19 April 2017
French Presidential Election
Prepared for CEVIPOF and Le Monde
CONTACTS
Brice Teinturier
[email protected]
Jean-François Doridot
[email protected]
Federico Vacas
[email protected]
1
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Technical note
SAMPLE
11 601 persons registered on the
electoral rolls, constituting a
representative national sample of the
French population aged 18 years and
over.
DATES OF FIELDWORK
FROM 16 APRIL TO 17 APRIL 2017.
METHODOLOGY
ONLINE INTERVIEWS
QUOTA METHOD: GENDER, AGE,
INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION,
REGION, URBAN/RURAL.
en partenariat avec
As with any quantitative survey, this study presents results subject to the margins of error inherent in statistics. This report has
been drawn up in compliance with the international standard ISO 20252 "Market research, social studies and opinion".
2
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
No interest at all
(0 à 1)
Little interest
(2 à 3)
Average interest
(4 à 6)
Sufficient interest
(7 à 8)
Lot of interest
(9 à 10)
2%
3%
13%
25%
57%
Average
score
8,2
3
Not interested
Quiet interested
Interested
5%
13%
82%
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
81
75
74
71
71
74
20
20
21
21
19
5
6
8
Jan.
2016
March 2016 May 2016
80
81
79
15
14
15
14
15
6
6
7
5
5
5
6
Sept. 2016
Nov.
2016
Dec. 2016
Jan. 2017
Feb 2017
1-5 Mar
2017
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
79
14
8
4
80
14-15 Mar 31 March 2017
2 April 2017
82
Interested
Quite
13 interested
Not
5 interested
16-17
April
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: On a scale from 0 to ten, where 0 means no interest at all
and 10 a lot of interest, what is your level of interest regarding the
coming presidential election?
Interest for the presidential election
(Note from 0 to 10)
Average score of interest
7,7
7,6
7,4
7,4
7,6
Jan.
2016
March
2016
May
2016
Sept.
2016
Nov.
2016
5
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
8,0
8,1
8,1
8,0
8,1
8,0
8,2
Dec.
2016
Jan. 2017
Feb 2017
1-5 March
2017
14-15
March
2017
31 March 2 April
2017
16-17
April
Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on
April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote
in the first round of this presidential election?
FRENCH ELECTION
Participation index
SYMPATHIZERS
81%
68%
70%
76% 76%
82%
81%
73% 77% 71% 78% 72%
55%
PARTICIPATION
72%
+6
ST EXG
Evolution
16-17 April
vs 31 March-2 April
6
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
ST
GAUCHE
ST
DROITE
Note: 72% of French people intend to vote in the first round of the
Presidential Election, 76% of PS sympathizers, 78% of LR sympathizers,
81% of FN sympathizers, etc.
Aucun
parti
FRENCH ELECTION
Question: The first round of the next presidential election will take place on
April 23, 2017. Could you give a score of 0 to 10 on your intention to vote
in the first round of this presidential election?
Participation index- gender, age,
interviewee’s occupation
GENDER
73%
AGE
71%
PARTICIPATION
72%
65%
72%
81%
LESS THAN 35
35 TO 64
65 +
INTERVIEWEE’S OCCUPATION
+6
Evolution
16-17 April
vs 31 March-2 April
7
73%
71%
69%
67%
80%
Cadre supérieur
Senior
Executive
Intermediate
profession
Employee
Worker
Retired
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
FRENCH ELECTION
Question : If the first round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates…?
Voting intention 1st Round
Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
Evolution
16-17 April
vs 31 March-2
April
-0,5
+0,5
+4
-2
-2
(=)
23
+2
(=)
(=)
+0,5
<0,5
1
22,5
19,5
19
-2,5
8
0,5
Nathalie
Arthaud
8
1,5
Philippe
Poutou
4
1
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Benoît
Hamon
Emmanuel
Macron
Jean
Lassalle
François
Fillon
People certain to vote who have not expressed an
intention to vote: 4%
Nicolas
DupontAignan
Marine
Le Pen
Jacques
Cheminade
François
Asselineau
FRECNH ELECTION
Question : Is your voting choice definite or could you still change your mind ?
Likelihood to change mind
Base : Certain to go vote
According to voting intention
« DEFINITE CHOICE » EVOLUTION%
72%
50
53
59
59
64
72
Definite
Nathalie Arthaud
Philippe Poutou
65
7-12 Feb. 1-5
2017
March
2017
14-15
March
2017
25-27
31
March March2 April
2017
16-17
April
2017
28%
Can still change
9
©Ipsos CEVIPOF - LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
François Asselineau
39
74
36
François Fillon
Marine Le Pen
30
61
Emmanuel Macron
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
54
70
Benoît Hamon
Jean Lassalle
35
46
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Definite
Can still change
26
64
81
46
19
54
84
73
16
27
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis E. Macron versus M. Le Pen
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Evolution
31 March-2 Avril
vs 14-15 March
Voting intention
1st round
-2
+2
61%
39%
Emmanuel
Macron
Marine
Le Pen

©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
J-L. Mélenchon
48%
9%
43%
100%
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
71%
3%
26%
100%
Would vote for
François Fillon
37%
32%
31%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
31%
42%
27%
100%
28 % of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
10
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis E. Macron versus F. Fillon
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Voting intention
1st round
Evolution
16-17 April vs
12-13 April
(=)

(=)
64%
36%
Emmanuel
Macron
François
Fillon
©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
J-L. Mélenchon
52%
3%
45%
100%
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
71%
1%
28%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
35%
33%
32%
100%
Would vote for
Marine Le Pen
23%
23%
54%
100%
28% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
11
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis F. Fillon versus M. Le Pen
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Voting intention
1st round
Evolution
16-17 April vs
12-13 April
-1
55%
François
Fillon
+1
45%
Marine
Le Pen

©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
14%
15%
71%
100%
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
22%
7%
71%
100%
Would vote for
Emmanuel Macron
40%
8%
52%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
31%
43%
26%
100%
36% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
12
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus E. Macron
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Evolution
16-17 April vs
12-13 April
-2
Voting intention
1st round
+2

57%
43%
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
Emmanuel
Macron
©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
56%
34%
10%
100%
Would vote for
François Fillon
5%
49%
46%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
19%
40%
41%
100%
Would vote for
Marine Le Pen
24%
22%
54%
100%
26% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
13
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus M. Le Pen
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Voting intention
1st round
Evolution
16-17 April vs
12-13 April
-3
57%
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon

+3
43%
Marine
Le Pen
©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
84%
1%
15%
100%
Would vote for
Emmanuel Macron
55%
7%
38%
100%
Would vote for
François Fillon
11%
38%
51%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
20%
51%
29%
100%
24% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
14
Not
decided
FRENCH ELECTION
Voting intention 2nd Round
Hypothesis J-L Mélenchon versus F. Fillon
Question : If the second round of the presidential election was held next
Sunday, who is the candidate for whom you will most probably vote for? If
the choice is between the following candidates?
Base : Base : Certain to vote, stated intention
REPORTED VOICE
Voting intention
1st round
Evolution
16-17 April vs
12-13 April
-2

+2
58%
42%
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
François
Fillon
©Ipsos CEVIPOF -LE MONDE – EEF 2017 - Avril 2017
Total
Would vote for
Benoît Hamon
82%
3%
15%
100%
Would vote for
Emmanuel Macron
45%
24%
31%
100%
Would vote for
N. Dupont-Aignan
24%
39%
37%
100%
Would vote for
Marine Le Pen
28%
24%
48%
100%
24% of likely voters didn’t stayed their intention
15
Not
decided