Minkenberg COMPARATIVE / RELIGION POLITICAL ANDSTUDIES PUBLIC POLICY / March 2002 This article addresses the relationship between religion and politics in liberal democracies from a public policy angle. The analysis shows that contrary to the general secularization thesis, there is a visible religious impact on public policy, but it varies according to what measure of secularization is used. Confessional heritage (Catholicism versus Protestantism) and cultural values (levels of religiosity) are better predictors than institutional differentiation or political mobilization. When confessional heritage is held constant, the institutional impact increases. It is not surprising that Catholic countries produce less than fully liberal abortion policies, but the most restrictive abortion policies are found in those Catholic countries where high levels of religiosity persist. Moreover, a strong presence of religious parties is not associated with restrictive abortion policies, but in all countries with moderate to high levels of religiosity and with strong Christian Democratic parties and only there, moderate or “distress” models of abortion exist. RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY Institutional, Cultural, and Political Impact on the Shaping of Abortion Policies in Western Democracies MICHAEL MINKENBERG Europa-Universität Viadrina T he interaction of religion and politics has once again become a challenging issue in the social sciences. Earlier predictions of the decline of religion in a secularized world notwithstanding, there is a wealth of literature AUTHOR’S NOTE: Earlier versions of this article have been presented at the European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR) joint sessions of workshops in Copenhagen in April 2000 and at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association (APSA) in Washington, D.C., in September 2000. The author wishes to thank Stefano Bartolini and the European University Institute in Fiesole, Italy, for the opportunity to conduct research and write parts of this article. The author also expresses his thanks to all participants in the ECPR workshop “Church and State in Europe” and on the APSA panel “The Family and the State,” to the four anonymous Comparative Political Studies reviewers, to Peter Katzenstein and the graduate students at the Department of Government of Cornell University, and to John Madeley at the London School of Economics for helpful comments. COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES, Vol. 35 No. 2, March 2002 221-247 © 2002 Sage Publications 221 Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 222 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 on religion’s political impact, most notably in the fields of electoral and party research and political sociology. In recent years, this literature has been enriched by a theoretical debate about the concept of secularization and the usefulness of rational choice approaches in the study of religion (see Gorski, 2000). This article addresses these issues from another angle. Instead of examining the decline or persistence of religious values or the input of religion into political behavior, the focus here is, in the context of Western democracies, on the input of religious values and institutions into substantive policy areas. The perspective of this article is derived from the intersection of three questions: Do institutions matter? Does religion matter? Does politics matter? Thus the article follows a shift in public policy research from an emphasis on levels of socioeconomic development to one on more political variables such as differences between dominant party traditions and between contrasting governmental structures. In addition, it emphasizes cultural variables that have only recently received more attention (see Castles, 1993, 1998; Schmidt, 1997). A major study of modernization and new social movements concluded that the liberalization of abortion is a manifestation of a comprehensive and long-lasting secularization process (Rucht, 1994). By contrast with general secularization theories implicit in this thesis, this article argues that there is a visible religious impact on public policy but that it varies according to what measure of secularization is used. The article attempts to test whether cultural heritage (Catholicism versus Protestantism) and cultural differences (levels of religiosity) are better predictors than variation in institutional differentiation or political mobilization. In other words, is religion’s influence on public policy culturally path dependent, as a values-oriented approach might suggest, or is it the consequence of political design and behavior, as implied in rational-choice approaches? Relevant policy areas include welfare state regimes, the rules governing minority religions, and more specifically, education policy and family policy. Of course, religious interests may also play a role in other policy fields such as foreign affairs or environmental protection. But very few policy areas involve religious and moral values and interests as deeply and visibly and are as hotly contested as abortion. Moreover, abortion policies vary considerably across Western democracies, hence the article’s focus on this particular policy area. The article is organized into five parts. First, the role of religion in recent public policy literature is reviewed and an attempt is made to provide a theoretical anchoring of the major argument. Then the problem of identifying classificatory types among the variety of abortion policies is tackled. Third, variations in the institutional arrangement of church-state relations are Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 223 operationalized and their effects on abortion policies analyzed. Fourth, the cultural impact of religion is assessed using the confessional composition of the countries or their “cultural inheritance” and levels of religiosity. Finally, political parties—Christian democratic or otherwise religious—as major actors in the policy-making process are included in the analysis. The selection of country cases rests on a most similar systems design on a global scale, the criteria of which being whether a country is a consolidated democracy with a high ranking on a variety of democracy scales, has a Western or Latin Christian religious heritage, and has reached a high level of socioeconomic development, that is, a gross national product of at least $10,000 per capita in the late 1990s (see Fischer Weltalmanach, 1999; Lijphart, 1999; Schmidt, 2000). RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY IN THE MODERN WORLD If politics is understood as “authoritative allocations of values” (Easton, 1965, p. 24), these values clearly include more than goods and services as measured in public expenditures. It is true that “money is not all there is to policy, but there is little policy without it” (Klingemann, Hofferbert, & Budge, 1994, p. 41). But the literature’s usual focus on quantifiable policy outputs often leads to the ignoring of a wide realm of government action and outputs that shape society as much as spending levels. It is worth remembering that Almond and Powell (1978) distinguished four kinds of public policies: policies of extraction, policies of distribution, policies of regulation, and symbolic policies. The former two largely involve money in terms of taxation and spending. It is the third type, the regulation of individuals and groups in the society by the political system, along with the fourth that are of special interest here. Many of the domains that Almond and Powell attributed to the type of regulatory policies (such as family relations, personal conduct, protection of the person, and religious activities) belonged historically, at least in the Western, premodern world, to the domain of the churches and religion instead of the secular state. During the past few decades, the importance of regulatory and symbolic or, more generally, nonmaterial policies has increased as a result of various trends in Western democracies. They include both socioeconomic changes such as urbanization and postindustrialization and sociocultural changes such as the spread of mass education and the phenomenon of “value change” (see Inglehart, 1990). They signify an era that elsewhere has been character- Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 224 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 ized as “postmodernity” or as “reflexive modernity,” defined not as an opposite to modernity but an increasingly self-reflecting, self-critical modernity in which cultural orientations, a heightened awareness of crises, the primacy of the Lebenswelt, and the central role of education, language, and communication dominate, in short processes of further individualization, pluralization, and loss of authority (see Beck, 1986; Inglehart, 1997; Münch, 1998). In this context, quality-of-life issues and related policies, such as education policy, abortion, and other aspects of family policy; religious freedom; and immigration and naturalization policies, gain importance. In other words, in the context of “postmodernity,” personal concerns are increasingly public, and thus public policy, concerns (see Castles, 1998, p. 248). Thus a closer look at the relationship between religion and public policy seems relevant, but most comparative public policy literature ignores religious or cultural variables and tends to concentrate instead on the question of whether politics or economics matter (see Nelson, 1998). Only a few major studies include religion, but then only marginally and not in a manner that differentiates between various manifestations of religion. For example, EspingAndersen (1990) distinguished three welfare state regimes that roughly correspond with Protestant and Catholic traditions, that is, the liberal regimes of the successor states of the British empire, the conservative regimes of Continental Western Europe, and the social-democratic regimes of Scandinavia. But in his empirical analyses, the religious factor appears only in terms of the existence of a Catholic party. In contrast, van Kersbergen (1995) focused on one type of welfare state only and analyzes the influence of Christian Democratic parties and traditions. Castles (1993, 1998) took these approaches one step further in his “families of nations” concept. He recognized that “since religion defines both the cultural appropriateness of beliefs and behavior, religious differences are clearly relevant to policies concerning education and personal conduct” (Castles, 1998, p. 53). But these “religious differences” are identified only by a narrow range of variables: Christian Democratic incumbency, Catholicism, and Catholic cultural impact, the last being a dichotomous summary measure of the first two. This operationalization treats different religious traditions as “Catholic cultural impact” (as in Germany or, for that matter, Orthodox Greece), ignores links between nonChristian Democratic conservative parties and the established churches (as in the United Kingdom), and does not take into account the issue of laïcité, that is, a strict regime of church-state separation, which decisively delimits any Catholic impact (as in France). Thus it is problematic that France, Germany, and Greece along with Italy and Austria belong to the category of nations with a Catholic cultural impact. Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 225 The following analysis applies a more nuanced operationalization of religion’s independent effects on public policy. Measures of this impact are derived from the current debate on secularization theory, which, in fact, encompasses a number of theories. In its most well-known version, as advanced by Max Weber and other sociologists, this theory posits the decline of religious worldviews in the age of modernity and the shrinking significance of religion in public life. Other variants predicted religion’s complete disappearance (Comte), its privatization (Luckmann), or its transformation, that is, an institutional decline coupled with a diffusion and persistence of Christian values in the Western world (Parsons) (see Gorski, 2000; see also Casanova, 1994; Martin, 1978). The secularization paradigm has recently been attacked by a school of scholars promoting a rational-choice or an “economics of religion” model (Gorski, 2000). Based on data of religious participation in the United States or individual religious beliefs, these scholars advanced a supply-side argument to explain church attendance or church strength in particular and secularization in general (see, for example, Iannaccone, 1991; Stark & Iannaccone, 1994). For example, Iannaccone pointed out that religious competition that flourishes most under conditions of low to zero regulation by the state stimulates interest in churches because these are forced to adjust to changing market forces. This approach takes its inspiration from Adam Smith and argues that self-interest motivates the clergy and other religious “providers” just as much as it motivates secular producers and that market forces affect churches as much as they do secular firms (Iannaccone, 1991). Clearly, there is significant evidence against general theories of secularization that depict a straight-line decline in the significance of religion, although the supply siders’ argument of an upswing of religion in the modern age is equally debatable (see Bruce, 1999; Gorski, 2000). Recent global studies on modernization and cultural change demonstrated the persistence of religious values even in Europe, where adherence to the institutions of religion has dramatically decreased in the postwar period. This is so because “cultural change [is] path dependent. Economic development tends to bring pervasive cultural changes, but the fact that a society was historically shaped by Protestantism or Confucianism or Islam leaves a cultural heritage with enduring effects that influence subsequent development” (Inglehart & Baker, 2000, p. 49). Thus although the general secularization thesis may apply to the industrial age, the current emergence of postmodern societies seems not to have perpetuated this trend (see also Inglehart, 1997). Moreover, in the transition toward postmodernity and globalization, a “deprivatization” of religion has occurred, a new entry of churches into the public sphere that com- Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 226 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 bines the religious message with a defense of modern universalistic values and liberal democracy or a “transformation of the church from a state-oriented to a society-oriented institution” (Casanova, 1994, p. 220). In sum, secularization theory’s core claim of an ongoing differentiation of religious and nonreligious values and institutions remains valid (Casanova, 1994). It represents a variant of theories of rationalization and modernization that postulates a continuing functional differentiation of modern societies along with a growing autonomy of the self or individualization (Rucht, 1994; Weber, 1920). But this modernization process reflects separate “moments of secularization” (Casanova) that must be clearly distinguished: secularization as “institutional differentiation,” in particular the separation of state and church and the growing autonomy of churches in a liberal democracy, and secularization as “individual disenchantment,” that is, the loosening ties of the individual to the values and institutions of religion. Usually, the pluralization within the realm of organized religion is also seen as an aspect of secularization triggered by the Protestant Reformation, which initially, however, led to institutional de-differentiation in the “alliance of throne and altar” (see Casanova, 1994; Martin, 1978). In this light, the supply siders’ argument that political deregulation enhances religious vitality employs one meaning of secularization, that of institutional differentiation, to refute another one, that of a decline of religious beliefs and practices. However the point of this article is not to show whether and how institutional differentiation affects religiosity or vice versa but whether any of them affect political outputs across various political systems and, if so, by how much. From the preceding discussion, a supply-side or rational-choice argument might be advanced that political deregulation, that is, strict separation of church and state, has a particularly strong impact on abortion policy. In contrast, the cultural or values-oriented approach, which postulates a persisting influence of confessional values, would suggest a differential effect on abortion policies of the contrast between Catholic and Protestant societies. As a variant on the cultural approach, stressing the importance of religiosity leads to an expectation that disenchantment predicts abortion policies better than institutional differentiation or confessional heritage. Finally, a narrowly political argument might hypothesize that the presence and strength of religiously oriented parties, especially Christian Democratic parties, should be particularly consequential. One might argue that other political actors must also be included, most notably, the Catholic churches and women’s movements, which often hold diametrically opposed views on abortion and related issues. Clearly churches, like political parties, are independent actors and can be studied as interest groups (see Warner, 2000), but in this article, they are conceptualized Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 227 as institutions acting via the institutionalized relation they have with the state and as interest groups acting via the political parties. Women’s movements will also be excluded from the current exercise on the grounds that unlike churches or Christian Democratic parties, they cannot be modeled as a religious variable. Moreover, comparative research on women’s movements and the abortion issue shows that the evidence of the relationship between the movements’ strength and resources and the outcome is inconclusive. The movements were important in putting the issue on the agenda but, compared with other factors, left few traces in the actual making of policy (see Rucht, 1994, especially p. 172; Yishai, 1993; see also M. F. Katzenstein & Mueller, 1987). POLICY OUTPUT: ABORTION POLICIES IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES The abortion conflict involves a clash of values or even of “absolutes” (Tribe, 1992) that counter poses an individual woman’s self-determination and the protection of unborn human life. In the political realm, the confrontation between feminists’ insistence on a woman’s absolute freedom of reproductive choice and the Catholic and, to a lesser extent, Protestant churches’ insistence on the absolute priority of human life (which includes the fetus’s right after conception) has been met by a variety of authoritative responses from governments and states. On a worldwide scale in the early 1990s, 133 states regulated abortion but only 18 of them practiced abortion on request (Yishai, 1993). In general and following these remarks, abortion policies can be classified according to their degree of “liberalism,” that is, the priority given to the principle of individual choice. If this principle outweighs the principle of the sanctity of human life, including unborn life, these policies are considered liberal; if the priority of the principles is reversed, they are considered restrictive. The problem with such a simple dichotomy is that it obscures important distinctions as well as other dimensions that are useful in distinguishing abortion policies. Thus in an innovate approach, Yishai’s (1993) analysis proceeded in terms of two dimensions, arguing that there are two logically unrelated aspects of the issue: individual choice and the state’s commitment to allowing this choice. According to this classification scheme, each abortion policy in any country falls into one of four categories: an enabling policy in which abortion is allowed strictly on the basis of a woman’s subjective consideration and the state provides the means, through funding and health care, to implement the abortion (Sweden); a hindering policy in which individual Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 228 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 choice is principally acknowledged and largely unrestricted but the state is not committed to enabling a woman to act on her decision (United States); an intrusive policy that restricts individual choice but allows the implementation by state means of whatever choice is available (Israel); and a restrictive policy in which neither individual choice nor state assistance to implement a decision exist (Ireland). This classification certainly has advantages because, for example, it draws attention to a distinction between similarly liberal cases such as Sweden and the United States that nonetheless diverge sharply in the state’s role in enabling a woman to implement her decision. It also raises fundamental questions about the meaning of principles in practical politics. However, there are a number of problems with it. First, it puts too much emphasis on the state’s role in enabling women to pursue their choice as opposed to the role of society or the market. Second, in relation to the first point, it confuses two different policy areas, that of abortion and that of health care. It is not so much the importance of the different interpretations of individual choice that separates Sweden and the United States but the privatization of health care in the United States and the entirely different role of the state in Swedish politics and society. Third, it creates an odd category, with Israel as a case, of a grotesque mix of policy elements in which choice is restricted but enabling means are provided without discussing whether this is a truly exceptional case or a category into which other countries might also fall. Therefore this article employs the aspect of individual choice as the primary criterion but allows for a more nuanced classification. For example, Eser (1994) distinguishes among three types of abortion legislation along a continuum between a pole characterized by the priority of individual choice and a pole at which abortion is illegal and individual choice is replaced by various “exceptions”: the period model (Fristenmodell auf Selbstbestimmungsbasis in the original), that is, unlimited individual choice within a legally defined period, is contrasted by the indication model (Indikationsmodell auf Drittbeurteilungsbasis) in which abortion is declared permitted only as an exception based on legal criteria and others’ (usually physicians’) judgment if these criteria are met. Somewhat in between is a distress model (Notlagenmodell auf Selbsteinschätzungsbasis), whereby a woman can claim a situation of social or otherwise defined distress (Eser, 1994). Clearly, the first model is a rather liberal approach because it acknowledges a woman’s reproductive rights: It is her exclusive right to decide whether to terminate her pregnancy within a certain time span (usually the third trimester), without having to give special reasons. On the other hand, the indication model is a very restrictive policy because abortion is declared a crime and therefore punishable. Only under certain circumstances not decided by the Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 229 Table 1 A Typology of Abortion Policies Period Model Distress Model Denmark Norway Sweden Belgium France Italy The Netherlands a Canada Finland United States Indication Model Australia Austria Germany a New Zealand a United Kingdom Liberal Portugal Spain Switzerland Ireland a Restrictive Source: Eser, 1994; Eser and Koch, 1988; International Planned Parenthood Federation, 2000; Rolston and Eggert, 1994; Rucht, 1994; Yishai, 1993; Sachdev, 1988. Note: The classification is based on the following criteria: inauguration date of current ruling, the ruling’s underlying principle, the model as applied in practice, the restriction to certain periods of pregnancy, the existence and length of waiting periods, the existence of compulsory counseling, the location of the abortion practice as allowed under the ruling, and uniformity of the ruling. Information on public funding is not included in the list of criteria. For details, see appendix in Minkenberg (2000). a. In these countries, practice diverges sharply from the legal principle: Ireland does not even have an indication model, but theoretically, a legal abortion based on a “vital indication” is possible. In current British and New Zealand practice, the abortion policy follows the logic of a distress model, whereas the Canadian Supreme Court declared the indication model of 1969 illegal, thereby allowing a very liberal practice. woman but by doctors or other experts who determine the “indications” are exceptions allowed and the woman exempted from criminal charges. The woman’s choice is second to null; counseling is usually mandatory. Finally, the distress model emphasizes the priority of the unborn life but leaves the final decision up to the woman. Here also, counseling is usually compulsory, there are waiting periods, and it is made clear that abortions are granted only exceptionally. The woman has to give special reasons for her decision to terminate her pregnancy and claim a situation of distress. Where the final decision is only hers, variants of this model can be classified as moderately liberal. With the exception of Ireland, the abortion policies in all Western democracies fall into one of the three categories (see Table 1). When considering the variation of abortion policies and strictly political institutions or variables, such as the type of democracy (consensus versus majoritarian democracy), party system (multiparty versus two-party system), federalism, or judicial review (see Lijphart, 1999), no identifiable patterns emerge. One might argue that the distress model is somewhat associated with consensus democracy in which the existence of multiparty systems and other Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 230 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 factors mediate “extreme approaches” (see Lijphart, 1999, p. 284). One might hypothesize a particularly strong impact of religious or secular parties in two-party systems, other things being equal. However, taking into account federalism and judicial review in the United States and Germany, other things are equal but the results are not. Both countries are federal systems and have the most independent constitutional court and judicial review systems. But whereas in the United States, the Supreme Court issued a very liberal rule in 1973 (somewhat restricted in the 1989 decision), in Germany just a few years later, the Constitutional Court overturned liberal legislation in 1975 and issued a restrictive rule (somewhat loosened in 1995). This direct GermanAmerican comparison suggests that factors other than those of political institutions are at work, and to these the remainder of the article will now turn. DO INSTITUTIONS MATTER? THE COMPLEX WEB OF CHURCH-STATE RELATIONS Structural approaches and typologies of church-state relations tend to be based on a combination of institutional links on one hand and the degree of secularization or the confessional mix in the respective nations on the other. A large variety of descriptive-analytical terms has been generated by the literature, but the terms can be grouped into families of concepts. One family, under the influence of Weber (1922/1974), classifies church-state relations according to the degree of legitimacy of political and religious authority, whereas another derives its criteria from the conception of the state in a liberal democracy and the extent and nature of the state’s neutrality toward religion (see Esbeck, 1994; Monsma & Soper, 1997). Yet another family uses as a yardstick the legal recognition of churches and denominations, in particular, the extent of discrimination or privilege (Messner, 1999) or the degree of constitutional separation and laïcité (Barbier, 1995; see also Zylberberg, 1995). In light of this article’s argument, two dimensions of the debate can be distinguished, one empirical and the other normative. On one hand, numerous empirical studies tend to be case-study based and highly legalistic. For example, an influential volume in the field lists descriptively, country by country, many legal aspects of church-state relations as they have evolved during the past decades in member states of the European Union (Robbers, 1996). On the other hand, many texts continue explicitly to raise the question of the desirability of a strict separation and its implications for civil rights and democracy. Some argue for a particular form of “positive neutrality” toward religion on behalf of the state (Monsma & Soper, 1997), whereas others employ measures of legal aspects and public policy outputs in arguing a Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 231 legalistic case in defense of the French tradition of laïcité (Messner, 1999; see also Barbier, 1995; Zylberberg, 1995). All of these approaches are characterized by the fact that they either are built on a single dimension (or a small number of interrelated indicators) or involve a broad variety of indicators but do not sufficiently distinguish between independent and dependent variables in the church-state relationship or the difference between the institutional arrangement itself and its political corollaries. For the purpose of comparative political analysis, a more robust operationalization is required that would involve the identification of political, economic, and legal criteria while avoiding mere historical or institutional accounts. Instead of being legalistic, normative, or case-study oriented, the approach should be empirical, analytical, and comparative. A first step toward a concept that satisfies these criteria is provided by Chaves and Cann (1992). In contrast to Iannaccone’s supply-side approach and his focus on the relationship between Protestant concentration and church attendance rates (which showed a strong correlation but ignored Catholic countries; see above and Iannaccone, 1991), Chaves and Cann argued with de Tocqueville that the theoretical focus needs to be adjusted toward political aspects: Like Smith, [de Tocqueville] focused on the separation of church and state, but he highlighted the political rather than the economic aspect of that separation: the advantage that religion enjoys when it is not identified with a particular set of political interests. (Chaves & Cann, 1992, p. 275) Moreover, they suggested that regardless of the official relationship between church and state, Catholic societies are by definition much less pluralistic in religious terms than are Protestant societies and that different dynamics are at work. To overcome the problems of Iannaccone’s (1991) approach, Chaves and Cann (1992) measured church-state relations with a six-item index of regulation/deregulation that includes political, economic, and legal aspects but excludes policy elements such as religious education in public schools. Thus among the virtues of this index are that it avoids the problems associated with choosing a single dichotomous distinction that counter poses church-state separation with established religion and that it draws a clear line between the institutional arrangement and its public policy implications, for example, in the realm of education. The six items measure whether (a) there is a single, officially recognized state church; (b) there is official state recognition of some denominations but not others; (c) the state appoints or approves the appointment of church leaders; (d) the state directly pays church personnel Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 232 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 Table 2 A Continuum of Church-State Relations 0 1 Australia France Canada Ireland The Netherlands New Zealand United States 2 2.3a Austria b Portugal Spain 3 4 Belgium Germany Italy Switzerland United Kingdom State-church separation (deregulation) 5 6 Denmark Norway Finland Sweden State-church fusion (regulation) Source: Chaves and Cann (1992), p. 284. a. Mean. b. Portugal, which is missing in Chaves and Cann’s (1992) classification, is coded 2 according to their criteria based on Canas (1995). salaries; (e) there is a system of ecclesiastical tax collection; and (f) the state directly subsidizes, beyond mere tax breaks, the operation, maintenance, or capital expenses for churches (Chaves & Cann, 1992). The result of this index is the following distribution of countries along a 7-point scale (see Table 2). This distribution of 19 countries shows that there is a significant variation of church-state relationships, even within the group of Catholic countries such as Ireland on one hand and Belgium on the other; that is, “although Catholic countries are uniformly non-pluralistic, they are not uniformly regulated” (Chaves & Cann, 1992, p. 283, see also Table 4). As expected, the four Scandinavian countries, all Protestant, appear at the pole of strong state regulation, whereas historically Catholic France and the predominantly Protestant United States are close to each other at the pole of separation or deregulation. It is not surprising that Germany is in the middle along with Protestant Britain and Catholic Belgium but above the mean.1 A first attempt can now be made to look at the implications of the relationship between church and state for abortion policies. For the sake of clarity, the continuum of church-state relations has been condensed into a threefold typology: Countries with values of 0 and 1 are classified as cases of church1. It might seem surprising to find Ireland at the extreme end of the separation scale, but the powerful presence of Catholicism did not require constitutional or institutional privileges. Other classifications such as Messner’s (1999) also list Ireland, along with France and the Netherlands, among the “pluralist countries.” Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 233 Table 3 Abortion Policies and Church-State Relations Separation Period Model Distress Model Indication Model Canada United States France The Netherlands New Zealand Australia Ireland Austria Belgium Germany Italy United Kingdom Portugal Spain Switzerland Partial establishment Full establishment Denmark Finland Norway Sweden state separation, those with values between 2 and 4 belong to the category of partial establishment, and the rest are considered as cases of full establishment. The results of the analysis are presented in Table 3. No overall pattern emerges when abortion policies and varieties of church-state relations are taken into account, but some clustering of the cases is visible. In all four Scandinavian countries, which are the only ones with full establishment, the liberal period model is applied. But the other two countries with a period model scored lowest on the establishment scale. Thus secularization as institutional differentiation by itself does not lead to a liberalization of abortion. However, among those cases with establishment, partial or full, a pattern is apparent. Full establishment correlates highly with the most liberal model, whereas partial establishment corresponds with the less liberal distress or the very restrictive indication model. This suggests that where establishment exists, the interest of churches to prevent a liberal abortion ruling is better served if churches operate somewhat independently of the state, as deprivatized, society-oriented churches (Casanova, 1994; see above). Overall, Table 3 demonstrates that the institutional impact is modest to low and that secularization as differentiation does not predict effects of religious values on public policy. In other words, contrary to some secularization theorists (see Gorski, 2000, and above), institutional differentiation does not augur the demise of religious influence in politics. But in contrast to expectations that the economics of religion model might raise, the political deregulation of religion does not much enhance religion’s impact on public policy either. Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 234 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 DOES RELIGION MATTER? CONFESSIONAL COMPOSITION AND RELIGIOSITY In light of the modest policy impact of institutional differentiation, a more pronounced effect might be expected from a cultural modeling of religion. As argued previously, two versions of the cultural model must be distinguished: on one hand, the confessional composition of a country that, if at all, is the standard variable of religion’s input in comparative public policy research; on the other hand, levels of religiosity as another measure of a country’s cultural values. In terms of the secularization argument outlined earlier, the first might be seen as an indicator of a country’s cultural differentiation or cultural pluralism, whereas the second points to the country’s path of secularization as disenchantment. Most texts that emphasize the role of confessions in a nation’s history classify countries as Catholic, Protestant, or confessionally mixed, and most of them, as well as some of the public policy literature (see above), assert a longlasting influence of these cultural patterns on current policy and politics (see Bruce, 1996; Inglehart, 1997; Martin, 1978). The following analysis is based on a theoretically orientated categorization of countries and confessional patterns as provided by Martin (1978). Martin distinguished between “crucial events” such as the success or failure of the Reformation and the outcome of civil wars and revolutions, on one hand, and “resultant patterns” on the other (for example, the British, American, Russian, Calvinist, and Lutheran patterns). From these, he derived five fundamental categories according to whether a culture is Protestant and whether it is pluralistic (Martin, 1978). Only the first three of them are of interest here: (a) cultures with a Protestant dominance, resulting either from a lack of Catholics (the Scandinavian countries) or because Catholic minorities arrived after the pattern had been set (England, the United States). These cultures are shaped by the principle of the individual conscience in religion and politics and the withdrawal of the church from attempts at dominating society independent from the state. The other two categories of interest are as follows: (b) cultures with a Protestant majority and substantial Catholic minorities according to the historic ratio of 60 to 40 (the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland),2 where a cultural rather than a mere political bipolarity has emerged along with subcultural segre2. The emphasis is on the historic weight of the Protestant majority, not on the current proportion, such as that in the Netherlands of the early 1990s where Catholics (36%) outweigh Protestants (26%) and are rivaled by an equally large group of those with no church affiliation at all (see Fischer Weltalmanach, 1999). Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 235 Table 4 Church-State Relations and Confessional Composition Predominantly Protestant Mixed Protestant Predominantly Catholic Separation Australia New Zealand United States Canada The Netherlands France Ireland Partial establishment United Kingdom Germany Switzerland Austria Belgium Italy Portugal Spain Full establishment Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Source: Chaves and Cann (1992); Martin (1978). gation; and (c) cultures with a Catholic dominance and democratic or democratizing regimes (France, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Ireland) that are characterized by large political and social fissures, organic opposition, and secularist dogmas. The differences between the first two types are striking: “Whereas in Protestant societies the secular symbols of res republica [sic] and the religious symbols converge, in Catholic societies the symbols of Church and Republic diverge” (Martin, 1978, p. 120). Other striking differences concern the roles of education, divorce, and the individual conscience. Historically, countries with a Catholic dominance and a sizable Protestant minority (a reverse of the 60-40 ratio in Category 2) have not materialized. Thus a spectrum results that is summarized in Table 4. The confessional distribution of countries in Table 4 corresponds closely with the ordering of countries along one of the two axes of Inglehart’s (1997) modernism-postmodernism map, that is, the axis with the two poles of values of survival and values of well-being, the latter pole largely consisting of predominantly Protestant countries (see Inglehart, 1997). Clearly, confessional traditions, even in an era of progressive secularization, shape dominant values in societies. However, there seems to be no clear relationship between confessional composition of a country and its citizens’ leanings toward more traditional or more secular-rational concepts of authority (Inglehart, 1997). The combined look at both the historical (cultural) and institutional (struc- Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 236 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 Table 5 Abortion Policies, Confessional Composition, and Church-State Relations Period Model Predominantly Protestant Mixed Protestant Predominantly Catholic United States Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Canada a a Distress Model New Zealand Indication Model a Australia a United Kingdom The Netherlands Germany a France Austria Belgium Italy a Switzerland a Ireland Portugal Spain a. Countries with church-state separation (see Tables 2 and 3). tural) dimensions of church-state relations underlines the observations made previously: There is no unilinear relationship between degree of regulation or institutional differentiation and degree of Protestantism in the countries (see also Chaves & Cann, 1992). When confronting the confessional map with the world of abortion policies (see Table 5), a pattern emerges that underlines the relevance of cultural factors. The period model is applied only in countries with Protestant populations or majorities. But the opposite is not true for the restrictive indication model, which is found in Catholic, mixed, and Protestant countries alike. Table 5 suggests a distinct “Catholic effect,” because there is no Catholic country in which a clearly liberal model of abortion is applied, and there is only one predominantly Protestant country with the restrictive approach of the indication model. In the mixed countries, no relationship is discernible. But a closer look also demonstrates some combined effects of confessional composition and of church-state relations on abortion policies. Within the group of mixed countries, a clear separation tends to go along with a more liberal approach, whereas a closer relationship—partial establishment— tends to favor a more restrictive approach (see also Table 1). When considering that in addition, those Catholic countries in which the indication model exists are also countries with rather low levels of regulation of churches (see Table 2), the distribution suggests that the Catholic church in mixed or Catholic societies is a more effective political actor when it is separated from the state rather than somehow privileged or regulated. Within the group of predominantly Protestant countries, the reverse seems true. Although a “wall of Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 237 separation” does not entail a particular abortion model, the Protestant “state church group” of the Nordic countries is also the one with the most liberal abortion policies. Because an analysis of the Greek case with an orthodox state church reveals a similar outcome (Mavrogordatos, 2000), one might infer that highly privileged churches do not put their money into fighting for particular policy positions that are traditionally dear to them. They instead seem to prefer preserving their status, even by compromising on these issues. In other words, they have ceased to be religious interest groups and have turned into political institutions.3 Overall, Table 5 confirms the limits of a culture-blind economics of religion approach: When confessional patterns are introduced and held constant, the policy effects of institutional differentiation increase somewhat. One of the most relevant considerations affecting how churches operate is level of religiosity, because high levels of religiosity assure churches high legitimacy as political actors. Moreover, religiosity may be a better predictor for public policy than confessional composition alone if the question of whether a country is Catholic or Protestant is held to be less important than whether Catholics or Protestants actually attend church or believe the teachings of the church. In the following analysis, religiosity is measured by frequency of churchgoing rather than by religious beliefs because it ties religiosity to existing institutions instead of more abstract religious concepts and values. Data on churchgoing in the 19 countries analyzed here are taken from the 1980s and 1990s waves of the World Values Survey (see Inglehart & Baker, 2000; Inglehart & Minkenberg, 2000). Table 6 summarizes levels of religiosity as measured by average rates of churchgoing in the two decades. The pattern in Table 6, taken together with the data in Table 2, underlines the importance of distinguishing the different dimensions of secularization. In terms of institutional differentiation, the Scandinavian group of countries is not secularized. But the data on religiosity (whether measured in terms of churchgoing or in terms of religious beliefs) indicate an advanced state of secularization as disenchantment. Quite the opposite seems true for countries such as Ireland, Canada, Spain, and the United States, where regardless of confessional factors, churchgoing rates or subjective religiosity is comparatively high and the institutional separation of church and state is rather advanced (for data on religious beliefs, see Inglehart & Baker, 2000; Inglehart & Minkenberg, 2000). 3. This suggests that churches can be analyzed as interest groups (see Warner, 2000), but they do not always behave as such. They assume various roles, and in some cases, it may be more appropriate to analyze them as parapublic institutions that link private and public sectors and act on only a few selected policy fields (P. Katzenstein, 1987). Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 238 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 Table 6 Levels of Religiosity Low Religiosity Denmark Finland France Norway Sweden Medium Religiosity (19) (12) (17) (13) (12) Austria Australia Belgium Germany The Netherlands New Zealand Switzerland United Kingdom (35) (32) (36) (31) (35) (no data) (34) (24) High Religiosity Canada Ireland Italy Portugal Spain United States (42) (88) (47) (42) (44) (58) Source: World Values Surveys 1981, 1990-1991, 1995-1998, in Inglehart & Baker (2000, p. 46); Inglehart & Minkenberg (2000, p. 128; recalculated). Note: Data represent the average frequency of churchgoing (percentage at least once a month) in the 1980s and 1990s. The position of New Zealand is an estimate derived from other sources and based on circumstantial evidence. The data in Table 7 complete the analysis of the direct religious impact on public policy and provide the clearest pattern of relationships. Low religiosity corresponds with liberal abortion policies. The difference between Scandinavia and France lies in the difference between Protestantism and Catholicism and between full establishment and separation. However, high religiosity is not automatically associated with restrictive abortion policies, but coupled with Catholicism, it is. The “Catholic impact” marks the difference between the United States and Ireland, the two countries that score highest in religiosity while applying a separatist model of church-state relations. That is, other things being equal, religious doctrine or the cultural pattern set earlier in a country’s history is an important factor for explaining the effects of religion on politics. But among Catholic countries in which differences of religious doctrine are less relevant, variations in abortion policy can best be explained by levels of religiosity, with France, Austria, and Belgium on one hand and Ireland, Portugal, and Spain on the other (Italy being an exception here). A direct comparison of France and Ireland is most telling, because both countries share the heritage of Catholic doctrine and a separation of state and church but differ vastly in terms of religiosity. In general, when comparing Tables 3 and 7, it becomes clear that religiosity is a better predictor of public policy than is institutional differentiation, especially when religious doctrine is also taken into account. Moreover, whereas the institutional impact increased when the confessional makeup of the countries was held constant (see Table 5), it is less strong than the confessional impact when levels of religiosity are held constant (Table 7). Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 239 Table 7 Abortion Policies, Religiosity, and Confessional Composition Period Model Low religiosity Denmark a Finland a Norway a Sweden France Indication Model c ac Medium religiosity High religiosity Distress Model a New Zealand a United Kingdom b Germany bc The Netherlands Austria Belgium United States bc Canada ac Italy Australia ac Switzerland b Irelandc Portugal Spain a. Countries that are predominantly Protestant. b. Countries that are mixed Protestant. c. Countries that are cases of church-state separation. DOES POLITICS MATTER? RELIGION IN THE PARTY SYSTEM The most direct link between religion and politics at the intersection of the electoral and policy-making levels exists where explicitly religious parties, most notably, Christian Democratic ones, play a role in the party system. Here, one would expect distinct policy effects, particularly in those areas of public policy in which church interests are visible. The study of party systems and the role of religious forces therein has been influenced largely by the seminal article of Lipset and Rokkan (1967). They argued that the statechurch cleavage was one of the most consequential factors shaping West European party systems: The decisive battle came to stand between the aspirations of the mobilizing nation-state and the corporate claims of the churches. This was far more than a matter of economics. . . . The fundamental issue between Church and State focused on the control of education. (p. 15) The result of these policies of the nation-state was the formation of confessional parties as a defensive reaction of the churches. However, contrary to the general persuasiveness of the model, Lipset and Rokkan’s (1967) theory cannot explain why in the French III Republic, no Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 240 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 such party emerged. Here, the major theoretical conditions for the formation of a confessional party were met, that is, a strong Catholicism and an intense conflict between state and church (see Kalyvas, 1996). Furthermore, the theory did not anticipate the emergence of Protestant parties or movements such as those in contemporary Scandinavia or the United States (see Minkenberg, 1990; von Beyme, 1984). In general, it is important to distinguish between the existence of a religious cleavage and the existence of a confessional party: “A religious cleavage without a confessional party is bound to produce a significantly different political environment than a religious cleavage with a confessional party” (Kalyvas, 1996, p. 116). The relevance of religious cleavages in the postmodern world has been demonstrated by a variety of election studies. Whereas the class cleavage has undergone a steady decline in significance and denominational voting followed a similar but less linear trend, the religious cleavage in terms of the relationship between religiosity (as measured by church attendance; see above) and Left-Right voting behavior has stayed rather stable. No clear upward or downward trends occurred, except for a slight but steady increase of religious voting in the United States, which can be attributed to the growing mobilization efforts of the New Christian Right (see Dalton, 1996; see also Inglehart, 1997; Minkenberg, 1996). In the early 1990s in all but the United States and the United Kingdom, the strength of the relationship between church attendance and voting exceeded that of social class voting (see Dalton, 1996). The relationship was strongest in Central and Northern European countries, that is, those countries on which some Christian (Protestant or Catholic) parties have appeared in the postwar party system but secularization as disenchantment has advanced furthest. It is also evident that with few exceptions (United States, Canada), religiosity is a more powerful predictor of voting behavior than denomination. Thus considering that religious cleavages are in fact relevant for voting behavior and party competition and, as shown elsewhere, party competition matters for public policies (see Klingemann et al., 1994), one should expect decisive effects of the cleavage on public policy.4 In fact, Castles’s (1998) analysis showed that in the case of security transfers, public education expenditures, and divorce rates, there is a religious effect. But Christian Democratic incumbency correlates much less with the dependent variables than do other related variables such as the political right’s incumbency and Catholicism-Catholic cultural impact (see Castles, 1998). Because his 4. In their analysis, Klingemann, Hofferbert, and Budge (1994) largely ignored religiously relevant policies. Of the 54 categories of party platform items they use, only two relate to religion. Churches or other religious groups are not included in the list of social groups. Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 241 Table 8 Strength of Religious Partisan Impact (1945 - 1999) 0 1 France New Zealand Australia Canada 2 3 3.3a Ireland Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States 4 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland Germany Norway 5 The Netherlands Italy Source: For the complete list of references, see Minkenberg (2000, p. 24, Table 7); see also Gold (1992); Franklin, Mackie, and Valen (1992). a. Mean. operationalization of the religious factor has some drawbacks (as noted previously), it is proposed here to approach the role of religion in the party system by a different route. To arrive at a measure that captures a religious (Christian) instead of a merely Catholic partisan impact, the countries are classified according to five criteria (during the entire time span from 1945 until 1999): (a) Are there explicitly religious parties? (b) Are there (other) parties with ties to religious groups or churches? (c) Do the platforms of these parties contain explicitly religious contents? (d) Is the religious cleavage salient (i.e., a value of 0.25 or more, as measured by Dalton, 1996)? (e) Have any of these parties been part of the national government for at least 20 years? The summary in Table 8 shows some striking similarity between the ranking of these nations and the ranking of the salience of religious voting, with the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Norway at the top of the scale (Dalton, 1996). There is an obvious relationship between the cleavage factor on the voters’ side and the parties’ orientation at the party system and government side. It also shows that with regard to the partisan variable, these countries cannot be ranked according to their confessional composition. For the last step of the analysis, the continuum of religious partisan impact is condensed into a threefold typology: countries with a value of 4 or 5 are classified as having a strong religious partisan impact, those with values 2 and 3 as having a medium impact, and those with values 0 and 1 as having a low impact. A detailed discussion of each country’s Christian Democratic or otherwise religiously oriented party and their platform positions on abortion cannot be pursued here. Suffice it to say that in Germany, the ChristlichDemokratische Union and even more so the Christlich-Soziale Union opposed the liberalization of the abortion policy in both the early 1970s and early 1990s. But unification added a more liberal wing of East German activ- Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 242 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 Table 9 Abortion Policies, Religious Partisan Impact, and Religiosity Period Model Distress Model b Low religious partisan impact Canada Medium religious partisan impact United States New Zealand France b Indication Model a United Kingdom Australia a Sweden a b Ireland b Portugal b Spain a Switzerland bc High religious partisan impact Denmark Finland Norway Italy ac Austria Belgiumac Germanyac ac The Netherlands a. Countries that are those with a medium-level religiosity (see Table 6). b. Countries that are those with a high level of religiosity. c. Countries that have strong Christian Democratic elements in the party system. ists to the Christlich-Demokratische Union. In Italy, the Democrazia Cristiana Italiana pursued a more conservative policy than those parties to the left of it. In the Netherlands, the Christen Demokratisch Appel, in government with either the liberals or the social democrats, also maintained a conservative position but was hindered by its coalition partner from putting a restrictive policy into practice. Likewise, a more liberal ruling was blocked by the Demokratisch Appel. Finally, in the United States, the Republican party, under the growing influence of the New Christian Right movement of mostly Protestant fundamentalists, dropped its liberal position on abortion in the late 1970s and can now be considered by and large an antiabortion party (see Eser & Koch, 1988; Minkenberg, 1990; Rolston & Eggert, 1994; Rucht, 1994). When contrasting the abortion policies with the role and strength of religion in party politics, some interesting patterns emerge (see Table 9). First of all, the most restrictive policies exist in countries in which religious partisan impact is rather limited. The interaction of confessional path dependence, religiosity, and the separation of church and state play a more important role here than do religiously oriented parties. This holds true also for the United States, where the strong presence of the New Christian Right has not resulted in overturning the liberal model—some modifications notwithstanding. Accordingly, a high religious partisan impact taken by itself does not result in a restrictive abortion policy. Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 Minkenberg / RELIGION AND PUBLIC POLICY 243 But religious partisan impact is mediated through confessional characteristics, levels of religiosity, and type of party. Among the eight countries in which such impact is high, those with low levels of religiosity apply the period model. The prominent role of Protestant parties in the Nordic countries obviously did not undo their liberal abortion policies, which suggests a political rather than religious identity of these parties and the strength of the confessional impact vis-à-vis specific political actors. But the remaining five cases are those with a medium to high level of religiosity and a high Christian Democratic impact. All countries with a strong Christian Democracy employ the moderate abortion policy of the distress model, regardless of their churchstate arrangements or the role of Catholicism, a finding that underscores that Christian Democracy, as in the case of welfare state regimes, brings about policies of a rather specific nature (van Kersbergen, 1995). CONCLUSION This article has shown that even in the age of postmodernity, religion is still a force in the realm of politics, including policy making. Unlike mere functionalist accounts, which hold that the liberalization of abortion is a manifestation of a comprehensive secularization process, a more nuanced concept of secularization allows us to see a distinct impact of religious values on public policy. In general, secularization as institutional differentiation matters less than secularization as disenchantment and cultural pluralization. In light of the debate between secularists and religious economists, a supplyside-inspired argument postulating that political deregulation, that is, strict separation of church and state, has a particularly strong impact on abortion policy could not be verified. Variations in church-state relations alone do not produce identifiable patterns of policy outputs in the chosen area. In contrast, a cultural or values-oriented approach, postulating a persisting influence of confessional values and a high relevance of individual religiosity, proved more powerful in explaining religious impact on public policy. When the confessional factor is held constant, institutional impact increases somewhat. The comparative analysis has largely confirmed what has been shown for other policy areas, that is, a “Catholic cultural impact” (Castles, 1998). The confessional pattern set earlier in a nation’s history is an important factor for explaining the effects of religion on politics. Unsurprisingly, Catholic countries produce less than fully liberal abortion policies. But it is not only religious, in particular, Catholic, doctrine but also confession coupled with religiosity, that is, current religious beliefs and practices, that account for most of the differences. At one end of the spectrum, Catholicism in combination with Downloaded from cps.sagepub.com at PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV on March 4, 2016 244 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / March 2002 high levels of religiosity results in the most restrictive abortion policies. At the other, Protestantism and low levels of religiosity lead to the most liberal abortion policies. In all countries with a strong Christian Democratic partisan impact, a moderate abortion model has emerged reflecting a particular policy profile of Christian Democracy in association with a larger and distinct vision of society (see van Kersbergen, 1995). The evidence also sheds some light on the role and impact of the Catholic Church in postmodern societies, which depends on the path of secularization; it is most powerful where institutional differentiation has progressed most but level of religiosity has remained high. This underlines Casanova’s (1994) assertion that the political role of churches is most legitimate and effective when they operate not as privileged political institutions but as “deprivatized” society-oriented, rather than stateoriented, churches. To the extent that modernization trends such as further individualization, pluralization, and loss of authority continue in Western societies, one might expect a decline of traditional religious beliefs and practices, even in societies in which levels of religiosity are still comparatively high, and thus a decline of religious impact on public policy. But political change, in the sense of changes in public policy toward a liberalization of abortion, has been shown to be culturally path dependent. The politics of abortion reflects an institutionalization of religious values that has survived secularization. Moreover, general levels of subjective religiosity remain rather stable (see Inglehart & Baker, 2000). 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