil, I was able to minimize “leakage” around the edge of the infiltrometer rings. From the correlation plots relating infiltration rate to environment and physical properties I can predict an average infiltration rate for each environment, which I can use to model runoff from different flow-paths in the catchment at different rainstorm intensities. Table 1. Environment and number of infiltration measurements Infiltration Test Distribution Environment #Samples Trail 3 Road 7 Meadow 5 Forest Soil 22 Open Hillslope 4 Ridge 4 Total 45 The most important soil factor that I need to quantify is infiltration rate. Water infiltration has a high local variation that stems from variability in soil properties. 35 Figure 22. Infiltration sites by environment; tributaries in blue and roads in black I tried to do as many infiltrations tests as possible in Gordon Gulch. In my infiltration experiments I used a double ring infiltrometer with an inner-ring diameter of 15 cm. To prepare a location for an infiltration measurement, I temporarily removed the soil organic material and most of the A horizon, and pushed the infiltrometer down to a depth of approximately 3 cm in the mineral soil (Fig. 23). At most sites the base of the infiltrometer was near the boundary between the A-horizon and the B-horizon. 36 Figure 23. Double ring infiltrometer, with a 15 cm diameter inner ring, prepared for an infiltration measurement For my infiltration experiments I used both steady-state and falling-head methods. For the steady-state measurements, I kept water-level steady at between 6 and 8 cm deep, depending on the local slope, and used a stopwatch to time how long it took to add 1000 cm3 of water. I measured these steady-state rates three times at each location, or until the rate of infiltration stabilized. After three tests or the stabilization of the infiltration rate was reached, I ran a falling-head experiment, where I recorded the time it took to lower the water-level each cm until it was dried out. To be able to carry out a water infiltration experiment during a dry period, I carried two six-gallon containers filled with water to the experimental sites. Except for a small spring that took 30 min to fill up both containers, I had to haul water from the Mountain Research Station, about a 25 minute round trip from Gordon Gulch. On average, 12 gallons of water were enough for 2.5 infiltration measurements. 37 Soil compaction measurements At each sample location I also tested soil compaction, using a dynamic cone penetrometer (Herrick and Jones, 2002), which had a 2 kg weight and a 40 cm drop height. I recorded the number of blows that it took the penetrometer tip to reach 5 cm, 10 cm and 15 cm below the ground surface. The KE for a 2 kg weight falling 40 cm is 7.84 Joules; using this constant value, my recorded number of blows and the distance traveled into the ground, using equation 3 (Herrick and Jones, 2002), I was able to calculate the resistance of the soil (Herrick and Jones, 2002), which reflects its degree of compaction. Rs =Ws/Pd (Eq. 3) Rs, is the soil resistance in Newtons Ws is the work done in Joules and Pd is the distance the penetrometer travels in the soil in meters I also measured compaction with the dynamic cone penetrometer in some sites affected by logging, but compaction is a factor with high local variation, and it may not be possible to calculate a reliable estimate of the difference in compaction from the untouched areas of the catchment. 38 Figure 24. Proper use of the dynamic cone penetrometer (demonstrated by Evey Gannaway) Soil sampling I collected small samples of the mineral soil at each infiltration-test site. These samples were collected below the O-horizon, and consisted mainly of A and small amounts of Bw horizon. Sample weights ranged from 0.3-0.7 kg. Samples were collected below the surface prepared for the infiltrometer, to an approximate depth of 10 cm. By collecting to a greater depth than the infiltrometer I was able to sample the physical properties of the upper part of material through which water infiltrates. Geophysical measurements Geophysical data collected by Matthias Leopold (Technical University of Munich), with help from the entire research team, allowed me to examine the subsurface of Gordon Gulch from a line parallel to the channel at one location. Professor Leopold used electrical resistivity techniques to determine the depth to bedrock and layering within the surficial materials, which helps me to extend my 39 analysis of basin hydrology. The resistivity technique consists of setting up a surveying line where electrodes are put into the ground, and each electrode pair acts as a transmitter/receiver combination in turn to collect data about material resistivity from all the electrodes. Experiments have been done on the electrical resistivity on different materials, and values determined from these experiments allow us to model the subsurface layering of the Critical Zone. Laboratory A detailed analysis of my soil samples, with a strong emphasis on grain-size analysis, is important in understanding the relationship between the physical characteristics of the soil and measured infiltration rate. Moisture content and loss on ignition (LOI) The moisture content in the soil samples was determined by heating approximately ten grams of the <2 mm fraction of each sample in a crucible in a 100˚C convection oven for at least 24 hours. During this procedure, I weighed the crucibles and the crucibles including the sample both before and after the heating to the nearest 0.01 g using an electronic top loading balance. These measurements made it possible for me to calculate the field moisture content using equation 4 (J. Racela, Williams College, 2008). % Η2Ο = ((wet-dry)/(wet-cru))*100% where wet = wet soil plus crucible, dry = dry soil plus crucible, and cru = the mass of the empty crucible 40 (Eq. 4) To calculate the loss-on-ignition (LOI), I took the dry samples from my moisture content calculations, and burned them in a 600˚C muffle furnace for six hours. The high temperature and oxygen from air ashes the samples, and the organic matter is removed in the form of gaseous CO2 and H2O. After the crucibles were taken out of the muffle furnace they were cooled in a desiccator. I weighed the samples before I calculated the percent LOI, using equation 5 ( J. Racela, Williams College, 2008). %LOI =( (dry-ash)/(dry-cru))*100% (Eq. 5) where ash = the mass of the ash and crucible Grain size analysis To find the sand, silt and clay weight percent of each sample I weighed the initial sample, before I sieved it through a sieve set consisting of a 2 mm sieve, 250 µm sieve, 125 µm sieve and 62.5 µm sieve Then I weighed the different size fractions and calculated the weight percent of each grain size class. I chose these particular sieves, so I could distinguish between the content of gravel, medium to coarse sand, fine sand and silt/clay. To determine the very fine sand, silt and clay size fractions, I analyzed my <125 µm fractions using a Beckman MultisizerTM 3 Coulter Counter (Fig. 25), which gives the weight percent for each grain-size. 41 Figure 25. Beckman Multisizer™ 3 Coulter Counter To prepare a sample for the Coulter Counter, I used 0.04±0.01 grams of sediment and mixed it with 5mL of a filtered 1.67 g/L Calgon solution in a 15mL testtube, using a small shaker table. After the sample soaked in the Calgon solution for a few hours, I sonicated the sample for 3 minutes, before I mixed it again using the shaker table to keep all of the sediment in suspension. The concentration chosen for the Calgon solution and the time of sonication was determined from the study of Chappell (1997). Than I used a calibrated pipette to measure 60 µL of the sediment mix and put it into a beaker of 200 mL filtered Calgon 1.67 g/L solution. I ran the Coulter Counter with a 140 µm aperture, 30 000 counts and used 50 size bins ranging from 3.9 µm to 125 µm to display the results. After a run through the Coulter Counter, the software produces a graph and a table of the distribution of grain sizes. I copied the table into Microsoft Excel and calculated the percent silt and clay (< 3.9 µm) in 42 the <125 µm fraction. Because of possible error when I extracted the sediment mix with the calibrated pipette, I ran each sample three times through the Coulter Counter in order to get a better representation of the weight percent of the different grain sizes. Soil sorting was calculated using the method of moments (Folk, 1961) to calculate the statistical parameters of the entire soil size distribution. σΦ = √(∑ [w(MΦ-D)2]/∑w (Eq.6) where σΦ = standard deviation, w = weight in grams MΦ = arithmetic mean D = Φ class midpoint The benefit of using this method compared to a graphical method is that every grain in the soil sample is taken into account, instead of getting my values from a graphical presentation of the grain-size distribution. The standard deviation of the sample in phi, represents the spread of grain sizes in the sample and can be used as a measurement of the sorting of the soil. Lower phi values means that the sample is more well sorted while a high phi values means that the sample is more poorly sorted. I used the classification of sorting in Folk (1961). Hydrologic calculations and models For modeling the peak discharges using the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro, rainfall intensities were needed along with measured infiltration rates to be able to model the basin environment under different conditions. 43 Rainfall Intensity To estimate the rainfall intensities and return periods for Gordon Gulch, I used the eight years of measured precipitation records available from the C-1 weather station (INSTAAR, Colorado University, Boulder) and the Sugarloaf weather station (Utah Climate Center, Utah State University, Logan) and compared these values to those available in the literature (Table 2). Table 2. Rainfall Intensities for different recurrence intervals (Payton and Brendecke, 1985; Miller et al., 1973). Values for C-1 and Sugarloaf were calculated using the Gumbel method of extreme value theory (Equation 7) One Hour Rainfall Intensity Recurrence Interval in years Sugarloaf mm C-1 mm Average mm C-1 Payton and Brendecke mm NOAA mm 5 24 21 22.5 19 25 10 29 25 27 23 30 25 36 30 33 27 38 50 41 34 37.5 N/A 43 100 46 38 42 33 48 200 51 41 46 N/A N/A 24-hour Rainfall Intensity Recurrence Interval in years Sugarloaf mm C-1 mm Average mm C-1 Payton and Brendecke mm NOAA mm 5 64 56 60 50 61 10 78 67 72.5 60 76 25 97 81 89 74 86 50 110 91 100.5 N/A 96 100 124 102 113 96 107 200 137 110 123.5 N/A N/A I only used precipitation intensity data for the months of June, July and August, the most important thunderstorm months. These months are representative of 90 % of the largest one-hour storms of the year in the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest deserts (Arkell and Richards, 1986). Because I used the annual series method, only the largest precipitation event was needed for each year; using this threemonth sample is representative of the largest annual precipitation intensities. I examined the one-hour rainfall intensity, because thunderstorms in the Colorado Front Range rarely stay over an area for more than one hour (Arkell and 44 Richards, 1986), and the highest quality rainfall intensity data available to me are in mm/hr. The average of the rainfall intensities at C-1 and Sugarloaf weather stations was used as a proxy for conditions at Gordon Gulch; I assume that the rainstorms occurring at these two weather stations also occur in Gordon Gulch. I used the largest precipitation event from each year, ranked them and calculated the return periods for each of these storms using the simplified Gumbel method of extreme value theory (Equation 7). T= (n+1)/m), (Eq. 7) Where T = recurrence interval in years n = number of years of record and m = rank of event Then I plotted these values on Gumbel paper, and used linear interpolation to estimate rainfall intensities for return periods up to 200 years (Table 2). Time of concentration The time of concentration was calculated by using the Papadakis and Kazan equation, which is derived for watersheds with areas less than 5 km2 (Loukas and Quick, 1996). Tc = 0.66L0.50n0.52Ss-0.31ie-0.38 Tc = time of concentration in min L = stream distance in feet Ss = Slope (dimensionless) Ie = rainfall intensity in in h-1 n = Manning’s roughness 45 (Εq. 8) Stream distance used was 1473 m (4382 feet), which is the distance along the main channel from the top of the watershed to the outlet. Slope was measured as the average slope along the stream, 0.08 m/m. The Manning’s roughness was set to 0.1, reflecting a stand of heavy timber with little undergrowth (Dingman, 2002). The rainfall intensities used for calculating the different time of concentration were the calculated values for the 5-year to the 200-year storm. Table 3. Calculated time of concentration for the upper Gordon Gulch watershed Recurrence Interval (yr) Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr) Tc* Papadakis and Kazan (min) 5 22.50 38.90 10 27.00 36.24 25 33.00 33.53 50 37.50 32.00 100 200 42.00 46.00 30.63 29.57 *Tc = Time of concentration The calculated time of concentration ranges from about 30 minutes for the most intense rainfall frequency to about 40 minutes for the least intense rainfall frequency (Table 3). Because of the range of the time of concentration going beyond thirty minutes and the available data sets, I used the one-hour rainfall intensity as my basis for the modeling of peak discharges. However, using the one-hour rainfall intensity to model the discharge does not reflect the fact that with continued rainfall the soil becomes more saturated and increases the hydraulic conductivity of the soil. Calculations of area of impermeable surfaces The total area covered by roads and trails in upper Gordon Gulch watershed, was calculated in ArcMap using the measuring tool to measure the total length of the 46 roads and trails that were mapped during the time of field research. Roads were measured to be on average approximately 4 m wide, while trails were on average approximately 1.5 m wide. Total area covered by rock outcrops was calculated using ArcMap to count the number of outcrops that are exposed in the upper part of the watershed. Very large and extra large outcrops were mapped as polygons and the area could be measured using the measuring tool in ArcMap. For the small, medium and large outcrops lengths were assumed to be the midpoint of outcrop classes: 2.5 m, 10 m and 22.5 m. The short axis was assumed to be 0.75 of the long axis. This assumption is based on estimates made in the field, and might not be entirely accurate for each of the outcrop classes, however the calculation of total area covered by outcrops is an estimate and I believe that this assumption give me a reasonable estimated value. Total area covered by the mapped outcrops was then converted into an approximation for the entire basin. Infiltration rates after fire The infiltration rates used for calculating peak discharge after a hypothetical forest fire in Gordon Gulch were calculated as 0.38 of the measured infiltration rates (Martin and Moody, 2001). The ratio of 0.38 is appropriate for granitic soils, probably a reasonable approximation for the high-grade metamorphic bedrock of Gordon Gulch. Modeling of peak discharge To model peak discharges from the upper Gordon Gulch watershed I used the Rational Runoff Formula and the ArcHydro extension in ArcMap 9.3. I used the rational runoff formula as a guideline to compare to my results from ArcHydro. Since 47 both the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro only considers surface flow in the calculated peak discharge, my values for calculated peak discharge assume no contribution from subsurface flow, which will lead to an underestimate of actual peak discharge. Peak discharges were calculated for several different scenarios (Table 4). Table 4. The various model scenarios. IDW is the natural infiltration rates and IDW fire is natural infiltration rates after a forest fire Rational Runoff Formula Coeff. Roads 1 No 0.1 No 0.2 No 0.1 0.2 ArcMap 9.3 Infiltration rate 0 IDW IDW IDW Fire Yes Yes Roads No No Yes No Post Fire No No No Yes Stream Buffer No No No No IDW IDW Yes Yes No No Yes, Road Infil. Rate Yes, 0.5 IDW Infil. Rate For my peak discharge calculations using the rational runoff formula, I used runoff coefficient values (Table 4) from Table 9-10 in Dingman (2002). Peak discharges from the rational runoff formula were modeled with three different runs of the land-use coefficient, 0.1 for forest, 0.2 for forest with a lesser infiltration rate and 1 for a completely impermeable surface. For roads and trails I used 0.825, which is within the boundaries of values set for roads (Dingman, 2002). When incorporating the impact of roads and trails on the peak discharge, I used the calculated total area of roads and trails in the upper Gordon Gulch watershed and added the peak discharge from that area to the peak discharge of the total remaining area. Rainfall intensities 48 were based on Table 2. I also calculated the peak discharge of an extreme event of 100 mm/hr to see what impact a storm of approximately the intensity of the event that produced the Big Thompson flood in 1976 (Jarrett, 2007) would have on my model values. All my calculations were done using square kilometers, rainfall intensities of millimeters per hour, and a unit conversion factor of 0.278, yielding results in cubic meters per second. The modeling in ArcMap using the ArcHydro extension allowed me to incorporate the infiltration measurements taken in the field in the upper Gordon Gulch watershed during July and August 2008. To incorporate these infiltration measurements into the modeling of discharge, I first had to set the boundaries of the drainage area, before functions in ArcHydro could derive a flow direction raster, flow accumulation raster and a raster showing the location of the main channel and tributaries, from the DEM. In addition to these rasters, a raster weighted with an infiltration rate per pixel was needed for a calculation of peak discharge. This raster was derived from a point distribution of the infiltration sites, using the IDW function in the Spatial Analyst extension. Another IDW was derived for post-fire infiltration rates. In order to incorporate the impact of the area of roads and trails in Gordon Gulch, I converted the road and trail polyline shapefile into a raster, which could be weighted with an infiltration rate using the raster calculator. An average infiltration rate was assigned to the entire area covered by roads, calculated from all the infiltration measurements from roads and trails. When the road and trail polyline shapefile was converted into a raster, the width of roads increased to six meters. The raster width of the roads and trails leads to a slight overestimate for the peak discharge calculation including the impact of roads and trails. 49 To incorporate both infiltration rates for the forested areas and the areas covered by roads and trails, the raster weighted with rainfall intensity values was subtracted from the infiltration rate raster for each of the two environment types. The two resulting rasters were then added together into a raster where each pixel is weighted with a value of excess runoff. The combined calculated raster was multiplied with the flow accumulation raster to add the influence of slope on runoff accumulation, before the peak discharge was calculated using the weighted flow accumulation in ArcHydro. This function use a flow direction raster and the weighted flow accumulation raster to add up the pixel values, and the pixel value that represents the peak discharge is the pixel at the stream outlet. Because the pixels are in square meters and the input rainfall intensity is in millimeters per hour, the calculated peak discharge value was divided by 1000 to convert to cubic meters per hour and by 3600 seconds to convert to cubic meters per second, the desired units of peak discharge. The impact of snowmelt was incorporated into the ArcHydro model, by making a buffer of the stream feature shapefile, which was converted to a raster file. Buffer was set to be 5 m on each side of the stream. Five meters is approximately five times the width of the channel, and this buffer is meant to represent the meadow area next to the stream that will be more saturated because of snowmelt, and therefore have a lower rate of infiltration. The raster file was than weighted with the appropriate value of infiltration using the raster. The resulting peak discharges from ArcHydro including the stream buffer show the minimum and maximum possible impact from a higher saturated zone surrounding the channel. 50 Chapter 3: RESULTS The first section of results presents data for physical properties of 25 vegetated soils and 8 “soils” collected from roads and trails and examines relations between these properties and soil infiltration rates. The second section shows probable rainfall intensities calculated from a variety of sources and the peak discharges modeled using the rainfall intensities and measured rates of infiltration. Soil Analysis The results of my grain-size analysis show that soil samples are sandy and relatively similar, and contain 2 to 13 percent silt and small amounts of clay (Appendix A). Most of these soils can be classified as sands, whereas a few are silty sands (Fig. 26). zS cS sZ sC C Z Figure 26. Sand, silt and clay ternary diagram (characterization after Folk, 1954), S, sand, s, sandy, Z, silt, z, silty, M, mud, m, muddy, C, clay, c, clayey 51 Soil textures from vegetated sites are similar to those collected from roads and trails. Soil physical properties (Table 5; Appendix A) do not show systematic variations, but LOI values are higher in vegetated soils and measured soil resistance is higher in areas of roads and trails (Table 4). My size results from the Coulter Counter showed that clay (<3.9 µm) consistently comprises <1% of the total weight percent of the sample (Fig. 26; Table 5), which is lower than predicted (Birkeland et al., 2003). Sieving was used down to coarse silt (<62.5 µm fraction), and the weight percent of silt in the soil samples comprises, on average, 6.91 % for vegetated soils and 4.55% for areas covered by roads and trails (Table 5). No large variations are present between vegetated soils and areas covered by roads and trails in grain sizes larger than silt size (Table 5). The source of error in the finest sizes may stem from clumping of grain aggregates into larger particles that do not go through the correct sieve. Table 5. Summary of soil properties Soil Property Sorting Resistance 0-15 cm in J/cm Moisture Content LOI Sand 2mm-250 µm Fine Sand 250-125 µm Very fine sand 125-62.5 µm Silt 62.5-3.9 µm Clay < 3.9 µm Vegetated Areas n = 25 Mean Std 1.36 0.17 18.26 8.09 4.87 2.46 7.30 3.49 68.51 5.79 19.63 4.32 3.97 2.15 6.91 2.76 0.19 0.08 52 Roads and Trails n = 8 Mean Std 1.30 0.12 47.43 26.32 4.47 2.47 2.66 1.69 72.90 5.48 19.04 5.41 2.92 2.41 4.55 1.65 0.16 0.07 Infiltration rates Field infiltration rates in Gordon Gulch forests and meadows are generally high and show substantial local variation, based on the different environments in the watershed, slope and soil properties (Fig. 27; Appendix B). When summarized, the average infiltration rates for the different watershed environments are similar, except for the very low infiltration rates measured on roads and trails. Using these results the watershed can be separated into two environments: roads+trails, and areas that are thinly to thickly vegetated and not heavily impacted by recent human activity. 600.00 500.00 Infiltration Rate mm/hr 400.00 n= 3 n= 3 300.00 n = 21 n= 3 200.00 100.00 n= 3 n= 7 0.00 Trail Road Forest Soil Open Area Hillslope Ridge Meadow Environment Figure 27. Average infiltration rates for different environments: error bars show one standard deviation 53 Infiltration rate and soil properties There is significant correlation between infiltration rates and some soil properties, particular measures of grain size, sorting, LOI and soil resistance (compaction). Most significant relationships between infiltration rates and soil properties depend on whether the roads and trails are included in the data set (Table 6). Table 6. R2 and p values for road/trail-infiltration rate correlations compared to infiltration correlations from vegetated sites. P-values of <0.05 represents the probability that the outcome supports the null hypothesis Vegetation, n = 22 2 r Infiltration/sorting Infiltration/<62.5um Infiltration/LOI Infiltration/compaction *it is significant to p = 0.05 0.499 0.33 0.23 0.10 p= <0.0001* 0.0025* 0.0228* 0.1249 Vegetation + roads, n = 32 r2 0.17 0.06 0.37 0.22 p= 0.0188* 0.156 0.0004* 0.0113* Soil sorting exerts little control on infiltration rates for the entire data set, but explains more than 50% of the variance in infiltration rates when the road values are excluded. However, LOI exerts significant control on the infiltration rates when roads/trails are included in the data set. Soil properties related to porosity and organic matter (LOI) are altered in the roads/trails whereas in this data set soil texture is not significantly different in roads compared to forested soils. In most analysis of internal soil property correlations below I exclude the roads/trails samples. 54 900 y = -816.9x + 1383.2 R² = 0.4993 Infiltration Rate in mm/hr 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Sorting in Φ Figure 28. Infiltration rate vs soil sorting. Higher Φ values represent more poorly sorted soil (Folk, 1961) Soil sorting is as defined in Folk (1961), where higher Φ values correspond to lower degree of sorting. The infiltration rates are dependent on soil sorting, and the relationship has an r2 value of 0.50, and is significant at a p-value <0.0001 (Table 6). Poor sorting yields a relatively low infiltration rate (Fig. 28), because with a more poorly sorted soil, small grains fill in pores, contributing to low porosity and often lower permeability. Infiltration rates are positively related to the amount of organic material in the soil (r2 = 0.23, p = 0.0228) (Fig. 29). The range of LOI values is large because soil samples were collected under similar conditions but some samples included more of the A-horizon than others. When the roads and trails are included LOI shows a significant relationship with infiltration rate (r2 = 0.37, p = 0.0004). 55 900 y = 28.33x + 43.672 R² = 0.2332 800 Infiltration rate in mm/hr 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 Weight Percent Figure 29. Infiltration rate vs amount of organic matter (LOI) in weight percent 900 y = -38.119x + 549.32 R² = 0.3339 800 700 Infiltration Rate in mm/hr 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 Weight Percent Figure 30. Infiltration rate vs soil weight % <62.5μm 56 10 12 14 16 The infiltration rate and the percent silt and clay (Fig. 30) are negatively correlated (r2 = 0.33, p =0.0025), as might be expected from soil sorting values. There is no significant relationship with the inclusion of the roads and trails (r2 = 0.06, p = 0.156). 900 y = -5.093x + 326.54 R² = 0.2226 800 Infiltration Rate in mm/hr 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 Soil Resistance in J/cm Figure 31. Infiltration rate vs soil resistance from 0 to -15 cm The dynamic cone penetrometer measurements of soil resistance in the top 15 cm of the soil (Table 4, Appendix A) show a negative relationship with infiltration rates (r2 = 0.22, p = 0.0113). Higher soil resistance leads to lower infiltration rates (Fig. 31). When roads and trails are excluded the relationship is not significant (r2 = 0.10, p = 0.1249). A large difference is seen in the range of resistance values for the vegetated area compared to areas of roads and trails (Fig. 32). 57 Infiltration Rate in mm/hr 1000 100 10 1 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 Soil Resistance 0-15cm in J/cm Figure 32. Soil resistance and infiltration rates for the different environments, roads and trails in blue, forest soil in red and hillslope in green Soil resistance values in fire prevention areas are on average lower than samples outside these areas, but the number of samples is small so the relationship is not significant (Fig. 33). 900 Infiltration rate in mm/hr 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 Soil Resistance in J/cm Figure 33. Infiltration and soil resistance, highlighting values from fire prevention areas (in red) 58 Rainfall intensity The results of my calculations and synthesis of the one hour and 24-hour rainfall intensity events from the 5-year to the 200-year storm for upper Gordon Gulch (Fig. 34), produces apparently reasonable values, despite the short length (8 years) of precipitation records; values matches up well with values from the NOAA Rainfall Intensity Atlas (Miller et al., 1973), from Payton and Brendecke(1985) (Table 2), and from four watersheds in Colorado at a similar elevation as the upper Gordon Gulch (Fig. 36). The small differences among the datasets come from differences in methodology, and coarseness of analysis. There is a lot of variability in precipitation patterns in the Colorado Front Range, which leaves some sources of uncertainty in any generalized precipitation map, like the NOAA Precipitation Atlas (Miller et al., 1973). Rainfall intensity in mm 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 10 100 Recurrence interval in years Figure 34. Calculated rainfall amounts and recurrence intervals averaged between C-1 and Sugarloaf (Table 2); one-hour rainfall amount is in blue and 24-hour rainfall amount is in red 59 250 Rainfall Iamount in mm 200 150 100 50 0 1 10 100 1000 Recurrence interval in years Figure 35. 24-hour rainfall amount for selected watersheds at different elevations in the Colorado Front Range. Sugarloaf, C-1 and NOAA are interpolated data sets, other values are measured data sets. Flatiron Reservoir (1678m) is in blue, Cabin Creek (3055m) is in red, Gross Reservoir (2430m) is in green, Evergreen (2130m) is in purple, Sugarloaf (2052m) is in light blue, C-1 (3017m) is in orange and NOAA estimated Gordon Gulch (2500-2700m) is in black Geophysics The geophysical data results from the upper Gordon Gulch show that on the hillslopes bedrock is generally 2 to 3 m below the surface and covered with colluvium. One resistivity line run in a meadow area near the channel shows colluvial and alluvial cover to be at a depth of 2-3 m, saprolite between 3 and -8m and bedrock below about 8 m (Fig. 36). From the subsurface data it is also possible to “see” a buried channel that is filled with colluvium. This increased depth approximately expands to about five meters on each side of the channel, providing a basis for my calculation of a stream buffer of thicker alluvium that could become saturated during snow-melt. 60 Figure 36. Interpreted subsurface layering along a resistivity line along the valley of upper Gordon Gulch (Matthias Leopold, Technical University of Munich) Calculated peak discharges, upper Gordon Gulch The modeled peak discharges for various test scenarios show a wide range of results (Table 7). From these results, it is evident that high rainfall intensities are needed to cause significant peak discharge in the vegetated areas and much of the peak discharge results from human alteration of the basin environment (Table 7). 61 Table 7. Predicted peak discharge (m3/sec) under different model scenarios Model results upper Gordon Gulch Recurrence interval mm/hr Impermeable 5 22.5 10 27 25 33 50 37.5 100 42 200 46 ArcHydro (m3 /sec) 4.13 4.96 6.06 6.89 7.71 8.45 3 5.82 6.98 8.53 9.70 10.86 11.89 0.22 0.33 0.48 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.63 0.76 0.92 1.05 1.18 1.29 1.21 1.45 1.77 2.01 2.25 2.46 3 0.58 0.70 0.85 0.97 1.09 1.19 3 1.16 1.40 1.71 1.94 2.17 2.38 0 0 0 0.00017 0.00265 0.0139 0.04313 0.07513 0.114 0.153 0.365 0.224 0.552 0.333 0.800 0.484 0.987 0.597 1.174 0.712 1.341 0.815 RRF* (m /sec) Infiltration with roads ArcHydro Infil with roads (m3 /sec) 3 RRF* 0.1 Roads, Trails (m /sec) 3 RRF* 0.2 Roads, trails (m /sec) No roads RRF* coeff. 0.1 (m /sec) RRF* coeff. 0.2 (m /sec) ArcHydro prefire (m3/sec) ArcHydro after fire (m3 /sec) Buffer ArcHydro with road impact, stream buffer road infilrate ArcHydro with road impact, stream buffer, 0.5 infilrate *RRF-Rational Runoff Formula 62 0.00056 0.001123 Chapter 4: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The results show that infiltration rates are mainly controlled by a few factors; soil sorting; LOI, soil composition and soil resistance. These factors each influence infiltration rates by different mechanisms. Peak discharges reflect an area’s infiltration rate, which means that soil physical factors are directly related to a basin’s peak discharge. My model results reflect control by infiltration rates and model scenarios, including increased areas of low infiltration rates show a significant increase in modeled peak discharge. Model results are consistent with unit peak discharge values from similar basins in the Front Range. Model Limitations Both the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro models have limitations that cause uncertainties in the modeled values of peak discharge. The main limitation of the rational runoff formula is the runoff coefficient, which assumes a homogenous infiltration rate. The basin can be divided into sections where different runoff coefficients are assigned to each area. However, as results from the impact of roads and trails show, there is a large discrepancy in discharge estimates between the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro. Because the runoff coefficient for the rational runoff formula “produces” runoff from soil under any rainfall intensity, the fraction of road area to the total area is linearly related to peak discharge; a significant proportion of roads and trails is needed to exceed the peak discharge contribution from the natural environment. In ArcHydro there is no runoff of significance, except from roads and trails, before the rainfall intensity surpasses the lowest infiltration rate of 33.2 mm/hr in the natural environment, which is equivalent to the 50-year storm. 63 The ArcHydro model has some definite limitations. Modeled results for peak discharges are only for the total peak discharge that would occur at the end of a onehour storm of specific rainfall intensity; the model does not show the development of peak discharge with time during the rainstorm. I also assumed that pixels which showed a negative value when the infiltration rate of each pixel was subtracted from the infiltration value, were zero. In reality some of the runoff from an area of low infiltration might infiltrate in a nearby area of high infiltration on its way to the main water-pathways of the basin. This assumption could cause a possible over estimate of peak-discharge values. The assumption of no water in the channel before the precipitation event and the failure to model contribution to peak discharge from sub-surface flow may lead to a significant underestimate of peak discharge generated by ArcHydro. The additional peak discharge added by water in the channel would be especially important in considering the impact of a subsequent precipitation event. However as this scenario was not modeled and field observations indicates that there is no channel flow except following a precipitation event, the impact of additional channel flow is most likely negligible under the specified model conditions in my experiment. The possible contribution from subsurface flow is unknown because ArcHydro has no groundwater component, but from model results on peak discharges for an impermeable basin which show the amount of water that is introduced to the hydrologic system during a precipitation event, I expect this contribution to be of significant size. The impact of the area covered by the channel and the fire-suppression areas were not incorporated into the model and the omission of these factors lead to a possible underestimate of the calculated peak discharge values. The amount of water 64 flow through the sub-surface that contributes to peak discharge will also lead to an increase in peak discharges from the calculated values. The width of roads and trails of six meters that was used in ArcMap leads to an overestimation of the actual area covered by roads and trails and cause an overestimation of the calculated impact of roads and trails on peak discharge; I measured roads as 4.5 m wide and trails as 1.5 m wide. Another source of overestimation comes from the use of one-hour rainfall intensities. If the two-hour rainfall intensity had been used, the rain would fall at a lower rate, decreasing the peak discharge. The incorporation of these sources of uncertainties into the modeling would bring the modeling closer to the natural conditions and give a better representation of the peak discharges than I was able to. However, representative data for these variables has to be measured in the field to make such an expansion possible. Factors controlling infiltration rates Soils in the upper Gordon Gulch watershed consist mostly of sand-sized grains, with some silt and minor clay (Table 4). Comparing the percentage clay content with the age/clay content relationship of Birkeland (2003) suggests that soil age is <5000 years (Fig. 19). Research about soil age in the Colorado Front Range suggests that most soil located in the surface of low relief should have an age >100 k yr (Birkeland, 2003). On average, soils of this age have between 6- to 10 percent clay content (Birkeland, 2003). The soil survey report from the NRCS also suggests a clay content of 5-15 percent (NRCS, 2009). These discrepancies indicate that surface soils in Gordon Gulch are younger than predicted or that the low amounts of clay are an artifact of the methodology used in my Coulter Counter analysis of the soil samples. 65 Variations in the amount of silt and clay act as a control on infiltration rates (Table 4) for soils in the vegetated area. The relationship is significant at p <0.05, where silt concentration has an inverse relationship with infiltration rates, and higher silt/clay content yields lower infiltration rates. This apparent relationship is as expected, since I would predict that smaller grain sizes like silt are likely to fill in pore space, thereby decreasing infiltration. The silt/clay infiltration rate relationship might be artificially high, since coarse silt grains have a tendency to be present in the soil as sand sized aggregates, which are highly permeable. The amount of soil aggregates present is not reflected in my soil analysis, because these possible aggregates were crushed during sieving to get a realistic representation of actual silt and clay content. When all the samples are included, no significant relationship is seen, indicating that the amount of silt and clay in roads and trails does not control of infiltration rates. Grain-size sorting helps to control infiltration rates for the vegetated soils of upper Gordon Gulch watershed (Fig. 28); the degree of sorting has phi values between 0.9 and 1.6, moderately sorted to poorly sorted (Folk, 1961). Sorting is closely related to the amount of silt in the soil. Poor sorting yields a relatively low infiltration rate (Fig. 28), because with a more poorly sorted soil, small grains may fill pores, contributing to low porosity and often low permeability. Because of the uncertainty in my clay results, there is some uncertainty about my results for soil sorting. However, this uncertainty would not change the relationship because higher clay content in the soils with high total silt and clay would make the poorly sorted soils even more poorly sorted. Despite sampling that locally included different proportions of the A horizon, I am confident that the amount of organic matter in the soil is one of the factors that control infiltration rates in the upper Gordon Gulch watershed. LOI measures the 66 amount of organic matter in the soil and is closely related to the amount of carbon in the soil, providing an indirect measure of porosity. My results show that infiltration and organic content in the soils are positively correlated (Fig. 29), with r2 = 0.23 and p = 0.02 for the vegetated samples and r2 = 0.37 and p = 0.0004 for the entire data set. Organic matter has a higher water-holding capacity than mineral grains, because organic matter absorbs water like a sponge, whereas mineral soils holds the water in pore space, or attached to clays. The low density of organic matter decreases the bulk density of the soil and decreased density is associated with increased aggregation, which produces more pore space (Franzluebbers, 2002). Vegetation and organic matter in soil O and A horizons also protect against compaction by raindrop impact, and therefore maintain water infiltration and decrease the possibility of runoff. In vegetated areas the near surface soil consists of mostly organic material from plant decay and since the upper Gordon Gulch watershed is almost entirely covered by sparse to moderately thick vegetation, relatively high infiltration rates are consistent with the sandy soils and abundance of organic matter. My measurements did not include organic matter in the soil “O” layer, where infiltration sometimes can be affected by hydrophobic characteristics. Soils coated by these water repellent materials may have a lesser infiltration rate, causing the possibility for more surface flow (Orfanus, 2008) than would be predicted by infiltration measurements in the mineral soil. Water repellent soils may also cause preferential flow, potentially producing overland flow and causing erosion (Orfanus, 2008). In upper Gordon Gulch, needles from Lodgepole pines form the surface in many areas and my field observations suggest that pine needle layers show some hydrophobic characteristics. When water was poured onto the layer, it channeled the 67 water and infiltrated into uncovered soil nearby or the water eventually seeped through the layer of pine needles and infiltrated into the ground. Thus, my field observations suggest that the layer of pine needles was not sufficient to lead to a significant retardation of infiltration rates. Soil compaction or resistance measured by the penetrometer which quantifies soil’s ability to resist penetration, is an important control on infiltration rates (Herrick and Jones, 2002) and shows an inverse relationship for the entire data set; r2 = 0.22 and p = 0.0113. This relationship is not significant when only the vegetated sites are used in the calculation. Possible sources of error in my soil resistance data could come from overestimating the resistance of the soil when the dynamic cone penetrometer had to shoulder aside large rocks and pebbles in the subsurface. Because penetrometer measurements were made by hand, it was fairly easy to notice when the tip of the penetrometer hit a rock, and if this occurred the measurement was aborted and started again a few cm away. Error could also stem from changes in soil moisture during the time of field measurements, because research shows that increased soil moisture increases the number of blows required to reach a certain depth (GRI report, 2005). Because of varying weather conditions during my time in the field, including rainstorms, I did not include my soil moisture data in most analyses. Soil moisture ranged from 2 to 11 % in the soil samples and it is possible that the soil resistance measurements could have been altered by the varying soil moisture. Increased soil compaction breaks up aggregates of silt and organic matter and these fine grains fill in pore space between larger grains and decreases infiltration rate. Research shows that the degree of compaction is higher in soils containing silt and clay (GRI report, 2005). The degree of compaction is significantly greater on the roads and trails of Gordon Gulch (Fig. 32), and is reflected in the low infiltration rates 68 for these areas. These differences are quantified by the relationship between soil resistance and infiltration rates, and from these results it is evident that soil resistance is the main control on infiltration rates in roads and trails, along with the amount of organic matter. It seems likely that the extreme compaction of the roads and trails removes the effect that a difference in sorting and soil composition would have on infiltration rates; soil is so compacted that the pore space is filled and the variation in these soil properties is not significant. The large difference in soil resistance between roads and trails and the vegetated areas can be attributed to the removal of the organic-rich soil and compaction done by vehicles on the roads and hikers, ATV’s and bikes on the trails and demonstrates the large impact that human activity has on infiltration rates by altering the natural environment. Since heavy machinery compacts the ground during fire prevention logging, I would expect to see a difference in soil resistance and potentially lower infiltration rates in these areas of upper Gordon Gulch. A slight trend can be seen where sample sites in the fire prevention area on average have lower infiltration rates and higher soil compaction (Fig. 33). Because of the small number of sample sites in the fire prevention area, I am not confident in these results; sample values in the fire prevention area could be a result of the overall local variation seen across the upper Gordon Gulch watershed. Slope is thought to control infiltration rates, but there is still dispute if the relationship is positive or negative. The relationship seems to be dependent on soil composition and surface characteristics, in addition to the slope. My results show no significant correlation between local slope (0 to 12°) and infiltration rate. Based on my results and the lack of conclusive evidence from other research (Bradford and Huang, 1992, Fox et.al., 1997), I conclude that slope up to 12° is not an important controlling 69 factor on the infiltration rates in the upper Gordon Gulch Catchment. However, steeper slopes will have an impact on how fast water gets to channels and therefore will have an impact on the response time of peak discharge after a precipitation event. Uncertainty in measured infiltration rates In addition to all the measured soil properties that are controlling infiltration rates in the upper Gordon Gulch watershed, there are unmeasured factors that may affect the rate of water infiltration. These include macropores, pebbles and rocks in the immediate subsurface. Tree roots or openings where roots have rotted out can allow water to flow by opening up pore space; the same is true for the soil covering pebbles and rocks as well. There may also be places where the soil immediately below the surface has been hollowed out by burrowing animals or organisms or local cracks and cavities. These factors are difficult to account for when doing infiltration rate measurements, and may have affected measured infiltration rates. If one or more of these conditions occur beneath an infiltration site, the measured infiltration rate may be unusually high. However, the large diameter of the double ring infiltrometer is likely to incorporate some of the effects that these natural pores have on infiltration. The average value of the infiltration rates measured in upper Gordon Gulch (Fig. 27) matches well with the rates that are estimated by the NRCS for the soil-types (Bullwark and Catamount families) that are present in upper Gordon Gulch, ranging from 50 to 150 mm/hr (NSRC, 2009). To be able to accurately represent the local infiltration rates in a model, ideally a large sample pool is necessary. In comparison to models where there were no field measurements and infiltration rates were modeled from soil property data from soil 70 surveys, I believe that my data yield a reasonable representation of the natural environment in upper Gordon Gulch watershed. My infiltration measurements were all taken in July and August, and they reflect soil conditions during the summer months. Controls on infiltration rates may change seasonally and there can be large changes in the infiltration rates on an annual scale, which could lead to more overland flow. The main soil property that changes with seasons is that the ground may be frozen in the winter, and studies have shown that, as expected, soil infiltration rate decreases significantly during the winter months (Diamond and Shanley, 2003). However, because upper Gordon Gulch watershed is covered by snow during the winter, the effects of the frozen ground are not likely important. The only seasonal effect that is likely to see in upper Gordon Gulch is the impact that a change in the water-table during the year will have on peak discharges. Calculated peak discharges, upper Gordon Gulch Peak discharges were modeled using two different methods, the rational runoff formula and ArcHydro. The results from the two model approaches show both similarities and differences in the peak discharge values depending on the model scenario. These discrepancies in the results reflect the different nature of the two models. Before I was able to do the actual peak discharge modeling, I defined a basin and, using the ArcHydro extension I derived a flow direction map for the upper Gordon Gulch (Fig. 37). The flow direction map shows the direct flow paths that water would take to the channel without any obstacles, like vegetation and rock outcrops. In the modeling of peak discharge, a direct downslope flow path is assumed for the basin. 71 Figure 37. Flow directions in upper Gordon Gulch In addition to the flow direction raster, I derived an overall map of generalized infiltration rates using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) algorithm, allowing me to model peak discharges (Fig. 38). The IDW averages the different infiltration rates at each site, and an infiltration rate is assigned to each pixel in the raster. 72 Figure 38. Infiltration rate distribution (IDW) in upper Gordon Gulch As an initial check on model performance, I found that modeled results for peak discharges from an impermeable basin are similar from both ArcHydro and the rational runoff formula (Table 9). These calculated values suggested that ArcHydro produced reasonable results, where the rational runoff formula was used simply as a reference point. Because these results matched up well, I am confident that the methodology used in ArcHydro for modeling peak discharges is internally consistent. For a completely undeveloped basin the two modeling techniques yield quite different results (Fig. 39), where no runoff is generated from ArcHydro until the 50year storm. This is because the low permeability surface of the channel was not incorporated into ArcHydro, while runoff is generated from the rational runoff formula under all modeled rainfall intensities. The modeled values for an undeveloped basin were used as comparison to the peak discharges that would be generated after a forest fire and to measure the impact of impermeable surfaces. 73 Forest fires may significantly decreases infiltration rates and may lead to a large increase in peak discharge (Fig. 39). It would lead to an increase during the 200year storm from 0.001 m3/sec to 0.15 m3/sec. This model increase in peak discharge shows that the combination of forest fires and intense precipitation can cause a significant increase in potential flood danger in mountainous basins. The results on the impact of forest fires are consistent with other studies done on the impact of forest fires and peak discharges (Martin and Moody, 2001). 2 Arcmap Road Impact, Stream Buffer Road Infiltration rate RRF Coeff. 0.1 with Road Impact 1.8 RRF coeff. 0.1 1.6 Arcmap Road Impact, Stream Buffer 0.5 Original Infiltration Rate Arcmap with road impact 1.4 Peak Discharge in m3/sec Arcmap Postfire No roads Arcmap Prefire No roads 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 22.5 10 27 33 37 100 42 46 Figure 39. Modeled peak discharges under different scenarios, x-axis shows recurrence intervals in years and mm/hr for each data point Both model techniques give similar peak discharge results when infiltration rates and road/trail impacts are incorporated (Table 9; Fig. 39). Despite these similar results, the percentage of total peak discharge that is contributed to by roads and trails shows a large discrepancy between the two methods. Using the rational runoff 74 formula, contributions from the roads and trails only accounts for 10%, while in using ArcHydro they account for close to 100% (Fig. 39). During snow melt in the spring, meltwater will infiltrate into the ground and potentially saturate the soil, leaving less unfilled pore space. The impact of snow-melt was modeled using a 5 m buffer of more saturated soil around the stream. My calculated peak discharges, including a 5 m buffer around the channel where a higher degree of saturation was assumed because of snowmelt, ranged from 0.22 m3/sec to 1.34 m3/sec (Table 9) (Fig. 39). For the 200 year storm this yields a 67.5% increase of the peak discharge value calculated without snow melt impact. Because rain-on-snow events are somewhat unlikely at these elevations (Payton and Brendecke, 1986) this scenario does not represent an immediate flood danger. However if an extensive zone of saturated soil near the channel could be a remnant from a previous precipitation event or late snowmelt, this scenario can be used to predict the effect of a subsequent precipitation event. However, this approach does not provide a precise representation for the processes of snowmelt and their impact on peak discharge, but it was the most accurate way to model snow-melt runoff in ArcHydro. The results of peak discharges from modeling in ArcHydro are consistent with values of unit discharge per square kilometer calculated for the nearby Colorado catchments Spring Creek (1880m) (Fig. 40), Bear Creek (2157m), Bobtail Creek (3179m), and Michigan River (3166m) (Fig. 41). The comparison with these four watersheds show that the modeled results are within the range of unit peak discharges for watersheds at similar elevations and I am confident that these peak discharges are a relatively good prediction of what can be expected after rainstorms in Gordon Gulch. These catchments are located within elevations where peak discharges range from those caused only by thunderstorms to pure snowmelt. 75 Rainfall intensity used in the research by Moody and Martin (2001) was for storm durations of 30 minutes. However, as approximately 0.80 of the one-hour rainfall may occur in the first 30 minutes (Arkell and Richards, 1986), my calculated peak discharges at 30-minute rainfall intensity would have been slightly lower, but the value of mm/hr would also have been slightly lower. These two factors would shift the data points down and to the left, and my values would still match closely with the curves of average peak discharge measured by Moody and Martin (2001). Figure 40. Comparison between values of unit peak discharge in Spring Creek, Colorado, with upper Gordon Gulch, Colorado. ArcHydro model values incorporating roads and trails are shown in red, ArcHydro model values incorporating a saturated stream buffer in addition to roads and trails are in blue and data points representing different years of measured discharge in Spring Creek are shown in black (Moody and Martin, 2001) 76 0.90 Peak Discharge m 3 /sec/km 2 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 1.00 10.00 100.00 Return Periods Years 1000.00 Fig 41. Measured peak discharge for three comparable Front Range basins plus Gordon Gulch. Bobtail Creek is in blue, Bear Creek is in red, Michigan Creek is in green and upper Gordon Gulch is in purple A gaging station will be installed at the bottom of the upper Gordon Gulch this year, and the results after a rainstorm can then be directly compared to my model results. Human impact and impact of rock outcrops on basin hydrology Impervious areas and human alteration of the Gordon Gulch environment lead to a significant decrease of infiltration rates and increased peak discharge caused by the roads and trails, fire preventative logging and some contribution from rock outcrops in upper Gordon Gulch. Roads and trails cover at least 1.15% of the 0.93km2 upper Gordon Gulch, the area of fire-preventative logging work covers 6.45% of the total area and rock outcrops cover 6%. Infiltration rates for roads and trails are, on average, 10 percent of the average infiltration rates for natural environments (Fig. 27); 77 infiltration rates in the fire-preventative logging areas are on average lower than the average infiltration rate for the vegetated areas and rock outcrops are assumed to be impermeable. Despite the small total area covered by roads and trails, this close-toimpervious area has a large effect on the modeled peak discharge. Results from the rational runoff formula show a contribution from roads and trails to peak discharge that is ten times larger than its percentage area (10% of peak discharge, 1% of total area), while the results from ArcHydro show the contribution to be close to 100% of the total modeled peak discharge for rainfall intensities up to the 200 year storm (Fig. 39). A rainfall intensity of >100 mm/hr is needed to cause a significant contribution to total peak discharge from the natural environment; however most of the peak discharge would still accumulate from the roads and trails. The impact of the logged areas was not modeled as a separate scenario, because of a lack of infiltration measurements in the impacted area. However, average compaction is higher and the average infiltration rates are lower inside the logging area than outside (Fig. 33), which corresponds with the measured inverse relationship between soil compaction and infiltration rates (Fig. 31). Despite the lack of direct measurements, it is reasonable to assume that the logging area would contribute a higher percentage of total peak discharge than the untouched natural environment, as a direct function of the lower measured infiltration rates. Logged areas also had temporary roads and skid trails that were not included in my roads and trails measurements. In contrast to the roads and trails, the impact of logging areas may be over a shorter time-span, and these areas will eventually recover into their natural state if they are not converted into permanent roads or trails. From the modeled peak discharge results from ArcHydro it is evident that human alteration severely changes 78 the hydrology of a basin, and that human development could cause a potential flood threat in mountainous watersheds where intense thunderstorms occur frequently. Rock outcrops are an integral part of the basin environment in upper Gordon Gulch, accounting for as much as 6% of the total area (0.057 km2 of 0.93 km2). As rock outcrops have an impermeable surface and cover an area that is six times larger than what is covered by the roads and trails, it seems that the impact on peak discharge would be significant. Assuming that the entire surface of rock outcrops would yield runoff flowing directly into the channel contributes approximately 35% of the total peak discharge, as modeled by the rational runoff formula. As shown above, the rational runoff formula strongly underestimates the impact of roads. Thus, I assume that there will be an underestimation of the impact of rock outcrops as well. However, little research has been done on the contribution of runoff from small outcrops towards peak discharge. The outcrops in upper Gordon Gulch are scattered all across the basin and are surrounded by soils with high infiltration rates, so no runoff from outcrops is likely to flow directly into the channel. Rainfall on the rock outcrops will most likely infiltrate into these soils and not contribute to peak discharge. The rock outcrops in upper Gordon Gulch were also observed to have small surrounding depressions, where some of the runoff will flow directly into the subsurface, and decrease the impact of runoff on the surrounding soil. When outcrops are located nearby roads and trails, part of the runoff from the outcrops may contribute to peak discharge via these water pathways. From observations of the outcrop locations in the field, contribution by this process will most likely not have a significant impact on peak discharge. 79 Flood danger Gordon Gulch is one of numerous tributaries to Boulder Creek and the peak discharge of Gordon Gulch and these other tributaries under different conditions are important in considering the possible flood danger from Boulder Creek. The average peak discharge of Boulder Creek from 1987 to 2008 was 25.06m3/sec (USGS RealTime Water Data for Colorado, 2009). Comparing the calculated peak discharge from the 0.93 km2 upper Gordon Gulch, which ranged from 0.20m3/sec for the 5 year storm to 0.80m3/sec for the 200-year storm, shows that the study catchment would cause a negligible increase of peak discharge even for the 200 year storm event. However, there are numerous small tributaries like upper Gordon Gulch that contribute to the peak discharge of Boulder Creek, and the combined peak discharges from all of these tributaries during the 100-year storm could cause a severe flood danger for Boulder. The high intensity thunderstorms are local, covering a few tens of km2 at high elevations (Jarrett, 2007), and rarely affect the entire drainage basin for Boulder Creek at once; hence an unusual storm both regarding rainfall intensity and the area affected is needed to cause severe flooding in Boulder Creek. An event like the one described above, led to the Big Thompson Flood in 1976 (Jarrett, 2007) and the 283 m3 s-1 Boulder Creek Flood in 1894 (Fig. 42) (BASIN, 2009), the occurrences of such events show that research evaluating possible flood dangers is important. 80 Figure 42. Photo near 7th Street in Boulder looking east during the 1894 flood (BASIN, 2009) 81 Conclusions and suggestions for future work The infiltration rate measurements that were taken in upper Gordon Gulch show a large local variation in infiltration rates, and these infiltration rates are controlled by various soil properties. From my analysis of soil samples collected in upper Gordon Gulch and soil resistance experiments using a dynamic cone penetrometer, the most important soil properties that influence infiltration rates are soil sorting, silt and clay content, soil compaction and the amount of organic content. Reflecting the clear distinction between human altered environments, like roads and trails, and the natural environment, the soil properties that control infiltration rates somewhat differ between these two environment types. The strongest controls on the infiltration rate in the natural environment are soil sorting, r2 is 0.5, amount silt and clay, r2 is 0.33, LOI, r2 is 0.23 and soil resistance, r2 is 0.22. More poorly sorted soil yields lower infiltration rates, more silt and clay yields lower infiltration rates, higher organic content yields a higher infiltration rate and greater soil resistance yields lower infiltration rates. Rate of infiltration on roads and trails are mostly controlled by soil resistance and amount of organic content, r2 is 0.37. Soil resistance values for the measurements on roads and trails are on average more than twice as great as the values from the natural environment, combined with infiltration rates that are shown to be on average 10% of infiltration rates from the vegetated environment, it is evident that the roads and trails can be considered as a distinct human altered environment. The amount of organic content is 1/3 the amount of that in the vegetated areas, which confirms the relationship documented between LOI and infiltration rates. The results for the modeled peak discharges clearly show the consequences of different environmental impacts on upper Gordon Gulch, most importantly, human 82 alteration resulting in an increased area of impermeable surfaces, forest fires and the impact of a saturated zone buffering the stream-channel. The impact of two consecutive high intensity thunderstorms was not modeled, but as my modeling shows, peak discharge is a direct function of infiltration rates. In such a scenario, since the soil would be somewhat saturated from the first storm, less water would be able to infiltrate into the soil, which would lead to more runoff from a second storm of equal rainfall intensity. Reflecting the small drainage area of upper Gordon Gulch, the modeled peak discharges are just a small fraction of the measured peak discharges of Boulder Creek, and stream flow from upper Gordon Gulch alone does not cause any immediate flood danger in Boulder Canyon. However, as there are numerous watersheds like upper Gordon Gulch in the drainage area of Boulder Creek, the effect of a number of large thunderstorms at once could cause possible flood danger. The natural example would be a precipitation event like the one that caused the Big Thompson Flood in 1976. Future work includes an expansion of infiltration measurements and soil analysis, to the entirety of the Gordon Gulch watershed. An expansion of model parameters is also an important aspect of future research. This will increase the accuracy of modeled peak discharges if sub-surface flow contributing to peak discharge can be estimated fairly accurately. A thorough analysis of the entire basin would give a larger database for drawing conclusions about controls on infiltration rates. With a complete set of infiltration measurements, the peak discharge can be modeled for the entire watershed, which would give a better indicator for the possibilities of flooding in the basin, and the possible impact a flood will have on the residents at the bottom of Gordon Gulch. 83 With the introduction of a gaging station at the outlet of upper Gordon Gulch, a comparison can be made between measured and modeled data, and the discrepancies between the values can be used to find weaknesses in the models, and with improvements a valid method of modeling peak discharges in a small watershed can be developed. This model can then be applied to other similar watersheds. 84 REFERENCES CITED Anderson, R. S., Rhimaki, C. A., Safran, E. B., Macgregor, K. 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C., 1991, The Colorado Front Range: A century of ecological change: Salt Lake City, University of Utah Press, 186 pages 87 Appendix A Complete table of soil analysis data Grain Size Class Sand Fine Sand Very Fine Sand Silt and Clay Sample Sample Identity Environment % >250µm % 250µm - 125µm %125µm - 62.5 µm Wt % < 62,5µm EMB-GG-7/28/08-1 451 Forest soil 69.69 16.28 3.78 9.32 EMB-GG-7/28/08-2 452 Open Area Hillslope 63.23 20.10 7.34 8.53 EMB-GG-7/28/08-3 453 Open Area Hillslope 62.44 18.02 8.11 10.74 EMB-GG-7/30/08-1 454 Ridge 74.90 19.26 1.17 4.34 EMB-GG-7/30/08-2 455 Forest soil 63.38 15.99 6.51 13.66 EMB-GG-7/30/08-3 456 Forest soil 69.59 22.73 1.73 5.55 EMB-GG-7/30/08-5 458 Forest soil 80.46 14.62 1.86 2.63 EMB-GG-7/30/08-6 459 Ridge 71.25 22.67 1.60 4.07 EMB-GG-7/30/08-7 460 Ridge 76.38 14.23 2.80 6.14 EMB-GG-7/31/08-1 461 Forest soil 60.29 21.12 5.30 12.82 EMB-GG-7/31/08-2 462 Forest soil 67.15 17.57 4.94 9.08 EMB-GG-7/31/08-3 472 Forest soil 67.13 27.50 1.89 2.95 EMB-GG-7/31/08-4 473 Forest soil 67.71 22.66 3.13 6.04 EMB-GG-7/31/08-5 474 Forest soil 63.14 28.63 2.52 5.01 EMB-GG-7/31/08-6 476 Forest soil 66.29 18.83 5.75 8.62 EMB-GG-7/31/08-7 477 Forest soil 72.64 21.63 1.68 3.67 EMB-GG-8/2/08-1 478 Meadow 71.58 22.96 1.29 3.68 N/A EMB-GG-8/2/08-2 EMB-GG-8/2/08-3 EMB-GG-8/2/08-4 EMB-GG-8/2/08-5 EMB-GG-8/2/08-6 EMB-GG-8/4/08-1 EMB-GG-8/4/08-2 EMB-GG-8/4/08-3 EMB-GG-8/4/08-4 EMB-GG-8/4/08-5 EMB-GG-8/4/08-6 EMB-GG-8/5/08-1 EMB-GG-8/5/08-2 EMB-GG-8/5/08-3 EMB-GG-8/5/08-4 EMB-GG-8/5/08-5 EMB-GG-8/5/08-6 479 480 481 EMB 5 EMB 6 EMB 7 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 602 603 604 605 606 Mean Std Trail Open Area Hillslope Open Area Hillslope Road Road Road Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Road Road Forest soil Forest soil Trail Forest soil Forest soil Road 57.49 71.36 62.04 75.06 79.68 65.80 75.00 66.70 64.64 71.09 75.69 65.34 78.13 73.65 75.16 68.91 73.09 69.59 5.77 22.59 19.62 27.21 19.96 13.72 26.41 15.49 20.81 20.58 22.57 14.15 21.40 12.88 13.33 12.71 15.99 22.35 19.61 4.39 8.40 2.19 2.23 1.19 2.17 2.17 2.70 3.27 4.14 1.14 6.08 4.47 3.78 6.63 3.44 6.76 0.97 3.62 2.20 11.04 6.27 8.13 3.54 4.15 5.06 6.41 8.92 10.14 4.86 3.90 8.05 4.79 6.29 8.34 8.25 3.36 6.72 2.90 Silt Clay % Silt % Clay 8.81 0.16 8.36 0.16 10.31 0.24 4.19 0.09 12.93 0.32 5.33 0.13 2.49 0.10 3.78 0.09 5.87 0.15 11.14 0.36 8.77 0.16 2.75 0.10 5.69 0.14 4.86 0.15 8.35 0.19 3.52 0.09 3.52 0.09 10.18 6.01 7.55 3.40 3.78 4.79 6.18 7.96 9.58 4.34 3.52 6.77 4.61 6.10 7.88 7.69 3.19 6.30 2.68 88 0.34 0.26 0.30 0.14 0.11 0.17 0.23 0.30 0.29 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.12 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.09 0.18 0.08 Infiltration Rate Sum 98.72 99.19 99.12 99.62 99.11 99.52 99.53 99.40 99.43 98.21 98.59 99.37 99.32 99.30 99.40 99.55 99.44 Sorting 1.4715 1.4980 1.4338 1.2445 1.5765 1.2934 1.1695 1.1390 1.4295 1.5677 1.3838 0.9886 1.2837 1.1219 1.3852 1.0752 1.4526 98.98 99.44 99.33 99.74 99.46 99.35 99.60 99.02 99.23 99.30 99.60 98.18 99.51 99.89 99.41 99.58 99.68 1.4849 1.2616 1.2883 1.2510 1.5362 1.5463 1.5129 1.2719 1.2208 1.2997 1.3834 1.4226 1.6194 1.4498 1.1391 1.4498 1.1391 171.43 257.14 150 248.28 42.61 295.08 409.09 450.00 342.86 64.86 163.64 720 553.85 782.61 253.52 211.76 1384.62 17.92 236.29 1894.74 9.84 19.39 23.18 68.57 33.42 218.18 68.18 5.68 19.32 236.84 281.25 7.39 52.31 400 6.82 1st 12.54 8.89 18.82 12.54 10.19 8.62 2nd 19.60 24.04 36.06 25.87 14.90 17.25 3rd 19.60 26.66 24.30 37.63 22.74 22.74 Average Resistance Moisture content 4th Resistance 10cm Resistance 15cm Resistance 20cm 21.17 16.07 17.25 18.23 8.15 39.72 16.46 19.86 24.83 5.24 29.79 27.44 26.39 27.24 4.33 39.20 19.21 25.35 28.81 3.18 24.30 12.54 15.94 18.03 2.66 25.09 12.94 16.20 18.42 4.83 3.14 5.49 8.89 4.70 3.92 6.27 6.27 9.41 29.01 14.11 8.36 101.92 47.56 54.10 12.54 8.36 13.33 23.52 31.36 18.03 13.07 6.27 15.68 10.19 5.75 66.38 7.84 10.98 17.25 11.76 9.41 19.60 19.34 16.20 24.30 22.47 9.41 74.48 38.15 50.18 15.68 13.07 17.25 44.69 43.90 56.45 25.09 18.82 42.34 24.30 8.89 116.03 29.79 17.25 21.43 10.19 7.06 20.38 24.57 16.73 22.74 39.72 10.45 72.13 27.44 23.00 22.74 7.84 22.74 29.79 14.63 14.90 28.22 13.59 36.59 39.98 15.68 13.07 24.30 44.69 69.78 25.87 20.91 23.52 38.15 37.63 26.66 129.36 23.00 31.36 17.25 8.89 44.69 36.85 46.26 21.95 33.97 28.22 29.79 35.28 26.66 117.60 5.49 8.23 13.07 8.23 6.66 12.94 12.81 12.81 26.66 18.29 8.89 88.20 42.86 52.14 14.11 10.71 15.29 34.10 37.63 37.24 19.08 12.54 29.01 17.25 7.32 91.21 13.59 11.24 15.85 8.89 6.79 15.42 16.73 14.11 25.35 25.44 9.41 28.22 15.29 17.64 12.35 7.06 17.25 19.99 14.24 22.74 26.13 10.45 40.77 48.09 14.63 11.50 18.29 37.63 48.35 33.45 19.69 16.20 32.06 24.04 13.76 103.92 36.33 43.90 15.29 10.85 24.89 37.44 47.82 30.58 23.26 19.21 31.49 26.85 16.99 107.34 LOI 14.21 13.19 6.57 4.16 4.75 3.38 3.08 1.99 11.03 7.13 9.93 2.95 5.21 7.02 6.74 4.54 11.72 7.68 15.15 6.61 6.41 7.47 2.77 6.66 3.58 3.78 3.10 7.03 3.82 2.90 3.03 3.62 9.92 5.46 4.56 4.53 2.42 5.46 2.75 5.22 7.31 0.10 2.73 3.62 8.75 5.86 5.26 5.69 2.71 5.59 8.96 8.83 2.08 3.72 3.20 1.80 Appendix B Complete table of field measurements Samplenumber Location Soilsample Waypoint 1L Min 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 Trail Road Meadow Meadow Meadow Meadow Forest soil Forest soil Open Area Hillslope Open Area Hillslope Ridge Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Ridge Ridge Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Meadow Trail Open Area Hillslope Open Area Hillslope Road Road Road Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Road Road Forest soil Forest soil Forest soil Trail Forest soil Gravel Covered Road EMB-GG-7/28/08-1 EMB-GG-7/28/08-2 EMB-GG-7/28/08-3 EMB-GG-7/30/08-1 EMB-GG-7/30/08-2 EMB-GG-7/30/08-3 and EMB-GG-7/30/08-4-pineneedles EMB-GG-7/30/08-5 EMB-GG-7/30/08-6 EMB-GG-7/30/08-7 EMB-GG-7/31/08-1 EMB-GG-7/31/08-2 EMB-GG-7/31/08-3 EMB-GG-7/31/08-4 EMB-GG-7/31/08-5 EMB-GG-7/31/08-6 EMB-GG-7/31/08-7 EMB-GG-8/2/08-1 EMB-GG-8/2/08-2 EMB-GG-8/2/08-3 EMB-GG-8/2/08-4 EMB-GG-8/2/08-5 EMB-GG-8/2/08-6 EMB-GG-8/4/08-1 EMB-GG-8/4/08-2 EMB-GG-8/4/08-3 EMB-GG-8/4/08-4 EMB-GG-8/4/08-5 EMB-GG-8/4/08-6 EMB-GG-8/5/08-1 EMB-GG-8/5/08-2 EMB-GG-8/5/08-3 EMB-GG-8/5/08-4 EMB-GG-8/5/08-5 EMB-GG-8/5/08-6 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 EMB 5 EMB 6 EMB 7 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 4 4 1 3 2 11 18 9 8 7 9 9 12 14 6 9 2 11 2 2 12 0 30 19 9 15 Aborted 15 7 1L Seconds Rate(mm/hr) 2L Min Steady state 2L Seconds Rate(mm/hr) 3L Min 3L Seconds Rate(mm/hr) 4L Min 10 35 45 26 46 0 0 57 250ml in 20min 38 250ml in 20min 19 2 20 24 20 18 53 38 aborted because of leak 26 43 0 27.35 for 0.5 liter 30 50 38 145ml in 25.30 170 ml in 25.00 15 51.00min for 500ml 0 25.00min for 500ml 30.00min for 50ml 30.00min for 170ml 5 818.18 743.80 1948.05 992.94 1232.20 309.92 189.39 342.62 42.61 394.88 42.61 465.93 377.39 365.26 274.93 237.84 541.13 344.93 1294.59 6 5 3 4 3 11 45 50 7 0 45 30 505.05 584.42 1093.83 852.27 909.09 296.44 7 7 3 5 5 11 5 14 40 30 30 20 481.28 471.30 929.75 619.83 619.83 300.80 12 10 280.20 12 40 269.14 9 45 349.65 9 45 349.65 7 8 9 20 17 5 6 3 20 55 0 6 39 10 25 50 464.88 382.33 378.79 169.61 193.15 659.82 531.29 889.33 8 33 18 4 6 1 out of water aborted 33 43 12 10 0 52 398.72 101.11 187.31 818.18 568.18 1826.30 298.17 1254.88 1704.55 17.92 272.73 4090.91 111.29 19.39 23.18 177.10 33.42 378.79 68.18 5.68 19.32 226.02 12 3 1 14 27 50 278.67 988.14 1859.50 3 1 24 40 1002.67 2045.45 12 0 33 55 271.64 3719.01 1.00 0 3409.09 34 35 98.58 8 30 401.07 8 50 385.93 12 52 264.96 12 24 274.93 49 30.00min for 65ml 32.35min for 500ml 52 30.00min for 60ml 215.54 7.39 52.31 433.36 6.82 12 0 284.09 11 15 303.03 7 30 454.55 89 4L Seconds Rate 4 15 802.13904 3 1 5 57 1105.6511 1748.2517 Minus 1cm Min Minus 1cm seconds Rate Minus 2cm Min Minus 2cm seconds Rate Falling Head Minus 3cm Min Minus 3 cm Seconds Rate Minus 4cm Min Minus 4cm Seconds Rate Average rate 1st 5cm 2 1 0 1 1 2 3 2 14 30 50 0 20 0 0 15 268.66 400.00 720.00 600.00 450.00 300.00 200.00 266.67 2 1 0 1 2 1 3 2 40 15 56 0 25 40 30 25 225.00 480.00 642.86 600.00 248.28 360.00 171.43 248.28 3 1 1 1 3 2 4 2 34 29 14 0 5 20 0 15 168.22 404.49 486.49 600.00 194.59 257.14 150.00 266.67 1 0 0 3 2 3 2 18 50 45 30 15 40 17 461.54 720.00 800.00 171.43 266.67 163.64 262.77 220.63 436.51 642.34 650.00 266.07 295.95 171.27 261.10 1 57 307.69 1 55 313.04 2 0 300.00 2 2 295.08 303.95 1 1 1 9 3 0 0 0 24 20 45 15 40 45 55 40 428.57 450.00 342.86 64.86 163.64 800.00 654.55 900.00 1 1 1 7 3 0 0 0 16 19 25 45 44 50 55 40 473.68 455.70 423.53 77.42 160.71 720.00 654.55 900.00 1 1 1 8 2 0 1 0 28 11 25 7 37 47 5 44 409.09 507.04 423.53 73.92 229.30 765.96 553.85 818.18 1 1 25 10 423.53 514.29 2 1 0 20 0 25 257.14 600.00 1440.00 2 1 0 22 55 26 253.52 313.04 1384.62 2 2 0 8 5 24 2 25 17 30 248.28 2117.65 38.71 2 0 30 20 17 30 257.14 2117.65 9.84 2 0 15 7 45 77.42 6 30 92.31 2 40 225.00 2 45 2 20 257.14 2 2 7 283.46 1 16 473.68 0 46 782.61 433.72 481.76 396.64 72.07 184.55 761.99 620.98 850.20 281.25 288.00 1500.00 2 0 50 25 211.76 1440.00 263.97 353.20 1441.15 33 17 235.29 2117.65 0 19 1894.74 8 45 68.57 79.43 218.18 1 40 360.00 267.73 23 251.75 2 32 236.84 2 27 244.90 247.66 2 5 288.00 2 8 281.25 2 0 300.00 288.18 1 30 400.00 1 14 486.49 246.90 2061.92 24.27 453.39 90 Penetrometer 1 2nd 5cm 3rd 5cm 4th 5cm 1st 5cm Penetrometer 2 2nd 5cm 3rd 5cm 4th 5cm 1st 5cm 7 5 6 10 22 14 19 27 47 28 33 47 66 42 43 69 9 8 5 7 27 18 14 22 50 33 29 41 81 50 51 50 4 3 3 3 6 13 11 11 10 24 27 31 17 15 56 47 51 26 22 2 3 6 3 2 8 8 15 10 7 28 16 21 17 11 88 31 35 37 14? 4 5 9 17 10 6 65 23 32 9 5 11 11 20 23 10 15 18 20 30 33 12 160 52 71 16 13 21 37 53 59 23 28 37 30 43 54 14 41 65 40 53 72 17 4 4 4 20 8 5 18 15 15 38 18 12 31 29 27 54 33 21 47 44 36 63 51 32 82 103 24 19 36 65 103 92 33 99 133 32 27 62 92 134 120 52 17 37 7 7 6 19 20 32 62 20 16 18 50 43 49 81 32 26 34 79 82 8 28 4 23 4 3 37 16 42 16 7 116 30 61 29 17 229 47 74 47 36 4 4 9 4 65 16 39 28 9 172 Penetrometer 3 Slope in degrees 2nd 5cm 3rd 5cm 4th 5cm Above At site Below 8 24 39 49 3 5 16 14 30 24 44 33 9 5 29 10 69 19 31 64 91 46 32 65 99 110 51 80 103 115 4 12 21 24 49 76 7 22 31 50 32 69 63 rock 51 89 90 6 3 4 27 4 51 75 4 25 12 61 36 113 51 188 20 17 12 10 flat 9 12 11 5 flat flat 3 17 10 14 14 6 10 16 flat flat 17 12 flat 5 2 16 9 10 13 flat 8 8 16 6 flat 8 11 flat 10 20 10 10 8 19 14 10 5 9 8 4 7 10 10 4 6 11 10 16 8 10 9 12 7 12 9 17 15 6 10 15 6 10 9 12 5 3 12 3 4 10 6 4 9 9 13 11 5 7 5 4 7 6 17 11 9 6 10 6
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