Literature on GCR
GCR general
*Bostrom, N. & Ćirković, M.M. 2008, “Introduction”, in: N. Bostrom and M.
Cirkovic (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP: Oxford.
*Bostrom, N. 2007, “Technological Revolutions: Ethics and Policy in the Dark”,
in: B. Gordijn & R. Chadwick (eds.), Medical Enhancement and Posthumanity,
Springer: New York.
Bostrom, N. 2006, “Dinosaurs, dodos, humans?” in: Global Agenda, 230–231.
*Bostrom, N. 2002, “Existential Risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and
related hazards”, in: Journal of Evolution and Technology 9.
Grossi, P. & Kunreuther, H. 2006, “Models for hard times”, in: Contingencies
March/April 2006, 33–36.
*Haimes, Y.Y. 2008, “Systems-based risk analysis”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
*Hanson, R. 2008, “Catastrophe, social collapse, and and human extinction”, in: N.
Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Hanson, R. 2007, Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction
Hawking, S., Life in the universe
Hempsell, C.M. 2004, “The Investigation of Natural Global Catastrophes”, in: JBIS
57, 2–13.
Hempsell, C.M. 2004, “The Potential for Space Intervention in Global Catastrophes”, in: JBIS 57, 14–21.
Horton, R. 2005, “Threats to human survival: a WIRE to warn the world”, in:
www.thelancet.com 365.
Joy, B. 2000, “Why the future doesn’t need us”, in: Wired Magazine 8.04.
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Kent, A. 2003, A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes, in: Risk
Analysis 24(1), 157–168.
*Leslie, J. 1996, The End of the World. The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction, Routledge: New York.
*Matheny, J.G. 2007, “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction”, in: Risk Analysis
27(5).
Parson, E.A. 2007, “The Big One: A Review of Richard Posners Catastrophe: Risk
and Response”, in: Journal of Economic Literature XLV, 147-164.
*Posner, R. 2008, “Public policy toward catastrophe”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Posner, R. 2005, “Catastrophic Risks, Resource Allocation, and Homeland Security”, in: Journal of Homeland Security.
*Posner, R.A. 2004, Catastrophe – Risk and Response, OUP: Oxford.
Powell, C.S. 2000, “20 Ways the World Could End Swept away”, in: Discover 21(10).
*Rees, M. 2003, Our Final Century, Random House, London; published in US as
Our Final Hour, Basic Books.
*Sunstein, C.R. 2007, Worst Case Scenarios, Harvard University Press: Cambridge,
MA.
Smil, V. 2005, “The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities”, in: Population and Development Review 31(2), 201-236.
WEF 2008, Global Risks 2008. A Global Risk Network Report.
WEF 2006, World Economic Forum Global Risk Report 2006.
WEF 2006, Global Risks 2006, A World Economic Forum Report, in collaboration
with MMC (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.) Merrill Lynch and Swiss Re.
*Weitzman, M.L. 2008, On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change
*Taylor, P. 2008, “Catastrophes and insurance”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
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Artificial Intelligence
Bostrom, N. 1998, “How long before superintelligence?”, Originally published in
original in Int. Jour. of Future Studies, 1998, vol. 2. Reprinted in Linguistic
and Philosophical Investigations, March 2006.
Omohundro, S.M. 2007, The Nature of Self-Improving Artificial Intelligence.
Vinge, V. 1993, The Singularity, in: Whole Earth Review, Winter 1993.
*Yudkowsky, E. 2008, “Artificial intelligence as a positive and negative factor in
global risk” in: N. Bostrom and M. Cirkovic (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks,
OUP, Oxford.
Animal Extinction
Cardillo, M., et al. 2005, “Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal
species” in: Science 309 1239–1241.
Kiehl, J.T. & Shields, C.A. 2005, “Climate simulation of the latest Permian: Implications for mass extinction” in: Geology 33(9), 757-760.
Ludwig, D. 1999, “Is it meaningful to estimate a probability of extinction?” in: Ecology 80(1), 298–310.
Moravec, H. 2000, Robot. Mere Machine to Transcendant Mind, OUP: Oxford.
O’Grady, J.J., Reed, D.H., Brook, B.W. & Frankham, R. 2004, “What are the
best correlates of predicted extinction risk?” in: Biological Conservation 118, 513520.
Asteroids
Becker, L. 2002, “Repeated Blows”, in: Scientific American, 286 (3).
Chapman, C.R. & Morrison, D. 1994, “Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and
comets: assessing the hazard”, in: Nature 367, 33–40.
Chapman, C.R. 2004, “The hazard of near-Earth asteroid impacts on earth”, in:
Earth and Planetary Science Letters 222, 1-15.
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Chapman, C.R., Durda, D.D. & Schweickart, R.L. 2006, “Mitigation: Interfaces between NASA, Risk Managers, and the Public”, White Paper submitted to
NASA Workshop on ‘Near-Earth Object Detection, Characterization, and Threat
Mitigation’, Vail CO, 26 June 2006.
Firestone, R. B. et al. 2007, “Evidence for an extraterrestrial impact 12,900 years
ago that contributed to the megafaunal extinctions and the Younger Dryas cooling” in: NAS 104(41), 16016-16021.
Gerrard, M.B. 2000, “Risk of hazardous waste sites versus asteroid and comet impacts: accounting for discrepancies in the U.S. resource allocation”, in: Risks
Analysis 20 (6), 895–904.
Gritzner, C., Dürfeld, K., Kasper, J. & Fasoulas, S. 2006, “The asteroid and
comet impact hazard: risk assessment and mitigation options”, in: Naturwissenschaften 93, 361-373.
*Napier, W. 2008, “Hazards from comets and asteroids”, in: N. Bostrom and M.
Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Morrison, D., et al. 2003, “Dealing with the Impact Hazard”
NASA 2003, “Study to Determine the Feasibility of Extending the Search for NearEarth Objects to Smaller Limiting Diameters”, Report of the Near-Earth Object
Science Definition Team, Prepared at the Request of National Aeronautics and
Space Administration Office of Space Science Solar System Exploration Division.
NASA 2006, “2006 Near-Earth object survey and deflection study”.
NASA 2007, “Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives”,
Report to Congress.
Schweickart, R.L. et al., “Threat Characterization: Trajectory Dynamics”, White
Paper 039.
Schweickart, R.L. 2007, “Technical Critique of NASA’s Report to Congress and associated of ‘2006 Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Study: Final Report’
Published 28 Dec. 2006”,
Sommer, G.S. 2004, Astronomical Odds A Policy Framework for the Cosmic Impact
Hazard, dissertation.
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Urias, J.M. et al. 1996, “Planetary Defense: Catastrophic Health Insurance for Planet Earth”, research paper presented to Air Force 2025.
Astro Risks
*Adams, F. 2008, “Long-term astrophysical processes”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Adams, F.C. & Laughlin, G. 1997, “A dying universe: the long-term fate and evolution of astrophysical objects”, in: Reviews of Modern Physics 69(2), 337–372.
Caldeira, K. & Kasting, J.F. 1991, “The lifespan of the biosphere revisited”, in:
Nature 360, 721.
Ćirković, M.M. 2002, “Cosmological forecast and its practical significance”, in: Journal of Evolution and Technology 12.
Ćirković, M.M. 2003, “Resource Letter: PEs-1: Physical eschatology” in: Am. J.
Phys. 71 (2), 122–133.
Ćirković, M.M. 2004, “Forecast for the Next Eon: Applied Cosmology and the
Long-Term Fate of Intelligent Beings”, in: Foundations of Physics, 34 (2), 239–
261.
Ćirković, M.M., “A Resource Letter on Physical Eschatology”, in: Am. J. Phys. 71,
122-133.
Dyson, F.J. 1979, “Time without end: physics and biology in an open universe”, in:
Reviews of Modern Physics 51(3), 447–460.
Freese, L. & Kinney, W.H., “The Ultimate Fate of Life in an Accelerating Universe”.
Gehrels, N., et al. 2003, “Ozone depletion from nearby Supernovae”, in: The Astrophysical Journal, 585, 1169-1176.
Korycansky, D.G., Laughlin, G. & Adams, F.C. 2001, “Astronomical engineering: a strategy for modifying planetary orbits”, in: Astrophysics and Space Science
275, 349366.
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Krauss, L.M. & Starkman, G.D., “Life, The Universe, and Nothing: Life and Death
in an Ever-Expanding Universe”
Noyes, H.P. & Lindesay, J.V. 2005, Scientific Eschatology
Rybicki, K.R. & Denis, C. 2001, “On the final destiny of the Earth and the Solar
system”, in: Icarus 151, 130-137.
Sackmann, I.-J., Boothroyd, A.I. & Kraemer, K.E. 1993, “Our Sun III. Present and future”, in: The Astrophysical Journal 418, 457–468.
Scalo, J. & Wheeler, J.C. 2002, “Astrophysical and astrobiological implications
of gamma-ray burst properties”, in: The Astrophysical Journal 418, 457–468.
Biases
Axelrod, L.J., McDaniels, T. & P. Slovic 1999, “Perceptions of ecological risk
from natural hazards”, in: Journal of Risk Research 2(1), 31-53.
Gerrard, M.B. 2000, “Risk of hazardous waste sites versus asteroid and comet impacts: accounting for discrepancies in the U.S. resource allocation”, in: Risks
Analysis 20 (6), 895–904.
*Hughes, J.J. 2008, “Millenial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats”, in:
N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Kunreuther, H., Novemsky, N. & Kahneman, D. 2000, Making Low Probabilities Useful,
Kunreuther, H. & Pauly, M. 2004, “Neglecting Disaster: Why Dont People Insure Against Large Losses?”, in: The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5-21.
Schuler, E. 2004, “Perception of Risks and Nanotechnology”, in: D. Baird, A. Nordmann & J. Schummer (eds.), Discovering the Nanoscale, Amsterdam: IOS Press.
Slovic, P. et al. 1977, “Preferences for insuring against probable small losses: insurance implications”, in: Journal of Risk and Insurance 44(2), 237–258.
Sunstein, C.R. 2002, “Probability neglect: Emotions, worst cases, and law”, in: The
Yale Law Journal 112, 61–107.
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Sunstein, C.R. 2003, “Terrorism and Probability Neglect”, in: The Journal of Risk
and Uncertainty, 26(2/3), 1211136.
Sunstein, C.R. 2007, “The catastrophic harm precautionary principle”, in: Issues
in Legal Scholarship. Catastrophic risks: prevention, compensation, and recovery.
*Yudkowsky, E. 2008, “Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global
risks”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP,
Oxford.
Bio Risks
Atlas, R.M. 1998, “The Medical Threat of Biological Weapons”, in: Critical Reviews
in Microbiology 24(3), 157-168.
Atlas, R.M. 2002, “Bioterrorism: From threat to reality”, in: Annu. Rev. Microbiol.
56, 167-185.
Chyba, C.F. & Greninger, A.L. 2004, “Biotechnology and bioterrorism: An unprecedented world”, in: Survival 24(2), 143–162.
Danzig, R. 2003, Catastrophic bioterrorism — What is to be done?, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, Washington,
D.C.
IOM (Institute of Medicine and National research Council) 2005, Globalization, biosecurity, and the future of the life sciences, The National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C.
*Kilbourne, E.D. 2008, “Plagues and pandemics: past, present, and future”, in: N.
Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Koblentz, G. 2004, “Pathogens as weapons. The international security implications
of biological warfare” in: International Security 28(3), 84-122.
*Nouri, A. & Chyba, C.F. 2008, “Biotechnology and biosecurity”, in: N. Bostrom
and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Petro, J.B., Plasse, T.R. & McNulty, J.A. 2003, “Biotechnology: Impact on Biological Warfare and Biodefense”, in: Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense
Strategy, Practice, and Science 1(3), 161–168.
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Poste, G. 2002, “Biotechnology and terrorism”, in: Prospect Magazine 74.
Relman ,D.A. , “Bioterrorism — Preparing to Fight the Next War”, in: N. Engl. J.
Med. 354(2), 113–115.
Williams, M. 2006, “The Knowledge. Biotechnology’s advance could give malefactors the ability to manipulate life processes — and even affect human behavior”,
in: Technological Review.
*Wills, C. 2008, “Evolution theory and the future of humanity”, in: N. Bostrom and
M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Climate Change
*Frame,D. & Allen, M. 2008, “Climate change and global risk”, in: N. Bostrom
and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
*IPCC 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report “The Physical Science Basis”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
*IPCC 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II Report “mpacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability”, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Mayhew, P.J., Jenkins, G.B. & Benton. T.G. 2007, “A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil
record”, in: Proc. R. Soc. B 275, 47-53.
Peiser, B. , “Climate change and civilisation collapse”, in: Adapt or Die.
Schwartz, P. & Randall, D. 2003, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Implications for United States National Security.
Toggweiler, J.R. & Russell, J. 2008, “Ocean circulation in a warming climate”,
in: Nature 451(17), 286–288.
Cosmic Rays
*Dar, A. 2008, “Influence of supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and cosmic
rays on the terrestrial environment”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global
Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
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Medvedev, M.V. & Melott, A.L. 2007, “Do extragalactic cosmic rays induce cycles in fossil diversity?”,
Doomsday Argument and Observation Selection
Effects
*Bostrom, N. 2002, Anthropic Bias, Routledge: New York.
Bostrom, N. 1993, “Are you living in a computer simulation” in: Philosophical Quarterly 53 (211), 243–255.
*Ćirković, M.M. 2008, “Observation selection effects: the Fermi paradox, the Doomsday argument and the simulation argument”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Gott, J.R. 1993, “Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects”,
in: Nature 363, 315–319.
Greenberg, M. 1999, Apocalypse Not Just Now, Research Paper No. 05-30, University of California, Los Angeles School of Law Public Law & Legal Theory Research
Paper Series.
Hanson, R. 1998, Critiquing the Doomsday Argument.
*Leslie, J. 1996, The End of the World. The Science and Ethics of Human Extinction, Routledge: New York.
*Tegmark, M. & Bostrom, N. 2005, “How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe?”
in: Nature 438, 754.
Hanson, R. 1998, The Great Filter — Are We Almost Past It?
Ethics
*Bostrom, N. 2003, “Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development”, in: Utilitas 15(3), 308–314.
Kuznick, P.J. 2007, “Prophets of doom or voices of sanity? The evolving discourse
of annihilation in the first decade and a half of the nuclear age”, in: Journal of
Genocide Research 9(3), 411–441.
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Lenman, J. 2002, “On becoming extinct”, in: Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 83,
253-269.
Leslie, J. 1999, Risking Human Extinction.
Trisel, B.A. 2004, “Human extinction and the value of our efforts”, in: The Philosophical Forum XXXV(3), 371–391.
*Sunstein, C.R. 2007, Worst Case Scenarios, Harvard University Press: Cambridge,
MA.
Fermi Paradox
Annis, J. 1999, An Astrophysical Explanation for the Great Silence
*Ćirković, M.M. 2008, “Observation selection effects: the Fermi paradox, the Doomsday argument and the simulation argument”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Ćirković, M. 2006, “Too Early? On the Apparent Conflict of Astrobiology and Cosmology”, in: Biology and Philosophy 21(3), 369–379.
Ćirković, M. 2003, “On the importance of SETI for transhumanism”, in: Journal of
Evolution and Technology
Ćirković, M. 2003, “Geo-engineering gone awry: A new partial solution of Fermis
Paradox”, in: Journal of the British Interplanetary Society 57, 209–215.
Ćirković, M. & Bradbury, R.J. 2006, Galactic gradients, postbiological evolution
and the apparent failure of SETI
Hanson, R. 1998, The Great Filter — Are We Almost Past It?
Pisani, R., The Fermi Paradox. Three Models
Wesson, P.S. 1990, “Cosmology, extraterrestrial intelligence, and a resolution of the
Fermi-Hart Paradox”, in: Q. J. R. astr. Soc. 31, 161–170.
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Nanotechnology
Freitas, R.A. Jr. 2000, Some Limits to Global Ecophagy by Biovorous Nanoreplicators, with Public Policy Recommendations
Gubrud, M.A. 1997, Nanotechnology and International Security
NATO 2005, 179 STCMT 05 E — The Security Implications of Nanotechnology.
*Phoenix, C. & Treder, M. 2008, “Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk”,
in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Saxton, J. 2007, Nanotechnology: The Future is Coming Sooner Than You Think, A
joint economic committee study.
Schuler, E. 2004, “Perception of Risks and Nanotechnology”, in: D. Baird, A. Nordmann & J. Schummer (eds.), Discovering the Nanoscale, Amsterdam: IOS Press.
Vassar, M. & Freitas R.A. Jr. 2006, Lifeboat Foundation Nanoshield.
Wiedemann, P.M. & Schütz, H. 2008, “Framing effects on risk perception of nanotechnology”, in: Public Understanding of Science 17(3), 369–379.
Wiedemann, P.M. & Schütz, H. 2008, “Framing effects on risk perception of nanotechnology”, in: Public Understanding of Science 17(3), 369–379.
Nuclear Threats
Badash, L. 2001, “Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena”, in: Physics in
perspectives 3(1), 76-105.
Ball, D. 2006, “The Probabilities of On the Beach: Assessing Armageddon Scenarios in the 21st Century”, working paper no. 401, Strategic and Defence Studies
Centre, The Australian National University, Canberra.
Prosh, E.C. & McCracken, A.D. 1985, “Postapocalypse stratigraphy: Some considerations and proposals”, in: Geology 13, 4–5.
*Potter, W. & Ackerman, G. 2008, “Catastrophic nuclear terrorism: a preventable peril”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP,
Oxford.
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Robock, A., et al. 2006, “Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts”, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 6, 11817-11843.
Robock, A. et al. 2007, “The Continuing Environmental Threat of Nuclear Weapons: Integrated Policy Responses” in: Eos 88(21).
Robock, A., Oman, L. & Stenchikov, G.L. 2007, “Nuclear winter revisited with
a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences”, in: Journal of Geophysical Research 112, D13107.
Sagan, C. 1983, “Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: some policy implications”
in: Foreign Affairs Winter 1983/84, 257–292.
Toon, O.B., at al. 2006, “Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional
scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism”, in: Atmos. Chem.
Phys. Discuss. 6, 11745-11816.
Toon, et al. 2007, “Nuclear War: Consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts”,
in: Science 315, 1224.
Physics Disasters
Blaizot, J.-P. et al. 2003, Study of Potentially Dangerous Events during Heavy-Ion
Collisions at the LHC: Report of the LHC Safety Study Group, CERN Scientific
Information Service.
Giddingsa, S.B. & Mangano, M.L. 2008, Astrophysical implications of hypothetical stable TeV-scale black holes, CERN-PH-TH/2008-025.
Jaffe, R.L., Busza, W., Sandweiss. J. & Wilczek, F. 1999, Review of Speculative ‘Disaster Scenarios’ at RHIC.
Rubbia, C. 1996, “Long baseline neutrino oscillations and proton decay: the ICARUS project”, in: Nuclear Physics B (Proc. Suppl.) 48, 172–182.
Kent, A. 2004, “A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes”, in:
Risk Analysis 24(1), 157–168.
*Tegmark, M. & Bostrom, N. 2005, “How Unlikely is a Doomsday Catastrophe?”
in: Nature 438, 754.
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*Wilczek, F. 2008, “Big troubles, imagined and real”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković
(eds.) Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Refuges
Engdahl, S. 2006, Space and Human Survival: My Views on the Importance of Colonizing Space.
Traill, L.W. et al. 2007, Minimum Viable Population Size.
Supervolcanos
Ambrose, S.H. 2003, “Did the super-eruption of Toba cause a human population
bottleneck? Reply to Gathorne-Hardy and Harcourt-Smith”, in: Journal of Human Evolution 45, 231-237.
*Rampino, M.R. 2008, “Supervolcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.) Global Catastrophic
Risks, OUP, Oxford.
Sparks, S. et al. 2005, Super-eruptions. Global Effects and Future Threats, Report
if a Geological Society of London Working Group.
Misc
Bostrom, N. 1993, “Are you living in a computer simulation” in: Philosophical Quarterly 53 (211), 243–255.
Nick, B. 2004,] “The Future of Human Evolution”, in: C. Tandy (ed.), Death
and Anti-Death: Two Hundred Years After Kant, Fifty Years After Turing, Ria
University Press: Palo Alto, 339–371.
*Caplan, B. 2008, “The totalitarian threat”, in: N. Bostrom and M. Ćirković (eds.)
Global Catastrophic Risks, OUP, Oxford.
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