Revised
SAVING IN THE WORLD:
STYLIZED FACTS
Norman Loayza
Humberto López
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Luis Servén
November 1998
Abstract
The world’s average saving rate has declined for the last two decades but country saving
rates exhibit a large dispersion, especially in developing regions. While in a small
number of developing countries saving has risen substantially (together with growth),
saving has stagnated or even declined in most other developing countries. Countries that
save more exhibit, on average, more stable saving rates over time. Country saving rates
tend to rise with per capita real income levels and growth rates, domestic investment,
public saving, money stocks, and private financial wealth. However substantial
heterogeneity in correlations between saving and related variables is observed between
industrial and developing countries. These and other findings on the performance of
national, private, and household saving in industrial and developing economies are
documented in this paper.
JEL class.: E21, O16.
López, Loayza, and Servén: DECRG, The World Bank; Schmidt-Hebbel: Central Bank of Chile.
We are grateful to Mita Chakraborty, George Monokroussos, and Douglas Smith for excellent
research assistance.
1
1. Introduction
The world’s average saving rate has been declining since the first oil shock and
through the early 1990s. However this trend conceals a large and increasing dispersion of
saving rates, particularly among developing countries. The large heterogeneity in saving
behavior is associated to country and time differences in levels of development, growth
performance, and fiscal and financial policies.
This paper provides a detailed statistical account of international trends in saving
and its association with saving-related variables. The data used here come from the
Saving Project World Database described in a companion paper (Loayza, López,
Schmidt-Hebbel, and Servén 1998). This dataset represents the largest and most
systematic collection to date of annual time-series on country saving and saving-related
variables. It is an unbalanced data pool spanning a maximum of 35 years (from 1960 to
1994) and 112 developing and 22 industrialized countries. Thus the facts documented
below are based on very large data samples; for instance, the number of available annual
country observations on the gross national saving rate is 3464.
Several previous saving studies have described world-wide saving trends.
Examples include Masson, Bayoumi, and Samiei (1995) and Schmidt-Hebbel and Servén
(1997, 1999), which have typically relied on smaller datasets and a smaller number of
variants with regard to saving measures and saving-related variables, as well as time and
regional aggregation. In this paper we exploit the Saving Project World Database by
describing trends and correlations based on: (i) different saving aggregates (national,
public, private, household, and corporate), (ii) different public saving measures (central
government and public sector, with and without adjustment for capital gains due to
inflation), (iii) different world regions and country groups, (iv) different summary
statistics (unweighted averages, medians, GNP-weighted averages, and measures of
dispersion), and (v) a large set of saving-related variables and potential saving
determinants.
This paper is meant to be descriptive and focuses on time trends and pairwise
correlations based. In a separate paper, the same database is used to estimate saving
models in a multivariate framework (Loayza, Schmidt-Hebbel, and Servén 1998). This
paper is organized as follows. Section 2 of this paper briefly discusses the issues of data
coverage and definitions -- we refer to our companion paper for a detailed description of
the data. In Section 3, we focus on the time trends observed in different saving measures
during the last three decades in the world at large as well as in relevant country groups
and regions. Section 4 examines the association between various saving measures and
saving-related variables, both across countries and over time, using pairwise correlations.
Section 5 concludes briefly. A separate Annex (available on request) presents figures on
time trends and bi-variate correlations that complement the information in the tables
included in the main text.
2
2. Data definitions and coverage
2.1 Income and saving measures
Our preferred measure of aggregate income, consistent with gross national saving,
is gross national disposable income inclusive of all current and capital transfers from
abroad (GNDI). Gross national saving (GNS) is defined accordingly, as the difference
between GNDI and aggregate (private and public) consumption expenditure. Both
variables are in current-price units of national currency. These comprehensive measures
dominate both the related variables that exclude transfers and the corresponding domestic
variables that reflect geographical boundaries (Gross domestic saving and GDP). The
rationale for our choice is that the national variables inclusive of all transfers are more
relevant to the agents or sectors for which we identify specific saving hypotheses and
determinants. In fact the national sector simply represents the aggregation of the private
and public sectors. Thus GNS/GNDI is the relevant aggregate or national saving rate (in
current prices) used in this paper.1
At the government level, four saving measures are used, corresponding to the
combinations of two alternative government coverage definitions (consolidated central
government and public sector) and two alternative statistical measures (unadjusted and
adjusted for capital gains from inflation). Gross private saving (GPS) is obtained
residually by subtracting any of the four previous government saving measures from
national saving. Hence there are four residual private-sector saving (and income)
measures that can be derived. We denote them respectively: CU (central government,
unadjusted), CA (central government, adjusted), PU (public sector, unadjusted), and PA
(public sector, adjusted). The coverage of these series varies. The preferred measures for
government and private saving are the PA measures, which better capture the saving
effort of the relevant economic unit. GPS/GPDI represents the private saving rate, where
GPDI is the gross private disposable income measure consistent with the selected
definition of GPS. GPDI itself is computed as GNDI minus the relevant definition of
government saving plus public consumption expenditure.
A disaggregation of net private sector saving between corporate and household
saving is used for a smaller available sample.
All saving variables (and the corresponding income measures used as the
denominator to construct saving ratios) are in current prices. Consumption and
investment data (and the corresponding ratios) are in constant prices.
1
For a discussion of measurement issues and problems that affect aggregate saving data see SchmidtHebbel and Servén (1999), chap. 2.
3
2.2 Country and time coverage
Country aggregation is defined in terms of country groups and geographical
regions. The five country groups are: industrial OECD countries (IND), China (alone),
other takeoff developing countries, other developing countries, and the world. Takeoff
countries are defined a priori as those developing countries that have achieved high and
sustained saving and growth rates during the last two decades.2
The country regions are defined as: industrial OECD (IND), China, other East
Asia and Pacific (EAP), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa
(SSA), South Asia (SA), and Latin America and Caribbean (LAC).
Time coverage is dictated by data availability within the period 1960-94. The
starting year of the data varies across countries, but is dated mostly between 1960 and
1975.
We use three different samples: the fixed and the full sample for national and
private saving data, and a smaller household sample for data on household saving.3 The
fixed sample is comprised of a total of 85 countries, distributed by country regions and
country groups. Each country in a specific region has a full sample of annual
observations for every year from the starting year for each region (for instance, 1960 for
each IND country or 1967 for each LAC country) through 1994. In other words, each
region in the fixed sample is a balanced panel even though the fixed sample is not. The
85 countries distributed by the seven country regions are summarized in Box 1.
2
This group includes China (considered separately) and 9 market economies: Hong Kong, Indonesia,
Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan (China), and Thailand in East Asia; Mauritius in Africa; and Chile in
Latin America. Botswana -- another high-saving and high-growth economy -- has been excluded from
our sample because of lack of acceptable data.
3
Due to data problems or lack of data, the following ten countries are omitted from all three samples:
Bhutan, Brazil, Israel, Nicaragua, the unified post-1991 Germany, United Arab Emirates, Zambia, Somalia,
Gabon, and Yemen (former Arab Republic of).
4
Box 1
Distribution of Countries in the Fixed Sample by Regions
The seven “regional” groups are the following:
IND: 1960-1994.
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain,
Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States (22 countries).
China: 1966-1994.
EAP (without China): 1966-94.
Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan
(China), and Thailand (9 countries).
MENA: 1967-1994.
Algeria, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and Turkey
(9 countries).
SA: 1968-1994.
India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka (3 countries).
SSA: 1970-1994.
Cote d’Ivoire, Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Gambia, Ghana,
Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda,
Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Togo, and Uganda (20 countries).
LAC: 1967-1994.
Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and
Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela (18 countries).
The three developing-country groups are the following:
All developing countries: 1970-1994 (63 countries, including China).
Take-off developing countries: 1970-1994 (9 countries, without China).
Non take-off LDCs (53 countries, without China): 1970-94.
5
Box 2
Sample Sizes
GNS/GNDI
GPS/GPDI (PA)
Fixed Sample
Countries
Years
Country-years
82
25-35
2665
60
25-35
1427
Full Sample
Countries
Years
Country-years
126
2-35
3160
82
4-35
1700
Household Sample
Countries
Years
Country-years
NHHS/GPDI
31
5-32
644
The full sample comprises the fixed sample, all annual country observations that
are available before the start of the fixed sample periods, and all annual observations for
any available years for countries excluded from the fixed sample. Hence the full sample
is unbalanced also at the regional level. Finally the household sample comprises a much
smaller unbalanced data panel for net household saving. The number of countries, years
and country-year observations for each sample is summarized in Box 2.4
Tables 1.1 through 4.3 report summary statistics – averages, medians, and
measures of dispersion – of saving rates and related variables for country regions and
country groups. The first digit of table numbers (1, 2, 3, and 4) denotes respectively
information for gross national saving, gross private saving, net household (and/or
corporate) saving, and aggregate demand components. The summary information
reported in the tables is based on the above mentioned samples for the latter variables.
4
The unbalanced panel of 31 countries and 644 country-year observations is for net household saving data
(as used in tables 3.2 and 8, and in figures 3.2 and 8.1-8.10). For both net household and net corporate
saving data (i.e., for disaggregated net private saving) a smaller sample is available, comprising 31
countries and 580 country-year observations (as used in Table 3.1 and Figure 3.1). An even smaller sample
of 430 country-year observations (not used in this paper) is available in the World Bank Saving Database
for both gross household and corporate saving data (i.e., for a disaggregated gross private saving). Finally
note that total net private saving reported in Table 3.1 as “Sum” (of net household and corporate saving
figures) is different from any of the four measures of gross private saving reported elsewhere.
6
The tables are generally reported for both the comprehensive cross-country time-series (or
pooled-data) sample and the cross-country sample of country averages. In addition,
separate summary statistics are reported in most cases for three different sub-periods that
roughly correspond to decades before and after the first oil shock: 1965-73, 1974-84, and
1985-94. 5
Tables 5-8 report full-sample correlations between each of four saving variables
(national saving, private saving CU, private saving PA, and net household saving,
respectively) and a number of saving-related variables, among them potential saving
determinants. Correlations are reported for three country regions in both the panel and
long-run cross-section samples. Table 9 reports full-sample correlations among savingrelated variables for both the world panel and world long-run cross-section samples.
3.
Saving trends and facts
Next we discuss the main regional and world saving trends and cross-regional
saving differences, complemented by some information on consumption and investment
trends.
On the basis of the information described earlier, we can identify several stylized
facts and trends concerning saving across the world:
(1)
The world’s average national saving rate has declined since the early 1970s.
(Tables 1.1 - 1.2; figures 1.1 - 1.4c)
The world’s average gross national saving rate (the ratio of gross national saving to gross
national disposable income, GNS/GNDI) has been declining for the last three decades.
Looking across decades, the median (fixed-sample) world saving rate fell from 20.7% in
1965-73 to 20.3% in 1974-84, and further to 18.7% in 1985-94. Indeed, the world saving
rate attained a peak of 23% in 1973-74, at the time of the first oil shock. From then on it
declined steadily to reach a trough of 18% in 1992-93. This trend is consistently observed
across different statistics (medians, unweighted averages, GNP-weighted averages),
samples (fixed and full), and aggregate saving measures (national and domestic).6
(2)
Saving rates show a large international dispersion.
5
Note that the data reported for the first sub-period (1965-73) comprise only observations that are
consistent with the corresponding country or region group (for example, SSA observations start only in
1970). Also note that the summary statistics for the pooled-data sample, for example the medians, are
calculated from the full pool of data for the corresponding period. For instance SSA’s median saving rate
for 1965-73 is the median of all corresponding observations for all countries during this period -- it is not
the median of each country’s median or mean.
6
Recent and incomplete data for the years after 1994 (not reported in this paper) suggest that a possible
break is observed after 1992-93, as many countries have adopted more orthodox fiscal policies reflected in
higher public and hence higher national saving rates. This is the case of European countries working
toward meeting Maastricht criteria for monetary union and Latin American countries strengthening their
macroeconomic policies. Time will tell if this is starting a sustained trend break from the past trend decline
in saving rates.
7
(Tables 1.1 – 3.2)
In the fixed pooled-data sample, the standard deviation of GNS/GNDI is 9.2%,
with the minimum at –30.6% and the maximum at 77.9%. This reflects a huge variation
across space and time, with the bulk of the variability stemming from the cross-section
dimension. If we control for time variation by focusing on the cross-country sample, the
standard deviation of the saving rate declines to 7.6%, with the minimum long-run
country saving rate at 3.7% and the maximum at 38%.7 This large dispersion reflects
mostly a large variance of saving rates among developing countries. By contrast, saving
rates are much more homogeneous across industrial countries (as shown by the
considerably lower standard deviation for this sample). Similar differences are observed
in the case of the gross private saving rate (the ratio of gross private saving to gross
private disposable income, GPS/GPDI) and the net household saving rate (the ratio of net
household saving to gross private disposable income, NHS/GPDI).
(3)
Saving rates show divergent patterns across developing regions.
(Tables 1.1 - 1.2; figures 1.0 - 1.4c)
The median (fixed-sample) GNS rate in developing countries rose from 16.7% in
1965-73 to 19.0% in 1974-84, declining subsequently to 17.7% in 1985-94. However,
this aggregate behavior disguises widely different and even diverging saving patterns
within the developing world. Saving rates have risen rapidly in China and the nine other
takeoff countries since the 1970s. In fact, the median national saving ratio in the nine
takeoff countries increased gradually and systematically from 20% in 1970-1972 to 34%
in 1992-94. China’s already high saving rate (at 29% during 1970-77) was boosted by the
economic reforms started in 1978, rising to 41% in 1993-94.
By contrast, saving rates in other developing countries and regions stagnated or
even declined during the last three decades. The divergent saving trends between takeoff
and non-takeoff countries was also reflected across regional aggregates. As takeoff
economies are highly represented in the East Asia and Pacific region, the latter’s median
saving rate (fixed sample) shows a spectacular rise from 20% in 1966-68 to 33% in 199294. South Asia’s median saving rate also shows a substantial rise, from 15% in 1968-70
to 22% in 1992-94. In Latin America and the Caribbean the median national saving rate
does not show a clear trend (it hovers around an average 16% during 1967-94) but shows
swings, increasing after the first oil shock (1973-80) and declining with the debt crisis
(1982-84). Nor is a clear trend observed in the Middle East and North Africa although
swings – correlated with the price of oil – are observed in this region around its 1967-94
median saving rate of 22%. In Sub-Saharan Africa the median saving rate declines
precipitously from 14% in 1970-76 to a trough of 10% in 1980-86 but recovers to the
14% level in 1987-94. Notwithstanding this recovery, SSA’s saving rate is the lowest
across all regions.
7
The dispersion measures in the full sample (Table 1.2) are similar to those in the fixed sample (Table 1.1).
8
(4)
Industrial-country saving rates have declined strongly since the early 1970s.
(Tables 1.1 - 1.2; figures 1.0 - 1.4c)
The median (fixed-sample) GNS rate in industrial countries increased gradually
from 25% in the early 1960s to a historical peak of 27.5% in 1972-73, just before the first
oil shock. Since then, it has declined systematically, falling to a (median) level of 19% in
1993-94.
(5)
Average saving rates are negatively correlated with standard deviations of
saving rates over time
(Tables 1.1, 2.3, and 3.2; figures 1.5, 2.10, 2.11, and 3.2)
Countries with lower saving rates also show a larger dispersion over time in their
saving rates. For instance, while the unweighted average (fixed-sample) GNS rate in
industrial countries attained 23.4% in 1965-94, the standard deviation over the same
period of industrial-country saving rates was on average 5.5%. However in developing
countries the unweighted average (fixed-sample) GNS rate was 18.1% in 1965-94, with
an average standard deviation of 10.2%. Therefore the coefficient of variation of saving
(the ratio of its standard deviation and its average) attained 0.56, more than twice the
level of 0.24 observed in industrial economies. A similar negative correlation between
first and second moments is observed in the case of gross private saving rates, but not in
the case of net household saving rates. This reflects that low-saving countries show a
dismal saving behavior not only in their low saving effort but also in their high saving
volatility.
(6)
Developing-country public saving has been on the rise since the early 1980s.
(Table 2.1; figures 2.1-2.4)
Public saving is low in both industrial and developing countries – typically
between one-tenth and one-fourth of aggregate national saving. The median (fixedsample) public saving rate in developing countries was halved between the late 1970s and
early 1980s. Since then fiscal adjustment has been successful in raising public saving
rates back to (or surpassing) their previous peaks. This trend is common to the four
different public saving measures although their levels differ considerably from each other.
Unadjusted central government saving stood at only 2% of GNDI in the early 1990s while
the adjusted public sector saving measure attained 7% in the early 1990s. The data shows
that approximately half of the difference between both measures is due to higher saving
by the non-central government levels of the public sector (as reflected by the difference
between CU and PU, or between CA and PA saving levels) while the other half reflects
capital gains from inflation, that lead to higher adjusted central government or public
saving levels (the difference between CU and CA, or between PU and PA saving levels).
(7)
Industrial-country public saving has declined significantly since 1975.
(Table 2.1; figures 2.1-2.4)
9
The median (fixed-sample) public saving rate in industrial OECD countries fell
steadily from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, recovered partly in the late 1980s, and
then fell precipitously to reach negative levels in 1992-93. As in the case of developing
countries, this trend is common to all four public saving measures.
(8)
Capital gains from inflation accruing to the public sector are of similar
magnitude in developing and industrial economies.
(Table 2.2)
Computing the difference between adjusted and unadjusted public (private) saving
yields the capital gain (loss) accruing to the public (private) sector due to inflation.8 In
the world at large the inflation tax thus computed has ranged from 1.1% to 1.5% of GNDI
during the last three decades, slightly larger in industrial than in developing countries.
However while the inflation tax shows a trend decline in industrial countries, it has
increased in developing countries during 1985-94.
(9)
Private saving has declined in developing countries.
(Tables 2.0, 2.1 and 2.3; figures 2.3 - 2.9)
Private saving is obtained residually from national saving and any one measure of
public saving. Whatever measure is used, the median private saving rate in developing
countries declined between 1974-84 and 1985-94. 9
As in the case of the national saving rate, the trend decline in private saving
conceals large differences within developing regions. During the last three decades the
regional median private saving rates increased substantially in East Asia and Pacific, the
Middle East and North Africa in South Asia, declined in Latin America and the
Caribbean, and fell precipitously in Sub-Saharan Africa.
(10)
Private saving is roughly constant in industrial countries.
(Tables 2.1 and 2.3; figures 2.3 - 2.9)
The median private saving rate in industrial countries remained virtually constant
during the last two decades – hovering around 23% when defined as consistent with
8
The calculation of the public (private) sector’s capital gains (loses) from inflation is based on the
outstanding stocks of central government or public-sector debt and the monetary base. Public-sector capital
gains from inflation exceed those to the central government if state-owned enterprises or sub-national levels
of government are net debtors to the private sector. Notice that the net capital gains from inflation reported
in Table 2.2 differ from the corresponding differences between adjusted and unadjusted saving rates
reported in Table 2.1 because of differences in samples.
9
Notice that the differences betwen regional median private saving rates (consistent with the PA definition)
reported in Tables 2.1 and 2.3 is due to the use of GNDI in Table 2.1 and GPDI in Table 2.3 as
denominators.
10
unadjusted central-government saving or just over 18% when defined as consistent with
adjusted public-sector saving.
(11) For our much smaller sample of net household and corporate saving rates, both
rates are larger in developing countries than in industrial economies.
(Table 3.1; figure 3.1)
Both household and corporate saving rates are generally higher in developing than
in industrial countries in our smaller sample for disaggregated net private saving rates.
For 1985-94 the median net household saving rate (as a ratio of gross private disposable
income) is 8.4% in developing and 6.7% in industrial countries. For the same decade the
regional median net corporate saving rate (as a ratio of gross private disposable income)
is 5.6% in developing and 3.9% in industrial economies.
(12) World private consumption ratios to GDP are stable over time but there are
differing trends across regions.
(Table 4.1; figures 4.1 - 4.1b)
Median private consumption to GDP ratios (at constant prices) do not show much
variation since 1970 -- for the world at large (at 64%), industrial countries (at 60%), and
other developing economies (71%). However private consumption ratios show
substantial declines in China and other takeoff countries, and in the regions of East Asia
and Pacific, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. In Sub-Saharan Africa
the median private consumption ratio to GDP rises during the last three decades. These
patterns are generally -- but not always -- consistent with the regional trends in private
saving rates. The differences in time trends between current-price private saving to
income ratios and constant-price private consumption to GDP ratios (for instance in Latin
America and the Caribbean) reflect trend changes in the relative price of consumption
(The ratio of the private consumption deflator relative to the GDP deflator) as well as
trend changes in the difference between GDP and gross private disposable income.
(13)
Private consumption levels generally follow random walk processes
In order to assess persistence of the time-series process of constant-price private
consumption (in levels, not as a ratio to GDP), for each country in the sample we
compute the persistence parameter corresponding to the spectral density at the zero
frequency. The average of the resulting point estimates of the persistence parameter and
its standard error, as well as the group average of the first-order autocorrelation
coefficients (of the first difference of consumption), are reported below for the world
sample as well as various regional groups.
World
Industrial
Persistence
parameter
1.05
1.55
Standard error
0.098
0.09
First autocorrelation
coefficient
0.04
0.34
11
China
EAP
MENA
LAC
SA
SSA
0.025
1.21
0.85
0.76
1.28
0.92
0.003
0.14
0.12
0.07
0.17
0.07
-0.22
0.13
-0.1
-0.07
0.06
-0.04
The estimates reveal that the spectral density at the zero frequency for real private
consumption is generally consistent with a random walk process (i.e., a persistence
parameter of 1), which in itself is consistent with the simple version of the permanentincome hypothesis for consumption. The estimate for the world sample is 1.05 (with a
standard error of 0.04) and not significantly different from 1. In four regions it is also not
significantly different from 1, also implying that the random-walk hypothesis cannot be
rejected. However the estimate is 1.55 (significantly larger than 1) for industrial
countries. In contrast, the estimate is 0.76 (significantly smaller than 1) for Latin
America and Caribbean, suggesting that consumption is stationary in the latter region.
Finally in China the persistence parameter estimate is extremely low (0.025), implying
consumption stationarity even more strongly than in LAC.
(14) World government consumption ratios are higher in industrial countries than
in developing countries.
(Table 4.2; figures 4.2 - 4.2b)
Median real government consumption ratios to GDP (at constant prices) have not
changed much at world or regional levels of aggregation. The median 1965-94 ratio is
12.4% in developing countries and significantly higher -- at 17.1% -- in industrial
countries. This is consistent with Wagner’s Law, the empirical observation that
government size tends to increase with per capita income levels.
(15)
World investment rates have declined since the early 1970s.
(Table 4.3; figures 4.3 - 4.3b)
The median world gross domestic investment ratio to GDP (at constant prices)
shows a steep decline after the seventies. This trend reduction is observed in both
industrial and other developing countries although the latter exhibited a temporary
investment boom during 1974-1982. By contrast median investment rates have increased
in takeoff countries (China) from 24% (30%) during 1970-74 to 36% (37%) in 1990-94.
4. Correlation between saving and related variables
Now we turn to the correlation between saving and key saving-related variables,
using both the long-run cross-country and cross-country time-series dimensions of the
data. Tables 5-8 report the correlation between a set of saving related variables and the
gross national saving rate (Table 5), the gross private saving rate (in two versions, Tables
6 and 7), and the net household saving rate (Table 8). The cross-correlations among
12
saving-related variables are reported in Table 9. Figures 5.1 through 8.10 in the Annex
depict cross-country, pair-wise correlations that supplement the correlation coefficients
reported in the tables.
Before turning to the specific results we want to point out two general findings.
First, in most cases the bi-variate correlations between saving rates and saving-related
variables are similar for the gross national saving rate and the gross private saving rate.
However they tend to be quite different for the much smaller sample of net household
saving rates. We attach more weight to the correlations observed between gross national
and private saving rates (on the one hand) and saving-related variables (on the other hand)
than to the correlations observed between the net household saving rate and related
variables, as the latter are based on a much smaller country sample.
Second, the cross-country correlations are typically larger in magnitude than the
pooled-data correlations -- an observation common to national, private, and household
saving rates. This suggests that the annual time-series data are noisier than the crosscountry observations.
The data reveal the following specific findings.
(i) Saving rates and income levels are positively correlated.
Most saving measures show a significant and positive cross-country correlation
with real per capita income levels. For the world sample, the correlation coefficients
between gross national saving rate (in Table 5) and the gross private saving rate (in tables
6 and 7), on the one hand, and real per capita income levels, on the other, are ca. 0.50 for
the cross-country sample and ca. 0.40 for the pooled-data sample and are significant at the
5% level. The correlations are higher in developing countries than in industrial
economies. For the household saving sample, however, the correlation is close to zero
(Table 8).
Fig. 5.1 confirms the correlation for the GNS rate at the cross-country level. The
figure also shows that takeoff developing countries are located at low to middle-income
levels with abnormally high saving rates. In contrast, industrial countries seem to
typically save less than what should be expected given their high income levels. This
suggests that the saving-income relation tapers off at high income levels. Non-takeoff
developing countries are clustered at low income and low saving levels. Separate
regression lines for developing and industrial economies confirm the cross-regional
heterogeneity in the saving-income relation, showing a larger positive correlation for
developing countries.
(ii) Saving rates and growth rates are positively correlated.
All saving measures show positive correlations with real per capita income
growth rates. For the world sample, the correlation coefficients between gross national
13
and gross private saving rates and real per capita growth rates are ca. 0.40 for the crosscountry sample and ca. 0.29 for the pooled-data sample and are significant at the 5%
level. The correlations between household saving and growth are lower, at ca. 0.37 and
0.17, respectively. As opposed to the preceding correlation between saving rates and
income levels, the saving-growth correlation is higher for industrial than for developing
economies.
Fig. 5.2 confirms the world correlation at the cross-country level. The figure also
shows that industrial economies are closely clustered at moderately high saving and
growth rates. Takeoff countries are clustered in the upper right-hand corner of the figures,
at very high saving and growth rates. Non-takeoff LDCs show a larger dispersion and
they are centered at low saving and growth rates.
(iii) National saving and domestic investment rates are positively correlated.
The correlation between the GNS rate and the gross domestic investment (GDI)
rate is large and significant -- ca. 0.70 for both the world at large and developing
countries, and close to 0.60 for industrial economies. For private saving the correlation is
lower. For household saving in industrial countries the correlation turns to be negative.
The high cross-country correlation between long-run national saving and gross
domestic investment rates is confirmed in Fig. 5.3. OECD countries are more frequently
located above the 45-degree line (along which the current account is balanced), reflecting
that they tend to be capital exporters, while most developing economies, that tend to be
capital importers, are located below the line.
(iv) National saving and public saving rates are positively correlated.
The correlation between the national saving rate and the public saving rate is
positive and high. For the world at large, the correlation coefficient is ca. 0.35 for the
central government unadjusted (CU) saving rate and ca. 0.40 for the public-sector
adjusted (PA) saving rate; both are significant at the 5% level . At the sub-sample levels
of developing and industrial countries, the correlations are even larger, in the range of
0.47 to 0.60. These figures suggest a partial offsetting of private-public saving levels, an
issue addressed next.
(v) The correlation between private and public saving rates are not robust across
different saving measures and regional samples.
Private and public saving rates, consistent with unadjusted measures for the
central government (CU), are mostly uncorrelated (with exception of a 0.13 correlation
for both the cross-country developing and industrial country sub-samples). The crosscountry correlations for private and public saving, consistent with adjusted measures for
14
the public sector (PA), are positive and moderate (but not significant at the 5% level),
ranging from 0.12 for the world sample to 0.22 for developing countries. At the
household level, the cross-country correlation is –0.4 for the world (significant at 5%
level), -0.58 for industrial economies (significant at 5% level), and –0.126 for developing
countries (not significant at 5% level). Therefore little can be concluded about privatepublic saving offset coefficients from these simple correlations.
(vi) Saving and the terms of trade are uncorrelated.
The correlation between saving rates and the terms of trade (the relative price of a
country’s exports and imports) is generally not significantly different from zero and
frequently changes sign across different saving measures and data samples.
(vii) The correlation between saving and the real interest rate is not robust across
different saving measures and samples.
The world correlation between national or private saving rates and the real interest
rate ranges from 0.31 to 0.34 (significant at a 5% level) at the cross-country level.
However it is much smaller for the pooled-data samples (and mostly negative for the
industrial countries). At the household level the cross-country correlation turns negative
and is ca. –0.35.
(viii) The correlation between saving and the inflation rate is not robust across
different saving measures and samples.
The correlation between saving rates and inflation rates displays a pattern that is
similar but of opposite sign to the one observed between saving and the real interest rate.
This would not be surprising when considering that the real interest rate is constructed as
the nominal rate minus inflation. However the correlation between the two latter
variables is not very high, varying between -0.42 for the cross-country sample and -0.18
for the pooled-data sample (Table 9).
The correlation between national or private saving rates and the inflation rate is
generally negative and often not robust, varying between 0 and –0.50. It tends to be
larger in magnitude for industrial than for developing countries. However at the
household level the correlation turns positive and varies significantly, not exceeding 0.35.
Therefore across all samples and saving measures the saving-inflation correlation is not
robust.
(ix) Saving and money stocks are positively correlated.
All saving measures show positive correlations with the M2 money stock ratio to
income. For the world sample, the cross-country correlation coefficients for gross
national or gross private saving rates and M2 are ca. 0.5. The correlation is larger in
15
industrial and lower in developing economies, and larger in the cross-section than in the
panel dimension.
(x) Saving and private financial wealth are also positively correlated.
The private financial wealth rate is the ratio of the sum of the monetary base,
private net foreign debt, and public net domestic debt to national disposable income. The
saving-private wealth correlations are positive and tend to be significant and larger for
industrial countries.
(xi) The correlation between saving rates and private credit flows is not robust across
different saving measures and samples.
Correlations between saving rates and private credit flows vary with saving
measures and samples. An extreme case of lack of robustness across samples is observed
for household saving, where cross-country correlations with private credit flows range
from –0.42 in developing countries to +0.63 in industrial countries.
(xii) The correlation between saving rates and social security spending flows is not
robust across different saving measures and samples.
The cross-country correlation between national or private saving rate and the
share of social security spending in total public expenditure is close to 0.60 in industrial
countries (significant at the 5% level). However it is not significantly different from zero
for developing economies. At the household level the correlation is negative across both
regional groups and is larger for developing countries.
(xiii) The correlation between saving and the old-age dependency ratio is not robust
across different saving measures and samples.
The world correlation between the GNS ratio and the old-age dependency ratio is
positive and ca. 0.34 (significant at the 5% level) for GNS and GPS. However a very
different picture emerges at sub-sample levels: correlations change in magnitude and sign
for developing and industrial countries and across national and private saving measures.
For household saving the correlations are systematically negative.
(xiv) Saving rates and young-age dependency ratios are negatively correlated.
A clearer picture is obtained for the correlation between saving measures and the
young-age dependency ratio. The world cross-country correlation between saving and the
young-age dependency ratio is negative and ca. -0.50 (significant at the 5% level) for both
GNS and GPS. This negative correlation is generally maintained for developing and
industrial countries separately. For household saving, however, the correlation is low and
unstable in sign.
16
(xv) The correlation between saving rates and the urbanization ratio is not robust
across different saving measures and samples.
At the world level the cross-country correlation between saving and the
urbanization rate is ca. 0.50 (significant at the 5% level) for GNS and GPS. However at
the sub-sample level the correlations are of opposite sign: for developing countries it is
ca. 0.4 (significant at the 5% level) and for industrial economies it is ca. –0.25
(significant at the 5% level). The negative correlation is confirmed for industrial
countries for the household saving sample.
(xvi) The correlation between saving and income concentration is negative in the world
at large but not robust across different regional samples.
For the world at large, the cross-country correlations between national and private
saving (on one hand) and the Gini coefficient for personal income concentration (on the
other hand) are always negative, ranging from –0.11 for household saving to -0.42 for
private saving (the latter is significant at a 5% level). However the correlations are highly
unstable at sub-sample levels, ranging from moderate positive to large negative values.
(xvii) Household and corporate saving rates are negatively correlated.
A cross-country world correlation of –0.49 (significant at a 10 % level) is
observed between household and corporate saving rates for our small country sample.
The coefficient rises in magnitude to about –0.63 at the sub-sample levels for developing
and industrial countries. This suggests high household-corporate saving offsetting.
(xviii) Real gross domestic investment rates and real per capita GDP growth rates are
positively correlated.
There is a high correlation between real GDI ratios (to real GDP) and per capita
growth rates of real GDP, attaining .23 in the world at large and significant at the 5%
level. In developing countries, the correlation is .23, while in industrial countries it is .33,
both significant at 5%.
Finally we report cross-correlations among saving-related variables (Table 9),
with cross-country correlations shown in the lower half and pooled-data correlations
reported in the upper half of the table. Of the large number of results we want to single
out only one: the high correlation (in magnitude) observed between the level of
development (reflected by per capital real income levels) and saving-related variables that
also proxy structural indicators of development, including financial depth (M2/income),
social security expenditure, demographic dependency ratios, urbanization, and income
concentration. While this result is not unexpected, it is important to keep it in mind when
17
estimating saving functions in a multivariate framework that accounts for the influence of
both per capita income and structural indicators.
5. Conclusions
This paper has documented the main saving trends and correlations between
saving and other variables observed in industrial and developing countries during the last
three decades. This has been possible by using the recent Saving Project World Database
put together by the World Bank. The paper has provided a comprehensive description of
facts, trends, and correlations based on different saving aggregates, alternative public
saving measures, various world regions and country groups, different regional
aggregation measures (unweighted averages, medians, and GNP-weighted averages), and
a large set of saving-related variables and potential saving determinants.
Among the main findings reported here are the following. The world’s average
saving rate has declined for the last two decades but country saving rates exhibit a large
dispersion, especially in developing regions. While in a small number of developing
countries saving has risen substantially (together with growth), saving has stagnated or
even declined in most other developing countries. Countries that save more exhibit, on
average, more stable saving rates over time. Country saving rates tend to rise with per
capita real income levels and growth rates, domestic investment, public saving, money
stocks, and private financial wealth. However substantial heterogeneity in the correlation
between saving and related variables is observed between industrial and developing
countries.
References
Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka (1980): “Domestic Savings and International Capital
Flows”, Economic Journal 90: 314-329.
Loayza, N., H. López, K. Schmidt-Hebbel and L. Servén (1998): “The World Saving
Data Base”, World Bank manuscript, January.
Loayza, N., K. Schmidt-Hebbel, and L. Servén (1998): “What drives Saving across the
World?”, World Bank manuscript, September.
Masson, Bayoumi, and Samiei (1996): “Saving Behavior in Industrial and Developing
Countries”, International Monetary Fund.
Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and L. Servén (1997): “Saving across the World: Puzzles and
Policies”, World Bank Discussion Paper No. 354.
18
Schmidt-Hebbel. K. and L. Servén (eds.) (1999): The Economics of Saving and Growth.
Cambridge University Press, forthcoming.
List of Tables
1.1 Gross National Saving/Gross National Disposable Income ratios by Country
Regions/Groups and Periods (Fixed Sample)
1.2 Gross National Saving/Gross National Disposable Income ratios by Country
Regions/Groups and Periods (Full Sample)
2.1 Private and Public Saving ratios to GNDI (regional medians) by Public Saving
Measures and Periods (Fixed Sample)
2.2 Net Capital Gains to the Government due to Inflation (regional medians) by Periods
(Fixed Sample)
2.3 Gross Private Saving/Gross Private Disposable Income by Country Regions/Groups
and Periods (adjusted, public sector definition) (Fixed Sample)
3.1 Household and Corporate Saving ratios to GPDI (regional medians) by Periods
(Household and Corporate Sample)
3.2 Household Saving ratio to GPDI by Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Household Sample)
4.1 Real Private Consumption/Real GDP ratios by Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
4.2 Real Government Consumption/Real GDP ratios by Country Regions/Groups and
Periods (Fixed Sample)
4.3 Real Domestic Investment/Real GDP ratios by Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
5. Cross-country and panel correlations between GNS/GNDI and saving-related variables
by Country Regions (Full sample)
6. Cross-country and panel correlations between GPS/GPDI (consistent with nonadjusted CG) and saving-related variables by Country Regions (Full sample)
7. Cross-country and panel correlations between GPS/GPDI (consistent with adjusted
PS) and saving-related variables by Country Regions (Full sample)
8. Cross-country and panel correlations between HHS/GPDI and saving-related variables
by Country Regions (Full sample)
1
9. Cross-country and panel correlations among saving-related variables in the World
(Full sample)
SAVING IN THE WORLD:
Annex of Figures
Norman Loayza
Humberto López
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Luis Servén
November 1998
This Annex to our paper “Saving in the World: Facts, Trends, and Correlations”
presents figures for time trends and bi-variate correlations that complement the
information in the tables included in the main text.
Figures 1.0 through 1.4 depict time charts for Gross National Saving ratios to
Gross National Disposable Income (GNS/GPDI) for country groups (for 1970 through
1994, series 1.1 and 1.3) and country regions (for 1960 or later through 1994, series 1.2
and 1.4). Fixed country samples are considered in series 1.1 and 1.2, and full country
samples are considered in series 1.3 and 1.4. Medians are depicted in figures 1.i,
unweighted averages in figures 1.ib, and GNP-weighted averages are depicted in figures
1.ic, for i=1,..4. Figure 1.5 depicts the bi-variate cross-country relation between national
saving rates and the standard deviation the various saving measures and various savingrelated variables for the world sample.
Figures 2.0 through 2.8 depict time charts for Gross Public and Gross Private
Saving ratios according to various definitions of public saving, for country groups and
country regions. Figure 3.1 shows a time chart for net corporate and household saving in
industrial and developing countries. Figures 4.1 through 4.3b depict time charts for
private consumption, public consumption, and domestic investment ratios to GDP.
Figures 1.5, 2.10, 2.11, and 3.2 depict bi-variate cross-country relations between
various saving rates and their standard deviations for the world sample.
Figures 5.1 through 8.11 depict bi-variate cross-country relations between various
saving measures and various saving-related variables for the world sample. Each figure
depicts two correlations (for the OECD and LDC samples) between average long-run
country observations for a given saving measure and a saving-related variable. The lines
represent the fitted values of an OLS regression for the corresponding sample.
1
Annex of Figures, Table of Contents
Figure:
Title:
1.0
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving rate
including net current transfers as percent of gross national disposable income (Regional medians at
current prices, 1965-1994)
1.1
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (Group medians at current prices, fixed country
sample, 1965-1994)
1.1b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (Unweighted group averages at current prices, fixed
country sample, 1965-1994)
1.1c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (GNP-weighted group averages, fixed country sample,
1965-1994)
1.2
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (Regional medians at current prices, fixed country sample,
1965-1994)
1.2b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (Unweighted regional averages at current prices, fixed country
sample, 1965-1994)
1.2c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (GNP-weighted regional averages, fixed country sample,
1965-1994)
1.3
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (Group medians at current prices, full sample,
1965-1994)
1.3b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (Unweighted group averages at current prices, full
sample, 1965-1994)
1.3c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross national saving as
percent of gross national disposable income (GNP-weighted group averages at current prices, full
sample, 1965-1994)
1.4
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (Regional medians at current prices, full sample, 1965-1994)
1.4b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (Unweighted regional averages at current prices, full sample,
1965-1994)
2
1.4c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross national saving as percent
of gross national disposable income (GNP-weighted regional averages at current prices, full
sample, 1965-1994)
1.5
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES – LEVELS AND VARIATION: Gross national saving
rate as percent of gross national disposable income and the standard deviation of the gross national
saving rate (Country averages at current prices, fixed sample, 1965-1994)
2.0
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross private saving rate as
percent of gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Regional medians
at current prices, 1965-1994)
2.1
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PUBLIC SAVING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (Percent
of gross national disposable income, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
2.2
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PUBLIC SAVING IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES (Percent
of gross national disposable income, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
2.3
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PRIVATE SAVING IN INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES (Percent of gross private disposable income; Medians of fixed country sample,
1970-1994)
2.4
COMPOSITION OF GROSS NATIONAL SAVING: Public and private saving as percent of gross
national disposable income (Unadjusted, central government definition; Medians of fixed country
sample, 1970-1994)
2.5
COMPOSITION OF GROSS NATIONAL SAVING: Public and private saving as percent of gross
national disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Medians of fixed country sample,
1970-1994)
2.6
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross private saving as percent
of gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current
prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
2.7
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross private saving as percent of
gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current
prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
2.8
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS: Gross private saving as percent
of gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current
prices, full country sample, 1970-1994)
2.9
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS: Gross private saving as percent of
gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current
prices, full country sample, 1970-1994)
2.10
PRIVATE SAVING RATES – LEVELS AND VARIATION: Private saving rate as percent of
gross private disposable income and the standard deviation of the private saving rate (Unadjusted,
central government definition; Country averages at current prices, fixed sample)
2.11
PRIVATE SAVING RATES – LEVELS AND VARIATION: Private saving rate as percent of
gross private disposable income and the standard deviation of the private saving rate (Adjusted,
public sector definition; Country averages at current prices, fixed sample)
3
3.1
COMPOSITION OF PRIVATE SAVING: Net household saving and net corporate saving, ratios
to private disposable income (Net household and corporate saving data sample, 1965-1992)
3.2
HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATES – LEVELS AND VARIATION: Household saving as percent of
gross private disposable income and the standard deviation of the household saving rate (Net
household data sample)
4.1
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION/GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS (Group medians at
constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
4.1b
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION/GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS (Regional medians at
constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
4.2
PUBLIC CONSUMPTION/GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS (Group medians at constant
1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
4.2b
PUBLIC CONSUMPTION/GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS (Regional medians at constant
1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
4.3
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT/GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS (Group medians at
constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
4.3b
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT/GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS (Regional medians at
constant prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
5.1
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INCOME: Gross national saving rate and real
per capita national disposable income (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.2
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INCOME GROWTH: Gross national saving
rate and growth of real per capita national disposable income (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.3
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT: Gross national saving
and gross domestic investment ratios to national disposable income (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.4a
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PUBLIC SAVING: Gross national saving and gross
public saving ratios to national disposable income (Unadjusted, central government definition;
Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.4b
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PUBLIC SAVING: Gross national saving and gross
public saving ratios to national disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country
averages, 1965-1995)
5.5
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE: Gross national saving rate
and average of ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.6
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND INFLATION: Gross national saving and ex-post (log)
inflation rate (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.7
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND MONEY STOCK: National saving and broad money
(M2, year average), ratios to gross national disposable income (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.8
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PRIVATE WEALTH: Gross national saving and net
private financial wealth (year average), ratios to gross national disposable income (Country
averages, 1965-1995)
4
5.9
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS: Gross national
saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross national disposable income (Country averages,
1965-1995)
5.10
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND SOCIAL SECURITY: National saving rate and social
security expenditure relative to public expenditure (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.11
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO: National saving
rate and population aged 65 and over and 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.12
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND OLD DEPENDENCY RATIO: National saving rate
and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population (Country averages, 19651995)
5.13
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO: National saving
rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population (Country averages,
1965-1995)
5.14
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND URBANIZATION: National saving rate and urban
population relative to total (Country averages, 1965-1995)
5.15
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION: National saving ratio
and Gini coefficient (Country averages, 1965-1995).
5.16
LONG-TERM REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND REAL PER CAPITA GDP
GROWTH: Real gross domestic investment ratio to real GDP and growth of real per capita GDP
(Country averages, 1965-1995).
6.1
LONG-TERM PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME: Gross private saving rate
and real per capita private disposable income (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country
averages, 1965-1995)
6.2
LONG-TERM PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH: Gross private
saving rate and growth rate of real per capita private disposable income (Unadjusted, central
government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6.3
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SAVING: Gross private saving rate and gross
public saving rate (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6.4
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE: Gross private saving
rate and real interest rate (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 19651995)
6.5
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND MONEY STOCK: Gross private saving rate
and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income (Unadjusted,
central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6.6
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS: Gross private
saving rate and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income (Unadjusted,
central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6.7
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO: Gross
private saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
5
6.8
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO: Gross
private saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6.9
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE: Gross private saving
rate and urbanization rate (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 19651995)
7.1
LONG-TERM PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME: Gross private saving rate
and real per capita private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country
averages, 1965-1995)
7.2
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH: Gross
private saving rate and growth rate of real per capita private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.3
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SAVING: Gross private saving rate and gross
public saving rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.4
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE: Gross private saving
rate and real interest rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.5
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND MONEY STOCK: Gross private saving rate
and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.6
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS: Gross private
saving rate and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.7
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO: Gross
private saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population (Adjusted,
public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.8
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND YOUNG AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO: Gross
private saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
7.9
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE: Gross private saving
rate and urbanization rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
8.1
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME: Net household
saving rate and real per capita private disposable income (Unadjusted, central government
definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
8.2
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH: Net
household saving rate and growth of real per capita private disposable income (Unadjusted, central
government definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
8.3
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND PUBLIC SECTOR SAVING: Net household
saving and public sector saving, as percent of gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
6
8.4
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND CORPORATE SAVING: Net household
saving and net corporate saving ratios to private disposable income (Unadjusted, central
government definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
8.5
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE: Net household
saving rate and real interest rate (Country averages, 1965-1995)
8.6
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND MONEY STOCK: Net household saving rate
and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income (Country averages,
1965-1995)
8.7
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS: Net
household saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income (Country
averages, 1965-1995)
8.8
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO: Net
household saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
8.9
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO: Net
household saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
8.10
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE: Net household
saving rate and urbanization rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 19651995)
Figure 1.0
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving rate including net current transfers as percent of gross national disposable income
(Regional medians at current prices, 1965-1994)
40
35
GNS/GNDI (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Ch
ina
1985
-94
P
EA
NA
ME
1974
-84
IND
SA
A
SS
1965
-73
LA
C
Figure 1.1
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Group medians at current prices, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
Median GNS/GNDI
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
TAKEOFF
1977
1979
otherLDC
1981
WORLD
1983
IND
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.1b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Unweighted group averages at current prices, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Average GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
China
1977
TAKEOFF
1979
1981
otherLDC
1983
WORLD
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.1c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(GNDI-weighted group averages, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
Weighted Average GNS/GNDI
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
TAKEOFF
1977
1979
otherLDC
1981
WORLD
1983
IND
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.2
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Regional medians at current prices, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Median GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
1977
MENA
1979
EAP
1981
SA
1983
SSA
1985
LAC
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.2b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Unweighted regional averages at current prices, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Average GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
MENA
1977
1979
EAP
1981
SA
SSA
1983
LAC
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.2c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(GNDI-weighted regional averages, fixed country sample, 1965-1994)
60%
50%
Average GNS/GNDI
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
China
MENA
1977
EAP
1979
1981
1983
SA
SSA
LAC
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.3
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as a percentage of gross national disposable income
(Group medians at current prices, full sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Median GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
1977
TAKEOFF
1979
otherLDC
1981
WORLD
1983
IND
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.3b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Unweighted group averages at current prices, full sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
Average GNS/GNDI
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
TAKEOFF
1977
1979
otherLDC
1981
WORLD
1983
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.3c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(GNDI-weighted group averages, full sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
Weighted Average GNS/GNDI
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
TAKEOFF
1977
1979
otherLDC
1981
1983
WORLD
IND
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.4
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Regional medians at current prices, full sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Median GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
MENA
1977
1979
EAP
SA
1981
SSA
1983
LAC
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.4b
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Unweighted regional averages at current prices, full sample, 1965-1994)
45%
40%
35%
Average GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
MENA
1977
EAP
1979
SA
1981
SSA
1983
LAC
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.4c
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross national saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(GNDI-weighted regional averages, full sample, 1965-1994)
50%
45%
Weighted Average GNS/GNDI
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
China
1975
MENA
1977
EAP
1979
SA
1981
SSA
1983
LAC
1985
IND
1987
1989
1991
1993
Figure 1.5
GROSS NATIONAL SAVING RATES - LEVELS AND VARIATION
Gross national saving rate as percent of gross national disposable income and the standard deviation of the
gross national saving rate
(Country averages at current prices, fixed sample, 1965-1994)
40%
35%
Average GNS/GNDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
2%
4%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
6%
8%
10%
Standard Deviation of GNS/GNDI
12%
14%
16%
Figure 2.0
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross private saving rate as percent of gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Regional medians at current prices, 1965-1994)
40
35
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
1990
-95
0
P
EA
NA
ME
1980
-89
IND
SA
A
SS
1970
-79
LA
C
Figure 2.1
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PUBLIC SAVING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(Percent of gross national disposable income, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
8%
7%
Median Public Saving/GNDI
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
CU
PA
1982
PU
1984
CA
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.2
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PUBLIC SAVING IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
(Percent of gross national disposable income, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
10%
8%
Median PS Sav/GNDI, %
6%
4%
2%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
-2%
-4%
CU
PA
PU
CA
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.3
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF PRIVATE SAVING IN INDUSTRIAL AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(Private saving as a percent of gross private disposable income; Medians of fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
30%
28%
26%
Private Saving/GPDI (%)
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
CU_IND
1980
PA_IND
1982
1984
CU_LDC
1986
PA_LDC
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.4
COMPOSITION OF GROSS NATIONAL SAVING
Public and private saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Unadjusted, central Government definition; Medians of fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
0.3
Median Pubic and Private Saving/GNDI (%)
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
-0.05
Pub_IND
Priv_IND
Pub_LDC
Priv_LDC
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.5
COMPOSITION OF GROSS NATIONAL SAVING
Public and private saving as percent of gross national disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Medians of fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
25%
Median Private Saving/GNDI
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
-5%
Pub_IND
Priv_IND
Pub_LDC
Priv_LDC
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.6
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross private saving as percent of gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
35%
30%
Median Private Saving/GPDI
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
TAKEOFF
1980
otherLDC
1982
1984
WORLD
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.7
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross private saving as percent of gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
40%
35%
Median Private Saving/GPDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
MENA
1980
EAP
1982
SA
1984
SSA
1986
LAC
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.8
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY COUNTRY GROUPS
Gross private saving as percent of gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current prices, full country sample, 1970-1994)
35%
30%
Median Private Saving/GPDI
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
TAKEOFF
1980
otherLDC
1982
1984
WORLD
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.9
GROSS PRIVATE SAVING RATES BY WORLD REGIONS
Gross private saving as percent of gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Group medians at current prices, full country sample, 1970-1994)
35%
30%
Median Private Saving/GPDI
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
MENA
1980
EAP
1982
SA
1984
SSA
1986
LAC
1988
IND
1990
1992
1994
Figure 2.10
PRIVATE SAVING RATES - LEVELS AND VARIATION
Private saving rate as percent of gross private disposable income & the standard deviation of the private saving
rate
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages at current prices, fixed sample)
45%
40%
35%
Average GPriS/GPDI
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Standard Deviation of GPriS/GPDI
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
12%
14%
16%
18%
Figure 2.11
PRIVATE SAVING RATES - LEVELS AND VARIATION
Private saving rate as percent of gross private disposable income & the standard deviation of the private saving
rate
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages at current prices, fixed sample)
35%
30%
Average GPriS/GPDI
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Standard Deviation of GPriS/GPDI
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
20%
25%
Figure 3.1
COMPOSITION OF PRIVATE SAVING
Net household saving and net corporate saving, ratios to private
disposable income
(Net household and corporate saving data sample, 1965-1992)
14%
Corporate and Household Saving/ GPDI (%)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
HH_IND
1975
1977
CO_IND
1979
HH_LDC
1981
CO_LDC
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
Figure 3.2
HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATES - LEVELS AND VARIATION
Household saving as percent of gross private disposable income and the standard deviation of the household
saving rate
(Net household data sample)
20%
Average Net HHS/GPDI
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-5%
Standard Deviation of Net HHS/GPDI
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
7%
8%
9%
10%
Figure 4.1
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION/ GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS
(Group medians at constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
80%
Median Real Private Consumption/Real GDP
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
TAKEOFF
1980
1982
otherLDC
1984
WORLD
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 4.1b
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION/ GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS
(Regional medians at constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
100%
95%
90%
Median Real Private Consumption/ Real GDP
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
MENA
1980
EAP
1982
SA
1984
SSA
LAC
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 4.2
PUBLIC CONSUMPTION/ GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS
(Group medians at constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
20%
Median Real Government Consumption/Real GDP
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
TAKEOFF
1980
otherLDC
1982
1984
WORLD
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 4.2b
PUBLIC CONSUMPTION/GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS
(Regional medians at constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
20%
Median Real Government Consumption/ Real GDP
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
MENA
1980
EAP
1982
SA
1984
SSA
LAC
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 4.3
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT/ GDP RATIOS BY COUNTRY GROUPS
(Group medians at constant 1987 prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
40%
Median Real GDI/Real GDP
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
TAKEOFF
1980
otherLDC
1982
1984
WORLD
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 4.3b
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT/ GDP RATIOS BY WORLD REGIONS
(Regional medians at constant prices, fixed country sample, 1970-1994)
40%
Median Real GDI/Real GDP
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
1970
1972
1974
1976
China
1978
MENA
1980
EAP
1982
SA
1984
SSA
LAC
1986
IND
1988
1990
1992
1994
Figure 5.1
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INCOME
Gross national saving rate and real per capita national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
50%
45%
40%
35%
GNS/GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Real GNDI Per Capita
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Figure 5.2
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INCOME GROWTH
Gross national saving rate and growth of real per capita national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
Growth Rate of Real Per Capita GNDI (%)
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
0.04
0.06
0.08
Figure 5.3
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
Gross national saving and gross domestic investment ratios to national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
10%
15%
LDC
Developing
20%
IND
Industrial
25%
GDI/GNDI (%)
30%
35%
40%
Figure 5.4a
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PUBLIC SAVING
Gross national saving and gross public saving ratios to national disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-15%
-10%
LDC
Developing
-5%
IND
Industrial
0%
Unadjusted CCG Saving/GNDI (%)
5%
10%
15%
Figure 5.4b
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PUBLIC SAVING
Gross national saving and gross public saving ratios to national disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
LDC
Developing
0%
IND
Industrial
5%
10%
PS Saving/ GNDI (%)
15%
20%
Figure 5.5
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE
Gross national saving rate and average of ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GNS/GNDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-50%
-40%
LDC
Developing
-30%
IND
Industrial
-20%
-10%
0%
Real Interest Rate
10%
20%
30%
40%
Figure 5.6
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND INFLATION
Gross national saving and ex-post (log) inflation rate
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
20%
LDC
Developing
40%
IND
Industrial
60%
Inflation rate
80%
100%
120%
Figure 5.7
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND MONEY STOCK
National saving and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
20%
40%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
60%
M2/GNDI (%)
80%
100%
120%
Figure 5.8
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND PRIVATE WEALTH
Gross national saving and net private financial wealth (year average), ratios to gross national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-100%
-50%
LDC
Developing
0%
IND
Industrial
50%
100%
150%
Private Financial Wealth/GNDI (%)
200%
250%
300%
Figure 5.9
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS
Gross national saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross national disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GNS/GNDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
0%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
5%
10%
Domestic Credit Flow/GNDI (%)
15%
20%
25%
Figure 5.10
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND SOCIAL SECURITY
National saving rate and social security expenditure relative to public expenditure
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
LDC
Developing
10%
IND
Industrial
15%
20%
25%
30%
Public Social Security
(% of Public Expenditure)
35%
40%
45%
50%
Figure 5.11
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO
National saving rate and population aged 65 and over and 15 and under relative to working age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GNS/GNDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
40%
50%
60%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
70%
80%
Total Age Dependency Ratio
90%
100%
110%
120%
Figure 5.12
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND OLD DEPENDENCY RATIO
National saving ratio and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
LDC
Developing
10%
IND
Industrial
15%
Old Dependency Ratio
20%
25%
30%
Figure 5.13
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO
National saving ratio and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0.2
0.3
LDC
Developing
0.4
IND
Industrial
0.5
0.6
0.7
Young Dependency Ratio
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
Figure 5.14
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND URBANIZATION
National saving ratio and urban population relative to total
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
LDC
Developing
20%
IND
Industrial
40%
60%
Urban Population Ratio
80%
100%
Figure 5.15
LONG-TERM NATIONAL SAVING AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION
National saving ratio and Gini coefficient
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GNS/ GNDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
25
LDC
Developing
30
IND
Industrial
35
40
45
50
Income Distribution (Gini Coefficient)
55
60
65
Figure 5.16
LONG-TERM REAL GROSS DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND REAL PER CAPITA GDP GROWTH
Real gross domestic investment ratio to real GDP and growth of real per capita GDP
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
8%
Growth of per capita real GDP (%)
6%
4%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-2%
-4%
-6%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
Real Investment/Real GDP (%)
35%
40%
45%
50%
Figure 6.1
LONG-TERM PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME
Gross private saving rate and real per capita private disposable income (Unadjusted, central government
definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
70%
60%
GPriS/ GPDI (%)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
-10%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
Real Per Capita Private
Disposable Income
12000
14000
16000
18000
Figure 6.2
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH
Gross private saving rate and growth rate of real per capita private disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
60%
50%
GPriS/ GPDI (%)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Growth rate of real
per capita GPDI
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Figure 6.3
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SAVING
Gross private saving rate and gross public saving rate
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
30%
GPriS/ GPDI %
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-5%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
CCG Saving (Unadjusted)/ GPDI (%)
10%
15%
20%
25%
Figure 6.4
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE
Gross private saving rate and real interest rate (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
50%
40%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
20%
10%
0%
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Real Interest Rate
15%
25%
35%
Figure 6.5
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND MONEY STOCK
Gross private saving rate and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Money Stock
100%
120%
140%
160%
Figure 6.6
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS
Gross private saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income (Unadjusted, central
government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Domestic Credit Flows
20%
25%
30%
Figure 6.7
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
Gross private saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population (Unadjusted,
central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
4%
9%
14%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Old Age Dependency Ratio
19%
24%
Figure 6.8
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO
Gross private saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population (Unadjusted,
central government definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Young Dependency Ratio
85%
95%
105%
115%
Figure 6.9
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE
Gross private saving rate and urbanization rate (Unadjusted, central government definition; Country averages,
1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Urbanization Rate
70%
80%
90%
100%
Figure 7.1
LONG-RUN PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME
Gross private saving rate and real per capita private disposable income (Adjusted, public sector definition;
Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI %
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
2000
LDC
Developing
4000
IND
Industrial
6000
8000
Real per capita GPDI
10000
12000
14000
16000
Figure 7.2
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH
Gross private saving rate and growth rate of real per capita private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
45%
40%
35%
30%
GPriS/ GPDI %
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-5%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
Growth rate of real per capita GPDI
8%
10%
12%
14%
Figure 7.3
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE AND PUBLIC SAVING
Gross private saving rate and gross public saving rate
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
0.4
0.35
0.3
GPriS/ GPDI, %
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-10%
0%
LDC
Developing
10%
IND
Industrial
20%
30%
Public Saving/ GPDI
(PS, adjusted), %
40%
50%
60%
Figure 7.4
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE
Gross private saving rate and real interest rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
30%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Real Interest Rate
10%
20%
30%
40%
Figure 7.5
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND MONEY STOCK
Gross private saving rate and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income
(Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
20%
40%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
60%
80%
Money Stock
100%
120%
140%
160%
Figure 7.6
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS
Gross private saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
0%
5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
10%
15%
Domestic Credit Flows
20%
25%
30%
Figure 7.7
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
Net household saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population (Country
averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
4%
9%
14%
19%
LDC
IND
Old Age Dependency Ratio
Developing
Industrial
24%
29%
Figure 7.8
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND YOUNG AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
Gross private saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
25%
LDC
Industrial
35%
45%
IND
Developing
55%
65%
Young Dependency Ratio
75%
85%
95%
Figure 7.9
LONG-TERM GROSS PRIVATE SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE
Gross private saving rate and urbanization rate (Adjusted, public sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
40%
35%
GPriS/GPDI (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
10%
20%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
30%
40%
50%
Urbanization Rate
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Figure 8.1
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME
Net household saving rate and real per capita private disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
20%
Net HHS/ GPDI (unadjusted, CCG), %
15%
10%
5%
0%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
-5%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
Real per capita GPDI
(unadjusted, CCG)
10000
12000
14000
16000
Figure 8.2
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL PRIVATE INCOME GROWTH
Net household saving rate and growth of real per capita private disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
25%
Net HHS/ GPDI (Unadjusted, CCG), %
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Growth Rate of Real Per Capita GPDI (%)
5%
6%
7%
Figure 8.3
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND PUBLIC SECTOR SAVING
Net household saving and public sector saving, as percent of gross private disposable income (Adjusted, public
sector definition; Country averages, 1965-1995)
20%
15%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
10%
5%
0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Public Sector Saving Rate
6%
8%
10%
12%
Figure 8.4
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND CORPORATE SAVING
Net household saving and net corporate saving ratios to private disposable income
(Unadjusted, central government definition; All countries, 1965-1995)
20%
Net HHS/ GPDI (Unadjusted, CCG), %
15%
10%
5%
0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-5%
-10%
LDC
Developing
IND
Industrial
Net Corporate Saving/ GPDI
(Unadjusted, CCG), %
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Figure 8.5
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND REAL INTEREST RATE
Net household saving rate and real interest rate
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
35%
30%
25%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Real Interest Rate
5%
10%
15%
Figure 8.6
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND MONEY STOCK
Net household saving rate and broad money (M2, year average), ratios to gross private disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
20%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-5%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Money Stock
100%
120%
140%
160%
Figure 8.7
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND DOMESTIC CREDIT FLOWS
Net household saving and domestic credit flows, ratios to gross private disposable income
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
30%
25%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Domestic Credit Flows
20%
25%
30%
Figure 8.8
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND OLD AGE DEPENDENCY RATIO
Net household saving rate and population aged 65 and over relative to working-age population (Country
averages, 1965-1995)
20%
15%
GPriS/GNDI (%)
10%
5%
0%
4%
9%
14%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Old Age Dependency Ratio
19%
24%
Figure 8.9
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND YOUNG DEPENDENCY RATIO
Net household saving rate and population aged 15 and under relative to working-age population
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
35%
30%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-5%
-10%
LDC
Industrial
IND
Developing
Young Dependency Ratio
70%
80%
90%
100%
Figure 8.10
LONG-TERM NET HOUSEHOLD SAVING AND URBANIZATION RATE
Net household saving rate and urbanization rate
(Country averages, 1965-1995)
20%
Net HHS/GPDI (%)
15%
10%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-5%
-10%
LDC
IND
Developing
Industrial
Urbanization Rate
70%
80%
90%
100%
Table 1.1
GNS/GNDI ratios by Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
China
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time-series
section)
0.206
0.207
0.092
0.779
-0.041
0.203
0.203
0.099
0.737
-0.306
0.190
0.187
0.089
0.501
-0.147
0.198
0.196
0.094
0.779
-0.306
0.198
0.188
0.076
0.380
0.037
0.015
0.260
0.256
0.043
0.401
0.175
0.232
0.229
0.050
0.401
0.125
0.216
0.202
0.062
0.409
0.126
0.235
0.234
0.055
0.409
0.125
0.235
0.225
0.045
0.339
0.178
0.021
0.183
0.167
0.094
0.779
-0.041
0.192
0.190
0.110
0.737
-0.306
0.180
0.177
0.096
0.501
-0.147
0.186
0.181
0.102
0.779
-0.306
0.186
0.177
0.081
0.380
0.037
0.015
0.256
0.278
0.044
0.299
0.201
0.331
0.348
0.032
0.380
0.288
0.372
0.367
0.025
0.413
0.339
0.325
0.348
0.057
0.413
0.201
0.325
0.325
0.214
0.216
0.067
0.344
0.056
0.261
0.269
0.080
0.461
0.016
0.317
0.320
0.070
0.501
0.089
0.276
0.279
0.083
0.501
0.016
0.276
0.277
0.061
0.371
0.160
0.042
0.178
0.158
0.097
0.779
-0.041
0.179
0.178
0.110
0.737
-0.306
0.156
0.160
0.077
0.413
-0.147
0.170
0.166
0.096
0.779
-0.306
0.170
0.173
0.074
0.380
0.037
0.019
0.209
0.212
0.064
0.344
-0.012
0.286
0.288
0.060
0.461
0.136
0.308
0.330
0.089
0.501
0.115
0.272
0.278
0.083
0.501
-0.012
0.272
0.279
0.057
0.344
0.166
0.045
0.231
0.203
0.131
0.779
0.036
0.265
0.223
0.120
0.737
0.112
0.213
0.219
0.054
0.350
0.030
0.238
0.218
0.107
0.779
0.030
0.238
0.216
0.076
0.374
0.156
0.033
0.175
0.160
0.062
0.368
0.056
0.185
0.178
0.079
0.467
0.016
0.156
0.155
0.065
0.315
-0.147
0.172
0.166
0.071
0.467
-0.147
0.172
0.171
0.044
0.281
0.094
0.021
0.159
0.150
0.048
0.263
0.082
0.196
0.207
0.044
0.256
0.084
0.232
0.213
0.054
0.352
0.167
0.201
0.207
0.055
0.352
0.082
0.201
0.191
0.042
0.259
0.164
0.033
0.141
0.134
0.071
0.288
-0.041
0.122
0.114
0.103
0.565
-0.306
0.118
0.112
0.074
0.288
-0.072
0.124
0.116
0.088
0.565
-0.306
0.124
0.115
0.061
0.244
0.037
0.024
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
..
0.057
0.325
0.325
Table 1.2
GNS/GNDI ratios by Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Full sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
China
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time-series
section)
0.197
0.201
0.085
0.779
-0.041
0.197
0.197
0.101
0.737
-0.306
0.185
0.182
0.091
0.501
-0.393
0.192
0.192
0.093
0.779
-0.393
0.185
0.184
0.079
0.374
-0.192
0.014
0.260
0.260
0.042
0.401
0.175
0.231
0.228
0.049
0.401
0.125
0.217
0.205
0.061
0.409
0.126
0.235
0.234
0.054
0.409
0.125
0.235
0.229
0.044
0.339
0.178
0.021
0.173
0.161
0.084
0.779
-0.041
0.188
0.185
0.108
0.737
-0.306
0.177
0.172
0.095
0.501
-0.393
0.180
0.175
0.099
0.779
-0.393
0.173
0.168
0.081
0.374
-0.192
0.015
0.255
0.273
0.042
0.299
0.201
0.331
0.348
0.032
0.380
0.288
0.372
0.367
0.025
0.413
0.339
0.322
0.343
0.057
0.413
0.201
0.322
0.322
0.194
0.209
0.067
0.344
-0.012
0.261
0.269
0.080
0.461
0.016
0.317
0.320
0.070
0.501
0.089
0.260
0.263
0.087
0.501
-0.012
0.260
0.261
0.055
0.336
0.159
0.053
0.169
0.151
0.087
0.779
-0.041
0.179
0.177
0.108
0.737
-0.306
0.162
0.163
0.085
0.454
-0.393
0.170
0.165
0.095
0.779
-0.393
0.165
0.166
0.078
0.374
-0.192
0.015
0.208
0.210
0.065
0.344
-0.012
0.263
0.270
0.075
0.461
0.036
0.276
0.285
0.099
0.501
0.087
0.254
0.255
0.087
0.501
-0.012
0.245
0.232
0.061
0.336
0.163
0.037
0.214
0.199
0.118
0.779
0.036
0.268
0.237
0.117
0.737
0.032
0.194
0.220
0.107
0.410
-0.393
0.229
0.220
0.118
0.779
-0.393
0.205
0.215
0.134
0.374
-0.192
0.042
0.168
0.152
0.061
0.368
0.029
0.178
0.178
0.081
0.467
-0.094
0.169
0.169
0.065
0.358
-0.147
0.172
0.168
0.071
0.467
-0.147
0.174
0.174
0.045
0.281
0.066
0.017
0.146
0.139
0.049
0.263
0.050
0.163
0.171
0.059
0.256
0.004
0.190
0.192
0.070
0.352
0.082
0.168
0.167
0.063
0.352
0.004
0.164
0.158
0.054
0.255
0.088
0.025
0.144
0.122
0.086
0.408
-0.041
0.137
0.128
0.107
0.565
-0.306
0.140
0.131
0.085
0.454
-0.107
0.140
0.129
0.094
0.565
-0.306
0.139
0.118
0.067
0.268
0.037
0.021
..
0.057
0.322
0.322
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
Table 2.1
Private and Public Saving ratios to GNDI (regional medians)
by Public Saving Measures and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
65-73
74-84
85-94
Private Public National Private Public National Private Public National
World
CU
CA
PU
PA
Developing
CU
CA
PU
PA
Industrial
CU
CA
PU
PA
0.182
0.166
0.184
0.157
0.023
0.041
0.038
0.056
0.207
0.207
0.207
0.207
0.190
0.170
0.187
0.162
0.015
0.031
0.030
0.052
0.203
0.203
0.203
0.203
0.178
0.161
0.179
0.156
0.014
0.029
0.027
0.048
0.187
0.187
0.187
0.187
0.153
0.139
0.157
0.132
0.017
0.026
0.030
0.044
0.167
0.167
0.167
0.167
0.165
0.147
0.159
0.140
0.019
0.033
0.036
0.055
0.190
0.190
0.190
0.190
0.148
0.134
0.144
0.126
0.021
0.037
0.038
0.062
0.177
0.177
0.177
0.177
0.234
0.208
0.214
0.190
0.036
0.059
0.052
0.083
0.268
0.268
0.268
0.268
0.226
0.204
0.213
0.181
0.001
0.024
0.015
0.046
0.229
0.229
0.229
0.229
0.221
0.203
0.201
0.186
-0.006
0.006
0.002
0.020
0.202
0.202
0.202
0.202
Note: the number of observations differs for the four measures.
Table 2.2
Net Capital Gains to the Government due to Inflation
(regional medians) by period
(Fixed Sample)
65-73
World
Central
Public sector
Developing
Central
Public sector
Industrial
Central
Public sector
n
74-84
n
85-94
n
65-94
n
0.012
0.007
169
313
0.011
0.015
812
597
0.011
0.015
764
503
0.011
0.013
1745
1413
0.009
0.005
111
198
0.009
0.012
571
390
0.011
0.016
548
332
0.010
0.010
1230
920
0.015
0.012
58
115
0.015
0.023
241
207
0.012
0.015
216
171
0.013
0.017
515
493
Note: the sample is the fixed sample with the additional restriction that each observation has data for
saving of the central government (public sector), adjusted and unadjusted for inflation.
The number of observations is listed next to each median.
Table 2.3
Gross Private Saving/GPDI ratios by Country Regions/Groups
and Periods (adjusted, public sector definition, fixed sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time-series
(section)
0.194
0.204
0.075
0.382
-0.092
0.196
0.207
0.090
0.687
-0.257
0.184
0.196
0.098
0.439
-0.147
0.191
0.204
0.091
0.687
-0.257
0.185
0.201
0.076
0.332
0.028
0.011
0.246
0.244
0.052
0.382
0.120
0.233
0.230
0.049
0.394
0.065
0.232
0.232
0.048
0.410
0.113
0.236
0.233
0.050
0.410
0.065
0.238
0.231
0.044
0.332
0.164
0.010
0.168
0.160
0.072
0.341
-0.092
0.176
0.174
0.100
0.687
-0.257
0.159
0.150
0.108
0.439
-0.147
0.168
0.163
0.100
0.687
-0.257
0.161
0.147
0.076
0.324
0.028
0.018
0.157
0.178
0.092
0.279
-0.092
0.241
0.247
0.092
0.461
0.006
0.286
0.281
0.084
0.439
0.046
0.250
0.254
0.097
0.461
-0.092
0.252
0.257
0.074
0.324
0.101
0.047
0.171
0.156
0.068
0.341
0.034
0.160
0.160
0.096
0.687
-0.257
0.125
0.124
0.086
0.439
-0.147
0.148
0.146
0.090
0.687
-0.257
0.142
0.143
0.062
0.274
0.028
0.028
0.214
0.227
0.043
0.279
0.107
0.273
0.265
0.059
0.461
0.170
0.286
0.282
0.089
0.439
0.140
0.268
0.255
0.074
0.461
0.107
0.269
0.257
0.041
0.322
0.212
0.034
0.109
0.118
0.039
0.161
0.034
0.202
0.185
0.164
0.687
-0.092
0.197
0.203
0.104
0.439
-0.009
0.184
0.167
0.134
0.687
-0.092
0.196
0.189
0.064
0.274
0.131
0.078
0.164
0.151
0.074
0.341
-0.092
0.154
0.148
0.066
0.326
0.006
0.109
0.117
0.074
0.341
-0.119
0.141
0.140
0.074
0.341
-0.119
0.143
0.136
0.045
0.231
0.061
0.029
0.144
0.137
0.053
0.222
0.076
0.188
0.183
0.050
0.266
0.059
0.233
0.248
0.046
0.303
0.165
0.195
0.195
0.059
0.303
0.059
0.194
0.184
0.042
0.241
0.159
0.042
0.195
0.200
0.019
0.221
0.159
0.112
0.097
0.115
0.315
-0.257
0.107
0.099
0.092
0.275
-0.147
0.116
0.112
0.103
0.315
-0.257
0.096
0.082
0.069
0.243
0.028
0.055
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
China is excluded due to lack of data on adjusted public sector saving.
Table 3.1
Household and Corporate Saving ratios to GPDI (regional medians) by Periods
(Household and Corporate Sample)
65-73
Household Corporate
World
0.087
0.045
Industrial
0.094
0.046
Developing
0.079
0.035
74-84
Sum Household Corporate
0.131
0.097
0.029
0.140
0.092
0.018
0.114
0.105
0.069
85-94
Sum
Household Corporate
0.126
0.071
0.040
0.110
0.067
0.039
0.174
0.084
0.056
Sum
0.111
0.105
0.140
Note: the data measure net saving. The sample is restricted to those countries and years for which
both net household and net corporate saving data are available.
The number of observations for each period is: 1965-73 60 observations, of which 47 are from industrial
countries; 1974-84 229 observations, of which 169 are from industrial countries; 1985-94 159 observations,
of which 113 are from industrial countries.
Table 3.2
Household Saving ratio to GPDI by Country
Regions/Groups and Periods (Household Sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time-series
(section)
0.090
0.087
0.043
0.181
-0.052
0.096
0.097
0.062
0.261
-0.151
0.074
0.071
0.063
0.260
-0.116
0.088
0.088
0.059
0.261
-0.151
0.080
0.082
0.060
0.186
-0.046
0.011
0.095
0.094
0.044
0.181
0.012
0.100
0.092
0.055
0.261
-0.010
0.069
0.067
0.059
0.260
-0.088
0.088
0.085
0.056
0.261
-0.088
0.084
0.082
0.055
0.186
-0.018
0.015
0.079
0.079
0.041
0.158
-0.052
0.090
0.105
0.070
0.237
-0.151
0.083
0.084
0.069
0.234
-0.116
0.086
0.093
0.065
0.237
-0.151
0.075
0.089
0.067
0.183
-0.046
0.019
0.065
0.088
0.062
0.135
-0.052
0.089
0.118
0.087
0.160
-0.151
0.158
0.165
0.028
0.205
0.112
0.106
0.121
0.078
0.205
-0.151
0.074
0.128
0.104
0.139
-0.046
0.054
0.083
0.079
0.035
0.158
0.033
0.091
0.097
0.065
0.237
-0.091
0.068
0.065
0.064
0.234
-0.116
0.081
0.084
0.062
0.237
-0.116
0.075
0.079
0.061
0.183
-0.046
0.020
0.092
0.079
0.041
0.155
0.035
0.143
0.144
0.037
0.214
0.067
0.134
0.125
0.045
0.205
0.048
0.130
0.127
0.044
0.214
0.035
0.131
0.131
0.011
0.139
0.124
0.038
0.113
0.120
0.045
0.158
0.053
0.114
0.114
0.031
0.179
0.057
0.102
0.103
0.019
0.128
0.077
0.110
0.109
0.030
0.179
0.053
0.110
0.110
0.062
0.066
0.039
0.123
-0.052
0.073
0.095
0.083
0.237
-0.151
0.076
0.073
0.079
0.234
-0.116
0.072
0.081
0.076
0.237
-0.151
0.057
0.079
0.084
0.183
-0.046
0.113
0.109
0.016
0.135
0.100
0.124
0.122
0.017
0.156
0.096
0.144
0.141
0.026
0.178
0.112
0.128
0.122
0.022
0.178
0.096
0.128
0.128
0.073
0.072
0.025
0.097
0.051
0.049
0.045
0.029
0.097
0.012
0.028
0.020
0.022
0.101
0.009
0.042
0.034
0.029
0.101
0.009
..
0.030
0.110
0.110
..
0.023
0.022
0.128
0.128
0.049
0.044
0.027
0.078
0.024
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
China is excluded due to lack of household saving data.
0.027
Table 4.1
Real Private Consumption/Real GDP ratios by
Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
China
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time series
section)
0.678
0.654
0.148
1.358
0.341
0.671
0.644
0.132
1.288
0.319
0.672
0.643
0.123
1.268
0.445
0.673
0.645
0.131
1.358
0.319
0.673
0.647
0.117
0.924
0.465
0.006
0.607
0.592
0.051
0.752
0.531
0.609
0.601
0.052
0.794
0.498
0.598
0.597
0.053
0.760
0.467
0.605
0.597
0.052
0.794
0.467
0.605
0.599
0.046
0.715
0.533
0.007
0.710
0.705
0.166
1.358
0.341
0.697
0.676
0.146
1.288
0.319
0.700
0.686
0.130
1.268
0.445
0.700
0.684
0.143
1.358
0.319
0.699
0.684
0.126
0.924
0.465
0.010
0.631
0.615
0.107
0.755
0.525
0.516
0.518
0.013
0.532
0.492
0.496
0.495
0.022
0.544
0.464
0.541
0.518
0.080
0.755
0.464
0.541
0.541
0.636
0.599
0.101
0.867
0.501
0.597
0.580
0.079
0.911
0.459
0.562
0.567
0.055
0.668
0.445
0.588
0.577
0.078
0.911
0.445
0.589
0.586
0.061
0.715
0.521
0.029
0.724
0.710
0.172
1.358
0.341
0.716
0.700
0.148
1.288
0.319
0.726
0.718
0.124
1.268
0.459
0.721
0.708
0.142
1.358
0.319
0.718
0.707
0.124
0.924
0.465
0.011
0.626
0.608
0.077
0.818
0.501
0.564
0.560
0.050
0.665
0.459
0.558
0.541
0.079
0.759
0.445
0.579
0.567
0.075
0.818
0.445
0.587
0.580
0.054
0.683
0.528
0.035
0.612
0.663
0.188
0.826
0.334
0.649
0.624
0.156
1.078
0.319
0.653
0.641
0.098
0.875
0.459
0.645
0.635
0.140
1.078
0.319
0.640
0.610
0.136
0.836
0.451
0.025
0.722
0.727
0.122
0.909
0.385
0.686
0.678
0.107
0.962
0.406
0.709
0.672
0.123
1.264
0.514
0.703
0.691
0.117
1.264
0.385
0.701
0.697
0.102
0.915
0.546
0.020
0.740
0.705
0.089
0.931
0.609
0.718
0.692
0.068
0.859
0.632
0.682
0.689
0.069
0.800
0.565
0.709
0.696
0.076
0.931
0.565
0.709
0.703
0.057
0.781
0.650
0.033
0.781
0.767
0.202
1.358
0.452
0.777
0.802
0.161
1.288
0.401
0.773
0.802
0.119
1.268
0.500
0.776
0.800
0.151
1.358
0.401
0.779
0.823
0.120
0.924
0.541
0.012
..
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
0.080
0.541
0.541
Table 4.2
Real Government Consumption/Real GDP ratios by
Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
China
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time series
section)
0.132
0.125
0.050
0.323
0.044
0.144
0.141
0.049
0.423
0.050
0.141
0.136
0.048
0.408
0.051
0.141
0.136
0.049
0.423
0.044
0.142
0.135
0.044
0.267
0.068
0.005
0.163
0.162
0.042
0.248
0.083
0.174
0.173
0.043
0.282
0.091
0.175
0.172
0.041
0.286
0.084
0.171
0.171
0.042
0.286
0.083
0.171
0.170
0.041
0.261
0.096
0.006
0.119
0.113
0.046
0.323
0.044
0.133
0.129
0.046
0.423
0.050
0.129
0.124
0.044
0.408
0.051
0.129
0.124
0.046
0.423
0.044
0.130
0.127
0.039
0.266
0.068
0.006
0.113
0.112
0.029
0.143
0.082
0.139
0.136
0.006
0.151
0.133
0.129
0.131
0.008
0.140
0.116
0.128
0.135
0.019
0.151
0.082
0.128
0.128
0.128
0.134
0.045
0.231
0.063
0.127
0.129
0.032
0.183
0.063
0.110
0.105
0.026
0.161
0.064
0.120
0.117
0.033
0.231
0.063
0.120
0.124
0.029
0.168
0.073
0.010
0.118
0.111
0.046
0.323
0.044
0.134
0.129
0.048
0.423
0.050
0.132
0.128
0.046
0.408
0.051
0.131
0.125
0.047
0.423
0.044
0.131
0.130
0.040
0.266
0.068
0.007
0.123
0.121
0.052
0.238
0.054
0.122
0.118
0.033
0.183
0.063
0.111
0.103
0.028
0.161
0.064
0.119
0.111
0.038
0.238
0.054
0.119
0.121
0.036
0.178
0.074
0.007
0.099
0.091
0.038
0.161
0.053
0.149
0.156
0.043
0.240
0.054
0.164
0.156
0.055
0.294
0.075
0.148
0.149
0.052
0.294
0.053
0.159
0.161
0.055
0.266
0.067
0.026
0.105
0.101
0.035
0.208
0.046
0.120
0.109
0.038
0.230
0.054
0.116
0.112
0.035
0.229
0.051
0.115
0.108
0.037
0.230
0.046
0.115
0.106
0.031
0.203
0.068
0.009
0.109
0.101
0.019
0.148
0.082
0.110
0.110
0.012
0.132
0.087
0.118
0.118
0.016
0.151
0.082
0.113
0.112
0.016
0.151
0.082
0.113
0.112
0.010
0.125
0.102
0.007
0.133
0.116
0.058
0.323
0.044
0.148
0.142
0.056
0.423
0.050
0.135
0.132
0.046
0.408
0.061
0.140
0.134
0.053
0.423
0.044
0.137
0.141
0.037
0.195
0.069
0.009
..
0.019
0.128
0.128
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
Table 4.3
Real Domestic Investment/Real GDP ratios by
Country Regions/Groups and Periods
(Fixed Sample)
65-73
World
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Industrial
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Developing
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
China
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Take-off
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
Other Devel.
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
EAP
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
MENA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
LAC
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
SSA
Unwgtd Av.
Median
St. Dev.
Maximum
Minimum
74-84
85-94
65-94
(panel)
65-94 (cross- time series
section)
0.238
0.229
0.091
0.580
0.039
0.245
0.235
0.086
0.566
0.014
0.212
0.209
0.073
0.502
0.016
0.230
0.222
0.083
0.580
0.014
0.231
0.226
0.064
0.415
0.087
0.019
0.259
0.254
0.050
0.459
0.177
0.232
0.223
0.052
0.422
0.143
0.218
0.213
0.043
0.331
0.128
0.235
0.227
0.051
0.459
0.128
0.235
0.227
0.039
0.320
0.183
0.021
0.227
0.210
0.100
0.580
0.039
0.250
0.245
0.096
0.566
0.014
0.210
0.207
0.082
0.502
0.016
0.230
0.222
0.093
0.580
0.014
0.230
0.236
0.071
0.415
0.087
0.023
0.248
0.262
0.053
0.303
0.183
0.336
0.334
0.025
0.384
0.305
0.361
0.362
0.014
0.378
0.339
0.320
0.339
0.056
0.384
0.183
0.320
0.320
0.251
0.232
0.083
0.441
0.111
0.284
0.283
0.079
0.490
0.117
0.306
0.293
0.065
0.437
0.179
0.288
0.281
0.076
0.490
0.111
0.289
0.295
0.061
0.415
0.203
0.030
0.222
0.206
0.102
0.580
0.039
0.244
0.236
0.097
0.566
0.014
0.192
0.195
0.072
0.502
0.016
0.219
0.209
0.092
0.580
0.014
0.220
0.224
0.069
0.381
0.087
0.029
0.225
0.217
0.078
0.441
0.064
0.299
0.288
0.070
0.490
0.168
0.300
0.293
0.071
0.437
0.148
0.279
0.272
0.080
0.490
0.064
0.279
0.280
0.061
0.398
0.215
0.040
0.237
0.195
0.097
0.454
0.119
0.313
0.308
0.090
0.549
0.165
0.260
0.251
0.064
0.502
0.140
0.277
0.259
0.087
0.549
0.119
0.281
0.272
0.059
0.363
0.211
0.035
0.228
0.216
0.099
0.495
0.033
0.240
0.234
0.079
0.528
0.081
0.192
0.196
0.060
0.321
0.016
0.220
0.216
0.081
0.528
0.016
0.220
0.217
0.055
0.334
0.097
0.028
0.230
0.212
0.061
0.338
0.102
0.246
0.239
0.048
0.335
0.174
0.245
0.224
0.069
0.413
0.177
0.242
0.229
0.059
0.413
0.102
0.242
0.229
0.055
0.320
0.191
0.013
0.205
0.195
0.116
0.580
0.039
0.217
0.186
0.110
0.566
0.014
0.162
0.148
0.068
0.376
0.054
0.193
0.173
0.099
0.580
0.014
0.191
0.170
0.072
0.303
0.087
0.034
..
0.056
0.320
0.320
Note: the number of observations for each cell is identified in the text.
Table 5
Cross-country and panel correlations between GNS/GNDI and
saving-related variables by Country Regions
(Full Sample)
Developing
Industrial
World
Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel Cross-section Panel
GNDI, r.,pc.
0.576
0.511
0.270 0.078
0.471 0.365
Gr. of rpc GNDI
0.367
0.273
0.531 0.389
0.401 0.287
GDI/GNDI
0.719
0.645
0.472 0.539
0.708 0.642
GPubS/GNDI (CU)
0.474
0.404
0.532 0.585
0.334 0.346
GPubS/GNDI (PA)
0.495
0.535
0.600 0.567
0.389 0.492
Terms of trade
-0.115
0.020
0.059 0.197
-0.152 0.001
Real Interest rate
0.316
0.051
0.106 -0.225
0.314 0.044
Inflation
-0.211 -0.082
-0.285 -0.075
-0.250 -0.107
Money/GNDI
0.300
0.292
0.629 0.303
0.429 0.368
Pri. Financ. Wealth
0.098
0.114
0.403 0.337
0.210 0.187
0.042 -0.030
0.395 0.098
0.122 0.020
Priv. Credit Flows/G
0.065 -0.011
0.570 0.354
0.353 0.212
Social Security Rat
Old Dep. Ratio
0.199
0.145
-0.099 -0.208
0.337 0.260
Young Dep.Ratio
-0.392 -0.334
-0.402 -0.015
-0.470 -0.390
Urban Pop. Ratio
0.437
0.349
-0.210 -0.193
0.474 0.373
-0.214 -0.311
-0.079 0.197
-0.351 -0.183
Income Distribution
Note: Correlations in bold are significant at the 5% level at minimum.
The range of observations (standard errors) for the cross-sectional correlations is: developing
57-103 (.099-.132); industrial 16-23 (.209-.25); whole sample 73-126 (.089-.117).
The range of observations (standard errors) for the panel correlations is: developing 273-2470
(.02-.061); industrial 215-690 (.038-.068); whole sample 488-3160 (.018-.045).
Table 6
Cross-country and panel correlations between GPriS/GPDI (consistent
with non-adjusted CG) and saving-related variables by Country Regions
(Full Sample)
Developing
Industrial
World
Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel
GPDI, r.,pc.
0.513
0.471
0.305
0.231
0.534
0.471
Gr. of rpc GPDI
0.337
0.232
0.412
0.281
0.344
0.229
GDI/GPDI
0.637
0.457
0.197
0.175
0.583
0.427
GPubS/GPDI
0.126
-0.002
0.130
0.015
-0.005 -0.071
Terms of trade
-0.131
-0.013
0.052
0.067
-0.181 -0.051
0.339
0.074
0.359
-0.009
0.343
0.098
Real Interest rate
Inflation
-0.030
-0.035
-0.479
-0.202
-0.111 -0.085
Money/GPDI
0.424
0.340
0.633
0.357
0.550
0.449
0.167
0.161
0.488
0.426
0.290
0.258
Pri. Financ. Wea
0.224
0.082
0.236
0.008
0.289
0.119
Priv. Credit Flow
0.093
-0.001
0.603
0.377
0.437
0.335
Social Security R
Old Dep. Ratio
0.202
0.167
0.059
0.021
0.432
0.397
-0.452
-0.390
-0.505
-0.258
-0.580 -0.522
Young Dep.Ratio
0.434
0.343
-0.289
-0.225
0.521
0.433
Urban Pop. Ratio
Income Distribut
-0.207
-0.340
-0.026
0.179
-0.415 -0.344
Note: Correlations in bold are significant at the 5% level at minimum.
The range of observations (standard errors) for the cross-sectional correlations is: developing 57-96
(.102-.132); industrial 16-23 (.209-.25); whole sample 73-119 (.092-.117).
The range of observations (standard errors) for the panel correlations is: developing 273-1914
(.023-.061); industrial 215-572 (.042-.068); whole sample 488-2486 (.02-.045).
Table 7
Cross-country and panel correlations between GPriS/GPDI (consistent
with adjusted PS) and saving-related variables by Country Regions
(Full Sample)
Developing
Industrial
World
Cross-section Panel Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel
GPDI, r.,pc.
0.491 0.430
0.188
0.080
0.528
0.411
0.457 0.314
0.781
0.412
0.461
0.308
Gr. of rpc GPD
GDI/GPDI
0.670 0.340
0.197
0.220
0.594
0.322
GPubS/GPDI
0.219 -0.020
0.200 -0.103
0.119
-0.059
-0.276 -0.052
0.225
0.221
-0.302
-0.068
Terms of trade
0.344 0.155
0.439
0.076
0.342
0.172
Real Interest ra
Inflation
-0.111 -0.154
-0.497 -0.314
-0.205
-0.199
Money/GPDI
0.466 0.282
0.549
0.286
0.588
0.388
0.202 0.142
0.473
0.273
0.322
0.200
Pri. Financ. We
0.148 -0.105
0.148 -0.027
0.223
-0.061
Priv. Credit Flo
0.108 -0.084
0.566
0.342
0.459
0.229
Social Security
0.164 0.029
-0.098 -0.168
0.418
0.312
Old Dep. Ratio
-0.366 -0.225
-0.429 -0.184
-0.547
-0.419
Young Dep.Ra
0.369 0.214
-0.176 -0.184
0.475
0.313
Urban Pop. Ra
Income Distrib
-0.124 -0.400
-0.006
0.341
-0.399
-0.309
Note: Correlations in bold are significant at the 5% level at minimum.
The range of observations (standard errors) for the cross-sectional correlations is: developing
57-62 (.127-.132); industrial 16-20 (.224-.25); whole sample 73-82 (.110-.117).
The range of observations (standard errors) for the panel correlations is: developing 273-1178
(.029-.061); industrial 215-522 (.044-.068); whole sample 488-1700 (.024-.045).
Table 8
Cross-country and panel correlations between HHS/GPDI
and saving-related variables by Country Regions
(Household Sample)
Developing
Industrial
World
Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel
Cross-section Panel
GPDI, r.,pc.
-0.015
0.065
-0.367 -0.339
-0.026 -0.103
Gr. of rpc GPD
0.355
0.219
0.529
0.098
0.365
0.165
GDI/GPDI
0.212
0.308
-0.186 -0.076
0.005
0.095
GPubS/GPDI
-0.126
0.001
-0.580 -0.416
-0.393 -0.258
Terms of trade
-0.074
0.011
-0.426 -0.134
-0.165 -0.046
-0.450
-0.338
-0.243 -0.257
-0.344 -0.279
Real Interest ra
Inflation
0.091
0.061
0.176
0.311
0.039
0.063
Money/GPDI
0.034
0.012
0.235
0.067
0.121
0.030
0.109
-0.017
0.591
0.354
0.304
0.145
Pri. Financ. We
Priv. Credit Flo
-0.420
-0.195
0.620
0.188
-0.032
0.022
-0.374
-0.262
-0.202 -0.148
-0.168 -0.262
Social Security
Old Dep. Ratio
-0.290
-0.171
-0.381 -0.322
-0.082 -0.123
-0.127
-0.205
0.216
0.199
-0.094 -0.048
Young Dep.Rat
Urban Pop. Ra
-0.022
0.069
-0.296 -0.200
-0.070 -0.049
-0.339
-0.250
0.259
0.270
-0.109
0.223
Income Distribu
Note: Correlations in bold are significant at the 5% level at minimum.
The range of observations (standard errors) for the cross-sectional correlations is: developing 14-14
(.267); industrial 16-17 (.243-.25); whole sample 31-31 (.18).
The range of observations (standard errors) for the panel correlations is: developing 31-260
(.062-.179); industrial 172-412 (.049-.076); whole sample 203-666 (.038-.070).
7DEOH
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GNDI, r.,pc.
Gr. of rpc GNDI
GPDI, r., pc. (CU)
Gr. of rpc GPDI (CU)
GPDI, r., pc. (PA)
Gr. of rpc GPDI (PA)
GDI/GPDI (CU)
GDI/GPDI (PA)
GPubS/GPDI (CU)
GPubS/GPDI (PA)
Terms of trade
Real Interest rate
Inflation
Money/GNDI
Pri. Financ. Wealth
Pri. Credit Flows/GNDI
Social Security Rat
Old Dep. Ratio
Young Dep.Ratio
Urban Pop. Ratio
Income Distribution
GNDI,
r.,pc.
1.000
0.188
0.995
0.168
0.996
0.194
0.188
0.172
-0.132
-0.013
-0.167
0.180
-0.187
0.618
0.364
0.264
0.767
0.785
-0.801
0.731
-0.617
Gr. of rpc GPDI, r., pc. Gr. of rpc GPDI GPDI, r., pc.
GNDI
(CU)
(CU)
(PA)
0.060
0.996
0.054
0.994
1.000
0.071
0.804
0.053
0.229
1.000
0.057
0.999
0.884
0.180
1.000
0.043
0.251
0.998
0.216
1.000
0.732
0.196
0.867
0.191
0.372
0.164
0.446
0.160
0.458
0.157
0.552
0.145
0.182
-0.167
0.276
-0.170
0.092
-0.062
0.309
-0.058
-0.090
-0.172
-0.089
-0.194
0.190
0.179
0.186
0.167
-0.335
-0.190
-0.292
-0.207
0.402
0.636
0.290
0.581
0.212
0.380
0.169
0.344
0.349
0.307
0.283
0.202
0.147
0.775
0.088
0.706
0.295
0.793
0.200
0.776
-0.431
-0.819
-0.357
-0.830
0.171
0.736
0.138
0.735
-0.359
-0.623
-0.370
-0.637
1RWHWKLVWDEOHFRQWDLQVSDQHOFRUUHODWLRQV
&RUUHODWLRQVLQEROGDUHVLJQLILFDQWDWWKHOHYHODWPLQLPXP
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Gr. of rpc GDI/GPDI GDI/GPDI GPubS/GPDI GPubS/GPDI
GPDI (PA)
(CU)
(PA)
(CU)
(PA)
0.041
0.135
0.106
-0.096
-0.021
0.701
0.231
0.247
0.187
0.043
0.045
0.113
0.062
-0.128
-0.083
0.917
0.195
0.268
0.068
0.069
0.046
0.063
0.074
-0.144
-0.073
1.000
0.281
0.206
0.144
-0.041
0.658
1.000
0.981
0.587
0.665
0.626
0.981
1.000
0.691
0.676
0.412
0.484
0.550
1.000
0.857
0.334
0.606
0.615
0.740
1.000
-0.061
-0.155
-0.165
0.021
0.071
0.303
0.345
0.320
0.150
0.178
-0.264
-0.200
-0.217
-0.327
-0.099
0.415
0.420
0.357
-0.055
0.031
0.171
0.089
0.053
-0.104
-0.045
0.152
0.062
0.027
-0.370
-0.198
0.109
-0.009
0.021
-0.337
-0.158
0.147
0.190
0.205
-0.176
-0.079
-0.261
-0.259
-0.222
0.118
0.054
0.165
0.227
0.226
-0.053
0.094
-0.305
-0.134
-0.108
0.115
-0.055
Terms of Real Interest
trade
rate
Inflation Money/GNDI
-0.111
0.080
-0.113
0.571
0.011
0.039
-0.191
0.103
-0.114
0.137
-0.145
0.595
0.020
0.105
-0.176
0.080
-0.125
0.160
-0.158
0.521
0.046
0.194
-0.176
0.085
-0.012
0.132
-0.064
0.246
0.006
0.099
-0.020
0.162
0.108
0.046
-0.056
-0.054
0.105
-0.086
0.121
-0.050
1.000
-0.043
0.003
-0.110
0.090
1.000
-0.183
0.093
-0.008
-0.422
1.000
-0.228
-0.166
0.209
-0.370
1.000
-0.110
0.130
-0.287
0.479
-0.032
0.027
0.302
0.415
-0.267
0.197
0.035
0.611
-0.175
0.165
-0.141
0.594
0.227
-0.243
0.140
-0.630
-0.158
0.229
-0.041
0.516
0.058
-0.194
0.279
-0.538
Pri. Financ.
Wealth
0.316
0.094
0.329
0.071
0.220
0.060
0.045
0.044
-0.056
-0.036
-0.053
0.019
-0.208
0.362
1.000
0.100
0.350
0.301
-0.325
0.278
-0.272
Pri. Credit
Social Security
Flows/GPDI
Rat
0.141
0.705
0.013
0.018
0.147
0.713
0.031
0.031
0.075
0.624
-0.027
-0.026
0.097
-0.038
0.077
-0.113
-0.140
-0.203
-0.089
-0.166
-0.006
-0.231
-0.149
0.066
0.261
-0.008
0.271
0.520
0.004
0.199
1.000
0.214
0.473
1.000
0.349
0.852
-0.426
-0.798
0.392
0.736
-0.166
-0.573
Old Dep.
Young
Urban
Income
Ratio
Dep.Ratio Pop. Ratio Distribution
0.818
-0.799
0.699
-0.529
0.092
-0.131
0.046
-0.081
0.836
-0.816
0.710
-0.546
0.059
-0.116
0.042
-0.020
0.818
-0.826
0.693
-0.573
0.025
-0.068
0.021
0.065
0.077
-0.191
0.163
-0.034
0.038
-0.128
0.103
0.013
-0.176
0.113
-0.065
0.163
-0.083
0.031
0.036
0.112
-0.116
0.144
-0.129
0.038
0.084
-0.113
0.095
-0.062
-0.057
0.051
0.039
0.246
0.562
-0.627
0.490
-0.410
0.257
-0.299
0.224
-0.205
0.210
-0.258
0.244
-0.177
0.834
-0.758
0.688
-0.643
1.000
-0.819
0.582
-0.651
-0.824
1.000
-0.679
0.680
0.551
-0.692
1.000
-0.397
-0.602
0.660
-0.423
1.000