Portland
Economic
Indicators
QUALITYINFO.ORG
Employment Growth - Nov 2014
Unemployment Rate - Portland Metro
10.1%
10%
Portland
Portland
US
US
2.7%
8.9%
Recent years have seen a steady decline in the
regional unemployment rate of about one point a
year since the peak of the recession. That downward trend continues, but appears to be slowing
significantly as the rate approaches 6 percent.
Meanwhile the US rate has dropped dramatically
over the last 12 months from seven to 5.8 percent.
2.6%
2.1%
7.9%
8%
Labor Trends
Increase on a year earlier
November 2010 - November 2014
6.8%
1.8%
1.6%
The US economy is now creating jobs at a rate
of two percent annually. While job growth in the
Portland region for the last two years has been
noticeably stronger.
6.5%
6%
4%
2014
2010
Forecasting Job Growth
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve surveys professional economic forecasters four times a year
on a range of economic indicators. The most
recent report sees continuing strong growth in
the US of about 200,000 new jobs a month
through 2015.
2011
2012
2013
2014
US Monthly Job Growth Forecast
Employment Services Growth
Thousands of Jobs - Philadelphia Fed Reserve
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Portland Metro Region : 2008 to 2014
250
19%
200
Locally, one of the best leading economic indicators we have of employment trends is the staffing
industry itself. Historically, the “Employment
Services” industry has been very sensitive to
momentum shifts in the larger economy. Employers shed temporary workers quickly at the beginning of a recession and tend to hire them in large
numbers early in economic recoveries.
9% 9%
100
2004
50
2010
2013
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q4
Q1 2015
Q3
Q1 2013
Q2
0
-26%
Residential Permits
Portland Metro Region - 1998 to 2014
2014 is Imputed
12,789
Single Family
12,000
Multi Family
10,000
8,000
7,074
6,000
4,666
5,502
4,000
3,011
2,000
2006
2010
Residential Building Permits is a classic leading
economic indicator. When real estate developers
feel confident in the future of a community, they
build new residential construction. The first step
in that investment is a building permit.
The outlook here is good, but with a new twist.
Single family home construction has stabilized at
about half the level that we saw historically. Condo and apartment construction supplied all of the
growth in 2014 and is now at historically high
levels. If single family construction remains flat
for the near future, the region will depend on
starting new high rise projects at record levels to
maintain housing growth.
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925
-
2002
2007
8%
-6%
-10%
Residential Building Permits
1998
5% 4% 4%
5%
150
The current surge of job growth in Employment
Services is a good sign for the near future in our
region.
14,000
2014 is Imputed
300
Q4
2013
Q1 2014
2012
Q3
2011
Q2
2010
2014
Christian Kaylor
[email protected]