Tropical Cyclone Roanu - Estimated Impacts
Warning 11, 20 May 2016 2100 UTC
PDC - 01B - 11A
[JTWC] Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ROANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201549Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), A RECENT SATELLITE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS, AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATING SLIGHTLY WEAKER CORE WINDS. TC 01B CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW AND BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING A SLIGHT POLEWARD JOG IN THE
BEST TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT AND A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION, WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW UNDER THE STR, WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-20 KNOTS. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND LAND INTERACTION. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HRS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 18 FEET.
Estimated Wind Impacts
¯
India
Bangladesh
21MAY 1800UTC
Tropical Cyclone Positions
Ï Hurricane/Typhoon >150 mph
Ï Hurricane/Typhoon > 74 mph
Ï Tropical Storm: 39-73 mph
Ï Tropical Depression: <39 mph
Ï Current Storm Position
"
)
Ï
India
Est. Wind Impacts (TAOS)
Small Trees Sway
Large Trees Sway
Branches Breaking
Trees Down; some power loss
Minor Damage; power out
Ï
Moderate Damage 5% of value
Widespread Damage
Severe Damage
Myanmar
21MAY 0600UTC
Catastrophic Damage
0
30
0 30 60
Ï 20MAY 2100UTC
"
)
60
120 Miles
120 Kilometers
The delineation of political boundaries, and
associated data shown here do not imply
endorsement by the Pacific Disaster Center.
Ï
Produced By: Pacific Disaster Center
Product Created: 5/20/2016
Data: JTWC, TAOS Estimated Wind Impacts,
Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall, and
Estimated Still Water Storm Surge forecasted by
Kinetic Analysis Corporation
Other Data: ESRI
Projection: Mercator Datum WGS84
Ï
http://www.pdc.org - [email protected]
Estimated Still Water Storm Surge (TAOS)
Estimated Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TAOS)
Ï
India
India
India
Bangladesh
Bangladesh
India
Ï
Ï
1-3 ft
3-6 ft
6-9 ft
< 1 in
1-3 in
Myanmar
6-9 in
9-12 in
12-15 ft
>20 ft
Ï
"
)
3-6 in
9-12 ft
15-20 ft
Ï
Ï
Ï
12-24 in
> 24 in
Ï
Myanmar
Ï