The Office of Infrastructure Protection
National Protection and Programs Directorate
Department of Homeland Security
Casco Bay Region Climate Change Adaptation RRAP
2016 Maine Sustainability & Water Conference
March 29, 2016
[CAVEAT]
Regional Resiliency Assessment
Program
 The Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) began
in 2009 as a pilot program out of efforts to assess the security
of individual critical assets
 The goal of the RRAP is to identify opportunities for regional
homeland security officials and critical infrastructure partners
to strengthen resilience to all hazards
 The RRAP process identifies critical infrastructure security and
resilience gaps; dependencies; interdependencies; cascading
effects; and State, local, tribal, and territorial government
capability gaps
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
1
Climate Change Adaptation and the
RRAP
 As a part of the DHS’ efforts to address climate issues, the
Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection chose the
Casco Bay Region of Maine as the focus for one of the ten
Fiscal Year 2014 RRAP projects
 The Casco Bay Region Climate Change Adaptation Planning
RRAP is the first to focus on climate change adaptation
 Goals:
 Assess the climate change adaptation planning and coordination
already underway in the region
 Identify opportunities for State and local officials to strengthen
those efforts, specifically as they relate to critical infrastructure and
its dependencies and interdependencies
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
2
Casco Bay Region RRAP Objectives
 Identify gaps in our understanding of regional or sector-specific
issues related to climate change impacts to critical
infrastructure resilience
 Provide data, including climate change impact projections, and
develop methodologies to help regional stakeholders better
understand and manage the risks associated with extreme
weather and other impacts of climate change
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
3
Casco Bay Region RRAP Objectives
(cont.)
 Conduct data-collection activities—such as open-source
research, interagency coordination, subject matter expert
interviews, and facilitated discussion workshops—to address
identified data requirements
 Provide technical assistance for the development of climate
change adaptation plans and strategies
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
4
Workshop Focus Questions
 Are there critical nodes in the lifeline functions that could be
impacted by climate change?
 Are there critical dependencies or interdependencies that
could be affected by the projected impacts?
 Does your organization have existing adaptation plans or
strategies?
 What are the barriers that prevent active and effective
adaptation planning?
 What does your organization need to move forward with its
adaptation planning efforts?
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
5
Resiliency Assessment
 Presents results of the
assessment phase of the
RRAP in the form of Key
Findings and Resilience
Enhancement Options
 Sets the stage for follow-on
Implementation Activities
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
6
Implementation Activities
 Regional climate modeling
 Intensity duration frequency (IDF) curve development
 Collection of radar-based rainfall data
 Storm surge modeling
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
8
Regional Climate Modeling
 Climate model downscaling uses a regional climate model to
“translate” global climate model outputs at the regional scale
 Increased spatial resolution of climate model output: 1- to 2degree grids (global scale) to 1/8-degree grids (regional scale)
 Regional downscaling involves using Argonne’s
supercomputing facility to perform multiple runs of a regional
climate model
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
8
Regional Climate Modeling (cont.)
 Produces projections of the
following:
 Average and maximum
annual precipitation
 Average and maximum
annual temperature
 Other climate stressors
identified by stakeholders
 Multiple time slices: mid
century, end of century
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
9
Regional Climate Modeling (cont.)
RRAP Analysis Year Activities
 Presented regional climate modeling output during RRAP
workshops
 Used data to inform preliminary analysis of the vulnerability of
electric infrastructure to increasing temperatures
Implementation Tasks
 Conduct a climate modeling webinar that includes Argonne
climate scientists and RRAP partners (University of Maine and
State of Maine climatologist) to discuss available data and any
necessary data modifications to address regional needs
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
10
Regional Climate Modeling (cont.)
Implementation Tasks (cont.)
 Transfer climate data to University of Maine’s Climate Change
Institute and Climate Adaptation and Sustainability
platform/Climate Reanalyzer
 Develop climate model tutorial for use by
 Infrastructure planners/designers to inform future projects in the
region and throughout Maine
 University of Maine climate researchers
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
11
Using Climate Information
Decisionmaking and Impact Research
 In collaboration with Texas Tech, the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Arizona State University, and the
University of Illinois‒Urbana-Champaign, Argonne is
developing a user manual for using downscaled climate data
 The manual will provide planners and decision makers with:
 Critical overview of relevant downscaling models, methodologies,
and data
 Advantages and disadvantages of each method
 Geographical dependence of bias for each method (e.g.,
systematic under- or over-prediction of climate impacts)
 Uncertainties associated with the downscaling process and
climate data in general
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
12
Climate Model Users
Agencies/Projects That Will Benefit
 Maine State Climatologist–projections will enable office to
provide information to better inform consistent climate change
planning across the State
 Maine Department of Environmental Protection–projected
rainfall data will improve hydrological models and inform
watershed management decisions
 Regional and municipal water utilities–projected rainfall and
extreme temperature data (e.g., drought potential) could
inform municipal water management practices, particularly
drought planning
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
13
Climate Model Users (cont.)
Agencies/Projects That Will Benefit
 Climate impact modeling efforts–high-resolution, regional
climate model output data could serve as the foundation for
other climate impact modeling efforts, such as storm surge
and inland flood modeling, runoff models (e.g., IDF curves),
agricultural/crop impact models, and infrastructure impact
models
 National benefits if tutorial and data are featured on the
Climate Resilience Toolkit and/or used to inform future DHS
climate change efforts
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
14
IDF Curves
Need for Runoff IDF Curves
 Precipitation frequency is not necessarily similar to flood
frequency
 Effect of drainage characteristics of the watershed, including
human roles
 Effect of snowfall and snowmelt
 The most extreme precipitation events (or heaviest 1 percent
of all daily events) have increased in every region of the
contiguous states since the 1950s
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
15
IDF Curves (cont.)
Need for Runoff IDF Curves
Courtesy of National Climate Assessment Report, 2014
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
16
IDF Curve Development
 Argonne has provided
hydrologic analyses in support
of U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) projects
 Hydrologic safety analyses for
proposed facilities
 Flooding re-evaluations in
response to Fukushima
 River flooding scenarios,
including dam failure
 Local intense precipitation
Courtesy of NRC file photo
 Coastal flooding
mechanisms
 Site inspections
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
17
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
“Next-Generation” Precipitation IDF Curves
 Cities/regions require improved understanding of:
 Non-uniform spatial and temporal distribution of potential climateinduced changes in intensity and the variability of extreme events
 Potential adaptation responses to these changes
 Why IDF curves?
 Widely used to develop the design basis for precipitation-affected
infrastructure systems, engineering standards, building codes, and
maintenance standards
 Improve adaptive responses and resilience to extreme events
 Address infrastructure management challenges
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
18
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
Improvements to the Current IDF Curves and their Applications
Source: Argonne National Laboratory
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
19
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
 IDF curves provide a graphic
representation of the
likelihood that a rainfall event
of a given intensity will
occur; this representation is
necessary when designing
drainage systems and
hydraulic structures (e.g.,
culverts, bridge piers)
Source: State of Maine Urban & Arterial
Highway Design Guide (2005)
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
20
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
 Location- and watershed-specific
 Different curves used for rainfall vs. runoff
 Maine Department of Transportation (DOT) specifies designing for
the 50-year storm event for culverts and 10-year event for pavement
drainage
 Climate change may cause shift in intensity of storms  50-year
storm may become more intense in future
 Projected rainfall and runoff IDF curves will enable today’s designs to
remain robust in the future
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
21
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
RRAP Analysis Year Activities
 Regional climate modeling produced preliminary precipitation
projections for Casco Bay Region
Implementation Tasks
 Develop IDF curves using historical precipitation data
 Perform uncertainty analysis for IDF curves
 Apply Task 1 and 2 methods for future climate projections and
develop IDF curves incorporating future projections
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
22
IDF Curve Development (cont.)
Implementation Tasks (cont.)
 Construct and calibrate
hydrologic model for Casco
Bay watershed
 Perform stochastic
simulation to generate
runoff IDF curves using the
calibrated hydrologic model
 Develop rainfall IDF curves
 Develop runoff IDF
curves
Source: Casco Bay Estuary Partnership
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
23
IDF Curve Users
Agencies/Projects That Will Benefit
 Maine DOT–IDF curves could directly inform hydraulic design
and could be integrated into a hydraulic design manual,
potentially influencing hundreds of future transportation
projects
 Maine Geological Survey–IDF rainfall and runoff curves could
be disseminated broadly for use at municipal and local levels
 City/town/local storm water and wastewater managers–IDF
curves could inform design of future systems or management
and upgrade of current drainage systems
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
24
IDF Curve Users (cont.)
Agencies/Projects That Will Benefit
 Maine Department of Environmental Protection and
watershed managers–hydrological model and IDF runoff
curves could inform watershed management
 Land developers/civil engineers–rainfall IDF curves could help
ensure adequate drainage for future developments
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
25
Radar-Based Rainfall Data
Argonne is exploring the use
of radar systems belonging to
the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and the Federal
Aviation Administration (FAA)
to provide data on high-spatialand high-temporal-resolution
historical precipitation events
Source: Argonne National Laboratory
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
26
Radar-Based Rainfall Data (cont.)
These NOAA and FAA data will:
 Provide much more complete precipitation records (every 10
minutes)
 Cover greater spatial extents (continuous 400-m grid) of
historical rainfall
 Prove useful in informing regional climate modeling
 Potentially aid in IDF curve development
 Potentially prove useful for officials in urban areas to gain a
highly detailed understanding of rainfall events for the last 25
years
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
27
Radar-Based Rainfall Data (cont.)
Current Radar Data Sources
Source: NOAA
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
28
Radar-Based Rainfall Data (cont.)
Current Radar Data Sources
 NOAA radar provides high-fidelity precipitation estimates, but
lower spatial resolution
 FAA radar produces lower-quality precipitation estimates, but
much higher spatial resolution
 Conditioning FAA data using NOAA results can leverage the
strengths of both
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
29
Radar-Based Rainfall Data (cont.)
RRAP Analysis Year Activities
 Argonne has developed and demonstrated radar-based
rainfall data collection in the Chicago area and others
Implementation Tasks
 Develop a set of rainfall retrieval data for the Casco Bay
Region and validate data using local rain gages
 Construct and calibrate an urban hydrological model for the
Casco Bay Region
 Present results of the retrieval data and urban hydrological
model to DHS and stakeholders
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
30
Radar-Based Rainfall Data Users
Agencies/Projects that will Benefit
 Maine Geological Survey–rainfall data could be used to
calibrate/update hydrological models to inform watershed
management and IDF curve development
 State Climatologist–radar-based rainfall data would provide a
more detailed record of historical rainfall in Maine
 University of Maine–historical rainfall data could be hosted on the
University’s Climate Reanalyzer website for public information or
for use in high-resolution comparisons of historical and projected
rainfall across Maine
 Other climate modeling efforts–high-resolution historical rainfall
data with greater spatial coverage could be used to calibrate
regional climate models (i.e., produce regionally relevant
precipitation projections)
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
31
Storm Surge Modeling
 Projected sea level rise in the region will amplify the effects of
storm surge
 Increasing storm inundation areas
 Increasing wave action impacts
 Maine infrastructure and coastal infrastructure that is
vulnerable to inundation will experience increased loading
associated with storm surge waves
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
32
Storm Surge Modeling (cont.)
Source: National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
33
Storm Surge Modeling (cont.)
Work to Date
 The National Center for Computational Hydroscience and
Engineering developed three nested model resolutions (fine,
medium, coarse) for preliminary storm surge analysis of an
extreme, Sandy-like hurricane
 These models produced data on hydrodynamics (e.g., wave
height and direction), sediment transport (e.g., erosion), and
wind field (e.g., speed and direction)
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
34
Storm Surge Modeling (cont.)
Work to Date
Level 3: Fine
Gulf of Maine grid
Level 2: Medium
Portland ME grid
East-Coast grid
Level 1: Coarse
Saco River grid
Source: National Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
35
Storm Surge Modeling (cont.)
RRAP Analysis Year Activities
 Water level and storm surge data were converted to a raster
format for display using geographic information system
software
 KMZ (keyhole markup language zipped) files were developed
for display on Google Earth
 Improved versions of the raster files were generated that will
serve as standard files that will be used to extract water
surface elevations and flow depths at the locations of the
identified critical infrastructures
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
36
Storm Surge Modeling (cont.)
Implementation Tasks
 Develop risk analysis for selected critical infrastructure assets
using simulation results
 Perform risk-based prioritization of critical assets based on
the probability and consequence of flooding
 Inform DHS Dependency Pilot Study
 Develop final project report, including:
 Risk analysis results
 Data protocol for engineering design purposes
 Use results to inform Portland resilience and adaptation
projects
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
338
Storm Surge Modeling Users
Agencies/Projects that Will Benefit
 Coastal infrastructure managers–storm surge inundation data
and wave impact data would benefit private companies and
public agencies in charge of managing coastal and marine
infrastructure (e.g., wharfs, docks, port facilities) in their
infrastructure adaptation planning and design
 Maine DOT and railway owner/operators–storm surge
inundation and wave loading data could inform the
management, planning, and design of coastal transportation
infrastructure, particularly bridges and drainage facilities
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
38
Storm Surge Modeling Users (cont.)
Agencies/Projects that Will Benefit
 Land developers and civil engineers–storm surge inundation
and flooding data would be useful in planning for future land
development and aid engineers in designing infrastructure
within potential future coastal inundation zones
 Maine Department of Environmental Protection and
watershed managers–storm surge modeling could enable
improved watershed management activities
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
39
Region 1 Energy RRAP
 Builds on Maine RRAP
 Assess storm surge impacts on
electric infrastructure throughout
New England
 Consider flood risk due to sea
level rise combined with more
intense overland precipitation
events
Source: Argonne National Laboratory
 Identify high-consequence
failure points and potential
cascading failure scenarios
within the region’s electric
infrastructure
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
40
Regional Climate System Assessment
Framework
Source: Argonne National Laboratory
Presenter’s Name
June 17, 2003
41
For more information, visit:
www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure
Bill DeLong
Protective Security Advisor - Maine
[email protected]